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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2005, Vol. ›› Issue (1): 19-23.

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Estimation of Market Timing of Funds-A new Model and The Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations

SHEN Tuan-ying1, QIU Chang-rong1, LIU Hua-fang2   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China;
    2. School of Business Administration, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
  • Received:2004-07-12 Revised:2004-12-29 Online:2005-02-28 Published:2012-03-07

Abstract: There is a bias in which market timing ability of funds is negative among all models estimating the performance of funds.This paper constructs the skewness adjustment conditional quadratic model based on the quadratic regression model of Treynor and Mazuy.By the empirical analysis of Chinese security investment funds,we prove that this model is more effective and erases the bias of negative market timing ability.Because there are series relations among the excess returns of security-investment funds,they are inefficient estimators using OLS or GLS for the time series of the excess returns of security investment funds.The paper evaluates the performance of Chinese funds using seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE),and analyzes comparatively the estimators between OLS (GLS) and SURE.The result is the conclusion of SURE is much more efficient than that of OLS (GLS).

Key words: security-investment funds, market timing ability, skewness, SURE

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