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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 January 2022, Volume 30 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Research on Influence Mechanism of Credit Ratings between Different Payers
    YAN Yan, LI Bo
    2022, 30 (1):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0632
    Abstract ( 317 )   PDF (1216KB) ( 408 )   Save
    In 2010,China’s first investor-pay rating agency, China Bond Rating was established. Since investor-pay rating agencies have been established for only a short time in China, currently there is little domestic literature studying the differences and causes of differences between investor-pay and issuer-pay credit rating. On top of that, the foreign relevant literature mainly focuses on how the investor-pay and issuer-pay impact the rating results, but doesn’t discuss whether there is a difference between the investor-pay’s and issuer-pay’s impact on different types of bonds. In this paper, differences between investors’ payment and issuers’ payment rating are studied. Based on reputation effect and competition mechanism, game theory is applied to analyze the issuer-pay rating agencies’ catering to issuers. Moreover, the rating data of credit asset-backed securities and corporate bonds are used as samples to empirically test the rating difference and its causes by descriptive statistics,univariate analysis and multiple regression analysis. The findings of the research show that the result of the investor-pay credit rating is significantly lower than issuer-pay credit rating. The differences of rating results under different payment models are influenced by whether it is the first rating and the market share of the issuers. The main reason of the difference is that the issuer-pay rating agencies’ catering to issuers. The difference between investor-pay and issuer-pay credit rating in corporate bonds data is significantly higher than the credit asset-backed securities data, indicating that different payment method has a greater impact on corporate bonds. The differences between investor-pay and issuer-pay credit rating in China are comprehensively studied, which will make investors and regulators have a clearer understanding of the credit rating between investor-pay and issuer-pay rating agencies, and provide important reference for the further improvement and development of China’s credit rating industry.
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    The Measurement and Trend Analysis of Domestic and International Dural Circulation
    CHEN Quan-run, XU Jian, XIA Yan, JI Kang-xian
    2022, 30 (1):  12-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2045
    Abstract ( 465 )   PDF (2245KB) ( 454 )   Save
    Entering a new stage of development, China will quicken its pace in fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.The foundational question is the measurement of the relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations. The added value dependence on domestic final demand and foreign final demand is introduced as an indicator of the relative degree of participation in the domestic and international circulations. Based on the World Input-Output Tables from WIOD, the relative level and evolution trend of relative degree of participation in domestic and international circulations in China from 2000 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. In addition, the comparative analysis is carried out between different countries and different sectors.
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    Research on the Relationship between Northward Capital, Baidu Index and Stock Market in Time and Frequency Domain——Based on the Perspective of Higher Order Co-moments
    LIN Juan-juan, TANG Yong, ZHOU Xiao-liang, ZHU Peng-fei
    2022, 30 (1):  20-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0085
    Abstract ( 215 )   PDF (4045KB) ( 205 )   Save
    With the continuous promotion of the internationalization of China’s financial market, the tendency of northward capital volume published every day is closely watched by more and more investors. Is it the trend of northward capital or the change of investors' attention that plays a greater role in affecting the mainland stock market? And what is the relationship between the above two and the stock market? This paper takes the northward capital, Baidu index and the CSI 300 index as the research object, which data is selected from 2016-12-5 to 2019-7-5. In order to examine the impact of northward capital volume and investors’ attention on the stock market accurately and consider the time-frequency characteristics of stock market, The EEMD method is used to decompose and integrate the above three variables, and then the multivariate GARCHSK model is used to model the high frequency, medium frequency and low frequency sequences respectively. Finally, the time-varying higher order co-moments obtained from the model are analyzed, so that the dynamic relationship between the northward capital volume, investors’ attention and the stock market can be discussed respectively. The empirical results show that there is a time-varying relationship between Northward capital, investors’ attention and the mainland stock market. The higher order co-moments has gradually become an important way to link the risk contagion and volatility between the mainland stock market and the northward capital, and the correlation has gradually increased. While the correlation approach between investors' attention and mainland stock market is less, and their relationship is uncertain. The changes of short-term mean and variance of the mainland stock market are more dependent on northward capital, while the changes of long-term asymmetry and extreme risk probability are more significantly related to investors’ attention to relevant information. The correlation approach and time-varying impact of northward capital and investors’ attention on the mainland stock market from different frequencies are discussed, which provide references for the design and research of future interconnection policies.
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    Influencing Mechanism of Macroeconomic Factors on RMB Exchange Rate Bidirectional Fluctuations: An Empirical Research from the Perspective of Multiple Policy Goals
    LIU Zi-xi, , GONG Jian
    2022, 30 (1):  32-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0240
    Abstract ( 139 )   PDF (1489KB) ( 149 )   Save
    Since 2011, although the RMB exchange rate starts to implement managed bidirectional floating regime, the increase in the range and frequency of exchange rate fluctuations means that the bidirectional spillover effect of domestic and foreign monetary policies has been increased, which affects the domestic economy and the confidence in holding RMB. The effects of structural changes in exchange rate regimes comprehensively are analyzed via introducing policy dummy variables, in order to find out the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic factors on RMB exchange rate bidirectional fluctuations, which is significant to maintain financial stability.
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    The Ambiguity Premium in China’s A-shares Market——The Analysis from Intra-day High Frequency Data
    HU Zhi-jun, LING Ai-fan, YANG Chao
    2022, 30 (1):  42-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0317
    Abstract ( 157 )   PDF (1750KB) ( 171 )   Save
    Embedding the ambiguity uncertainty into the Choquet expected utility model, and using uncertainty model framework proposed by Izhakian(2020), the uncertainty expectational utility model with ambiguity uncertainty is established using the ambiguity averse function and perceived probability, and the measure of ambiguity of risky market is obtained and the uncertainty premium is decomposed into risk premium and ambiguity premium. The evidence from the high frequency data in Chinese stock market are done. This is the first work to check the ambiguity premium in the A-share market of China.
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    Dynamic Investment Policy with Time-inconsistent Entrepreneur
    LUO Peng-fei, DUAN Yi-zhu, ZHANG Yong
    2022, 30 (1):  54-63.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0457
    Abstract ( 151 )   PDF (2675KB) ( 182 )   Save
    Investment decision is the classical problem in corporate finance, which studied in the literature. Myers(1997) find that in contrast to pure equity finance, leverage finance results in underinvestment problem due to delaying investment. While, Jensen and Meckling(1976)leverage finance leads to overinvestment problem because of accelerating investment. After that, a large number of articles study the investment problem of corporate under different situations, e.g. Mauer and Sarkar(2005), Hackbarth and Mauer(2012) and Sundaresan et al.(2015) among many others. The above literature assume that the agent is time-consistent preferences, i.e. the discount rate is constant. However, in fact, the agent is time-inconsistent preferences (see Thaler and Shafrin, 1981). The factor is incorporated dynamic policies about economic and finance problem, for example, Grenadier and Wang (2007), Liu and Yang (2015), Tian (2016) and so on. There is no paper considering the impact of time-inconsistent preferences on investment decision in a growth option model. Based on this, the investment decisions under time-inconsistent preferences is explored in this paper.
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    A Study on Competitive Pricing and Emission Reduction Strategies of Automobile Manufacturers under the “Double Credits” Policy
    LU Chao, WANG Qian-qian, ZHAO Meng-yuan, YAN Jun-lin
    2022, 30 (1):  64-76.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1566
    Abstract ( 254 )   PDF (2039KB) ( 384 )   Save
    The production and trading modes of automobile manufacturers have been changed by the “double credits” policy, which is followed by a new context about automobile pricing and emission reduction issues. The seller is composed of two different manufacturers (M1 produces both oil-fueled automotive(OFA)and new energy vehicles (NEVs), while M2 produces only NEVs). By taking consumers’ low-carbon preference into consideration, the market needs and OFA’s fuel consumption are negatively correlated, and consumers have a lower price elasticity of demand for low-carbon products, thus, the market demand is affected by the dual effects of consumers’ low-carbon preference and automobile’s price. The methodology of mathematical modelling is equipped under two scenarios of that M1 adopts emission reduction strategies or not, the pricing strategies and emission-reduction decisions of automobile manufacturers under the policy of “double credits” are explored, as well as the effects of NEV credit value of each NEV and the ratio requirements of NEV credit on the decision-making of government and enterprises are discussed. Furthermore, the changes of the pricing and emission reduction decisions made by the “double credits” policy, consumers’ low-carbon preference and the energy-saving and emission reduction measures adopted by manufacturers, are tested by using the methodology of example analysis under different scenarios.
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    GAS-SKST-F Model and Its Application in High Frequency Multivariate Volatility Forecast
    LU Wan-bo, KANG Jing-hao
    2022, 30 (1):  77-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1105
    Abstract ( 173 )   PDF (1104KB) ( 127 )   Save
    Modeling conditional dependency structure of financial assets through time-varying covariance is of great significance to capital risk management, option pricing and optimal portfolio. With the advent of high-frequency data, realized multivariate volatility model is widely applied in the financial field in recent years. Among the observation-driven models for time-varying parameters, the clear advantage of the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model is that it exploits the complete density structure and likelihood information rather than theconditional moments information.
