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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 September 2019, Volume 27 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Loan Portfolio Selection Model Based on Power Spectral Risk Measure and Monte Carlo Simulation
    CHI Guo-tai, ZHANG Ya-jing, DING Shi-jie
    2019, 27 (9):  1-14.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.001
    Abstract ( 511 )   PDF (1245KB) ( 325 )   Save
    Extreme risk is very important for bank asset allocation. Especially after the subprime mortgage crisis, the tail risk has drawn great attention from financial institutions. The traditional Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and Value at Risk (VaR) cann't measure the tail extreme risk effectively. Therefore, Power Spectral Risk Measure and Monte Carlo simulation are combined to build a portfolio selection model, while controlling tail extreme risk and credit risk. First, through the idea that loss Xi is larger while the risk weight φi is larger, the extreme risk is controlled by minimizing the Power Spectral Risk of loan portfolio. This method makes up the shortcoming of CVaR that ignoring the risky losses should be greater weight deficiencies and the shortcoming of VaR that only provides a maximum confidence level of asset loss without reflecting the potential loss more than the confidence level. Second, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented for estimating portfolio credit risk which caused by the credit rating migration. Then, through the idea that the greater the loss of loan portfolio after the credit rating migration, the greater the risk aversion weight is, establish the objective by minimizing the PSR of loan portfolio. The portfolio selection model is constructed by combining the objective of PSR and the constraints that the return of portfolio is greater than the target revenue. The proposed model makes up for the lack of control of credit risk and tail risk in the existing researches. The empirical evidence is based on the historical data of 12 loans. The empirical results show that the proposed model can achieve higher yield risk ratio than CVaR and VaR model, that is, the proposed model can achieve higher profit under the unit power spectral risk. This paper expands the idea of combining loan extreme risk and credit risk for loan allocation
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    A Class of Bi-level Parameter Estimation Models for Sparse Portfolios and Its Application
    XU Feng-min, JING Kui, LIANG Xun
    2019, 27 (9):  15-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.002
    Abstract ( 471 )   PDF (1530KB) ( 274 )   Save
    The portfolio selection problem with cardinality constraint is a hot issue in recent years. Much attention is paid to solve this problem because managing a portfolio with many assets often leads to high transaction costs and is a rather time-and energy-consuming experience in practice. However, the parameter uncertainty directly affects the effect of the model and makes it difficult to achive best performance of the portfolio. The parameters of the portfolio selection problem with cardinality constraint include not only the expected rate of return which was considered to be very important in previous studies, but also the sparsity controlling the size of the portfolio. Especially, there hasn't been much special research on estimation of portfolio's sparsity. In order to select optimal parameters better for investment decision, a sparse bi-level parameter estimation model is constructed for portfolio with cardinality constraint. The outer layer of the model is designed to maximize the utility of the portfolio which is measured by Sharpe ratio, while the inner layer of the model is designed to minimize the risk of a portfolio under a given expected return.The outer layer function is non-convex and non-smooth, so it is difficult to solve by the traditional gradient method. What's more, A framework of derivative-free optimization algorithm is built based on the model and we use ADMM to solve the sub problems. In particular, ADMM can get the closed-form solution of the sub-problem, which shows that the algorithm is effective.In this paper, numerical experiments are conducted by real-life data from OR-library and some Chinese stock markets(SSE 50、CSI 100)to estimate the expected rate of return and sparsity. The estimated sparsity is much smaller than the number of risky assets contained in each index,which will greatly ease the difficulty of portfolio management and decrease the transaction cost. The effectiveness of the model and algorithm is illustrated through comparison with the classical MV model with bounded constraints and the equal weight strategy(naive strategy).Specifically,our method improves the Sharpe ratio by at least 18.99% compared with 1/N strategy and by at least 39.03% compared with MV model which has upper and lower bounds out of sample. Finally, the proposed sparse bi-level parameter estimation model is extended to a general form, which can help estimate more accurate upper and lower bounds as well as other parameters. This is the direction of our future research.
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    Enhanced Indexation Investment Strategies Based on UPM-LPM Ratio
    HUANG Jin-bo, WU Li-li, YOU Yi-ling
    2019, 27 (9):  26-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.003
    Abstract ( 436 )   PDF (1149KB) ( 288 )   Save
    The index-linked trades have become especially prevalent in the asset management industry in the last decades, as investors tend to require benchmarking as a mechanism to evaluate portfolio performance.Index tracking models and Enhanced indexation models are two particularly popular index trading models. Index tracking models aim to reproduce the performance of a stock market index, but without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index.Enhanced indexation models (EIM) are related to index tracking, in the sense that they also consider a specific indexas a reference. They however aim to outperform the index by generating excess return.The prior EIM are mostly concentrated on overcoming the computational difficulty raised by restricting the cardinality of the portfolios-not on answering the question if they do attain their stated purpose, i.e. obtain returnin excess of the index. In this paper, the enhanced indexation investment strategies that adopt subset of the constituent stocks to construct portfolios to track the benchmark index trend are studied and excess returns relative to index is obtained. As a risk measure, an attractive propertiesof Lower Partial Moment (LPM) is that most other downside risk measures can be specified as special cases of LPM. However, the LPMs has not been used to study the index-linked trade models.Therefore the concept of LPM is extended to suit to the enhanced indexation model by using the index return as target return. In addition, the definition of the Upper Partial Moment (UPM) is given, and then enhanced indexation models are constructed based on the UPM-LPM ratio.In order to solve the complex nonlinear problem and tackle ‘dimensional curse’ induced by large scale portfolio selection, kernel estimation method is used to obtain tracking portfolios' density function directly without considering the high dimensional joint distribution of assets' returns, which can overcome the ‘dimensional curse’ problem. Furthermore, the LPM and UPM kernel estimators, which are smooth functions of the positions and have arbitrary order derivatives, can significantly reduce the complexity of solving these models. Finally, we adopt five common indicesand their constituent stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen securities markets to test our models' performance. The period from 4 January 2005 to 31 December 2016 is concentrated on, spanning the global and post-global financial crisis. The empirical results show that our models outperform the indices and the tracking portfolios selected by the model with considering target index return is very robust. Our approach has potential applications to better manage pension funds, public funds, private equity funds and fund of funds.
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    Research on the Pricing of Treasury Bond Futures Based on Lattice Field Theory and Dynamic Programming
    FENG Ling, LEI Li-mei
    2019, 27 (9):  36-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.004
    Abstract ( 399 )   PDF (2533KB) ( 217 )   Save
    The main purpose of this paper is to establish a more accurate pricing model for treasury bond futures. The difficulty in pricing treasury bond futures is how to build a more realistic forward rate model and price a series of embedded options based on the futures transaction delivery rules. However,the traditional Treasury bond futures prices are usually obtained by pricing the forward price and the quality option separately with different models, resulting to the model-error problem caused by the inconsistency of the pricing model.
    In this paper, a more realistic field theory model of treasury forward rate is constructed by using the QFT (Quantum Field Theory) method in financial physics that can effectively incorporate the incomplete correlation between calendar time and expiration time on treasury bond forward rates. Based on the optimal field theory model of forward interest rate constructed, a theoretical lattice field model of the forward interest rate is obtained by discretizing the two-dimensional quantum field A(t,T). Then the dynamic programming method is utilized to model the transaction and trade rules to construct the pricing model of treasury bond futures and its embedded options within a unified framework.For example, if the rules of "a basket of deliverable bonds" was modified as "only the standard notes can be delivered", the optimal settlement price of Treasury bond futures without quality options can be obtained; By changing the terms of "the delivery date choices within the last delivery month" to "only the final delivery date be delivered", the optimal settlement price of the Treasury future without timing options can be found;Finally, the value of the quality option and timing option are got by subtractingthe optimal settlement price calculated by the original rule from the above two prices.
    In the empirical study, based on the daily data of treasury forward rates with 115 maturities, from June 1, 2012 to May 31,2016, the QFT model constructed provides a goodness of fit of 95.16% to the actual treasury forward rate, which is better than the case that traditional mainstream two-factor HJM model's fitting accuracy of 66.85%. In addition,the pricing effect of the Treasury bond futures pricing model based on lattice field theory and dynamic programming are confirmed to be far superior to the mainstream two-factor HJM model commonly used in financial industry,employing the data with the 5-year treasury futures and 10-year treasury futures in 2017; The results show that Treasury bond futures pricing model constructed in this paper fits well with the settlement price of the real market; Its average pricing errors are all within 3%, and the values of quality option are about 2% to 6% of its corresponding treasury bond futures par value; The timing option value of all contracts is significantly less than the value of quality option and mostly hovers around 0, but both show a rapid upward trend before the close of the delivery date.
    The research work done in this paper not only provides the pricing foundation and theoretical support for new Treasury futures products development and design, but also has some reference value for the interest-rate risk management.
