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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 February 2022, Volume 30 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Research on Excitation Effect among Limit Order Book Events in Chinese Stock Market Based on State-dependent Hawkes Processes
    LIU Zhi-dong, ZHAO Zhi-yuan
    2022, 30 (2):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0337
    Abstract ( 208 )   PDF(mobile) (3589KB) ( 201 )   Save
    In order-driven financial market, the submission and cancellation of market orders and limit orders are often found to be showing non-stationary and agglomerative characteristics.Quantitatively evaluating the exciting relationship between these limit order book events is an essential topic of market microstructure researching, such as the dynamic modeling of the limit order book and the behavioral characteristics of traders.Using all the orders of sample stocks ubmitted by traders in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, high frequency dynamic limit order book is rebuilt and state-dependent Hawkes process model is construoted to analyze the self-excitation and co-excitation effects among various limit order book events.Specifically, two sets of states are built, using bid-ask spread to measure instant market liquidity and queue imbalance to measure buy or sell pressure; and at the same time,2 sets of limit order book events according to the type and the aggressiveness of all the orders. In total, our model is tested under 3 different settings. Empirical results show that, in China’s order-driven stock market,self-excitation effects of limit book events is much stronger than co-excitation effect, and these effects vary significantly under different market states. Classifying market events according to their aggressiveness is much better in reflecting the information feedback loops and trading behavior of traders.
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    Competition Effect and Contagion Effect in Peer-to-peer Lending Industry:Evidence from Problem Platforms’ Explosion
    WANG Zheng-wei, LI Tian-yi, LIAO Li
    2022, 30 (2):  14-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0363
    Abstract ( 171 )   PDF(mobile) (1435KB) ( 148 )   Save
    China’s peer-to-peer lending platforms have been exited or transformed after frequent explosions, however reviewing the history of platforms’ explosions is significant for us to understand the development of early Fin Tech such as peer-to-peer lending platforms and to think about the future development path of Fin Tech. Taking 9,3674 dynamic weekly transaction records of 1700 platforms from January 4, 2015 to December 25, 2016 as samples, the competition effect and contagion effect of explosions are tested in this paper. The results show that:(1) The competitive effect is larger than the contagion effect, reflecting the public’s trust in thepeer-to-peer lending industry.(2) Next, the factors are tested which could affect the intensity of the competitive effect. It is found that the lower the level of competition, the stronger the competitive effect, the influence of “big” platforms’ explosions on the peer-to-peerlending industry is more intense and investors have more confidence in platforms with state-owned background. (3)In the long run, problem platforms’ explosions will reduce the probability of future exploding of the existing platforms.These conclusions provide an important reference for the development of Fin Tech. Government should win the trust of the public and strengthen the supervision of the industry, so as to realize the virtuous circle and sustainable development of Fin Tech.
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    Tail Risk Spillover Effects among Crude Oil Price, Macroeconomic Variables and China’s Stock Market
    ZHONG Wan-ling, LI Hai-qi
    2022, 30 (2):  27-37.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0359
    Abstract ( 159 )   PDF(mobile) (2607KB) ( 92 )   Save
    While the frequent occurrence of extreme risk events since the 2008 financial crisis has created the need for monitoring tail risk timely and effectively, further research on the sources of tail risks in stock markets and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals will help policymakers and regulators to gain a better understanding of the mechanism by which tail risks are generated and transmitted. Therefore, the tail risk spillover effects among China’s stock market and the macroeconomic fundamentals and thus the factors driving the dynamic of tail risk are investigated. The tail risk is measured based on a time-varying POT model proposed by Massacci (2017), and the spillover index model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) and the rolling sample estimation method are combined to study the tail risk spillover effects from the perspective of direction, magnitude and dynamics. The data of Shanghai Composite index, crude oil prices, economic policy uncertainty index and other important macroeconomic variables from January 1997 to August 2019 are employed.
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    The Effect of Market Power in Carbon Market on Emission Abatement Technology Adoption
    ZENG Bing-xin, DING Qing-guo, ZHU Lei
    2022, 30 (2):  38-47.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0773
    Abstract ( 220 )   PDF(mobile) (1720KB) ( 177 )   Save
    With China already committing to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, green low carbon development has become an important theme in the longer term. In this context, the carbon market has become a crucial market-based tool to help achieve China’s climate goals and energy transition. The effect of market power in carbon emission trading market on the diffusion of a new low carbon emissions abatement technology when firms interact in imperfectly competitive output market is investigated. Based on the classical framework proposed by Reinganum, the extension is made by introducing heterogeneous firms to describe firms’ strategic behavior and a two-stage non-cooperative game model is developed. In the first stage, each firm need determine the optimal time to adopt the new emissions abatement technology, taking into account its benefits and costs, as well as its rival’s strategic behavior. The first stage is described as a simultaneous-move game. In the second stage, given the level of abatement technology, each firm makes its own optimal output and emission decisions based on the profit maximization principle. This second stage is described as a leader-follower game. With this framework, through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, the results suggest that firms will delay to adopt the new emissions abatement technology in the presence of market power in carbon market. Moreover, it will induce much later technology diffusion when the output demand is smaller and less elastic. This implies that the technology diffusion in the weak elastic sector may have more barriers than in the strong elastic sector. More theoretical references are provided for the design and optimization of the carbon market to promote the diffusion of low carbon emission reduction technologies. The policymaker should pay more attention to the market structure of sector covered in the carbon market. Furthermore, the regulator can enhance the supervision for the key firms to cope with the side effects of market power.
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    A Study about the Impact of Return’s Skewness on Risk Premium in Chinese Stock Market
    MI Xian-hua, MA Chao-qun, ZHAO Xin-wei
    2022, 30 (2):  48-57.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0593
    Abstract ( 132 )   PDF(mobile) (1334KB) ( 74 )   Save
    As the first fundamental law of finance, the relationship between return and volatility (risk premium) is far from being conclusive,the so-called “Return-Volatility Puzzle”. Financial theory shows a positive relationship, but empirical results tend to be opposite. As we all know, kurtosis, thick tail and negative skewness aretypical featuresof returns. These inherent and endogenous attributes undoubtedly have an important impact on risk compensation.Besides, the non-normal or asymmetrical distributional features can produce ineffectiveness or inaccuracy for those estimators of coefficients with wrong distributional assumptions regardless of linear or nonlinear tests of the relationship.
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    Design of Financial Contract and Learning Mechanism Based on Entrepreneurial Effort and Managerial Effort
    DING Chuan, WAN Bo-lun, WANG Kai-hong
    2022, 30 (2):  58-68.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0216
    Abstract ( 111 )   PDF(mobile) (1681KB) ( 50 )   Save
    In the venture capital, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs both improve the enterprise's profit ability, but comprehensive existing literature, it is argued that studying how to motivate the entrepreneur pay human capital and effort is more important. In order to study how to motivate the entrepreneurs to improve enterprise’s intrinsic value, in this paper entrepreneurs’ effort is divided into entrepreneurial effort and managerial effort. Firstly, the optimal financial contract is designed in the static single-period model, and the effect of two kinds of efforts efficiency on the incentive effect is analyzed. Studies have shown that,incenting entrepreneurs to pay the entrepreneurial effort is more complex than managerial effort, and related to the volatility of the quality of enterprises. Furthermore, venture capitalists’ learning process of enterprise information is added into the dynamic multi-periods model. On the basis of considering the two efforts of entrepreneurs, the influence of learning mechanism on the incentive efficiency is explored in this model. The research shows that in this process, the volatility of the quality of enterprises decreases monotonously, and the incentive effect of contracts becomes more and more significant. Finally, based on the existing literature, parameter values are set and the actual salary level of entrepreneurs is studied with the numerical method. Studies have shown that the addition of learning mechanism will encourage entrepreneurs to reduce the cost coefficient of efforts and improve their entrepreneurial effort efficiency. The research of this paper gives guidance to the individual development direction of entrepreneurs and provides new ideas and theories for improving the governance efficiency of venture capital enterprises.
