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20 October 2018, Volume 26 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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The Exercise and Creation of Growth Options and Risk Premium: From the Perspective of Firm Lifecycle LI Zhun, LI Qiang, ZENG Yong 2018, 26 (10):  1-9.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.001 Abstract ( 612 )   PDF (1115KB) ( 516 )   Save The activities of the exercising and creating of growth options jointly drive the evolution of firm lifecycle, and the relative power of the dynamic effects of two activities finally determines the change trend of the risk premium of total assets along with firm lifecycle. Different from the existing literature separately focusing on the roles of the exercising and the creating of growth options, the purpose of this paper is to theoretically demonstrate the combined roles of exercising and creating of growth options in determining the change of risk premium. Two main contributions are made in this paper. First, a unified explanation is provided for the roles of investments including capital expenditure, R&D or M&A in predicting asset returns. Second, an insightfully theoretical implication is shown that the dynamics of growth options can determine the development path of a firm over its lifecycle, and an explanation is given for the existing finding about U-shaped pattern of risk premium over firm lifecycle. real option model is firstly developed to evaluate a representative firm that will grow into maturity as the exercising of its endowed growth options and can simultaneously create new growth options in both young and mature stages of its lifecycle. Secondly, using the technique of pricing kernel, the dynamic effects of the exercising and creating of growth options on the risk premium for young and mature firms are demonstrated and compared, respectively. Finally, how the combined roles of the gradual exercising of endowed growth options and the continuous creating of new growth options determine the change trend of risk premium over firm lifecycle is analyzed. Consistent with empirical evidence on the relation between investment and expected stock return, it is found that the exercising of growth options decreases risk premium, while the creating of growth options increases risk premium. A further finding is that the negative effect of the exercising of growth options on risk premium is more pronounced for young firms, while the positive effect of the creating of growth options is more pronounced for mature firms. By combining the effects of two activities, the numerical illustration indicates that the gradual exercising of growth options leads to a downward trend of risk premium, but there may exist a U-shaped change of risk premium for firms being able to create continuously new growth options in the mature stage of their lifecycle. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pre-IPO Disclosure and IPO First-day Returns XU Guang-lu, MA Chao-qun, LIU Wei, Jia Yu 2018, 26 (10):  10-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.002 Abstract ( 595 )   PDF (1012KB) ( 264 )   Save Considering the influence of long-term holding income of IPO stocks on investors' decision-making, the utility function of single-period decision-making is extended to the utility function of multi-period decision-making. Under the framework of rational anticipation model, a theoretical model is established based on the microscopic structure of China's IPO market. A theoretical explanation is provided for the microscopic mechanism of information disclosure that affects the IPO first-day returns.The model shows that information disclosure is negatively correlated with the return on the first day of the IPO. The disclosed information, namely public information, reduces the degree of deviation of the secondary market pricing from the primary market pricing, and thus has a negative impact on the IPO first-day returns. The 593 IPO companies listed on the Shenzhen Main Board from June 2009 to November 2016 tested the model empirically.The empirical results support the theoretical model conclusions.The research in this paper not only enriches the research literature on IPO first day returns in terms of research perspectives and methods,but also provides supervisors with relevant decision-making suggestions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mean-ES based Portfolio Selection via Expectile Regression XU Qi-fa, DING Xiao-han, JIANG Cui-xia 2018, 26 (10):  20-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.003 Abstract ( 1022 )   PDF (1283KB) ( 372 )   Save Since the seminal work of Markowitz (1952), portfolio has drawn more and more attention from academics and practitioners. It is known to all that the risk measure plays an important role in portfolios. So far, there are many risk measures including variance, value-at-risk (VaR) and expected-shortfall (ES). ES, also called mean excess loss, tail VaR, or CVaR, is anyway considered to be a more consistent measure of risk than VaR. Consequently, the mean-ES model has become the focus of portfolio selection. The mean-ES model is traditionally optimized through analytical or scenario-based methods with large numbers of instruments, in which the calculations often come down to linear programming or nonsmooth programming. In order to reduce the computational complexity in the mean-ES portfolio decision, it is transformed to an expectile regression theoretically and a new method is proviede for its solution. The novel approach has at least two advantages. First, the model can be easily optimized and further extended due to the continuity and smoothness of asymmetric quadratic loss function in expectile regression. Second, the ES risk can be precisely measured through the relationship between ES and expectile results produced in expectile regressions. To illustrate the efficacy of our method, empirical studies are condueted on five representative stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (HS300) Index and our mean-ES model based on expectile regression with a mean-variance model is compared to that with a mean-VaR model. The data comes from the Genium Finance platform (http://www.genius.com.cn/) and covers the period from Jan 1, 2010 to Jun 26, 2017. The data are split into two parts:in-sample one with size 1212 from Jan 1, 2010 to Jan 5, 2015 and out-of-sample with size 602 from Jan 6, 2015 to Jun 26, 2017. The returns, the risks (standard deviation, VaR, and ES), the Omegas, and the efficient frontiers obtained by solving the portfolio selection problem under different risk measures are studied. The empirical results are promising and show that our method outperforms the others in terms of dispersing tail risk and improving portfolio performance. In practice, it is important to consider a large scale portfolio selection. To this end, it would be necessary to introduce variable selection techniques, such as Lasso, into expectile regressions to form a Lasso expectile regression approach. This approach can be applied to solve the large scale portfolio selection, which does not have in our current method. We leave this for future research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Wisdom of Crowds from P2P Lending Investors LIAO Li, XIANG Jia, WANG Zheng-wei 2018, 26 (10):  30-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.004 Abstract ( 589 )   PDF (1291KB) ( 353 )   Save The de-professionalized trend in Internet financial investment highlights the significance of crowd views, and the wisdom of crowd is increasingly attracting researchers' attention. The objective of this study to explore the predictive power of crowd views towards default rate by analyzing the evidence from P2P lending. The transaction data from Renrendai, a main P2P lending platform in China, is employed and the herding measure index of each loan is constructed for data analysis. It is found that the default rate of loan decreases as the herding effect of investors boosts under the control of all the other characteristics of loans and borrowers using Probit regression model. Further, regarding two loans with very similar characteristics, the loan with stronger herding effect is significantly less likely to default compared with the loan with weaker herding effect using the propensity score matching method. Herding, therefore, is informative in judging the probability to default. The duration analysis also indicates that loans with higher herding effect will significantly be less likely to default in the next month conditional on the loan repaid punctually for several months. With all the conclusion above, it is concluded that the crowd has wisdom in P2P investment and the wisdom of crowd offers new information to this investment. This conclusion is also helpful during investors' investment decisions process. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Fuzz Decision of Production-inventory with Quality Screening Risk FU Kai-fang, CHEN Zhi-xiang 2018, 26 (10):  41-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.005 Abstract ( 510 )   PDF (1626KB) ( 244 )   Save During production, product quality is not always perfect, since it is directly affected by the reliability of the production process. To ensure the customer requirement of quality, quality screening is necessary. However, the inspector may make inspection errors during the screening process, which leads to two types of quality inspection risk, i.e., type-Ⅰ risk and type-Ⅱ risk. Due to quality inspection risk, shortages may sometimes occur. On the other hand, there is uncertainty outside demand, and it is fuzzy. In the meanwhile, the productivity is also changeable, which is also fuzzy. Based on these internal and external fuzzy demand and fuzzy productivity, as well as the quality inspection risks, a two-level production-inventory decision with fuzzy demand and fuzzy production rate is studied. In the production-inventory system, there is one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer produces imperfect quality products and delivers the products to the retailer in small lots of equally sized shipments. Upon receipt of the products, the retailer will conduct a 100% inspection. As mentioned before, quality screening risk may occur for the retailer. By using JIT philosophy, the retailer has to determine the optimal order size and backordering quantity, and the manufacturer has to determine the optimal production batch and the optimal number of shipments between the manufacturer and the retailer per production cycle. The objective of this study is to minimize the total joint annual costs incurred by the manufacturer and the retailer. The signed distance method for fuzzy numbers is employed to transform the fuzzy total cost into the crisp cost. The total cost is proved to be a joint convex function of the size of the shipments and the backordering quantity of the retailer. Numerical examples show that with the increase of the expected defect rate, the optimal ordering quantity increases, the optimal backordering quantity decreases, and the optimal cost increases with a fast rapid speed. Type-Ⅰrisk makes total cost increase, but type-Ⅱ risk makes total cost decrease. The optimal ordering strategy is sensitive to type-Ⅰrisk, but not sensitive to type-Ⅱ risk. The contributions of this study are twofold. First, the inspection risk behavior is incorporated into the optimal decisions of the JIT production-inventory model. Second, the fuzzy demand and fuzzy production rate are considered to establish the model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Location-inventory Model of National Blood Strategic Reserves based on p-robust Stochastic Optimization Method ZHOU Yu-feng, LI Zhi, LIU Si-feng 2018, 26 (10):  52-63.