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20 September 2018, Volume 26 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Universal Portfolio Strategy Based on Forecasting Price PENG Zi-jin, XU Wei-jun 2018, 26 (9):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.001 Abstract ( 670 )   PDF (1381KB) ( 440 )   Save Portfolio selection is a practical financial problem. It is mainly concerned with determining a strategy for allocating the wealth among a set of financial assets under an uncertain environment. Markowitz (1952) proposed the Mean-Variance Theory and pioneered the quantitative research methodology in portfolio selection. This approach assumes that investors have the ability to achieve full statistic information of prices, which, however, violates the real world. The strong statistic assumption determines this approach's poor performance in practical application. Following the Kelly investment model (1956), Cover (1991) proposed the on-line portfolio selection model, which has none statistic assumption of price. In this paper, the on-line portfolio selection is followed and the improved on-line strategies are studied. An on-line portfolio selection problem based on the expected utility maximization and L1-median estimator is investigated in this paper. Considering the EG strategy estimate next price trend with only one-period price information which is not sufficient, the next price trend with multi-period price information is estimated and the performance of on-line strategy is improved. Firstly, the Modified Weiszfed algorithm is applied to calculate the L1-median estimator of multi-period price. Based on the L1-median estimator, the estimation of future price trend is given by the ratio of L1-median estimator to close price. Then, via maximizing utility, a novel on-line strategy named EGLM (Exponential Gradient via L1-Median) is proposed. With portfolio vectors' distance defined by the relative entropy function, it is proved that EGLM is a universal portfolio. Therefore, as a universal portfolio, EGLM could achieve as much approximate return as BCRP. Meanwhile, by algorithm analyzing, it is found that EGLM's time complexity is O(mn)+O(Mn), which is linear with respect to m, number of securities, and is significant less that UP's O(nm). Thus, the proposed EGLM is suitable for real-world large-scale applications.Finally, based on 6 datasets from domestic and foreign real markets, an experiment is given to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of EGLM. The results show that EGLM has not only better performance of return but also better trade-off between return and risk than UP and EG. With the proposed EGLM strategy and its linear time complexity, investors can gather more precise information about securities' prices and save more calculating time. EGLM has not only the universal character but also good performance in practical performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Interval Quadratic Programming Model for Portfolio Selection with Improved Interval Acceptability Degree WANG Jian-jian, HE Feng, WU Zi-xuan, Chen Li-li 2018, 26 (9):  11-18.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.002 Abstract ( 706 )   PDF (889KB) ( 431 )   Save Based on the Markowitz mean variance model, the portfolio selection problem is disussed under uncertain environment in this paper. Estimation errors or uncertainties in expected return and risk measurement create difficulties for portfolio optimization. A new approach is proposed to treating uncertainty. By using interval numbers to describe the securities return rate, risk loss rate and securities liquidity, the interval analysis is used to extend the classical mean-variance portfolio optimization problem to the cases with bounded uncertainty, and an improved interval quadratic programming model is introduced for portfolio selection by introducing the linear transaction costs and liquidity of securities market. To solve the improved interval quadratic programming model, an effective method based on the improved interval acceptability degree is proposed to transform the uncertain programming into a deterministic programming, which can get effective portfolio's risk range of the model based on the optimization level α and acceptable level η. Thus, based on the portfolio's risk range, investors can choose a reasonable investment plan in an uncertain market environment. In addition, the proposed method is illustrated by three kinds of securities data experiments. The results show that the new approach is better than the method commonly used on portfolio selection. The proposed model provides a new way of investment for investors, and the solution for the model also provides a new idea for the researchers. But in the future, there is still a wide research space for the solution of the interval quadratic programming model for portfolio selection. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research of the Impact of Financial Reform on Total Factor Productivity-based on the Empirical Data of 5 National Financial Reform Test Areas CHEN Ye-ting, ZHU Rui, SONG Zhi-gang, YAN Dong 2018, 26 (9):  19-28.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.003 Abstract ( 619 )   PDF (2580KB) ( 381 )   Save Using five state-level financial reform pilot areas, the impact of financial reform on TFP is empirically investigated based on the counterfactual synthetic control approach. The research results show that in the five financial reform pilot areas, the reform measures of two reformed areas in Zhejiang and Yunnan can improve the total factor productivity in the reform area, while Fujian and Shandong financial reform do not have a significant impact on TFP growth.It means that Zhejiang's reform measures of private lending effectively expand the financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises and enhance the innovation ability of small and medium-sized enterprises. Besides,Yunnan financial reform experimental area has achieved remarkable results, and the innovation of cross-border business and other related business improves the financing dilemma of "going out". More advanced technology will be returned to the country through a reverse spillover, and the growth of total factor productivity is achieved. The above results not only improve the research on the impact of financial reform on TFP, but also provide effective data support for the current financial reform, and further provide some inspiration for the formulation and implementation of financial reform policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Open-ended funds “Pumping” Tests: The Empirical Evidences from Funds Sizes, Investment Style and Management Team LING Ai-fan, MOYANG Zi-yan 2018, 26 (9):  29-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.004 Abstract ( 635 )   PDF (1121KB) ( 313 )   Save The performances of funds have been paid close attention with the rapidly growth of the funds market. A special phenomenon has been found in funds that performances of funds can be unexpectedly improved at the end of each quarter and at the end of each year. An explanation for this phenomenon is the ‘windows dressing’ of funds, for which the managers will distort the performance of funds by buying the winner and shorting the loser. In this paper, another explanation for the phenomenon will be shown, that is the ‘portfolio pumping’, for which managers will continuously buy lots of the stocks owned by funds at the end of each quarter and at the end of each year. The main difference of windows dressing from portfolio pumping is that the stocks traded by the managers in the windows dressing can not be held by funds at the normal time. Methods:In order to test the portfolio pumping from windows dressing, the performance of funds is checked with respect to several factors. The measures of performances are multi-dimensions, such as, the daily return, the recess return, abnormal buying or selling volume. And the following regression is used. LRit=β0+β1 QENDt+β2 YENDt+β3 QBEGt+β4 YBEGt+εit, where LRit is the proxy of the daily return, the recess return, abnormal buying or selling volume. Data:The data from Jan. 2005 to Dec. 2015 for all open-ended funds of China is chosen. There are 2902 open-ended funds including 1122829 daily traded data of funds and 4891112 daily traded data of the heavy warehouse stocks of funds. The benchmark consists of HS300 index and Shanghai Security Exchange Treasury bill. Results:Our empirical evidences show that, (1) the daily average return is 0.38% at the end of quarter, and 0.62% at the end year higher than the average daily returns. (2) The effects are is indifferent for different investment style. However, the impact of different size funds on pumping is significant. Specially, meddle market value funds have the stronger pumping than small and large market sizes funds, for which are significant at level 1%. (3) The funds with only a single manager is easier to lead to pumping than the funds with team manager, moreover, the daily average return of funds with the single manager at the end of year is 0.14% higher than that of funds with team manager. (4) The findings show from the heavy warehouse stocks of funds that at the end of quarter or year, the declining sale trades, instead of increasing buying trades, may be another reason that the performance of funds is raised. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Analysis on Disposition Effect of Chinese Margin Trading XIAO Lin, ZHAO Da-ping, FANG Yong 2018, 26 (9):  41-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.005 Abstract ( 669 )   PDF (1108KB) ( 363 )   Save The disposition effect is the tendency to sell winning assets too soon, while holding onto losers too long. Since the start of securities margin business in 2010, the liquidity and activeness of the market has been greatly enhanced, along with the increase in the speculation brought by credit trading and the magnification of periodic volatility, which provides us with a unique sample for studying the disposition effect. In this paper, data from a famous national brokerage firm, which is comprised of 3239305 trading records of 30512 accounts from November 2014 to October 2016, is used. The classic PGR-PLR measure and the Cox proportional hazard model have been utilized to test the existence of disposition effect in the securities margin market, and the survival analysis is used to study the demographical factors influencing disposition effect. Empirical evidence shows that, overall, disposition effect exists in China's margin trading market. The female investor exhibits a stronger disposition effect than the male investor. People of middle age are more disposition-prone than people under the age of 35 while the magnitude of disposition effect of people of age over 50 is the largest. Using the number of different types of contracts that have been bought during the observation period and the overall volumes of contracts respectively as proxies for an investor's investment level, both results demonstrate that the better an investor is at investment, the lower his disposition effect is. Our results are robust when we rerun the model using Weibull hazard function. Our paper helps investors gain insight into their inherent behavioral bias and thus guide them to make rational investment decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting and Modeling of China's Nonferrous Metal Futures Market Volatility Based on the Introduction of External shocks: Taking Copper as Example ZHU Xue-hong, ZOU Jia-wen, HAN Fei-yan, CHEN Jin-yu 2018, 26 (9):  52-61.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.006 Abstract ( 674 )   PDF (1335KB) ( 292 )   Save In the context of China's gradual globalization of economy, to bring in external shocks for volatility modeling of China's nonferrous metal futures market is beneficial for improving the forecast of China's nonferrousmetal price volatility.Taking the high-frequency data samples of copper futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange as an example, the fitting effect of the new HAR-RV-CJN-ES model into which external shocks have been introduced is tested. Besides, the predictive accuracy of the volatility model is also evaluated by using bootstrapping SPA test.The results show that external shocks have great impact on the forecast of realized volatility of copper futures in the long term. Compared with the HAR-RV-CJ model and the HAR-RV-CJN Model, the HAR-RV-CJN-ES model with external shockshas significantly improve the fitting effect and prediction accuracy in the long run. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Hybrid Production Decision-making MTO-MTS of Based on Flexible System WANG Da-jin, BAI Jian-ming 2018, 26 (9):  62-74.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.007 Abstract ( 686 )   PDF (1951KB) ( 430 )   Save Research manufacturing enterprises adopt the way of hybrid MTS-MTO to provide products and service of strategies for different customers. In this paper, we aim to use a set flexible controllable dynamic equipments to process the different needs of MTS and MTO production projects. Therefore, a multi-server queuing model is developed, where a subset of the servers or machines is dynamically switched between MTS and MTO production via a congestion-based switching policy. Using the quasi-birth-death process and the phase-type distribution, MTS-MTO queuing system equilibrium conditions and the steady-state probability matrix geometric solutions are obtained. By solving partitioned matrix equations, the system queue length, average waiting for captain, customer service levels and other performance indicators are given. Furthermore a system operating costs optimization mathematical model is established. Using simulation search algorithm, the key parameters of the system boundary value are determined and the optimal policy of hybrid system operation is found. The numerical simulation and performance comparison and analysis results show:(1) Dynamic switching policy can more quickly help the MTS to recover the target inventory, control the risk of shortage and reduce the inventory holding cost. When the shortage rate reaches 1.1% of MTS dynamic system, the static system safety inventory level must increase from 26 to 160 to satisfy the demand and increase the static inventory pressure. (2)The the minimum number of the equipment configuration or lowest cost of inventory of production switching time are found to satisfy the customer service level, and it is found that the dynamic system of the average queue length is less than that of the static system. Even holding less finished goods inventory, the shortage rate of MTS in dynamic system (0.3%) is lower than that of the static system (0.9-4.8%). (3) Extracting from the MTS to the advantage of extra capacity is not enough to make up for the replacement cost, caused by the switch system and single equipment of switch system become the substitute method of the hybrid system, the inventory operation policy to design that dynamic system to control the static system of three key performance indicators:average level of inventory, shortage rate of MTS and queue length of MTS and MTO to achieve optimum operation. (4)When the maximum intensity 3.8 of system average arrival rate, system service level 0.95, policy of hybrid operation reduce 2/3 average queue length of the static system, firm can accept more orders and shorten MTO order delivery time during of the queue length decreases. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trade-in Strategy in Competitive Markets LIU Jing-chen, ZHAI Xin 2018, 26 (9):  75-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.008 Abstract ( 805 )   PDF (938KB) ( 376 )   Save Nowadays, trade-in programs are really common in various industries, such as home electronic appliances, smartphone, laptop, tablet PC and other high-tech product industries. Without any doubt, it is an effective way for the firm to improve product sales and profis by providing trade-in subsidy to consumers who have already owned the old generation of product. The extant literature on operations management have explored the impact of offering trade-in option from different perspectives including the firm's pricing, inventory, new product introduction decisions, and also the profit performance of the firm and the supply chain. Nevertheless, most studies focus on the context of monopolistic firm. Hence, little is known with regard to the firm's optimal trade-in strategy when facing competitor, or more accurately, new entering competitor. In other word, whether the firm's trade-in decision will be affected by the existence of competitor? Under this circumstance, in order to address the above problem, a theoretical model is constructed in this paper, deriving out the trade-in and pricing equilibrium under the competition of