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    Top Level Layout and Specific Contents of Key Frontier Areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period: Towards Basic Scientific Theory and National Major Needs
    YU Yu-gang, ZHENG Sheng-ming, LI Jian-ping, LI Min-qiang, SHU Jia, WU Jian-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.001
    Abstract961)      PDF (2153KB)(1228)      
    It is one of the important research contents of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan in Management Science and Engineering to determine key frontier areas which are suitable for China’s national conditions and can meet the requirements of China’s specific economic and social development objectives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The the research ideas and work of the key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are introduced in this paper. Firstly, the overall framework of key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is determined considering the discipline development goals of improving the research level of basic theory and serving the national major needs under the change of the times. The overall framework consisting of major driving factors and strategic research directions is obtained based on expert discussion and questionnaire survey. Then, the specific contents of key frontier areas, including 59 areas at discipline level and 8 areas at interdisciplinary level, are determined, through questionnaire collection, peer review, proposal submission and modification, etc. These key frontier areas gather the collective wisdom of the majority of experts and scholars and give clearer directional guidance, which is conducive to the advance layout of key basic fields and the rapid development of research fields related to national major needs.
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    Supply Chain Resilience: Adapting to Complexity—Based on the Perspective of Complex System Thinking
    SHENG Zhao-han, WANG Hai-yan, HU Zhi-hua
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (11): 1-7.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.11.001
    Abstract820)      PDF (1038KB)(994)      
    Building a resilient supply chain has risen from a concern at the enterprise level to a strategy at the industry, regional and national levels, and has become an important means to cope with the complex situation of current social and economic development. It is also an important means to improve the national security and competitiveness. On the basis of expounding that supply chain is a complex adaptive system of social multi center sharing and co-governance, it is pointed out that supply chain resilience is a sign of the ability of the behavior and function of the supply chain system to adapt to the complex changes of the environment as a whole. The complex integrity attribute of supply chain resilience requires us to form new research paradigms and methodologies through the paradigm shift of complex system thinking. The academic value of supply chain resilience theory is not mainly aimed at conventional problems, but depends on whether it is effective and efficient in dealing with supply chain instability, risk, emergency, functional degradation and other resilience crises. Supply chain resilience has a specific real world. To explain, analyze and reveal the complex phenomena and objective laws of supply chain resilience, it is pointed to pay full attention to the uniqueness and discourse context of the supply chain. No two realistic supply chain resilience mechanisms are identical. Supply chain resilience is a big and difficult problem in the field of supply chain research today, which has important academic frontiers, reality and challenges. It should be oriented and rooted in the rich practical soil of supply chain management in China, and consolidate the research foundation from the basic academic system, theoretical system and discourse system, rather than being too tied by the “disruption” and “no disruption” in the initial definition of supply chain resilience.
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    Loan Default Forecasting Based on Zero-inflated Quantile Two-part Model
    WANG Xiao-yan, YUAN Teng, DUAN Xiang-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 1-13.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0441
    Abstract421)      PDF (1427KB)(903)      
    Loan is not only a main means of solving the shortage of finances, but also an important business of financial institutions. Loan default forecasting is an essential content of bank risk management. To measure the loan credit risk of lenders, the number of days overdue is an informative variable commonly used. It shows whether the lender defaulted or not, but also the extent of default. However, this variable usually has an obvious zero-inflated characteristic, that is, there exists a quite large proportion of zero observations. Those zeros usually bring challenges to traditional credit default forecasting models.
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    Optimal Decision-making Model of Environmental Pollution Group Events Considering Information Search
    LIU De-hai, ZHAO Yue, ZHANG Xu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 1-11.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1785
    Abstract192)      PDF (2543KB)(882)      
    With the advent of “user-operated media” era, how governments deal with the social crisis is a serious challenge. Environmental pollution group event is a prominent type of social crisis, generally known as “Not-In-My-Back-Yard”. As the information dominant party, the government fully understands the possible impact of the project on the local residents, but maybe block the key information for the implementation, which can lead to serious information asymmetry. Once the information is leaked, the environmental group events will break out likely. With the rapid development of information technology, especially the rise of user-operated-media communication, information channels become increasingly diversified. Facing the information asymmetry, the local residents can be easy to search, browse and acquire relevant knowledge. The search results will have an important impact on the occurrence and development of environmental group events.
