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    Stock Index Prediction Based on LSTM Network and Text Sentiment Analysis
    Xiaojian Yu,Guopeng Liu,Jianlin Liu,Weilin Xiao
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (8): 25-35.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0084
    Abstract1488)   HTML127)    PDF(pc) (868KB)(2144)       Save

    Investment decision-making can be a complex process, influenced by various factors, including investor behavior preferences. Therefore, it's important to understand and capture investor sentiment for predicting future changes in the stock market trend. In this regard, machine learning algorithms can be helpful in analyzing investor sentiment in the financial market. It aims to construct a predictive model for stock indices using an LSTM network and text sentiment analysis in this paper.To begin with, a web crawler program is used to collect text comments on individual stocks in the East Money Stock Bar. The text data are analyzed using the SVM sentiment classification algorithm to construct a market sentiment index that reflects investor sentiment. Additionally, the LSTM deep learning network is used to extract the features of the market sentiment index and make short-term predictions on the SSE 50 index.Various traditional time series analysis models and machine learning models are compared. The results show that the LSTM neural network has higher accuracy and precision in financial time series prediction. After incorporating market sentiment features, the accuracy and precision of the LSTM network prediction results can be improved. This indicates that investor market sentiment is highly effective and applicable for market index prediction. It is also found that error correction of the LSTM network prediction results can effectively optimize the prediction results.Overall, a new method is provided for understanding investor sentiment and predicting future changes in the stock market trend. It is hoped that our research results can provide useful reference and guidance for financial investors and analysts.

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    Review of Research on Economics and Management Based on Generative Artificial Intelligence
    Xiangpei Hu, Yaxian Zhou
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 76-97.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1390
    Abstract1035)   HTML56)    PDF(pc) (2541KB)(1830)       Save

    Using 87 high-quality Chinese management journals and 1177 high-quality English management journals as the basis for literature retrieval, a bibliometric analysis is conducted on research related to Generative Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Management. The analysis covers journal distribution, author and institution collaboration networks, and keyword-based literature analysis, organized according to the four subfields under the Management Science Department of the National Natural Science Foundation of China: Management Science and Engineering, Business Administration, Economic Sciences, and Macro Management and Policy. The findings include: 1) There are differences between Chinese and English-language literature. Chinese literature focuses on information resource management and library and information science. Collaborative relationships are primarily influenced by disciplinary, institutional, and geographical similarities. In contrast, English literature spans a wider range of journals, and institutions. However, consistent research outputs from cross-institutional collaboration have yet to emerge. Strengthening cross-disciplinary, cross-regional, and cross-institutional collaboration remains a need for both Chinese and English research. 2) In both Chinese and English literature, studies are mainly concentrated in the subfields of Macro Management and Policy, as well as Management Science and Engineering, with a strong emphasis on empirical and applied research. Business Administration and Economics have relatively fewer studies, and literature focusing on generative artificial intelligence technologies and associated risks is also limited. Furthermore, English-language literature exhibits a broader range of research themes and application areas than Chinese literature, with higher research volumes and greater thematic focus. Future research should emphasize the integration of generative artificial intelligence with management tools, theoretical theories, and complex management scenarios, as well as on addressing specific management research paradigms.

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    Marketing Transformation in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
    Feng Shi, Yang Yang, Yun Yuan, Jianmin Jia
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 111-123.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1913
    Abstract951)   HTML76)    PDF(pc) (908KB)(1600)       Save

    The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has catalyzed new corporate practices and marketing models, transforming the way companies interact with consumers and revolutionizing the theory and practice of marketing science. To reveal the full picture of this transformation, the gradual three-stage process of AI-driven marketing transformation is reviewed and mapped out, spanning from its emergence and development to its deepening, based on representative literature in the interdisciplinary field of AI and marketing science in recent years. A theoretical analysis framework of "AI Cognition—AI Empowerment—AI Interaction—AI Integration" is then proposed. Finally, combined with this framework, future research directions are outlined, including constructing more explanatory AI adoption models, developing fair AI pricing algorithms, exploring the psychological mechanisms of consumers in AI interactions, and designing effective human-machine collaborative management mechanisms, with the aim of promoting theoretical development and practical applications in the interdisciplinary field of artificial intelligence and marketing.