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.006 Abstract ( 621 )   PDF (1597KB) ( 309 )   Save The practice of emergency rescue has put forward impending requirements for establishing the national blood strategic reserves (NBSR). An emergency blood support system urgently needs to be constructed in China. However, the characteristics of the blood products and emergency blood support make the location decision-making of NBSR complicated. Hence, a joint LIP is constructed by considering the lead-time, multi-scenarios, multi-stages, multi-blood types, daily stochastic demands, facility capacity constraints and coordinated location with aiming at maximizing timeliness of blood supply under unconventional emergencies. Then, a genetic algorithm is further developed based on the discrete nonlinear mixed integer programming model mentioned above. Finally, two sets of numeral examples is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The first set of numeral examples are conducted based on the data which from 31 provincial-level blood centers and provincial-level administrative regions in Chinese Mainland. And 6 numeral examples are given according to different budget values to initially make a location-inventory decision. The second set of numeral examples contains 6 simulation studies under different scales, which are used to test the performance of algorithm proposed in this study. The result shows that the genetic algorithm designed above has a better performance, which can lead to a very small gap (≤ 1.08%) between robust solutions and optimal values of the deterministic model and therobust optimization can reduce the uncertainty risk. In practice, the model constructed in this study can be revised and improved to provide a decision support in solving location-inventory decision problem about relief supplies reserve bases of perishable goods (such as drug, food, etc.) with similar characteristics. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of CSR Investment on Pricing and Coordination Strategies in Closed-loop Supply Chains ZHENG Ben-rong, YANG Chao, YANG Jun 2018, 26 (10):  64-78.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.007 Abstract ( 566 )   PDF (2591KB) ( 319 )   Save Recently, more and more firms are paying attention to improving corporate social responsibility (CSR). Many researchers have realized this important issue in supply chain management, and further attempt to analyze how to effectively make CSR investment under various decision-making environments. However, few studies have addressed the joint pricing and CSR investment decisions in the closed loop supply chain. On this basis, we aim to fill this research gap by exploring the effect of CSR investment on the optimal decisions and profits in the closed loop supply chain. Based on observations in the industry, Four following types of CSR investment are considered:(1) No CSR investment:neither of the manufacturernor the retailer makes CSR investment; (2) Manufacturer CSR investment:only the manufacturer makes CSR investment. (3) Retailer CSR investment:only the retailer undertakes the CSR investment activity; and (4) Joint CSR investment:both the manufacturer and the retailer jointly make CSR investment. In the closed loop supply chain, the manufacturer is responsible for collecting the used product. The standard Stakelberg game is used to model the interplay between the manufacturer and the retailer in the closed loop supply chain, the manufacturer is the channel leader and the retailer is the follower. Then, using first-order conditions, the equilibrium prices, equilibrium CSR investment level, equilibrium return rates and the optimal profits are obtained for each channel player and the system under the centralized and the decentralized models. By comparing the equilibrium decisions and profits among different models, it is found that the type of joint CSR investment is optimal for the manufacturer, the retailer and the chain system.In addition, the retailer is the better undertaker of the CSR activity than the manufacturer. However, the result shows that the equilibrium price is the highest under the joint CSR investment case compared with other CSR investment types. Hence, the consumers need to share a larger portion of the CSR investment costs under this case. The decentralized models have an efficiency loss because of the "double marginalization" effect in the closed loop supply chain. Therefore, how to coordinate the decentralized closed loop supply chains with the CSR constraint is explored. The result shows that the two-part tariff contract can perfectly coordinate the channel under different CSR investment types. By comparing the optimal parameters of the contract, it is found that the manufacturer's bargaining power in the contract is the lowest under the case of joint CSR investment; on the contrary, the retailer's bargaining power is the strongest under this scenario. Finally, a numerical example is used to analyze the impact of some key parameters on equilibrium decisions and explore the effectiveness of the contracts. Our results are helpful for the future research of the closed loop supply chain management. Furthermore, our research also provides certain support for firms in making CSR and collecting decisions, and helps the government to set relevant policies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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New Product Diffusion on Two Effects of Word of Mouth: Evidence from Movies ZHANG Xu, HOU Guang-ming 2018, 26 (10):  79-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.008 Abstract ( 593 )   PDF (1425KB) ( 346 )   Save In recent years, experience economy characterized by customer-oriented has become the mainstream economic form. The word of mouth(WOM) which reflects the product experience has been more and more important for new product diffusion(NPD). The NPD research needs to be adapted to the development of management situation. It is essential to stress the influence of WOM on NPD, and to make full use of WOM to improve the prediction performance. The existing research neglects the synergistic effect of positive and negative WOM and the application in market demand prediction. Therefore, WOM is introduced into the classic Bass model, the model is extended from two points of quantity and proportion adjusting effect, and the NPD model is established on two WOM effects, called DBM. Moreover, the properties of the solution are analyzed and the main law of NPD on two WOM effects is found. Based on it, 65 American movies between 2010 and 2014 including 42 nominations of Oscar Best Picture and 23 nominations of Golden Raspberry Award are chosen to make empirical analysis. The main research conclusion includes the following three aspects:firstly, quantity and proportion effect are two main effects of WOM on NPD. Quantity effect means that interest group affected by adoption group become a dynamic process. And proportion effect refers to the different degree of imitation effect of the buyers with positive and negative