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    Pricing and Innovation Strategies of Dynamic Innovative Competition-Cooperation System under the Framework of Consumers’ Heterogeneous Preference
    QU Xin-chi, HOU Gui-sheng, SUN Xiang-yan
    2022, 30 (1):  88-99.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0005
    Abstract ( 181 )   PDF (3481KB) ( 210 )   Save
    Business innovation is an important source for social development. However, it is a slow evolutionary process for enterprises to convert from conservative production to innovative development. During the process competition and cooperation between potential innovative companies and conservative non-innovative companies will arise. To be specific, competition is caused by market competition between companies, while cooperation, in most case, results from joint decisions between companies to control prices and output. In the competition-cooperation game between potential innovative companies and non-innovative companies, consumers have subjective understanding and judgment on pricing and innovation levels of products from different companies, therefore, the market demand for products is influenced by consumers' heterogeneous preference. If so, how will the consumers’ heterogeneous preference structure affect the product pricing, supply and innovation decisions of enterprise in the innovative competition-cooperation system?
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    Research on the Design of Double-agent Incentive Contract under Fairness Preference
    WANG Xian-jia, CHEN Jia-yu
    2022, 30 (1):  100-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0362
    Abstract ( 194 )   PDF (1391KB) ( 264 )   Save
    The problem of mechanism design with multiple agents is usually discussed in terms of the competitive relationship between agents.Moreover, it is assumed that agents’ behaviors are not affected by emotional factors and agents’ preferences only pursue the maximization of their own benefits without considering the benefits of others. However, in practice, there is a large number of possible cooperation between multiple agents,and the agent’s behavior is affected by the emotion factor and the agent adopts the fair preference.Considering that human behaviors are affected by emotional factors, the principal-agent problem is discussed when two agents with fair preference choose competitive or cooperative behaviors under the condition of information asymmetry, the conditions are pointed out where the principal incentives agents to competition or cooperation, the ways of income distribution after agents choose cooperation are proposed, and it is discussed show the information rent generated by asymmetric information is affected by fairness preferences and behavior choice.The following conclusions are drawn from different preferences: i. agentsboth have higher optimal effort level in the case of competition, ii. the conditions under which the principal incentives agents to compete or cooperate change with the different fairness preferences, iii.the bigger the coefficient of competition, the income per unit of output, and the greater the intensity of pride, the bigger the reduction of information rent;the bigger the intensity of jealousy and sympathy, the smaller the reduction of information rent,iv.increased uncertainty of the external environment will promote the cooperation of agents. The research conclusions can be applied to solve two kinds of principal-agent problems that the principal needs to motivate the agent to compete or cooperate in the actual social production and life.
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    Inventory Decisions and Coordination Mechanism for Dual-Channel Supply Chain under Carbon Tax Policy
    CAO Yu, YI Chao-qun, WAN Guang-yu
    2022, 30 (1):  111-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0284
    Abstract ( 188 )   PDF (1524KB) ( 271 )   Save
    With the rapid development of e-commerce and information technology, more and more manufacturers sell products directly to consumers through online channels as well as through traditional channels. However, competition between channels could be caused by the introduction of manufacturers’ online channels, especially when a manufacturer sells the same product in both channels. When the same product is sold in different channels, there will be product substitution issue, and when one channel is out of stock, the substitution is more significant. In other words, when one of the channels is out of stock, some consumers of that channel will switch to another channel to buy products. Meanwhile, in recent years, the global warming caused by the greenhouse effect has received increasing attention from the government, the public and scholars. Governments all over the world have formulated and implemented relevant low-carbon policies to curb emissions, among which carbon tax policies are one of the effective mechanisms. As more and more countries and regions have been implemented carbon tax policies, companies have to consider the impact of carbon tax policies when making operational decisions. Due to the differences in carbon emissions in the dual-channel supply chain, companies in the dual-channel supply chain need to consider the impact of carbon taxes. Based on those, a dual-channel supply chain model consisting of a single manufacturer and a single retailer is established under a carbon tax policy. On the basis of considering the stock-out conversion between channels, the issue of dual-channel inventory competition between channels under wholesale price contracts and two-way revenue sharing contracts is studied, and a combined contract mechanism consisting of two-way revenue sharing contracts is designed and payment mechanisms are transfered to achieve a win-win situation for manufacturers and retailers and ensure the effective execution of the contract. It is found that under the wholesale price contract and the two-way revenue sharing contract, as the carbon emission difference between the traditional retail channel and the online channel increases, the manufacturer should adjust the wholesale price and the ratio of revenue sharing to control the inventory levels at the dual channels. The optimal base-stock level at the online channel increases in the unit-product carbon emissions at the retail channel. The optimal base-stock level decreases in its own unit carbon emissions. Further analysis shows that the effect of the differences in carbon emissions between dual channels on the optimal wholesale price and the optimal base-stock levels at both channels also depends on out-of-stock conversion rate and carbon tax rate.
