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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    28 April 2004, Volume 12 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    A Study on the Zero-Level Approach to Assets Pricing in Incomplete Markets
    CHEN Jin-long
    2004, (2):  1-5. 
    Abstract ( 1838 )   PDF (2171KB) ( 1550 )   Save
    The approach of zero-level pricing of a nonmarketed asset is to find the price such that a certain investor with special utility function and wealth will select the new asset included in his optimal portfolio at the zero-level.In other words,the optimal portfolio would not change at the price when the new asset presents.In this paper,the idea and characters of zero-level pricing will be introduced,which were presented by Lenberger and other researchers.After comparing this approach with e-arbitrage methods,we point out that the two approaches are the same under the condition of partially complete markets.
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    The Study of MNC Manageial Performance Evaluating Method
    BAI Han-fang, WANG Ti-yun
    2004, (2):  6-11. 
    Abstract ( 2007 )   PDF (1156KB) ( 1880 )   Save
    Compared to that of its domestic counterpart,evaluation on managerial performance of a multi-national corporation(MNC)has its own unique complexity.In addressing the complexity,this article presents a new paradigm on how to evaluate managerial performance of an MNC.In the process,a comprehensive value model serving as a standard for the evaluation will be developed.Finally,the article establishes an integrated model for a managerial performance evaluation system for an MNC.
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    Method of Analyzing the Behavior Properties of Stock Price Based on Partial Distribution
    DAI Feng, LIU Hui, QIN Zi-fu
    2004, (2):  12-16. 
    Abstract ( 2171 )   PDF (1546KB) ( 1461 )   Save
    Based on partial distribution[2,3],this paper gives out the concepts and analytic expressions of the behavior indexes of security price,extreme limit price,balanced price,focus price for the first time,particularly gives out the calculating methods of extreme limit price and focus price,the former is beneficial to judging the reversal position of price movement trend under the different significance levels,the latter is beneficial to judging that the focus of current price of security market is reasonable or not.
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    Consumer Credit Assessment via Principal Component Analysis Linear-Weighted Model
    LI Jian-ping, XU Wei-xuan
    2004, (2):  17-21. 
    Abstract ( 2010 )   PDF (561KB) ( 1766 )   Save
    This paper presents a personal credit assessment method via principal component analysis linear-weighted model(PCALWM).The objectivity,feasibility and applicability are the main merits of this method.The experiment study using real-life credit card data shows that the model has a good classification and an application foreground.
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    A Real Option Pricing Model Based on Information Entropy Theory
    CAI Jian-xue, QIU Wan-hua
    2004, (2):  22-26. 
    Abstract ( 2060 )   PDF (848KB) ( 2537 )   Save
    This paper presents a real option pricing model based on information-theory. It depends on historical data and investor’s experience to estimate the option price of a project or production,as a result it avoids the problem caused by traditional option pricing models which heavily rely on the choice of parameters and many assumptions.Furthermore,in this paper,the author also discusses the relationship between this model and the traditional option pricing model,and reasonably explains the importance of information in the investment decision Finally,the applicaition value of this model is illustrated by using an example.
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    Design of the Raw Material Industrial Index and Study of Its Funtions
    Luo Xiao-ling, Zhang Yang
    2004, (2):  27-31. 
    Abstract ( 2043 )   PDF (837KB) ( 2245 )   Save
    Commodities futures index,first as an economic indicator,second as a financial derivative tool,it is helpful for government department,investor and investigator to hold and grasp commodity price.Therefore,we bring forward the index compilation method according with the real condition of China and figure out the raw material industrial index.The conclusings have drawn,the Chinas raw material industrial index circulates normally,the Granger causality is existing from China’s raw material industrial index to PPI,the former leads the latter by three months.Since the China’s raw material industrial index reflects the price fluctuations of raw material industrial products,it could be a indicator to monitor the industrial boom of our country.Ultimately,the author suggests that the government administration should put the raw material industrial index into the Shanghai Futures Exchange as a financial derivative investable tool with a feasible plan.
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    An Integrated Vendor-Managed-Inventory Model for Deteriorating Item
    YU Yu-gang, LIANG Liang, WANG Chen, WANG Zhi-qiang
    2004, (2):  32-37. 
    Abstract ( 2165 )   PDF (1802KB) ( 1509 )   Save
    Reducing inventory levels of raw materials,work-in-process,and finished items simultaneously in different stages has become the major focus for supply chain management.In recent years,there has been a growing trend in both research work and practical applications of VMI(vendor-managed-inventory)policy for various industries.In this paper,an integrated inventory model is proposed for a single deteriorating item,a single vendor and multiple different buyers and common cycle time in all buyers.A numerical example is provided to illustrate the theory of the problem.
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    Optimal Control on Stochastic Inventory Systems with Time-Limited Free Backorders
    ZHANG Xiao-hong, CHEN Jian, PAN De-hui
    2004, (2):  38-43. 
    Abstract ( 2115 )   PDF (1862KB) ( 1570 )   Save
    Exercising optimal control on the internal stochastic inventory systems is essential to elevating the coordination of supply chain.We develop a practical model of optimal control on stochastic inventory system by considering the time-limited free backorders,which is usually a common phenomenon in the practical inventory activities,and the impact on optimal inventory law of stochastic factors,e.g.,return of sold goods,spoilage of stocked items,etc.And then,we obtain the optimal control law explicitly with the aid of dynamic programming.In addition,we give the numerical examples and illustrations.The results of this paper would provide theoretical evidence for making decisions on the inventory management and would make special reference further to elevating the coordination of supply chain.
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    Research on Supply Chain Inventory Contract
    SHAO Xiao-feng, JI Jian-hua, HUANG Pei-qing
    2004, (2):  44-48. 
    Abstract ( 2028 )   PDF (2176KB) ( 1582 )   Save
    The papev analyzes and compares supply chain optimal inventory strategies and inventory strategies under noncooperative situations between manufacturer and its supplier.Inventory contracts are designed.It demonstrates that supply chain inventory optimization can be realized through effective transfer payment contract by the manufacturer.
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    On Inventory Coordination Policy in Supply Chain
    LIU Yong-sheng, LI Min-qiang
    2004, (2):  49-54. 
    Abstract ( 2159 )   PDF (1249KB) ( 2097 )   Save
    A policy of coordinating inventory by common replenishment periods for a kind of lot-for-lot supply chain is studied and analyzed.In this supply chain,a supplier provides a single product to a single retailer who experiences stochastic demand.Under the proposed policy,the supplier specifies common replenishment periods.The supplier offers the retailer a price discount while the retailer’s replenishment period is in harmony with the supplier’s.It’s regarded as a Stackelberg game.After an approach to the game is developed,a numerical study is conducted and the benefit of applying the policy under certain conditions is analyzed.
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    Optimal Production Policy in a Supply Chain under Introduction of New Product
    SHEN Tie-song, XIONG Zhong-kai
    2004, (2):  55-59. 
    Abstract ( 2027 )   PDF (1608KB) ( 1879 )   Save
    As business competion and technological improvement make the product life cycle shorten,manufacturer needs to put new product into market continually.Marketing of new product is a long adaptive process of learn-by-doing in production and customer demand.This paper sets up a mathematic model to describe the production and inventory system with demand diffusion by Bass model in a supply chain.The optimal production quantities are found through computer simulation in a given example.This research improves the traditional production and inventory planning that is significant to market new product in a market-oriented supply chain.
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    Analysis on Influence of VMI on the Performance of Supply Chain
    TANG Hong-xiang
    2004, (2):  60-65. 
    Abstract ( 2051 )   PDF (980KB) ( 2049 )   Save
    The models of decentralized supply chain and VMI were constructed,the performance of these two kinds of supply chains were compared.It was pointed out that without effective coordination mechanism VMI could not show its advantage,and an effective way to promote the performance of VMI was put forward.In the end,a numerical example was provided to verify the conclusion.
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    A Probability Tabu Search Method for Solving Pickup And Delivery Problem with Time Windows
    LAN Bo-xiong, ZHAN Yue
    2004, (2):  66-72. 
    Abstract ( 1999 )   PDF (731KB) ( 1695 )   Save
    In this paper, a new probability tabu search method is proposed to solve the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (PDPTW). We first review the basic method of solving VRP and PDP problems, introduce the basic concepts of search method, and then illustrate the heuristic algorithm, which solves PDPTW with probability tabu search technique. Experimental results show that our probability tabu search algorithm yields better solutions than that the traditional method produced.
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    Study of MBOM Increasingly Receiving Based Large-Piece OKP
    SU Xiang, PAN Yan-hua, NING Xuan-xi
    2004, (2):  73-77. 
    Abstract ( 2092 )   PDF (675KB) ( 1628 )   Save
    According to the features of designing,producing,modifying,customer-tailor,and alternating configuration of large-piece OKP,the authors expounded the solution that technology can be configured for the order based on PPDM,so PBOM-O would be formed,MBOM would be increasingly received by ERP from PBOM-O.Technology configuration and increasingly receiving process were described.PDM/CAPP and ERP were intensively integrated.
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    Data Model of Dynamic Quality System Management Based on Customer Relationship Management
    CAI Shu-qin, TANG Yun-fei, WANG Qing-guo, ZHOU Yu-hua, LIANG Kai-chun
    2004, (2):  78-82. 
    Abstract ( 1931 )   PDF (901KB) ( 1655 )   Save
    The paper analyzes in detail the information hierarchy and flow of enterprise quality system management based on ISO9000 quality management system, studies the reusing, reciting and retrospecting requirement to data model by quality system’s constitution and upgrade and durative quality improvement, discusses the localization of actual quality management information systems, puts forward a dynamic quality system management data model and its framework and functions, and summarizes the model’s characteristic. Finally, it is shown that the model is very effective by an application instance.
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    Testing Fund Manager’s Forecasting Ability
    GUO Jian-jun
    2004, (2):  83-87. 
    Abstract ( 1915 )   PDF (2240KB) ( 1690 )   Save
    Fund managers say they can outperform market and get more excess return. This point has empirically been supported by the existing literatures in China. Using measure of Jensen,this paper studied 54 close-end funds by using weekly data and monthly data with longer sample period,the conclusion suggests fund managers do worse than a random selection policy,and they have no ability to forecast the future about individual stock or market.
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    Study on Knowledge Management Based Dynamic Customer Relationship Management
    LI Chun-qing, XU Yin-feng, ZHANG Yang
    2004, (2):  88-94. 
    Abstract ( 2012 )   PDF (1326KB) ( 2265 )   Save
    Based on the analysis of characteristic between firm and consumer,it presents the thought and the meaning of dynamic customer relationship management under B-C model,the method is valid and feasible by applying it to the data from one supermarket.And then,it presents that knowledge management based DCRM framework should include five processes,which are strategies forming,value creating,channel integrating,performance estimating and information management.The guidance significance of the research conclusions to CRM is also discussed.
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    Market Share Research Based on Customer Orientation
    HUANG Jin-song, ZHAO Ping, WANG Gao, LU Qi-bin
    2004, (2):  95-101. 
    Abstract ( 2353 )   PDF (1526KB) ( 1903 )   Save
    Market share is one of the most important aspects that companies pay their attention to. However, Chinese companies always tend to lower the price of their products in order to increase market share. In this article, we firstly describe the effects of customer satisfaction, customer loyalty and price that exert on market share in terms of customer satisfaction theory. Where after, we carry out an experiential analysis by using data of seven Chinese family electric appliances industries and draw following conclusions: Price exerts some influences on market share, but the pivotal factors of increasing market share are improving customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, customer brand image perception and customer product and service perception.
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    An Iterated Model on the Degree of Willingness to Cooperate Based on Member Characteristic and History Information
    YE Hong-xin, XUE Yao-wen, SHENG Zhao-han
    2004, (2):  102-107. 
    Abstract ( 2182 )   PDF (1438KB) ( 1661 )   Save
    In this paper, we above all present the concept of the degree of willingness to cooperate (DWC) based on relative game-theoretic concept from viewpoint of psychology. On the base of the consideration of member characteristic and history information, we build up DWC model on dynamic evolution of group, which surmounts the localization of the neglect of history information, group member characteristic, and their desire and of the absence of initiative interpretation about cooperation-competition-conflict. By that we open out the process of strategy adjustment and interaction of group member before attain equilibrium. In order to show its value in application, we engage in simulation study on DWC model involved with circumstance and continency and givea detail analysis about simulation result.
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    Study on the Buffer Weakening Operator
    DANG Yao-guo, LIU Si-feng, LIU Bin, TANG Xue-wen
    2004, (2):  108-111. 
    Abstract ( 2072 )   PDF (1351KB) ( 2585 )   Save
    Based on the present theories of buffer operators, we established the GAWBO(Geometric Average Weakening Buffer Operator), WAWBO (Weighted Average Weakening Buffer Operator), and WGAWBO (Weighted Geometric Average Weakening Buffer Operator) and so on, which all have the universality and practicability. At the same time, we studied their some characters and inherent relation between them, and effectively resolves the questions, which often come forth in modeling forecasting of disturbed data sequence by shock wave and there are some contradictions between the quantity result and the qualitative analysis.
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    The Strategic Topic of Dynamic Competition and the Approach to Upgrade Core-Competence
    YUAN Bin
    2004, (2):  112-117. 
    Abstract ( 2029 )   PDF (1031KB) ( 1941 )   Save
    Competitions between contemporary enterprises have changed from static to dynamic.Core competence turns into the ultimate source and basic driving factor of dynamic competition.According to it,corporate strategy should be converted from product-centered into competence-centered.Enterprises should constantly upgrade core competence through extracting system and organizational learning system.So,its competitive advantages can be maintained and enlarged.