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    A Robust Portfolio Selection Model Based on Investor’s Views
    ZHAO Da-ping, BAI Lin, FANG Yong, WANG Shou-yang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (9): 1-9.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2241
    Abstract493)      PDF (1033KB)(858)      
    As an improvement of mean variance model,Black-Litterman model is one of the most popular methods in asset allocation. An analytical framework is provided that combines the investors’ expectation of the market with the market equilibrium rate of return, and several problems of the mean variance model are solved, such as lack of dispersion, high sensitivity to parameters, and so on. Therefore, Black-Litterman has been widely concerned by the academic community, and has achieved good results in practical application.
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    The Economics of Cloud Queueing System
    WANG Zhong-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 121-129.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0814
    Abstract467)      PDF (1098KB)(818)      
    With the rise of intelligent reservation systems in congestion-prone service systems, the phenomena of “long waiting time” have been greatly alleviated. The simple operation of cloud queueing system has been well accepted by a large number of businesses and customers. A queuing-game model is established, and the impact of “cloud queuing system” on customers and service provider is analyzed theoretically in the framework of the current popular service industries. The following results are obtained in this paper. First, the equilibrium strategies for two types of customers are characterized. Second, it is found that the prevalence of cloud queueing can encourage the online customers to join, but it worsens the utilities of offline customers, and reduce their enthusiasm. Third, the revenue of service provider can be improved in the presence of cloud queueing, and a higher price should be set accordingly.
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    The Influence of New Energy Vehicle Consumption Promotion Policy on the Purchase Intention of Potential Consumers
    LI Chuang, YE Lulu, WANG Liping
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2021, 29 (10): 151-164.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1845
    Abstract532)      PDF (1411KB)(817)      
    How to improve the purchase intention of potential consumers is very important to promote the development of new energy vehicle market. Based on SOR theory, the influence of new energy vehicle consumption promotion policy on potential consumers is analyzed by using structural equation model through a questionnaire survey in four counties of Luoyang City, Henan Province. The results show that: ① The consumption promotion policies affect the purchase intention of potential consumers through perceived value and perceived risk, among which the charging policy has the largest impact, the right of way policy is the second, the publicity policy is the third, and the purchase policy has the smallest impact. Therefore, it is unlikely to happen that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will drop sharply after the cancellation of car purchase policy. ② Potential consumers pay more attention to the perceived value of new energy vehicles in the early stage and less attention to the use risk in the later stage. The more complete the publicity policy, car purchase policy and charging policy are, the higher the perceived value of new energy vehicles for potential consumers is, the more incentive they are to purchase. ③ Among different groups, the adjustment of income and education background on the purchase intention of new energy vehicles is more obvious. Potential consumers with high income and high education pay more attention to their use rights and interests after purchase, such as the right of way policy and charging policy, while potential consumers with low education and low income pay more attention to their consumption rights and interests in the early stage, such as the economic incentive of purchase policy. In terms of the impact path of every policy on perceived risk, the perceived risk of low-income and low educated groups is generally more significant than that of high educated and high-income groups. Finally, this paper proposes that the consumption promotion policy on new energy vehicle should pay attention to the improvement of the charging market, gradually transfer the economic subsidy policy to the charging infrastructure and the preferential policy of the right of way, and implement the differentiating and diversified promotion policies for the different potential consumers.
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    Corporate Social Responsibility, Mediacoverage and Stock Pricecrash Risk
    HUANG Jin-bo, CHEN Ling-xi, DING Jie
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (3): 1-12.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2183
    Abstract527)      PDF (1182KB)(757)      
    In theory, the disclosure of corporate social responsibility may mitigate or increase the stock price crash risk. As an important carrier of social responsibility disclosure, news media may weaken or strengthen the effect. These problems above become hot issues in the field of corporate finance in recent years. The bidirectional mechanism of social responsibility disclosure on stock price crash risk is first derived in theory, and then news media is introduced to study its possible transmission path. Based on the panel data of all companies in Chinese A-share market from 2010 to 2018, the research show that companies can reduce the risk of stock price crash by disclosing corporate social responsibility index. CSR fulfillment will increase the number of media reports, and the increasing number of media reports will decrease the risk of stock price crash. In other words, media reports play an internal role in the process of CSR affecting the risk of stock price crash. Further research shows that shareholders’ responsibility in the CSR index has the greatest influence on the risk of stock price crash, while the influence of suppliers’, customers’ and consumers’ rights and interests and social responsibility is not significant. The mediating effect of positive media reports and negative media reports is stronger than neutral media reports.
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    An Incentive Model in Risk Management of Mega Project Considering Insurance Company Involved
    ZHU Jian-bo, SHI Qian-qian, ZHANG Jin-wen, SHENG Zhao-han
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (6): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2067
    Abstract456)      PDF (1905KB)(729)      
    There are often huge risk events existing in the construction of major projects. Insurance has become an important management tool to deal with the risks. The insurance company that has undertaken the insurance contract become the main stakeholder of risk loss with the owner. Mega projects often have the characteristics of large investment scale, high technical complexity, few similar cases, and open environment. For insurance institutions, general business of construction insurancecan achieve a stable operation by taking sufficient insurance policies and analysis based on big data, and these methods are not applicable or have poor effects on mega project insurance.Considering that insurance companies have strong willingness to participate in on-site risk management, an incentive model of the owner and contractor with the intervention of insurance company based on the principal-agent theory is established, and discusses the strategies and utilities of the participants under the two modes of common agency and exclusive agency. In this incentive mechanism, both the owner and the insurance institution are the roles of the principal and the contractor is the role of the agent. The effectiveness of the contractor’s risk efforts includes both social and economic benefits for the owner, but only economic benefits for insurance institutions. In risk management, there are inconsistencies in the interests of contractors and owners and insurance institutions. Contractors always want to pay less effort or opportunistic ways to obtain greater benefits, and owners and insurance institutions always want contractors can invest more risk management effort.The results show that under the common agency mode, the insurance company achieves active risk management, the utilities of the owner and insurance company are improved, and the owner provides a higher incentive coefficient than the exclusive agency model. The contractor adoptes more active risk management efforts under the common agency model, and its opportunistic behavior is suppressed. The optimal incentive coefficient of the owner is affected by the characteristics of the owner, contractor and the uncertainty of the external environment.
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    The Evolutionary Game and Stability of the Regulatory Mechanism of Medical Protective Equipment Market under COVID-19 Epidemic
    LIANG Yan-ru, LIU Yi-qing
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 85-95.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0448
    Abstract255)      PDF (1705KB)(729)      
    The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a surge in the demand for medical protective equipment such as masks. Some enterprises have engaged in disorderly behaviors such as price gouging and manufacturing and selling fake goods, which have made the prevention and control of the epidemic more difficult. At this time, the government is needed to supervise the market. It is necessary to design a practical solution that can stabilize the market order in the shortest time. In order to discuss the dynamic mechanism of medical protective equipment market supervision, a three-agent static evolutionary game among local government, protective equipment company, and consumer is established. Through the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the sensitivity index of each key parameter is less than 1, and the model has good robustness. Based on static evolutionary game model, a dynamic penalty model and a dynamic penalty-subsidy model are constructed in order. System dynamics is used to simulate the stability of each evolutionary equilibrium solution under different mechanisms, and Lyapunov's stability theorem is used to verify the equilibrium point of evolutionary stability. The results show that: (1) under a completely static mechanism, the game process of the three game players cannot reach a stable equilibrium state. (2)The introduction of dynamic punishment, subsidies and other methods can better suppress the behavioral fluctuations of the game subject, and urge protective equipment companies to take honest management as their better choice. (3) A new type of non-linear dynamic penalty-subsidy mechanism is proposed, under which the incentive effect is the best. And the protective equipment enterprise reaches the ideal stable situation on the fifth day. Some ideas for local governments are provided to design a reasonable and standardized medical protective equipment market plan under the COVID-19 epidemic situation.
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    Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization
    CAI Jian-ping, WANG Jing, JIAO Zi-hao
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0945
    Abstract224)      PDF (1221KB)(726)      
    Faced with the severity of public health emergencies, particularly the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), “precise screening” is the important means to implement the precise prevention and control of public health emergencies. However, how to scientifically and reasonably develop precise screening strategies for public health emergencies in order to not only quickly cut off the transmission route of the epidemic but also avoid the negative impact of excessive epidemic screening on the social economy? By classifying the population and introducing the “testing utility”, the precise screening strategy is studied, which will help prevent and control the public health emergencies in the future.
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    Research on Information Sharing Mechanism of Emission Reduction in Supply Chain Based on Blockchain under Information Asymmetry
    LI Jian, YI Lan, XIAO Yao
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2021, 29 (10): 131-139.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1076
    Abstract543)      PDF (1556KB)(721)      
    information asymmetry is the main factor that hinders the supply chain multi-agent collaborative emission reduction. Aiming at the efficiency loss of supply chain collaborative emission reduction caused by consumers' hidden low-carbon preference, by comparing with the supply chain emission reduction information screening mechanism based on principal-agent theory, a supply chain collaborative emission reduction information sharing mechanism based on blockchain drive is designed.The research shows that consumer’s extra information rent is the main factor leading to the loss of emission reduction efficiency in the supply chain. Manufacturer and supplier can obtain additional information sharing benefits by sharing a certain proportion of the cost of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” technology investment.The information sharing mechanism of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” can effectively improve the revenue of the supply chain while eliminating the information rent, and there is an optimal proportion to balance the revenue of manufacturer and supplier and optimize the revenue of the supply chain.The information sharing mechanism of “blockchain+collaborative emission reduction” can effectively improve the collaborative emission reduction efficiency of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain, which is one of the important paths to promote the emission reduction task in the 14th Five Year Plan period.
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    Investigating Bank-Firm Systemic Risk within a Multilayer Network
    MA Qian-ting, YANG Wen-ke, HE Jian-min
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2021, 29 (12): 1-14.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0803
    Abstract369)      PDF (4138KB)(688)      
    Little is known about the bank-firm systemic risk from the perspective of the diversification of related businesses connections between banks and firms. To investigate the systemic risk of bank-firm system from the perspective of lending relationships with different loan terms and common asset holding relationships of different investment cycles, a multilayer network model is proposed. Based on the multilayer network model, the respective impact of multilayer network structures and the behaviors between banks and firms on the systemic risk is explored. The results are as follows. Regarding the multilayer network structures, the systemic risk under the combined impact of the multilayer network is significantly greater than the combined effect of any two-layer network, and the heterogeneities of multilayer network nodes has capability to resist the systemic risk. As for bank-firm subject behaviors, the longer loan term and the longer investment cycle increase the systemic risk to a certain extent, while the investment cycle is more sensitive. Decreasing the proportion of long-term investments and increasing the selection proportion of external assets can reduce the systemic risk, while the selection ratio of borrowing objects has little effect on the systemic risk relatively. The research of this paper is conducive to digging deep into the internal relationships among the multilayer network structures, the bank-firm subject behaviors and the systemic risk from a theoretical level. The above research results have certain theoretical reference value and practical guidance significance for the supervisory authorities to prevent the systemic risk and maintain the stability of the financial market.
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    Differential Game and Coordination Model for Green Supply Chain Based on Green Technology R&D
    CHENG Su-su, ZHANG Fan, LI Dong-dong
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 95-105.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1886
    Abstract229)      PDF (1253KB)(688)      
    Determining an optimal wholesale price is of importance to a firm composed of a single manufacturer and retailer since it significantly affects the decision-making of each profit center and then the firm’s profit. In this paper, the effect of different strategies on the profits of each center and the firm is investigated based on a differential game among members of the green supply chain, i.e., centralized scenario and decentralized scenario. The manufacturer is responsible for providing green products and sells these products to end customers through the retailer who controls the retail price.
