Table of Content

28 February 2013, Volume 21 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Option Pricing under Non-Affine Stochastic Volatility Model WU Xin-yu, YANG Wen-yu, MA Chao-qun, WANG Shou-yang 2013, (1):  1-7.  Abstract ( 4324 )   PDF (976KB) ( 2587 )   Save By applying the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method, the problem of option pricing when the underlying asset follows the non-affine stochastic volatility models is considered in this paper. Firstly, by utilizing a perturbation method to the partial differential equation of the characteristic function for the underlying log-asset price, an approximate solution for the characteristic function is derived. Then, a quasi-analytical approximate formula for European options is attained by means of Fourier transform and its inverse. This formula is easy to implement and can be accurately and quickly computed by the FFT algorithm. Numerical examples show that the FFT-based option pricing method is very accurate and efficient. Finally, an empirical study of call warrants on Hang Seng index is presented. Empirical results demonstrate that the non-affine stochastic volatility option pricing model is more accurate than the classical Black-Scholes model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dependence Structure and CVaR Analysis of Continuously Rising and Falling Return YE Wu-yi, LI Lei, MIAO Bai-qi 2013, (1):  8-15.  Abstract ( 2351 )   PDF (1825KB) ( 1971 )   Save In this paper, the high-frequency continuously rising and falling return is defined from tick-by-tick return, and the marginal distributions and correlated character of above defined returns are analyzed. In order to analyze the financial risk of continuously rising (falling) return given continuously falling (rising) return, the continuously rising and falling return are paired first to obtain two joint series, and the dependence structure are analyzed by Copula method. The conditional Value at Risk is calculated from the estimated joint distribution. At last, an empirical analysis of two stocks called BAC and JPM from American Stock markets is presented, and the asymmetric property and leverage effect of rising and falling are also verified from the angle of CVaR. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pledged Loan-to-value Ratio Determination Based on Option Pricing Method ZHANG Ran, XU Shuang, WANG Feng-min 2013, (1):  16-22.  Abstract ( 3397 )   PDF (946KB) ( 2141 )   Save In this paper, the determination of pledged loan-to-value ratio under an option pricing environment is investigated. The basic idea is that the present value of pledged loan payoff is equal to a put option’s value. While the interest rate is fixed and the loan is without coupon, the interrelation of pledged ratio and some factors, such as maturity, excess return and the value volatility of pledge are analyzed. Then, the same work is extended to coupon loan and portfolio pledge circumstances. For zero coupon and fixed interest rate circumstances, a numerical example is performed. The findings are as follows: firstly, the numerical result indicate that loan-to-value ratio is a convex decreasing function of maturity. Secondly, loan-to-value ratio is a concave decreasing function of value volatility of pledge. Thirdly, loan-to-value ratio is a concave increasing function of risk premium. For floating interest rate circumstances, the function form between loan interest and risk free rate shouldbe specified. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ranking Mutual Funds Using Probability Weighting Function and Stochastic Dominance LI Hao 2013, (1):  23-30.  Abstract ( 2714 )   PDF (844KB) ( 2078 )   Save There are two methodological flaws in conventional approach on ranking mutual fund. First, the real way of the investor making decision is neglected and it is assumed that the investor has the same aptitude on gain and loss. Second, the properties of empirical sample are ignored and it is assumed that the sample of stochastic returns reaches the size of asymptotic normality population. Based on expectation utility theory, the excess returns are expanded by high order Taylor series to link the high order moments of excess returns and utility function. Using higher order moments as constraints, the empirical probability is estimated from sample and adjusted by decision weight. Based on empirical probability decision adjustment, mutual funds are ranked by Sharpe ratio expansion and stochastic dominance criterion. As a case study, 645 mutual funds are rated with this two indicators. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Comprehensive Evaluation of Generalized Carbon-productivity Index in China’s Industrial Sector Based on Frontier Analysis Methods ZHAO Guo-hao, GAO Wen-jing 2013, (1):  31-36.  