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    The Influence of the Delayed Decision on the Dynamical Evolution of a Production System
    LI Yu, SHENG Zhao-han, CHEN Guo-hua
    2004, (2):  118-123. 
    Abstract ( 1840 )   PDF (1175KB) ( 1322 )   Save
    firms are bounded rationally in the market.So they make production decisions not only based on the marginal profit of current period but on the marginal profits of many continuous periods.The paper studies the influence of the delay on the system and finds that the stable region of Nash equilibrium is enlarged,which offers a realistic way to realize the control of the period doubling bifurcations.Meanwhile,when two parameters,adjusting speed and weighted factor,satisfy certain conditions,other complicated dynamical behaviors such as Hopf bifurcation will occur at the Nash equilibrium.Delayed decision rule can improve the system performance and has great influence on the market competition.
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    A Forecasting Model of Army Corps Casualty Rate in Mountain Offensive Operations
    QIN Chao, CHEN Guo-liang~, LI Rui-xing, CHEN Xu-dong, LIU Jian
    2004, (2):  124-127. 
    Abstract ( 2035 )   PDF (665KB) ( 2489 )   Save
    Empirical data were extracted from three corpses in one historical war,and the time series models were set up with Box-Jenkins method.we have also quantified several Factors that may have important influence in casualty forecasting,such as adversary weapon system parity,terrain,weather,etc.Especially we choose several social behavior factors by expert consultation,determined the weights of these factors by means of group AHP(analytic hierarchy process),and then constructed a quantitative indexes system of social behavior factors on battle casualties.After that,we set up the relative computer algorithm about these factors to adjust the computer simulation outcome based on the empirical data.
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    A Study on the Qualitative Simulation of Transformation Process of the R&D Team Performance
    LI Zhi-cheng, LI Qi, HU Bin
    2004, (2):  128-132. 
    Abstract ( 1965 )   PDF (781KB) ( 1726 )   Save
    In this paper, the factors influencing the team performance, which can be divided into structure variables, progress variables and state variables, are analyzed. The structure variables determine the potential team performance, and the progress variables and state variables affect the increment or decrement of the team performance during the team operation process. By using qualitative reasoning, the qualitative simulation model of transformation process for the R&D team performance is established, and its simulation results are presented.
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    The Quantitative Analysis of Performing Obligations in a Transference Contract of R&D Achievements:Designment of Incentive Strategies and Optimal Efficiency
    LI Ping, LI Chu-lin
    2004, (2):  133-138. 
    Abstract ( 1997 )   PDF (1566KB) ( 1876 )   Save
    A critical problem for transferring R&D(Research and Development)achievements from the party of R&D to the party of obtainment is how to ensure the interest of the former.This paper considers the designment of transference contracts based on game theory and quantitative analysis.We provide three types of contracts which are expressed normally in the quantitative way and are incentive compatible for the target that the party of obtainment performs its obligations willingly.The incentive compatibility of each type of the contracts is demonstrated respectively.The designed contracts are corresponding to three common situations in practice.For two of these situations, we also discuss the designment of the contracts with optimal efficiency for a double target,which is stimulating the party of obtainment to perform its obligations and maximizing the revenue of the party of R&D.The conditions of incentive compatibility with optimal efficiency in each situation are obtained.
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    Self-Organizing Modeling Methods and a Model Study on the Growth of GDP
    HE Yue, BAO Ai-gen, HE Chang-zheng
    2004, (2):  139-142. 
    Abstract ( 1886 )   PDF (596KB) ( 2144 )   Save
    The complexity of economic systems leads to the difficulty to explain the economic change and factors of influence.This paper sets forth an effective method to the research of the complexity of economic systems.At the same time,by the method to build a self-organizing model for explaining the growth of GDP,it is analyzing the critical factors which influence our national economic growth.On the basis of analyses,the countermeasures are put forward.
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    Mathematical Models of SARS Epidemic Disease & Mechanism of Prevention and Control
    LIU Yun-zhong, XUAN Hui-yu, LIN Guo-xi
    2004, (2):  143-148. 
    Abstract ( 2169 )   PDF (2140KB) ( 2897 )   Save
    Based on the law of disease propagation and conservation of population statistics,this paper sets up mathematical models of two,three,four,five kinds of persons for SARS Then,it applies mathematical method to analyze these models Finally,it gets the physiological senses of four mathematical models and mechanism of prevention and control respectively.
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