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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (8): 66-74.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.08.007

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Credit Risk Modeling and Analysis for Crowdfunding Market of Electric Vehicle Charging Pile based on Complex Network

ZHANG Qi1,2, LI Yan1,2, WANG Ge1,2, ZHU Li-jing1,2, HU Ying1,2, WANG Le1,2   

  1. 1. Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China
  • Received:2017-10-25 Revised:2018-03-19 Online:2019-08-20 Published:2019-08-27

Abstract: With plenty of economic and environmental advantages, there is an urgent need to promote the development of Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, the insufficiency of charging facilities has become a major bottleneck for EV uptake. For its high externality and long payback period, it is difficult to raise funds by traditional financing tools. As a novel financing mechanism, internet-based crowdfunding has attracted increasing attentions.However, lacking of targeted legislation or supervision aggravate information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, which further drives high the default risk and undermines the investors' confidence. To figure out the impacts of information asymmetry in crowdfunding market, a multi-agent simulation under social network scale is conducted, and the data of Chinese charging pile market is applied in the presented study. Both herd effect and scale effect in crowdfunding are also analyzed in sensitivity analysis.The results indicate:(1) Investors are more sensitive to the negative attitudes of surrounding people;(2)The crowdfunding project is more attractive while it exhibits strong scale effect; (3)Dividend ratio is positively related to project join ratio, while it exhibits non-monotonic influence on default ratio and initiator's profit; (4)The penalty is efficient to cut down the high default ratio according to the results of the presented model.

Key words: Electric Vehicle (EV), charging pile, crowdfunding, complex network, herd effect, penalty

CLC Number: