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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 August 2019, Volume 27 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Measuring the Integrated Risk of Carbon Financial Market by a Non-parametric Copula-CVaR Model
    CHAI Shang-lei, ZHOU Peng
    2019, 27 (8):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.001
    Abstract ( 563 )   PDF (2245KB) ( 427 )   Save
    In recent years, all countries in the world have focused on tackling climate change and reducing carbon emissions. Currently, it is internationally recognized that the carbon emission trading mechanism is the most effective market mechanism to deal with climate change and control carbon emissions. It can guide funds to the low-carbon industrial chain with the help of price signals. Low-carbon technology will be the strategic commanding point in the future global competition. The development of this industry requires an effective carbon financial capital market to drive a large amount of social capital to low-carbon technology industry. Carbon finance came into being in this context. It is a modern financial innovation that relies on carbon trading, promotes energy conservation and emission reduction by means of financial technology, and serves sustainable economic development. Commercial banks and other financial institutions in China are facing complex and unstable market environments when they participate into international carbon financial market. It is necessary to develop scientific models for measuring the integrated risk of carbon financial market by considering the multiple sources and interdependent relationship of different risk factors. In this paper, the nonparametric kernel estimation method is used to determine the marginal distributions of price risk and exchange risk in carbon financial market. Then, the goodness-of-fit test is used to choose the optimal Copula function that can depict the nonlinear and dynamic dependent structure of risk factors, by which the integrated Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is measured effectively. Some findings are drawn by Kupiec back testing and comparison with the conventional risk measurement techniques. The nonparametric Copula-CVaR model can overcome the limitations of the conventional methods in measuring the dependency of multi-source risk factors. When determining the marginal distributions, this approach can avoid model setting risk and parameter estimating error caused by parametric methods. It gives full consideration to tail risk and provides a new way for the measurement of the integrated risk in carbon financial market. The main contributions of the research work are as follows. (1) At the theoretical level, the multi-source risks of the carbon market are clarified and the deficiency of the single risk measurement theory is made up in the existing literature. (2) At the practical level, the accuracy of multi-source integration risk measure is improved in the carbon financial market, which provides decision-making reference for the financial institutions to participate in the international carbon finance business.
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    Study on Characteristics and Influence Factors of Time-varying Anomalies in China's Stock Market
    YIN Li-bo, WEI Ya, HAN Fu-ling
    2019, 27 (8):  14-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.002
    Abstract ( 488 )   PDF (1370KB) ( 180 )   Save
    Recent years, the issue of asset pricing and quantitative investment has received great attention in China's stock market.Similar to the result of the developed countries, many empirical researches indicate that anomalies which refers that CAPM always have little power to explain the cross section of average returns on assets sorted by many kinds of stocks' characters are found in China's stock market.Furthermore, some studies find that the anomalies may be time varying, which implies that the anomaliesare prominent only in some special periods, while in the other periods the anomalies are often weakened or vanished. In fact, the time variation of the anomalies should be a very significant issue in both academy and practicesectors, because the ignoring of the time variation would have a negative impact on both pricing efficiency of the factor pricing model and the market timing ability of the invest strategy based on the anomalies.
    Motivated by the above discussion, using the China's A shares' data from January 1995 to April 2017, the time varying characteristics of several kinds of anomalies based on the conditional CAPM are investigated in this paper, which could capture the dynamic information of the risk-adjusted return and market risk. To avoid the bias of state variable selection, the nonparametric method proposed by Ang and Kristensen is chosen to estimate the dynamic model. First, the long-term existence of the anomalies is tested based on the conditional CAPM. The result indicates that the anomalies are still existent, which implies that the conditional CAPM is not significantly helpful to explain the anomalies. Second, the anomalies' time variation is tested by the Hausman Test and graph thedynamictendency of the anomalies. In the result, it is found that the time variation of the anomalies is statistically significant, and from the long term, the China's stock market anomalies have experienced a type transformation, which result in that the significant level of B/M and P/E anomalies are gradually weakened and even disappeared, while the significant level of the other anomalies are gradually emerging and still have a tendency to strengthen. Third, with the regression analysis, the drivers of the anomalies are discussed, which can be separated into fundamental-type and market-type, including size, B/M, P/E effect and IVOL, turnover,market risk effect respectively. It is concluded that for the fundamental-type anomaliesthe main drivers are the macroeconomic factors, which means this type of anomalies reflect the information of macroeconomic risk, while for the market-type anomaliesthe main drivers are the market factors, which means this type of anomalies reflect the market's inefficiency. Finally, the drivers of the conditional β are also analyzed based on the conditional CAPM.Contrary to theory expectation, the result provides the evidence that the conditional β seems more likely to be associated with market factors rather than macroeconomic factors. This implies that the conditional β can't fully reflect the information about economic risk, which may be one of the reasons for the CAPM's failure to explain the anomalies.