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    The Optimization Model and Algorithm for Storage Location Assignment Problem in Unmanned Warehouse System
    LI Zhen-ping, JIA Shun-shun, BU Xiao-qi, WU Ling-yun, ZHANG Guo-wei
    2022, 30 (1):  124-135.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1266
    Abstract ( 214 )   PDF (1203KB) ( 308 )   Save
    Unmanned warehouse is an automatic storage system appeared in recent years. The storage allocation strategy is one of the main factors affecting the efficiency of unmanned warehouse system. Based on the scene that there might be only part of the storage locations empty in the replenishment stage of the unmanned warehouse system, the optimization model and algorithm for storage location assignment problem of unmanned warehouse system is studied. A mixed integer programming model of the storage location assignment problem is formulated to maximize the sum of the correlation degrees among items stored on the same shelves. Based on the greedy algorithm and neighborhood search algorithm, a two-stage algorithm is designed for solving the model. In the first stage, a greedy algorithm is used to obtain an initial feasible solution, in the second stage, the neighborhood search heuristic algorithm is designed to optimize the initial feasible solution. An computer generated example is used to verify the optimization effect of neighborhood search algorithm, the results show that the objective value of solution being optimized by neighborhood search algorithm is increase by at least 27%. Several small-scale examples are used to analyze the approximation ratio and running speed of the two stage heuristic algorithm, which verifies the fast and effective of the algorithm. The model and algorithm of this paper not only solve the storage allocation problem with parts of the storage locations being empty on the shelves, but also can be used to solve the problem with all the storage locations being empty on the shelves. So the application of this method is broader, which can be used as the core model and algorithm for designing the unmanned warehouse management information system.
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    Optimal Dynamic Pricing for Multi-products with Consumers’ Reference Effects and Strategic Behavior
    LIU Hai-ying, BI Wen-jie
    2022, 30 (1):  136-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1248
    Abstract ( 202 )   PDF (1363KB) ( 213 )   Save
    Perishable or seasonal products generally have a normal price at the beginning stage and a significantly reduced or discounted price toward the ending stage. Therefore, the strategic consumers will have a choice - either to buy in the first stage for fresh products or wait to purchase the products at a discounted price in the second stage. In this paper, the multi-product dynamic pricing is taken into account the reference effect and the strategic consumers. Due to the presence of the reference effect, the consumers’ utility function is a combination of the direct utility and the reference utility. On the other hand, the strategic consumers will choose between buying at the first stage or wait to buy at the second stage. This behavior will change the demand functions of the two stages. At the same time, the reference price is at store-level and it is being updated along with the change of the period by an exponential smoothing model. The price level of the whole store and the product’s historical price will influence the current demand. Therefore, a two-stage multi-period dynamic pricing model is built for multi-product. Based on supermodularity and complementarity theory, an analytical solution is derived for the steady state prices, and the properties of the optimal price path are revealed. The monotonic convergence property of the steady state price suggests that when the initial reference price is higher or lower than steady state reference price, the optimal pricing strategy is similar to skimming pricing strategy (i.e., penetration pricing strategy).
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    Research on Joint Optimization of Equipment Maintenance and Buffer Stock by Considering Insufficient Buffer Stock
    LIU Qin-ming, LIU Wen-yi, YE Chun-ming
    2022, 30 (1):  143-153.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0941
    Abstract ( 116 )   PDF (1211KB) ( 117 )   Save
    By investigating the actual production status of two-equipment pipeline production system (2M1B system) in a petrochemical enterprise, with the continuous consumption of buffer stock, there are mainly two kinds of buffer stock: sufficient buffer stock and insufficient buffer stock at the end of preventive maintenance of equipment. In the research of preventive maintenance of equipment in 2M1B system with buffer stock, the situation of insufficient buffer stock neglects. Thus, the joint optimization of equipment maintenance and buffer stock in 2M1B system in view of insufficient buffer inventory are studied in this paper.