two firms who sequentially enter the market filled by consumers with heterogeneous willingness to pay. Based on this model, we, to begin with, solve the subgame considering potential competition in the cases of both firms offering trade-in, either firm offering trade-in, and no firm offering trade-in, and then investigate the competitive trade-in equilibrium. Finally, how the presence of competition may influence the firm's optimal trade-in strategy, pricing decisions, and corresponding consumer segmentation is analyzed. The research results show that, firstly, the pricing decisions under competition are influenced by the proportion of old consumers in the market, the new product innovation level of these two firms, and the salvage value of old product. Secondly, when the old product salvage value is relatively low and the proportion of old consumers in the market is moderate, both firms may choose not to provide the trade-in program in equilibrium, while both firms will choose to provide the trade-in program under other conditions. Thirdly, the first entering firm has no incentive to provide trade-in subsidy alone. Fourthly, the existence of competitor has significant impact on both thepricing and trade-in decisions for the first entering firm. This paper provides not only a theoretical fundament to the following research, but also managerial insights to the trade-in business in recent years. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-yard Cranes Scheduling Optimization of Export Container Yard Considering Real-time Pre-marshaling ZHENG Hong-xing, LIU Bao-li, KUANG Hai-bo, YAN Xu 2018, 26 (9):  85-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.009 Abstract ( 711 )   PDF (2546KB) ( 349 )   Save In the actual operation process of the export container yard, pre-marshalling is one of the bottlenecks that constrain the operation efficiency of yard cranes. In order to improve the operation efficiency of the export container yard and reduce the processing time of the shipment, the real-time pre-marshalling is adopted to reduce the impact of marshalling and optimize the scheduling of multi-yard cranes in the export container yard. Due to the fixed operation sequence of containers waiting for lifts and the constraints of non-crossing and safe distance among yard cranes, the real-time pre-marshalling is investigated, as well as considering the waiting time constraints of internal container trucks. A mixed integer programming model with a penalized objective function is proposed to minimize the total waiting time of internal container trucks. Based on the characteristics of the problem, a hybrid harmony simulated annealing algorithm is designed to obtain the walking path of each yard crane and a real-time pre-marshalling scheme. In the numerical experiments, compared with the scheme without considering the real-time pre-marshalling, the FCFS scheme and the lower bound, the effectiveness of the crane scheduling model and the algorithm considering the real-time pre-marshalling is validated, and a reference is provided for the crane scheduling in export container yard. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Cost Allocation for Combined Transportation of Perishable Products Based on Restricted Cooperation Game SHAN Er-fang, LIANG Li-min, ZHANG Guang 2018, 26 (9):  97-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.010 Abstract ( 620 )   PDF (867KB) ( 303 )   Save With the development of economy, people's living standards are improving. This results in the fact that more and more people have higher requirements on the freshness of perishable products. In the process of transportation, the freshness of perishable goods will not only decay as time passes, but also be affected by the preservation technology. But the construction of cold chain infrastructure in our country is still in the early stage of development, neither the cold chain technology nor the number of freezing facilities meet the needs of the market. So the perishable goods retailers have proposed collaboration transportation to increase the utilization rate of cold chain facilities and reduce the transportation cost. Hence, it is necessary to pour attention to cost allocation between cooperation alliances. On the basis of this, the two questions concerned in this paper are presented:(1) How to measure the freshness of perishable products and the impact of preservation technology on the freshness of perishable products? (2) How to formulate the cost allocation problem with capacity constraints? To answer these questions, the study is conducted by the following steps. First, the impact of preservation technology on the freshness of perishable products is analyzed, and the total cost function which contains transportation cost and decay value is provided. Then the cost allocation problem with capacity constraints is formulated as the restricted cost allocation game (N,c,Ω): Furthermore, in order to solve the restricted cost allocation game, the notion of the limit core is introduced as follows. The conditions of non-empty core are given. Finally, the numerical analysis illustrates the difference among restricted core, Shapley value, τ value and nucleolus. Restricted game is introduced to solve the cost allocation problem of collaboration transportation with capacity limitation, making up for the blank of relevant literature research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Electric Vehicle Routing Problem in the Present of Charging Strategy and Battery Consumption GUO Fang, YANG Jun, YANG Chao 2018, 26 (9):  106-118.