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    Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renminbi Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS Model
    Xinyu Wu,Haibin Xie,Chaoqun Ma
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (8): 1-14.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1654
    Abstract913)   HTML50)    PDF(pc) (726KB)(1336)       Save

    Financial volatility modeling and forecasting has always been a hot topic in financial econometrics, due to its great importance for derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. Typically, GARCH model is used to describe the dynamics of financial volatility. However, the GARCH model uses squared return to measure volatility, ignoring the information of intraday price movements. An alternative approach for measuring volatility is to employ the intraday range, which is calculated using the intraday high and low prices. Apparently, the intraday range makes full use of the intraday price information (extreme value information), which is a more efficient volatility estimator than the squared return volatility estimator.A classical model for describing the dynamics of the intraday range is the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model, which produces more accurate volatility forecasts than the return-based GARCH model. Despite the empirical success of the range-based CARR model, it cannot capture the impact of macroeconomic variables (macroeconomic information) on financial volatility. In recent years, the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) keeps rising, due to a series of events including the US-China trade war and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Intuitively, high EPU may affect investors' investment decisions and hence financial market. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, which is of great relevance for investors and policy-makers and would have a close relation to EPU. As the currency of the world's second largest economy, renminbi plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Since the implementation of renminbi exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the renminbi exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations. Accurate prediction of the renminbi exchange rate volatility has become increasingly important. To our knowledge, there are few studies investigating the impact of EPU on the renminbi exchange rate volatility.Inspired by the return-based GARCH-MIDAS model, this paper extends the classical range-based CARR model to the range-based CARR-MIDAS model to model the renminbi exchange rate volatility. The model framework explores the intraday extreme value information and allows the low-frequency macroeconomic variable (macroeconomic information) such as EPU directly impacts the volatility via the long-run component of volatility and the flexible MIDAS structure.Using the monthly global EPU index and daily US Dollar against Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate data, the impact and predictive ability of the EPU on USD/CNY exchange rate volatility are investigated relying on the range-based CARR-MIDAS model with the EPU (CARR-MIDAS-EPU). The empirical results show that the EPU has a significant positive impact on the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. That is, an increase in the EPU level predicts higher level of the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. The range-based CARR-MIDAS-EPU model produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the USD/CNY exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and GARCH-MIDAS-EPU model as well as the range-based CARR model and CARR-MIDAS model, for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This finding suggests that the range and EPU contain valuable information for forecasting USD/CNY exchange rate volatility. The robustness analysis based on the alternative global EPU index as well as the out-of-sample forecasting windows further supports the above conclusion.

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    International Comparison of China's Green Bond Development: Evaluation, and Determinants Exploration
    Boqiang Lin,Tong Su
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (10): 66-75.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0043
    Abstract667)   HTML19)    PDF(pc) (902KB)(595)       Save

    As a targeted financing channel for green and low-carbon projects, green bonds have developed rapidly around the world, but there are some different specific conditions for each country. However, the existing literature lacks an assessment and analysis of green bond development at the national level. This knowledge gap obstructs understanding the development trend of China's green bonds from a global perspective. So, it is crucial to comprehensively evaluate the global green bond development level and detect the determinants behind the differences among economies.In this paper, the green bond issuance record data of 62 countries or regions from 2014 to 2020 are collected to conduct comprehensive empirical research. With the application of the principal components analysis method, a systematic assessment of the green bond development in various economies is conducted firstly; then, some national clusters are obtained through the K-means cluster algorithm, which suggests some heterogeneities and homogeneities for different economies; To detect the rationales for the global differences in the development of green bonds, multiple linear regression, and ordinal Probit model are utilized sequentially.The empirical results show that the different economies display different levels and speeds in developing green bonds. Three categories of determinants could affect the development level of green bonds in a country, namely macroeconomic fundamentals, financial system, and low-carbon transition environment. Regarding specific determinants, the intensity of targeted green bond promotion policies is the most critical driving force for the development of green bonds.Some targeted policy recommendations are provided for China, in the field of capturing the development tendency of global green bonds, optimizing the development path of green bonds, and promoting green bonds to support the carbon-neutral actions. Additionally, this paper fills the current research blank in evaluating the development of green bond, whose conclusions can effectively support further exploration of this emerging domain.

