基于项目网络支配和扩散关系的研发项目组合选择

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.04.019

Abstract

Abstract: To gain competitive leverage, firms must seek to continuously invest in a large number of research and development (R&D) projects. The R&D project portfolio contains many projects and various interdependencies. However, existing methods of portfolio selection usually don't take these interdependencies into account. Using the complex network theory, the PageRank and K-shell algorithm, a new project priority ranking method (PPRM) is propozed in this paper. The following key problems in the R&D project portfolio selection need to be solved:1) how to determine multiple criterions for prioritizing projects in the portfolio; 2) how to analyze the interaction relationship among projects via the complex network theory; 3) how to measure projects' priority by considering both domination and diffusion relationship via the K-shell and PageRank algorithm.
Hence, the interaction and interdependency among projects in the R&D project portfolio selection from the perspective of domination and technical diffusion relationship are focused on. First, a multi-attribute evaluation criterion is established to analyze the domination and diffusion relationship among projects. Then, the domination and diffusion networks of the R&D portfolio are built. Further, using the design structure matrix (DSM) and K-shell method, the network node's influencing model of the project is built via the domination network and the probability model of multiple diffusion propagation is also built via the diffusion network. Considering the influence and diffusion relationship of each project, the model of project's priority ranking is present based on the improved PageRank algorithm. Finally, an industrial example is provided to illustrate the proposed models. The results yield and reinforce several managerial insights, including:1) both the relationship of domination and technical diffusion among projects have a obvious influence on the project priority ranking; 2) the priority of each project may be improved by enhancing its domination or diffusion ability, therefore, the project manager should identify which reasons (i.e., diffusion or dominance relationship) will lead to the change of the project priority and understand the change trend, then realize a trade-off analysis of project portfolio selections.

Key words: project portfolios selection, complex network, Design Structure Matrix (DSM), PageRank algorithm, K-shell algorithm

CLC Number:

C393

ZOU Xing-qi, YANG Qing. R&D Project Portfolio Selection Based on Domination and Diffusion Relationship in the Project Network[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(4): 198-209.

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R&D Project Portfolio Selection Based on Domination and Diffusion Relationship in the Project Network

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