Abstract ( 2425 )   PDF (671KB) ( 2101 )   Save At present, the ratio of GDP and carbon emissions is usually used as an indicator to measure carbon-productivity. However, as a input factor, the output of carbon emissions space not only includes economic performance but also includes the environment, employment and other integrated performance. Under the concept of generalized carbon productivity, using the data from the China Statistical Yearbook, the generalized carbon-productivity index from 2004-2009 of Chinese industrial sector is evaluated, based on directional distance function and data envelopment analysis method. The results indicate that, firstly the overall carbon-productivity index of Chinese industrial sector is less than 1, which means that there is a downward trend of generalized carbon productivity. Secondly, downward trend is mainly due to the low technical efficiency and scale inefficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Cost Saving Effect of Carbon Markets in China for Achieving the Reduction Targets in the “12th Five-Year Plan” CUI Lian-biao, FAN Ying, ZHU Lei, BI Qing-hua, ZHANG Yi 2013, (1):  37-46.  Abstract ( 3776 )   PDF (1875KB) ( 2085 )   Save China has proposed the carbon reduction targets for each province in its "12th Five-Year Plan". Meanwhile, several carbon emission trading pilots have begun. On this background, the cost saving effect of carbon markets in China achieving its reduction targets is studied in this paper. First, an inter-provincial emissions trading model is constructed. Then, three kinds of policy scenarios, including no carbon emission trading (NETS), the coverage of carbon market only contains six pilots (PETS), and the unified national carbon market (CETS) are designed. With simulation, some interesting results are found. First, by deducting the natural decline of carbon intensity, China’s CO2 emissions need to be reduced by about 639 million tons to achieve the reduction targets, accounting for 6.65% of the total carbon emissions. In NETS, the total abatement cost is about 15.76 billion yuan, accounting for 0.04% of GDP. Second, in PETS, the total abatement cost is about 15.07 billion yuan, which suggests that a 4.42% saving is achieved compared to that in NETS. The CO2 trading volume in PETS is about 22 million tons, accounting for 3.39% of total reduction, and the equilibrium carbon price is 70.55 yuan per ton CO2.Third, in CETS, the total abatement cost is about 12.07 billion yuan, a 23.44% reduction compared with that in NETS. The CO2 trading volume in PETS is about 121 million tons, accounting for a 18.98% share of total reduction, and the equilibrium carbon price is 38.17 yuan per CO2. Finally, the cost saving effect of the carbon market on each involved province is different. Overall, the cost saving effect of eastern and western regions is more pronounced. Moreover, some western regions can obtain positive benefits by participating in the carbon markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Scene Design and Path Forecast for Chinese Macroeconomic LIU Han, LIU Jin-quan 2013, (1):  47-56.  Abstract ( 3041 )   PDF (1540KB) ( 2307 )   Save Path forecast refers to constructing simultaneous confidence regions of multi-step forecast, which is a reasonable summary of possible path in China economy. In this paper, iteration and direct forecast method is performed to construct the path forecast of output, inflation and interest rate and Monte Carlo simulation is performed. Pseudo out of sample path forecast with scene design of Chinese macroeconomic is also conducted. The results based on Chinese data show that, forecast path built by Scheffé method has a reasonable coverage of the possible path, and it is a reasonable and effective way to forecast uncertainty of Chinese macroeconomic. The pseudo out of sample path forecast shows that a more reasonable and effective path forecast can be drawn with a reasonable scene design. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Robustness Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain with Grey Stochastic Dynamics WANG Dao-ping, ZHANG Xue-long, ZHAO Xiang-zhong 2013, (1):  57-62.  Abstract ( 2812 )   PDF (677KB) ( 2003 )   Save Both stochastic dynamics and bullwhip effect increase the robust difficulty of supply chain systems modeling, and supply chain running smoothly is the important foundation of supply chain management.Aiming at supply chain with grey stochastic dynamic characteristic, based on linear time-invariant systems, Markov algorithm is used to resolve the robustness of stochastic jump linear systems in the supply chain systems, and an effective measuring index that predicates the robustness is obtained.The numerical result verifies: the bullwhip effect magnitude of the stochastic chain is hardly related to the magnitude of either of the two modes, nor the long-term average; the performance of Markovian jump linear systems should not be simply predicted from the performance of its individual modes; uncertainty operations should degrade system performance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Order Timing based on Risk Aversion in Supply Chain XIONG Heng-qing, HUANG Yong, YANG Jian-ren 2013, (1):  63-70.  