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    Risk Science: A New Interdisciplinary Science
    Jianping Li, Weixuan Xu, Dengsheng Wu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 98-110.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1264
    Abstract644)   HTML69)    PDF(pc) (699KB)(1104)       Save

    As an important technical tool in today’s economy and society, risk analysis has shown its significant application value in many fields such as energy, finance, natural disasters and emergency response. However, risk analysis has not been widely regarded as an independent science, and its related theories and methods are still scattered in different subject areas, lacking systematic integration and systematic development. In addition, the traditional risk analysis method based on probability and loss modeling is relatively narrow, and it is difficult to fully and accurately reflect the diversity and complexity of risks in modern society and system. In view of this, based on the new ideas and theories emerging in the field of risk analysis in recent years, the construction of a new interdisciplinary science of “risk science” is advocated. Through in-depth analysis of the connotation and development process of risk science, a systematic framework system of risk science is put forward, and the research progress and future trends are summarized in six sub-fields of risk understanding, risk identification, risk assessment, risk perception, risk communication and risk control. It aims to integrate cutting-edge risk management concepts, integrate knowledge and methods in the field of risk analysis and management, and then promote the construction of a more complete and systematic risk management system to cope with the increasingly complex and changeable risk challenges in this paper.

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    Platform Supply Chain Management: New Challenges and Opportunities
    Weihua Liu, Zhe Li, Shangsong Long, Yugang Yu, Baofeng Huo, Yanjie Liang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 165-181.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1643
    Abstract627)   HTML50)    PDF(pc) (5037KB)(1519)       Save

    The continuous emergence of new-generation information technology has driven the deep integration of supply chain and platform economy, and supply chain management has stepped into a new stage of platform supply chain. The development of platform supply chain, while driving the evolution and transformation of business model, is also reshaping the boundaries between different market participants, which raises numerous challenges for academics and practitioners. Despite extensive research on platform supply chain has been conducted in recent years, a systematic literature review on this field is still lacking, especially regarding how to address the complex challenges in platform supply chain management and how to seize new opportunities in future development.Driven by reality and theoretical needs, a combination of descriptive statistics and content analysis is adopted to conduct a comprehensive and systematic review of the relevant research in the field of platform supply chain management in the core set of Web of Science and CNKI database from 2013 to 2023. Through quantitative analysis of literature from the past decade, the research hotspots and development trends in this field are identified, and further content analysis is conducted from both problem-oriented and method-driven perspectives. Based on the logic of “why-what-how”, the issues of platform supply chain management are summarized that have been addressed in the past decade from three angles: “why promote the construction of platform supply chain-what are the obstacles to promoting the construction of platform supply chain-how to promote the construction of platform supply chain”. The research challenges are then discussed, and opportunities for future research are identified.It is found that the research challenges in platform supply chain management include the complexity of collaboration and integration, the dual dilemmas of technology and data, the pressure of ecological design and innovation, and the governance dilemma and regulatory issue. Based on these findings, new opportunities of platform supply chain management in the future are proposed from four aspects: new environment, new technology, new ecology and new governance, which are platform supply chain collaborative operation under complex environment, platform supply chain operation decision-making considering technology empowerment, platform supply chain operation mode innovation under ecological background, and platform supply chain governance with multi-subject participation. It is hoped that new perspectives for theoretical innovation and deeper research in academia are provided and reference and practical guidance are offered for enterprises and organizations in coping with real-world challenges.

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    A Review of Consumer Preference Mining Based on Online Reviews
    Zhongmin Pu, Chenxi Zhang, Zeshui Xu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 209-220.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.0483
    Abstract563)   HTML45)    PDF(pc) (1439KB)(1250)       Save

    Online reviews reflect customers’preferences for various product features. Mining this preference information can help potential consumers better understand the products, leading to more informed purchasing decisions, while also providing valuable insights for product improvement, market positioning and promotional strategies. In recent years, scholars have conducted extensive research on the mining of customer preferences from online reviews, but there is a lack of systematic literature review in this field. To systematically understand the current status, limitations, and future research trends, a literature review is conducted using bibliometric analysis and content analysis. Initially, the publication of relevant literature and keyword clustering are quantitatively analyzed. Based on the process of mining consumer preferences from online reviews, this literature is scrutinized and categorized into three research themes: identification, analysis, and application of customer preferences derived from online reviews, thereby constructing a systematic research framework. Subsequently, a comprehensive analysis of each theme is conducted from both current status and limitations. Finally, future research trends are proposed, focusing on enhancing the accuracy of customer preference identification, exploring personalized and dynamic preferences, expanding the application domains of preferences and promoting the integration of multimodal information.

