人工智能、居民消费与经济奇点

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0625

Abstract

Abstract:

Common prosperity requires long-term and stable economic development to support， and artificial intelligence can create more wealth on the basis of the original means of production， and promote the economy to reach a singularity state to consolidate the material foundation for common prosperity. However， artificial intelligence will also lead to social problems such as unemployment and income inequality， and even impact residents' consumption and affect the steady economic growth. Therefore， it is necessary to explore the complex effects between artificial intelligence and household consumption and the economic singularity， as well as the moderating effect of redistribution policies on the realization of the economic singularity. In this paper， a complex nonlinear production function containing the development degree of artificial intelligence is used to construct a dynamic general equilibrium model containing artificial intelligence and redistribution policy， and numerical simulation experiments are used to study the impact of artificial intelligence on economic singularity and the effect of redistribution policy. The research results show that：（1） Without artificial intelligence， as my country's capital accumulation leads to a decline in the efficiency of the marginal product of capital， and the aging of the workforce reduces the number of laborers， economic development will fall into a continuous downturn， and it will be difficult to reach an economic singularity. （2） Artificial intelligence will enable my country's economy to reach a singularity state before 2070， and the earlier the artificial intelligence technology matures， the earlier the time node will reach the economic singularity. （3） Artificial intelligence promotes the early realization of the economic singularity by improving the intelligence and automation in the production process and the consumption of residents. （4） The redistribution policy will delay the arrival of the economic singularity， and for every 4% increase in the new tax rate， the investment rate will drop by about 2%， but the earlier the AI technology matures， the stronger the hedge against this adverse impact. In view of this， my country should vigorously develop "new infrastructure" to comprehensively promote the progress of artificial intelligence technology， optimize the redistribution policy system， increase the effective consumption of residents， and enhance the government’s comprehensive governance capabilities to achieve the goal of common prosperity.

Key words: artificial intelligence, housing consumption, economic singularity, common prosperity, redistributive policy

CLC Number:

F015

Wei Ge, Han Xiao. Artificial Intelligence, Household Consumption and Economic Singularity: Based on the Perspective of Optimizing Redistribution Policy[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(3): 93-106.

Figures/Tables 9

情境设定

参数校准

Q1: 劳动生产率额外提高12%

$α ¯$ =0.9

$f ¯$ =0.07

$ζ$ =0.045

$η$ =0.1

h

=80，

μ

=65

Q2: 劳动生产率额外提高18%

h

=60，

μ

=38

Q3: 劳动生产率额外提高25%

h

=50，

μ

=21

年份	人工智能发展程度 $α t$				全要素生产率 $A t$
年份	B	Q1	Q2	Q3	B	Q1	Q2	Q3
2020	0.5100	0.5224	0.5390	0.5537	1.0994	1.1053	1.1085	1.1216
2025	0.5100	0.5253	0.5457	0.5632	1.2510	1.2883	1.3009	1.3525
2030	0.5100	0.5290	0.5537	0.5744	1.4026	1.5021	1.5338	1.6576
2035	0.5100	0.5335	0.5632	0.5875	1.5542	1.7522	1.8209	2.0730
2040	0.5100	0.5390	0.5744	0.6024	1.7058	2.0459	2.1843	2.6520
2045	0.5100	0.5457	0.5875	0.6192	1.8574	2.3924	2.6583	3.4702
2050	0.5100	0.5537	0.6024	0.6377	2.0090	2.8041	3.2965	4.6325
2055	0.5100	0.5632	0.6192	0.6577	2.1606	3.2992	4.1785	6.2830
2060	0.5100	0.5744	0.6377	0.6788	2.3122	3.9046	5.4196	8.6212
2065	0.5100	0.5875	0.6577	0.7006	2.4638	4.6622	7.1803	11.9242
2070	0.5100	0.6024	0.6788	0.7225	2.6154	5.6384	9.6821	16.5790
2075	0.5100	0.6192	0.7006	0.7440	2.7670	6.9363	13.2300	23.1278

再分配政策	Q1	Q2	Q3
$τ 1 = 0.04$	2069	2059	2053
$τ 1 = 0.08$	2070	2060	2053
$τ 1 = 0.12$	2070	2060	2054
$τ 1 = 0.16$	2071	2061	2054
$τ 1 = 0.20$	2072	2062	2055
$τ 1 = 0.24$	2073	2062	2056
$τ 1 = 0.28$	2074	2063	2056

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	GDP平均增速（%）	消费率平均值（%）	储蓄率平均值（%）
模拟值	6.02	67.59	32.40
实际值	6.53	55.28	36.48

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Artificial Intelligence, Household Consumption and Economic Singularity: Based on the Perspective of Optimizing Redistribution Policy

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