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    The Impact of Different New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policies on Market Stability
    ZHAO Hua, ZHENG Ji-chuan
    2019, 27 (9):  47-55.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.005
    Abstract ( 555 )   PDF (1682KB) ( 483 )   Save
    At present, to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure and the demand of forming new economic growth point, governments of most countries are urged to launch various optimized subsidy policies to support the development of new energy automobile industry. In the application process of subsidy policies for new energy automobile industry, there are both cases of research and development (R&D) subsidies or market subsidies acting alone, also cases where there are mixed subsidies at the same time. So, what impact does R&D subsidies have on R&D investment of new energy auto companies, and what is the effect on market stability? Can market subsidies stimulate the R&D investment of new energy auto companies and maintain market stability? What effect will the mixed subsidies of R&D and market have on the new energy automobile industry? What are the characteristics of each of the R&D subsidy market subsidies, and how should the subsidy method be selected? These issues are worthy of discussion. In view of the above, a dynamic game model based on the branch theory of dynamic system is constructed, and the effects of three new energy vehicle subsidies on market stability are discussed, including:1) research and development (R&D) subsidies; 2) market subsidies; 3) mixed subsidies. The results show that:firstly, new energy vehicle R&D subsidies can stimulate R&D investment, but the increase of subsidies will reduce market stability; Secondly, the incentive effect of new energy vehicle market subsidy on R&D investment is weaker than that of R&D subsidy; Finally, under the mixed subsidies of new energy vehicles, the incentive effect of R&D subsidies on the R&D investment of enterprises is better than that of market subsidies, the incentive effect on the profits of enterprises is worse than that of market subsidies, and the improvement of market stability of new energy vehicles is better than that of market subsidies. Based on this, it is suggested that the Backward slope of market subsidy should be reduced, and in the future we should carry out "R&D investment interval gradient subsidy" corresponding with the R&D investment of NEV enterprises, in order to reduce the adjustment speed of R&D investment, increase the market stability and promote the development of new energy automobile industry. The research conclusions of this paper provide a theoretical basis for reference based on enterprise R&D investment, industrial development, market stability, and improvement of new energy vehicle subsidies for regional characteristics and industrial development stages.In addition, the R&D investment is adjusted dynamically according to the profit signal, and the dynamic system branch and the chaotic bifurcation theory are applied to explain the relevant policy implications. If you further relax or change the relevant assumptions, you may get some new conclusions.
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    Pricing and Service Decision of Omni-channel BOPS: Considering Online Return and Channel Cost
    LIU Jin-rong, XU Qi, CHEN Qi
    2019, 27 (9):  56-67.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.006
    Abstract ( 540 )   PDF (1252KB) ( 385 )   Save
    In the global consumer economy, omni-channel retailers and buying experiences are now the norm. With the rise of Omni-channel retailing of online and offline integration, more and more brand retailers are beginning to offer customers the shopping option of BOPS (Buy Online and Pickup in Store). Online channels often result in higher return rates due to lack of product experience. And retailers have a certain cost by providing experience services to customers who arrive at stores. So, in this paper,whether retailers should open BOPS channel, how does BOPS affect the demand and profit, and what's the optimalpricing and experience service decision are researched.With consideration of the online return and channel cost, the profit models for brand retailers before and after opening the BOPS channel are built based on the consumer utility functions under online channel, store channel and BOPS channel, the impacts of BOPS on the demand allocation and profitability of brand retailers are analyzed, and then Newton's method is applied to solve and study the optimal pricing and service decision. The results show that, (1) When a specific relationship is satisfied between the online return rate and the BOPS channel's inconvenience, the opening of BOPS channel can increase the total demand of brand retailers and decrease the demands in online channel and store channel; (2) When the online return rate reaches a certain threshold or the BOPS channel is very convenient, the opening of BOPS channel can increase the total profit of brand retailers; (3) When the online return rate is very low and the shopping cost of online channel is high, the opening of BOPS channel can make brand retailers profit more; (4) Adding BOPS stores with experience service at convenient locations, regardless of the shopping cost of online channel and the online return rate, or even properly increasing the price can make brand retailers profitable. This study can provide some management insights for brand retailers to implement BOPS Omni-channel strategy.
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    Research on Supply Chain Contract Coordination of Different Replenishment Strategies under Uncertain Environment
    LIU Jia-guo, WANG Jun-jin, ZHOU Jin-xia, LIU Fan
    2019, 27 (9):  68-79.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.007
    Abstract ( 494 )   PDF (1355KB) ( 429 )   Save
    In view of the salvage value or replenishment problem caused by the output and demand uncertainty, considering a bilateral random supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and retailer, the two sides take the form of pre-order to construct two different spot-market replenishment strategy models, and study the optimal decision-making behaviors of input quantity of raw materials and order quantity of finished products, and supply chain coordination problem under random environment. The research shows that when the retailer replenishes the products by itself, the revenue sharing contract cannot cope with the risk of output uncertainty, and the manufacturer will reduce the input to avoid the overproduction, which will lead to the contract failure. However, the revenue sharing contract attached with the two-way mechanism of penalty for shortage and compensation for surplus can work effectively. When the manufacturer replenishes the products, the spot market reduces the output uncertainty risk and improves the ratio of output on input of the chain system, and can make the original revenue sharing contract work again. After the coordination of effective contracts, the profits of all parties are affine functions of the optimal profits of the system, and the distribution coefficient is controlled by the revenue sharing proportion after negotiation. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation demonstrate the effectiveness of contract coordination. It is also found from the numerical analysis that the designed revenue-sharing and risk-sharing contract can better reduce the impact of uncertainty on revenues than the single contract.