    This study enriches the literatures on China's stock market anomalies from dynamic perspective. The conclusion tells us that time variation shouldn't be ignored when constructing pricing factors in factor pricing model based on anomalies. Moreover, it is useful to promote the market timing ability of the invest strategy based on the China's stock market anomalies.
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    The Operational Efficiency and Analysis of Influencing Factors of Chinese Commercial Bank: Perspective of “Triple Bottom Line”
    XIA Qiong, YANG Feng, WU Hua-qing
    2019, 27 (8):  26-36.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.003
    Abstract ( 501 )   PDF (1306KB) ( 134 )   Save
    The bank industry has played a very important role in our economy. With the need of sustainable development, the evaluation of bank efficiency is hard to be proceded from a single dimension. Based on the concept of the triple bottom line, the indexes are proposed to evaluate economic, social and environmental efficiency of Chinese commercial bank, respectively. SBM-DEA models are adopted to gauge the efficiency of bank industry in three dimensions. SBM-Pearson models are used to examine the relationships of the three efficiency scores. SBM-SUR models are selected to identify the factors of influencing the three efficiency scores. The results show that:(1) the joint-stock commercial banks and the urban commercial banks appear to be more efficient than the state-owned commercial banks in economic and social efficiency, but in the aspect of environmental efficiency, the state-owned commercial banks become more efficient than others. (2) there is no conflict of the three efficiency scores in Chinese commercial bank and the relationship among economic, social, and environmental efficiency is significant positive, but we have not found any significant relations between social and environmental efficiency. (3) in terms of influencing factors, the asset size, operational ages, types of bank and return on asset have significant positive influence on economic efficiency; different types of bank have different influence on social efficiency, and meanwhile, the asset size and types of bank also have significant influence on environmental efficiency.
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    A Study on Confidence, Monetary Policy and China's Economic Fluctuation Based on TVP-VAR Model
    LIU Xiao-jun, JIANG Wei, HU Jing-song
    2019, 27 (8):  37-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.004
    Abstract ( 831 )   PDF (1280KB) ( 192 )   Save
    Entrepreneurial confidence and consumer confidence play an important role in macroeconomic development, and entrepreneurial confidence and consumer confidence are often overlooked in traditional monetary policy literature. At the same time, due to the different changes of China's macro-economy, in order to study the times-varying characteristics of China's macroeconomic fluctuations, the data are selected from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017 and the TVP-VAR model is adopted, which can reflect the varying characteristics, to analyze the relationship between entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence and monetary policy, the influence of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence and monetary policy on inflation rate and economic growth rate respectively. In particular, the summary is as follows.
    Method:In order to examine the time-varying characteristics of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, monetary policy and Chinese macroeconomic fluctuation, TVP-VAR model is used to estimate. The complete estimate equation is as follows:
    yt=Xtβt+At-1Σtεt
    Where, yt={Rt,M2t,QXt,XXt,CPIt,GDPt},let at=(a21,t,a31,t,a32,t,a41,t,…,a,kk-1t)',which is the column vector formed by the non-zero and one elements in the lower triangle, meanwhile, let ht=(h1t,…,hkt)',hjt=logσjt2,j=1,…,k,t=s+1,…,n.
    Data:Six variables of entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, interest rate, money growth rate, economic growth rate and inflation rate are chosen to construct TVP-VAR model. Among them, the entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence respectively with QX and XX, as the 7th interbank borrowing rate data can well reflect the supply and demand of short-term funds, so it is used to express interest rate R; M2 expresses the monthly growth rate of the generalized currency by the rate of currency growth; The CPI is used to represent the inflation rate, and the growth rate of GDP is represented by the growth rate of GDP. In order to eliminate the effect of seasonal trend, this paper makes census X-12 seasonal adjustment is made to all the data. All data is from wind database.
    Results:(1) The increase of entrepreneurs' confidence and consumer confidence has expanded domestic demand and promoted the development of macroeconomic by influencing the intermediary variables of monetary policy. (2) The public will anticipate the future through the adjustment of monetary policy, therefore, the adjustment of monetary policy can affect the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumer confidence, and thus have an impact on domestic demand. (3) From a time-variant perspective, the unit positive impact of entrepreneurial confidence in the entire sample range will promote economic growth; The increase in the growth rate of money in the short term to promote economic growth, in the long run will hinder economic growth, consumer confidence, interest rates and economic growth rate in the short-term reverse changes in the relationship, In the long-term positive changes in the relationship.
    Contribution:The application of TVP-VAR model provides a new research idea for the research of related problems, meanwhile, the research content of this paper is very important for the effective implementation of monetary policy, the prevention of excessive inflation and the promotion of high-quality economic growth.
