Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 46-59.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0324
• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
LIU Chao1,2, GUO Ya-dong1
Received:
2020-03-02
Revised:
2020-05-18
Online:
2022-10-20
Published:
2022-10-12
Contact:
刘超
E-mail:liuchao@bjut.edu.cn
CLC Number:
LIU Chao, GUO Ya-dong. Systemic Financial Risk Spillover and Its Topology Analysis of Sector Indexes in China under a Multi-Scale View[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(10): 46-59.
[1] 张晓朴. 系统性金融风险研究:演进、成因与监管[J]. 国际金融研究, 2010, 25(7): 58-67.Zhang Xiaopu. A study on systemic financial risk: Evolution, causes and supervision[J]. Studies of International Finance,2010,25(7):58-67. [2] 姜永宏,穆金旗,聂禾.国际石油价格与中国行业股市的风险溢出效应研究[J].经济与管理评论,2019,35(5):99-112.Jiang Yonghong, Mu Jinqi, Nie He. A study of the risk spillover effect of the international oil price and Chinese industry stock market[J]. Review of Economy and Management,2019,35(5):99-112. [3] 佟家栋,谢丹阳,包群,等.“逆全球化”与实体经济转型升级笔谈[J]. 中国工业经济, 2017, 34(6): 5-59.Tong Jiadong, Xie Danyang, Bao Qun, et al. The talks on paper of the deglobalization and transformation and upgrading of real economy[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2017, 34(6): 5-59. [4] 何青,钱宗鑫,刘伟. 中国系统性金融风险的度量—基于实体经济的视角[J]. 金融研究, 2018, 454(4): 53-70.He Qing, Qian Zongxin, Liu Wei. Systemic financial risk and real economic activity in China[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2018, 454(4): 53-70. [5] Nazlioglu S, Soytas U, Gupta R. Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2015, 82(7): 278-288. [6] Hamao Y, Masulis R W, Ng V. Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets[J]. The review of financial studies, 1990, 3(2): 281-307. [7] Liu Xueyong, An Haizhong, Li Huajiao, et al. Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2017, 479(15): 265-278. [8] Reboredo J C, Ugolini A. Systemic Risk in European Sovereign Debt Markets: A CoVaR-Copula Approach[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 51: 214-244. [9] Zhang Xiwen, Jiang Hui. Application of Copula function in financial risk analysis[J]. Computers & Electrical Engineering, 2019,77: 376-388. [10] Yu J, Meyer R. Multivariate stochastic volatility models: Bayesian estimation and model comparison[J]. Econometric Reviews, 2006, 25(2-3): 361-384. [11] Balcilar M, Ozdemir Z A. The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, 534(22): 1-14. [12] 熊正德,韩丽君.金融市场间波动溢出效应研究—GC-MSV模型及其应用[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(2): 32-41.Xiong Zhengde, Han Lijun. An empirical study on the volatility spillover effect between financial markets—GC-MSV model and application[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013,21(2): 32-41. [13] 何德旭, 苗文龙. 国际金融市场波动溢出效应与动态相关性[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(11):23-40.He Dexu, Miao Wenlong. Spillovers effect and dynamic correlation among international financial market[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2015,32(11):23-40. [14] 陈暮紫,赵婷婷,刘承林,等.跨部门金融机构系统重要性和共振效应的动态演化研究——基于中国A股市场的实证[J].中国管理科学,2020,28(4):36-47.Chen Muzi, Zhao Tingting, Liu Chenglin, et al. Dynamic evolution study on inter-sector financial institution systemic importance and resonance effects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2020,28(4):36-47. [15] 胡毅,李瑞,张希,等.基于分位数回归的系统性风险和经济增长关系研究[J].管理评论,2019,31(12):3-14.Hu Yi, Li Rui, Zhang Xi, et al. A study of the relationship between systemic risk and economic growth based on quantile regression[J]. Management Review,2019,31(12):3-14. [16] 刘超,李元睿,姜超,等.中国证券公司系统性风险测度及演化特征研究—来自20家上市证券公司的数据[J].中国管理科学,2019,27(5):11-22.Liu Chao, Li Yuanrui, Jiangchao, et al. Research on systematic risk measurement and evolution characteristics of China’s securities companies——empirical data from 20 listed securities companies[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2019,27(5):11-22. [17] Diebold F X, Yilmaz K. Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28(1): 57-66. [18] Diebold F X, Yilmaz K. On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2014, 182(1): 119-134. [19] Kang W, Ratti R A. Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China[J]. Economics of Transition, 2015, 23(4): 657-676. [20] Roy R P, Roy S S. Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market[J]. Economic Modelling, 2017, 67: 368-380. [21] Tiwari A K, Cunado J, Gupta R, et al. Volatility spillovers across global asset classes: Evidence from time and frequency domains[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2018, 70(4): 194-202 [22] 尹力博,吴优.离岸人民币区域影响力研究—基于信息溢出的视角[J]. 金融研究,2017, 40(8): 1-18.Yin Libo, Wu You. The research of offshore RMB’s regional influence: An perspective based on information spillover[J]. Journal of Financial Research,2017,40(8): 1-18. [23] 王奇珍,王玉东.国际油价、美国经济不确定性和中国股市的波动溢出效应研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(11): 50-61.Wang Qizhen, Wang Yudong. International transmission of volatility among crude oil price, economic uncertainty and the stock market[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2018,26(11):50-61. [24] Wang Xunxiao, Wu Chongfeng. Asymmetric volatility spillovers between crude oil and international financial markets[J]. Energy Economics, 2018, 74(6): 592-604. [25] 刘超,徐君慧,周文文.中国金融市场的风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和复杂网络方法[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(4): 831-842.Liu Chao, Xu Junhui, Zhou Wenwen. Study on risk spillover effect of financial markets in China based on methods of spillover index and complex network[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2017,37(4):831-842. [26] 马旭平,王军,孙晓蕾,等.主权风险溢出网络动态特征研究:以“一带一路”国家为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2019,39(6):1363-1372.Ma Xuping, Wang Jun, Sun Xiaolei, et al. A study on the dynamics of sovereign risk spillover networks:Evidence from the countries along the Belt and Road[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2019,39(6):1363-1372. [27] 杨子晖,周颖刚. 全球系统性金融风险溢出与外部冲击[J]. 中国社会科学, 2018, 12: 69-90.Yang Zihui, Zhou Yinggang. Global systemic financial risk spillovers and their external shocks[J]. Social Sciences in China,2018,12:69-90. [28] 杨子晖,陈雨恬,张平淼.重大突发公共事件下的宏观经济冲击、金融风险传导与治理应对[J].管理世界,2020,36(5):13-35+7.Yang Zihui, Chen Yutian, Zhang Pingmiao. Macroeconomic shock, financial risk transmission and governance response to major public emergencies[J]. Journal of Management World,2020,36(5):13-35+7. [29] Baruník J, Kocˇenda E, Vácha L. Gold, oil, and stocks: Dynamic correlations[J]. International Review of Economics & Finance, 2016, 42(2): 186-201. [30] Madaleno M, Pinho C. Internastional stock market indices comovements: A new look[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2012, 17(1): 89-102. [31] Jena S K, Tiwari A K, Roubaud D. Comovements of gold futures markets and the spot market: A wavelet analysis[J]. Finance Research Letters, 2018, 24(1): 19-24. [32] Tweneboah G, Alagidede P. Interdependence structure of precious metal prices: A multi-scale perspective[J]. Resources Policy, 2018, 59: 427-434. [33] 熊正德,文慧,熊一鹏. 我国外汇市场与股票市场间波动溢出效应实证研究—基于小波多分辨的多元BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型分析[J]. 中国管理科学,2015, 23(4): 30-38.Xiong Zhengde, Wen Hui, Xiong Yipeng. Empirical research on spillover effect between foreign exchange market and stock market by wavelet multi-resolution analysis and multivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,23(4): 30-38. [34] 朱鹏飞,唐勇,洪小梅,等.P2P网贷利率存在波动溢出吗?—基于时-频域溢出指数的实证研究[J].中国管理科学, 2021,29(4): 82-92.Zhu Pengfei, Tangyong, Hong Xiaomei, et al. Does the p2p lending interest rate have volatility spillovers?—an empirical study based on time-frequency domains spillover index[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science,2021,29(4): 82-92. [35] Dajcman S. Interdependence between some major European stock markets-A wavelet lead/lag analysis[J]. Prague economic papers, 2013, 22(1): 28-49. [36] 刘向丽,王旭朋. 基于小波分析的股指期货高频预测研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35(6): 1425-1432.Liu Xiangli, Wang Xupeng. Research on high frequency data forecasting of stock index futures market based on wavelet analysis[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2015, 35(6): 1425-1432. [37] 黄文彬,严佳佳,邓婷婷. 欧美股票市场对我国股票市场的传染效应研究—基于次贷与欧债危机背景[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2017, 37(8): 1982-1991.Huang Wenbin, Yan Jiajia, Deng Tingting. An empirical study of contagion effect from American and European stock markets to Chinese stock markets based on the subprime crisis and the European[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2017,37(8):1982-1991. [38] 张于喆,周振,石昱馨. 军民融合产业发展形势和政策建议[J]. 宏观经济管理, 2018, 34(9): 37-42+54.Zhang Yuzhe, Zhou Zhen, Shi Yuxin. The situation of the development of the integration of the military and civilian sectors and policy suggestions[J]. Macroeconomic Management, 2018,34(9):37-42+54. |
[1] | JIANG Chong-hui, LIU Lin. The Effectiveness of Momentum Factor Tracking Strategy: Evidence from China Stock Market [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(5): 86-97. |
[2] | ZHU Li, LIU Xiang-li, YANG Xiao-guang. Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Price Dynamic Relationship of Stock Index Futures-spot Market? [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(4): 52-62. |
[3] | XIANG Cheng, YANG Jun. Who Gambles in the Market? A Study on Mutual Funds’ Preferences for Lottery-like Stocks [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(11): 224-236. |
[4] | SHEN Genxiang, ZHANG Jingze. Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model with GARCH Error Terms and It’s Applications [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(10): 1-11. |
[5] | CHEN Wen-bo, CHEN Lang-nan. Reactions of Stock Investors to Earnings Announcements——A Perspective from Gambling Preference [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(9): 1-11. |
[6] | HUANG Yi-rong, BAI Yu-xuan. Is It “Intentional Herding” or “Spurious Herding”? The Influence of Network Contagion Degree on the Pricing Efficiency of Capital Market [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(9): 12-24. |
[7] | HE Chao-lin, TU Bei, WANG Peng. The Effectiveness of Dynamic Mean-variance Portfolio: An Aspect of Time-varying Risk Tolerance [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(1): 1-11. |
[8] | JIN Xiu, CHEN Na, WANG Jia. Empirical Study on Cross-industry Asset Allocation Model under the Perspective of Flight-to-quality [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(11): 12-22. |
[9] | CHEN Qi-an, ZHANG Hui, CHEN Shu-yu. Does Stock Index Futures Trading Increase the Stock Market Volatility in China?——Theoretical and Empirical Research Based on Investor Structure [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(4): 1-13. |
[10] | OUYANG Hong-bing, HUANG Kang, YAN Hong-ju. Prediction of Financial Time Series Based on LSTM Neural Network [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(4): 27-35. |
[11] | ZHAO Hua, XIAO Jia-wen. Volatility Forecasting in the Presence of Microstructure Noise and Measurement Error [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(4): 48-60. |
[12] | LU Wan-bo, HUANG Guang-lin, Kris Boudt. Stock Market Rise-Fall Forecast and Quantitative Investment Strategy: Based on Time Varying MCA [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(2): 1-12. |
[13] | FU Qiang, HU Wen-xiu, ZHANG Wei-guo. Managerial Equity Incentives and the Pricing of Firms’ Future Earnings——Empirical Evidence from Chinese Capital Markets [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(1): 19-31. |
[14] | YANG Ji-ping, SHI Chen-xiao, Daniel CHIEW, Judy QIU, Sirimon TREEPONGKARUNA. A Fund Ratings Approach Based on EU-E Decision Model and Its Application in China's Fund Ratings [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(12): 1-10. |
[15] | YIN Hai-yuan, Zhu Xu. Investor Heterogeneous Beliefs, Expect Evolution and Stock Market Liquidity [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(10): 12-21. |
Viewed | ||||||
Full text |
|
|||||
Abstract |
|
|||||
|