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    Research on Dual-channel Promotion Cooperation and Differential Game under Buyer's Countervailing Power
    Lin Jing, Wang Jian, Zheng Min
    2019, 27 (9):  80-92.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.008
    Abstract ( 440 )   PDF (1773KB) ( 252 )   Save
    In the dual-channel supply chain, it is meaningful to develop reasonable promotion strategies to improve the profit of the upstream and downstream enterprises and reduce channel conflicts. Basing on the assumption that the channel demand is affected by the enterprises' dynamic promotion behavior, the product goodwill and consumers' heterogeneous channel preference, the dual-channel promotion problem between the manufacturer online and the retailer offline is studied, constructed the vertical joint promotion differential game models which were based on product goodwill and consumers' willingness to pay are constructed, explored the incentive effect of four models of non-cooperative, centralized, two-stage compensation contract and two-stage cost sharing contract on the promotion decision of channel members is explored, the influence mechanisms of buyer's countervailing force on channel members' promotional efforts and cooperative contracts is discussed, and the influences of consumers' channel preference and channel substitution parameter on enterprises' promotion decisions are analyzed.
    The following conclusions are drawn from the study:①Under the influence of buyer's counterbalance force, the proportion of promotion cost sharing of upstream enterprises in the two-stage compensation contract has a double impact on the profit of upstream and downstream enterprises, this contract can motivate the retailers to reach the optimal promotion effort level which is achieved under the centralized decision-making, and also realize the Pareto improvement of the profit of the supply chain, but the incentive for manufacturers to promote are inadequate; ②The two-stage cost-sharing contract can motivate the enterprises of the upstream and downstream to promote at the same time, and ensure that the optimal promotion effort level equals to the situation under centralized decision-making, and no matter how the buyer's counterbalance forces change, it won't cause the decision deviation of the upstream and downstream enterprises, all the enterprises can realize the profit Pareto improvement after the transfer payment, and the supply chain can achieve perfect coordination; ③The influence of consumers' channel preference on the promotion efforts of upstream and downstream enterprises is determined by the marginal profit which is generated by channel preference.
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    A Study on Theory and Practice of Two-dimensional Matrix Based Individual Learning from Successful and Failed Experience
    CHEN Guo-quan, ZHOU Qi-wei
    2019, 27 (9):  93-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.009
    Abstract ( 369 )   PDF (3507KB) ( 273 )   Save
    [Purpose] Learning fuels individuals to fulfill sustainable development. Past experiences are important learning sources. Learning from different types of past experiences will have different impacts, and require different conditions. Starting from social problems and real phenomena, from a deep and fine-grained perspective, a learning matrix by both the dimension of "internal-external" and the dimension of "success-failure" is built, which results in four categories of individual learning from past experience, i.e., learning from internal successful experience (LISE), learning from internal failed experience (LIFE), learning from external successful experience (LESE) and learning from external failed experience (LEFE), with which we hope to help us analyze the learning effectiveness and related issues in systematical and comprehensive manners.[Approach] Based on huge quantity of observations of real phenomena and literature review, the aim of this work is to make two major theoretical contributions to the field of organizational learning.[Findings] On the one hand, in views of goals and consequences, "suggested practices" and "avoidant practices" for each learning category are extracted, and a "traffic lights" metaphor is utilized to illustrate the bi-benchmarks of "suggestions" and "avoidances". On the other hand, in order to enhance learning effectiveness and avoid the pitfalls, based on a comprehensive theoretical research and practices review, both the internal and external conditions for each learning category are elaborated, and it is identified that not only knowledge and experiences are needed, known as the "cognitive prerequisites", but also there should be affectivity and willingness, known as the "motivational prerequisites".[Value] With these contributions, this paper hopes to increase the effectiveness of learning from internal/external successful/failed experience, and to shed light upon the fine-grained research of organizational learning.
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    How Doctors' Informative-emotional Interaction Modes Impact the Satisfaction of Mobile Consultation Service: An Analysis Based on the Motivation-hygiene Theory
    YAN Meng-ling, ZHANG Jia-yuan
    2019, 27 (9):  108-118.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.010
    Abstract ( 441 )   PDF (1344KB) ( 269 )   Save
    Mobile consultation service allows patients to acquire timely health guidance from doctors via mobile devices. While its rapid growth in the past owes to its advantages over traditional face-to-face consultation in convenience, high efficiency, and low cost, its future development dependents on the continuous improvement of patients' satisfaction.