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    A Comparison of Mechanisms in Private Equity Funds Based on the Bargaining Model
    NI Xuan-ming, SHEN Jia-yu, ZHAO Hui-min, ZHOU Jun
    2022, 30 (2):  69-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2480
    Abstract ( 99 )   PDF(mobile) (1380KB) ( 34 )   Save
    The limited partnership form has taken place of the corporate form and becomes the predominant organizational form of PE funds. The difference of these two organization forms is discussed. A distinct difference between a limited partnership and a corporation is the status of managers/general partners who are responsible for the daily management within the firm: in a limited partnership, general partners have stronger control over the internal affairs of the firm, while in a corporation, managers take orders from the corporation’s shareholders. The bargaining power of managers/general partners may account for this difference and also leads to the different compensation contracts when firms of different forms are founded. Based on the premise that selection of organizational form of a firm is determined by the bargaining power of all parties within the firm, theoretic models are proposed combining Rubinstein bargaining model and principal-agent theory and equilibrium compensation contracts are solved. Reservation incomes are adopted as the measure of bargaining power of each party, and with the increase of managers’ reservation incomes(i.e., their bargaining power) in a corporation, the limited partnership form will gradually replace the corporate form. Under certain conditions, limited partnerships provide compensation contract with higher profit sharing ratio than corporations and thus the limited partnership form shows higher degree of incentive and can better exploit the human capital. A comparison of the two organizational forms is made by theoretic models and provides an explanation of the changes of PE funds in organizational forms.
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    Inter-firm Credit Guarantee Network and Risk Contagion Based on Enterprise Behavior Preference
    WANG Lei, LI Shou-wei, CHEN Ting-qiang, HE Jian-min
    2022, 30 (2):  80-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0787
    Abstract ( 173 )   PDF(mobile) (3178KB) ( 169 )   Save
    In the actual financing process, it is difficult for many firms to obtain all the funds necessary for their own development through the financial system. Firms often obtain gap funds through credit guarantee other than bank borrowing, firm bond or stock, thus forming a complex and close inter-firm network of guarantee circle. However, facing the instability of the market environment and the behavior preference of different firms, firms as the demander of credit guarantee may be inclined to venture capital, which increases the uncertainty of firm operation and the probability of credit default, resulting in frequent problems of guarantee circle. Therefore, in this context, an in-depth analysis of the formation and contagion of credit guarantee risk in guarantee circle will help to optimize the inter-firm relationship of credit guarantee, reduce the default risk of inter-firm credit guarantee and play a benign financing function of guarantee circle under the influence of firm behavior preference.
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    VIX Option Pricing Based on Mean Reverting Model——From the Perspective of Calendar Time and Intrinsic Time
    YIN Ya-hua, WU Heng-yu, ZHU Fu-min
    2022, 30 (2):  94-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1840
    Abstract ( 100 )   PDF(mobile) (2653KB) ( 37 )   Save
    With the acceleration of economic globalization and economic integration, the systemic risk of the financial market is gradually increasing, and the VIX option which allows for avoiding systemic risk has attracted more and more attentions from investors. VIX has the properties of peak thick tail, biases, asymmetric jump, volatility clustering, and mean-reversion. At present, a large number of studies have tried to introduce simple jump or stochastic volatility into the mean-reverting model to price VIX options, which not only has complex model structures but also could not fit the peak thick tail, biased and asymmetric jump.
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    Evolution of Suppliers’ Emission Reduction Behavior under the Order Allocation Rule of Focal Firm
    YU Xiao-hui, XIAO Tiao-jun, DU Jian-guo
    2022, 30 (2):  106-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0024
    Abstract ( 173 )   PDF(mobile) (2722KB) ( 64 )   Save
    Focal firm’s work is usually outsourced to a number of suppliers. Consumers suggest that the focal firm is responsible for suppliers’ environmental performance. Thus, the focal firm’s market demand is affected by suppliers’ environmental performances. This promotes focal firms to stimulate their suppliers to reduce emissions. Allocating orders to suppliers is the focal firm’s regular decision. Thus, there is no need to sign extra contracts if the focal firm stimulates suppliers to reduce emissions through order allocation process. It has been found that the reason why focal firms have the ability to influence their suppliers’ behavior is that they have the power to allocate orders. In this study, an order allocation method that could stimulate suppliers to reduce emissions is designed a for focal firm.
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    Pricing and Coordination Strategy of Fresh Food Supply Chain under the Integration of New Retail Channels
    FAN Chen, ZHANG Qiong-si, CHEN Yi-ming
    2022, 30 (2):  118-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1037
    Abstract ( 215 )   PDF(mobile) (2007KB) ( 135 )   Save
    With the occurrence of the new retail era, online and offline integration has become an inevitable trend in the development of fresh product retail. “Online ordering, offline distribution” is an emerging O2O model combining online and offline resources, retailers are gradually adopting price integration based on logistics cooperation. Channel integration, on the one hand, can directly affect consumer utility and stimulates consumer demand; on the other hand, it can improve the utilization of channel resources and reduce distribution costs. Therefore, how to coordinate the supply chain through contracts, how to influence the supply chain members individually and the entire supply chain system in different levels of channel integration, and how to make optimal pricing and coordinated strategies, have great theoretical and practical significance.
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    Optimization of Joint Delivery of Fresh Products E-commerce and Cold Chain Home Delivery
    REN Xiang-yang, LV Na
    2022, 30 (2):  127-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0107
    Abstract ( 145 )   PDF(mobile) (1661KB) ( 177 )   Save
    With the development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, consumers' demand for fresh products has changed from quantity to quality. Safer, environmental and green products are more and more favored by people, which to a certain extent promotes the development of fresh housing distribution. The traditional ways to obtain high-quality fresh products are limited. The emergence and rapid development of e-commerce provides a good platform for the sale of fresh products on the Internet. It is worth studying the optimization of joint delivery of fresh products e-commerce and cold chain home delivery.
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    Cross-dock Door Assignment and Vehicle Routing Problem of Considering Temporal-Spatial Distance
    FAN Hou-ming, TIAN Pan-jun, LV Ying-chun, ZHANG Yue-guang
    2022, 30 (2):  137-149.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0062
    Abstract ( 122 )   PDF(mobile) (2735KB) ( 60 )   Save
    Aiming at the problem of the temporal-spatial distance and vehicle routing in cross-docking, a model of the door assignment and the vehicle routing optimization is established, which is aiming to minimize the sum of vehicle dispatching cost, transportation cost, time window penalty cost and the operation cost of cross-dock. The improved adaptive genetic algorithm is designed according to the characteristics of the problem, and the initial solution is generated according to the temporal-spatial distance. By comparing and analyzing the examples of different scale, the correctness of the model and the validity of the algorithm are verified. The results show that the algorithm considering the temporal-spatial distance and integrating and optimizing the in-store operation and the out-store vehicle routing problem can effectively reduce the cost of the cross-dock center. The research results expand and enrich the research on the vehicle routing under the cross-docking, which can provide the theoretical basis for the logistics enterprise to optimize the decision distribution scheme.
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    Formulation of Control Scheme for Traffic System
    HUANG Xiao-qiong, HAN Yun-xiang
    2022, 30 (2):  150-155.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0232
    Abstract ( 112 )   PDF(mobile) (1973KB) ( 44 )   Save
    Recently there has been a lot of interest in the train flow management community towards modeling and analysis of the urban rail traffic system. Traditionally, models used in urban rail traffic control and train flow management are based on simulating the trajectories of individual train. Starting from the macroscopic characteristics of the train flow in the road network, train flow rate and regulation measures are introduced on the basis of road network division of urban rail transit network. The premise for this research is that some of the optimization control problems can be addressed by better train flow management without any capacity enhancement. Different kinds of train queues are acquired according to the departure station and the destination station. For different road network spatial distribution structure, the constraint relationships between the input variables and the state variables are presented and the single queue traffic flow control model is established based on the train flow control mechanism. Furthermore, the deterministic traffic flow optimal control model incorporating multi-queue and multi-segment is putforward by incorporating the logic structure of train queues. The traffic flow control process is transformed into the optimal design problem of the control system using specific control objectives and it can provide decision making for the traffic flow scheduling. Finally, experiments on metro line elements are conducted that may have effects on traffic flow, with further discussing on possible improvements. The simulation results demonstrate that the method presented in this paper can provide effective decision making for metro train flow regulation.
