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    Stock Index Prediction Based on LSTM Network and Text Sentiment Analysis
    Xiaojian Yu,Guopeng Liu,Jianlin Liu,Weilin Xiao
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (8): 25-35.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0084
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    Investment decision-making can be a complex process, influenced by various factors, including investor behavior preferences. Therefore, it's important to understand and capture investor sentiment for predicting future changes in the stock market trend. In this regard, machine learning algorithms can be helpful in analyzing investor sentiment in the financial market. It aims to construct a predictive model for stock indices using an LSTM network and text sentiment analysis in this paper.To begin with, a web crawler program is used to collect text comments on individual stocks in the East Money Stock Bar. The text data are analyzed using the SVM sentiment classification algorithm to construct a market sentiment index that reflects investor sentiment. Additionally, the LSTM deep learning network is used to extract the features of the market sentiment index and make short-term predictions on the SSE 50 index.Various traditional time series analysis models and machine learning models are compared. The results show that the LSTM neural network has higher accuracy and precision in financial time series prediction. After incorporating market sentiment features, the accuracy and precision of the LSTM network prediction results can be improved. This indicates that investor market sentiment is highly effective and applicable for market index prediction. It is also found that error correction of the LSTM network prediction results can effectively optimize the prediction results.Overall, a new method is provided for understanding investor sentiment and predicting future changes in the stock market trend. It is hoped that our research results can provide useful reference and guidance for financial investors and analysts.

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    Equilibrium Analysis of Manufacturers' Digital Transformation Strategy under Supply Chain Competition
    Hua Zhang,Xin Gu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (6): 163-172.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1572
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    The digital economy is profoundly changing the fundamental principles and value creation logic of the manufacturing industry and has become a new driving force leading economic growth. However, the digital economy also exerts great pressure on the traditional development model of the manufacturing industry. Some firms implementing digital transformation may not only use their market power to occupy excess monopoly profits but also curb the living space of traditional manufacturers by technological advantages. Therefore, choosing an appropriate opportunity to implement digital transformation is an important decision issue faced by manufacturers.Two competitive supply chains consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer are consided, and dynamic game models are employed to analyze the optimal strategy and game equilibrium of manufacturers' digital transformation. The results show that either of the two manufacturers can maximize its own profits, downstream retailer profits, and supply chain market share by implementing digital transformation ahead of its competitors. It is also found that manufacturers' digital transformation will generate technological shocks and technological spillovers on the competitor who adopt traditional technologies, and the effect of technological shocks is greater than technological spillovers, which not only reduces the competitor's profits but also grabs its supply chain's market share. Regarding the strategic decision of digital transformation, whether the two manufacturers make decisions in sequence or at the same time, both of them implementing digital transformation will have a win-win effect, increasing manufacturers' profits and forming a Nash equilibrium of supply chain competition.Two key contributions are made to the literature. On the one hand, different from the previous research on digital transformation, not only the technological spillovers of digital transformation to incumbent firms are considered but also the impact of technological shocks about digital transformation on market competition is examined. The strategic decision of manufacturers' digital transformation is analyzed from the perspective of supply chain competition and theoretical support is provided for a deeper understanding of the mechanism of digital transformation on market competition. On the other hand, the literature in the field of supply chain competition and dynamic games mainly focuses on the game among firms in the traditional economic context, and seldom pays attention to the new business phenomena in the digital economy. The dynamic game models are used to analyze the Nash equilibrium of manufacturers' digital transformation in supply chain competition, the conditions for achieving a win-win effect between manufacturers are investigated, and the strategic decision for manufacturers is discussed to maximize profits under different strategy profiles, thereby enriching the literature in the field of supply chain competition and dynamic game.

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    Intelligent Quality Management: Theoretical Framework, Key Technologies, and Research Prospect
    Huchen Liu,Heming Wang,Hua Shi
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 287-298.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0399
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    The rapid development of a new generation of information technology, such as big data, Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, has provided opportunities for the transformation and development of the manufacturing industry. To enhance the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry, it should focus on quality improvement, starting from the digital, network and intelligent transformation of quality management, to drive the upgrading of manufacturing industry. At present, there is no theoretical guidance for the upgrading and transformation of quality management in China’s manufacturing industry. Therefore, it aims to propose the concept of intelligent quality management based on the current research progress and the actual development of China’s manufacturing industry is this paper. The theory model of intelligent quality management from the technical, activity, and value dimensions is proposed, and nine key technologies (i.e., Internet of Things, big data platform, cloud computing and edge computing, machine learning, machine vision, digital twins, wireless communication, visualization, and blockchain) and their application scenarios are introduced. Finally, the future researches of intelligent quality management are pointed out from the perspectives of theoretical research, technical research, and application research. This study can provide strong guidance for the transformation and upgrading of quality management in China’s manufacturing industry by establishing the theoretical framework of intelligent quality management, exploring the development path of quality, and promoting the development of China’s manufacturing industry with high quality.