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    A Review of Research on Asset Return Prediction Based on Machine Learning
    Xingyi Li, Zhongfei Li, Qiqian Li, Yujun Liu, Wenjin Tang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 311-322.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1099
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    Accurately predicting asset returns is essential for informed investment decision-making and maintaining financial market stability. With the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and computing technologies, machine learning (ML) has demonstrated notable advantages in handling high-dimensional data and modeling complex, nonlinear relationships. A comprehensive review of ML applications in asset return prediction, encompassing stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and bonds is presented. The existing research on algorithm selection, model construction, and performance evaluation is systematically sumarized. This review begins by examining the origins and significance of asset return prediction, challenging the efficient market hypothesis and contributing to behavioral finance by analyzing irrational investor behaviors and sentiments. A spectrum of ML methods is then explored, ranging from traditional linear approaches to advanced deep learning and large language models (LLMs), highlighting their ability to address the complexities of financial markets. Techniques such as LASSO and Ridge regularization effectively manage high-dimensional datasets, while neural networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) capture long-term dependencies in time series data. Moreover, LLMs like BERT and GPT have shown promise in sentiment analysis and processing textual data, further improving predictive accuracy. The findings reveal that ML methods, particularly ensemble learning and deep learning models, consistently outperform conventional statistical models. For instance, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Machines achieve superior out-of-sample accuracy, and integrating LLMs with financial text data opens new avenues for sentiment-based return prediction. The data sources employed, including historical prices, macroeconomic indicators, financial news, and social media sentiment, enable comprehensive model evaluations under diverse market conditions. By identifying current research gaps and future directions, this review underscores the importance of balancing predictive accuracy with model interpretability, as well as expanding the scope of asset classes examined. In summary, the analysis provides a holistic perspective on ML applications in asset return prediction, emphasizing their potential and challenges. This work informs investors, policymakers, and researchers, facilitating more effective strategies and decisions in the ever-evolving financial landscape.

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    The Basic Characteristics and Key Scientific Problems of Technology Strategic Supply Chain
    Shanlin Yang, Xiaojian Li, Hangjie Mo, Qiang Zhang, Xiaoan Tang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 1-13.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.01.001
    Abstract518)   HTML50)    PDF(pc) (1444KB)(664)       Save

    The manufacturing of advanced, complex products, such as atomic bombs and artificial satellites, as well as highly integrated technological projects like lunar landings and rocket recovery, constitutes a highly complex, systemic process. In order to support the disruptive innovation and development of such system engineering as high-end complex product manufacturing, the basic concept of technology strategic supply chain is proposed.A thorough examination of the formation and development of this supply chain can address key scientific questions, such as how high-end complex products are created and evolve, the underlying drivers of this process, and the fundamental principles governing them, thereby facilitating the original creation and innovative development of these products. The complex systemic processes involved in the manufacturing of high-end complex products is first reviewed. Then, the concept of the technology strategic supply chain is defined based on the supply-demand relationship among science, technology, engineering, and industry. Based on an analysis of the typical characteristics of the evolution of technology strategic supply chains, the following four major scientific issues about technology strategic supply chains are explored: the formation mechanism and dynamic evolution, factor space and collaborative optimization, resilience design and risk management, and operational mechanisms and efficiency enhancement. Finally, strategic insights is offered for constructing technology strategic supply chains, focusing on innovation talent, innovation ecosystems, cutting-edge technologies, leading enterprises, and management mechanisms, with the goal of advancing China’s technology strategic supply chain and contributing to the high-quality development of China’s science, technology, and economy.