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.011 Abstract ( 648 )   PDF (2263KB) ( 529 )   Save The electric vehicles powered by batteries can effectively reduce exhaust pollution and save environment harness cost, which has attracted attention and application in logistics field. The maximum driving range of an electric vehicle is limited by the capacity of the battery, and it is necessary to charge the vehicle at the charging station during driving. Secondly, the choice of a charging station will affect the distribution path of electric vehicles. The shortage of charging stations results in electric vehicles being forced to detour to the charging sites. Thirdly, the charge needed by the electric vehicle at the charging station is dynamic, which is related to the battery remaining capacity and the subsequent distribution route of the vehicle. The charge and battery status of the electric vehicle also directly affect the charging time. The electric vehicle routing problem is studied which aims to reduce the operational cost of logistics enterprises with the consideration of charging time and battery consumption cost. The problem is formulated as an integer programming model. The cost of battery loss is added to vehicle routing problem for the first time, and the distance traveled by vehicle in the state of deep discharge is taken as the optimization object. The battery charge rate used in this article is no longer a constant value, but a function related to the current state of the battery. The charging time depends not only on the battery status of the vehicle when it arrives at the charging station and the vehicle's subsequent delivery schedule, but also on the trade-off between the cost of charging time and the opportunity cost of deep discharge driving. A four-phase heuristic called MCWIGALNS is proposed to solve the problem. In the first phase, an initial routing plan is generated with a modified Clarke and Wright Saving heuristic, leading to the battery charging stations (BCSs) selection subproblem, which is then solved by the iterated greedy heuristic in the second phase. The iterated greedy heuristic algorithm first removes all the existing charging sites, and then arranges the lowest-cost charging strategy according to the existing path strategy. In the third phase, the vehicle routes resulting from the selection subproblem are determined by applying an adaptive large neighborhood search heuristic with several new neighborhood structures. Through the iterative of deleting part of the customer's point from the current path and re-putting it into the path according to the predetermined rule, a new solution is searched within the larger neighborhood scale. By exchanging the information of the charging and path strategy, the algorithm can make the feasible solution approach the optimal solution gradually in the iterative process. At the end of MCWIGALNS, the solution is further improved by a split procedure. The BCSs selection and the vehicle routing stages are alternated iteratively. Compared with the MIP solver of CPLEX on small-size instances, the MCWIGALNS can solve the problem within a shorter computing time and get reasonable solutions. Furthermore, a parameter analysis is systemically conducted for comparing two models. The one with the consideration of charge time and battery consumption cost is able to significantly reduce the total operation cost. MCWIGALNS searches the solution space more efficiently and produces better solutions than existing heuristic algorithms on the medium and large instances. To sum up, MCWIGALNS is a time-saving and stable algorithm to provide reference and help on the electric vehicle routing problem for green logistics. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Schedule Generation Scheme Based on Breadth Search of Graph LI Xiao-peng, LI Cun-bin, PAN Nan-sheng 2018, 26 (9):  119-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.012 Abstract ( 597 )   PDF (2899KB) ( 346 )   Save Heuristic algorithms are one of the most classical methods to solve resource-constrained project scheduling problems and usually used to generate initial solutions to meta-heuristic algorithms. The traditional serial (SSGS) and parallel (PSGS) are classical mechanisms for generating project scheduling schemes. In this paper, a breadth-based progress generation mechanism (BSSGS) that takes into account the location of task nodes based on graph-based breadth-first search algorithm is proposed and the effectiveness of the algorithm is verified. Firstly, the breadth search algorithm is used to define the current task set C, the candidate task set D and the stage variable g in the progress generation mechanism, and hierarchically defined each task node and the task scheduling order. Secondly, combining with the priority rules, the candidate tasks are selected and the resources are updated to generate a complete scheduling scheme. In addition, the new mechanism takes into account the position factor of the task node in the network while meeting priority rules and resource constraint, which haves significant advantages of processing to local complex network and timely scheduling key node and so on. Finally, the examples in PSPLIB are seleeted and tested the new mechanism is tested under different priority rules. The test results show that the shortest duration, the average resource utilization and the optimal scheduling scheme rate is superior to the serial and parallel progress generation mechanism under the priority rules of LPT, SPT, MTS and MIS, and the algorithm time complexity does not increase compared with the traditional mechanism, still O (J2, K). References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Time Strategy of Outpatient Registration in Multi-channel Environment ZHOU Xiong-wei, ZHANG Zhan-xiao, MA Ben-jiang, ZHOU Yan-ju 2018, 26 (9):  129-140.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.013 Abstract ( 701 )   PDF (1300KB) ( 381 )   Save Outpatient appointment scheduling is a hot and difficult problem in the field of medical operation and management. At present, many large hospitals in China open a variety of registration channels. In other words, there are multiple channels for patients to choose from, such as queueing in the outpatient hall, dialing the registration hotline or making an appointment through the Internet terminal. Therefore, when a variety of outpatient registration modes co-exist, it is particularly important to develop different waiting time strategies according to the characteristics of patients. In this paper, the waiting time is taken as a key factor affecting the behavior of patients' channel choice from a new perspective. First of all, under the assumption of the exogenous price, the channel selection model of patients is constructed based on the utility theory, which takes the patient's channel preference, time sensitivity and advance payment sensitivity into account. Then the demand distributions under different market conditions are derived from the channel selection model. On these bases, the hospital develops different waiting time strategies to achieve the purpose of maximizing profits. The results show that:(1) in all cases, the larger time sensitivity and the smaller channel preference lead to a shorter waiting time; (2) when there are two or three channels, the patient's preference for the channel will also have an impact on the results. The larger the proportion of patients who prefer a channel, the longer the waiting time for the patients who choose the channel; (3) besides, the patient's sensitivity to advance payment does not affect the optimal waiting time.This paper provides a guidance for hospitals to develop reasonable time strategies, which help to alleviate the conflict between doctors and patients and complete the rational allocation of medical resources. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Heterogeneous Multi-attribute Variable Weight Decision Making Method Considering Decision Maker's Loss Aversion YU Gao-feng, LI Deng-feng, WU Jian, YE Yin-fang 2018, 26 (9):  141-147.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.014 Abstract ( 652 )   PDF (615KB) ( 458 )   Save There are many multi-attribute decision making problems with heterogeneous information or data, which also needs to consider that the weights change with the attributes values. Aiming at the heterogeneous information multi-attribute decision making, a variable weight decision making method is proposed based on prospect theory. Firstly, the unified distance formula of heterogeneous information is built, furthermore, the relative closeness of alternatives are computed. Secondly, variable weight vector based on different types of utility functions are obtained. In the next place, the initial weight is chosen as the reference point, the variable weight vector is transformed into the decision matrix of gains or losses relative to the reference point. Furthermore, considering the decision maker's different risk attitudes toward gains and losses, the comprehensive prospect value of each alternative is calculated based on prospect theory, a ranking of alternatives is determined by the comprehensive prospect value. Finally, an illustrative example shows the effectiveness and validity of the proposed model and approach, which can provide theoretical basis and method support for solving the complex scenarios decision problem. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multiple Criteria Sorting Method in the Group Decision Making Context with Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy Values Based on CI-TOPSIS ZHU Jiang-Xiang, CAI Jian-fei, LIN Xu-xun 2018, 26 (9):  148-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.015 Abstract ( 625 )   PDF (1068KB) ( 501 )   Save Fuzzy group decision making method is widely used in various fields of politics, economy and social life, which can effectively avoid the decision-making mistakes caused by personal knowledge and experience. A multiple criteria sorting method in the group decision making context based on CI-TOPSIS is proposed for fuzzy intuition trapezoidal multiple criteria group decision making problems with incomplete information. Firstly,the trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy sets and generalized trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy geometric clustering operator are given considering the corresponding dependence attribute among group decision-making. Secondly, the TOPSIS operator based on discrete Choquet integral (CI-TOPSIS) is given, which is based on and the classification procedure of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria group decision based on CI-TOPSIS is given, which is used to determine the information set with the most credible group consensus case, and gradually guide decision-makers to give some precise classification of all programs, give full consideration to fuzzy decision-making environment, decision-making preferences and level relationship of case-level comparison information. Finally, an investment decision examples is used to verify the proposed multiple criteria sorting method and show that it may overcome information omission, and retain the full information in the decision-making process, more suitable for the decision practice under intuition fuzzy group decision making environment, and it is a kind of very effective and scientific method, which can be applied to more decision-making areas. As well as, the conclusion of this paper is of great significance for effective solving the group decision-making problem of multi-person investment scheme. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Formation Mechanism of Consumer Channel Selection Intention during Multi-channel Retailing Environment——Moderating Role of Product Categories Characteristics GUO Yan, WU Jia-bao, WANG Chong, LU Ke 2018, 26 (9):  158-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.016 Abstract ( 638 )   PDF (1557KB) ( 365 )   Save Nowadays, "touch the Internet" is becoming a key word for the Chinese brick-and-mortar retail industry, with dramatic changes of people's consumption lifestyle brought about by the Internet technology. Multi-channel retail model combined with traditional channel and Internet has become a standard mode for the retail industry. Under multi-channel retailing environment, consumer channel decision-making has changed fundamentally. The behavior that using different channels to buy becomes more and more popular. However, in the process of cross-channel buying, companies may also lose potential customers. For example, a consumer may enjoy the fitting service and personalized recommendations provided by a physical store, but end up purchasing clothes from the Internet, which seriously hurt the enthusiasm of traditional channel service personnel. Therefore, "how to guide consumers to migrate to the channel benefitting enterprises" becomes one of the important problems for multi-channel customer management. Firstly, a concept model of consumer channel selection mechanism including both search period and purchase period is established, based on the perceived value theory and trust transfer theory, specifically bringing products' search and risk characteristics into the model, channel-attributes, channel lock-in and cross-channel synergy's effects on consumer search intention and buying intention, and also, product search and risk characteristics' moderating functions to them are analyzed. Secondly, four simultaneous equations including consumer searching intention for traditional channel are listed, consumer searching intention for Internet channel, consumer buying intention for traditional channel and consumer buying intention for Internet channel are listed. Based on literature review, each variable of the equations is measured. Then data is collected by questionnaire survey. After the analysis of data's reliability and validity, parameters of consumer channel selection intention models are respectively estimated by 3SLS estimation using Stata12.0. Thirdly, consumer channel selection intentions about overall product categories and high-risk search product, low-risk search product, high-risk experience product, low-risk experience product are respectively analyzed. At last, conclusions and implications are put forward. Some interesting results have been found. Firstly, channel-attributes, channel lock-in and cross-channel synergy affect consumer search intention and buying intention significantly. Secondly, for high-risk search products (such as mobile phones and personal computers), low-risk search products (such as books and stationery), high-risk experience products (such as clothing and cosmetics) and low-risk experience products (such as toys and snacks), there are obvious differences in channel search and buying attributes, traditional channel and Internet channel lock-in and cross-channel synergy's effects on consumer channel selection intention. Channel search attributes such as information availability, search convenience, assortment and social interactive affect consumer search intention positively, but search effort affects it negatively. Channel buying attributes such as service quality, purchase convenience and enjoyment affect consumer search intention positively, but purchase effort, purchase risk affects it negatively. Traditional channel has lock-in, but Internet channel hasn't. Otherwise for low-risk search products, Internet channel also has lock-in. For high-risk products, traditional channel and Internet channel has cross-channel synergy. For high-risk search products, there is some positive cross-channel synergy from Internet search to store purchase. For high-risk experience products, there is some positive cross-channel synergy both from Internet search to store purchase and from store search to Internet purchase. For low-risk experience products, there is no significant cross-channel synergy between the Internet and the store. All of these throw lights on practical implications for enterprises' channel construction, increasing customer stickiness and managing multi-channel customer effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Targets-oriented Analytic Hierarchy Process LI Chun-hao, LI Wei, HE Juan, LI Meng-jiao, MA Hui-xin 2018, 26 (9):  170-182.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.017 Abstract ( 697 )   PDF (1496KB) ( 408 )   Save For multi-attribute hierarchies with non-specific attributes included, Saaty (1986,2006) has presented an approach of multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) to alternative evaluations/decisions, called the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which has four specific types or application formats, namely AHP in the distributive mode (shorted as DIS-AHP), AHP in the absolute mode (ABS-AHP), AHP in the ideal mode (IDE-AHP) and AHP in the supermatrix mode (SUP-AHP). While AHP has widely been applied to real-world complex decisions, it, as well as its four specific types, has also suffered from a lot of academic criticisms, such as shortness of scientific rationality for lack of the reference-point of ratio comparisons, unclearness in the weights' meaning, and incapability of keeping alternative-evaluation ranking unchanged when an alternative is deleted from or a new alternative is added to the alternative set. To solve these shortcomings of AHP, three study efforts are made. First, based on the judgment mode of swing weighting (SW), and the approach to measure commensurable satisfaction values (CSV) of attribute performances in a MADM, a prescriptive approach to measure attribute-performances' CSVs in a MADM, called the prescriptive CSV approach, is presented to support the SW judgments on non-specific attributes in a multi-attribute hierarchy. The CSV of an alternative performance xi(xi ≥ xi,1) on the ith specific attribute is given by Mξi**(αi*)(xi-xi,1)αi*/?i**+MFi(xi|πi), where M denotes the number of target alternatives for reference, Fi(xi|πi) does the cumulative probability of xi relative to the attribute-performance distribution πi of target alternatives for reference in the ith specific attribute, xi,1 does the reference point given by the decision maker, and αi*,ξi**(αi*),?i** are parameters determined by a linear programming model. Second, based on the prescriptive CSV approach, a SW-like judgement mode for weights of attributes in every hierarchy level is presented. Third, based on the SW-like judgement mode for level-attributes' weights and the multiple-attribute value theory, a new approach to alternative evaluations/decisions with a multi-attribute hierarchy, called targets-oriented AHP (ToAHP), is presented. Compared with AHP, ToAHP has the following three advantages. Firstly, ToAHP can guarantee that attribute weights given by the decision maker are of clear meanings because of the adoption of SW judgments on every level attributes. Secondly, ToAHP is constructed on the robust basis of multiple attribute value theory, rather than simply on the primitive notions as AHP is, and thus whether or not the proposition of absolute preference independence adopted in ToAHP, as is also done in AHP, is applicable can be tested. Thirdly, ToAHP takes such an one-by-one procedure to evaluate alternatives that can not only keep the alternative ranking unchanged even if the alternative set is changed, but also is intrinsically of strict mathematical basis to guarantee rationally the unchanged alternative ranking. A case study shows that, on comparable conditions of input information, ToAHP is greatly superior to SUP-AHP, which is the most believable one among the four specific formats of AHP. For the mentioned-above reasons, ToANP can be considered as a better substitute of AHP when AHP is required to solve real-world complex decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Systematic Theory of Learning Transfer: The Construction and Implication of the Theory of PPEE CHEN Guo-quan, WU Fan 2018, 26 (9):  183-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.09.018 Abstract ( 992 )   PDF (2439KB) ( 462 )   Save [Purpose] Learning is the eternal theme of human society. In order to make better use of experience and enhance learning effectiveness, it is of great significance for individuals and organizations to transfer what they have learned. Learning transfer is the process that the learner applies the past experience to solve new problems. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic theory of learning transfer, and to investigate the effects of person, problem, and environment factors on learning transfer effectiveness.[Approach] The authors take use of the method of theoretical derivation to put forward the model of learning transfer on the base of previous research.[Findings] A PPEE theory of learning transfer is established from a systematic perspective, and an argument that the factors of person, problem, and environment have direct and interactive influence on learning transfer effectiveness is brought forward. This theory discusses the mechanism of learning transfer from fives aspects below. First, based on different levels, it classifies the factors of person into the back-end basic ability, the middle-end mental process, and the front-end knowledge structure, and discusses the direct effects of these factors on learning transfer effectiveness. Then, on the classification of imagery similarity and abstract similarity, it specifies four types of the relationship between different problems, and the influence of problem similarity on learning transfer effectiveness. Third, considering the person and problem factors in the same time, it studies the interaction effect of them on learning transfer effectiveness. Forth, it divides the factor of environment into two dimensions of emergence of time and importance of space, and explores the moderating effects of environmental factors on the relationships between person or problem factors and learning transfer effectiveness. Finally, from the systematic perspective, it identifies the three-way interaction of the factors of person, problem, and environment on learning transfer. It is argued that the PPEE model is applicable not only to individuals, but to teams, organizations, regions, and even countries and the society.It summarizes the theoretical and practical contributions, and future development.[Value] This study is meaningful both for enriching the theory of learning and learning transfer and for promoting the practice of education and management. References | Related Articles | Metrics