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    Top Level Layout and Specific Contents of Key Frontier Areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period: Towards Basic Scientific Theory and National Major Needs
    YU Yu-gang, ZHENG Sheng-ming, LI Jian-ping, LI Min-qiang, SHU Jia, WU Jian-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.001
    Abstract961)      PDF (2153KB)(1228)      
    It is one of the important research contents of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan in Management Science and Engineering to determine key frontier areas which are suitable for China’s national conditions and can meet the requirements of China’s specific economic and social development objectives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The the research ideas and work of the key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are introduced in this paper. Firstly, the overall framework of key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is determined considering the discipline development goals of improving the research level of basic theory and serving the national major needs under the change of the times. The overall framework consisting of major driving factors and strategic research directions is obtained based on expert discussion and questionnaire survey. Then, the specific contents of key frontier areas, including 59 areas at discipline level and 8 areas at interdisciplinary level, are determined, through questionnaire collection, peer review, proposal submission and modification, etc. These key frontier areas gather the collective wisdom of the majority of experts and scholars and give clearer directional guidance, which is conducive to the advance layout of key basic fields and the rapid development of research fields related to national major needs.
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    Supply Chain Resilience: Adapting to Complexity—Based on the Perspective of Complex System Thinking
    SHENG Zhao-han, WANG Hai-yan, HU Zhi-hua
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (11): 1-7.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.11.001
    Abstract820)      PDF (1038KB)(994)      
    Building a resilient supply chain has risen from a concern at the enterprise level to a strategy at the industry, regional and national levels, and has become an important means to cope with the complex situation of current social and economic development. It is also an important means to improve the national security and competitiveness. On the basis of expounding that supply chain is a complex adaptive system of social multi center sharing and co-governance, it is pointed out that supply chain resilience is a sign of the ability of the behavior and function of the supply chain system to adapt to the complex changes of the environment as a whole. The complex integrity attribute of supply chain resilience requires us to form new research paradigms and methodologies through the paradigm shift of complex system thinking. The academic value of supply chain resilience theory is not mainly aimed at conventional problems, but depends on whether it is effective and efficient in dealing with supply chain instability, risk, emergency, functional degradation and other resilience crises. Supply chain resilience has a specific real world. To explain, analyze and reveal the complex phenomena and objective laws of supply chain resilience, it is pointed to pay full attention to the uniqueness and discourse context of the supply chain. No two realistic supply chain resilience mechanisms are identical. Supply chain resilience is a big and difficult problem in the field of supply chain research today, which has important academic frontiers, reality and challenges. It should be oriented and rooted in the rich practical soil of supply chain management in China, and consolidate the research foundation from the basic academic system, theoretical system and discourse system, rather than being too tied by the “disruption” and “no disruption” in the initial definition of supply chain resilience.
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    Loan Default Forecasting Based on Zero-inflated Quantile Two-part Model
    WANG Xiao-yan, YUAN Teng, DUAN Xiang-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 1-13.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0441
    Abstract421)      PDF (1427KB)(903)      
    Loan is not only a main means of solving the shortage of finances, but also an important business of financial institutions. Loan default forecasting is an essential content of bank risk management. To measure the loan credit risk of lenders, the number of days overdue is an informative variable commonly used. It shows whether the lender defaulted or not, but also the extent of default. However, this variable usually has an obvious zero-inflated characteristic, that is, there exists a quite large proportion of zero observations. Those zeros usually bring challenges to traditional credit default forecasting models.
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    Optimal Decision-making Model of Environmental Pollution Group Events Considering Information Search
    LIU De-hai, ZHAO Yue, ZHANG Xu
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 1-11.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1785
    Abstract192)      PDF (2543KB)(882)      
    With the advent of “user-operated media” era, how governments deal with the social crisis is a serious challenge. Environmental pollution group event is a prominent type of social crisis, generally known as “Not-In-My-Back-Yard”. As the information dominant party, the government fully understands the possible impact of the project on the local residents, but maybe block the key information for the implementation, which can lead to serious information asymmetry. Once the information is leaked, the environmental group events will break out likely. With the rapid development of information technology, especially the rise of user-operated-media communication, information channels become increasingly diversified. Facing the information asymmetry, the local residents can be easy to search, browse and acquire relevant knowledge. The search results will have an important impact on the occurrence and development of environmental group events.