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    Digital Human Marketing: Theoretical Framework, Research Progress, and Future Directions
    Ziqiong Zhang, Yuchan Wu, Qiang Ye, Shaohui Wu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 259-272.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1738
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    Digital humans are virtual entities that replicate human appearance, behavior, and cognition processes, capable of interacting in both virtual and real worlds. The emergence of digital humans has created new opportunities for brand image building and consumer engagements, accelerating the shift from traditional digital marketing to a hybrid model that integrates both virtual and real elements. Despite growing interest from scholars and practitioners, significant gaps remain between theoretical research and practical applications in digital human marketing, which need to be addressed. 213 English-language articles from the Web of Science core collection and 216 Chinese-language articles from the CNKI database are analyzed. The external and internal characteristics of digital humans are first explored, identifying three theoretical foundations of digital human marketing: individual cognition, information processing, and emotional interaction, and summarizing four key dimensions of its effectiveness. Based on these analyses, two mediating mechanisms are identified: cognitive responses and emotional responses, and outline three boundary conditions that affect the effectiveness of digital human marketing from the perspectives of consumers, corporations, and environment. Finally, unresolved issues in digital human marketing research are discussed and insights into potential future directions for advancing this field are provided.

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    Modeling of Complex System Management Scenarios Driven by Big Data: Techniques and Processes
    Haiyan Wang, Zhaohan Sheng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2025, 33 (1): 22-33.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.2083
    Abstract487)   HTML34)    PDF(pc) (1658KB)(491)       Save

    In order to break through the complexity integrity of complex system management activities, based on the characteristic that management activities generate and evolve scenarios at any time point in the past, present, and future, using scenarios as a starting point, modeling complex system management scenarios to reproducing the past scenarios, reconstructing the current scenarios, and predicting the future scenarios of complex systems are used to provide practical guidance for complex system management activities. Based on the theoretical similarity between big data and scenarios, the concept and connotation of big data-driven complex system management scenario modeling are analyzed and it is clarified that big data-driven complex system management scenario modeling is the concept of big data-driven implementation of complex system management scenario modeling. Starting from the scenario dataset composed of big data collected or recorded through observation or experimental methods, reverse modeling is carried out. Six key technologies are proposed for this modeling process, including scenario structuring, big data transformation of scenario data, kernel scenario extraction, scenario cultivation, scenario verification, and federated modeling. A specific modeling process is designed, including exploratory analysis-conceptual scenario construction-data scenario construction-kernel scenario construction-computational scenario construction-scenario generation and verification, providing a basis for the implementation and application of scenario modeling in complex system management.

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    Research on theDual PlatformPricing Strategy for Ridesharing Enterprises Based on Multiple Agents: Take Didi and Huaxiaozhu as Examples
    Xiaochao Wei,Guiyan Jiang,Yanfei Zhang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (10): 156-170.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0886
    Abstract485)   HTML7)    PDF(pc) (6437KB)(527)       Save

    In order to improve market penetration and meet the differentiated needs of passengers, ridesharing enterprises explore the “dual platform” operation mode on the basis of the existing single platform. The multi-agent simulation and Hotelling model are integrated to construct a “dual platform” pricing simulation model for ridesharing enterprises. Among them, the Hotelling model is combined to analyze the impact of vehicle service quality, vehicle loyalty, and passenger price sensitivity on the “dual platform” pricing of enterprises under joint pricing strategies, and further it is compared with independent pricing and monopoly pricing strategies. At the same time, a multi-agent model considering individual dynamic behavior rules is designed using computational experiments to simulate the operating scenario of ridesharing enterprises in Repast, Explore the optimal pricing strategy. It is found that: when the service quality of new platform vehicles is low or passenger price sensitivity is low, enterprises should not implement a “dual platform” strategy; If enterprises implement the “dual platform” strategy, they should adopt a joint pricing strategy; Under the “dual platform” joint pricing strategy, vehicle service quality, vehicle loyalty, and passenger price sensitivity will all affect platform pricing behavior. It provides theoretical guidance for optimizing operational strategies of ridesharing enterprises in this article.

