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    Supply Chain Resilience: Adapting to Complexity—Based on the Perspective of Complex System Thinking
    SHENG Zhao-han, WANG Hai-yan, HU Zhi-hua
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (11): 1-7.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.11.001
    Abstract2138)      PDF (1038KB)(2396)      
    Building a resilient supply chain has risen from a concern at the enterprise level to a strategy at the industry, regional and national levels, and has become an important means to cope with the complex situation of current social and economic development. It is also an important means to improve the national security and competitiveness. On the basis of expounding that supply chain is a complex adaptive system of social multi center sharing and co-governance, it is pointed out that supply chain resilience is a sign of the ability of the behavior and function of the supply chain system to adapt to the complex changes of the environment as a whole. The complex integrity attribute of supply chain resilience requires us to form new research paradigms and methodologies through the paradigm shift of complex system thinking. The academic value of supply chain resilience theory is not mainly aimed at conventional problems, but depends on whether it is effective and efficient in dealing with supply chain instability, risk, emergency, functional degradation and other resilience crises. Supply chain resilience has a specific real world. To explain, analyze and reveal the complex phenomena and objective laws of supply chain resilience, it is pointed to pay full attention to the uniqueness and discourse context of the supply chain. No two realistic supply chain resilience mechanisms are identical. Supply chain resilience is a big and difficult problem in the field of supply chain research today, which has important academic frontiers, reality and challenges. It should be oriented and rooted in the rich practical soil of supply chain management in China, and consolidate the research foundation from the basic academic system, theoretical system and discourse system, rather than being too tied by the “disruption” and “no disruption” in the initial definition of supply chain resilience.
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    Top Level Layout and Specific Contents of Key Frontier Areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period: Towards Basic Scientific Theory and National Major Needs
    YU Yu-gang, ZHENG Sheng-ming, LI Jian-ping, LI Min-qiang, SHU Jia, WU Jian-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.001
    Abstract1514)      PDF (2154KB)(1760)      
    It is one of the important research contents of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan in Management Science and Engineering to determine key frontier areas which are suitable for China’s national conditions and can meet the requirements of China’s specific economic and social development objectives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The the research ideas and work of the key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are introduced in this paper. Firstly, the overall framework of key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is determined considering the discipline development goals of improving the research level of basic theory and serving the national major needs under the change of the times. The overall framework consisting of major driving factors and strategic research directions is obtained based on expert discussion and questionnaire survey. Then, the specific contents of key frontier areas, including 59 areas at discipline level and 8 areas at interdisciplinary level, are determined, through questionnaire collection, peer review, proposal submission and modification, etc. These key frontier areas gather the collective wisdom of the majority of experts and scholars and give clearer directional guidance, which is conducive to the advance layout of key basic fields and the rapid development of research fields related to national major needs.
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    Research on Human-machine Integration Complex Social System
    WANG Hong-wei, LI Jue, LIU Jian-guo, FAN Ying, MA Liang, HUO Hong, LIU Zuo-yi, DING Lie-yun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (7): 1-21.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.07.001
    Abstract1642)      PDF (1642KB)(1529)      
    The deepening of the new round of scientific-technological revolution is profoundly affecting and transforming the way of social living and production. The social system is evolving into a complex system coupled with human social space, information systems, and the physical environment. In the social system, actors, social relations, social structure, and social functions are profoundly changing. Human beings are entering a new social form characterized by the integration of human and machine. Such changes have brought significant challenges to the understanding, research, and governance of social systems. The definition of the human-machine integration social system is expounded from the perspective of the social system theory. It analyzes the unique connotation of human-machine integration complex social system from the aspects of social constituent subjects and structures, communication and media, and social differentiation and evolution. On this basis, the basic problems that need to be solved urgently in the research of human-machine integration complex social systems are proposed: (1) Human-machine collaboration in human-machine integration complex social systems; (2) Social networks in the environment of human-machine integration; (3) Emergence mechanism and evolution law of human-machine integration complex social system. Finally, aiming at the difficulties faced by previous social science research methods in solving the integrity problem of complex social systems, a research paradigm of complex social systems based on the system theory is proposed.
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    Artificial Intelligence and Management Transformation
    YANG Shan-lin, LI Xiao-jian, ZHANG Qiang, JIAO Jian-ling, YANG Chang-hui
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (6): 1-11.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.06.001
    Abstract1388)      PDF (2837KB)(1380)      
    Since the advent of deep learning, artificial intelligence has made tremendous progress, gradually moving from pure academic research to large-scale deployment. In particular, a series of application-level AI content generation algorithms such as text generation, image generation, and 3D model generation emerged in 2022, indicating that AI has first acquired the ability to produce digital content and is gradually breaking through many barriers, such as logical reasoning and common sense cognition, moving towards general AI. Based on a review of the development history and recent trends in AI, it focuses on exploring the impact of AI technology on the research paradigms of the natural and social sciences in this paper, analyzing the development laws of AI technology itself and its integration with domain-specific sciences. Finally, the transformative impact of AI on the management is analyzed.
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    Loan Default Forecasting Based on Zero-inflated Quantile Two-part Model
    WANG Xiao-yan, YUAN Teng, DUAN Xiang-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 1-13.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0441
    Abstract584)      PDF (1428KB)(1224)      
    Loan is not only a main means of solving the shortage of finances, but also an important business of financial institutions. Loan default forecasting is an essential content of bank risk management. To measure the loan credit risk of lenders, the number of days overdue is an informative variable commonly used. It shows whether the lender defaulted or not, but also the extent of default. However, this variable usually has an obvious zero-inflated characteristic, that is, there exists a quite large proportion of zero observations. Those zeros usually bring challenges to traditional credit default forecasting models.
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    Characteristics and Development Pathway of the Discipline of Management Science and Engineering within the Funding System of National Natural Science Foundation of China
    HUO Hong
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (1): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.01.001
    Abstract1021)      PDF (3843KB)(1142)      
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    The Evolutionary Game and Stability of the Regulatory Mechanism of Medical Protective Equipment Market under COVID-19 Epidemic
    LIANG Yan-ru, LIU Yi-qing
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 85-95.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0448
    Abstract450)      PDF (1706KB)(1102)      
    The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a surge in the demand for medical protective equipment such as masks. Some enterprises have engaged in disorderly behaviors such as price gouging and manufacturing and selling fake goods, which have made the prevention and control of the epidemic more difficult. At this time, the government is needed to supervise the market. It is necessary to design a practical solution that can stabilize the market order in the shortest time. In order to discuss the dynamic mechanism of medical protective equipment market supervision, a three-agent static evolutionary game among local government, protective equipment company, and consumer is established. Through the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the sensitivity index of each key parameter is less than 1, and the model has good robustness. Based on static evolutionary game model, a dynamic penalty model and a dynamic penalty-subsidy model are constructed in order. System dynamics is used to simulate the stability of each evolutionary equilibrium solution under different mechanisms, and Lyapunov's stability theorem is used to verify the equilibrium point of evolutionary stability. The results show that: (1) under a completely static mechanism, the game process of the three game players cannot reach a stable equilibrium state. (2)The introduction of dynamic punishment, subsidies and other methods can better suppress the behavioral fluctuations of the game subject, and urge protective equipment companies to take honest management as their better choice. (3) A new type of non-linear dynamic penalty-subsidy mechanism is proposed, under which the incentive effect is the best. And the protective equipment enterprise reaches the ideal stable situation on the fifth day. Some ideas for local governments are provided to design a reasonable and standardized medical protective equipment market plan under the COVID-19 epidemic situation.
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    A Robust Portfolio Selection Model Based on Investor’s Views
    ZHAO Da-ping, BAI Lin, FANG Yong, WANG Shou-yang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (9): 1-9.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2241
    Abstract658)      PDF (1033KB)(1053)      
    As an improvement of mean variance model,Black-Litterman model is one of the most popular methods in asset allocation. An analytical framework is provided that combines the investors’ expectation of the market with the market equilibrium rate of return, and several problems of the mean variance model are solved, such as lack of dispersion, high sensitivity to parameters, and so on. Therefore, Black-Litterman has been widely concerned by the academic community, and has achieved good results in practical application.
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    The Economics of Cloud Queueing System
    WANG Zhong-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 121-129.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0814
    Abstract623)      PDF (1099KB)(1018)      
    With the rise of intelligent reservation systems in congestion-prone service systems, the phenomena of “long waiting time” have been greatly alleviated. The simple operation of cloud queueing system has been well accepted by a large number of businesses and customers. A queuing-game model is established, and the impact of “cloud queuing system” on customers and service provider is analyzed theoretically in the framework of the current popular service industries. The following results are obtained in this paper. First, the equilibrium strategies for two types of customers are characterized. Second, it is found that the prevalence of cloud queueing can encourage the online customers to join, but it worsens the utilities of offline customers, and reduce their enthusiasm. Third, the revenue of service provider can be improved in the presence of cloud queueing, and a higher price should be set accordingly.