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    Application of Blockchain Technology to Preventing Supply Chain Finance Based on Evolutionary Game
    Rui Sun,Dayi He,Huilin Su
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 125-134.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1538
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    Because of the risks existing in supply chain finance, taking accounts receivable factoring business as the research object, the factors affecting the decision-making of the participants in supply chain finance are analyzed, an evolutionary game model between small and medium-sized enterprises and financial institutions is constructed, and the mechanism of blockchain to solve the financial risks of the supply chain is analyzed by comparing the changes of evolutionary stability strategies before and after the introduction of blockchain technology. And taking the actual case as the background for example analysis, the main conclusions are verified. It is found that firstly, credit risk plays a decisive role in whether financial institutions accept financing business decisions. Blockchain technology can reduce the operational risk of financial institutions and improve the business income of financial institutions; Secondly, the strict regulatory environment formed by blockchain technology makes the default behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises and core enterprises in a high-risk state at all times. No matter the profit distribution proportion that small and medium-sized enterprises can obtain through collusion, they will not choose to default, which effectively solves the paradox that small and medium-sized enterprises cannot obtain loans from financial institutions despite the increased probability of compliance. Then, the evolutionary game between financial institutions and small and medium-sized enterprises is balanced in that financial institutions accept business applications, small and medium-sized enterprises abide by the contract, and the convergence effect is better. Therefore, blockchain technology not only reduces the financing risk of financial institutions, but also helps to solve the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises.

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    Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renminbi Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS Model
    Xinyu Wu,Haibin Xie,Chaoqun Ma
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (8): 1-14.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1654
    Abstract432)   HTML44)    PDF(pc) (726KB)(726)       Save

    Financial volatility modeling and forecasting has always been a hot topic in financial econometrics, due to its great importance for derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. Typically, GARCH model is used to describe the dynamics of financial volatility. However, the GARCH model uses squared return to measure volatility, ignoring the information of intraday price movements. An alternative approach for measuring volatility is to employ the intraday range, which is calculated using the intraday high and low prices. Apparently, the intraday range makes full use of the intraday price information (extreme value information), which is a more efficient volatility estimator than the squared return volatility estimator.A classical model for describing the dynamics of the intraday range is the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model, which produces more accurate volatility forecasts than the return-based GARCH model. Despite the empirical success of the range-based CARR model, it cannot capture the impact of macroeconomic variables (macroeconomic information) on financial volatility. In recent years, the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) keeps rising, due to a series of events including the US-China trade war and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Intuitively, high EPU may affect investors' investment decisions and hence financial market. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, which is of great relevance for investors and policy-makers and would have a close relation to EPU. As the currency of the world's second largest economy, renminbi plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Since the implementation of renminbi exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the renminbi exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations. Accurate prediction of the renminbi exchange rate volatility has become increasingly important. To our knowledge, there are few studies investigating the impact of EPU on the renminbi exchange rate volatility.Inspired by the return-based GARCH-MIDAS model, this paper extends the classical range-based CARR model to the range-based CARR-MIDAS model to model the renminbi exchange rate volatility. The model framework explores the intraday extreme value information and allows the low-frequency macroeconomic variable (macroeconomic information) such as EPU directly impacts the volatility via the long-run component of volatility and the flexible MIDAS structure.Using the monthly global EPU index and daily US Dollar against Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate data, the impact and predictive ability of the EPU on USD/CNY exchange rate volatility are investigated relying on the range-based CARR-MIDAS model with the EPU (CARR-MIDAS-EPU). The empirical results show that the EPU has a significant positive impact on the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. That is, an increase in the EPU level predicts higher level of the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. The range-based CARR-MIDAS-EPU model produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the USD/CNY exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and GARCH-MIDAS-EPU model as well as the range-based CARR model and CARR-MIDAS model, for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This finding suggests that the range and EPU contain valuable information for forecasting USD/CNY exchange rate volatility. The robustness analysis based on the alternative global EPU index as well as the out-of-sample forecasting windows further supports the above conclusion.

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    Research on the Influence of O2O Take-out Promotion Strategy on Consumers' Purchase Intention
    Qi Zhong,Guanqiao Qu,Jiafu Tang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 254-264.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2164
    Abstract424)   HTML32)    PDF(pc) (700KB)(402)       Save

    In the post-epidemic era, how the O2O take-out industry can improve user experience and increase purchase willingness through differentiated promotion strategies is a problem that O2O take-out platform and catering businesses are very concerned about. The mechanism of the O2O take-out price promotion strategy is focused on in this study. The 13 common price promotion methods of O2O take-out are categorized into three types of promotion strategies: coupons, discounts, and additional service fee discounts. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response model (SOR model), the perceived promotion value factor is introduced, according to the logic line of price promotion strategy - perceived value - purchase intention, the theoretical model is established. 567 valid sample data are collected through online questionnaire survey for statistical analysis, and a structural equation model is used for hypotheses testing. The influence path and mechanism of O2O take-out promotion strategies with different prices on potential consumers' purchase intention are empirically tested in this paper, and the intermediary effect of the perceived promotion benefit and the perceived promotion cost is verified. The empirical results show that among the three types of price promotion strategies, the purchase intention of potential consumers is most significantly impacted by the coupon promotion strategy; The purchase intention of O2O take-out consumers is only minimally affected by the discount strategy of additional service fee; What’s more, under the discount strategy, consumers are required to make a final purchase decision after weighing the perceived promotion cost and the perceived promotion benefit, it is different from the coupon strategy that directly prompts O2O take-out consumers to make purchase decisions. It not only provides a theoretical framework for the mechanism of O2O take-out price promotion strategy, but also expands the application of promotion theory, perceived value theory and SOR model in some emerging fields in this study. The research conclusions provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for O2O take-out platforms and catering businesses to design and improve their existing promotion strategies and enhance consumers' purchasing willingness.

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    Research on Frequency of the Joint Network Connectedness of Systemic Financial Risks in China ——Based on the Locally Stationary Non-parametric Time-varying Vector HAR Model
    Qiang Fu,Zelong Shi
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1266
    Abstract422)   HTML37)    PDF(pc) (1171KB)(506)       Save

    In the past decade, China has experienced two critical events - the 2015 stock market disaster and the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), which have had a great impact on the financial markets. Through the comparison of the two crises, it is found that the impact of the stock market disaster on financial markets is much stronger and longer than the coronavirus disease 2019, although the financial markets experienced sharp declines in both crises. It matters to both governments and academia to find out the reasons behind the differences in the causes of the two crises to financial risks and further figure out the sources of systemic risks.Taking the high-frequency data of financial stocks as object, a locally stationary non-parametric time-varying vector HAR model (tv-VHAR model) under high dimensions is constructed firstly in this article by assuming that the parameters of the vector Heterogeneous Autoregression Model (HAR model) are functions of time t/T. On this basis, the estimation problem under the Curse of dimensionality is solved by applying the Quasi-Bayesian Local Likelihood methods to the tv-VHAR model. Secondly, the frequency component of the joint connectedness is proposed in this article to increase the measurement accuracy of the systemic financial risks by revising the Baruník and K?ehlík (2018) model. Finally, the systemic financial risks in China are systematically analyzed and is proved to have the following 5 features:(1) From October 2010 to October 2020, the total joint connectedness of the financial system risks in China showed a relatively high value and fluctuated continuously.(2) In normal times, high-frequency components account for a larger proportion of the total joint connectedness, followed by the medium-term components, and finally the long-term components. (3) During the crises, the proportion of the high-frequency components declines rapidly, while that of the medium- and long-term components rises rapidly, which sometimes exceeds the former. (4) It is found that the Covid-19 exerted less influence on investors' mid- to long-term belief changes, and the influence lasts for shorter while analyzing in the perspective of frequency, though the total joint connectedness of the critical event are similar. (5) It is found that large securities companies and joint-stock commercial banks mainly act as risk communicators and occupy a dominant position in financial network risk contagion. However, the four major state-owned commercial banks mainly act as risk receivers, and can play as a stabilizer in the financial system as they have the ability to resist risks. In addition, small securities companies and other financial institutions also act as risk receivers.

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    Digital Transformation, Network Relevance and Banking Systemic Risk
    Wenyang Wu,Hai Jiang,Shenfeng Tang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 9-19.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2720
    Abstract419)   HTML35)    PDF(pc) (659KB)(913)       Save

    The digital economy is a key driving force for stable economic growth and a new engine for high-quality economic development. With the maturity of new-generation information technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence, a large number of commercial banks have embraced digital technology and initiated digital transformation, making digital transformation a new round of arms race among banks. However, it is worth noting that the essence of digital transformation is an innovation, which does bring new opportunities for the development of the banking industry, but any kind of innovation means the re-setting of the rules of the game, thus triggering a new change in the market structure. In other words, the dividends brought by digital transformation should be seized, but also whether digital transformation will bring new uncertainties and challenges to the banking system and financial supervision should be considered. This shows that the impact of digital transformation on commercial banks and financial supervision has become an important topic that scholars pay close attention to. Then, the following questions should be considered: Has the digital transformation of banks exacerbated or reduced systemic risks in the banking industry? If the influence relationship between them exists, what is the internal transmission mechanism? There are important theoretical and practical significance for the promotion of digital transformation of commercial banks, and useful reference for the improvement of the financial regulatory policy framework in this paper.Factors such as digital transformation, network relevance and external shock are introduced into the classic bank moral hazard model to analyze the inherent impact of digital transformation on banking systemic risk. On this basis, the 2012-2020 quarterly panel data of China Commercial Bank Digital Transformation Index established by manual collection and text mining methods are used to conduct empirical testing. The results show that: (i) Digital transformation can effectively reduce network relevance and banking systemic risk. (ii) Digital transformation will curb banking systemic risk by significantly reducing the degree of network relevance of commercial banks. That is, network relevance is an important channel through which digital transformation affects banking systemic risk. (iii) The digital transformation has a more significant restraining effect on the systemic risk level of small banks. (iv) Digital transformation can weaken the negative impact of negative external shocks such as weakening the new crown pneumonia epidemic and international financial market volatility on banking systemic risk. Digital transformation can reduce the adverse impact of negative external shocks such as the fluctuations in international financial markets on banking systemic risk.The findings have important policy implications. The research results will help to promote the risk management of commercial banks and the integrated development of digital technology and commercial banks, such as encouraging commercial banks to carry out digital transformation and improving their digital risk management capabilities. Different types of commercial banks can carry out differentiated layout for digitization and try to find the most suitable digital strategy for themselves. Regulators should promulgate management measures for the digital transformation of the financial industry, formulate relevant standards in the fields of artificial intelligence, big data and other digital technologies, so as to regulate the application of digital technologies in the financial system.

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    Re-exploration of Small and Micro Enterprises' Default Characteristics Based on Machine Learning Models with SHAP
    Xinnan Lei,Lefan Lin,Binqing Xiao,Honghai Yu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (5): 1-12.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0027
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    Machine learning methods have been applied to the small and micro enterprises’ loan approval and monitoring process, and have achieved good results in default identification. Considering the higher recognition accuracy of machine learning methods, its use of indicator information should be better than traditional models. Therefore, it hopes to dig out the important factors in the judgment of default from the perspective of machine learning in this paper.SHAP is a machine learning interpretation method based on the Shapley value of game theory, which can identify the importance of indicators in the model from the perspective of results. Based on the small and micro enterprise loan account of a bank, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is added to machine learning models to find important default characteristics of small and micro enterprises.It is found that, in addition to traditional loan information and corporate financial indicators, non-financial indicators such as the age of the company, the number of law cases, and the “soft information” evaluated by the customer manager play significant role in identifying defaults of small and micro enterprises.From the perspective of interpretability, the application of machine learning methods is discussed in the identification of default characteristics of small and micro enterprises, and innovatively the SHAP interpretation method is introduced to study important indicators in rating. At the same time, the key indicators mined have guiding significance for the development of loan business.

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    Supply Chain Quality Information Sharing and Block Chain-enabled Authorization Strategies
    Qin Su,Wenbo Zhang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 324-334.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0395
    Abstract416)   HTML16)    PDF(pc) (924KB)(801)       Save

    Blockchain-based traceability technology has contributed to the widespread adoption of formal supply chain quality information systems. Through the quality blockchain, suppliers are able to decide how much quality information to share and with whom, thereby alleviating their concerns about information leakage and loss of competitive advantage, which has significant implications for their pricing decisions and performance. However, the majority of existing studies have focused solely on the binary quality information sharing decision, sharing or non-sharing, instead of flexible decision-making. Furthermore, it needs to discuss the impact of the most important factors in the market, namely quality and price competition, on the supply chain information-related decisions.It is discussed how suppliers make quality information sharing decisions in the competitive environment, how quality information sharing level affect the decision-making and performance of the supply chain players, how quality and price competition intensity affect quality information sharing decisions and supply chain profit, and whether suppliers should share quality information horizontally with their competitors.A multi-stage game model of quality and price competition is established for two suppliers participating and their common retailer in the same quality blockchain under a competitive environment, and the optimal vertical quality information sharing decision, supply chain pricing decision and benefits of all parties are analyzed under three horizontal quality information sharing strategies of non-sharing, two-way sharing and unilateral sharing through blockchain authorization. Then the influence of quality and price competition intensity and equilibrium deviation behaviors is discussed. Finally, a robust numerical example is used to verify the effectiveness of the model and management implications are presented.It is found that (i) Regardless of the horizontal quality information sharing strategy adopted by the competing suppliers, vertical quality information sharing from either supplier can always yield nonnegative direct or spillover effects to the information recipients. This reflects the value of quality information, emphasizing the need for supply chain enterprises to prioritize and take the lead in quality blockchain information sharing and authorization management. (ii) The intensification of quality competition encourages suppliers to improve their quality information sharing level, which benefits each supply chain player, while the intensification of price competition inhibits suppliers' input in quality information, which harms any supplier's profit and the spillover effect obtained by the retailer, but helps the retailer obtain a higher certain profit. Therefore, for suppliers, keeping sufficient quality advantage is an effective way to avoid being hurt by price competition; For the retailer, it is more beneficial when price competition is intense while quality is relatively stable, such as for daily consumer goods, and more beneficial when price competition is weak while quality fluctuation is large, such as for high-end fresh food market. (iii) Suppliers' vertical quality information sharing decisions are influenced by their own strategies, and in turn by their competitors' horizontal quality information sharing strategies. When quality competition is weak, the optimal strategy of any supplier is horizontal sharing. When the quality competition is strong, the optimal strategy is horizontal non-sharing. (iv) When price competition is weak while quality competition is relatively strong, suppliers have the incentive to share quality information with each other to mitigate quality competition and reduce quality information inputs, but this may hurt the profits of the retailer and the whole supply chain, and the sharing level of supply chain quality information. From the standpoint of the supply chain, it is necessary to prevent the suppliers from conspiring to monopolize the supply.This study provides theoretical basis and practical guidance for supply chain enterprises to decide quality information input and product price when facing competitive products, and to use quality blockchain for information authorization and management. It also has reference value for the retail to improve marketing management of competitive products. In the future, the research can be extended to more supply chain structures, decision influencing factors and empirical research.

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    Logistics Cooperation and Operations Decision of fresh E-commerce Supply Chain Considering Random Demand
    Xin Cui,Chunfa Li,Chi Zhou,Xinxin Mi,Yao Shen
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 87-98.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1751
    Abstract416)   HTML41)    PDF(pc) (1342KB)(814)       Save

    Logistics drives the operation of fresh products e-commerce supply chain. During the logistics process of fresh products from fresh product supplier to consumers, various suppliers can provide fresh-keeping logistics services. Third-party logistics providers can act as service providers and operate fresh-keeping logistics services independently. Logistics providers can cooperate with fresh product suppliers to jointly operate fresh-keeping logistics services. It is also a new trend for some fresh e-commerce platforms to build logistics networks. How do the supply chain members of fresh e-commerce supply chain choose among the above three logistics cooperation modes? To solve the problem, it focuses on the logistics cooperation model of fresh e-commerce supply chain in this paper, and a Stackelberg game model is established.Our supply chain model is composed of the fresh product supplier, the fresh e-commerce platform, the logistics service provider and consumers. We marked the independent operation mode of logistics provider as Mode A, the cooperation mode between logistics provider and fresh product supplier as Mode B, and the cooperation mode between logistics provider and fresh e-commerce platform as Mode C. The product price, product freshness and product demand of the three modes are compared, and the predicted value of product demand and the preference of cooperation mode of supply chain members is studied by numerical simulation.The results show that logistics cooperation can definitely improve the retail price of products and delivery freshness of the products. When the logistics provider operate independently, the order quantity of the fresh e-commerce platform should be very small, because it has to bear too much ordering cost. When logistics provider cooperates with fresh supplier or fresh e-commerce platform, the e-commerce platforms can increase the order quantity of products. When consumers are not sensitive to the price of a product, but sensitive to the freshness of a product, it is easy for supply chain members to collaborate. To achieve cooperation, members of the supply chain need to negotiate to determine the proportion of benefit distribution.

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    Stochastic Optimization for Fresh E-commerce Network Design and Order Fulfillment under Uncertain Demand
    Jun Zhuang,Dong Yang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 188-198.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2177
    Abstract398)   HTML21)    PDF(pc) (1678KB)(738)       Save

    With the popularization of online shopping and the implementation of stay-at-home orders, China’s fresh food e-commerce market has been growing rapidly and it has changed our buying habits for fresh food. Currently, there are mainly three forms of fresh food e-commerce in China, namely front warehouse, in-store as warehouse, and community buying group. Among them, as a popular form, front warehouse plays a vital role in ensuring the freshness and on-time delivery rates of fresh foods because it can well address the last three-kilometer delivery problem. However, high investment cost of front warehouses in warehouses location, order fulfillment and inventory holding has become one of the main bottlenecks in restricting its further development for fresh food e-commerce. To deal with the problem with front warehouses, the front warehouse location and order fulfillment problem for fresh e-commerce are addressed, considering the uncertainties in fresh product demands and the shelf-life constraints of fresh products. This problem can be formalized as a two-stage stochastic programming model where the warehouse location and inventory replenishment decisions can be made in the first stage before the realization of uncertain customer demands, and the order fulfillment decisions are made in the second-stage after uncertain customer demands are observed. Due to the computational difficulties and non-linearity in solving the two-stage stochastic programming model, a sample-average-approximation based Benders decomposition algorithm (SBD) is proposed to transform the stochastic model into a sample approximation model by using Latin hypercube sampling method. As a result, this approximation model is a mixed integer programming model and thus can be solved by Benders decomposition algorithm. Finally, a case study about a fresh food e-commerce company in Shanghai, China, which aims to deploy a front-warehouse distribution network for online fresh products, is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. It demonstrates that the presented two-stage stochastic programming model can effectively reduce order fulfillment costs for fresh food e-commerce when uncertainties are dealt with. Furthermore, the experimental results reveal that the SBD algorithm performs better than the commercial solver CPLEX, both in small-scale instances and large-scale instances. In addition, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the unit holding cost, expired cost and shortage cost have a significant effect on total order fulfillment cost for fresh food e-commerce. In summary, the proposed two-stage stochastic programming model and corresponding SBD algorithms can well handle the decisions problem with front warehouse locations and order fulfillment for online fresh food e-commerce when uncertainties are encountered.

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    Human Factors Capability Assessment in Human-machine Collaborative Decision-making
    Xiangwen Li,Cheng Song,Shuai Ding
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 145-155.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021-2403
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    With the development of artificial intelligence technology, humans are increasingly dependent on machines intelligence to make the correct decisions. The evolution of machine intelligence is changing from detecting and recognizing human beings to perceiving and understanding human beings. The evolution process of decision-making model from the perspective of human-machine collaboration is reviewed, the definition of human factors capability is proposed and the characteristics such as measurability, individual differences, dynamics, and strong correlation are pointed out. Thus a calculation model of human factors capability is established and each index is measured. A human factors capability assessment method that incorporates a capability scale is proposed. The task scenarios of human-machine collaborative decision-making with human factor capabilities are focused on, and the interactive activities of human, machine, and environment are studied with full consideration of human characteristics and factors. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the human factor capability assessment method is analyzed in specific application scenarios. This paper also look forward to the research directions of human factors capability research, in order to providing theoretical and practical references for solving the problem of human-machine collaborative decision-making in the era of artificial intelligence.

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    Strategies of Manufacturers Introducing Live Streaming
    Le Wang,Yang Song,Tijun Fan
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 276-284.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2472
    Abstract366)   HTML29)    PDF(pc) (768KB)(825)       Save

    With the development of internet technology, the online direct selling mode is rapidly emerging. However, the direct selling mode by the manufacturer suffer from product untouchability, which will directly affect consumers’ perceived value of the product. As a new online sales mode, live streaming can improve consumers’ perceived value by increasing the touchability of the product, and the price discount during live streaming can also improve consumers' willingness to buy. However, it takes time for consumers to watch the live streaming, which brings hassle cost. Therefore, whether manufacturers introduce live streaming and what pricing strategy to adopt after introduction live streaming are urgent issues to be studied.In order to solve this question, two models of whether the manufacturer introduces a live streaming sales mode are considered. Consumers in the market are divided into live streaming time consumers and non-live streaming time consumers. Considering the consumer’s perceived value of the product and the hassle cost, the consumer’s utility function is constructed, and the manufacturer simultaneously decides the prices of the live streaming product and the direct selling product to maximize its profit. Then the KKT condition is used to solve for the manufacturer's equilibrium pricing and profit to determine the manufacturer's live streaming introduction strategy.The results show that the decision of manufacturers live streaming introduction is related to the average perceived value of products and the change range of perceived value. The higher the hassle cost for consumers to watch live streaming, the lower the demand for live streaming, and the manufacturers raise the direct selling price to obtain more revenue. The profits of manufacturers and demand for direct selling first decrease and then increase with the increase of consumers' hassle cost of watching live streaming. Moreover, with the increase of the perceived value of live streaming for the product, manufacturers increase the sales price of live streaming and reduce the direct selling price to expand the total demand of products. The manufacturer's profit first decreases and then increases with the increase in the perceived value of live streaming for the product. The introduction of live streaming changes the mode of single-channel direct selling and increases the difficulty of manufacturers' decision-making. The research has certain guiding significance for live streaming introduction and pricing strategy of manufacturers in the market.

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    Credit Scoring Based on Semi-supervised Support Vector Machine
    Song Chen,Xiuyun Yu,Yongqin Qiu,Kuangnan Fang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (3): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2434
    Abstract364)   HTML62)    PDF(pc) (1010KB)(469)       Save

    To address the problem of difficulty and high cost in obtaining labeled samples in credit scoring, a new credit scoring model is proposed based on semi-supervised support vector machines. By introducing new parameters to the unlabeled samples, the model need not satisfy the random missing assumption and has good applicability. Meanwhile, adding a semi-supervised part to the loss function encourages the similarity between the coefficients of labeled and unlabeled samples, which can effectively fuse the unlabeled sample information and improve the estimation effect. In addition, Group LASSO is used for variable selection, which can make full use of the group structure information and screen important variables. The feasibility of the proposed method and its excellent results in variable selection, coefficient estimation and classification prediction are demonstrated by numerical simulations and an example data of credit card risk default prediction.

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    Competition Strategy of Crowdsourcing Logistics Service Quality Based on Big Data Technology
    Xiuli Meng,Jing Yang,Bo Liu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (4): 130-140.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0350
    Abstract352)   HTML21)    PDF(pc) (1167KB)(449)       Save

    In order to realize the rapid increase of transportation capacity, crowdsourcing logistics distribution mode is gradually adopted by O2O platforms in recent years. Meanwhile, the adoption of big data technology, such as real-time tracking of packages and receivers based on GPS and disclosure of identity information of receivers, is conducive to the improvement of crowdsourcing logistics service quality, such as optimizing distribution path and realizing more accurate and rapid matching between the service platform and receivers. Therefore, how to achieve long-term profits in the competitive environment is an urgent problem to be solved for crowdsourcing logistics enterprises.A quality competition differential game model of the platform and its receiver is constructed. The two parties’ optimal quality control level, profits and the optimal service quality track under three cases are solved by using the optimal control method. The impact of big data technology on the decision-making of both sides is also discussed. The results suggest that: the higher the service price, the higher the quality control level and big data technology level of the service platform, the receiver’s quality control level is motivated by higher commission rate and service price. The higher price competition coefficient is, the higher the profits of the service platform and the receiver are. With the increase of the competitive enterprise’s service price, the two parties’ profits are improved when the price competition coefficient exceeds a certain value. When the initial service quality and service quality sensitivity coefficient are lower than a certain value, the higher service quality sensitivity coefficient, the lower the two parties’ profits. When the initial logistics service quality is higher than a certain value, the higher service quality sensitivity coefficient, the higher the two parties’ profit. The competitive platform’s quality control level is not affected by the service platform’s big data technology strategy, however, its own quality control level is improved. Choosing to improve the level of big data technology is more beneficial to the increase of profits of the platform and its receiver. No matter whether the platform improves the big data technology level or not, the receiver’s quality control level remains unchanged. The conclusions are employed to provide targeted suggestions on improving the quality control level and profits of both sides, the big data technology selection strategy of service platforms and controlling the crowdsourcing logistics service quality.

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    Researchon Multi-class Sentiment Classification Based on BERT and Dynamic Ensemble Selection
    Zhongliang Zhang,Qinjun Fei,Yuyu Chen,Xinggang Luo
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (6): 140-150.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1159
    Abstract348)   HTML21)    PDF(pc) (2270KB)(486)       Save

    To handle semantic deficiency of text feature vector extracted by classic methods and the issue of multi-classsentimentclassification in the text emotion recognition task, a novel multi-class sentiment classification strategy based onBidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and dynamic ensemble selection (DES) is proposed. First, BERT is used to vectorize the text.Then, the OVO strategy is used to divide the multi-class sentiment classification problem into multiple binary classification sub-problems.Next, the dynamic ensemble selection strategy is developed to construct binary classifier for dealing with each sub-problem.Finally, the final prediction result is obtained based on the aggregation strategy. A public movie review data set is employed to carry out the experimental analysis. The experimental results indicate that(1) the BERT model is helpful in improving the multi-class sentiment classification performancewith respect to these traditional methods, namely TFIDF and Wor2Vec, (2) it is effective to use the DES strategy for dealing with each sub-problem in multi-class sentiment classification, and (3)the performance of the proposed method is also significantlybetter than that of the existing well-known methods for multi-class sentiment analysis.

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    Research on the Marketing Strategy of Community Group Buying Supply Chain Based on Network Externality
    Qiuxiang Li,Jing Zhang,Yimin Huang,Ershi Qi
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (2): 75-86.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1420
    Abstract343)   HTML26)    PDF(pc) (944KB)(408)       Save

    The network externalities and marketing strategies of the community group buying supply chain are studied. Based on the network externalities of community group buying products and the different entities responsible for marketing efforts, six marketing decision models are constructed to explore the effects of network externalities and effort levels on product demand, pricing, and platform and team leader returns. The optimal marketing strategy selection problem for the platform and team leader under six marketing methods is analyzed. It is found that: (1) Under different marketing methods, network externalities are positively correlated with product demand, pricing, and profits of platforms and team leaders within a certain range. Beyond a certain range, team leaders or platforms may engage in free riding behavior. (2) In the absence of network externalities, when the marketing efforts of the platform are low, the profits of the platform and the team leader are highest when the team leader separately markets. When the marketing efforts of the platform are high, the revenue of the platform and team leader is highest when the platform is separately marketed. (3) When there is network externality, when the platform's marketing efforts are low, the platform's revenue is highest when the team leader is marketing alone, and the team leader's revenue is higher when the platform and team leader are marketing simultaneously. When the marketing efforts of the platform are high, the revenue of the platform and team leader is highest when the platform is separately marketed.The impact of network externalities on the selection of community group buying platforms and marketing efforts by group leaders in the community group buying supply chain is studied. Based on the different entities that bear marketing costs, different marketing decision-making models without and with network externalities are constructed, and the optimal marketing strategies under different marketing efforts are analyzed; And combined with numerical analysis, the relationship between different decision models is compared, and corresponding management insights are provided. It is found that: (1) under the independent marketing approach of the platform, network externalities are positively correlated with the platform's marketing efforts, platform pricing, product demand, and the revenue of the platform and team leaders within a certain range. Beyond this range, team leaders may engage in free riding behavior. (2) In the case of individual marketing by team leaders, network externalities are positively correlated with marketing efforts, platform pricing, product demand, and the revenue of both the platform and team leaders within a certain range. Beyond this range, the platform may engage in free riding behavior. (3) In the case of simultaneous marketing by team leaders and platforms, network externalities are positively correlated with their marketing efforts, platform pricing, and product demand. However, network externalities are positively correlated with the platform and team leader's revenue within a certain range. Beyond a certain range, the platform or team leader may engage in free riding behavior. (4) The choice of platform and team leader marketing models depends on the level of marketing efforts of both when there is or is no network externality.For the platform, the team leader is closest to consumers and has more advantages in marketing. The platform can take appropriate incentive measures to increase product sales and obtain higher profits. Secondly, it makes reasonable use of the network externalities of community group buying products, establishes reasonable sales prices, and effectively reduces problems such as low price dumping and vicious competition on community group buying platforms in this study. For team leaders, they should make reasonable use of their own advantages for marketing efforts, not just rely on community group buying platforms, but take the initiative to obtain higher profits and achieve mutual benefit and win-win between community group buying platforms and team leaders.

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    Information Sharing in the Fresh Produce Supply Chain with 3PL's Fresh-keeping Effort
    Bin Dan,Songxuan Ma,Molin Liu,Yu Tian,Ting Lei
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (5): 122-132.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0778
    Abstract334)   HTML12)    PDF(pc) (871KB)(452)       Save

    As the consumption level rises, the price of fresh produce is not the only concern of consumers, but the quality of fresh produce is gradually becoming a focus. In order to ensure the quality during the distribution process, fresh produce companies often choose third-party logistics (3PL) with cold chain resources to preserve freshness. 3PL’s fresh-keeping effort affects the demand for fresh produce, and plays an important role in the profitability of fresh produce companies as well as the overall performance of the fresh produce supply chain. However, the market demand uncertainty makes operational decisions on fresh-keeping effort and pricing difficult. It may result in too much or too little investment of fresh-keeping resources, leading to efficiency loss of the fresh produce supply chain. Compared with the supplier and 3PL, the retailer has an information advantage about demand forecast and may choose to share demand information to eliminate information asymmetry. Thus, there is a contradictory question of whether the retailer shares demand forecast information with the upstream members and whether upstream members transmit information to each other. To address this problem, the information sharing strategy in the fresh produce supply chain considering 3PL’s fresh-keeping effort is investigated.There are four parts as follows. First, considering the impact of the 3PL’s fresh-keeping effort on freshness, a multi-subject game model of the fresh produce supply chain is established under complete information sharing strategy, partial information sharing strategy and no information sharing strategy, and the optimal pricing and fresh-keeping effort decisions are analyzed. Second, information sharing preferences of supply chain members are analyzed and the retailer’s information sharing strategy is investigated. Third, based on the overall performance of the supply chain under different information sharing strategies, an incentive contract is designed to adjust the information sharing strategy. Finally, the impacts of the contract on the equilibrium decisions are discussed.The results indicate that only if the potential demand is relatively high, does the 3PL have the motivation to increase the fresh-keeping effort with the freshness elasticity increasing. It suggests that the development of cold chain is better off relying on a larger fresh produce market. The results also show that information sharing always benefits for the supplier while it hurts the 3PL. It is in the retailer’s best interest to share information only with the 3PL, but it cannot achieve because the 3PL will transmit the information to the supplier. As a result, when the freshness elasticity is relatively high, the retailer sharing information with both the supplier and the 3PL is the equilibrium strategy, while the freshness elasticity is relatively low, the equilibrium strategy is not to share information. The overall performance of the fresh produce supply chain is optimal when the retailer only shares information with the 3PL, so the retailer can design a transfer payment contract to circumvent the transmission of demand information between upstream members. The aim is different from the existing literature on information sharing incentives involving multiple subjects, so a new perspective on information sharing in the supply chain is provided. After that, with the high market demand information, the quality of fresh produce will be improved, and the selling price of fresh produce with high freshness elasticity will be lowered.

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    Cooperation Modes and Decision Optimization in Live Streaming Commerce
    Yongwei Cheng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2024, 32 (5): 297-306.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2589
    Abstract326)   HTML16)    PDF(pc) (1271KB)(690)       Save

    In recent years, as a distinctive emerging business form in the field of China's digital economy, the live streaming commerce has developed vigorously. Especially in the post-epidemic era, it will play an important role in solving a large number of social flexible employment and even reshaping e-commerce consumption behavior in China. Many well-known companies such as Gree Electric Appliances and Unilever have entered the live streaming market through self-operated live streaming or cooperative live streaming. However, with the diversification of participants in the live streaming, chaos emerges endlessly. Merchants, anchors, and live streaming platforms have suffered a lot of disputes and even resorted to law around price discounts, commission rates, pit fees, platform commissions, marketing and promotion expenses, etc. These phenomena essentially belong to the cooperation or contract governance issues of live streaming commerce.The motivation of this study is (1) What are the main cooperation modes or contract paradigms between merchants and anchors in live streaming? (2) How do they choose an efficient cooperation mode based on actual business scenarios? Are these cooperation modes short-term or long-term stable? (3) In their cooperation, how to determine important decision-making variables such as price discount rate, commission rate, and promotional expenses? How will these variables affect the sales and benefits of live streaming? (4) Can consumers really benefit from these cooperation? Thus, the cooperation modes and decision optimization of anchors and merchants are investigated in live streaming commerce. First, three sequential game modes are developed in which the commission rate is determined by the live streaming market and the commission rate is negotiated by both parties. Second, a new live streaming sales function is designed by introducing live streaming popularity value, price discount rate and live streaming conversion rate. Third, both parties’ optimal strategies, consumer welfare, competitive equilibrium and cooperation stability are examined under different cooperation modes.The results demonstrate that (1) When the commission rate is determined by the live streaming market, the two parties cannot reach a cooperation equilibrium under the six cooperation modes, and it is difficult to achieve long-term cooperation through profit sharing or cost sharing contracts. However, the introduction of a commission rate negotiation mechanism can improve the benefits of live streaming. (2) The current cooperation mode of “merchant decides the price discount rate, and the anchor is responsible for the conversion rate of live streaming” is actually a “prisoner's dilemma” cooperation mode with the lowest live streaming sales. "Just-needed" products or products with low profit margins that consumers are less price-sensitive are not suitable for live streaming commerce. When the market commission rate is high, it is the best cooperation mode for a strong "head" anchor to lead the live streaming. (3) The fixed fee for live streaming does not have a substantial impact on both parties’ selection of cooperation strategies, and there is always a strong “collusive” motive for anchors and merchants to make profits by falsely bidding on the market price (original price) of commodities and formulating high price discount rates. This study contributes to the governance and operation optimization of live streaming market.

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