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    Support Vector Clustering-based Data-driven Robust Optimization Model for Multi-product Inventory Problem with Cross-selling
    SUN Yue, QIU Ruo-zhen
    2022, 30 (2):  156-168.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1427
    Abstract ( 146 )   PDF(mobile) (3036KB) ( 101 )   Save
    The data-driven robust optimization model for a single-period multi-product inventory problem with cross-selling effect and budget constraint is established under the uncertain market demand. Cross-selling, as an important mutual relationship between items, is rarely introduced into the problem of inventory management. Cross-selling means that when a particular product has been purchased, other related products may also be purchased together due to their unknown interior associations. At the same time, if one of the set of jointly demanded items is out of stock, the sales pattern for the associated items will be altered and demands for the other items in this set may decrease as a result. The key to data-driven robust optimization is the choice of an appropriate uncertainty set which should flexibly adapt to the intrinsic structure of the data, thereby well characterizes the demand probability distributions and ameliorates the suboptimality of solutions. In this study, a support vector clustering (SVC) approach is used to construct the data-driven uncertainty set to which the uncertain demands belong with a certain confidence level. Furthermore, the proposed robust optimization model is transformed into a tractable linear programming model by Lagrange dual method. At last, numerical studies are conducted to compare and analyze the retailer's profit under the SVC-based uncertainty set and the traditional uncertainty sets. Besides, the performance loss caused by the SVC-based data-driven robust optimization method is evaluated, and then the impacts of budget and cross-selling coefficient on the retailer’s profit performance are analyzed. The results show that the SVC-based data-driven robust optimization approach is robust and can effectively restrain the impact of demand uncertainties on the retailer’s profit performance. In particular, although the lack of demand distribution information can incur a certain loss of inventory performance, the loss is very small, which indicates that the proposed SVC-based data-driven robust optimization method can provide effective support for managers to make inventory strategy under demand uncertainties. Some recommendations for performance improvement are proposed. For example, the inventory managers should adjust the regularization parameter appropriately to control the conservatism as well as the complexity of the induced robust optimization problems and should keep a good record of the daily sales data to improve the effectiveness of inventory decisions.
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    Research on Cooperative Strategy of Environmental Regulation among Local Governments from the Perspective of Multiple Pollutants Damage
    LING Xing-yuan, MENG Wei-dong, HUANG Bo, LI Yu-yu
    2022, 30 (2):  169-180.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0129
    Abstract ( 101 )   PDF(mobile) (1952KB) ( 38 )   Save
    Especially in recent years, a single source of emissions is typically comprised of multiple pollutants that also lead to regional and global negative externalities in reality. On the one hand, some pollutants discharged by industrial enterprises during the production process will have a short-term, regional and non-cumulative impact on their source area and adjacent areas. Examples of pollutants causing these impacts include sulfur dioxide, suspended particulates in the air, and odor pollutants discharged in production, which have more local, regional, and negative external influences on the region and adjacent areas. On the other hand, other pollutants discharged through industrial enterprises will increase to existing pollution stocks, and gradually accumulate with long-term global cumulative impact. Examples of pollutants with such negative environmental impacts include greenhouse gases and CFCs, etc. With the gradual accumulation, a series of global environmental problems such as global warming have been caused. Therefore, we should not only pay attention to the short-term regional environmental problems, but also to the long-term global environmental problems. Under this background, considering the different environmental damage caused by multiple pollutants (non-cumulative and cumulative pollutants), the optimal control theory is used to construct a game model for optimal control of transboundary pollution. Firstly, based on Stackelberg game, the dynamic decision-making processes of local governments as leaders and industrial enterprises as followers are analyzed, and the optimal pollutant emissions of industrial enterprises are determined. Subsequently, a game model of optimal control of transboundary pollution in two adjacent regions under non-cooperative and cooperative games is constructed to analyze the environmental governance strategies of local governments, including the optimal environmental protection tax and investment in environmental pollution control, and to explore the dynamic changes of pollutant stocks. Meanwhile, the two game structures are compared and analyzed. By theoretical analysis and simulation result, whether it is non-cooperative or cooperative game between regions, the correlation between the optimal pollutant emission and the proportion of pollutant emission reduction in industrial enterprises is uncertain, mainly depending on its size; the optimal environmental protection tax in each region is positively correlated with the proportion of pollutant emission reduction in industrial enterprises. But under the cooperative game, each region will consider the damage caused by its non-cumulative pollutants to its adjacent areas; each region will increase investment in environmental pollution control; the total revenue of all regions is higher than that of non-cooperative game, and the higher part (cooperative surplus) is affected by cumulative pollutant stock damage and non-cumulative pollutant damage to adjacent areas, but has nothing to do with the damage of non-cumulative pollutants to its own area. Finally, through the analysis and research of this paper, it is expected to provide a certain theoretical basis for local governments to formulate policies for cross-regional cooperation in environmental pollution control.
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    Cooperation Strategy for Supply Chain Considering Add-on Service and Platform’s Marketing Effort in O2O Model
    ZHANG Xu-mei, ZHENG Yan-wen, LI Meng-li, TIAN Yu
    2022, 30 (2):  181-190.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0761
    Abstract ( 125 )   PDF(mobile) (1821KB) ( 76 )   Save
    As online-to-offline (O2O) commerce becomes one of the main shopping ways for consumers, increasing offline service providers begin to sell service through online platform to attract consumers to purchase the service online and consume offline. In the cooperation between offline service providers and online platform, online platform often exerts marketing effort to spur demand. Meanwhile, offline service providers often provide add-on service as well as basic service to satisfy consumers’ heterogeneous demands. However, the existence of add-on service makes the cooperation problem between offline service providers and online platform more difficult.
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    Study on a Cross-shareholding Supply Chain Decision Considering Over-confidence
    WAN Xiao-le, WANG Huan-huan, DU Yuan-wei, MENG Qing-chun
    2022, 30 (2):  191-203.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2121
    Abstract ( 102 )   PDF(mobile) (2328KB) ( 44 )   Save
    Overconfidence, as a typical irrational behavior characteristic, will inevitably affect the decision-making of cross-shareholding supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the decision-making problem of cross-shareholding supply chain with overconfidence. Therefore, a Stackelberg game model of supply chain decision-making with cross-shareholding is constructed between manufacturer and retailer. Based on the overconfidence characteristics of supply chain members, four models are established:in which both manufacturer and retailer are completely rational, only manufacturer is overconfident, only retailer is overconfident, and both of them are overconfident. Finally, the influence of overconfidence and cross-shareholding ratio on the decision-making of supply chain members is discussed, and the conclusions are verified by numerical simulation. The results demonstrate: (1)When the market environment is good, the increase of overconfidence of either party of cross-shareholding will reduce its own profit and increase the profit of the other party; (2)When the market environment is poor, the manufacturer’s overconfidence will lead to the decrease of both sides’ profit, while the retailer’s overconfidence will increase their own profit but damage the manufacturer’s profit; (3) Manufacturers and retailers can adjust the impact of overconfidence on profits by changing the cross-shareholding ratio.
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    Optimal Dynamic Advertising Strategies with Presence of Probable Product-Harm Crisis
    WANG Wei-hao, MA De-qing, HU Jin-song
    2022, 30 (2):  204-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0253
    Abstract ( 85 )   PDF(mobile) (2033KB) ( 32 )   Save
    It is inevitable for any company to faceProduct-Harm Crisis which could inflict damage on goodwill.The deep causes of Product-Harm Crisis root in the design and production phases before the products are launched and cannot be changed or influenced by the firm.Therefore, it aims to explore the optimal dynamic advertising strategies when supply chain members envision the occurrence of Product-Harm Crisis by formulating a dynamic advertising model with the occurrence process of crisis. Using the Bellman continuous dynamic programming theory, the optimal advertising and cost-sharing strategies of both manufacturer and retailer under centralized, decentralized and cost-sharing pattern are obtained respectively.The main conclusions and managerial insight obtained from this paper are as follows:
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    Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion Model Based on Process Division
    ZHOU De-qun, DING Hao, ZHOU Peng, WANG Qun-wei
    2022, 30 (2):  217-225.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0307
    Abstract ( 143 )   PDF(mobile) (2425KB) ( 75 )   Save
    Identifying the mechanism and characteristics of renewable energy technology (RET) diffusion is the basis for the planning and management of RET development. Based on the influences of information dissemination, technology economy, as well as social acceptance etc. on RET diffusion, RET diffusion process is divided into Technology Learned, Benefit Calculation, and Technology acceptance in accordance to the situation’s changes of investors. Then a mathematical model is constructed to present the RET diffusion process, which reflects how potential investors transform to final investors. Then the characteristics of RET diffusion are studied, including the limitation of diffusion rate, the decline of policy efficiency, and the differences among sectors. Different drivers of RET diffusion are discussed through a case study. Based on this research, theoretical supports and policy implications are provided for promoting the diffusion or RETs.
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    Impacts of IT-enabled Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Communities on Service Quality of Cross-border E-commerce
    YANG Xiao-rong, DU Rong
    2022, 30 (2):  226-233.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1062
    Abstract ( 102 )   PDF(mobile) (1405KB) ( 52 )   Save
    With the rapid development of the cross-border e-commerce, consumers’ complaints on the service quality of cross-border e-commerce have increasingly grown. In order to explore the strategy to improve cross-border e-commerce service quality, a model is proposed that captures the impacts of IT-enabled knowledge sharing in virtual communities on the service quality of cross-border e-commerce, which includes dimensions such as ease of use, reliability, responsiveness and empathy, based on the perspective of customer perception. Questionnaire surveys are conducted with the consumers who have the experience of cross-border online shopping. AMOS21 are used to analyze 458 collected questionnaires. Results indicate that customers with different levels of knowledge sharing have significant differences in the perception of ease of use, responsiveness, reliability, and empathy of cross-border e-commerce. In addition, IT-enabled knowledge sharing in virtual communities significantly affects ease of use, responsiveness, reliability, and empathy of cross-border e-commerce. Based on our findings, managerial implications are given so that managers can improve cross-border e-commerce service quality through IT-enabled knowledge sharing in virtual communities.
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    Research on Value Co-creation of Service Interaction Oriented to Fuzzy Requests from Customers
    LI Xiao-dong, GONG Ben-gang, ZHANG Chen, XU Yu
    2022, 30 (2):  234-243.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0932
    Abstract ( 87 )   PDF(mobile) (1643KB) ( 38 )   Save
    In service encounters, fuzzy requests from customers bring many challenges to service interaction management. By dynamically portraying the service interaction value co-creation process, it provides a specific perspective for understanding and responding to fuzzy requests. A value co-creation model is built to simulate the process of single-time and multiple-time service interaction on the spot of fuzzy requests. The results show that four typical scenarios of value co-creation are identified through three core judgment conditions. Meanwhile, under the condition of multiple-time service interaction, the service ability of employees who free response to fuzzy requests is averagely uncertain to increase and is variant among employees, while the employees who are randomly regulated or trained by companies can improve their ability as a whole and provide better service quality. This study is the first to elucidate the co-creation process under the abnormal service interaction fluctuation, and illustrates the effectiveness and necessity of the intervention on employees’ coping with fuzzy requests.
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    Moran Evolutionary Analysis of Enterprise’s Quality Improvement Investment Decision under Consumer Feedback
    SUN Shu-hui, ZHU Li-long
    2022, 30 (2):  244-255.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0678
    Abstract ( 95 )   PDF(mobile) (2449KB) ( 61 )   Save
    In recent years, with the development of social economy, people’s living standards and quality of life have gradually improved, and the quality requirements for products have become higher and higher. Therefore, when making a decision on quality improvement investment, the enterprise faces two choices: 1) choose to produce high-quality products to obtain quality advantages, or 2) choose not to make quality improvement investment to obtain low-cost advantages. Consumers will make different feedbacks on products of different quality, which will affect the profit of the enterprise, and then influence the fate of the enterprise. For the enterprises in different competitive environments, how to make product quality improvement investment decisions is very important.Based on the consumer feedback mechanism, consider the evolutionary trajectory of quality improvement investment strategies for N production companies that produce the same products. Each production company has two strategic options after weighing the value perception of consumer feedback and the cost of additional quality improvement (quality-advantage strategy or low-cost strategy). Based on the fixation probabilities of the Moran process, the probability of a successful intrusion of a quality-advantage strategy or a low-cost strategy in a limited production enterprise population is calculated. By comparing the fitness of the two strategies, and the individual fixation probability and the probability of neutral mutation, the conditions under which the strategy is dominant under strong and weak selections are obtained respectively. It is found: 1) When there are relatively few production enterprises, the quality-advantage strategy will occupy the entire group regardless of the cost of improving quality level as long as consumers have feedback on the quality level. 2) When the production enterprises' perception of consumer feedback is much higher than the cost of additional quality improvement, the quality advantage strategy is the winning strategy. 3) When the perceived effect of consumer feedback is slightly higher than the cost of additional quality improvement, under strong selection, the quality-advantage strategy is dominant, and under weak selection, the dominant strategy depends on the population size.4) The attention degree of enterprises towards consumer feedback depends on the market positioning of their products. Quality improvement policy advice and guidance for companies will be provided that aim to maintain or occupy different market shares.