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    Research on Dual Channel Dynamic Pricing of Community Fresh Food Supply Chain from the Perspective of Competition
    Lin Pan,Xiajing Xu,Rongting Zhou
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (7): 300-310.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1506
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    In view of the characteristics of perishability, freshness and loss of fresh food, the influence of time, price and freshness are considered on the demand of traditional channels and community fresh food e-commerce channels, as well as factors such as preservation cost and inventory cost. The dynamic equilibrium models of fresh food community food suppliers and retailers are established by using differential variational inequalities. Key findings are as follows: First, fresh food has a dynamic pricing cut-off point in its sales life cycle. Suppliers and retailers can adopt different pricing methods according to the dynamic quality change characteristics, so as to realize the improvement of profits; secondly, in the dual-channel fresh food supply chain, enterprises can control the fresh-keeping costs and inventory costs of fresh products based on big data and the characteristics of residents’ online shopping, and make pricing decisions, inventory planning and allocation for products in different regions, thereby reducing the need for fresh food products. Loss and waste due to expired food. Finally, the dynamic price discount strategy of suppliers and retailers' respective channels is analyzed through numerical example simulation, which provides a basis for suppliers and retailers to make decisions.

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    Different Shareholding Strategies on the Operation Decision of New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain
    Cong Liu, Jie Liu, Tongyuan Wang, Yongtao Song, Benrong Zheng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (11): 92-102.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0064
    Abstract472)   HTML14)    PDF(pc) (1130KB)(243)       Save

    In recent years, many NEV (new energy vehicle) manufacturershave collaborated with battery suppliers to vigorously promote the technology of NEV product. For example, in 2017, BMW signed a $117 million battery-production contract with Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL), the world largest battery manufacturers. After that, the CATL has signed several development and supply contracts with NEV manufacturers (such as, Toyota, Chang an et al.). However, the stability of collaboration is challenged by the innovation cost, opportunity behavior and conflicts interest, which lead to a low innovation effectiveness.In view of the difficulties of the manufacturers and distrust with the suppliers in NEV supply chain, the shareholding strategy is introduced into the NEV supply chain. Considering whether the shareholding strategy is introduced and who holds share in the investments, the game theory and operational research optimization methods are embraced to develop the mathematical models for different scenarios. Firstly, a game model is built in which the manufacturers and supplier do not collaborate in innovation and this model is treated as a benchmark model for comparison. Secondly, a game model is adopted in which the battery supplier holds shares of NEV manufacturer. Then, a game model is developed in which the NEV manufacturer holds shares of battery supplier. Finally, the situation of NEV manufacturer and battery supplier hold share with each other is designed.In order to draw some valuable conclusions, the models are analyzed through numerical analysis, focusing on the relationship between the shareholding strategy and decision-making and innovation activities.Our findings show that the decision of boththe NEV manufacturersandbatterysuppliers is affected by the proportion of shares. In the longitudinal shareholding strategy model, the battery endurance and vehicle quality are positively affected bythe proportion of shares. Besides, both the wholesale price of the battery and the selling price are positively affected bythe proportion of supplier’s shares,and are negatively affected bythe proportion of NEV manufacturer’s shares. Furthermore, it is found that the supplier prefers the cross-shareholding strategy since he can gain more profit than that under the other shareholding strategies. However, for the manufacturer, he chooses the cross-shareholding strategy only when his shareholding ratio is low and the supplier's shareholding ratio reaches a certain level.