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    Promotion Incentive, Regional Favoritism and Environmental Performance: Evidence from the Listed Firms in China
    CHEN Qiu-ping, PAN Yue, XIAO Jin-li
    2019, 27 (8):  47-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.005
    Abstract ( 437 )   PDF (1098KB) ( 177 )   Save
    Local government officials' behavior choices have been influenced by promotion incentive and their regional favoritism. Choosing the A-share listed companies in China during 2009 and 2015 as a study sample,the influence of local government transition on corporate environmental performance is empirically studied. Meanwhile the mechanism behind this association between local government transition and corporate environmental performance is analyzed from the perspectives of promotion incentive and regional favoritism. It is found that the corporate environmental performance would improve when the new official was from a same city. Meanwhile the corporate environmental performance would worsen when the new official was from a different city. These findings remain robust after a battery of robustness checks. After analyzing the effect mechanism, it is found that it mainly because of promotion incentive of the new official from a different city, and regional favoritism of the new official from a same city. Not only the research on the corporate environmental social responsibility from the perspectives of promotion incentive and regional favoritism of local government officials is enrichd, but also a new way to understand the decision-making model of local government officials and corporate governance from a larger picture is offered.
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    Research on the Relationship between Environmental Regulation Intensity and China's Economic Growth Rate——based on Physical Capital and Human Capital Perspective
    JI Jian-yue, ZHANG Yi, REN Wen-han
    2019, 27 (8):  57-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.006
    Abstract ( 382 )   PDF (1048KB) ( 124 )   Save
    Recently, the dilemma between environmental protection and economic growth has caused widely concerns, it is urgent to explore the influence of environmental regulation intensity on economic growth. Prior research has mainly focused on the compliance cost theory and Porter hypothesis. Important issues that have long been ignored are the effect of environmental regulations on physical capital and human capital. However, their role in promoting sustainable growth and improving the level of residents' welfare cannot be neglected. Thus, the relationship between environmental regulation intensity and China's economic growth rate is studied in this paper from the perspective of physical capital and human capital. Based on the Overlapping Generation Model (OLG), environmental regulation, health human capital and physical capital are brought into an analytical framework. Theoretical analyses show that strict environmental regulations brought about both positive and negative influences to economic growth by reducing productive capital investment and promoting health human capital. When the intensity of environmental regulation is low, there is a positive correlation between environmental regulation intensity and economic growth, but excessive environmental regulation is negatively correlated with economic growth. On this basis, using data from China at the provincial level for the period 1997-2015, the inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation intensity and economic growth is examined by GMM. It is suggested that the appropriate environmental regulations can improve the environmental quality standards without hurting the economy.
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    Credit Risk Modeling and Analysis for Crowdfunding Market of Electric Vehicle Charging Pile based on Complex Network
    ZHANG Qi, LI Yan, WANG Ge, ZHU Li-jing, HU Ying, WANG Le
    2019, 27 (8):  66-74.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.007
    Abstract ( 482 )   PDF (2312KB) ( 253 )   Save
    With plenty of economic and environmental advantages, there is an urgent need to promote the development of Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, the insufficiency of charging facilities has become a major bottleneck for EV uptake. For its high externality and long payback period, it is difficult to raise funds by traditional financing tools. As a novel financing mechanism, internet-based crowdfunding has attracted increasing attentions.However, lacking of targeted legislation or supervision aggravate information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, which further drives high the default risk and undermines the investors' confidence. To figure out the impacts of information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, a multi-agent simulation under social network scale is conducted, and the data of Chinese charging pile market is applied in the presented study. Both herd effect and scale effect in crowdfunding are also analyzed in sensitivity analysis.The results indicate:(1) Investors are more sensitive to the negative attitudes of surrounding people;(2)The crowdfunding project is more attractive while it exhibits strong scale effect; (3)Dividend ratio is positively related to project join ratio, while it exhibits non-monotonic influence on default ratio and initiator's profit; (4)The penalty is efficient to cut down the high default ratio according to the results of the presented model.
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    Influences of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on Chinese Enterprises' Operating Performances
    ZHANG Wen, XU Xiao-dong
    2019, 27 (8):  75-86.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.008
    Abstract ( 344 )   PDF (1355KB) ( 114 )   Save
    Clean development mechanism (CDM) is currently the most essential mechanism that enables international cooperation in emissions reduction. The rapid growth of CDM projects earlier in China relied on policy support other than enterprises' motivation, resulting in a sharp decline in CDM participation at the expiration of Kyoto protocol. Actually, CDM's contribution is not confined to environmental modification or emissions trading revenue. A large portion of its real value, such as promoting overseas business and saving production cost, has long been neglected. Thus, the purpose of this research is to reveal and verify the potential value of CDM to encourage more domestic enterprises to participate in it. Using a sample of domestic companies engaged in CDM from 2006 to 2015, the specific impacts of CDM projects on corporate's export revenues and production cost ratio are explored. In testifying the influence of CDM projects on corporate's export proportion, an OLS regression model is primarily used to identify a significant increase in export proportion after 2012, a big year for CDM. A control group of corporates not engaged in CDM is later included for DID analysis of which the result suggests that the increase in export proportion for the treatment group is significantly larger than that of the control group. Inconsistent with our former assumption, reduction of production cost ratio at the operation of a CDM project is only witnessed in several particular industries. Further analysis suggests that the specific traits of such industries include higher profitability, better liquidity and lower leverage. Moreover, companies from those industries tend to develop mainstream types of CDM projects. Given above empirical evidence, it is concluded that the promotion of export proportion is valid for all companies involved in CDM while the reduction in production cost ratio only works for specific industries. This study has enriched research about CDM's influences on enterprises' operating performances, which provides clear guidance for corporate managers to make CDM-related decisions and for governments to formulate supporting policies.
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    The Flight Delay Propagation Analysis based on Airport Busy State
    XU Bao-guang, LIU Qian-qian, GAO Min-gang
    2019, 27 (8):  87-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.009
    Abstract ( 410 )   PDF (1056KB) ( 151 )   Save
    Global airline industry has been plagued by flight delays. During the flight operation, for the plane executing flight string tasks, the busy state of airport has a direct effect on the turnaround time of plane, further more effects the on-time departure performance of the consecutive flight. When constructing the prediction Bayesian Network(BN) model of delay propagation, the influence of airport busy state is considered which is described by aircraft movement per hour and whose relative factors are discovered through Bayesian structure learning. The ten times ten-fold cross validation results show that compared with the propagation BN model without consideration of airport busy state, the BN model considering airport busy state shows more accuracy in predicting departure delay.
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    Untruthful Opinions Idenfication and Product Adoption in Consumer Advice Network
    SHAO Peng, HU Ping
    2019, 27 (8):  96-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.010
    Abstract ( 362 )   PDF (1406KB) ( 98 )   Save
    The consumer advice network is a special type of social network in a social commerce environment. Users are able to establish online social relationship and sharing product evaluation, and search product related information from network members. As merchants start to spread product information through influential users in the consumer advice network, this activity lead to the emergence of social advertising, or user-generated advertising. In this background, merchants may rely on external incentives to stimulate uses to post and diffuse social advertising on the consumer advice network. By using social advertising tools, merchants make higher-than-true product quality evaluations for their products, or make lower-than-true product quality evaluations for competitors' products. Such deceptive evaluations are called untruthful evaluations. Based on the concept of continuous opinion and discrete behavior, the model of product adoption is constructed, and the user opinion learning rules are set up in the model. That is, the users who have not yet purchased the product learning the opinion from those who have higher honest index. The influence of social advertising, opinion learning rounds on opinion evolution and product adoption are studied by means of agent-based computational experiment. The results show that the model can reduce the product adoption proportion of users who are misleaded by the untruthful opinions. The untruthful opinions identification mechanism can effectively identify the "low quality with high evaluation" and "high quality with low evaluation" and reduce the misleading effect from untruthful opinions. The increase of opinion learning rounds can increase the recognition of untruthful opinion. This Research overcome the limitations in existing product diffusion model, such as no distinction between information diffusion and product adoption, regardless of the authenticity of product information, regardless of the different stages of product adoption.
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    Monopoly Pricing for Cloud Services Considering Computing Resource Capacity
    WU Shi-liang, ZHONG Qin, ZHANG Qing-min
    2019, 27 (8):  107-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.011
    Abstract ( 347 )   PDF (1184KB) ( 155 )   Save
    Cloud services are access services for virtual computing resources, of which the two important factors affecting pricing decision are customer value differences and resource capacity constraints. Aiming at the two common pricing methods of fixed price and usage-based pricing in the cloud service market, the general assumptions are proposed and a nonlinear pricing model aiming at maximizing the profit of monopolist is constructed. The model is solved and the implication of the model is revealed. Numerical examples are illustrated to compare the two pricing methods from the aspects of market coverage, shadow price of computing resources, monopolist's profit and customer surplus. The main findings include four aspects. First, monopolist's profit, customers' surplus and computing resources demand are affected by customer type distribution. Efforts should be made to grasp customer type distribution information. Second, usage-based pricing should be used when computing resources are sufficient. Third, market coverage is related to the customer type distribution and the available computing resources, and the market coverage is larger when pricing by usage. Last, increasing the computing resources is conducive to improving social welfare. Theoretical and methodological support are provided for cloud service providers' pricing decisions.
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    Study on Heterogeneous Electric Vehicle Routing and Batterycharging Problem with the Consideration of Differentiated Service Cost
    GUO Fang, YANG Jun, YANG Chao
    2019, 27 (8):  118-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.012
    Abstract ( 438 )   PDF (1159KB) ( 227 )   Save
    With the substantial support from government and development of environmental awareness, electric vehicles grow more and more popular in logistics fields. Small package shipping is in the back end of logistics distribution and performs deliveries from local deports to customers. Logistic operational cost may be affected by many factors, including heterogeneous vehicles, staff assignment and differentiated service time. An effective utilization of logistics deliverer can bring economic benefits, which has been paid more attention by logistics enterprise gradually. Logistics distribution service needs the cooperation of the professional delivery staffs, electric vehicles and numerous customers, with a great deal of interplay between staff assignment, vehicle capacity and customer distribution. A heterogeneous electric vehicles routing and battery charging problem is presented with the consideration of differentiated service time. The problem is formulated as an integer programming model. Then, a heuristic MCWGATS and is proposed to solve the problem. MCWGATS is composed of four parts:modified Clark and Wright saving algorithm, hybrid genetic algorithm, local search and tabu search. The modified savings mechanism is used to optimize the service routes in the path subproblem. And then hybrid genetic algorithm is proposed to get assignment strategies. Finally, current strategy is optimized by LS and TS. Compared with the MIP solver of CPLEX on small-size instances, MCWGATS can solve the problem within a shorter computing time and get reasonable solutions. Then, parameter analysis of heterogeneous vehicles and differentiated service time is systematically conducted for this problem. The results show that the model contributes to help logistics firms to improve the utilization efficiency of such resources as staff, electric vehicles, service time, etc.
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    The Research on Partner Selection of New Ventures' Brand Alliance used Computational Experiment
    HUANG Chun-ping, ZHAO Lin, LIU Pu, DU Yang-yang, ZHANG Fu-xing
    2019, 27 (8):  129-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.013
    Abstract ( 307 )   PDF (4425KB) ( 154 )   Save
    Brand alliance is one of the effective strategies for new ventures to overcome their growth disadvantages. In order to improve the success rate of brand alliance partner selection for new ventures, new ventures' brand partner selection mechanism is explored using computational experiments method.Firstly, based on the complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, process model of brand alliance partner selection is built. Secondly, the agent behavior conceptual model of new venture is constructed as the core agent in brand alliance system, and its interaction multi-agent model with other partnersand environmental agents. Thirdly, the external competitive environment and the agents' key characteristics which effect the formation of the alliance are focused on, such as the partner venture's type, brand equity, relationship commitment and brand alliance fit, argues that the brand alliance partner selection is a selection and discovery process of rules. Finally, the brand partner selection mechanism'computational experiment is computed. The results show that as the external environment changes dynamically, more and more new ventures will choose brand alliance strategy, but the choice between mature enterprises and new venture as a joint partner is not affected by the change of external environment. When a new venture chooses a partnership, its characteristics do not affect whether it adopts an alliance strategy. Regardless of its characteristics, the core venture prefers to the mature company as a partner; at the same time, the partnership commitment has the most significant impact on the partner selection, and the brand equity is the second one. The effect of brand alliance fit is not significant. When responding to the alliance request of the core enterprises, the candidate agents mainly depend on the degree of the evaluation by the core enterprises, followed by the brand equity. The research results have significant value for the management practice of new ventures.
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    Sharing Information in a Dual-channel Supply Chain under Network Externality
    SHI Chun-lai, NIE Jia-jia
    2019, 27 (8):  142-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.014
    Abstract ( 440 )   PDF (977KB) ( 228 )   Save
    With the advance of information technology, retailers can predict market demand accurately due to rich market data from customers. The setting where the retailer shares her private demand information with upstream manufacturer not only reduces the bullwhip effect between them, but also enables the manufacturer to better determine their wholesale prices in respond to uncertain market. Unluckily, according to investigations and reports fromKeifer and Forrester's research, just a few retailers have an incentive to share their private demand information with manufacturers. In other words, almost retailers do not share their demand information. The intuition is that retailers are always harmed by the more significant double marginalization problem in the dual-channel supply chain with informed manufacturers. However, these researchers ignore products'network externality which is the positive effect described in economics and business, i.e., an additional user of goods or service adds the value of that product to others. Products such as computer software, television, and phone have network externality.
    Motivated by these observations,it is explored that whether retailers have an incentive to share their demand information with manufacturers in the dual-channel supply chain considering the network externality or not. A Stackelberg game is established with the manufacturer as the leader and the retailer as the follower. The optimal expect profits of the retailer and the manufacturer is derived by backward induction. It is found that the retailer's private demand information is always beneficial to the manufacturer considering the network externality or not. As expected, the retailer still has no incentive to share her demand information with the manufacturer without considering the network externality. This is in line with traditional wisdoms. To our surprise, the retailer may share her demand information with the manufacturer considering the network externality for free. Specifically, (i) when the network externality is enough large, the retailer shares her demand information with the manufacturer; (ii) otherwise, the retailer still never share her demand information.