    Extant research on patients' satisfaction towards mobile consultation service has been focused on antecedents such as technology adoption and patients' trust, few research had paid attention to the interaction modes between patients and doctors, which is considered as a key factor for patients' satisfaction towards mobile consultation service.In fact, lacking of facial and body language, asynchronous communication, and more knowledgeable patients have posed new challenges to the interaction modes between patients and doctors in the mobile context. Besides, most literature explained the factors that lead to patients' satisfaction, but ignored the reasons that caused patients' dissatisfaction.
    In order to provide a more complete understanding on the antecedences of patients' satisfaction and dissatisfaction, this work draws on the motivation-hygiene theory, and aims to answer the following two research questions:(1) What are the characteristics of the informative and emotional interaction modes of doctors in the mobile context? (2) How do these interactive modes of doctors affect patient satisfaction and dissatisfaction respectively?
    Data were collected from a leading Chinese mobile medical service application, and a mixed method research was designed characterized by a qualitative study followed by a quantitative study. First, 300 out of 750 real communication records between doctors and patients were screened based on a set of predefined rules. Among them, records that were labelled by patients as "satisfied", "fair", and "dissatisfied" are evenly distributed. Then, a qualitative study based on thematic analysis coding rules was conducted to identify the sub-categories of doctors' informative and emotional interaction modes.Four categories (professional diagnosis, professional description, comfort to cure and relationship maintenance) were coded to describe doctors' interaction behaviors with 15 sub-categories in the good interaction model and 12 in the poor interaction model. Third, a quantitative study was employed to hypothesize and validate the relationships among different interaction modes and patients' satisfaction.
    The findings suggest that good informative interaction mode does not leads to patient satisfaction while poor informative interaction mode lead to patient dissatisfaction, which means doctors' informative interaction mode acts as a hygiene factor to the quality of mobile consultation service. On the contrast, good emotional interaction mode leads to patient satisfaction while poor emotional interaction mode does not lead to patient dissatisfaction. Therefore, the doctor's emotional interaction mode acts as a motivation factor for patients' satisfaction.
    Our work contributes to the mobile healthcare literature by drawing attention to the different antecedents of patients' satisfaction and dissatisfaction, by emphasizing the importance of the doctor-patient interaction processes in the mobile context, and by designing a mixed method based on real communication records between patients and doctors. This work offers practical guidance to improve doctors' communication behavior as well as the design of mobile healthcare applications.
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    Foreign Equity, Board Characteristics and the Performance of Chinese Commercial Banks——the Empirical Analysis Based on 121 Chinese Commercial Banks
    LIU Jia-song, ZHANG Bo, LUO Qi
    2019, 27 (9):  119-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.011
    Abstract ( 389 )   PDF (979KB) ( 219 )   Save
    The board of directors is the core of corporate governance. Commercial banks can improve governance system and business performance by introducing foreign capital and encouraging foreign shareholders to appoint directors. The data of 121 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2016 is taken as samples from the perspective of foreign shareholders' participation in board governance for the first time. In this paper, the grouping comparison method is used based on the fixed effect model.The empirical part adopts the fixed effect model,and uses ROA and ROE as two indicators to measure the performance of commercial banks and compare the differences of the effects.
    The results show that:(1)there is a significant positive correlation between the board size,the proportion of non-executive directors, the frequency of board meetings and the number of professional committees and the performance of commercial banks;(2)with the increase of the proportion of foreign directors in the board of directors,the positive correlation between the size of the board of directors, the frequency of board meetings,the number of professional committees and business performance has been significantly weakened. However,the positive correlation between the proportion of non-executive directors and business performance was significantly enhanced.
    Accordingly,this paper recommends:(1)foreign directors should be encouraged to participate in board governance,and the size of the board of directors should be appropriately expanded;appropriate non-executive directors should be provided to foreign shareholders; the frequency of board meetings should be moderately increased;and the system of professional committees should be actively improved;(2)to control the unreasonable increase in the proportion of foreign directors in the board of directors and ensure the substantial independence between foreign directors and independent directors.