WOM, which influences the probability of purchasing decisions of potential groups. Secondly, the properties of the solution are analyzed and it is found that when net flow of interest groups and proportion of negative WOM increase, the peak time turns shorter and peak sales, cumulative sales at peak time and total sales become larger. But if the imitate effect is much more than innovation effect, the proportion of negative WOM is higher, the attenuation of NPD will get slower. Thirdly, the empirical results suggest that the improved model has better fitting and forecasting performance than the classical model. The meaning of this study includes the following three aspects:firstly, introducing WOM into the classic Bass model, we reshape the NPD process. Classic Bass model neglects the lost demand problem caused by negative WOM. The group flow process like "potential groups-interest group-adoption group-group with positive and negative WOM", which enhances the understanding of synergy effect of positive and negative WOM, is pointed out. Secondly, the new product diffusion model on two adjusting effects is established, the analytical solution is solved and the theoretical proof of the correlation between double WOM effect and NPD is given. Thirdly, based on WOM data, the NPD forecasting can reflect the consumer experience trend. Enterprises can then formulate the corresponding consumer experience promotion strategy and marketing strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination for Green Innovation-advertisement Decisions Based on Mixture CVaR Criterion QU You, GUAN Zhi-min, YE Tong, TAO Jin 2018, 26 (10):  89-101.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.009 Abstract ( 495 )   PDF (1971KB) ( 522 )   Save During the past few decades, the environmental protection has emerged as a hot topic in the whole society and changed consumer behavior, which is also included in recent market surveys. It shows that most consumers prefer to buy those products with lower environmental damage even if they cost a little bit more. Undoubtedly, consumer environmental awareness (CEA) is an important market force that can create incentives for firms to invest in the development and adoption by green innovation. In this context, many manufacturers have been actively engaging in designing and producing environmentally friendly products to obtain the corresponding competitive advantage. Besides the green innovation effort taken by the manufacturer, the advertisement effort, which conveys products' greenness properties, taken by downstream retailer also plays an important role in affecting green consuming and is a critical lever to enhance supply chain profitability in the marketplace. In order to encourage the retailer to engage in advertising, manufacturer often partially shares the retailer's promotion cost. Thus, when facing these issues, how to coordinate the manufacturer and retailer to maximize the supply chain profit has gradually absorbed the concerns and debates of any scholars. In this paper, for one manufacture-on retailer supply chain, those who perceive different risk attitude, assuming that the demand function is the common knowledge of both parties, a bi-level risk decision model based on the mixture CVaR criterion is constructed. Based on Stackelberg game and method, the manufacturer's optimal green innovation effort, the proportion of the advertising costs that manufacturer shared, the retailer's optimal advertisement level, members' performance and the total performance of the supply chain in decentralizeas well as in centralized decision-making mode are investigated and compared. Besides that, the analysis of investigating the impacts of decision markers' different risk attitudes on related decision variables and supply chain efficiency are also made. The result shows that the centralized decision-making equilibrium has more advantage. According to the comparison, a two-way cost sharing coordination mechanism that incorporated the risk compensation is proposed. With this contract, both manufacturer and retailer achieve the Pareto improvement in a reasonable transfer payment region. Finally, a numerical analysis is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the contract and the impact of members' different risk attitude on supply chain efficiency is also presented. The research shows that the optimal green innovation effort and advertisement level decreased with the decision maker's risk-averse degree,increased with the decision maker's risk-seeking degree in both decentralized decision setting and centralized decision setting. In the decentralized decision-making setting, it is effective, but only if their risk attitude parameters and profit margins meet certain condition, to encourage the retailer to improve advertisement level by means of manufacturer shares advertisement costs. Besides, no matter what risk attitudes the supply chain member perceive, the two-way cost sharing coordination mechanism which incorporated the risk compensation can always coordinate supply chain. And this coordination mechanism has a remarkable effect on performance improvements of the supply chain which consisted of a risk-averse manufacturer and a risk-seeking retailer. The research of this paper provides a basic idea and framework to related research of green supply chain coordination which incorporating decision makers' risk attitude and the heterogeneous of CEA. Meanwhile, the paper also plays the role of guiding manufacturer and retailer of green supply chain to make their operations decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Acquisition and Production Decisions of a Remanufacturing System with Multiple Types of Cores HUANG Di, ZHOU Hong 2018, 26 (10):  102-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.010 Abstract ( 574 )   PDF (2504KB) ( 306 )   Save There are many uncertainty factors in core acquisition and remanufacturing such as the quality and remanufacturing cost of cores, yield of the remanufacturing process, market demand for the remanufactured products and so on.As a result, the decision-making in production and core acquisition in a remanufacturing system becomes very challenging. A two-stage dynamic model is employed to study the optimal acquisition and production decisions of a remanufacturing system with multiple types of cores under demand uncertainty. This model is then extended to cases with a price-sensitive demand and/or random remanufacturing yield. With the objective of maximizing the expected profit of the remanufacturer, an efficient production frontier with respect to the unit acquisition and remanufacturing cost of each type of cores is first characterized. Based on the backward induction method, the optimal decisions of core acquisition and production are then derived for each case.Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the impacts of government subsidy, demand uncertainty, price sensitivity of demandand remanufacturing yield variation on the remanufacturer's optimal acquisition, production and pricing decisions. Our theoretical and numerical results show that:(1) there exists a convex and downward sloping efficient production frontier in the remanufacturing system so that any type of cores that is not lying on the frontier will never be used; (2) for the same amount of subsidies, core acquisition subsidy is more efficient than remanufacturing subsidy; (3) for the price-sensitive demand, the optimal price is larger than the sum of the unit acquisition and remanufacturing cost of the first used type of cores; (4) there exists a substitution or complementary effect between any two types of cores, depending on the differences in their unit acquisition and remanufacturing cost; and(5) there exists an hedging effect between demand uncertainty and remanufacturing yield variation, which is decreasing in the degree of demand uncertainty. Our research provides useful managerial insights for remanufacturing firms to make core acquisition and production decisions under uncertain environments. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Joint Ordering-Pricing Decisions for An Assembler under Random Supply and Demand JI Qing-kai, HU Xiang-pei, GUO Qiang, ZHAO Da 2018, 26 (10):  113-122.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.011 Abstract ( 592 )   PDF (1487KB) ( 312 )   Save The optimal joint ordering-pricing decisions are studied in an assembly system consisting of n components in a single period setting. Demand for the end-product is random and component supply capacities are uncertain due to unexpected breakdowns, repairs and reworks, etc. The assembler jointly decides components ordering amounts and end-product price before the supply capacities and the demand are realized. Using stochastic nonlinear programming, a multidimensional optimization model in which the object is to maximize the assembler's expected profit is presented. It is showed that the optimal ordering policy is to order equally despite the supply uncertainties, and then the n+1-dimensional model can be reduced tobe of two dimensions (i.e., a unified ordering decision and a pricing decision). One decision is fixed and the corresponding optimal path of another decision is derived, and then the global optimal solution along the path is solved. Numerical experiments are conducted to justify the model and to further explore the effect of random supply and demand. For the random supply, the increase of the mean is related to investments in new production line or promises of overtime work, the decrease of variance is related to enhancements of preventive maintenance for manufacturing equipments or enhancements of training and education for workers to avoid misoperations, etc., the simultaneous increase of mean andvariance is related to supplier outsourcing its work to multiple second-tier suppliers. Based on these relations with practice, logical explanations are came up with and managers are offered with useful suggestions and insights. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Production Unit's Carbon Emission Accounting Model in the Manufacturing System GU Bai-he, TAN Xian-chun, TAN Xian-bo, XU Bao-guang, LI Hui 2018, 26 (10):  123-131.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.012 Abstract ( 522 )   PDF (1412KB) ( 263 )   Save The manufacturing industry plays a pivotal role in China's national economy, but it is also the main source of environmental pollution, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission.The main reason of the huge amount of carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry is caused by high energy consumption, high material consumption and high carbon emissions in the machining process. In view of the increasingly stringent domestic and international environmental policy and industry energy-saving emission reduction standards, the urgent need to implement low-carbon development to control the source of carbon emissions in manufacturing enterprises and carbon emission reduction is required. The production unit as the smallest unit of the manufacturing system, the calculation of carbon emissions is to determine the total amount of carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing system and even manufacturing industry. Firstly, based on the existing research results, the carbon emissions caused by material, electricity, cutting tool, coolant, the unqualified product and scraps are taken into account, and the carbon emission sources of the production units are determined. Secondly, as the qualified rate has an impact on the amount of input and output products, it will eventually affect the carbon emissions of production unit. Aimed at the impact of qualified rate on the carbon emission of production unit, in case of given machining process, a qualified rate is incorporated into the carbon emission accounting system, and the production unit's carbon emission accounting model is constructed by comprehensively considering the qualified rate and the carbon emissions generated from material, electricity, cutting tool, coolant, the unqualified product and scraps. Thus, the carbon emission model of the manufacturing system is constructed based on its production unit. Finally, combined with a case study about carbon emissions in auto parts machining process, the application and solving steps of above model have been illustrated. It is shown from the study results that in the nine processes of the automobile exhaust device processing,the carbon emissions from the process of drilling macroporesis the highestof all production units under the condition of given qualified rate. In the meantime, in case of the definite qualified rate,among the carbon emissions caused by material, electricity, cutting tool, coolant, the unqualified product and scraps, raw materials have the largest carbon emission, then cutting tool and electricity are in the second and third place separately. By further analysis, it is found that any improvement of qualified rate in each the production units would result in a reduction in carbon emissions from its own and subsequent production units, while also reducing the level of carbon emissions throughout the manufacturing system. When the qualification rate is stochastic, the carbon emission accounting of production unit in the manufacturing is one of the questions worth studying in further research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Game Equilibrium of RFID Adoption Among Supply Chain Enterprises ZHANG Li-hao, LIU Bin 2018, 26 (10):  132-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.013 Abstract ( 604 )   PDF (770KB) ( 373 )   Save Research source of the problem:Inventory misplacement has always been a thorny issue in supply chain management. Despite the recognized potential benefit of RFID, firms in practice do not unanimously adopt it. RFID cost has long been identified as a barrier to RFID adoption. Will the RFID tagging cost still be the key barrier of RFID adoption under competing supply chains?How do supply chains adjust their RFID adoption strategies in response to competition? Description of the problem:Consider two supply chains i and j(i∈{1,2} and j=3-i), each consisting of one risk-neutral manufacturer i (she) selling a homogeneous product to one risk-neutral exclusive retailer i (him) via wholesale price contract and incurs a constant marginal production cost ci. We suppose that the supply chain i will only produce and sell product i. The two manufacturers are Stackelberg leaders, and the two retailers, as followers, engage in Cournot competition in a market. We define misplacement rate (1-θi)as the ratio of Retailer i's misplaced product to his order quantity. Retailer i's order quantity qi is associated with two quantities:θiqi, which is available to consumers by Retailer i, and (1-θi)qi, which is unavailable to customers because of the misplacement. Methods model of research:The process is essentially a Stackelberg game, the manufacturers move first to decide the optimal wholesale prices and then the retailers move sequentially after observing the pricing decision of the manufacturers and decide the optimal production quantities and whether to adopt RFID or not. For the four models, we obtain the profits of the supply chain players by using the economics model. Problem-solving ideas:In the first stage of the game, the manufacturers simultaneously announce the wholesale prices for their products. In the second stage, the two supply chains simultaneously decides on whether to adopt RFID technology to resolve the misplacement problems. Hence, the two supply chains exist four parallel RFID adoption decision units denoted by {N,Si,Sj,T}. In the third stage, the retailers decide the optimal order quantities to maximize their profits and compete in the market with Nash game. Research results:Compared to the Scenario N, one supply chain adopting RFID causes negative externality to the other chain. When the RFID cost is low, Scenario T is the equilibrium strategy for the supply chains. When the RFID cost is high, the low misplacement rate supply chain will not adopt RFID, while the other chain will adopt RFID to enhance his competitive power. The introduction of case data:The data in the article is referenced with former related papers in a portion. Thus, the results of numerical analysis in this paper can reflect the reality better. Contributions:Our research differs from the literature in that we explicitly model the competing supply chains to study its impacts on RFID adoption. It is shown that the retailers' RFID adoption strategies depend on the competitor's RFID decisions, misplacement rates, and RFID tagging costs. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Value Reconstruction of Own Brand Cars in China Based on Multi-Player Game GUO Ben-hai, WANG Han 2018, 26 (10):  140-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.014 Abstract ( 520 )   PDF (2251KB) ( 289 )   Save Realizing the transformation of China from a big automobile country to a powerful automobile country, the development of its own brand cars is imperative. Faced with increasingly fierce market competition, the own brand cars' weak plate are more and more prominent in the technology innovation and the brand premium capacity. As an industry with a high degree of industrial correlation, the strategic deployment of vehicles is relatively complicated. The reconstruction of the value system of self-owned brand cars involves a number of stakeholders, involving not only information uncertainty but also market demand. It is necessary to restrain the relationship between the profit and loss of the relevant subjects so as to make the behavior of the multi-party players tend to be gradual and stable, realizing the best balance of system benefits. By constructing an evolutionary game model among government, enterprises and consumers, the paper analyzes the relationship of profit and loss, the tendency of its behavior strategy to be asymptotically stable in the process of value reconstruction of the own brand cars in China, using MATLAB to simulate the evolution process of tripartite interaction, proving the influence of the change of important parameters on the system evolution. The results show that the main factors influencing the reconstruction of the value of own brand cars are government incentives, industrial value-added benefits, additional costs and opportunity losses, the reconstruction of value must adopt a strategy from different levels and take a multi-pronged approach, highlighting the guiding role of the government and the leading role of enterprises; we can focus on reconstructing the value system of China's own brand car from implementing self-owned brand car revitalization plan, government intervention plan of automobile consumption side and self-brand car image reshaping plan based on the strategy interaction among the three parties, in order to boost the development of China's automobile industry, making the high quality and good brand image of own brand cars rooted in consumers mind, achieving our own brand car nirvana rebirth with a new look for the market's goal. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Building Policies of Charging Stations with Automobile Supply Chain Analysis WANG Tian, DENG Shi-ming 2018, 26 (10):  152-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.015 Abstract ( 535 )   PDF (1311KB) ( 292 )   Save Greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants from transportation vehicles harm our green environment. Electric vehicles (EVs) offer great potential to dramatically reduce local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Switching the conventional transportation vehicles (petroleum) to alternative fuel vehicles (electricity) is the goal of the governments in China, the U.S. and Europe. However, range anxiety, which is caused by the very limited driving range of EVs, impedes potential consumers from adopting EVs. The question of alleviating range anxiety has become increasingly important for achieving a large adoption level of EVs. As the associated charging infrastructure building plays a key role in affecting the psychological understanding of consumers. The extension of charging network is an approach to alleviate consumers' range anxiety and to increase the EV adoption level. The automobile supply chain members, EV manufacturers and EV dealers, have incentives to offer building investment on charging network because that the expansion of charging ability on the road increases the willingness to pay of potential consumers, which may enable them to sell more cars and set higher prices. Two business models, M-Building (manufacturers take the charge of the building) and D-Building (dealers take the charge of the building) are considered and finding which one, the EV manufacturer of the EV dealer, is more suitable to take the charge of building charging network for larger EV adoption level is focused on. In addition, the preferences of the manufacturer and the dealer on the choices between M-Building and D-Building are also provided. Specifically, the Stackelberg Game is used to model the question in two scenarios, wholesale price is fixed or a decision made by the manufacturer. Optimal pricing and building strategies are obtained through sequential backward induction. Used values in the numerical studies are normalized by satisfying our model specifics. Our conclusions show that when the wholesale price is fixed, M-Building facilitates the adopting of EVs better at the beginning stage of the development of an EV market; D-Building facilitates the adoption of EVs better when the market becomes mature. However, neither of the two builders have an incentive to offer building investment. When the wholesale price is a decision made by the manufacturer, M-Building always better facilitates EV adoption. The manufacturer is voluntary even with high building costs. Our paper can provide the governors and builders with rich insights and recommendations. First, governors should subsidize the builders especially when the market is at its early stage. Second, the participation of EV dealers in building charging network is very important for the mass adoption. Finally, governors should pave the ways for implementing D-Building. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision Making and Efficiency Evaluation in A Supply Chain with TPL's Value-added Services Under Different Power Structures FENG Ying, ZHANG Yan-zhi 2018, 26 (10):  164-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.016 Abstract ( 543 )   PDF (2272KB) ( 262 )   Save With the rapid development of the third-party logistics industry, the competitive advantage of the third-party logistics service provider (TPL) is increasingly prominent in terms of operation scale, integration services and information acquisition. This has driven fundamental changes of relevant economic forces in supply chain. How TPL's economic power change affects the decision-making and operation efficiency of upstream and downstream members of the supply chain is a kind of theoretical problem with research significance.Based on above background, this study aims to explore the influence of different power structures on decision-making and operational efficiency in a three-echelon supply chain including a supplier, a TPL provider and a retailer, to seek an effective path of improving system efficiency under each structure.Considering the endogenous wholesale price and the value-added logistics services, we develop two sequential non-cooperative game models are developed when the TPL provider and suppler act as leaders respectively. The game equilibrium solutions in above two models are proved to be exist and unique. Research shows that the total expected profits under two structures are lower than that in centralized setting. The retailer's ordering quantity, TPL's logistics service level and the ratio between them under TPL-led situation are lower than the corresponding results under supplier-led situation. Thus, TPL-led mode results in the lower system operational efficiency. With the TPL's profit structure as the starting point, we introduce logistics service fee sharing and cost sharing strategies into each structure, in order to improve the operational efficiency. Then, it is found that the influence of fee-sharing is suppressed when the supplier could manipulate the wholesale price, which leads to the failure of strategy in both two structures. However, the system operational efficiency can be improved and also the Pareto improvement can be achieved under logistics service cost sharing strategy in both two structures when the sharing coefficient satisfies certain conditions. Moreover, the optimal sharing coefficient depends on the expected profits of TPL and system without sharing strategy in each structure. Finally, a numerical example with the uniform distribution market demand is presented. With model SD and LD as the reference, the impacts of logistics service cost sharing coefficient on the decisions of each member, the expected profits and the system's total expected profits in model SDC and LDC after introducing logistics service cost sharing strategy into the system are mainly analyzed. It is found that:in model SDC and LDC, the optimal logistics service level and ordering quantity may be greater than those in centralized setting; The same sharing strategies do not have the same effects and the retailer need to share more of the cost of logistics service cost in model LDC in order to achieving the same operational efficiency; In SDC and LDC, the efficiency of the system can reach its maximum value at the expense of the retailer's interestwhich is inconsistent with the whole systemoperational efficiency in some cases.The conclusions of this paper provide the theoretical bases for exploring the influence of TPL-led mode on decision-making and efficiency of supply chain members and seeking effective approaches to improveoperational efficiency ofthe three-echelon supply chainwith TPL's participation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Interests Gaming Analysis of Knowledge Transfer Among Three Parties Based on the Participation of Intermediary Organ WU Jie, WU Xiao-ju, CHE Xiao-jing, LI Peng, SHENG Yong-xiang, SHI Qin-fen 2018, 26 (10):  176-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.017 Abstract ( 558 )   PDF (3414KB) ( 361 )   Save Knowledge transfer is a complicated game process and intermediaries play a vital role. Knowledge transfer in alliance is taken as research objects and enterprises' different psychological pressures are considered. Firstly the bargaining game model between the two knowledge transfer subjects is established, then taking into the participation of the intermediary organ,this study analyzes how the revenues of the three subjects change and the influence factors.The results prove that the benefits of transfer subjects have a negative relation with subjects' mental stress and a positive relation with the opposite side's mental stress.In the process of bargaining, if the knowledge transfer subject has greater pressure, he is more likely to compromise and get fewer benefits. Knowledge transferor is in the ascendant if the two knowledge transfer subjects have the same psychological pressure. The revenue of intermediary organ is affected by the psychological pressures of game players under the participation model.When the intermediary organ cooperates with the knowledge transferor, his own pressure has little effect on the revenue. The receiver and the intermediary organ can earn large part of the revenue when the game agents have the same psychological pressure. When the intermediary organ cooperates with the knowledge receiver, his own pressure has large effect on the revenue. The transferor and the intermediary organ can earn large part of the revenue when the game agents have the same psychological pressure. At the same time, the revenue of intermediary organ is bigger when cooperating with knowledge receiver under the participation model. The revenue of intermediary organ is affected by the psychological pressures of three subjects under the dominant model. When the intermediary organ dominant the game instead of the knowledge transferor, he can earn revenue only if his pressure is lower than the knowledge transferor. The revenue has a positive relationship with knowledge transferor, but a negative relationship with knowledge receiver. When the intermediary organ dominant the game instead of the knowledge receiver, he can earn revenue only if his pressure is lower than the knowledge receiver. The revenue has a positive relationship with knowledge receiver, but a negative relationship with knowledge transferor. What's more, the role choices of intermediary organ has nothing to do with knowledge transferor's psychological pressure, it is mainly affected by the psychological pressure of knowledge receiver and intermediary organ himself. When the intermediary organ plays games with knowledge receiver, he should choose the cooperation model when both of their pressures are large. When the intermediary organ plays games with knowledge transferor, he should choose the cooperation model when the pressure of knowledge transferor is large. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Game Analysis on the Implementation of China's Drug Listing System Based on Path Dependence QI Yong, ZHOU Xing 2018, 26 (10):  187-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.10.018 Abstract ( 573 )   PDF (1760KB) ( 273 )   Save MAH system is a drug listing system, which is internationally recognized, features the diversification of production form, freedom of technology transfer, saving market resources, improving the quality of government administrative supervision and so on. In 2016, China carries out the drug marketing authorization holder system (MAH) in 10 provinces (cities), such as Beijing and Shanghai. Based on the path-dependence problem of China's drug listing system, an evolutionary game model is constructed, analyzing the internal institutional changes made up by drug research and development agencies, and pharmaceutical production enterprises, and external institutional changes made by governments and consumers, and the evolution path of game subject behavior is deeply studied. Research has shown that the internal system and the external system path dependence are the main reasons that restrict the development of China's pharmaceutical industry and the insufficient power of the new drug research and development. The internal institutional changes of drug listed companies mainly affect drug research and development institutions and drug production enterprises through scale effect and adaptability expectation, thus leading to the path dependence of the internal system of drug listing; The external institutional change of drug market is mainly influenced by the learning effect and the coordination effect of the government and consumers, thus generating the path dependence of the external system of drug listing. Based on this, Matlab is used to carry out numerical analysis to discuss the optimal stability strategy in the process of drug system change. And it has explained the path dependence of the village during the transformation of MAH system in China, which provides some reference for perfecting the path dependence of MAH system in our country. References | Related Articles | Metrics