    In addition, the supply chain and the manufacturer always benefit from the demand informationreceived from the retailer under network externality. So the Nash information compensation mechanism is designed and the condition where the manufacturer pays the retailer information fee is identified in order to incentive the retailer to share her demand information with manufacturer under network externality.It is found that only if the network externality is large, the manufacturer can receive the demand information from the retailer through paying appropriate fee to the retailer.
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    Outsourcing Strategies and Coordination in A Multi-Tier Supply Chain
    WANG Xu-jin, MA Cheng
    2019, 27 (8):  151-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.015
    Abstract ( 481 )   PDF (2339KB) ( 191 )   Save
    The outsourcing strategy issue is investigated in a multi-tier supply chain comprising of two original equipment manufacturers,a OEM contract manufacturer and a supplier. Based on Stackelberg game and Nash game,when the former original equipment manufacturer's outsourcing strategy is given,the latter one's optimal outsourcing strategy is presented through comparing to its profit functions under different outsourcing modes. It is identified that the latter one should adopt the same outsourcing strategy as the former one. Two-part pricing contract is designed for supply chain coordination so as to improve the whole supply chain competitiveness.
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    Study on the Retailer Ordering Strategy in the Perspective of Supply Chain Financing Structure
    YAN Ru-zhen, LI Ran, GAO Wei, WU Xu
    2019, 27 (8):  162-171.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.016
    Abstract ( 394 )   PDF (1145KB) ( 186 )   Save
    The financing structure is the composition and proportional relationship of accommodating various capital economic entities. A reasonable financing structure is beneficial to optimize the resource allocation, improve the property right structure, and increase revenue. In the current inventory management model among companies, numerous papers study the effects of delay payment on the reduction in inventory cost, the improvement of inventory strategies and the inventory coordination, which ignore the internal relation between the financing structure and retailer's ordering strategies. In this paper, a simple two-echelon supply chain is studied, making up of one supplier-and-one retailer, and the delay payment, capital constrained and the financing structure factors are integrated into the traditional news-vendor model. After that, an optimal ordering model is established for retailers in the face of random demand, and the optimization theory and method are used to obtain the optimal order quantity and optimal profit of the retailer. Further, the impact of price-cost ratio, purchase cost, repurchase price, inventory cost, shortage cost, ordering cycle, financing interest rate and investment interest rate are theoretically analyzed on the optimal order quantity. Finally, the model is deeply analyzed with the numerical example, and it is found that the numerical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis.
    The research results show that the factors such as inventory cost, purchase price, and price-cost ratio are negatively correlated with the optimal order quantity of the retailer,and there is a positive correlation between factors such as repurchase price, shortage cost and the retailer's optimal order quantity; When the selling price is fixed, the repurchase price has the greatest influence on the order quantity. When the ratio of debt financing is constant, the proportion of the price cost will have greater influence. Debt financing ratio, sales price and order cycle are closely related to the market demand distribution function. In this numerical example, the optimal order quantity of the retailer decreases as the proportion of debt financing increases, the optimal order quantity increases with the increase of the selling price, the optimal order quantity decreases with the increase of the order period. The relevant research conclusions can enable retailers to determine the optimal order quantity more effectively when faced with random market demand, and achieve the goal of reducing the total cost and increasing corporate profits.
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    An Intertemporal Pricing Optimization Model of the Airline Ticket based on Revenue Management
    XIONG Hao, YAN Hui-li
    2019, 27 (8):  172-180.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.017
    Abstract ( 356 )   PDF (985KB) ( 111 )   Save
    Multiple booking interval difference discount gradually became an important branch of revenue management of airline ticket. In this paper, a new revenue management model are proposed and a dynamic iterative method to solve it. Firstly, the new revenue management model considering the price sensitivity and the demand transform among the booking interval. It is assumed that potential demand emerging in each specific booking interval can be predicted by big data method. Then the realistic demand can be formed as a function of the potential demand and price sensitivity and price discount. And the price sensitive is affected by the potential demand emerged in the interval and the demand transformed to it from the last interval. Secondly, a two-partition dynamic iterative method is presented to solve the model. In each iteration of the solving method, except the earliest one of the left booking intervals, all the others are treated as a temporary whole interval. Then a two-interval model is solved to determinate the price discount of the earliest booking interval. And then, drop that booking internal to the solved set and start another iteration until the last two intervals. Finally, two experimental examples are constructed. From the empirical results, this new pricing model conforms to the aviation ticket pricing practices. And some useful results are also proposed:(1) there is no monotonic linear relationship between the fare and the advance purchase time. (2) When the booking interval is closer to the flying date the optimal discount should be decreased. However, when the booking interval tend to reach the flying date the price discount should be increased again. (3) Price sensitivity is positively related to the price discount. (4) The transformation rate has a negative relationship with the discount. (5) The demand transformation can change the price sensitivity of the booking interval, which lead to impact the price discount. So, some beneficial reference is provided for airlines and passengers.