Abstract ( 2545 )   PDF (1872KB) ( 1931 )   Save Based on the newsboy model,three types of order timing are analyzed in a supply chain which consists of a risk-averse manufacturer and a risk-averse retailer. The three types of order timing are advance order, delayed order and flexible order. The influence of risk aversion on the supply chain is also examined. Different from literatures about risk neutral assumption,the results show that due to risk aversion,the retailer tends to minimize his order quantity under the mode of advance order, and the manufacturer tends to minimize her production quantity under the mode of delayed order. Further analysis shows that the retailer may cut his order quantity by at least half and the manufacturer’s profit may be reduced by at least half under certain conditions. So a Franchisee fee contract is employed to coordinate. It is suggested that enhancing business confidence and eliminating adverse influence play a very important role during economic depression. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Product Quality Control Contract Model in a Two-Echelon Supply Chain ZHU Li-long, YU Tao, XIA Tong-shui 2013, (1):  71-79.  Abstract ( 2839 )   PDF (1551KB) ( 2190 )   Save Based on game theory and principal-agent theory, how to design quality control contract in the two-echelon supply chain is studied. The producer’s and buyer’s expected profits function model is set up, in which the producer makes investment level decision in production process and decides the product quality prevention level, and the buyer makes quality evaluation decision and decides the product quality inspection level. It the producer has the moral hazard of reducing product quality investment level and it reduces the investment, the buyer will pay for the information rents in order to incentive producer improve investment level. The buyer may have the moral hazard of exaggerating product quality defects. The optimization theory is used to solve the producer's optimal investment level, product quality prevention level, price rebates and the buyer’s optimal quality inspection level and apportionment ratio of external failure cost. Results of a numerical example show that when producer improve the investment level, the product quality prevention level will increase and the buyer’s quality inspection level will decrease. With the improvement of the buyer’s product quality inspection level, the producer’s price rebates will firstly increase and then decrease, the external failure cost undertook by the producer will decrease, and expected profits will increase, the buyer’s expected profits will decrease, and the supply chain’s joint expected profits are inverse U-shaped. The maximum expected profits and contract parameters are solved and the results, demonstrate that the quality control contract model is effective. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Contracts of Two Production Modes with Information Updating JIAN Hui-yun, WANG Guo-shun, XU Min-li 2013, (1):  80-89.  Abstract ( 2307 )   PDF (1444KB) ( 2105 )   Save To short-life-cycle product with long lead time of production and short selling season, such as fashion and some electronic product, retailer is admitted to change its order after the demand information is updated in quick response strategy (QR). The manufacturer in the supply chain has two production modes. One is slow response mode with long lead time and low cost, and another is fast response mode with quick response and high cost. The research of QR combined with coordination contracts is one of the hot topics of supply chain management of short-life-cycle products. In the two-stage supply chain where manufacturer dominated, price discount contract is used to induce the retailers placing the order in advance. To the retailer, the discounted price can increase its profits in the two-stage ordering mode. But the results show that price discount contract can not coordinate the supply chain with two-stage ordering. A joint contract of price discount and buy-back is designed to coordinate the supply chain. The conditions of discounted price and buy-back price are studied. The numeric results show that the manufacturer’s profits of joint contract may be worse than that of price discount contract when the cost increase fast in the quick response mode. By redesigning the price discount and buy-back price, the contract based on Nash negotiation model can not only get optimal benefit of the whole supply chain, but also improve the benefit of the retailer and the manufacturer greatly compared with price discount contract. The price discount contract and the joint contract of price discount and buy-back are applied to a three-stage supply chain. The necessary condition that two-stage ordering policy can be carried out in a three-stage supply chain is that both the distributor and the retailer set the same optimal order in advance. The numeric results show that the manufacturer offers very little discount or no discount to the distributor under price discount contract. Compared with the two-stage supply chain, the efficiency of discount contract used in the three-stage supply chain is lower. The joint contract of price discount and buy-back can also coordinate the three-stage supply chain. This joint contract meets the condition of incentive compatibility constraint for both the distributor and the retailer. The joint contract studied in this paper can applied to the supply chain of short-life-cycle product with two production and ordering modes in practice. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Strategy Analysis on Differential Pricing in Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Remanufacturing YAN Rong-fang, CHENG Yong-hong, WANG Cai-xia 2013, (1):  90-97.  Abstract ( 3201 )   PDF (1338KB) ( 1994 )   Save Under the condition of centralized and decentralized decision-making, the existence of the optimal wholesale and retail price separately from the differential pricing principle between new and remanufacture products in the closed-loop supply chain which consists of one manufacturer, one retailer and consumers is discussed, the optimal wholesale and retail price are obtained and some optimal differential pricing policies are given. At the same time, the effect of recovering price or subsiding price to optimal selling price and wholesaling price is illustrated by a numerical example. Finally, some strategies and suggestions on organizations of logistic supply chain are proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Cross Selecting and Equilibrium Analysis in 2-2 Substitutable Product Supply Chain Under Hybrid Distribution Channels ZHANG Ya-qi, CHEN Ju-hong, GUO Fu-li, LI Sai-sai 2013, (1):  98-104.  Abstract ( 2363 )   PDF (703KB) ( 2006 )   Save The impacting of product substitution degree on supply chain cross selecting under different wholesale price is studied. Considering a supply chain system with two manufacturers and two retailers, distribution channel selecting and equilibrium outcome under the manufacturer sets a common wholesale price and different wholesale price for the two retailers are analyzed respectively. The results show that cross selecting will happen when the manufacturer sets a common wholesale price for the two retailers and substitutability is relatively low. The manufacturer prefers an exclusive arrangement with a retailer and cross selecting will not happen when the two products are highly substitutable. When wholesale price discrimination is allowed and the substitutability is relatively low, bi-directional cross selecting will happen. The decentralized manufacturer never uses the integrated retailer exclusively at equilibrium. Finally, the research results are verified by a case. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Alternative Distributorsof Coordinated Replenishment Model Based on CPFR JI Shou-feng, YUE Mei-si, TANG Jin-huan, ZHANG Chuan 2013, (1):  105-110.  Abstract ( 2589 )   PDF (1043KB) ( 1860 )   Save In this paper, a method that the distributors can be alternative in coordinated replenishment model is proposed based on CPFR, which make a great progress over the traditional replenishment strategy considering the situation that the distributors are chosen. The coordinated replenishment model is constructed based on the relationship between the re-order quantities of retailers and distributors, which take the constraint of the effect of CPFR on the multi-stage supply chain inventory decision and distributor alternative on the ordering probability into account. Then, the effect of distributors alternative in the supply chain is analyzed using the Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS). At last, numerical simulation is provided by the REPAST software, which shows the method is valid. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Multi-suppliers Horizontally Synchronization Based on Space-constrained Construction Supply Chain LI Yi-peng, MA Shi-hua 2013, (1):  111-117.  Abstract ( 2660 )   PDF (1566KB) ( 2061 )   Save A construction supply chain consisting of multi-suppliers and one main contractor is considered, in the context of constrained building material space. How multi uncertain suppliers horizontally synchronized supply to reduce the main contractor’s expected total cost is identified. Through information sharing among supply chain, multi-suppliers horizontally synchronized basic model is presented. Then through capacity outsourcing or expediting, multi-suppliers horizontally synchronized advanced model is presented. Finally, the whole proceed of building material supply is simulated by Monte Carlo methodology. The result shows: compared with traditional supply model, these two synchronized model can decrease the main contractor’s expected total cost effectively. The basic model’s cost is minimum, and the advanced model can reduce the cost of construction duration delay. Pareto improvement of construction supply chain is achieved. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Cooperative Wills Screening of Service Providers Based on Installment WANG Lu-ling, WANG Guo-feng, LAI Ming-yong, ZHOU Yang 2013, (1):  118-124.  