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    Research on Systemic Risk Contagion Effect of Chinese Financial Institutions Considering Network Public Opinion Index
    OUYANG Zi-sheng, YANG Xi-te, HUANG Ying
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (4): 1-12.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0044
    Abstract416)      PDF (2378KB)(683)      
    The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has aroused considerable interest in systemic risk, and has triggered rethinking of systemic financial risks by international organizations, financial regulators and scholars in various countries. The crisis connected socio-economic entities such as banks, real estate, insurance companies, hedge funds, and consumers into a community of economic interests, sharing risk factors. Financial crisis refers that the values of most financial assets drop together or one institution’s failure could propagate to other institutions, thus, financial crisis is systemic and results in the collapse of whole financial system. In fact, during the financial crisis, losses spread across financial institutions and the financial system is threatened. At the same time, the contagion of financial risks is becoming more and more frequently, and extreme risk events, including “cash crunch” and “curcuit breakers”, have caused the spread of network public opinion, and made systemic financial risks spread rapidly in the capital market.
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    Is Gold a Safe Haven of the Stock Market?——Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlation Mixed Data Sampling Model
    TAN De-kai, TIAN Li-hui
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 14-24.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1285
    Abstract217)      PDF (1371KB)(676)      
    Gold has always been regarded as an important safe-haven asset. With the increase in global uncertainties in recent years, gold investment is once again favored by investors. Whether gold can be used as a safe haven for the stock market investors is a hot topic in academic literature. However, the existing literature not only has inconsistent conclusions, but also does not give an empirical explanation of why gold hedging function has changed.
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    Study on Identification of Financing Risks for Transport Infrastructure Construction under a Pluralistic Integrated Mode
    SUO Wei-lan, ZHANG Jin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 25-34.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1207
    Abstract217)      PDF (1301KB)(669)      
    The transition from a single mode to a pluralistic integrated mode has become an inevitable choice to broaden the financing channels for transport infrastructure construction under the current new situation. The pluralistic integrated mode can avoid the limitations of a single mode and form the combined strengths of multiple modes. Nevertheless, it also increases the uncertainty and complexity of financing, which puts forward the higher requirements for financing risk identification.
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    A Review of Behavioral Influence and Value Application for Online Reviews
    WANG An-ning, ZHANG Qiang, PENG Zhang-lin, YANG Shan-lin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2021, 29 (12): 191-202.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1451
    Abstract489)      PDF (1532KB)(658)      
    With the development of social networks, a large number of online reviews have been generated. Research on online reviews has attracted extensive attention from scholars in the fields of marketing, information systems, and product development. At present, great progress has been made for online review research. However, due to the wide range of research on online reviews, there is no systematic conceptual framework. It lacks an overall understanding of online reviews. Therefore, this paper attempts to comprehensively summarize the online review research literature. From the perspective of behavioral influence, online reviews affect consumers ’purchasing behavior and enterprises’ business decisions. For the perspective of value application, online reviews are an important information source to obtain consumer needs. Enterprises gradually realize the value of online reviews for recommendation services, market analysis, and product development. On the basis of the literature review, the current technological development is combined with the market environment to derive three characteristics of online reviews: diversity, dynamics, and integration, which broadens the research boundary and provides the research opportunities.
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    Factors Affecting the Risk Contagion of the Stock Market: An Evidence from Industry-Level Data
    WU Jin-yan, WANG Peng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 57-68.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0138
    Abstract135)      PDF (2924KB)(655)      
    Statistics show that the phenomenon of “thousand-share hitting limit down” has appeared for 18 times during the period from June 1, 2007 to December 31, 2017. CoVaR combined with time-varying SJC-Copula method is used to measure the degree of inter-industry risk contagion in the Chinese stock market and test the influential factors on the basis of real linkage and financial linkage. The main results show the inter-industry risk contagion of Chinese stock market is heterogeneity and time-varying. Industries that are closely related to other industries and poor in information transparency are more contagious to other industries. Similarly, industries that are closely related to other industries, poor in information transparency and illiquidity in stocks are more susceptible to risk from other industries. Investor optimism is inversely correlated with risk contagion among industries, which explains the time-varying of risk contagion to some extent.
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    Several Priority Frontiers in Theoretical and Methodological Breakthroughs of Management Science and Engineering
    SHU Jia, DING Yi, NI Wen-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 27-30.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.005
    Abstract334)      PDF (472KB)(640)      
    Under the guidance and support of the Department of Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the research team summarizes the key frontiers in the development of management science and engineering discipline for the “14th Five-Year Plan” based on surveys and several rounds of expert reviews. The article reports several key frontiers that urgently need theoretical and methodological breakthroughs from two perspectives: operations research and business analytics, respectively.
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