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    A Robust Portfolio Selection Model Based on Investor’s Views
    ZHAO Da-ping, BAI Lin, FANG Yong, WANG Shou-yang
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (9): 1-9.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2241
    Abstract493)      PDF (1033KB)(858)      
    As an improvement of mean variance model,Black-Litterman model is one of the most popular methods in asset allocation. An analytical framework is provided that combines the investors’ expectation of the market with the market equilibrium rate of return, and several problems of the mean variance model are solved, such as lack of dispersion, high sensitivity to parameters, and so on. Therefore, Black-Litterman has been widely concerned by the academic community, and has achieved good results in practical application.
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    The Economics of Cloud Queueing System
    WANG Zhong-bin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 121-129.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0814
    Abstract467)      PDF (1098KB)(818)      
    With the rise of intelligent reservation systems in congestion-prone service systems, the phenomena of “long waiting time” have been greatly alleviated. The simple operation of cloud queueing system has been well accepted by a large number of businesses and customers. A queuing-game model is established, and the impact of “cloud queuing system” on customers and service provider is analyzed theoretically in the framework of the current popular service industries. The following results are obtained in this paper. First, the equilibrium strategies for two types of customers are characterized. Second, it is found that the prevalence of cloud queueing can encourage the online customers to join, but it worsens the utilities of offline customers, and reduce their enthusiasm. Third, the revenue of service provider can be improved in the presence of cloud queueing, and a higher price should be set accordingly.
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    Corporate Social Responsibility, Mediacoverage and Stock Pricecrash Risk
    HUANG Jin-bo, CHEN Ling-xi, DING Jie
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (3): 1-12.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2183
    Abstract527)      PDF (1182KB)(757)      
    In theory, the disclosure of corporate social responsibility may mitigate or increase the stock price crash risk. As an important carrier of social responsibility disclosure, news media may weaken or strengthen the effect. These problems above become hot issues in the field of corporate finance in recent years. The bidirectional mechanism of social responsibility disclosure on stock price crash risk is first derived in theory, and then news media is introduced to study its possible transmission path. Based on the panel data of all companies in Chinese A-share market from 2010 to 2018, the research show that companies can reduce the risk of stock price crash by disclosing corporate social responsibility index. CSR fulfillment will increase the number of media reports, and the increasing number of media reports will decrease the risk of stock price crash. In other words, media reports play an internal role in the process of CSR affecting the risk of stock price crash. Further research shows that shareholders’ responsibility in the CSR index has the greatest influence on the risk of stock price crash, while the influence of suppliers’, customers’ and consumers’ rights and interests and social responsibility is not significant. The mediating effect of positive media reports and negative media reports is stronger than neutral media reports.
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    An Incentive Model in Risk Management of Mega Project Considering Insurance Company Involved
    ZHU Jian-bo, SHI Qian-qian, ZHANG Jin-wen, SHENG Zhao-han
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (6): 1-10.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2067
    Abstract456)      PDF (1905KB)(729)      
    There are often huge risk events existing in the construction of major projects. Insurance has become an important management tool to deal with the risks. The insurance company that has undertaken the insurance contract become the main stakeholder of risk loss with the owner. Mega projects often have the characteristics of large investment scale, high technical complexity, few similar cases, and open environment. For insurance institutions, general business of construction insurancecan achieve a stable operation by taking sufficient insurance policies and analysis based on big data, and these methods are not applicable or have poor effects on mega project insurance.Considering that insurance companies have strong willingness to participate in on-site risk management, an incentive model of the owner and contractor with the intervention of insurance company based on the principal-agent theory is established, and discusses the strategies and utilities of the participants under the two modes of common agency and exclusive agency. In this incentive mechanism, both the owner and the insurance institution are the roles of the principal and the contractor is the role of the agent. The effectiveness of the contractor’s risk efforts includes both social and economic benefits for the owner, but only economic benefits for insurance institutions. In risk management, there are inconsistencies in the interests of contractors and owners and insurance institutions. Contractors always want to pay less effort or opportunistic ways to obtain greater benefits, and owners and insurance institutions always want contractors can invest more risk management effort.The results show that under the common agency mode, the insurance company achieves active risk management, the utilities of the owner and insurance company are improved, and the owner provides a higher incentive coefficient than the exclusive agency model. The contractor adoptes more active risk management efforts under the common agency model, and its opportunistic behavior is suppressed. The optimal incentive coefficient of the owner is affected by the characteristics of the owner, contractor and the uncertainty of the external environment.
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    The Evolutionary Game and Stability of the Regulatory Mechanism of Medical Protective Equipment Market under COVID-19 Epidemic
    LIANG Yan-ru, LIU Yi-qing
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 85-95.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0448
    Abstract255)      PDF (1705KB)(729)      
    The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a surge in the demand for medical protective equipment such as masks. Some enterprises have engaged in disorderly behaviors such as price gouging and manufacturing and selling fake goods, which have made the prevention and control of the epidemic more difficult. At this time, the government is needed to supervise the market. It is necessary to design a practical solution that can stabilize the market order in the shortest time. In order to discuss the dynamic mechanism of medical protective equipment market supervision, a three-agent static evolutionary game among local government, protective equipment company, and consumer is established. Through the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the sensitivity index of each key parameter is less than 1, and the model has good robustness. Based on static evolutionary game model, a dynamic penalty model and a dynamic penalty-subsidy model are constructed in order. System dynamics is used to simulate the stability of each evolutionary equilibrium solution under different mechanisms, and Lyapunov's stability theorem is used to verify the equilibrium point of evolutionary stability. The results show that: (1) under a completely static mechanism, the game process of the three game players cannot reach a stable equilibrium state. (2)The introduction of dynamic punishment, subsidies and other methods can better suppress the behavioral fluctuations of the game subject, and urge protective equipment companies to take honest management as their better choice. (3) A new type of non-linear dynamic penalty-subsidy mechanism is proposed, under which the incentive effect is the best. And the protective equipment enterprise reaches the ideal stable situation on the fifth day. Some ideas for local governments are provided to design a reasonable and standardized medical protective equipment market plan under the COVID-19 epidemic situation.
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    Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization
    CAI Jian-ping, WANG Jing, JIAO Zi-hao
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 1-8.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0945
    Abstract224)      PDF (1221KB)(726)      
    Faced with the severity of public health emergencies, particularly the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), “precise screening” is the important means to implement the precise prevention and control of public health emergencies. However, how to scientifically and reasonably develop precise screening strategies for public health emergencies in order to not only quickly cut off the transmission route of the epidemic but also avoid the negative impact of excessive epidemic screening on the social economy? By classifying the population and introducing the “testing utility”, the precise screening strategy is studied, which will help prevent and control the public health emergencies in the future.
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    Differential Game and Coordination Model for Green Supply Chain Based on Green Technology R&D
    CHENG Su-su, ZHANG Fan, LI Dong-dong
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 95-105.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1886
    Abstract229)      PDF (1253KB)(688)      
    Determining an optimal wholesale price is of importance to a firm composed of a single manufacturer and retailer since it significantly affects the decision-making of each profit center and then the firm’s profit. In this paper, the effect of different strategies on the profits of each center and the firm is investigated based on a differential game among members of the green supply chain, i.e., centralized scenario and decentralized scenario. The manufacturer is responsible for providing green products and sells these products to end customers through the retailer who controls the retail price.
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    Research on Systemic Risk Contagion Effect of Chinese Financial Institutions Considering Network Public Opinion Index
    OUYANG Zi-sheng, YANG Xi-te, HUANG Ying
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (4): 1-12.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0044
    Abstract416)      PDF (2378KB)(683)      
    The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has aroused considerable interest in systemic risk, and has triggered rethinking of systemic financial risks by international organizations, financial regulators and scholars in various countries. The crisis connected socio-economic entities such as banks, real estate, insurance companies, hedge funds, and consumers into a community of economic interests, sharing risk factors. Financial crisis refers that the values of most financial assets drop together or one institution’s failure could propagate to other institutions, thus, financial crisis is systemic and results in the collapse of whole financial system. In fact, during the financial crisis, losses spread across financial institutions and the financial system is threatened. At the same time, the contagion of financial risks is becoming more and more frequently, and extreme risk events, including “cash crunch” and “curcuit breakers”, have caused the spread of network public opinion, and made systemic financial risks spread rapidly in the capital market.