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    Infrastructure Network Restoration Decision Considering Restoration Interdependency after Emergency
    REN Ai-jun, FENG Geng-zhong, TIAN Jun
    2022, 30 (1):  154-164.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0137
    Abstract ( 133 )   PDF (1697KB) ( 142 )   Save
    Modern developed social systems rely heavily on the complex infrastructure networks, after a large scale extreme event, restoration interdependencies which added the high complication to restoration decision occur among tasks during the restoration efforts. The restoration design and scheduling decision of infrastructure system are studied in the condition of the coexistence of several kinds of restoration interdependencies after a large scale extreme event. Based on network flow theory, a mixed integer programming formulation is developed integrating restoration design and scheduling decision with the goals of cumulative restoration performance maximization and cost minimum, it incorporates the three distinct restoration interdependency classes: sequence precedence, effectiveness precedence, and options precedence. And a heuristic algorithm for solving the model with NP-Hard complexity is proposed, it converts infrastructure network in the original problem into connected graph, then induced subgraphs are generated for each vertex corresponding to the node of unsatisfied demand based on the connected graph, and each induced subgraph contains the network nodes. Finally, a data set of damaged components coming from the real infrastructures in Changsha is generated based upon ice and snow disaster, then, the solution about restoration design and scheduling decision of the damaged components of infrastructure system is obtained through solving the model, and further the effect of decision period length on the overall cumulative restoration performance is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the model has the feasibility of the application in the restoration decision of infrastructures after an emergency, (2) the length of decision period has a significant impact on the overall cumulative restoration performance which is greatly enhanced as the difference of the length of decision period and restoration time reduces, and the total cost exists a minimum within the range of the length of the decision period, (3) as the number of work groups increases, the overall cumulative restoration performance maintains growth with the rate of growth decreasing, while the total cost decreases with the rate of decreasing reduction.
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    The Impact of Risk Aversion of An Unreliable Supplier on Supply Chain Performance
    WANG Tian, ZHENG Zhong
    2022, 30 (1):  165-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0276
    Abstract ( 188 )   PDF (1242KB) ( 208 )   Save
    Supply and demand are the two sides of the supply chain and are the main sources of supply uncertainty. How to manage demand uncertainty in the supply chain optimization decision-making process has been widely concerned.However, there are relatively few studies focusing on supply (capacity) uncertainty of supply-side. Our paper is based on two points. On the one hand, capacity uncertainty is quite prevalent for agricultural products, the supply of fresh produce, and assembly systems for large equipment such as airplanes or ships. For example,the production capacity of crops is mainly depending on the difference in temperature and seed quality in the current season. The production capacity of seafood products depends on the timing of fishing vessels choosing the sea and the selected salvage area. In the large-scale assembly system, the original parts and raw material suppliers in the upstream of the supply chain are at risk in terms of on-time delivery and batch quality, resulting in great uncertainty in the assembly system capacity. On the other hand, suppliers with capacity uncertainty are often risk averse. Uncertain production capacity will not only affect the decision-making process and performance of downstream retailers, but also indirectly affect the suppliers themselves through the order quantity of retailers. Therefore, how to manage the risk-averse supplier’s optimal decisions with capacity uncertainty is of great significance. In view of the above problems, a supply chain system consisting of a risk-averse supplier with random capacity and a risk-neutral retailer is focused on. By using the classical Value-at-Risk (VaR) approach as a constraint of the supplier’s optimization problem, the supplier’s wholesale pricing, the retailer’s selling pricing and ordering quantity decisions are studied in a Stackelberg game. The upper and lower-bounds of wholesale price are obtained, on the basis of this, the optimal wholesale price under random capacity and VaR constraint is analyzed. Additionally, the risk-averse results with the results are compared under risk-neutral. In the case of sufficient low (reasonable) profit goal, high risk-averse may increase the wholesale price, low risk-averse does not affect the wholesale price. In the case of very high profit goal, the risk-averse supplier will lower his wholesale price to induce a higher order quantity from the retailer.
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    Pricing and Service Decisions in a Closed-loop Supply Chain with Online Sales/collection and Offline Services
    YAN Yan-chao, MA Zu-jun
    2022, 30 (1):  175-184.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1254
    Abstract ( 259 )   PDF (1812KB) ( 182 )   Save
    With the rapid development of E-commerce, more and more manufacturers sell their products directly through online channels. Moreover, online channels have also great advantages in collecting used products. Many manufacturers have begun to collect used products online and remanufacture the returned products, which not only saves resources, but also improves enterprises’ social image. In this context, many manufacturers carry out online sales and collection, then remanufacture and resale the returned products, thus forming a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC). While the online sales/collection provides convenience to consumers, its offline service quality and efficiency have also become the key to its success. Therefore, more and more manufacturers choose to cooperate with professional offline service providers who offer consumers services such as product experience, distribution, return and maintenance, thereby forming a cooperative relationship between manufacturers' online sales/collection and service providers’ offline services.
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    Closed-loop Supply Chain Network Equilibrium Analysis under Carbon Tax Policies
    YANG Yu-xiang, GUAN Qian, ZHANG Bao-you, MENG Li-jun, YU Yan-na
    2022, 30 (1):  185-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1152
    Abstract ( 158 )   PDF (2538KB) ( 198 )   Save
    With the increase of greenhouse gases emissions and climate change, many governments face growing pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Thus, they implement various low-carbon policies such as carbon cap, carbon cap-and-trade, carbon tax etc., in order to encourage enterprises to adopt low carbon technology and low carbon supply chain management. Hence, it is meaningful to study operation optimization of supply chain network under carbon policies. In this paper, a closed-loop supply chain network including multi manufacturing/remanufacturing plants and multi demand markets is given. Two carbon tax policies including flat tax policy and progressive tax policy are considered. The carbon taxes paid by plants under the two policies are given. The equilibrium conditions of the members in the network under different policies are analyzed. Two closed-loop supply chain network equilibrium models are developed. A Modified Projection Method is proposed. Finally, numerical examples are shown to analyze the effect of carbon tax rates for different policies on new product production outputs, forward and reverse product transaction quantities, demands, prices, investment for carbon emission abatement, carbon emissions, carbon taxes and profits of members in the network. It is found that, with the increase of carbon rate under the two policies, the transaction quantities of forward and reverse product, demands decrease gradually, thus the transaction prices of product increase. Moreover, the increase of carbon rate bring less carbon emissions, more carbon tax paid by firms, hence the profits of firms decease greatly. In addition, it is found that the firms under progressive tax policy pay less carbon tax than one under flat tax policy, hence they can obtain more profits.
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    A Model of Cruise Cabin Allocation and Pricing Based on Revenue Management
    ZHAO Li-xiang, XIE Zi-yi, YANG Yong-zhi, GAO Zhen-di, JI Ming-jun
    2022, 30 (1):  196-205.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0853
    Abstract ( 118 )   PDF (1462KB) ( 87 )   Save
    The world cruise tourism industry has been developing rapidly in the past 50 years. As a kind of leisure tourism with high fixed cost, how to make cruise companies obtain higher profits in limited voyages has attracted only a small number of scholars to study. Cruise industry has the same typical revenue management characteristics as hotel and aviation industry. Whether the cruise industry can achieve the same success as hotel and aviation industry by using revenue management theory to improve the income of cruise companies remains to be studied.Based on the idea of revenue management, the issue of cruise cabin allocation and pricing is studied. Combined with the personalized characteristics of the cruise operations, such as the diverse composition of consumer groups, a longer pre-sale cycle and the limitation of the number of life-saving seats and child care staffs.(1)Without loss of generality, an integer programming model was established to determine the quantity and price of various cabin types for sale in different pre-sale stages in the pre-sale cycle, in order to maximize the profit of the cruise company. (2) Because the traditional pre-sale system only records the actual pre-sale data, it does not consider the demand that has arrived but has not been met, that is, the part whose demand is greater than the number of cabin booking limits are subject toType-ΙCensoring. In order to obtain the deterministic demand data and apply it to the model proposed in this paper, an EM algorithm based on Weber distribution is designed to solve the unconstrained estimation of demand involved in the model. The accuracy and convergence of the algorithm are proved by numerical examples.(3) This paper compares the integer programming model and the traditional unified pricing model, and compares their ability to improve revenue. The two models use the same demand data, and the results show that the proposed integer programming model can obtain higher revenue and show a significant annual growth trend. In summary, the research in this paper can provide a scientific decision-making tool for the operation and management of cruise companies.
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    Evaluation on R&D Incentive Policies of Renewable Energy Power Generation Based on Social Welfare
    CAI Qiang, WEI Gui-wu, HUANG Jing, XIA Hui
    2022, 30 (1):  206-221.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1510
    Abstract ( 157 )   PDF (3526KB) ( 121 )   Save
    Normally, R&D investment strategies for new technologies of renewable energy power generation have different effects on enterprise values and consumer surplus in an opposite manner resulting in a challenge on the scientific formulation of the R&D incentive policies for social welfare-based renewable energy power generation. For the asymmetric enterprises intending to monopolize the emerging markets of clean energy by the R&D of new technologies for renewable energy power generation, it is required to choose the option game and the social welfare model in combination with investment opportunities and analyze the social welfare and related subsidy policies affecting the changes of such social welfare as well as the dynamic characteristics in many other factors through numerical modeling. In addition, the corresponding recommendations for the R&D incentive policies of social welfare-based renewable energy power generation have been proposed. The results indicate that if the aim is to maximize the social welfare, in the application of each combination of the R&D subsidiesfor new generation technologies and the feed-in tariff schemes, the greater the R&D capability gap between enterprises are, the greater the initial value of new technologies for renewable energy power generation and the higher the R&D cost will be. In such case, the government should encourage renewable energy enterprises to cooperate in R&D, otherwise the competition is required to be encouraged. With the increase of the feed-in tariff, it is better to greatly encourage the competitive R&D in enterprises. Both the R&D subsidies and the feed-in tariff will improve socialwelfare within certain limits. The internal comovement relation among the optimal investment time, portfolio of power price subsidy policy and social benefits of renewable resource power R&D investment is revealed so as to provide valuable decision-making reference for the government’s effective incentive and management of renewable energy power.
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    Modeling the Line Transport Capacity for An Intercity Railway Based on the Average Minimum Headway
    SHEN Jie, YANG Xin, WU Jian-jun, SUN Hui-jun, GAO Zi-you
    2022, 30 (1):  222-229.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0785
    Abstract ( 106 )   PDF (2232KB) ( 96 )   Save
    In the context of rapid development of traffic integration among urban agglomeration, a calculation model is proposed to calculate transport capacity of intercity railway lines. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of intercity railway, an integer linear programming based calculation model is formulated. Similar to the average minimum headway method, the proposed model calculates the total occupied time in train timetable by combining two adjacent trains into an operation train group. The objective of the model is to maximize the total number of operation train groups, where the total occupied time of train in train timetable is constrained to a certain range. Second, based on the real data of the Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed calculation model, and verify the superiority over the traditional calculation method. The model greatly simplifies the calculation steps of transport capacity of the intercity railway, which makes the calculation more efficient. Moreover, it can contribute to improve the transport capacity of intercity railway and its operation services.
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    The Impact of Energy-saving Information Exposure on Green Consumption Behavior——An Empirical Study of Large-scale Text Data from E-commerce Data Platforms
    WANG Zhao-hua, LU Bin, WANG Bo
    2022, 30 (1):  241-251.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0169
    Abstract ( 230 )   PDF (1585KB) ( 278 )   Save
    With the rapid growth of Chin’s green consumer groups, green consumption has shown great environmental value while driving consumption upgrades. The impact of energy-saving information exposure on green consumption behavior has also attracted scholars’ attention. Data-driven and model-driven methods have been combined. Natural language processing technology has been adopted to construct energy-saving information exposure indicators, and propensity score matching and quantile regression havebeen used to conduct empirical research on 5,889 household appliances consumption and comment data on an e-commerce platform in China. It has been indicated that the overall energy-saving information exposure of e-commerce platforms in China is not high. The marginal effect of energy-saving information exposure on the sales of energy-saving home appliances shows a monotonous upward trend, and the inflection point of information redundancy has not yet appeared. At the same time, inverted U-shaped change in the impact of home appliances with different sales scalesto energy-saving information exposure has been found, which has a greater impact on home appliances with medium sales scale. Finally, the adjustment effect of the “platform effect” on energy-saving information exposure has been further verified, which provides a reference for the research on green consumption behavior based on large-scale multi-source heterogeneous data.
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    Research on Dynamic Reputation Mechanism of Online Review Return
    WEI Jin-rui, WANG Jin-wei
    2022, 30 (1):  252-262.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0383
    Abstract ( 155 )   PDF (1522KB) ( 148 )   Save
    The rewards on favorable comment can be regarded as a transaction for reputation that consumers give favorable comment and sellers give cash back as a reward. While current academic research mainly focuses on the reputation mechanism of online reviews or the identification strategy for the spam reviews, little attention has been paid to the reputation mechanism of the certain comments with the character of bribe generated by the rewards on favorable comment.
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    Organization’s Optimal Alliance Strategy in Open Innovation: A Knowledge Chain Perspective
    ZHANG Hua, GU Xin, WANG Tao
    2022, 30 (1):  263-274.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0362
    Abstract ( 169 )   PDF (3319KB) ( 220 )   Save
    Prior research on open innovation has found that extensive cooperation with diversified innovators is necessary for organizations to acquire external knowledge and enhance their innovation performance. Innovation alliance is a critical means of establishing and maintaining cooperative relationships. However, understanding the processes and outcomes of inter-organizational cooperation is not sufficient for explaining the formation mechanism of innovation alliance and sustained open innovation activities. Instead, some core partners usually act as important roles in the organization's open innovation practices. In the context of open innovation, how to choose appropriate partners to set up the innovation alliance is an important issue for organizations. Based on the perspective of inter-organizational knowledge transfer, a knowledge chain is constructed in this paper which is composed of a knowledge source, a knowledge transformation intermediary, and a third-party information service agency. A multi-stage sequential game model is designed by using the intellectual property contract as a cooperation mechanism, and the impact of the organization's alliance strategy on knowledge creation and innovation performance is analyzed.
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    Priority Pricing Based on the Expected Waiting Time for Heterogeneous Customers
    LIU Jian, XU Yong, ZHANG Xun, SHEN Ming-lei, LIU Si-feng
    2022, 30 (1):  275-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1184
    Abstract ( 207 )   PDF (1758KB) ( 185 )   Save
    Due to customer heterogeneity (waiting costs per unit time are different), service providers usually introduce classification service to customers. However, when customers choose to enter a queuing system, they tend to have an expectation on waiting time in psychology, which will influence customers’ behavioral and lead to the flow of customers in the queuing system, which will affect the revenue of service providers. In this paper, the customer heterogeneity and classification service based on a stylized non-preemptive M/M/1 system are considered, and the priority pricing for maximizing the revenue of service provider is studied when customers have expectation on waiting time. First, the impact of the expectation waiting time of the priority customer is analyzed on the revenue and the corresponding priority pricing, and then the influence of the expectation waiting times of both the priority customers and the regular customers is studied on revenue and the related priority pricing. The findings of this paper are as follows: When only priority customers hold an expectation waiting time in queuing, the service providers should increase the priority pricing based on the expectation waiting time of the priority customer to achieve more revenue. When both the priority customers and the regular customers hold an expectation waiting time in queuing, the service providers still should enhance the priority pricing based on the expectation waiting time of the priority customer to increase revenue. However, if the basic fee for regular customers to obtain service is small or the service provider pays more attention to the revenue of one-time consumption by customers, then the service provider should reduce the proportion of regular customers and increase the proportion of priority customers in the system by utilizing the expectation waiting time of regular customers for getting more revenue; if the basic fee for regular customers to obtain services is high, the service provider pays more attention to the revenue of multiple consumption by regular customers or the service providers value regular customers, then the expectation waiting time of regular customers causes corporate revenue to continue to decline. At this time, if the service provider can adopt a discount strategy (certain discount strength) for high-value regular customers, and improve their satisfaction, and eliminate their psychological expectation of waiting time, it can further increase the revenue. The findings provide significant and practical insights for service providers who value the expected waiting time of customers in service pricing.
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    Commission Sale Strategies of Agricultural Products under Preservation Effort
    CHEN Jun, CAO Qun-hui, DAN Bin
    2022, 30 (1):  230-240.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0829
    Abstract ( 8 )   PDF (1411KB) ( 7 )   Save
    With the diversification of sale mode and the intensification of multi-channel competition, many traditional dealers and distributors have fallen into the operation bottleneck and gradually transformed to agricultural services. The growth of the service market promoted the service mode innovation of agricultural product sale.However, as a useful supplement to the distribution mode, the commission sale mode is rarely adopted in the cooperation of production and marketing for agricultural products in China.In view of the fact that commission mode specifically includes pay service feemode and regarded as buyout mode, so it is an important decision for the manufacturer and the affiliate to decide which mode to sell the products and under what conditions to reach the consignment agreement. To this problem, under the assumption of preservation efforts affecting the freshness and loss, two stackberg game models are constructed with pay service fee mode and buyout mode, then some comparative analysis are taken about the optimal prices, commission periods and preservation effort levees. On this basis, the best selection of commission sale mode is analyzed as well as the commission agreement conditions for the producers and affiliates.The conclusion shows that the service fee and negotiated price are the key factors influencing the commission strategy.If the negotiated price is high enough, the producer and the affiliate are inclined to adoptthe pay service fee mode; If the negotiated price is in the middle level, the producer and the affiliate tend to adopt the regarded as buyout mode;If the negotiated price is too low, the producer and the affiliate can not reach a consignment agreement, but the outcome of negotiation is more likely to approach the regarded as buyout mode.In addition, both service fee contract and negotiated price contract cannot coordinate agricultural supply chain.
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