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    Optimal Decision-making Model of Environmental Pollution Group Events Considering Information Search
    LIU De-hai, ZHAO Yue, ZHANG Xu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 1-11.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1785
    Abstract316)      PDF (2544KB)(973)      
    With the advent of “user-operated media” era, how governments deal with the social crisis is a serious challenge. Environmental pollution group event is a prominent type of social crisis, generally known as “Not-In-My-Back-Yard”. As the information dominant party, the government fully understands the possible impact of the project on the local residents, but maybe block the key information for the implementation, which can lead to serious information asymmetry. Once the information is leaked, the environmental group events will break out likely. With the rapid development of information technology, especially the rise of user-operated-media communication, information channels become increasingly diversified. Facing the information asymmetry, the local residents can be easy to search, browse and acquire relevant knowledge. The search results will have an important impact on the occurrence and development of environmental group events.
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    The Impact Mechanism of Government Subsidy Approach on Manufacturer’s Decision-making in Green Supply Chain
    HE Yong, CHEN Zhi-hao, LIAO Nuo
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (6): 87-98.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1854
    Abstract511)      PDF (1842KB)(938)      
    There have been a large number of fruitful work on supply chain decision-making considering government subsidies, but only the decision-making issues of manufacturers’ independent R&D emission reduction has been studied, and the production decision making when manufacturers outsource emission reduction tasks has not been considered. None of the literatures have explored the impact of different government subsidy approaches on manufacturer’s emission reduction options. In view of the above consideration, a three-level green supply chain is constructed that composed of suppliers, manufacturers and consumers to explore this issue. Considering the manufacturer investing R&D to emission reduction or outsourcing the emission reduction task, the Stackelberg game model is employed to explore the decision-making issue under the government subsidy approaches basing on emission reduction R&D investment or emission reduction amount of unit product in green supply chain.From the perspective of manufacturer, the manufacturer’s decisions of two actions for emission reduction are compared when given government subsidy approach. Secondly, from the government’s perspective, when manufacturer’s action is given, the effects of emission reduction between two approaches of government subsidy are compared. Further, numerical simulation is conducted to analyze the impact of subsidy factors on supply chain’s decision-making under two subsidy approaches. The results show that when the government adopts the subsidy method basing on emission reduction R&D investment, manufacturer's profit of R&D emission by themselves is higher than outsourcing emission reduction task. When the government adopts the subsidies basing on emission reduction amount of unit product, the manufacturer’ profit and the emission reduction amount per unit of product in investing R&D to emission are more than the outsourcing emission reduction task. When manufacturer chooses to invest R&D to emission reduction, compared to subsidy approach of basing on emission reduction of unit product, the amount of emission reduction of the government subsidy basing on R&D investment is higher, and the profit is lower. When the manufacturer outsources the emission reduction task, the carbon reduction effect and the profit in the two approaches of government subsidies are identical. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the above results, and it shows that the subsidy coefficient has significant impact on the emission reduction and profit.These conclusions provide theoretical basis and significant implications for the government to formulate reasonable subsidy policy and the enterprise to choose proper emission reduction strategies.
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    An Incentive Model in Risk Management of Mega Project Considering Insurance Company Involved
    ZHU Jian-bo, SHI Qian-qian, ZHANG Jin-wen, SHENG Zhao-han
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (6): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2067
    Abstract605)      PDF (1906KB)(918)      
    There are often huge risk events existing in the construction of major projects. Insurance has become an important management tool to deal with the risks. The insurance company that has undertaken the insurance contract become the main stakeholder of risk loss with the owner. Mega projects often have the characteristics of large investment scale, high technical complexity, few similar cases, and open environment. For insurance institutions, general business of construction insurancecan achieve a stable operation by taking sufficient insurance policies and analysis based on big data, and these methods are not applicable or have poor effects on mega project insurance.Considering that insurance companies have strong willingness to participate in on-site risk management, an incentive model of the owner and contractor with the intervention of insurance company based on the principal-agent theory is established, and discusses the strategies and utilities of the participants under the two modes of common agency and exclusive agency. In this incentive mechanism, both the owner and the insurance institution are the roles of the principal and the contractor is the role of the agent. The effectiveness of the contractor’s risk efforts includes both social and economic benefits for the owner, but only economic benefits for insurance institutions. In risk management, there are inconsistencies in the interests of contractors and owners and insurance institutions. Contractors always want to pay less effort or opportunistic ways to obtain greater benefits, and owners and insurance institutions always want contractors can invest more risk management effort.The results show that under the common agency mode, the insurance company achieves active risk management, the utilities of the owner and insurance company are improved, and the owner provides a higher incentive coefficient than the exclusive agency model. The contractor adoptes more active risk management efforts under the common agency model, and its opportunistic behavior is suppressed. The optimal incentive coefficient of the owner is affected by the characteristics of the owner, contractor and the uncertainty of the external environment.
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    Blockchain-Based Dual-Channel Supply Chain Pricing Decision and Online Channel Selection Strategy
    LIANG Xi, XIAO Jin-feng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (5): 29-38.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1755
    Abstract517)      PDF (1609KB)(906)      
    Blockchain technology is widely used in various industries. In this paper, the application of blockchain technology to product certification in the supply chain can reduce the certification time and fidelity. In the two dual channel supply chain systems of online direct selling and online distribution, the Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer is the leader and the other participants are followers is considered. The sensitive coefficient of the consumer’s time for product inspection and evaluation, the false probability of the inspection result and the unit verification fee of the blockchain are introduced. The pricing and channel selection strategies of four dual channel supply chains are compared and analyzed. The results show that: when using the blockchain technology, the manufacturer’s profit under the direct selling mode is higher than that of the distribution mode, the traditional retailer’s profit under the direct selling mode is lower than that of the distribution mode, and the total profit of the supply chain under the direct selling mode is higher than that of the distribution mode; in the direct selling mode, the manufacturer’s profit, the traditional retailer’s profit and the total profit of the supply chain are higher than that of the distribution mode. In the distribution mode, when the fixed fee for manufacturers to introduce blockchain technology is small, the profits of manufacturers, traditional retailers, online retailers and the total profits of supply chain with blockchain technology are higher than those without blockchain technology.
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    Differential Game and Coordination Model for Green Supply Chain Based on Green Technology R&D
    CHENG Su-su, ZHANG Fan, LI Dong-dong
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 95-105.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1886
    Abstract408)      PDF (1254KB)(898)      
    Determining an optimal wholesale price is of importance to a firm composed of a single manufacturer and retailer since it significantly affects the decision-making of each profit center and then the firm’s profit. In this paper, the effect of different strategies on the profits of each center and the firm is investigated based on a differential game among members of the green supply chain, i.e., centralized scenario and decentralized scenario. The manufacturer is responsible for providing green products and sells these products to end customers through the retailer who controls the retail price.
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    Pricing and Green Input Decisions of a Competitive Supply Chain with Consumers’ Product Preference and Different Channel Powers
    CHEN Ke-bing, KONG Ying-qi, LEI Dong
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (5): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1924
    Abstract550)      PDF (1400KB)(896)      
    With the increase of customers’ environmental awareness and the intensification of market competition, the right sales decisions are significantly important for any green product enterprises to enter, occupy, consolidate and expand their markets. For this, a supply chain system consisting of one traditional manufacturer, one green manufacturer and one retailer is developed. Depending on the channel powers of two manufacturers in the system, three supply chain game models, i.e., traditional-manufacturer-leader Stackelberg game model, green-manufacturer-leader Stackelberg game model and Nash game model between both manufacturers, are considered. How the different channel power structures and the consumers’ green preference affect the decisions of wholesale prices, retail prices, order quantities, green input and supply chain profits is mainly investigated in this study. Furthermore, a cost-sharing and two-part-tariff contract is proposed to coordinate such a supply chain, and the Pareto improvement condition for each supply chain member’s profit is given.
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    Research on Government Subsidy Strategy of Low-carbon Supply Chain Based on Block-chain Technology
    Ling-rong ZHANG,Bo PENG,Chun-qi CHENG
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (10): 49-60.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2362
    Abstract537)   HTML64)    PDF (907KB)(871)      

    With the continuous progress of China's economy and society, green development has become a national strategy, and carbon emission reduction is an important measure. The government can promote the investment of enterprises' emission reduction technology and increase social welfare through moderate low-carbon subsidies to enterprises. The introduction of block-chain technology into the low-carbon supply chain can improve the coordination degree of low-carbon decision-making among the main bodies of the supply chain and promote the emission reduction of enterprises. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the government subsidy strategy of low-carbon supply chain based on block-chain technology. In this paper, a two-level low-carbon supply chain composed of a manufacturer and a retailer is taken as the research object, and the government subsidy strategy of the low-carbon supply chain is taken as the research topic. The government invests in the construction of the application platform of block-chain technology, and the supply chain enterprises pay to use the block-chain technology. Under this background, considering consumers' low-carbon preference and green trust, this paper set up before and after the application block chain technology under R&D investment subsidy policy or output subsidy policy of these four situations of three stages Stackelberg game models, in which the government takes the lead and manufacturers and retailers follow and the government to the social welfare maximization as the goal, manufacturers and retailers in order to maximize their own interests as the goal, through comparing the four kinds of situations of the optimal rate of social welfare, carbon reduction and low carbon product production, discusses the government low carbon subsidies strategy of optimal problem. And the validity of the results is verified through the analysis of examples. The results show that when the product of consumers' low-carbon preference coefficient and green trust coefficient is greater than a certain fixed value, the government can obtain higher social welfare through output subsidies, and promote enterprises to reduce emissions more effectively. Governments have been able to boost demand for low-carbon products through output subsidies. When the cost coefficient of emission reduction approaches infinity, the demand for low-carbon products when the government implements output subsidies is 4 times that when the government implements R&D investment subsidies. When the single-cycle cost sharing of block-chain platform and the unit cost of enterprises' application of block-chain technology are less than a certain threshold, the government's construction of block-chain platform can obtain higher social welfare, promote enterprises' emission reduction and improve consumers' demand for low-carbon products. Therefore, the government should increase investment in science and technology, and to make efforts to reduce the block chain platform construction cost and prolong the cycle of block chain platform, for low carbon green products to create a fair, just and open market environment, and control technology of enterprise application block chain unit cost within a reasonable range, encourage enterprises to actively application block chain technology, in order to obtain higher social welfare.

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    Several Priority Frontiers in Theoretical and Methodological Breakthroughs of Management Science and Engineering
    SHU Jia, DING Yi, NI Wen-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 27-30.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.005
    Abstract590)      PDF (473KB)(859)      
    Under the guidance and support of the Department of Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the research team summarizes the key frontiers in the development of management science and engineering discipline for the “14th Five-Year Plan” based on surveys and several rounds of expert reviews. The article reports several key frontiers that urgently need theoretical and methodological breakthroughs from two perspectives: operations research and business analytics, respectively.
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    Is Gold a Safe Haven of the Stock Market?——Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlation Mixed Data Sampling Model
    TAN De-kai, TIAN Li-hui
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 14-24.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1285
    Abstract391)      PDF (1372KB)(857)      
    Gold has always been regarded as an important safe-haven asset. With the increase in global uncertainties in recent years, gold investment is once again favored by investors. Whether gold can be used as a safe haven for the stock market investors is a hot topic in academic literature. However, the existing literature not only has inconsistent conclusions, but also does not give an empirical explanation of why gold hedging function has changed.
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    Game Model of Blockchain Adoption and Product Pricing in Retail Supply Chain
    JI Qing-kai, ZHANG Feng-lin, FANG Gang, HU Xiang-pei
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2023, 31 (3): 102-112.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0315
    Abstract427)      PDF (1863KB)(844)      
    Recently, food contamination incidents have occurred frequently. To deal with food safety issues and enhance brand image, many large retail companies (e.g., Walmart) have deployed blockchain technology to improve the transparency of their supply chains., which can make the source traceable and the responsibility accountable. Since then, retailers have begun to encourage more suppliers to join their own blockchain platforms. However, when there is competition among suppliers, suppliers must not only weigh the advantages (brand image enhancement) and disadvantages (cost) of joining the blockchain platform, but also consider the multi-party game with competitors and retailers. Therefore, it is meaningful to study the participation incentive and preference of supply chain members for blockchain.
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    Credit Risk Evaluation Model and Empirical Research Based on Focal Loss Modified Cross-Entropy Loss Function
    YANG Lian, SHI Bao-feng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 65-75.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2188
    Abstract411)      PDF (2015KB)(824)      
    Credit evaluation model plays an important role in helping financial institutions to identify default risk. However, due to the imbalance of the proportion of default and non-default samples, there are the phenomena of over-recognition for non-default samples and under-recognition for default samples. Some of default samples, named hard samples, are difficult to be identified. Therefore, the key to improve the prediction performance of the model is to improve its ability to recognize the hard samples. In practice, the existing deep learning credit evaluation model, which takes the Cross Entropy as the loss function, considers that there is no difference between the contribution of the hard samples and the simple samples to the target loss. It affects the effective identification of hard samples by the model.
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