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    Is Gold a Safe Haven of the Stock Market?——Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlation Mixed Data Sampling Model
    TAN De-kai, TIAN Li-hui
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 14-24.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1285
    Abstract217)      PDF (1371KB)(676)      
    Gold has always been regarded as an important safe-haven asset. With the increase in global uncertainties in recent years, gold investment is once again favored by investors. Whether gold can be used as a safe haven for the stock market investors is a hot topic in academic literature. However, the existing literature not only has inconsistent conclusions, but also does not give an empirical explanation of why gold hedging function has changed.
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    Study on Identification of Financing Risks for Transport Infrastructure Construction under a Pluralistic Integrated Mode
    SUO Wei-lan, ZHANG Jin
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (10): 25-34.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1207
    Abstract217)      PDF (1301KB)(669)      
    The transition from a single mode to a pluralistic integrated mode has become an inevitable choice to broaden the financing channels for transport infrastructure construction under the current new situation. The pluralistic integrated mode can avoid the limitations of a single mode and form the combined strengths of multiple modes. Nevertheless, it also increases the uncertainty and complexity of financing, which puts forward the higher requirements for financing risk identification.
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    Factors Affecting the Risk Contagion of the Stock Market: An Evidence from Industry-Level Data
    WU Jin-yan, WANG Peng
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (8): 57-68.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0138
    Abstract135)      PDF (2924KB)(655)      
    Statistics show that the phenomenon of “thousand-share hitting limit down” has appeared for 18 times during the period from June 1, 2007 to December 31, 2017. CoVaR combined with time-varying SJC-Copula method is used to measure the degree of inter-industry risk contagion in the Chinese stock market and test the influential factors on the basis of real linkage and financial linkage. The main results show the inter-industry risk contagion of Chinese stock market is heterogeneity and time-varying. Industries that are closely related to other industries and poor in information transparency are more contagious to other industries. Similarly, industries that are closely related to other industries, poor in information transparency and illiquidity in stocks are more susceptible to risk from other industries. Investor optimism is inversely correlated with risk contagion among industries, which explains the time-varying of risk contagion to some extent.
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    Several Priority Frontiers in Theoretical and Methodological Breakthroughs of Management Science and Engineering
    SHU Jia, DING Yi, NI Wen-jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 27-30.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.005
    Abstract334)      PDF (472KB)(640)      
    Under the guidance and support of the Department of Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the research team summarizes the key frontiers in the development of management science and engineering discipline for the “14th Five-Year Plan” based on surveys and several rounds of expert reviews. The article reports several key frontiers that urgently need theoretical and methodological breakthroughs from two perspectives: operations research and business analytics, respectively.
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    Research on Technology-Driven Management Science and Engineering
    LI Jian-ping, WU Deng-sheng, HAO Jun
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (5): 9-14.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.002
    Abstract336)      PDF (679KB)(635)      
    Technological innovation leads to technological change and technology that accelerates change is reshaping the new pattern and situation of the world’s political, economic, and social development. A series of management decision-making problems in new scenarios and new environments, such as new generation mobile communication, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, rail transit and construction engineering, medical engineering, energy, and environmental engineering, has opened a new situation in the research of management science and engineering disciplines and put forward new requirements and challenges. By systematically sorting out and summarizing relevant literature and projects, the development trend of critical technologies in management science and engineering is expounded on. It combines the results of questionnaires and interviews with authoritative experts in the field. Based on the integration of new technologies and the application of new industries, the leading research directions of management science and engineering-driven by technology are summarized.