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    Evolutionary Game of Quality and Safety Investment of Agricultural Products under Punishment Mechanism
    YANG Song, ZHUANG Jin-cai, WANG Ai-feng
    2019, 27 (8):  181-190.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.018
    Abstract ( 509 )   PDF (1222KB) ( 270 )   Save
    In recent years, agricultural products accidents of quality and safety occur frequently, which has caused great harm to people's health. Since the quality and safety of agricultural products depend on all members of the agricultural supply chain, for example, suppliers, producers, sales and so on. Quality and safety problem in any link may lead to the unqualified quality of agricultural products.Improving agriculture products' quality and safety requires collective action and the design the of governance structures which overcome the information and coordination problem within the supply chain. In China, the quality and safety of agricultural products are mainly ensured and controlled by suppliers and producers. Because investment of quality and safety for agricultural product has a positive external effect, participants have an incentive to hitchhike. Then, how should the government encourage participants to increase investmentof quality and safety?
    An evolutionary game model is built and a replicator equation is used to describe the selection and evolution path of suppliers and producers, according to payoff matrices of different behavior strategies of suppliers and producers. Furthermore, the stable equilibrium point is calculated and the evolutionarily stable strategy of suppliers and producers behavior is obtained from the Jacobin matrix. What's more, the influence of parameters of the system is analyzed. Finally, a simulation is used to compare the results under different punishment level, and some conclusions and recommendations are provided.
    The results show that the investment strategy of suppliers and producers is related to the ratio of cost-benefit of quality and safety input. Some evolutionarily stable equilibrium can be found when the cost-benefit ratios change. Suppliers or producers will be reluctant to increase investment of quality and safety for the agricultural product if either of them has "free rider" behavior. Only when the government's punishmentreaches a certain threshold can the suppliers and the producers increase investment for quality and safety.The results have some inspiration for the policies-making of government institution and the agricultural firm investment strategy of quality and safety.
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    Difference of Energy Efficiency in China Based on Non-Expected Output
    CHEN Xing-xing
    2019, 27 (8):  191-198.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.019
    Abstract ( 367 )   PDF (1051KB) ( 89 )   Save
    In the past 10 years, China's economy has developed rapidly. The rapid development of industry and real economy has prompted China's energy consumption to rise rapidly. While promoting energy consumption, extensive development mode makes hidden danger of economic growth and social development. The energy issue is not only a Chinese problem, but also a global issue which is closely watched by all the other countries in the world. Under the new normal, increasing the efficiency of energy consumption is the inevitable trend of economic development. The random disturbance and the external environment are an unavoidable to study the energy efficiency.Traditional DEA model can't eliminate the influence of non-expected outputon efficiency. In this paper, through the construction of four stage Bootstrap-DEA-Malmquist model, the provincial panel data in 1990~2014 is used to adjust energy input index by input slack, eliminate disturbance of external environment and random factors on energy efficiency and total energy productivity, and the Bootstrap random sampling method is used to further reduce the impact caused due to sample differences. From static and dynamic perspective, China's energy efficiency and total factor productivity in 1990~2014 are measured.It is found that the external environment and random disturbance estimation have significant impacts on energy efficiency. By eliminating the influence of external environment, technical efficiency change and the change of total factor productivity decrease in varying degrees. In addition, the energy efficiency drops when the environmental factors are considered. However, the energy efficiency value increases again after using bootstrap method to eliminate the influence of random factors. The main contribution of this paper is to separate environmental factors and stochastic factors from the calculation of energy efficiency and total energy productivity, and obtain more accurate values of energy efficiency and total energy factor productivity. In addition, the input-output data of energy consumption from 1990 to 2013 are systematically combed, especially for pollutant emission indicators, such as sulfur dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxides emissions, smoke and dust emissions. Besides, there were a lot of indicators data missing before 2001, and it needs to be integrated. A large number of calendar statistical yearbooks are referenced to complete the missing data, and the panel data collected in this paper is more comprehensive and complete than the previous references.
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    Study on Basin Ecological Compensation Mechanism based on Differential Game Theory
    XU Song-he, HAN Chuan-feng
    2019, 27 (8):  199-207.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.020
    Abstract ( 439 )   PDF (1015KB) ( 167 )   Save
    The market failure of river basin environmental management is the root cause of externality. The government-led ecological compensation mechanism can internalize the external effects of river basin environmental governance and is an effective means to solve the watershed environmental issues.
    The cross-border mobility of the basin's environment makes the environmental quality in the upper reaches of the basin directly affect the downstream areas.When the upstream region excessively uses environmental resources in pursuit of greater economic interests and transfers the cost of pollution control and environmental protection in the river basin to the downstream, it will cause dissatisfaction in the downstream regions.Conversely, in the absence of appropriate compensation, the protection of the environment in the upper reaches of the region may lose the opportunity to develop and use the environment, which will lead to weakening the will of the upper reaches of the environmental protection.As an economic incentive method, the ecological compensation mechanism internalizes the external effects of ecological protection in the river basin.The ecological compensation mechanism coordinates the upstream and downstream economic interests of the river basin in a way that the beneficiaries pay a certain fee to the disadvantaged.
