考虑网民心理因素的网络舆情干预时机研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1662

Abstract

Abstract:

The timing of online public opinion intervention is crucial for the government in maintaining its public image， ensuring social stability， and gaining public trust. Existing research provides references for the government's control over the timing of intervention in online public opinion. However， in today's complex online environment， the internal factors among netizens cannot be ignored when considering their impact on the spread of online public opinion， especially their psychological factors. The SEIR model is built， taking into account the role of netizens' psychology in determining the timing of online public opinion intervention. It introduces a psychological tolerance parameter and investigates the impact of government intervention timing on the spread of public opinion. Through simulation experiments， it simulates the changes in the spread status of online public opinion in a scale-free network under different government intervention timings and different levels of psychological tolerance. The simulation results suggest that the timing of online public opinion intervention is not necessarily “the earlier， the better，” and the optimal intervention timing should be selected with consideration of psychological tolerance. Additionally， public opinion data are collected hourly during the outbreak periods of two events： “The student's fatal fall at Chengdu No. 49 Middle School” and “The destruction of the protective forest in Dunhuang's thousands of acres of desert.” It uses these case studies to validate the accuracy of the model through simulation. The limitations of the “fixed transfer probability” assumption in classical dynamics of communication is addressed and the impact of netizens' psychological factors on the effectiveness of government intervention is described by setting relevant mechanisms. The research findings hold significant importance for relevant authorities in conducting scientifically and reasonably governed online public opinion management.

Key words: public opinion, government intervention, epidemic model, timing of intervention, psychological tolerance

CLC Number:

C912.63

Mingzhu Wang, Linjiang Guo, Yijun Liu. Research on the Timing of Online Public Opinion Intervention Considering the Psychological Factors of Netizens[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(6): 140-150.

Figures/Tables 11

符号	含义
U(t)	t时刻未知者的人数
K(t)	t时刻已知但未传播者的人数
D(t)	t时刻传播者的人数
R(t)	t时刻冷漠者的人数
N	网民总数
F	网民的自然增长率
k_i	网络i的度
α(t)	未知者(U)向已知但未传播者(K)的转移概率函数
β(t)	未知者(U)向冷漠者(R)的转移概率函数
γ(t)	已知但未传播者(K)向传播者(D)的转移概率函数
δ(t)	已知但未传播者(K)向冷漠者(R)的转移概率函数
ε(t)	传播者(D)向冷漠者(R)的转移概率函数
α₀	未知者(U)向已知但未传播者(K)转移的初始概率
β₀	未知者(U)向冷漠者(R)转移的初始概率
γ₀	已知但未传播者(K)向传播者(D)转移的初始概率
δ₀	已知但未传播者(K)向冷漠者(R)转移的初始概率
ε₀	传播者(D)向冷漠者(R)转移的初始概率
$μ$	转移概率的下限，如 $μ$ _UK, $μ$ _UR, $μ$ _KD, $μ$ _KR, $μ$ _DR
ζ	转移概率的上限,如ζ_UK,ζ_UR,ζ_KD,ζ_KR,ζ_DR
θ	心理容忍度
T	政府干预时机

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情景	1	2	3
事件类型	高敏感舆情事件	常规舆情事件	低敏感舆情事件
心理容忍度	θ=2	θ=5	θ=8

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Research on the Timing of Online Public Opinion Intervention Considering the Psychological Factors of Netizens

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