基于信息披露文本的上市公司信用风险预警——来自中文年报管理层讨论与分析的经验证据

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2263

Abstract

Abstract: With the economic globalization, the international economic situation becomes more and more complex, and Chinese listed companies will face greater challenges. The unstable economic situation such as trade friction and financial market volatility will increase the credit risk of listed companies. The establishment of credit risk early warning system is conducive to the operators to find the company’s financial problems in time, and make response and prevention. A large number of text documents disclosed by listed companies can extract certain effective information, which can be used as an effective supplement to the traditional quantitative financial indicators. As an important part of the annual report, “Management Discussion and Analysis (MD & A)” in the enterprise annual report includes the evaluation of the company’s historical operation by the company’s managers and the prospect of the future market development. Therefore, deep mining the valuable text information contained in MD&A can effectively supplement the company’s financial index information and predict the company’s credit risk.

Key words: management discussion and analysis; text disclosure quality; text mining; credit risk warning

CLC Number:

F82/84

LI Cheng-gang, JIA Hong-ye, ZHAO Guang-hui, FU Hong. Credit Risk Warning of Listed Companies Based on Information Disclosure Text:Empirical Evidence from Management Discussion and Analysis of the Chinese Annual Report[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(2): 18-29.

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Credit Risk Warning of Listed Companies Based on Information Disclosure Text:Empirical Evidence from Management Discussion and Analysis of the Chinese Annual Report

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