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    Two-stage DEA Evaluation Method Based on Resource Sharing and Subsystem Interaction——Evaluation of Scientific Research Performance for “First-Class” Universities in China
    YANG Min, FEI Xi-yue, WEI Yu-qi, LIANG Liang
    2022, 30 (2):  256-263.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0616
    Abstract ( 132 )   PDF(mobile) (1297KB) ( 76 )   Save
    Due to the complex competitive environment, interactive systems under shared resources are becoming more and more common, so it is necessary to develop a new method to measure the efficiency of these systems and subsystems. Aiming at the performance evaluation of complex systems, a two-stage DEA evaluation method is proposed for resource sharing and subsystem interaction. On the basis of measuring the overall efficiency of the system, the Stackelberg game idea is used to construct the model to obtain the unique subsystem efficiency. Finally, the method is applied to empirically analyze the performance of the research system for 40 “First-Class” universities in China. And the empirical results reflect certain scientific research system characteristics and verify the effectiveness of the method.
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    Optimal Planning of the Electric Vehicle Routing and Battery Charging Problem with Self-pickup and Door-to-door Delivery Service
    GUO Fang, HUANG Zhi-hong, HUANG Wei-lai, YANG Chao
    2022, 30 (2):  264-275.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0044
    Abstract ( 142 )   PDF(mobile) (1220KB) ( 64 )   Save
    With the development of environment awareness and substantial government support, the electric vehicles get rapid development in the field of logistics. Due to the scattered customers, the complex traffic situation in the city and many uncertainties in the service process, the cost of “last mile” delivery service remain high. An electric vehicle routing and station location problem is present under the diversified service strategies. Setting up service stations in the area with dense customers, and the customers in the service scope of the opened station should go to the station to pick up their goods by themselves. The rest wait for door-to-door delivery service. In addition, based on some practical considerations, it is required that the vehicles that are replenished for the service stations cannot provide distribution services for customer nodes at the same time. With diversified service strategies combining customer self-picking (within service radius) and home delivery service (outside service radius), and the mathematical model of integer programming is established, which can help to improve the service efficiency and decrease operational cost. The above strategies can not only help logistics enterprises improve the utilization rate of delivery time and reduce operating costs, but also meet the personalized requirements of customers on the delivery time and improve the level of customer satisfaction. The problem is formulated as an integer programming model. Electric logistics vehicles can be recharged at service stations, where customers can pick-up their parcels. The objective function minimizes the total cost including the construction cost of service stations, and the total of travel costs for the customer and the service station routes.
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    Study on the Cluster Network Embedding Process of New Technology-Oriented Enterprises Based on Tripartite Evolutionary Game
    LU Yan-qiu, LIAO Ai-hong
    2022, 30 (2):  276-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0189
    Abstract ( 109 )   PDF(mobile) (2125KB) ( 99 )   Save
    New technology-oriented enterprises’ embedding into cluster network is not only a shortcut for the rapid growth of enterprises, but also an opportunity to enhance the competitiveness of cluster network. The evolutionary game method is used to established the tripartite game model among new technology-oriented enterprises,enterprises already embedded in the cluster and government. The evolutionary stability strategy of the three participants is analyzed, and the results are further verified by numerical simulation analysis. The results show that the evolutionary stable strategy is influenced by the cost, the support from the government, the incentive value, the penalty value and the participants’ initial willingness to participate. Enterprises focuses on the long-term benefits brought by networking advantages rather than the benefits of a single collaboration. In the initial stage of forming cluster network, the participation of enterprises already embedded in the cluster is more conducive to the successful embedding of new technology-oriented enterprises than that of the government. In the later stage of forming cluster network, when enterprises’ willingness to participate is high, government can gradually withdraw its support for enterprises’ network establishment.
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