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    Studying on Evolution Game Between Online and Offline Sales Based on Fair Concern
    XIA Xi-qiang, CAO Yu, HU Han-li
    2019, 27 (9):  130-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.012
    Abstract ( 337 )   PDF (728KB) ( 276 )   Save
    With the rapid development of the Internet, online sales not only become an important part of the sales market, but also influence the traditional sales model (offline sales) changes. However, the online and offline sales will exist in the market for a long time, because the online and offline have irreplaceable advantages. And more, fairness concerns effect the decision-making behavior of participants in the market competition. Thus, the game model between online and offline sales is constructed in order to analyze the impact of fair concern on decision behavior and competitive strategy. Firstly, the decision and profits are comparably analyzed from the four conditions of fairness concerns based on the game model. Secondly, the evolutionary game model is constructed based on the four conditions of fairness concerns in order to analyze the influence of different equity concerns on the decision-making behavior of the participants in the sales channel. The main results are as follows:the other sales profit will be reduced when fairness concerns are adopted by online or offline; offline taking fairness concerns or unfair concern strategy is closely related to the online strategies, i.e. the offline takes unfair concerns when online takes fairness concerns of probability is greater than a certain threshold, on the contrary, adopt fairness concerns; the evolutionary equilibrium stability strategy is to adopt fair concern on both sides after a long period of evolutionary game between online and offline sales. The scientific decisions could be provided to online and offline sales through this study.
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    The Effect of Employee Motivation on Ambidextrous Sales Behavior: The Moderating Role of Chinese Tradition
    JIANG Lan
    2019, 27 (9):  138-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.013
    Abstract ( 355 )   PDF (1293KB) ( 273 )   Save
    The paradox between existing product sales and new product sales is often faced, the marketers are demanded to adopt different ways to handle the conflict between the two sales behaviors. In view of the theory of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, not only the sales behavior under the influence of different motives is explored, but also the moderating effect of Chinese tradition on the relationship between motivation and product sales is revealed. Under the Chinese conditions, the ambidextrous sales behavior scale with a good reliability (0.896) is studied. The research indicates that:(1)there is a compelling positive correlation between the intrinsic motivation and the ambidextrous sales behavior of the existing products and new products, and the extrinsic motivation has no significant positive relationship with the dual sales behavior of the existing products and new products;(2)Chinese tradition has a momentous impact on the ambidextrous sales behavior;(3)the cross multiplicative term of Chinese tradition and intrinsic motivation has no clear negative moderating effect on ambidextrous sales behavior.(4)the cross multiplicative term of Chinese tradition and extrinsic motivation has no obvious positive impact on the sales of existing products, and has no evident negative impact on the sales of new products.
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    The Impact of “Negativity Bias” on Perceived Usefulness of Platform Recognized Reviews
    REN Xiao-jing, LI Qi
    2019, 27 (9):  149-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.014
    Abstract ( 442 )   PDF (1270KB) ( 251 )   Save
    Review helpfulness, which refers to the extent to which an online review is perceived by consumers to facilitates a consumer's purchase decision making, has captured considerable attention both from scholars and practitioners. Prior studies examining the effect of review valence on review helpfulness have produced mixed results. Most of past studies have shown that people tend to weight negative reviews more than positive reviews under certain circumstances. However, the reviews in previous studies were mostly general reviews without the recognition of the review platform. Therefore, this study focuses on the platform-recognized reviews of experienced products.
    Based upon the attribution theory, the effects of "negativity bias" on the on perceived helpfulness of platform-recognized reviews are examined. Furthermore, the interaction effect between reviewer level and "negativity bias" on perceived helpfulness of platform-recognized reviews and the intrinsic causal relationship between them are examined. A number of undergraduates are invited to participate in our studies. The reviews we adopted come from the real online review environment such as Dazhongdianping APP as the experimental data.
    The conclusions are as follows:First, for the platform-recognized reviews, the perceived usefulness of negative reviews is higher than that of positive reviews, that is, the negative bias effect is still significant. Secondly, for the platform-recognized reviews, reviewer level will adjust the influence of "negativity bias" on perceived usefulness of reviews. The higher the reviewer level, the more helpful the positive review is. However, the difference is not significant for negative reviews. Thirdly, these effects will be mediated by review attribution. That is to say, positive reviews with high-level reviewer (vs. low-level reviewer) can be more likely to be attributed to a product itself rather than reviewers. Consequently, they are perceived to be more helpful. However, for negative reviews, there was no significant difference in the effect of reviewer level on the review attribution. So, no matter the level of the reviewer is high or low, there is no significant difference in perceived usefulness of the platform-recognized negative reviews.
    It is assumed this study can contribute to not only the research framework of online reviews and the influence factors of perceived helpfulness, but also expanding and enriching the range of application and interpretation signal theory and of attribution. According to the research conclusions, some targeted countermeasures and suggestions for the enterprise management are provided.