Abstract ( 2452 )   PDF (836KB) ( 1997 )   Save The asymmetry information hinders the healthy development of service outsourcing. Choosing the appropriate service providers, and the effective supervision and incentives on the specific human capital is the precondition for successful outsourcing. The installment is introduced into the contract design of service outsourcing, a screening model is constructed for the real cooperative wills of service providers under the asymmetric information and the payment mechanisms are designed for the effective separation of different types of service providers. A case is used to validate the scientificity and applicability of the model,which sets a guide for the service demanders to choose the appropriate service providers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Multi-types Vehicle Routing Problem and Its Quantum Genetic Algorithm GE Xian-long, XU Mao-zeng, WANG Wei-xin 2013, (1):  125-133.  Abstract ( 3112 )   PDF (1398KB) ( 1918 )   Save Based on analysis of using the priority principle in the problem of multi-vehicle scheduling in the available literature, the using cost of vehicle is divided into consumption costs and fixed costs. A mathematical model is established for the target of minimum total distribution cost. Then Quantum genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model, the chromosome structure is designed by quantum bits, and the crossover and mutation operators are improved in the genetic algorithm to avoid the destruction of good genes. The rapid searching mechanism and best preservation mechanism are designed in the evolution of the quantum rotation gate to accelerate the convergence speed. Finally, the model and algorithm are analyzed and tested by examples. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Analysis of the Float in Project Network with Time-Constrained LI Xing-mei, ZHANG Qian, QI Jian-xun, ZHAO Xin-chao 2013, (1):  134-141.  Abstract ( 2517 )   PDF (749KB) ( 1952 )   Save In the traditional model of network planning, when all the immediate predecessor activities come to an end, the current activity can start in no time. But in the real practice, a large quantity of activities will be restricted by the start time, seldom activities can start at any time under the satisfaction of meeting the precedence relations constraints. Network with time-constrained is a very good description of these issues. The main objective of this paper is to study how float characteristics of different activities in the network change under the time-constrained. Based on the previous work, the time parameter of activities in network can be changed from traditional algorithm into time parameter with time-constrained. Finally, the differences between traditional network and network with time-constrained are analyzed. The analysis results reflect the practical value of the time-constrained model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Traffic Flow Concealment Entropy Measure and Flow Distribution Model of the Uncertain Military Traffic Net under Follow Constrain Condition ZHOU Wei, HE Jian-min 2013, (1):  142-148.  Abstract ( 3398 )   PDF (1109KB) ( 1715 )   Save In this paper, the traffic flow concealment measure and flow distribution model of the uncertain military trffic net under the condition of flow constrain are proposed. The new measure formula could resolve the problem of the old measure method. Then, six natures of the military traffic network are analyzed, i.e. the un-negative property, the extend property, symmetry property, the directionality of the received and sent road, the convertibility of the military traffic net and the probability of circulation flow. By combining the above new concealment measure formula and six natures of the military traffic network, the flow distribution model of the uncertain militray traffic net under the condition of folw constrain is proposed. At last, a numerical example is used to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the new concealment measure approach and flow distrbution model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Remanufacturing Entry Decision Based on WTP Differentiation GUO Jun-hua, LI Bang-yi, NI Ming 2013, (1):  149-156.  Abstract ( 2463 )   PDF (1776KB) ( 1778 )   Save There are differences in the consumer’s willingness-to-pay for remanufactured products and new products. On this basis, the boundary conditions of the OEM remanufacturing decision-making in the competitive environment and no competitive environment are studied. The results show that OEM will obtain more profit in entering remanufacturing when boundary conditions are satisfied, because the remanufactured products’ profitability can make up the canalization effect of remanufactured products to new products. Meanwhile, through numerical simulation, the effects of various parameters on the OEM’s and competitor’s productivity and profit are analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Layout of Large-scale Water Engineering Migration School YANG Jian-yan 2013, (1):  157-164.  Abstract ( 2245 )   PDF (959KB) ( 2268 )   Save In this paper, the problem in layout of large-scale water engineering migration school is mainly analyzed based on some large-scale water engineering projects such as Yellow river Xiaolangdi Project, Yangtze River Three Gorges Project, South-to-North Water Diversion project. Then, migration education resource plan's categories and principle are proposed. At last, a layout of large-scale water engineering migration school decision model is established. An example is used to show how to get the decision. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Application of ANP-Fuzzy Method in the Performance Evaluation of Electric Power Enterprise YU Shun-kun, ZHOU Li-sha, LI Chen 2013, (1):  165-173.  Abstract ( 2747 )   PDF (1689KB) ( 1908 )   Save Performance evaluation is an effective means for enterprises to enhance their performance. However, performance evaluation has no obvious effect on performance improvement of electric power enterprises in China. As power industry is infrastructure industry of national economy development, the performance evaluation has become a hot issue in China. Regarding the large scale and complex function of electric power enterprises, there are complex mutual relationships among the performance indicators. The performance indicators are mostly qualitative indicators, so it is hard to evaluate them accurately. The traditional performance evaluation methods do not take these factors into account, which causes the results of performance evaluation cannot reflect the true performance of the employees. The performance evaluation is prone to become a mere formality. Regarding the defects of traditional performance evaluation methods, the comprehensive evaluation method is put forward in this paper based on ANP-Fuzzy. Firstly, the indicator system and the criteria of performance evaluation are established to provide a standardized evaluation frame for the employees. Secondly, the ANP structure which can reflect the mutual relationships among indicators is used to determine the weights of the interactive indicators. On this basis, an empirical research is conducted based on the actual situation of a city-level power supply enterprises. The results show that it is reasonable and feasible to apply the ANP-Fuzzy method to the performance evaluation of electric power enterprises. This method can effectively distinguish the differences of performance between the aspects of an employee and the differences of performance between different employees. This method can help the employees to find the performance improvement space of their own, and obviously improve the employees’ performance. Additionally, by using the software of Super Decisions and Matlab, this method can be conveniently put into application. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Combination Evaluation Method Based on Maximizing Deviations LI Zhu-rui, MA Xi-jun, PENG Zhang-lin 2013, (1):  174-179.  Abstract ( 2555 )   PDF (651KB) ( 1953 )   Save In this paper, a combination evaluation method based on maximum deviations is proposed.Firstly,this method combinates the evaluation values of each single evaluation method by maximizing the deviation of the evaluation values among various single evaluation methods.Then the combined evaluation results are sorted and measured by the combined errors of squared sum. Finally, through the case analysis, it indicates that the combined evaluation method has smaller combined error, and is more effective. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Reputation Evolution in Perishable Product Supply Chain with Moral Hazard ZHANG Jian-jun, ZHAO Jin, ZHANG Hong-jian, ZHANG Yan-xia 2013, (1):  180-184.  Abstract ( 2625 )   PDF (849KB) ( 1972 )   Save It is common to encounter the coordination issue of perishable product supply chain in the background of single-period newsvendor problem.However, the coordination and games between members of supply chain are much more constant actually.Regarding this fact, the background of the coordination of perishable product supply chain is extended to multi-period coordination.Formation and evolution of manufacturer’s reputation in single-moral risk are investigated and the evolution mechanism of manufacturer’s reputation in perishable product supply chain is discovered.Finally, based on the numerical analysis of the conclusion, the influences of the main parameters on the conclusion are analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Bidding Equilibrium of VC Exit Discriminatory Auction System Based on Evolutionary Game ZHENG Jun-jun, JIANG Wei-liang, ZOU Zu-xu, HAN Xiao 2013, (1):  185-192.  Abstract ( 2398 )   PDF (1580KB) ( 1855 )   Save Taking the VCS exit equity discriminatory auction as research background, evolutionary game theory is emploged to study the bidding strategies of heterogeneous companies, and the general evolution rules of bidding strategies under different market supply and demand conditions are found. The result shows that the final bidding evolution relates to not only the relative payment of bidders, but also supply and demand conditions in the VC exit market and system’s initial states. It is concluded that setting a lowest bidding limit, hiding the market supply and signal transmission can effectively promote companies to choose high-priced bidding strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics