Table of Content

28 February 2004, Volume 12 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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The Positive Analysis of the Rules and Discretions in China's Monetary Policy LIU Jin-quan, YUN Hang 2004, (1):  1-7.  Abstract ( 1833 )   PDF (1432KB) ( 1814 )   Save This paper uses M1 and cross bank interest rate as the monetary policy indicator of China,in order to study whether the distinctions among anticipated policy,unanticipated policy,positive innovations and negative innovations are relevant for explaining movement in real output.The results show that there are clear asymmetries in the anticipated/unanticipated and expansionary/contractionary policies.The evidence supports that monetary policy of China is non-neutral and endogenous in a short time.It has not only the nominal impact on price level,but also the real impact on real output. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Asset Allocation Model Based on VaR YAO Jing, LI Zhong-fei 2004, (1):  8-14.  Abstract ( 2515 )   PDF (1340KB) ( 3105 )   Save This paper establishes the Mean-VaR model based on the well-known Mean-Variance asset allocation framework by replacing variance with VaR.By using the IsoVaR,the relations between Mean-VaR model and Mean-Variance model are analyzed.Furthermore,the cases with a riskless security,liability and non-normality are considered respectively.Finally,economic interpretations of some results in this paper are proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Compound Option Model Based on Jump Process ZHENG De-yuan 2004, (1):  15-19.  Abstract ( 2083 )   PDF (1007KB) ( 1739 )   Save Penning-Lint Jump process induced by outside information is used to describe the underlying asset and R&D spillover is considered when applying compound option model to R&D valuation,which makes the model more realistic.When using the model to value a typical R&D project, sensitivity results are obtained. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Portfolio Model Based on M-SemiA.D and the Empirical Research on Shanghai Stock Market ZHAO Zhen-yu, OUYANG Ling-nan 2004, (1):  20-23.  Abstract ( 2081 )   PDF (1688KB) ( 1572 )   Save There are two fatal flaws to measure the exposure with variance in Markowitz’s M-V Model.In order to measure the exposure in a more accurate way,the author brings forward the concept of SemiA.D,and makes improvement to the M-V Model with it.After analyzing the recovered prices of 50 typical stocks in Shanghai Securities Exchange,we conclude that on every expected rate of return,the portfolios based on M-SemiA.D Model are unexceptionally superior to those based on M-V Model,and the effective portfolio satisfies the "Two Funds Separation Theorem". References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Solving Optimal Portfolio Selection Problem with Short Sale via Interior Point Methods YANG Guo-liang, HUANG Si-ming 2004, (1):  24-27.  Abstract ( 1908 )   PDF (1013KB) ( 1530 )   Save This paper studies mainly the solution of Optimal Portfolio Selection Problem with the permission of short sale via Interior Point Methods.In real economic activities,short sale is widely used by some investors especially in western world.We solve the quadratic programming problems with no constraints about short sale via interior point methods.Furthermore,we obtain the graph expressing the relations between coefficient A and utility,in which the investor with maximum utility can be found. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Mean-VaR Portfolio Model under Constraint of Investment Chance GUO Fu-hua, PENG Da-heng, WU Jian-xiong 2004, (1):  28-34.  Abstract ( 2117 )   PDF (1561KB) ( 1567 )   Save Under the assumption that the rates of return of portfolio are normal random variables,a mean-VaR portfolio model under constraint of investment chance is established.Existence and uniqueness of the model’s optimal solution are discussed.Moreover,the explicit representation of the optimal solution is obtained. It is observed by comparison that the mean-variance portfolio model under chanced constraint is the special case of the model discussed in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Annual Report and SARS Announcement Effect:Comparison and Content NING Xiang-dong, LIU Qi-yun 2004, (1):  35-40.  Abstract ( 1899 )   PDF (2352KB) ( 1632 )   Save To some extent we can not find expected market reaction,which should be logically consistent to the financial performance,to the announcement of annual report in some Chinese listed companies.Somebody concludes that it is due to the investors’ignorance of the information of performance.Is this conclusion true?Since nobody knows the SARS event in details until the Chinese government announced the truth on April 20.This provides us with a good opportunity to test whether the market reaction to an announcement with full information is rational.Put SARS as matching event,we argue that the release in advance should play an important role in the explanation on the reaction to annual report. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Model Framework for Knowledge Capture Based on Multi-Agent WANG Jun, FAN Zhi-ping 2004, (1):  41-45.  Abstract ( 2107 )   PDF (951KB) ( 1875 )   Save On the basis of analyzing the orgaizational knowledge capture processes and characteristic of multi-agent technology, a model framework is presented to capture the organizational knowledge based on multi-agent.In model framework, the key technologies for the knowledge capture and the integrated approach to the knowledge are also given. According to the model framework, an organization can easily capture its knowledge from individual knowledge and can heighten the validity of knowledge management. Finally, a practical case study is give to illustrate the application of the proposed model framework. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Prameter Optimization of Production-Distribution Integrated System Based on Genetic Algorithm WANG Ying, SUN Lin-yan, LI Tian-fei 2004, (1):  51-56.  Abstract ( 2118 )   PDF (1194KB) ( 1302 )   Save To solve the conflicts resulted from the inconsistent targets of production and distribution,production system and distribution system should be integrated.In this paper,an integrated system is proposed which covers the distribution nodes,the final product inventories,the producing center and the material inventories in a demand-pulled supply chain.Furthermore,the optimal parameters of each subsystem,which make the system total cost be minimum while a given service level of markets demands is met,are determined by a genetic algorithm together with a generation algorithm of valid chromosomes.Analysis of an example concludes that the improvement of service level needs no increase of the total cost,in other words,the service level could be improved while the total cost could be reduced if the production system and the distribution system are integrated. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Retailers Strategic Alliances Based on Acquiring Decision Rights Leadership ZHONG De-qiang, ZHONG Wei-jun 2004, (1):  57-63.  Abstract ( 1981 )   PDF (1880KB) ( 1857 )   Save In this paper,we consider a single-supplier multi-retailers supply chain with single-product facing price-sensitive deterministic demand,and the supplier has complete information about retailers’ cost structure,the retailers have same cost structure.We examine strategic alliances among retailers acquiring decision rights leadership,and study the reflection of the strategic alliances among on the performance of retailers in and out of the alliance,the supplier and the total supply-chain.It is shown that the strategic alliances retailers can’t be profitable to all members of the supply-chain,but may be profitable to some members of the supply-chain in some case. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Projection Pursuit Model for Dynamic Multiple Attribute Decision Problems JIN Ju-liang, WANG Shu-juan, WEI Yi-ming 2004, (1):  64-67.  Abstract ( 2222 )   PDF (998KB) ( 2183 )   Save In order to determine the weights of attributes and period times in dynamic multiple attribute decision,an ideal point method based on projection pursuit for dynamic multiple attribute decision,named PP-IPM,is presented in this paper.In PP-IPM model,by using the interior information of decision matrix,decision matrices of decision schemes in three dimensions can be synthesized with projection values in one dimension which indicates comprehensive quality of decision schemes,and the decision schemes can be ordered according to the projection value of each scheme.By using real coding based accelerating genetic algorithm developed by the authors,the modeling of PP-IPM can be simplified by the realized process of projection pursuit technique,and can overcome the shortcomings of large computation amount and difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection pursuit methods.The case study shows that applying PP-IPM model driven directly by decision matrix samples data is simple,feasible,general and practical,and PP-IPM model can be applied to many dynamic multiple attribute decision problems. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Strategy of Optimizing Neural Networks by Genetic Algorithm and Its Application on Credit Scoring WU De-sheng, LIANG Liang 2004, (1):  68-74.  Abstract ( 2011 )   PDF (2342KB) ( 1671 )   Save Studying the international actuality of corporation credit scoring,a strategy of optimizing neural networks by genetic algorithm is proposed,thus the deficiency of local minimizing appeared while training the networks is handled.The optimized networks is named evolutive network.Then,after some distinguished indices selected and sample designed carefully,by use of the evolutive neural network,credit-score models applied to Chinese business corporations are built up in this study.Finally,comparison research of the credit-score models’ scoring powers are carried out by use of actural index data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Application of Quality Control Model of Materials Procurement Comprehensive Evaluation Targets System HU Hua-an, TIAN Yi-feng, XIANG Zhuo-yuan, DENG Wang-nian 2004, (1):  75-80.  