    Because of the conflicts of interest between economic development and environmental protection, the ecological compensation in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment has a typical game feature.Based on the differential game model, the impact of ecological compensation mechanism on the government's pollution control efforts is studied. The effect of basin ecological compensation mechanism is analyzed by comparing the game equilibrium in three cases.
    The non-cooperative game is used to describe the game of upstream and downstream governments in the basin without ecological compensation, and stackelberg game is used to describe the game between upstream and downstream governments in ecological compensation.Whether it is a non-cooperative game or a master-slave game, basins and local governments are all aiming at maximizing their utility, instead of maximizing the overall utility of the basin.For the purpose of comparative analysis, the central government intervention was introduced to analyze the local government's decision to maximize the overall revenue of the basin.Then, the equilibrium solutions for the upper and lower government decisions under the three scenarios and the optimal returns for the upstream and downstream governments under the equilibrium solution conditions are solved.
    The results show that the non-cooperation mode of the upstream governments and downstream governments is not desirable when solving the problem of river basin environmental governance. Central intervention can effectively improve overall benefits of the basin. However, it will greatly stimulate upstream government pollution control efforts that downstream government provideenough large ecological compensation for upstream government.
    Based on this, it is argued that we should improve the compensation mechanism of fiscal transfer payment combined with vertical and horizontal, establish the incentive mechanism of ecological compensation between upstream governments and downstream governments in bounded watershed, and select appropriate river basin ecological compensation mode according to local conditions.
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    0-1 Formulation Model for Optimization of Pairing Parallel Activities under Resource-Constrained
    SU Zhi-xiong, WEI Han-ying, TU Yuan-fen
    2019, 27 (8):  208-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.021
    Abstract ( 424 )   PDF (1921KB) ( 99 )   Save
    Resource constraints are often broadly impacting, unavoidable impediments in project execution procedures. A number of recent, topical project management issues, such as the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP), have their roots in the resource constraint problem. It is NP-hard in the strong sense. Current research on the RCPSP mainly focuses on the global problem in which all activities are constrained by resource constraints during the whole project process. Considering practical projects requiring numerous types of resources, the "resource constrained" designation may be for limited types of resources or during partial project processes. The partial "resource-constrained" designation may constrain activities in a part of the project such that only a portion of activities need arrangement under resource restriction.The above representation denotes the partial RCPSP.In this paper, a typical sub-problem of the partial RCPSP is studied.
    The problem statement is the following:In an engineering project, if n unit resources are assigned to complete 2n activities, and each unit resource can complete two activities, it must be determined how to arrange these activities to minimize the lengthening of the project duration. The problem (referred to as the pairing of parallel activities) is popular in practice but very difficult to solve because the number of schemes for it reaches (2n)!/n!.
    Characteristics of the deterministic RCPSP are analyzed, and the problem could be represented in another way. First "resource-unconstrained" is assumed and an initial schedule for the project is proposed such as scheduling each activity to start at its earliest start time. Then "resource-constrained" is considered and activities are adjusted to minimum impact on project duration under the resource constraints. In this representation, the scheduling is to sequence initial parallel activities to sequential ones in order to satisfy the resource constraints. The fewer activity overlaps is essential to lower consumption of resources at certain times.Therefore, the RCPSP is particular to sequencing parallel activities, and the fundamental issues include scheduling several parallel activities to one or more activity chains and activity pairs.From the perspective of sequencing, the partial RCPSP aims to adjust only partial parallel activities to sequential ones under the partial "resource-constrained", that is, partial sequencing parallel activities.
    A project under finish-to-start-type precedence relations can be represented as a CPM network. The activity time parameters are studied and the problem itself is examined from the angle of the path. The relations between the two are discovered. This discovery is the key to solve the problem. Consequently, the impact of sequencing parallel activities on project duration is indicated only requiring two types of time parameters, thereby the difficulty of the combinatorial optimization problem is considerably reduced.Finally, a 0-1 formulation modelfor the problem is presented, which has competitiveness compared to the usual formulation models.Computational experiments test that 0.2605 (10.66) seconds average is required for disposing 100 (500) parallel activities.
    The relations between activity time parameters and impact on project duration of sequencing parallel activities may help solve other similar types of sequence problems. For example, for a general problem of sequencing n parallel activities as m (m < n) sequential activity chains with a minimal impact on project duration, which is important for productive practice but very difficult to effectively solve,the above relations can be extended for application to these problems, and they may enlighten ideas and theoretical tools to improve existing approaches and design new ones.
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