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    Supply Chain Profit Game and Equilibrium Pricing
    CHEN Jin-xiao, CHEN Jian
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (9): 128-139.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0165
    Abstract310)      PDF (1135KB)(624)      
    A supply chain involves multiple enterprises. It is often complicated to deal with the relationship between the benefits of member enterprises and the overall benefit of the supply chain. There are even conflicts of interest between the upstream and downstream, resulting in the decline of the overall benefit. Only by optimizing the overall benefit and designing an effective profit distribution mechanism to achieve the coordination of member enterprises, can the supply chain achieve the optimality. The nonparametric method for efficiency evaluation has been widely used in this field. However, the simple optimization of efficiency does not consider the substitutability and reallocation of resources, and ignores the optimization space released by the adjustment of input and output structures. For efficiency decomposition, the compromise or unilateral optimal solution is not in line with enterprises’ goal of maximizing their own interests. Based on the nonparametric modeling method, a general analysis framework is established for the profit optimization of a two-echelon supply chain, considering the impacts of both technical advancement and resource substitutability. How the cooperative game can promote the supply chain to realize the optimality under the centralized case is discussed. The distribution of the optimized overall profit of the supply chain is studied via a profit game of member enterprises. The game relations between member enterprises are established based on their individual profit baselines. It is identified that there may be multiple equilibrium schemes for profit distribution. To obtain an optimal profit combination of member enterprises, a bargaining model is proposed. The pricing of intermediate products to achieve the optimal equilibrium distribution scheme is given. An illustrative example is provided to examine the above analysis on supply chain profits. The profits of the ten supply chains involved as a result of technical efficiency improvement and resource reallocation are compared with their current profit levels. Also, the profit distribution results without bargaining are compared to that with bargaining. It is shown that the proposed model is effective to realize the profit optimization of supply chains and the equilibrium profit distribution to member enterprises with the appropriate pricing of intermediate products. A modeling framework is thus provided for a preliminary quantitative analysis on the improvement of supply chain profits through cooperative games. The proposed model for a two-echelon structure can be extended to multi-echelon or even network structures.
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    Research on Channel Competition Strategy of Financial Recommendation Service
    YANG Mei, WANG Zong-run
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (9): 10-22.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0912
    Abstract334)      PDF (4795KB)(614)      
    Due to the limited cognitive ability of investors in financial products, they mainly rely on external “value signals” to form their “aspirations” of earnings expectations to simplify the investment process.Thus, financial recommendation service competition is the inevitable result when digital platforms have successfully expanded their business to areas traditionally covered by banks. In this study, a new three-party dual-channel game model is considered where the platform steers investors by recommending firms taking into account both the commissions firms offer and the prices they set,and the bankmakes use of investors’ perception of value and rivals’ characteristics to take advantage of customers’ misunderstanding of “aspirations” by adjusting the sales intensity of financial advisors θ. It is assumed that the naive investors will inspect only the product ranked first by the intermediary, while sophisticated investors will find the financial product with the largest expected revenue on the platform through sequential searches. Based on revenue maximization, all investors decide whether to buy products in either the bank or the platform. Finally, according to the equilibrium solution and numerical analysis, the research shows that the effective allocation of financial service intensity enhances the competitiveness of banks, but the investor surplus is often completely deprived. Interestingly, in the competition with the platform, the bank has added additional motivation to provide financial knowledge literacy, and may prefer a strong rather than a weak enemy. In addition, the bank should attempt to control the cost of services to avoid the risk of regulators blocking the sale of financial products to prevent malicious competition. The model in this paper further confirms that the investors’ perceived value plays a very important role in regulating the bank’s marketing investment and provides various feasible suggestions for the bank looking to implement precision marketing based on data analysis.
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    Urban Resource Allocation, Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China
    LIU Feng-gen, WANG Yi-ding, YAN Jian-jun, ZHANG Min
    Chinese Journal of Management Science    2022, 30 (7): 31-46.   DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2253
    Abstract158)      PDF (1595KB)(609)      
    Differences in the level of urban resource allocation lead to population mobility and population agglomeration, which is a main factor for the rise of China’s real estate prices. From the perspective of the natural attributes and basic functions of commercial housing, the growth of urban population also plays a role in promoting the rise of real estate prices.Higher levels of public resources motivate the population to move from low resource allocation areas to the high allocation area. The resulting resource competition generated in the process of population agglomeration will inevitably lead to increasing real estate prices in the area.Under the background of increasing domestic and international uncertainties and the downward pressure on the macro economy, this paper reveals the formation mechanism of real estate price changes and the underlying driving factors which play an important role in the implementation of China’s current real estate market policies aimed at stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations and effective regulation of real estate prices.
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