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    Value Co-creation in Service Derivative: Coordination between Consumers and Manufacturing Firm
    SUN Li-yuan, LUO Jian-qiang, YANG Hui
    2019, 27 (9):  160-168.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.015
    Abstract ( 335 )   PDF (992KB) ( 202 )   Save
    As servitization becomes a popular strategy, many product-manufacturing firms offer derivative services based on their core products to create more value for consumers and to earn higher profit, i.e. to realize value co-creation. Offering services can be costly, especially when a firm improves service level, while consumers are not likely to pay for the corresponding service costs. As a result, the firm will choose to offer services with low service level and set a high price, which is similar to the so-called "double-marginalization" in supply chain studies. In this paper the existence of double-marginalization when a product-manufacturing firm offers services is verified by building a model which is consist of a decentralized decision-making case and a centralized decision-making case. By comparing equilibrium prices, service levels and profits in the two cases, it is found that in centralized decision-making case the service level and the total profit are higher while the price and the firm's profit are lower. Our finding suggests that consumers and the firm will create more value as a whole in centralized decision-making case while the firm will not choose centralized decision-making mode, i.e. double-marginalization exists when the firm offers services. Then, a revenue sharing contract is used to coordinate profit allocation between consumers and the firm. The conclusions show that the contract can alleviate double marginalization between consumers and the firm. With the contract, the firm will initiatively improve service level and lower price, demand will increase and value co-creation can be realized. At last, numerical experiments are conducted to show how revenue-sharing rate may influence price, demand and profit.
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    Consumers' Variety Seeking and Firms' Coupon Pricing Strategy
    JIANG Chuan-hai, ZHOU Tian-yi, ZHU Bei
    2019, 27 (9):  169-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.016
    Abstract ( 1904 )   PDF (606KB) ( 460 )   Save
    It is easy to observe that consumers tend to be variety-seeking in a lot of markets, such as catering industry, tourist industry and fashion industry. In these industries, if an agent consumes the same product or service twice, he may be faced with utility loss. This kind of utility loss is called "staying cost". In addition, it can be also observed that many firms often use coupon pricing strategy. Coupon pricing strategy means that firms give its consumers a discount coupon, they will get discount price when they come to purchase next time. In this paper, this marketing strategy made by firms with consumers' variety-seeking as well as the effect of this behavior on the social welfare is mainly analyzed.
    A two period duopoly model is developed based on Hotelling framework. The case is considered that duopoly firms can offer coupons to its consumers in the first period and they will get a discount price if they come to purchase in the second period. But at the same time loyal consumers will suffer from a utility loss. And if they choose the other firm in the second period, they have to pay the original price.
    In the first part of this paper, a two stage model is developed to solve the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium. The equilibrium shows that:(1) under the coupon pricing scheme, firms can offer discount coupon to its consumers for second purchasing, and charge original price to new consumers. (2) The behavior of consumers' variety-seeking will weaken competition between firms in the first period.
    In the first part of this paper, welfare analysis is made for the equilibrium outcome. The comparative static analysis is made for consumer surplus, firms' profits and social welfare. And it is found that consumer surplus and social welfare will rise with increase of staying cost. But firm's profit will fall at the same time. Compared with other pricing schemes, such as uniform pricing, discrimination pricing and pre-commitment pricing, consumer surplus under coupon pricing is greater than other pricing schemes.
    In general, our model can make a good explanation for many economic facts and firms' strategic behaviors, and further make some significant suggestions for the firms' marketing strategy.
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    Optimization of Task-Route Matching Based on Muti-Hub and Spoke Collaborative Logistics Network
    XU Xiao-feng, SUN Yu-ping
    2019, 27 (9):  175-182.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.017
    Abstract ( 409 )   PDF (1601KB) ( 242 )   Save
    To advance scale merit of the logistics network, and balance the conflicts of interests between operators and customers, an optimization strategy of task-route matching is proposed on the basis of multi-hub and spoke collaborative logistics network.Firstly, under the condition of a given logistics network, considering resource departure time, capability limitation, dynamic cost discount coefficient and task delay penalty, a mathematical model oftask-route matching is established, which is from the point of logistics integration service provider and committed tominimize total cost as well as total time. Then,according to the characteristics of the problem, the genetic algorithm based on three-layers code is designed to solve the model. Meanwhile,the multi-point crossover and mutation mechanism are used to improve computing efficiency.Finally, research results show that centralized transportation could significantly reduce the execution cost of the task set,however, when the negative effect such as delivery delay and customer satisfaction decrease have exceeded the positive effect it brought about, the direct transport route should be appropriately introduced to improve the overall benefit.
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    Establishment and Application of the Evaluation System of Inclusive Green Growth Performance in China
    WU Wu-lin, ZHOU Xiao-liang
    2019, 27 (9):  183-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.018
    Abstract ( 488 )   PDF (3589KB) ( 280 )   Save
    Based on the summary of the classical literature and the views of the authoritative institutions, the evaluation system of inclusive green growth performance is established by index sea selection, combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, which includes four dimensions of economic development, social opportunity equity, green production and consumption, and ecosystem environmental protection from the theoretical connotation of inclusive green growth. The entropy method is also used to evaluate inclusive green growth performance and four dimensions in China from 2000 to 2015. The results show that the inclusive green growth performance in China is significantly higher, which completely coincides with the trend of the country's development. It can be divided into the initial stage, the stabilization and recovery stage, and the significant rising stage, which is attributed to the synergy of the four dimensions. The coordinated development of economic development and social opportunity equity has a significant contribution to the increase of inclusive green growth performance. In general, the increase of green production and consumption and ecosystem environmental protection has promoted the inclusive green growth performance.
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    Supply Optimization for Bicycle Sharing System Considering Service Level and Dynamic Transfer
    YAN Zhang-hua, LIU Lei
    2019, 27 (9):  195-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.019
    Abstract ( 490 )   PDF (1169KB) ( 483 )   Save
    After a frenzied expansion, the operation management in shared bicycle industry needs urgent improvements due to out bursting problems. This article aims at solving the over-deployment problem by constructing an optimization model to optimize the amount of bicycles supplies. Firstly, based on analyzing and describing how the shared bicycle system operates, the core research issues involved in bicycle deployment optimization is clarified. The research scope focuses on the deployment session. Under the framework of space-time subdivision, Markov chain and state transition matrix are used to analyze and describe the time-varying process of bicycle distribution between stations. Descripting the service level of the shared bicycle system in terms of demand-met probability, the bicycle demand at each deployment station is computed according to certain service level constraints. Based on these analysis and description, three core issues involving bicycle deployment optimization are put forward. These issues includes what is the optimal bicycle deployment under daily schedule scheme; what is the optimal deployment under once for all deployment without scheduling and how to handle the relationship between deployment amounts and re-scheduling frequency? Secondly, according to different bicycle re-scheduling schemes, combining with the constraints of the bicycle demand and the regularity of bicycle distribution along with time and space, the optimization models of bicycle deployment are constructed under different scheduling schemes. Based on analyzing the relation between the space of feasible solution and the optimal value of objective function, the natures of the optimal bicycle deployment is illustrated under different scheduling schemes. The results show that:(1) the subdivision of time and space is beneficial in better capturing demands and results in the increasing of optimal amount of bicycle deployment. (2) It is possible to reduce the amount of bicycle deployment by increasing the frequency of re-scheduling. However, the amount of bicycle deployment is limited with upper limit hsum2* and lower limit hsum3*. Finally, the data from a contest subject in 2017 College Mathematical Modeling Contest are used as a case study. By computing state transfer matrix and the demand of each deployment station, solving the optimization model numerically, how the model in this paper is applied is illustrated and verify the operability and effectiveness of the model in solving specific problems are verified. The model and corresponding solution process in this paper shed lights on solving optimization problem for resources allocation system.
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    The Evolutionary Analysis of the Influence of Value and Risk Perception on Cash Back for Favorable Comment
    HAN Jing, CAI Xun, TENG Xin-yu
    2019, 27 (9):  205-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.09.020
    Abstract ( 435 )   PDF (1972KB) ( 385 )   Save
    A large number of spam reviews have been encouraged by the cashback incentives for favorable comment on C2C platform, and the phenomenon has damaged the platform's credit evaluation mechanism. The dynamic evolution of the cash back for favorable comment not only stems from the interaction between the buyer and the seller on C2C platform, but also depends on their behavioral psychology. Therefore, the psychology theory is worth being introduced to explore the evolutionary mechanism of the cash back for favorable comment on C2C platform. In this paper, the prospect theory and risk perception factors are integrated into the evolutionary game analysis to build the perceived benefit matrix, which is different from the traditional benefit matrix. In this case, the dynamic evolutionary process of buyers' and sellers' behaviors can be better depicted under the setting of reward and punishment mechanism. From the perspectives of prospect theory and risk perception, the reasons why the stability conditions of optimal evolution results are difficult are illustrated to meet and the effects of evolutionary results caused by different parameters are simulated; therefore, the measures to manage the cash back for favorable comment are proposed. The result indicates:(1)Decision-maker's cognitive and optimistic bias and deterministic and reflective effect make it difficult for the system to converge to the optimal evolutionary stable point; (2)Improving decision-maker's perception of "gain" and "loss" and the loss aversion contributes to an evolutionary optimal result; (3)The evolutionary tendency and stability of the strategy can be changed when the following factors fluctuate around their critical point:the initial selection probability of both sides in the game, the earning of negative review, moral cost and public interest perception of buyers, the sellers' OPEX of cash back for favorable comment or not and the gain of contending for markets.In view of the cash back incentives for favorable comment, a theoretical analysis and quantitative research on the strategic interaction between the buyer and the seller on the C2C platform are conducted. This paper aims to provide theoretical support for relevant departments to manage credit speculation.
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