Abstract ( 2061 )   PDF (1943KB) ( 1683 )   Save This paper constructs a set of comprehensive evaluation targets system of the materials procurement with the method of non-serial multi-hierarchy objective rule,presents a quality control model and an objective function about this system by using model reference theory.We comprehensively evaluate the materials procurement quality according to each phase in project management,and apply these specific materials procurement data into quantitative analysis at last.Consequently,we may exactly evaluate and control the procurement work after making use of the final results so as to improve the procurement quality and save the outlays. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Markov Chain Model Research and Analysis of on the Existence Probability of Military Pretending Objects as Attacked FANG Zhi-geng, JIN Xiu-man, LIU Si-feng 2004, (1):  81-84.  Abstract ( 1951 )   PDF (923KB) ( 1490 )   Save The pretending of the military objects is the important ensuring contents,and an action of the battle.Using the thoughts of systems theories and the theory of random process,the paper designs calculating formulas of the existence probabilities on the concealing real objects and showing false objects,and constructs the Markov model of the survival probabilities of the military objects when they are attacked.So,the model proposes an effective method that can reasonably estimate the survival probabilities of the military objects during the battle.In addition,the model provides a good basis to research the problems. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multidimensional Bertrand Model with Incomplete Information and Its Analysis TAN De-qing, LIU Guang-zhong 2004, (1):  85-88.  Abstract ( 2284 )   PDF (796KB) ( 1971 )   Save On the basis of reference,the paper further discusses the model of multidimensional static Bertrand game with incomplete information about two kinds of product with certain substitutive relationship between two enterprises and its multidimensional Bayesian equilibrium,then obtains the result that Bayesian equilibrium strategies in which two enterprises independently participate in game for every kind of product are inferior to Bayesian equilibrium strategies in which each enterprise considers two kinds of product joiutly to participate in the two-dimensional game. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Practice and Study of the Technology Inform Project Informationalization Management in the State-owned Great Steel Enterprise Based on Modern Project Management WANG Chang-feng, XU Cheng-ji, WANG Hua-lan 2004, (1):  89-94.  Abstract ( 2078 )   PDF (852KB) ( 1657 )   Save The paper discusses the problems of technology inform project implement in the state great steel enterprise,and puts forward the model of technology inform project informationalization management in the state great steel enterprise,and establishs the framework of technology inform project information system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Comprehensive evahuation Index System for Information System of Enterprise Zhang Ling-ling, TONG Ren-cheng 2004, (1):  95-100.  Abstract ( 2150 )   PDF (400KB) ( 3206 )   Save This paper analyzes specialities of the information system building,and puts forth necessities and principles of evaluating in per stage.Based on that, a theoretical model framework and evaluation index system is builded.This paper also analyzes the characteristics,purposes and functions of evaluation index system of per stage,especially of the fore-implementation and mid-implementation is tentative. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research on the Comprehensive Evaluation Method Integration Based on Method Set CHEN Guo-hong, LI Mei-juan 2004, (1):  101-105.  Abstract ( 1834 )   PDF (1976KB) ( 2157 )   Save Firstly the comparable methods set and compatible methods set are defined based on possible comprehensive evaluation methods in this paper,and compatible methods set is recognized by using fuzzy cluster analysis method.Then possible combinational evaluation set is confirmed based on compatible methods set,and evaluation methods integration model is set up to find the most satisfactory combinational evaluation. Thirdly the compatibility of the combinational evaluation conclusions is discriminated.Finally a practical example is given to show the effectiveness of the research in practice. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Principal Component Projection Method and Its Application to Regional Ecological Security Evaluation WU Kai-ya, HE Qiong, SUN Shi-qun 2004, (1):  106-109.  