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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    25 June 2025, Volume 33 Issue 6 Previous Issue   
    Over-reaction, Jump Return and A-share Momentum Strategy
    Longbing Xu, Wenbin Wu
    2025, 33 (6):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1247
    Abstract ( 13 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1145KB) ( 4 )   Save

    Existing literature have proved that the disappearance of momentum effect in A-share market is due to the over-reaction of investors, however such strategy construction through double-sorting that uesd in proving leads to its limited practical feasibility.In this paper it tries to find single indicator which can measure momentum effect, and transform momentum effect to momentum strategy.There are many individual investors in A-share market, which is one of the greatest differences between A-share market and other developed market like U.S. stock market. The researches on abnormal trading behavior in A-share market form stock exchanges have shown that individual investors who prefer short-term trading will exacerbate the intraday herd effect and promote stock prices to jump within the day.Based on this fact, daily return is decomposed into two parts: jump return and non-jump return, with the analysis framework of Lou et al. (2019) and intraday jump test of Jiang and Zhu (2017), and then subsequent analysis is conducted. Jump return is discussed from three perspectives: herd effect, fundamental information shock, and investor sentiment. The empirical results show that: (1) jump return is significantly correlated with intraday herd effect, while buying herd effect is positively correlated and selling herd effect is negatively correlated; (2) The PEAD phenomenon mainly comes from non-jump return; (3) Jump return is significantly positively correlated with investor sentiment. Based on the above empirical results, it is concluded that the jump return in A-share market mainly reflects the overreaction of investors, which is different from the explanation of risk premium or under-reaction in U.S. stock market.In the horizontal comparison of time series and cross-sectional, jump return can explain other overreaction proxy variables, but not vice versa. After eliminating the jump return, there is a significant monthly momentum effect in A-share market. From 2008 to 2019, the size neutral momentum long-short portfolio based on non-jump return achieved an average monthly return of 0.92% and 1.27% monthly alpha of the CH-3 model.The causes of intraday stock price jump in A-share market are analyzed for the first time, and momentum strategy is constructed with single indicator, that contributes both in the theroy and practice.

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    Systemic Risk Backtesting and Connectedness of Chinese Financial Institutions: Evidence from MES and ΔCoVaR
    Zisheng Ouyang, Xuewei Zhou
    2025, 33 (6):  14-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1453
    Abstract ( 13 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2918KB) ( 1053 )   Save

    The premise of preventing and defusing systemic risk is to accurately measure systemic risk. Through literature review, it is known that most of the existing research focuses on the measurement of systemic risk, and there is little literature evaluating the validity and accuracy of systemic risk. In addition, it is found that most of the literature mainly discusses the risk connectedness of financial institutions in the time domain, ignoring the connecting mechanism in the frequency domain. As a result, it focusy on two issues: (1) Backtesting the systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions to examine the effectiveness of MES and ΔCoVaR. (2) Based on the backtesting results of systemic risks, the risk connectedness among financial institutions is investigated by the quantile connectedness network in frequency.In response to the above problems, the following work is done: First, the MES and ΔCoVaR of 35 financial institutions in China are backtested by the unconditional coverage test, aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of MES and ΔCoVaR. Second, the early warning system is calulated to analyze the risk evolution of the financial system. Third, the quantile connectedness networks in the frequency domain through the quantile coherence method is proposed to explore the risk connectedness among financial institutions. Finally, the connectedness importance of financial institutions on specific frequency bands is measured.It is found that (1) During the period of financial market crisis, commonly used systemic risk indicators such as MES, CoVaR, and ΔCoVaR fail to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions. (2) Compared with the short-term and medium-term connectedness layer, Chinese financial institutions have obvious extreme risk linkage effects in the long-term connectedness layer. (3) In the short-, medium-, and long-term, small- and medium-sized financial institutions such as Bank of Ningbo, Industrial Securities, and Dongfang Energy have connectedness importance. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should pay attention to preventing the risk of "too connected to fail" of small- and medium-sized financial institutions.

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    The Impact of Debt-Based Incentives on Corporate Refinancing
    Zhiming Zhao, Qiong Pan
    2025, 33 (6):  27-36.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2498
    Abstract ( 14 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1184KB) ( 5 )   Save

    It is a critical way to promote the high-quality development of enterprises by promoting the efficient corporate financing and investment. Facing the refinancing chaos, external supervision is costly and inefficient. It is urgent to find an endogenous mechanism to induce managers make efficient investment and financing decisions spontaneously. In the real world, companies with inside debt (i.e., pensions and deferred compensation) have fared well during big shocks to the market economy, such as the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. However, the existing literature on inside debt mainly focuses on its impact on corporate risk-taking or initial capital structure, and does not use dynamic model to analyze the impact of inside debt on corporate refinancing. Using dynamic programming and stochastic control theory, a continuous-time growth option model is constructed to investigate the impact of inside debt on corporate refinancing. By using the backward recursive method, the risk-neutral value of each stakeholder before and after refinancing, and firm optimal refinancing strategy is calculated. Through theoretical derivation and numerical simulation, we have following three conclusions. Firstly, inside debt can effectively alleviate the distortion of corporate refinancing, improve the rationality of corporate investment, and make up for the lack of refinancing supervision. Secondly, executive compensation structure containing inside debt can send a good signal to the creditors, alleviate the agency conflict between managers and creditors, reduce the company's refinancing cost, and improve the company's refinancing efficiency. Thirdly, inside debt can mitigate the debt overhang problem after refinancing for high leverage firms, but have the opposite effect on low leverage firms. Inside debt promotes managers' rational investment and makes up for the inefficiency of refinancing supervision.

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    Interbank Risk Contagion and Effective Bailout Frontier under Dynamic Government Intervention
    Lu Wen, Ling Feng
    2025, 33 (6):  37-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.2166
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2338KB) ( 1 )   Save

    Government bailout during the financial crisis is a time-varying dynamic process, while most literature assumes that it is static, and finds that government intervention is an effective tool to block risk contagion and achieve financial stability. Systems subject is formulated and studied to a contagion process over time, with the system’s current state and the degree of government interventions affecting its future state. Then, the contagion risk under different intervention intensities is quantified and it is found that government bailouts can both reduce and magnify the contagion risk. Specifically, the government bailout can reduce the number of defaulting individuals in the bank contagion network, which in turn changes the risk spillover path in the network and the contagion cycle when the banking system reaches the steady state. When the intensity of government intervention is large relative to the external shock, bailouts can reduce the risk spillover path and contagion rounds, and then reduce the contagion risk of the banking system. On the contrary, government bailouts will increase spillover paths and contagion rounds, thus amplifying contagion risks.Furthermore, the bank risk contagion under different combinations of external shock strength and bailout intensity is simulated, and it is found that there is an efficient frontier of government bailout. Given external shocks, only when the intervention intensity exceeds the boundary can the government bailout play a role in blocking risk contagion and stabilizing the banking system; Conversely, the banking system could experience cascading defaults and even the loss of bailout funds already invested. In addition, it is found that the risk characteristics of the banking system will affect the location of the effective bailout frontier. Specifically, the greater the leverage skewness and direct correlation of the banking system, the more government intervention funds are needed to achieve effective rescue. Moreover, when the strength of external shocks is small, the impact of leverage skewness on rescue costs is higher than that of direct correlation. The effect of direct connectedness is greater when the strength of the external shock is large.Finally, based on the above research results, two policy implications are drawn. First, bank failure contagion is a dynamic process. Therefore, the setting of government rescue policy should pay attention to its comprehensive utility in the process of multiple rounds of risk contagion, rather than only the effect at the current time point, otherwise it may aggravate the contagion loss. Second, higher leverage skewness and direct correlation are the main factors that increase the cost of crisis management. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should strengthen the supervision of banks with high leverage and large-scale interbank business. The results of this paper have certain reference significance for the regulatory authorities to make crisis rescue decisions.

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    Patent Licensing Contract Design under Asymmetric Information: An Investment Spillover Perspective
    Benrong Zheng
    2025, 33 (6):  49-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1787
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (775KB) ( 1 )   Save

    The protection of intellectual property rights stands as a pivotal concern for businesses. In recent times, a surge in patent infringement and disputes has been observed both domestically and internationally. Central to this issue is the often-unreasonable nature of patent licensing agreements between patent technology providers and assignees. A crucial element affecting these agreements is the asymmetry of information. Manufacturers, positioned at the downstream end of the supply chain, are privy to in-depth market demand information, whereas patent technology providers lack such critical information. Moreover, patent technology providers, equipped with advanced technological and patent leverage, effectively restrict manufacturers in terms of distribution power. To lessen their reliance on upstream patent technology providers, manufacturers frequently escalate their investments in technological innovation to enhance their own innovative capacities. Nonetheless, the underlying link between patent licensing and the technological investments of manufacturers remains unclear. It probes into the optimal design of patent licensing contracts and the manufacturers’ technology investments in a scenario of asymmetric information in this paper, focusing on the spillover effects of manufacturers’ technological investments.

    A two-tier supply chain system is considered, consisting of a patent technology provider and a manufacturer. The patent technology provider licenses patents to the manufacturer under specific contracts, enabling it to produce and market products. Given its closer connection to the market, the manufacturer has a more accurate grasp of market demand, which is presumed to be its private information. Additionally, the manufacturer invests in technological innovation to curtail production costs. To effectively discern the private information, patent technology provider is necessitated to devise optimal patent licensing contracts, encompassing both unit sales commission and one-time fixed transfer payment.

    Utilizing the principles of information economics and mechanism design theory, a dynamic game model between patent technology provider and manufacturer is constructed. Employing backward induction for the analysis, the pricing and investment level decisions of the manufacturer in response to the licensing contracts set by patent technology provider are studied. It then evaluates the optimal licensing strategies of patent technology providers under both symmetric and asymmetric information scenarios, taking into account the manufacturers’ individual participation and incentive compatibility constraints. Further, the equilibrium of the game is used to assess the spillover effects of the manufacturer’s technological investments and its strategies for information disclosure. Ultimately, it delves into the patent technology provider’s optimal licensing contracts, considering variations in the reservation profits of the manufacturer across different demand scenarios.

    Several findings are obtained. First, patent technology provider is inclined to design a contract with ‘unit sales commission plus a one-time fixed transfer payment’ mainly in the scenario where the market’s potential demand is low under asymmetric information; otherwise, a contract comprising solely a “one-time fixed transfer payment” is preferred. Second, the benefit of manufacturer’s technological investments to both itself and the patent technology provider is contingent on demand types, yet invariably leads to an increase in demand and consumer surplus. Third, under certain conditions, the manufacturer is inclined to disclose private demand information, facilitating a shared information negotiation process with the patent technology provider. In conclusion, the study extends to the situation where differences exist in the manufacturer's profits under various demand types, affirming the conditions for the feasibility of patent licensing contracts.

    With the focus on the spillover effects of the manufacturer’s technological investments, it delves into the intricacies of designing optimal patent licensing contracts under asymmetric information. It not only enriches the theoretical landscape of patent licensing contract design but also broadens the application of mechanism design theory within the patent licensing domain. From a practical standpoint, the findings offer critical managerial insights into the formulation of patent licensing contracts and the strategic decision-making regarding technology investments by manufacturers in the face of asymmetric information.

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    Analysis on the Employment Effect of Two-way Spillovers Between Domestic-owned and Foreign-owned Enterprises in China
    Junjun Hou, Nuoya Yue, Youfu Yue, Jiabai Ye
    2025, 33 (6):  63-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1272
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (969KB) ( 4 )   Save

    Employment is pivotal to people’s wellbeing. In an era of unprecedented change, stabilizing market entities has become a key factor in “stabilizing employment and ensuring living standards” in China. As vital market players, both domestic-owned enterprises (DOEs) and foreign-owned enterprises (FOEs) play an irreplaceable role in stabilizing employment. Analyzing the employment effects of these enterprises and their economic linkages can provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing policies. Based on the OECD-AMNE and OECD-TiM database, for the first time, firm heterogeneity is incorporated into the spillover-feedback effects model, and vectors are compiled that distinguish employment in DOEs and FOEs. The employment effects of economic linkages between DOEs and FOEs in China from 2005-2016 are captured in this paper, with a particular focus on multiplier, spillover, and feedback effects, and a fresh look at the role played by FOEs in employment creation in China. The results show that both DOEs and FOEs in China have significant spillover effects on each other’s employment. Among them, the employment effects through spillover effects keep rising constantly for DOEs to FOEs, while these employment effects fall in fluctuation for FOEs to DOEs. Traditional statistical data underestimate the role of FOEs in employment creation. However, when considering the interaction between heterogeneous enterprises, FOEs in China contribute an average of 10% of national employment each year. Specifically, in various sectors of DOEs, the employment of Agriculture (AGR), Trade and Transportation (TTC), and High-tech manufacturing sector (HTI) is greatly affected by the spillover effect of FOEs, while for various sectors of FOEs, the employment of Postal, Telecommunications, Financial and Business Services (FBS), Trade and Transportation (TTC), and High-Tech manufacturing sector (HTI) is greatly affected by the spillover effect of DOEs. Furthermore, the employment creation related to FOEs is mainly concentrated in the service industry, especially Trade and Transportation (TTC). The research results not only enrich the understanding of the impact of international investment by multinational enterprises on a country’s employment, but also provide a useful theoretical basis for the government to keep the operations of market entities stable and maintain employment stable.

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    Social Network Group-buying: Pricing, Quantity and Consumers
    Tian Wang, Hanbing Tang, Yancheng Shi
    2025, 33 (6):  73-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0358
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1555KB) ( 6 )   Save

    Social network group-buying is one of the dominant marketing models, and may benefit the firm in expanding the potential market, increasing consumer awareness and promoting sales. However, the firm may incur a high commission fee charged by the group-buying platform and demand shift from high-price in normal selling to relatively low-price in group-buying. The research questions in this article are:(1) Whether the enterprise needs to implement the group-buying strategy? Can this strategy really bring about an increase in profits?(2) What impact do parameters such as market structure, diffusion effect, commission ratio and customer psychic cost have on the joint decision-making of price and group size? (3) Considering the platform commission ratio always has a negative effect on the company’s profits, is there a win-win scenario for the firm and platform? A market consists of a firm, a group-buying platform and consumers is considered, and joint decisions on pricing and group size are studied. There are two sales channels can be chosen by company, including retailing and group-buying based on platforms. In this article, customers are divided into transactional customers group and relational customers group based on their price-sensitive. First, a company will make a decision whether to carry out group-buying. Then the company retails goods to relational customers, and sells goods to transactional customers through group-buying. The goal of the company is to maximize its profits. The influence of different parameters in each case is analyzed, and both the good and bad effects of group-buying to company’s profits are discussed in social networks. In addition, the base model is extended to include a centralized-decision system and addresses the impact of cooperation between the firm and platform. Based on the analysis of company profits in different cases, it is found that: (1) Product cost is an important factor that affects company’s decision. (2) Longer time or more efforts are needed, more harm is done to profits. (3) Platform commission ratio always has a negative effect on profits. The company should establish a friendly and cooperative relationship with the group-buying platform, and be careful of choosing products. Through detailed numerical analysis, company’s decision about whether carry out group-buying in different cases and the impact of each parameter is explored. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to group-buying strategy, improving company’ profits and cooperation between platform and company.

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    The Integrated Optimization Project Scheduling and Personnel Assignment Considering Online-Onsite Collaboration
    Sha Tao, Jing Jin, Jing Zhou
    2025, 33 (6):  85-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0374
    Abstract ( 11 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (2136KB) ( 16 )   Save

    With the rapid development of information technology and the leading wave of digital transformation, many enterprises begin to transform operations such as online-onsite collaborative operation mode, based on the digital technologies of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms. In the context of digitalization, online-onsite collaborative operation mode will be widely applied with the integration of platforms and tools, and the creation of intelligent gadgets, in order to realize lowering costs and boosting productivity. For example, some tasks in projects including installation, inspection, testing, etc., are more suitable for online-onsite collaborative mode, that is, technological experts execute guidance online by visualization through information equipment.Here, an extension of multi-skill resource-constrained project scheduling problem (MSRCPSP) is proposed and investigated in this study. The distinct feature of collaboration between online employees and onsite employees is considered in MSRCPSP. More specifically, the human resources are categorized into online workforce who can only perform knowledge-based skills and onsite workforce with both knowledge-based skills and operation-based skills. The project activity network is consisted of two types of activities: 1) purely online activities which can only be executed by online workforce; 2) onsite activities which can be done in two ways, one is executed by onsite workforce alone, the other is executed by collaboration of online and onsite workforce. Compare with the traditional MSRCPSP, there are new decision variables in this problem for reasonably selecting execution mode for each onsite activities, the purely onsite mode, or the online-onsite collaboration mode. For the purely onsite mode, the onsite workforce who meet the conditions is scarce so there exists a delay on the spatial transfer and it is hard to implement parallel multitasking operations. For the online-onsite collaboration mode, although the resource waiting time is alleviated, the operational efficiency is highly relied on the collaboration between online workforce and onsite workforce especially for the challenging activities, which will cause the extension of processing time. Consequently, with the goal of minimizing the project completing time, a programming model is proposed to gain the optimal activity execution modes, scheduling scheme and workforce assignment under the constraints of resource limitation, skill type and level requirements, precedence relations. An adapted genetic algorithm embedded nine strategies is designed based on "highest level of skill first", "the most average workload first" and "the shortest processing time first", to satisfy the computational requirements of large-scale problems.The instances for different problem scales, namely 10, 20, 30, 60, 90, 120, are randomly generated. The large number of experiments are conducted, the model is validated and the proposed genetic algorithm has proven to be effective compared with Gurobi. Besides, the results are analyzed and several managerial insights are drawn. First, an increase in the proportion of online activities contributes to the shortening of the processing time, while an attention should also be paid to the overloaded online activities. Second, whether to adopt a collaborative mode should be fully deliberated including the durational amplifying effect of the collaboration difficulty, the scarcity of online and onsite resources, and the disparity in the knowledge-based level between online and onsite resources. Third, the frequencies of transfer are influenced by the ratio of onsite resources, so onsite resources should be added appropriately to reduce the flow frequency between regions when the transfer time is lengthy.This research can effectively offer guidance on the assignment of online and onsite workforce for projects with the rapid development and application of various digital technologies in many enterprises. Besides, it extends the research paradigm and theoretical underpinnings of the MSRCPSP.

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    Research on Miniature Multi-Project Scheduling of Service Project Enterprises Considering the Evolution of Human Resources Skills
    Song Xue, Xu Chen, Chao Li, Jingchun Feng
    2025, 33 (6):  96-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0896
    Abstract ( 10 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (742KB) ( 2 )   Save

    For project enterprises, how to use limited resources more efficiently to complete projects is the key to their survival. The projects undertaken by service project enterprises, which focus on miniature projects, are partially characterized by distributed multi-project and centralized multi-project and lack scientific basis in actual resource scheduling. So, the miniature multi-project scheduling of service project enterprises is taken as the research object, the evolution of human resources skills, sets relevant constraints are considered, an optimization model for multi-project completion time and skill growth is constructed, combining the related ideas of “allocation problem” and the standard NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm, and a case is adopted to test it. The result shows that this algorithm has obvious advantages over the standard algorithm. According to the dispatching results, “Capable people work more” refers to more work tasks rather than more hours of work; those with weak abilities should be assigned non-urgent projects with low-medium difficulties; and those with upper-middle abilities are the main people tackling difficult projects.

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    Research on Optimization Strategy of In-Kind Donation Selection and Sorting Based on Information Entropy
    Minlian Wu, Yu Fan, Xihui Wang, Lindong Liu, Yunbo Li
    2025, 33 (6):  105-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2046
    Abstract ( 15 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1398KB) ( 5 )   Save

    In-kind donations are one of the crucial ways for social forces to participate in disaster emergency relief. However, many inefficient and ineffective in-kind donations can take up a lot of resources and staffing of emergency management departments, leading to the aggregation effect of materials, which in turn affects the development of emergency relief work. The current difficulty in managing in-kind donations is how to screen and sort mixed types of materials and control the adverse effects caused by poor quality and ineffective donations. In this paper, an optimization strategy for screening and sorting in-kind donations is proposed based on information entropy to address the question of when emergency management departments should accept in-kind donations. Furthermore, how can allocate resources to handle in-kind donations achieve optimal results? These are two critical questions in in-kind donations for emergency management. A stepwise sorting system model for in-kind donations is constructed by comparing mixed information, corresponding judgment thresholds are given for judging sorting strategies such as rejection, error screening, and complete screening, and the effects of different covariates on each threshold are analyzed. Finally, by designing a stochastic sorting algorithm and an optimization algorithm under resource constraints, case studies on the proposed model are conducted to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed control criteria.

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    Construction ofLong-term-Multi-directionalSystem Evaluation Method Based on Individual Advantage Identification
    Xinan Zhao, Junling Chen, Chenxi Sun
    2025, 33 (6):  116-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0473
    Abstract ( 3 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (980KB) ( 2 )   Save

    The mastery of the dynamic development of things leads to the need for dynamic evaluation methods.In order to make up for the problems that the evaluation results provided by the single perspective dynamic evaluation method are less informative, the strength of decision support is weak, and the combination evaluation of multiple methods is not coordinated, a “long-acting and multi-directional” systematic evaluation method is proposed based on individual advantage identification.Firstly, in order to ensure the dynamic long-term performance of the evaluation process and fully explore the individual value of the evaluated object, the research framework including value index system under the strategic concept, dynamic data standardization, index weight, evaluation method selection, evaluation Angle and orientation is constructed.Secondly, in order to meet the needs of multi-directional evaluation, on the basis of "individual agent evaluation", the evaluation frameworks of multi-agent multi-factor dynamic evaluation (T-O-F), time-point cross-section dynamic evaluation (t-O-F), single-agent multi-factor dynamic evaluation (T-o-F) and multi-agent single-factor dynamic evaluation (T-O-f) are further constructed.Through model construction and application research, the following conclusions can be drawn:The method is based on the unified strategic concept to carry out multi-directional dynamic evaluation and analysis, and the guiding ideology is clear,it not only avoids the ambiguity of the guiding ideology of the combined evaluation method system, but also avoids the incongruity among the multi-angle evaluation methods.(2) The improved data standardization method has the characteristics of dynamic and long-term effect, which can not only evaluate the current information, but also be compatible with the subsequent newly added information, so as to meet the continuous and long-term needs of dynamic evaluation.(3) the weight of previous evaluation method for curing weights, the pattern of “unified” without respect individual value proposition by the evaluation behavior main body, and based on the individual advantage of feature recognition method, it is concluded that the personalized weight of the differences between the respect for the actors, the evaluation behavior subject can fully show their own good. At the same time, "agent evaluation" method can be evaluated from multiple angles, which is conducive to the objectivity and adequacy of the evaluation results.(4) This method has some functions that the existing evaluation methods do not have. The multi-agent and multi-factor (T-O-F) orientation can reveal the evolution of dynamic dominant characteristics and development level of (n*N) evaluated objects, the time-point cross section (t-O-F) orientation can reveal the dynamic dominant characteristics and development level of the evaluated actors at different time points, and the single-agent and multi-factor (T-o-F) orientation can reveal each evaluated row independently Body development status and multi-agent single factor (T-O-f) orientation can represent the performance of all evaluated actors in the whole stage of single index factor, and reveal the development differences of different evaluated actors in this index, and can also carry out comparative analysis among index factors.To sum up, this method can not only carry out outcome evaluation (evaluation ranking or evaluation value), but also carry out process evaluation, that is, it can identify the dynamic development characteristics and comprehensive level in the development process of things. Thus, “long-term-Multi-directional” process and result dynamic evaluation and analysis can be achieved, and the consistency of single evaluation method and the stability of combined evaluation method can further enhance the objectivity and practicability of evaluation.

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    A Comprehensive Evaluation Method Based on Extended Interval-Valued Fermatean Fuzzy Prospect Theory
    Shihua Luo, Jun Liu
    2025, 33 (6):  129-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0663
    Abstract ( 13 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (913KB) ( 2 )   Save

    In view of the existing problems of aggregative comprehensive evaluation information, such as single perspective, ignoring the correlation of indicators and abnormal preference information given by the irrational psychology of the evaluator, etc. Therefore, based on the interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy evaluation information, a comprehensive evaluation method of weighted power Heronian average operator and extended prospect theory is established in this paper. First, interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy sets (IVFFS) are used to represent the evaluation information of group experts, and the preference information is included in a larger range. In order to solve the interaction of input indices and the global equilibrium problem, a generalized interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy weighted power Heronian average (GIVFFWPHM) operator is proposed, and the important properties of the operator are discussed. Then, according to the different preferences of each evaluator in the group, the expert prospect weight is established, and the correlation coefficient between two interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy numbers is defined to determine the objective weight of the index. In addition, based on the extended prospect theory, a multi-index comprehensive evaluation process framework considering the bounded rationality of group experts is established. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are verified by robustness test and effective comparative analysis in five regions selected to evaluate the effectiveness of rural revitalization enabling poverty alleviation.

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    Research on the Timing of Online Public Opinion Intervention Considering the Psychological Factors of Netizens
    Mingzhu Wang, Linjiang Guo, Yijun Liu
    2025, 33 (6):  140-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1662
    Abstract ( 13 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (2649KB) ( 974 )   Save

    The timing of online public opinion intervention is crucial for the government in maintaining its public image, ensuring social stability, and gaining public trust. Existing research provides references for the government's control over the timing of intervention in online public opinion. However, in today's complex online environment, the internal factors among netizens cannot be ignored when considering their impact on the spread of online public opinion, especially their psychological factors. The SEIR model is built, taking into account the role of netizens' psychology in determining the timing of online public opinion intervention. It introduces a psychological tolerance parameter and investigates the impact of government intervention timing on the spread of public opinion. Through simulation experiments, it simulates the changes in the spread status of online public opinion in a scale-free network under different government intervention timings and different levels of psychological tolerance. The simulation results suggest that the timing of online public opinion intervention is not necessarily “the earlier, the better,” and the optimal intervention timing should be selected with consideration of psychological tolerance. Additionally, public opinion data are collected hourly during the outbreak periods of two events: “The student's fatal fall at Chengdu No. 49 Middle School” and “The destruction of the protective forest in Dunhuang's thousands of acres of desert.” It uses these case studies to validate the accuracy of the model through simulation. The limitations of the “fixed transfer probability” assumption in classical dynamics of communication is addressed and the impact of netizens' psychological factors on the effectiveness of government intervention is described by setting relevant mechanisms. The research findings hold significant importance for relevant authorities in conducting scientifically and reasonably governed online public opinion management.

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    Optimal Imperfect Maintenance Strategies for Repairable Systems Considering Repair Fatigue
    Wenjie Dong, Na Zhang, Chenchen Hua, Zhigeng Fang
    2025, 33 (6):  151-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1364
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (858KB) ( 1 )   Save

    Preventive maintenance is receiving widely attention and application both in industry and academia because it can eliminate potential faults in time and effectively improve system reliability. However, with the continuous increase of maintenance numbers, repairable systems in engineering practice gradually show long-term “repair fatigue”. That is, the marginal contribution of maintenance activities to the positive impact of improving equipment life and improving system failure rate will gradually decrease. Considering the phenomenon of “repair fatigue” of equipment in engineering practice, periodical imperfect maintenance models and sequential imperfect maintenance models are established based on dynamic failure rate improvement factor and age reduction factor, and subsequently, the optimal policies of the maintenance models are optimized according to the renewal reward theorem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that ignoring the repair fatigue will lead to excessive maintenance, not only wasting maintenance resources but also delaying the ordering of spare parts. In addition, the effects of various maintenance costs on the optimal decisions of periodic imperfect maintenance strategy and sequential imperfect maintenance strategy are analyzed, providing theoretical and technical support for industrial enterprises to better schedule maintenance activities.

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    Emergency Decision-making Method Considering the Influence of Expert and the Consistency of Valuation from the Perspective of Generalized Z-numbers Evidence
    Lei Zhang, Keke Han, Xin Ye
    2025, 33 (6):  160-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1222
    Abstract ( 7 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (677KB) ( 4 )   Save

    Emergency decision-making is characterized by multi-attribute group decision-making, and in the complex and uncertain scenarios, the reliability of decision information with hesitation will affect the decision outcome. A novel emergency decision-making method considering the influence of expert and consistency of valuation is proposed, from the perspective of generalized Z-numbers evidence. Firstly, the emergency decision problem is modeled based on the generalized Z-numbers, and then the expert trust network is constructed to analyze the influence of expert. On this basis, a method is proposed to analyze the weight of valuation by integrating the influence of expert and the reliability of valuation. Secondly, according to the intersection of hesitant fuzzy evaluation values, different consistent situations are analyzed and the corresponding evidence generation methods are constructed. Then, the D-S evidence theory is used to fuse multiple evidence to make the optimal decision of response plans. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified through a decision example of medical waste disposal device with infectious diseases, and the results show the decision outcome are more reliable.

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    Decision Making Method of Major Epidemic Prevention and Control Strategy Based on Fuzzy Influence Diagrams and Prospect Theory
    Zhipeng Chang, Zhiying Wang, Wenhe Chen
    2025, 33 (6):  171-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1030
    Abstract ( 6 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1032KB) ( 4 )   Save

    In order to minimize the impact of major epidemic on economic development, and balance the relationship between major epidemic prevention and control and economic development, a decision-making method of major epidemic prevention and control strategy is proposed, which is constructed by fuzzy influence diagrams and prospect theory. Considering that the decision-making of major epidemic prevention and control strategies is characterized by reference dependence, loss avoidance and probability judgment distortion, the prospect theory is used to make the decision of alternative strategies. In order to solve the problem that it is difficult to select specific reference points to evaluate the impact of prevention and control strategies on economic development, "before the implementation of prevention and control strategies" is selected as the psychological reference point for decision-makers, and the fuzzy influence diagrams are used to analyze the fuzzy influence relationship of prevention and control strategies on economic development. Fuzzy inference and fuzzy synthesis are used to evaluate the profit and loss of economic development brought by the prevention and control strategy and its probability distribution. Finally, the prospect theory parameters obtained from the experiments in China and the United States are compared by examples. The results show that the same optimal prevention and control strategy could be obtained regardless of the experimental parameters in the United States or in China, and the optimal prevention and control strategy is not sensitive to the loss avoidance coefficient λ. However, the suboptimal prevention and control strategy is sensitive to loss aversion coefficient λ, especially when λ=2.25, which requires decision makers to make careful decisions. If the decision maker is sensitive to the loss, it is recommended to adopt the experimental parameters in China.

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    Multi-attribute Group Decision-making and Its Application Considering Dual Interaction and Incomplete Rational Psychology in Fuzzy Heterogeneous Environment
    Chengwei Zhao, Xuanhua Xu, Ruihuan Liu, Jishan He
    2025, 33 (6):  182-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1835
    Abstract ( 15 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (821KB) ( 3 )   Save

    Multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) is widely used in many social fields. In practical MAGDM, the heterogeneity between decision makers (DMs) or attributes causes it to be difficult to accurately describe all attribute information in the form of a single preference. Meanwhile, there are often complex interactions between attributes or alternatives, which, if ignored, can easily lead to inaccurate attribute weights and preference information fusion, reducing decision quality. Moreover, due to the psychological influence of the decision environment and subjective cognitive limitations on DMs, DMs are often in a state of incomplete rational psychology during the decision-making process, and this can have a significant impact on the decision results. Therefore, it is necessary and important to consider the heterogeneous information, attribute and alternative interaction, and DMs' incomplete rational psychology in MAGDM. However, few MAGDM methods consider all three aspects simultaneously.To make this gap, a new MAGDM method in a fuzzy heterogeneous environment considering dual interactions and DMs' incomplete rational psychology is proposed. First, a bidirectional projection measurement of fuzzy heterogeneous information is defined, and the homogenous method of three-dimensional D-U space based on bidirectional projection is established. Second, a variance maximization optimization model is constructed to determine the local weights of each interaction attribute, and then the global interaction weights of interaction attributes and attribute sets are determined based on the generalized Banzhaf values of the λ fuzzy measure. Then, to describe and measure the alternative interactions, a alternative complex interaction network of integrated perceptual dominance and a global interaction integrated perceptual dominance model are developed. Following this, the classical TODIM model is extended, and an attribute and alternative dual interaction TODIM model considering the imperfect rational psychology of DMs is proposed to determine the alternative ranking. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the proposed method are proved by a site selection case study of hot dry rock development, and its superiority and scientificity are verified by comparative analysis. The results show that simultaneous consideration of heterogeneous information, attribute and alternative interactions and DMs' incomplete rational psychology will substantially improve the accuracy and robustness of MAGDM methods.

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    Pricing Decision and Channel Selection Strategy for Online Advertising Service Supply Chain Considering Add-on Service and Cooperation Mode
    Yunhuan Zhang, Zehui Ge, Daoping Wang
    2025, 33 (6):  196-207.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1065
    Abstract ( 12 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1034KB) ( 4 )   Save

    Whether to introduce direct channel,namely, establish an internal sales department to sell online advertisements directly to advertisers, is an important decision facing the media when it develops to a certain stage. It focuses on an online marketing service supply chain comprising of one media and one agency. There are four possible configurations in the market based on two different cooperation modes (premium mode and rebate mode) and two different channel strategies (the media introduce direct channel or not). The impact of cooperation mode, the proportion of add-on service purchased and the degree of competition between channels on the pricing decision and channel selection of service supply chain is considered and media-led Stackelberg game is used to solve the equilibrium outcomes of different models. It is found that 1) the introduction of direct channel is not always beneficial to the media, but is basically unfavorable to agents; 2) add-on service can alleviate the double marginal effect under the premium model, and the greater the proportion of add-on services purchased, the more evident the effect; 3) under different cooperation modes, the sales price of online advertising in the direct channel is always lower than that in the agency channel. The research results can be used as reference for media’s channel selection and agents' coping strategies.

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    Research on Pricing Strategy of Electricity Market Trading Platform under Virtual Power Plant Scenario
    Lingcheng Kong, Jiqing Xie, Zhenning Zhu, Wen Zou
    2025, 33 (6):  208-221.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1188
    Abstract ( 11 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1266KB) ( 3 )   Save

    The development of a virtual power plant is vital for the demand response of power market and the accommodation integration of distributed energy into the power grid. It is also one of the critical approaches to using clean energy and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. However, present power market pricing remains a crucial issue, particularly the green power-participated pricing problem in the power market. Several factors of bilateral users are considered in a virtual power platform based on the two-sided market theory: heterogeneity of demand price elasticity, the externality of the platform network, platform service quality, user behavior, and platform cost, etc., and the pricing model of virtual power plant platform with different charging modes under monopolistic and competitive market structures are constructed, and then the numerical simulation is performed. The following are the outcomes: (1) Compared with the single registration fee system and transaction fee system under the market structure of platform monopoly, the two-part fee system with a high service level is a more favorable model for the long-term development of virtual power plants. Compared with the platform monopoly, the single ownership pricing of supply and demand users in the competitive market can make the virtual power plant more profitable. (2) In the case of a platform monopoly, the platform pricing under the three charging modes is related to the demand price elasticity of supply and demand users. And it is suppose the registration fee is greater than the marginal customer acquisition cost. In that case, the pricing under the two-part system is lower than the pricing under the transaction fee only. (3) Under the market structured of platform competition, the platform pricing for multi-homing power supply users is lower than for single-homing power demand users. With the enhancement of the cross-network externality on both sides of the power supply and demand, the platform's pricing for the demand users is increased. Still, the pricing for the supply users is different. And the strong cross-network externalities of the multi-homing power supply users will further expand the platform's pricing advantage. In contrast, the strong cross-network externalities of the demand users will reduce the disadvantage brought about by the platform's biased pricing. (4) For cross-network externalities with different intensities at both ends of supply and demand, with the improvement of platform service level, the profit of the virtual power plant platform increases first and then decreases, with a maximum value.

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    Optimal Lot-sizing for Digital Perishable Auction Platform with Demand Learning
    Xiangtianrui Kong, Yanhong Long, Kaize Yu, Zelong Yi, Pengyu Yan
    2025, 33 (6):  222-232.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1410
    Abstract ( 10 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (963KB) ( 2 )   Save

    Due to the characteristics of large fluctuations in supply and demand, large transaction volume and strong timeliness in the fresh product market, the transaction prices of the auction items under different auction batches and sequences are quite different, and it is difficult for the auction platform to achieve the optimal revenue. In practice, the auction platform adopts a solidified auction plan decision based on the auctioneer's personal experience, which is difficult to adapt to complex situations where demand information is unknown and dynamically changing. From the perspective of the auction platform, this article explores how to dynamically adjust the auction batch to improve the long-term total revenue of the auction platform. Firstly, the influence of the game between bidders on the equilibrium bidding is analyzed, and the equilibrium bidding strategy of the bidders under the given auction batch is obtained; secondly, based on the price distribution and demand distribution of specific bidders, the single-stage revenue function of the auction platform is established; finally, a multi-stage revenue optimization model based on Bayesian-Markov decision process is built while dynamically learning demand signal. The online rolling horizon optimization method is applied to solve the model. Through a large number of numerical experiments, the management inspirations are obtained as follows: (1) Based on the continuous updating and learning of demand information, the auction revenue can be effectively improved by dynamically setting the appropriate auction batch, especially in the period of oversupply and seasonal fluctuation of demand; (2) When the gap between the initial belief and the true distribution is the same, the benefit of information learning under underestimated demand is higher than that of information learning under overestimated demand. Therefore, when it is difficult to predict the demand, the decision made by auction platform under the underestimated demand is better than the overestimated demand; (3) The auction platform can dynamically configure the optimal total auction stage, the optimal reserve price, and the optimal auction batch simultaneously to increase total revenue of auction platform.

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    Research on Influencing Factors of ConsumersEnvironmentally Friendly Clothing Purchase BehaviorBased on Theory of Planned Behavior and Norm Activation Model
    Wenchao Li, Jing Shao
    2025, 33 (6):  233-244.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0070
    Abstract ( 12 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (737KB) ( 1 )   Save

    Under carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of China, with the increasingly severe environmental and social impact of China’s residents’clothing consumption, changing China’s consumers’clothing consumption mode and promoting consumers to purchase more environmentally friendly clothing are the keys to alleviate clothing pollution and realize sustainable clothing consumption. Based on the integration of the theory of planned behavior and norm activation model, a theoretical model of the influencing factors of consumers’environmentally friendly clothing purchase behavior is constructed. Based on the online survey of 581 clothing consumers, structural equation model in used to test and discuss the impact of the theoretical variables on consumers’purchase intention and purchase behavior of environmentally friendly clothing, and the regulatory impact of perceived risk on the relationship between the consumers’purchase intention and actual purchase behavior. The results show that the theoretical model based on the norm activation model and theory of planned behavior can well explain and predict consumers’environmentally friendly clothing purchase behavior firstly. Secondly, personal norms and awareness of consequences significantly affected consumers’willingness to buy environmentally friendly clothing directly and indirectly; Thirdly, perceived behavioral control directly affected consumers’purchase behavior, but had no significant impact on behavior intention; Finally, perceived aesthetic risk plays a significant negative regulatory role on the relationship between purchase intention and purchase behavior. Those research conclusions provided some useful theoretical references and relevant suggestions for the formulation of relevant clothing green consumption policies and the design of more effective green marketing strategies.

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    Risk Avoidance and Financial Constraints under Promotional Efforts Dual-channel Supply Chain Coordination
    Leping Tan, Xuliang Wang
    2025, 33 (6):  245-254.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0055
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1618KB) ( 1 )   Save

    With the development of e-commerce, more and more suppliers have introduced online direct sales model based on the traditional retail model, which leads to both double marginal effects and peer channel conflicts for upstream and downstream enterprises. For this reason, retailers use various promotional effort activities to expand market demand in order to gain more market share in the competition, and these effort activities require a large amount of financial support, making the enterprises more prone to capital shortage. However, from the consideration of improving the overall performance of the supply chain, reducing the double marginal benefits, incentivizing retailers' promotional efforts, and designing proven coordination contracts by upstream enterprises to enhance the revenue of the supply chain system and increase the overall competitiveness of the supply chain have become the main means of operating enterprises in the supply chain. At the same time, as market competition becomes more and more intense, the uncertainty of market demand for products increases, and the risk borne by retailers increases, so the risk attitude of retailers may have an impact on the operation and coordination strategies of upstream and downstream firms in the supply chain. Therefore, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the coordination mechanism of the dual channel of financial constraints by considering the influence of retailers' risk attitude, financing and promotion efforts under stochastic demand.In order to effectively solve the coordination problem in dual-channel supply chain financing under the above conditions. In this paper, a bank lending financing model based on CVaR criterion for dual-channel supply chains is developed, and the optimal decision making and coordination of dual-channel supply chains under wholesale price contract and revenue sharing contract are analyzed, along with the effects of model parameter changes on the optimal decision variables and revenue of each firm. Finally, the main conclusions of the paper, the effectiveness of revenue sharing contract coordination, and the conditions for Pareto improvement are numerically verified.It is shown that under the condition that market demand and effort level satisfy the multiplicative relationship, the retailer's sales effort has a positive impact on the sales volume of both the retailer and the supplier, while the retailer's risk aversion characteristics only affect its own sales volume and have no impact on the direct sales volume of the supplier. Moreover, the risk-aversion and revenue-sharing ratios of retailers can be coordinated and achieve Pareto improvement in the dual-channel supply chain when a certain range is satisfied. Finally, the numerical analysis verifies that the revenue sharing coefficient decreases with the increase of risk aversion when the supply chain is coordinated; the expected value of the random variable of market demand is negatively related to the supplier's direct sales and the retailer's order quantity as well as their profits, but does not affect the supplier's wholesale price and the coordination of the revenue sharing contract. Therefore, in the supply chain financing and operation decision, it is more beneficial to the enterprise and the supply chain decision to fully consider the risk-averse characteristics of the enterprise, the volatility of the market demand and the impact of the coordination strategy to be more realistic and improve the market competitiveness of the supply chain.

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    Contract Selection with the Level of Separation in Dual-channel Supply Chain under Asymmetric Information
    Yao Luo, Jianheng Zhou
    2025, 33 (6):  255-264.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0629
    Abstract ( 5 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (822KB) ( 2 )   Save

    With the rapid growth of information technology and the changes of consumer behavior and preference, dual channels are pervasive in market operation. More retailers are adopting both online and offline sales channels by adding online stores to their traditional brick-and-mortar locations. Note that retailers are closer to their market and may also have better expertise in observing the demand of the market than manufacturers, which implies that demand information asymmetry is prevalent. In this context, long-term relationship is more subtle. In multiperiod cooperation, the information disclosed by retailers in each period can be used as the basis for future contracts. Therefore, they worry that manufacturers use the disclosed information to design future contracts that are unfavorable to themselves and have the motivation to report dishonestly. Thus, different incentive mechanisms are designed by manufacturers to screen retailers. Summing up, in the dual-channel supply chain with private demand information, the game theory and operational research optimization methods are embraced to develop three dynamic incentive mechanisms according to the level of separation. The impacts of asymmetric information and its degree on contract design, and the optimal contract selection are explored.Specifically, the benchmark under symmetric information is established firstly. Then, the full separation, full pooling and partial separation contracts under asymmetric information are modeled based on the level of separation respectively. Further, the retailer’s optimal price is analyzed. Finally, the contract preferences of retailer, manufacturer and supply chain are studied, accordingly, the win-win strategy is found, as well as the improvement of contract selection when the contract preferences are inconsistent. It is found that contractual design is closely related to the asymmetric information and its level; due to the influences of allocation and rent effects, the profit of the second period cannot be improved by information updating; regarding the cooperation of decentralized supply chain, the contract selection among the retailer, manufacturer and supply chain is affected by the discount factor, ex ante belief of manufacturer on the high-type retailer and pooling ratio, and there is a win-win situation. When the manufacturer’s contract preference is the same as that of supply chain while differs to that of the retailer, the contract selection improvement can be achieved by paying the retailer some new transfer payments. These conclusions provide the corresponding management insights. Firstly, the impact of information should be considered when manufacturers design contract; secondly, multiperiod cooperation is complex, and all players should maximize the profit of the total period, not the profit of a certain period; finally, for manufacturers, transfer payment can be used as an efficient tool to manage retailers and develop a stable and healthy relationship.

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    Information Sharing with Social Responsibility, Government Subsidy and Cost Sharing
    He Huang, Wenping Li, Hongyan Xu
    2025, 33 (6):  265-276.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0647
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1240KB) ( 4 )   Save

    In recent years, many companies have become more socially responsible than ever. One supply chain is considered in which the retailer exhibits social responsibility and requires the supplier to make effort to improve the level of environmental sustainability, and the retailer’s demand information sharing is studied. The benchmark model is first considered where both government subsidy and cost sharing do not exist under information sharing and no sharing respectively, and then the impacts of government subsidy and cost sharing on the retailer’s information sharing are analyzed. The impacts of government subsidy and cost sharing on environmental sustainability level, consumer and social welfare are further explored. It is shown that information sharing generates four effects for the retailer, namely, the sustainability improvement effect, the cost increasing effect, the double marginalization effect of information sharing and the responsibility variation effect. The retailer always benefits from the sustainability improvement effect, and may benefit from the responsibility variation effect, but is always hurt by the double marginalization effect of information sharing and the cost increasing effect. Whether information sharing is beneficial to the retailer depends on these four effects. The retailer voluntarily shares demand information with the supplier when the proportion of environmental sustainability cost shared by the retailer is small and the efficiency of the supplier to improve environmental sustainability level is not low, or when both of them are moderate. Meanwhile, information sharing always benefits the supplier. It is found that the retailer is more willing to share information when increasing government subsidy and decreasing the environmental sustainability cost shared by the retailer. It provides insights for companies to improve environmental sustainability level and share demand information.

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    Research on Channel Structure of Competing Supply Chain and Government's Recycling Reward-penalty Mechanism under EPR System
    Jianhua Ma, Meizhen Shu, Yanchun Pan, Wen Yang
    2025, 33 (6):  277-288.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0869
    Abstract ( 8 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (770KB) ( 4 )   Save

    EPR legislation, market competition and government’s recycling reward/punishment policy must have significant and sophisticated impacts on competing supply chain’s channel structure choice game behavior. Investigating the significant parameters that impact the competing supply chain’s vertical channel structure choice equilibrium can improve supply chain system’s efficiency and avoid chain members to be involved into the situation of prisoner’s dilemma. In addition, multi-externalities including imperfect competition, (dis-)economies of scale effect and so on have interactive impacts on inefficiency of chain-to-chain competition market under different EPR implementation strategies. Proposing government’s subsidy/tax policy can weaken such inefficiency and improve social welfare. As a result, the generalized study on competing supply chain’s channel structure strategy, government’s recycling reward/punishment policy and EPR implementation strategy is very important, which is not yet yielded by academic research.Considering the problems including competing supply chains’ channel structure selection and government's recycling reward/punishment policy design under different EPR implementation strategies including collective producer responsibility (CPR) and individual producer responsibility (IPR), a chain-to-chain competition model consisting of two manufacturers and two retailers is constructed by game theory. By comparing the equilibrium results under different channel structure combinations, two competing supply chains channel choice game equilibrium, equilibrium characteristic and the design of government's recycling reward/penalty mechanism are investigated.The results show that both chains proposing coordinated structure arises as a unique and dominant strategy equilibrium with either CPR or in IPR system. Under CPR system, two supply chains are involved into prisoner’s dilemma that declines both chains’ profits, when the recycling cost features with high degree of dis-economies of scale, or when the recycling cost doesn’t feature with high degree of dis-economies of scale as well as the market competition is intense. Under IPR system, two supply chains are involved into prisoner’s dilemma which declines both chains’ profits when the market competition is intense enough.Considering the coordinated/decentralized chain-to-chain competition market, the trend of government’ reward/punishment policy design is “tax-subsidy-reward” under CPR system and is “subsidy-reward” under IPR system, when the degree of economies of scale rises. The results will expand the existed closed supply chain channel management theory and government’s recycling policy design theory from the perspective of closed-loop supply chain competition and mechanism design.

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    A Study of Control Strategy about Transboundary Pollution under Emission Permit Trading and Competition Mechanism
    Ming Zhang, Linzhao Xue, Wenwen Wang
    2025, 33 (6):  289-299.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0960
    Abstract ( 14 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1695KB) ( 2 )   Save

    To deal with transboundary pollution problems in environmental treatment, a differential game model of transboundary pollution under emission permit trading and competition mechanism is proposed to explore the optimal strategies of oligopoly firms and evolution of local pollutant stocks. Under the optimal strategies, the conditions to the prices that contribute to achieve emission limit and pollution neutralization target are put forward and verified. The related properties of optimal value functions are analyzed. Subsequently, the differences in the emission abatement efforts of firms are revealed by comparing the optimal strategies under alliance and non-alliance scenarios. According to a numerical example, finally, the pollutant stocks and optimal value functions in regions are simulated. Based on the simulation, the effects of price and competition intensity of firms on the pollution stocks are studied. The conclusions show that: (1) the stock of pollutants in both regions is proportional to competitive intensity of local firms in the non-alliance scenario. At the same time, regions with a high proportion of transboundary pollution spillover have a stronger influence of competition intensity. (2) The stock of pollutants is significantly inversely proportional to price only in the non-alliance scenario. (3) Alliance game not only helps to reduce the total amount of pollutants in each region, but also has higher comprehensive benefits for firms, which is the ideal solution for controlling transboundary pollution.

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    Counterfeit Invasion and Brand Owner's Channel Strategies under Heterogeneous E-commerce Platforms
    Youguo Jing, Shunchao Pang, Yan Zhang, Kaida Qin
    2025, 33 (6):  300-311.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1566
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1102KB) ( 7 )   Save

    With the vigorous development of e-commerce, brand owners from all walks of life are selling their products through different types of e-commerce platforms. But what follows is that the very common product counterfeit phenomenon in reality is rampant in e-commerce channels. E-commerce platforms such as Taobao and Pinduoduo have become the main channels for counterfeit intrusion and sales. Therefore, e-commerce platforms are divided into two types: brand-oriented type and price-oriented type. Among them, the brand-oriented e-commerce platforms always promise that the products they sells are authentic, while the price-oriented e-commerce platforms have no such commitment. Some brand owners (such as Adidas, NIKE, etc.) only choose to sell on brand-oriented e-commerce platforms (such as Vipshop, JD (self operated), etc.), while some other brand owners (such as Shuangxing, Guirenniao, etc.) additionally choose to sell on price-oriented e-commerce platforms (such as Taobao, Juanpiwang, etc.). Two kinds of e-commerce platform channel strategies that brand owners can choose are considered: single-platform channel strategy and dual-platform channel strategy. Considering counterfeit intrusion and heterogeneous e-commerce platforms, several multi-stage game models are established under different situations, such as whether the counterfeit invasion exists or not and the brand owner adopts single-platform or dual-platform channel strategy. Our goals are to analyze how brand owner can cope with counterfeit invasion to ensure his profits when counterfeits seriously threaten their profitability and sustainable development in the online market, how brand owner affects the profits of all parties when choosing two different channel strategies, and how brand owner can take measures to cooperate with e-commerce platforms to prevent counterfeit invasion. It is shown that in the case of no counterfeit invasion, the brand owner always chooses dual-platform channel strategy. However, in the case of counterfeit invasion, when the difference coefficient of product quality is small, the brand owner will choose the single-platform channel strategy, and the possibility of making this choice is positively correlated with the brand difference coefficient of the two e-commerce platforms. The counterfeit invasion always damages the profit of the brand owner, but only when the brand owner chooses the single-platform channel strategy it will also damage the profit of the brand-oriented e-commerce platform. In fact, extensive numerical studies are conducted to confirm the above conclusions. In particular, through our analysis, it is found that if the brand owner chooses the single-platform channel strategy, he can successfully prevent the counterfeit invasion by charging a certain franchise fee to the brand-oriented e-commerce platform. Similarly, if the brand owner chooses the dual-platform channel strategy, he can also successfully prevent the counterfeit invasion by paying a certain channel fee to the price-oriented e-commerce platform.

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    The Effect of Customer Distance on Digital Transformation Orientation: A Relationship Perspective
    Chengyuan Wang, Qiong Wang, Biao Luo, Jun Li, Liang Liang
    2025, 33 (6):  312-321.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2276
    Abstract ( 12 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (575KB) ( 1 )   Save

    Digital technologies have been increasingly applied to facilitate collaboration between supply chain partners, while the antecedents that affect firms’ decisions on digital transformation under the supply chain context have been rarely studied. It aims to investigate whether geographic distance between suppliers and their major customers, which is one of the important characteristics of supply chain relationship, should be a significant antecedent affecting suppliers’ digital transformation decision-making, that is, deciding whether they behave similar in digital transformation orientation to their major customers.Drawing on the transaction cost theory and social capital theory, it is proposed that geographic distance can positively affect the similarity of digital transformation orientation between suppliers and their major customers. To empirically analyse this relationship and the underlying mechanism, a quantitative way is created to measure the similarity of digital transformation orientation between suppliers and their major customers based on the text analysis method, and a panel data of supply chain pairs collected from Chinese listed firms is constructed. Exogenous shocks and mechanism validations are also designed to establish the causality of the relationship between geographic distance and the similarity of digital transformation orientation.The findings show that geographic distance indeed positively drives suppliers to adopt similar digital transformation orientation with their major customers. This result is robust after a series of additional analyses. Mechanism analysis shows that geographical distance increases the disruption risk of supply chain relationship. In order to reduce the disruption risk of relationship with major customers, suppliers tend to make more relationship commitments, and thus actively follow major customers to adopt similar digital transformation orientation. Furthermore, the positive relationship between geographic distance and the similarity of digital transformation orientation could be weakened when suppliers are non-state-owned firms, when the board independence of suppliers are high, and when collaborating with high-profitable customers. Additionally, customer significance has an inversed U-shape influence on the above relationship.It contributes to the literature in the following ways. Firstly, it adds to the growing literature on digital transformation. It clarifies that the characteristics of supply chain relationship are important antecedents affecting firms’ digital transformation orientation, and deciding whether firms would behave similar to their customers in digital transformation orientation. Furthermore, it contributes to the literature by constructing a quantitative measure to estimate the degree of the similarity of digital transformation orientation between suppliers and customers based on the text content analysis method. Secondly, it enriches the literature on the important roles of geographic distance away from major customers in affecting firms’ strategic decision-making from the view of digital transformation orientation. Finally, it reveals that the disruption risk of supply chain relationship is an important driving force of geographic distance affecting firms’ digital transformation orientation, and thus deepens the understanding that firms would actively strengthen the similarity with customers in digital transformation orientation to cope with the disadvantages caused by a long-distance relationship.

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    Low-carbon Behavior Decision of Chemical Enterprises Based on Carbon Trading and Green Credit
    Tingqiang Chen, Wenjuan Lin, Lei Wang, Lean Yu
    2025, 33 (6):  322-334.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2715
    Abstract ( 9 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1412KB) ( 1 )   Save

    As countries around the world attach importance to low-carbon economy, in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions, governments have implemented a variety of carbon policies including carbon tax, carbon trading market mechanism and low-carbon subsidies, and established a carbon emissions trading market. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the main causes of global warming, and the chemical industry has a significant high energy consumption, high pollution, high carbon emissions of the “three high”characteristics, so in China to carry out carbon peak, carbon neutralization action and the construction of carbon emissions trading market in the chemical industry should also be the focus of the field. As the main financial service subject supporting the “double carbon” goal of the chemical industry, commercial banks are facing the “three high” characteristics of the chemical industry. How to set the green credit delivery standard has become the key to the financial service and support of the “double carbon” goal.From the perspective of green credit master-slave game crossover, considering the carbon trading standards formulated by the government, a Stackelberg game model of credit behavior between commercial banks and chemical enterprises under the carbon quota trading policy is constructed, in which commercial banks are the leaders and chemical enterprises are followers. The optimal decisions of each decision-maker in three situations ( chemical enterprises actively reduce emissions and sell surplus carbon emission quotas, chemical enterprises negatively reduce emissions and purchase carbon emission quotas, chemical enterprises negatively reduce emissions but do not purchase carbon emission quotas ) are mainly discussed. By comparing the profit functions under different modes, the influence of carbon trading price and carbon quota standard on the behavior decision-making of chemical enterprises and commercial banks is analyzed. Finally, the influence mechanism of carbon trading price, carbon quota standard and green credit policy on the low-carbon optimal decision-making of chemical enterprises is deeply explored by numerical simulation, and the theoretical analysis part of this paper is further verified.The results show that (1)when the carbon trading price is higher than a certain critical value, chemical enterprises can obtain higher profits when they implement strict carbon emission strategies and actively trade in the carbon trading market, and the profits of commercial banks also increase at this time, which is in line with the government 's green planning standards. (2)Too low or too high carbon emission quotas are not conducive to chemical enterprises to actively carry out green technology innovation. When the carbon emission quota is too high, chemical enterprises are more willing to purchase carbon quotas in the carbon trading market.(3) Under the joint action of carbon trading price and carbon emission quota, when the carbon price is high, the carbon emission quota will bring more profits to the chemical enterprises with strict emission reduction when it is higher than a certain critical value. Commercial banks are also more willing to give green credit, and the total social welfare is optimal.

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    Decision of Electricity Supply Chain for Considering Emission Reduction Strategy of Electricity Generator under Carbon Cap-and-Trade Policy
    Wenbin Wang, Jie Guan
    2025, 33 (6):  335-345.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1558
    Abstract ( 11 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1067KB) ( 3 )   Save

    Global warming restricts the sustainable development of human economy and society. The control of greenhouse gas emissions has become an important issue facing all mankind. Therefore, the government has introduced emission reduction policies one after another, among which the carbon cap-and-trade policy has been adopted mostly and widely studied by scholars. The electricity sector is currently one of the biggest sources of carbon emissions. Research and development of emission reduction technology to reduce the carbon emissions of electricity units is an important issue facing the low-carbon transformation of the electricity industry. The existing literature discussed the factors affecting the emission reduction of the electricity supply chain, the marginal conditions for the investment of electricity generators in carbon emission reduction technology, and the distribution of the responsibility for carbon emission reduction, rarely considering the selection of different emission reduction methods in the electricity supply chain under the carbon cap-and-trade policy. In practice, some firms, such as Shanghai Waigaoqiao Third Electricity Plant, choose to independently develop carbon emission reduction technologies, while others, such as Yueyang Comprehensive Energy Company, choose to cooperate with third-party energy saving service providers for carbon emission reduction. Various emission reduction methods bring different emission reduction benefits. Thus, it is necessary to explore and analyze how electricity supply chain firms choose emission reduction methods to obtain better emission reduction effects and higher profits.Motivated by enterprise practice and theoretical research, under the carbon cap-and-trade policy, an electricity supply chain composed of a coal-fired electricity generator (referred to as electricity generator), an electricity retailer and consumers is considered. Based on the electricity generator independently develops carbon emission reduction technologies or cooperates with an energy saving service provider in carbon emission reduction, four models of integrated sale and separated sale are developed respectively. The influences of consumer’s low-carbon preference, carbon trading price, the difficulty of carbon emission reduction technology developed by the electricity generator and the cost coefficient of the electricity generator’s production facilities renovation on the optimal emission reduction decision of electricity supply chain firms are explored. The results indicate that: i) the electricity generator tends to cooperate with the energy saving service provider to reduce emission under the integrated sale mode if the cost paid to the energy saving service provider is small; ii) if the electricity generator choose cooperative emission reduction mode, he is willing to pay higher costs to the energy saving service provider in the case of integration of generation and selling; iii) the carbon emission reduction strategies of electricity generator are different due to various consumer preference coefficients and carbon trading price combinations; iv) the carbon trading price raised by government or environmental awareness strengthened by consumers will help the electricity supply chain to increase carbon emission reduction and improve firm’s profits.Additionally, some management implications are obtained for the firms of electricity supply chain and the government: i) for the electricity generator, the selection of emission reduction methods and distribution modes requires comprehensive consideration of consumers’ preference for low carbon and carbon trading prices in the market; ii) for the electricity retailer, no matter which emission reduction method the electricity generator adopt, their profits will be maximum under the distribution integration mode. Therefore, it is suggested that they share the emission reduction costs of the electricity generator and cooperate with the electricity generator to improve consumers’ preference for low carbon and maximize their profits; iii) for the government, in order to strengthen the emission reduction efforts of firms, on the one hand, he can take measures to increase the market price of carbon trading; on the other hand, he can cooperate with the partners of the electricity supply chain to increase consumers’ awareness of green environmental protection through advertising, gift exchange points and other forms.

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    Research on Multi-attribute Group Decision-making Modeling of Energy Transition Path Evaluation Based on Dynamic Social Network
    Xunjie Gou, Xinru Xu, Zeshui Xu
    2025, 33 (6):  346-359.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1025
    Abstract ( 12 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1078KB) ( 4 )   Save

    The goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutral” is a new goal and requirement for China in the new development stage, and promoting the green energy transition of the whole society is an inevitable choice to achieve the goal. The evaluation and selection of energy transition paths involves a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of different energy transition paths, but this evaluation method faces the challenges of multi-dimensional variables, multi-structure coupling and multi-level structure. Aiming at the evaluation and selection of energy transition path, a multi-attribute group consensus decision-making model is constructed based on dynamic social network and public big data attribute mining in a complex cognitive language environment. First, a social network trust relationship based on double hierarchy linguistic terms is constructed, and a method for determining experts’ weights based on dynamic social network trust relationships is proposed, the dynamic trust relationships of experts are affected by their degree of consensus during a consensus iteration. Secondly, natural language processing technology is used to mine and process big data of public behavior preferences in social platforms to establish an evaluation attribute system, then a group consensus model based on the trust reward and punishment mechanism and integrating the trust relationship of social networks is proposed to promote consensus among experts. Finally, the proposed method and model are applied to the actual decision-making problem of energy transition path assessment. Among them, the green electrification high-growth transformation path scored the highest, with 0.7301, is chosen as the optimal energy transition path. Subsequently, a comparative analysis is conducted in many aspects, and simulation analysis is also carried out. The effectiveness and practicability of this research in solving the energy transition path assessment are highlighted and enlightenment and suggestions in this field are given.

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    Production Competition and Emission Reduction Technology Cooperation between Manufacturers under the Low-carbon Market Based on Blockchain Technology
    Jiangxia Nan, Xiaoyong Wu, Maojun Zhang
    2025, 33 (6):  360-368.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1421
    Abstract ( 5 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (963KB) ( 3 )   Save

    With the rapid development of the economy, a significant increase in carbon emissions, and environment pollution issues have become increasingly serious. With the increasing emphasis on low-carbon economy, governments have implemented many carbon emission policies, such as carbon tax and cap-and-trade policies. In addition, emerging technologies are constantly evolving, such as a blockchain technology, which can promote information sharing due to its decentralized and transparent characteristics. When facing carbon emission regulations, more and more manufacturers are conducting low-carbon technology research and development (R&D) to fulfill their environmental responsibilities. However, low-carbon technology R&D requires long-term investment. Collaborative R&D of low-carbon technology among manufacturers is an effective way to not only save costs but also accelerate technological innovation in emission reduction. For example, in order to comply with stricter carbon emission controls, Volkswagen and Toyota share the technological R&D costs and are collaborating to develop battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, in the low-carbon market empowered by blockchain technology, it is worthwhile to explore how manufacturers make production and emission reduction strategies when facing carbon emission regulations.A noncooperative-cooperative biform game model is constructed to examine the issues of simultaneous production competition and technology cooperation on carbon emission reduction (CER) between two manufacturers with different CER efficiency. Firstly, the production competition between two manufacturers is considered as a noncooperative game. Secondly, two manufacturers collaborate on emission reduction technology to share the investments, which can be considered as a cooperative game. The characteristic function of the cooperative game coalition is determined using maximum and minimum theorem. The profits of the coalition are distributed by using the Shapley value. Then, the profits of two manufacturers are obtained by the Nash equilibrium. In conclusion, the optimal solutions of noncooperative-cooperative biform game are determined, which includes optimal production, CER level, profit of each manufacturer, and emission reduction investment sharing ratio. Finally, how parameters such as blockchain operation cost, carbon price and emission reduction efficiency affect two manufacturers' optimal strategies is explored. The following results are found:The noncooperative-cooperative biform game not only solves the optimal operational strategies in the supply chain, but also coordinates the supply chain at the same time. When the emission reduction cost coefficient is at a certain threshold, as the increase of blockchain operation cost, manufacturers will increase production and emission reduction level, and the manufacturer with high CER efficiency and manufacturer with low CER efficiency improve CER efficiency will expand the threshold. The change of carbon price has different impacts on manufacturers with different CER efficiency. The manufacturer with high CER efficiency benefits from higher carbon price, and can make comprehensive decisions by weighing “carbon revenue”, sales profit, market share and other factors.

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