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    Research on Government Subsidy Model of Dual-sales Channel Closed-loop Supply Chain
    Wenbin Wang,Ye Liu,Shiyuan Quan,Luosheng Zhong,Jia Lv
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (7): 258-269.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1474
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    In today’s society, a large number of waste electrical and electronic products increase dramatically. If these waste products cannot be effectively recycled, it will not only bring greater harm to the environment, but also make the production cost of the enterprise high. The Chinese government implements a subsidy policy to encourage the development of the recycling industry. Although the government subsidy policy has a positive effect on the recycling of waste electronic products by enterprises, the government is facing the problem that the subsidy amount cannot make ends meet. How to choose the subsidy object to achieve the optimal benefit of the limited subsidy amount is urgently needed to study.Therefore, a closed-loop supply chain game model with different government subsidies is constructed under dual sales channels composed of a manufacturer, a retailer, and a recycler, and the government’s choice of different subsidy objects on supply chain members’ decisions, supply chain members’ profits, consumption surplus and the impact of social welfare is analyzed. The correctness of the conclusions is verified through data simulation on the basis of reference to relevant literature and enterprise research.Research shows:(i) the best government subsidy pattern is that simultaneously subsidize manufacturers and collectors, allocate approximately equal subsidies to both manufacturers and collectors, and appropriately implement as many subsidies as possible for unit product when consumer surplus and social welfare are optimal; (ii) there is a unique subsidy ratio that maximizes consumer surplus, manufacturers and retailers profit, and product prices when unit product subsidy is fixed. Moreover, the profit of collectors and the collection rate are higher than the situation where the government subsidizes manufacturers separately and without government subsidies under this ratio; (iii) when the market size is greater than the threshold, the government subsidizing manufacturers and collectors at any ratio can reduce the direct sales price, the wholesale price and retail price, and increase the collection rate; (iv) improving the intensity of competition between dual sales channels and expanding the remanufacturing cost advantageare both beneficial to increase the collection rate.Some management suggestions are provided for the government, manufacturing companies and waste product recycling companies. For the government, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the market scale and recycling scale of the product when choosing subsidies. For manufacturers, it is possible to reduce the cost of product remanufacturing through technological innovation or improved management. For recyclers, they can reduce recycling costs, increase the recycling rate of waste products, and increase recycling profits through technological innovation and narrowing the scope of business operations.

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    Overnight Information and Option Pricing Model
    Sicong Cheng,Tianyi Wang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (9): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0905
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    The fact that most assets are not traded around the clock raises a natural decomposition of the daily return. The intraday return covers the price movement between open and close, while the overnight return covers the price movement between the previous close and current open. Previous literature documented that overnight information has a significant impact on financial activities. It can help explain the market anomalies and improve the volatility forecasting accuracy. However, there is little research investigating the effects of option pricing. In this paper, the daily log returns are decomposed into intraday and overnight components and a new model that extends the Heston-Nandi GARCH framework to a bivariate structure is proposed to describe the two return processes simultaneously. Such decomposition is different from those with high-frequency data (such as semivariance-based good-bad volatility framework) as we only require daily frequency data. Using the variance-dependent pricing kernel, a closed-form option pricing formula is derived and the pricing performance of SSE 50 ETF options is assessed. The empirical results using SSE 50 ETF options from 2015 to 2019 show that distinguishing the overnight component from daily returns can potentially reduce the pricing errors, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The results enrich the current literature on return decomposition by adding a piece of option pricing evidence and call for more research on option pricing in this new direction.

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    Research on Employee Turnover Prediction Model Based on the Portrait
    Hongxu Yan,Shunkun Yu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (9): 303-312.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2587
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    Nowadays, employee turnover is an important issue in organizations. Predicting employee turnover in advance using big data can provide a scientific basis for making decisions of employment and retention, which will enhance the foresight and wisdom of human resource management. The key problem of reported employee turnover prediction models is the lack of business driving force, which is manifested in that they can only answer to the human resource manager whether an employee has the turnover intention, but cannot further indicate why he or she will leave and how to retain it in a targeted manner. Therefore, focusing on this problem, a portrait-based employee turnover prediction model named PCC is proposed, integrating PCA (Principal Component Analysis), CLARA (Clustering Large Application), and CART (Classification and Regression Tree). Finally, the PCC model is experimented on an open-source employee turnover dataset with 14,999 samples from Kaggle. Theoretical and experimental studies show that the PCC model can provide theoretical reference for employee turnover prediction, turnover portrait description and accurate retention strategy design. Besides, it can be used to predict the turnover intention of individual employee and monitor the turnover distribution of all employees. Furthermore, it can provide data support for employee retention and talent reserve from both micro and macro levels. In summary, the PCC model is a feasible, effective and intelligent system for human resource management.

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    Bayesian Equilibrium Analysis with Information Asymmetry and Credit Guarantee
    Xiang Liu,Zhaojun Yang,Suhua Liu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (7): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1522
    Abstract429)   HTML25)    PDF(pc) (2178KB)(574)       Save

    Micro-, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are the backbone of science and technology invention and social productivity improvement, which are crucial to development strategies of a country. The 2019 central economic work congress of China delivered five signals, one of which is to increase the support for high-tech enterprises. Financing for MSMEs is difficult and expensive over the world. The fundamental reason lies in asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders on investment profitability. Although there are many theories of credit guarantee and corporate finance in the literature, there is no academic research to quantify how information asymmetry impacts on the existing credit guarantee methods, say the fee-for-guarantee swaps (FGSs), equity-for-guarantee swaps (EGSs) and option-for-guarantee swaps (OGSs). A single-period model for an MSME is developed to start a project. The enterprise must borrow to start the project from a bank after entering into an FGS, EGS or OGS agreement with an insurer. A credit guarantee pricing method is proposed. Bayesian game theory is used to characterize FGSs, EGSs and OGSs. The novelties of the paper are summarized as follows. The degree of the negative influence of information asymmetry on three different guarantee swaps is different. The effect is highest for OGSs, the second highest for EGSs and the lowest for FGSs agreement. High-profit enterprises may transfer their part of profits to insurers instead of low-profit ones to prevent the imitation of low-profit enterprises. Surprisingly, it is possible that the net present value of a high-profit enterprise would increase with the investment cost. Information asymmetry does not surely lead to the loss of social welfare.

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    Production and Selling Strategies of Agriculture Products under E-tailers' Support for Farmers
    Wenting Sun,Hongjun Peng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (7): 181-189.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1927
    Abstract422)   HTML10)    PDF(pc) (2098KB)(1125)       Save

    Under the background of e-tailers and consumers’ support for poor farmers, e-tailers, such as JD. COM, are encouraged to help selling agriculture products of poor areas. Consumers are also willing to buy products in poor areas and pay a price premium for them. However, expensive logistics costs are regarded as main obstacles that hinder the e-selling of agriculture products in poor areas. Usually, there are two e-selling modes for agriculture products, which are agency selling and reselling modes. Under the agency selling mode, farmers sell directly to consumers and undertake logistics costs while the e-tailer charges a few commission. Under the reselling mode, the e-tailer purchases products from farmers and resell them to consumers, and the e-tailer undertakes logistics costs. Due to economics of scale, the e-tailer’s logistics efficiency is usually higher than farmers’. In this context, the sale strategy of agriculture products in poor areas has become a challenge for farmers, e-tailers and government. That is to say, is it beneficial for poor farmers to sell by e-channel? Which sale mode is better for poor farmers?To solve the questions, a two level supply chain composed of an e-tailer and a poor farmer is studied, and a Stackelberg game model between them is established. Firstly, the farmer’s production decisions and the e-tailer’s pricing decisions are studied under agency selling and reselling modes, considering the e-tailer and consumers’ preference to support farmer and logistics costs. Further, the farmer selling in the local market is taken as a contrast, and the effects of e-selling on farmer’s welfare are analyzed by comparing the farmer’s profits with selling in the local market and with selling under two e-selling modes.The results show that e-tailers and consumers’ preference to support farmer both have positive effects on farmer’s production and profit. Compared to selling in the local market, e-tailing can improve farmer’s profit in most cases. While the farmer’s profit may be hurt when logistics costs are relatively high and the e-tailer’s preference to support farmer is relatively small, or when logistics costs are very high. Combined with numerical analysis, it is gotten that agency selling mode usually performs better in improving farmer’s profit than reselling mode; when farmer’s logistics cost is obviously higher than the e-tailer’s (e.g. 10% higher than the e-tailer’s), agency selling mode does better only if the e-tailer’s preference to support farmer is relatively high (e.g. higher than 0.5); when farmer’s logistics cost is significantly higher than the e-tailer’s (e.g. 40% higher than the e-tailer’s), reselling mode does better.The research findings can provide decision reference and management enlightenment for the selling of agriculture products in poor areas. To develop e-tailing in poor areas, firstly, the government may stimulate e-tailers and consumers’ willing to support poor farmers by means of rewards or subsidies. Secondly, the government may improve cold-chain logistics infrastructure in poor areas or subsidize logistics costs to reduce logistics costs of agriculture products’ e-tailing.

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