Abstract ( 1909 )   PDF (1119KB) ( 1630 )   Save This paper studies the selection of index system for evaluation of regional ecological security and weighting method,establishes the model of the principal component projection to assess regional ecological security.Through the empirical analysis of seventeen regions in Anhui province,the paper proves that the method is reasonable which can be used as theoretic basis for studies on evaluation of regional ecological security and management of eco-environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Integrated Knowledge Description and Qualitative Simulation Method for Group Behavior HU Bin, XIA Gong-cheng 2004, (1):  110-116.  Abstract ( 1873 )   PDF (1470KB) ( 1664 )   Save For the qualitative simulation problem on group behavior change process,the qualitative causal order and QSIM are integrated to study the knowledge description method of group behavior change,which covers description of exterior environment,management scenario,element state of group,relationship between elements and cultural environment.After that,the qualitative simulation rules and its algorithm steps are designed.From the conclusion of an application simulation,it shows that the methods set up in this paper can well solve the qualitative simulation for fuzzy management system.The simulation conclusion accords with the reality and organizational behavior theory. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on the Optimal R&D Approach and Level of Investment:An Absorptive Capacity Perspective WU Hai-bin, LI Yuan, XIE En 2004, (1):  117-121.  Abstract ( 1868 )   PDF (1542KB) ( 1773 )   Save R&D approach and the level of investment are the most important aspect in learning alliance,but the alliance partner’s absorptive capacity which plays an important role in learning alliance has been neglected in traditional organizational learning theories.In this article we proposed a common representation of absorptive capacity and analyzed how the absorptive capacity affects R&D approach and level of investment of each partner. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Entrepreneur Team in Venture Business ZHAO Yan, CHEN Xiao-jian 2004, (1):  122-130.  Abstract ( 1982 )   PDF (2474KB) ( 1260 )   Save Division of labor and specialization in venture entrepreneur team play a great role in the distribution of the output.This paper,with a Stackelberg game model,analyzes the distribution between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists.The entrepreneur devotes capital and endeavor,thus the incentive system in the contract correspondingly includes stock bonus and endeavor profits.The devotion sequence is distinctive,and affects both the output and the belief. Equilibrium devotion and output are improved under the circumstances of the team than that under the mono-agent,due to division of labor.The behavior of free riding is lessened,partly represented as the optimization of the investment.The investor also would like to devote more,and pays more to the entrepreneurs.The founding of team helps to avoid the substitution between the high wage rate and the high stock return.Furthermore,there may exists a kind of risk attitude interplay effect between venture entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Current and Future Studies on Structure of the Reverse Logistics System:A Review DA Qing-li, HUANG Zu-qing, ZHANG Qin 2004, (1):  131-138.  Abstract ( 3834 )   PDF (1372KB) ( 5534 )   Save With growing environmental concern,reuse of used products is receiving much attention recently.The research of reverse logistics system has received growing attention of scholars.In this paper we survey the recent research results on the structure of reverse logistics system based on its research questions and research methods.The structure characteristics,design principles and facility location of the reverse logistics system are particularly introduced,and the issues for future research on the structure of reverse logistics system are proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Survey of Supplier Selection Models and Approaches LIU Xiao, LI Hai-yue, Wang Cheng-en, CHU Cheng-bin 2004, (1):  139-148.  Abstract ( 3129 )   PDF (2349KB) ( 5389 )   Save Supplier selection is an optimal decision problem that draws attention from academic and industrial circles,and considerable research efforts have been and are continuously being devoted in the related areas.This paper categorically outlines the advances in research of supplier selections,and profoundly analyzes various purchase strategies,supplier evaluation rules,supplier selection models and the corresponding optimization approaches.Consequently,this paper identifies merits and setbacks of the approaches,their application scopes and existing problems,and further more indicates the future research directions. References | Related Articles | Metrics