Table of Content

28 June 2006, Volume 14 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Research of Cross-Correlation of High-Frequency Data in Stock Markets with Wavelet Analysis HOU Shou-guo, ZHANG Shi-ying 2006, (3):  1-6.  Abstract ( 2067 )   PDF (1841KB) ( 2328 )   Save Cross-correlation of high-frequency time series between Shanghai Stock Market and Shenzhen Stock Market is studied.In order to identify details of cross-correlation more distinctly,cross-correlation is analyzed by MODWT(maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform)on various scales.The sum of wavelet variance after decomposition is equal to the variance of original time series.Along with decomposition,the characteristic of high kurtosis and thick tail has been decaying;distribution of new time series is tending to normal distribution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Analysis of Games of Information Security Investment Based on Interdependent Security Lü Jun-jie, QIU Wan-hua, WANG Yuan-zhuo 2006, (3):  7-12.  Abstract ( 2114 )   PDF (761KB) ( 1531 )   Save Based on the interdependence,which is an important characteristic of information security and the diversity of invasions,an investment game model is presented in this paper.The paper investigates the investment risk exerted by the contagion between firms in the network.With externality representing the risk,the relationship between investment risks and the interdependent extension and the amount of firms in the network is illustrated.By use of the model,the investment risk and decision are analyzed quantitatively and then several Nash equilibrium solutions are provided further. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Decision Mode of Supply Chain for Time-Sensitive and Price-Sensitive Demand MA Shi-hua, WANG Fu-shou 2006, (3):  13-19.  Abstract ( 2178 )   PDF (1707KB) ( 2256 )   Save In the market competition of customized products,demands are both time-sensitive and price-sensitive.In this papdr,the decision problem of MTO supply chain was studied separately in decentralized decision mode and centralized decision mode.The decision processes in two modes were analyzed and the optimal solutions were found.A numerical analysis was proposed with an application in Auto industry.It's proved that more profit of supply chain can be gained with the mode of centralized decision.Thus,and effective decision tool and method are provided for supply chain enterprise to compete in both time-sensitive and price-sensitive markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on Pull Supply Chain Dynamic Scheduling Based on Improved Ant Algorithm YAO Jian-ming, ZHANG Xiu-min, LIU Li-wen 2006, (3):  20-26.  Abstract ( 2102 )   PDF (1387KB) ( 1921 )   Save Generation roots of dynamical property for the pulled supply chain scheduling are analyzed,and it is pointed out that the existence of collaboration and competition connections between the supply chain collaboration members is rather complicated,which results in particularity of the supply chain dynamic scheduling.Two dominant choke points of this scheduling process are also analyzed.To settle these problems rationally,optimization mechanism that originates from ant group looking for food is introduced into this process,and ant group optimization algorithm for supply chain dynamic scheduling is adopted to devise and improve its particular algorithm.Feasibility and efficiency of the new algorithm ultimately get validated through a simulation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Non-Cooperation Game Analysis of Sampling Inspection in Quality Management of Supply Chain ZHANG Bin, HUA Zhong-sheng 2006, (3):  27-31.  Abstract ( 2030 )   PDF (1298KB) ( 2511 )   Save Quality assurance is a basic requirement for establishment and maintenance of the long-term cooperation relationship of the supply chain.The paper proposes a non-cooperation game analysis model of sampling inspection in quality management of supply chain,and analyzes how the downstream manufacturers should determine their sampling plan based on the quality of supplier's product.Simulation results show that the sampling plan of a supply chain is different from the traditional sampling plan of an independent enterprise.In comparison with the traditional sampling plan,the sampling plan described in this paper can lower the costs,and increase the expected profits of supplier and manufacturer. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Collaboration Mechanism Based on Penalty and Bonus under Asymmetric Information ZHANG Cui-hua, REN Jin-yu, YU Hai-bin 2006, (3):  32-37.  Abstract ( 2080 )   PDF (1654KB) ( 1901 )   Save Collaboration mechanism between producer and suplier is studied under asymmetric information.Necessity of coordination mechanism is analyzed by comparing supply chain decision under asymmetric information with supply chain decision under symmetric information.Then an incentive function based on penalty cost and bonus is introduced and a coordination mechanism is set up by the combined use of order quantity,bonus and penalty cost type of instrument.Focus is on the study that the supply chain performance under asymmetric information is optimized through the producer's adjusting penalty cost and bonus with the determined order quantity.Simulation calculation is done and simulation results under different information backgrounds are compared at last. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Ordering Policy for Perishable Product with Progressive Price Discounts DAN Bin, CHEN Jun, WU Qing 2006, (3):  38-44.  Abstract ( 1906 )   PDF (1410KB) ( 1758 )   Save Based on the newsboy model for price discounts,the bended price-demand curve for distributors is analyzed.Progressive price discounts of products are adopted to pursue the expected maximum profit,and thenan algorithm for calculating the times of the price discounts is developed and the optimal order quantity of distributors can be obtained.To compare withe the non-changeable slope of th price-demand curve b,the increase of b seldom influences the optimal order quantity,and the decrease of b obviously influences the optimal order quantity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Cournot Game of Setting Optimal Markdown Timing for Perishable Products YANG Hui, Zhou Jing 2006, (3):  45-50.  Abstract ( 2084 )   PDF (1717KB) ( 1699 )   Save This paper deals with a kind of specific retailing that sells a fixed stock of perishable goods over a finite horizon.A Cournot game model is proposed based on Gallego and Van Ryzin's two-price policy.The Cournot equilibrium point is found out in the figure of the strategy sets.It is found that the optimal markdown timing of the leading product will be delayed and that of the following product will be advanced.A numerical example is provided and the effect of the customer's transfer probability p between suppliers on the equilibrium of the game is analyzed.The model proposed in this paper is helpful for the suppliers to determine the markdown timing of perishable products when the competitiveness exists. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Approach for Customer Requirement Mining and Attribute Weight Estimating Based on Evidence Combination DENG Ming-rong, WU Hong-mei 2006, (3):  51-55.  Abstract ( 1998 )   PDF (1856KB) ( 1824 )   Save In reality,the weights of attributes(e.g.indices of a product) often depend on the requirement of the customer.Hency the customer preference information is important for weight identifyiing.Such information may be not direct expressed as importance attached to attributes,but implied in their preference on a set of given alternatives.Along with the attribute evaluation,there also maybe exists uncertainty of ignorance.For this kind of circumstance,an attribute weight estimating method based on mining the latent customer requirement is proposed.The theory of evidence combination and goal programming is employed in the procedure.An illustration example is given. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Ant Colony Approach for Discovery of Users Interest Navigation Paths MA Xi-jun, LING Hai-feng, LIU Ye-zheng , JIANG Yuan-chun 2006, (3):  56-59.  Abstract ( 2026 )   PDF (665KB) ( 1705 )   Save In the advance of e-commerce,it is an urgent problem how to understand the users access behaviors in the web site accurately.web usage mining is an important research approach for this problem.As an important research field of web usage mining,mining users interest navigation patterns is the fundamental approach for optimizing the frame design of web site.In this paper,we consider the web users as artificial ants,and use the ant colony approach for users navigation patterns.Firstly,a web site model is built.Secondly,a navigation model is established based on ant colony approach and web logs.Finally,we design an algorithm regarding all users as entity for mining their preferred navigation paths.Experiment showed that it is accurate for users browsing interest patterns. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Whole Diversity-Based Reasoning for Objective Combined Evaluation GUO Ya-jun, YI Ping-tao 2006, (3):  60-64.  Abstract ( 1919 )   PDF (2304KB) ( 2087 )   Save Inconsistency among the evaluation conclusions drawn by different evaluation methods exists in the multi-attribute evaluation.An objective combined evaluation method based on whole diversity was proposed in the paper in order to solve the inconsistency.The method has the characteristics of automatic discrimination's rewards and punishment,combined results' accuracy and programming easiness.Finally,a numerical example was given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analyzing the Consistency of Comparison Matrix Based on G1 Method WANG Xue-jun, GUO Ya-jun 2006, (3):  65-70.  Abstract ( 2407 )   PDF (1096KB) ( 3188 )   Save The difficulty of applying the AHP method is the construction of the comparison matrix,and the difficulty of constructing the comparison matrix lies in the consistency problem of the matrix.This paper analyzes the reasons which result in the inconsistency of the comparison matrix from AHP through the G1 method,points out the essential difference between the G1 method and the construction of the comparison matrix and solves the problem of applying the AHP method.Also,the wrong conclusions based on the construction of the comparison matrix in some literatures are analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Method for Determining the Posterior Weight of Expert Based on Fuzzy Judgment Matrices ZHOU Yu-feng, WEI Fa-jie 2006, (3):  71-75.  Abstract ( 2391 )   PDF (2270KB) ( 2563 )   Save In this paper,the problem about assessing expert's weight in aggregating the group preference information of fuzzy judgment matrices is studied.The characteristic matrix of fuzzy judgment matrix and optimized model for calculating the comprehensive matrix are presented.A new method for deriving posterior weight is given based on reliability of expert's fuzzy judgment matrix.In the end,an example is presented to illustrate the approaches. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A New Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm Based on PIM and the Kernel Method GUAN Zhong-cheng, XIONG Hui-qin 2006, (3):  76-79.  Abstract ( 2260 )   PDF (1184KB) ( 1714 )   Save The traditional "fuzzy" clustering(FCM) converges slowly when confronted with a large number of data points,meanwhile it can't deal with non-hyper spherical data structure,which compel us to present a new fuzzy clustering algorithm-the KPIM algorithm based on partition index maximization(PIM) algorithm and the kernel method.As well the paper proves convergence theorem of the new algorithm.The results of experiments on the real data show that the KPIM algorithm can effectively cluster on data with diversiform structures while guaranteeing the computation time in contrast to other previous algorithms. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Fuzzy Interval Clustering Approach of Regional Products with Incomplete Certain Information WANG Jian-qiang, GAO Yang, WU Xiao-yue, ZHOU Zheng-hong 2006, (3):  80-85.  Abstract ( 2041 )   PDF (1415KB) ( 1329 )   Save Regional products classification and select is one of the most important and basic work in the regional economic development.When the products are selected and classified,we have to confirm such parameters as criteria's weights and categorized threshold values.This is a difficult job in practice.Focus on this kind of situation,a fuzzy interval clustering method on classification the regional products with incomplete uncertain information have proposed.This method structures a optimum fuzzy interval clustering model whose criteria's weights' information is incomplete uncertain,then solve the problem by GA and FCM jointly and get the criteria's weights,the optimum cluster center and the optimum partition,and then confirm the affiliation of all products.Finally,apply this method to the sureness of the product classification of a region and leading products,an example is given to show the feasibility and availability of this method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Simulation Research on Improving the Flow Capability of Emergency Networks WU Wei-wei, NING Xuan-xi 2006, (3):  86-91.  Abstract ( 2059 )   PDF (1591KB) ( 1622 )   Save The flow is easily blocked at some nodes in the emergency network.The saturated flow is diversified and stochastic.It is one of the important indices for studying the flow capability of the network under the stochastic flow.To improve the flow capability of the network and reduce the occurrence of blockage,two reconstructed methods are proposed in this paper.The probability distributions of the different saturated flows are obtained by the simulation model.The processing of the two reconstructed methods is analyzed using the two evaluating indicators,i.e.the expected flow of network and the bias-variance of saturated flow.Accordingly,the optimal reconstructing process is proposed.The applied foreground of the two scenarios are analyzed in the end. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Revenue Equivalence for AdWords Auction ZHANG E, WANG Ying-luo 2006, (3):  92-96.  Abstract ( 2183 )   PDF (1044KB) ( 2607 )   Save Auction is a new strategy that the Internet Search Engine adopts to price its AdWords,and several methods come into being in Adwords auction practice.We compare the auctioneer's revenue generated by two kinds of auction,Winner-pay auction and All-pay auction.Our research shows that the revenue in the two auction scenario is equivalent,despite the various difference in the bidders' information structure and the relative number of bidders to AdWords.Moreover,If specify our model to the single object auction and multi-unit homogeneous objects auction,we can obtain the same conclusion as previous. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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VECM Based Analysis of Gasoline/Diesel Prices Anti-Symmetry JIAO Jian-ling, FAN Ying, WEI Yi-ming 2006, (3):  97-102.  Abstract ( 2026 )   PDF (1481KB) ( 1848 )   Save As petroleum products prime raw material,the change of crude oil price must cause the change of refined oil price.From the reaction,we could understand the rationality of refined oil pricing.In this paper,the anti-symmetry of gasoline/diesel to crude oil price fluctuation is investigated by using anti-symmetry VECM.Results show that the responses to crude oil price increase are quicker and transient,to crude oil price decrease are delayed and lasting.This study provides scientific supports on how to properly elude the risk incurred by oil price hike,as well as how to perform thorough reformation of China's oil price system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Effects of Identification on Relevant Evaluation Lü Zhou-yang, WU Guang-mou, HE Jianmin 2006, (3):  103-107.  Abstract ( 1891 )   PDF (1278KB) ( 1425 )   Save In this paper,a game-model of "leader with multiple followers" was founded to analyze the relevant evaluation.It discussed the relationship,especially the potential conspiracy,between multiple constituency.Arguments from mathematical models quantitatively validated the interdependence between culture and institution within an enterprise.It also authenticated the necessity of institution construction. Related Articles | Metrics

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Telecommunication Service Pricing Strategy Research PENG Yun-fei, MA Chao-qun 2006, (3):  108-115.  Abstract ( 2037 )   PDF (1976KB) ( 1418 )   Save The price competition is one of pricing influence factors.Overseas mostly from quota angle,take cost as foundation,through models research telecommunication service pricing,but the country models of domestic virtue mostly from the qualitative angle research telecommunication service pricing idea,and method.Generally speaking,under the two-shift system price pattern,the telecommunication service pricing and the expense current capacity price will affect the user quantity and the expense current capacity,finally will affect the enterprise's operation income.This paper through the model analyze change of two-shift system of price to the user quantity and traffic flow,and considers the technology promotion influence,theoretically points out based on the income,the scale and the traffic flow pricing method,at the same time points out according to the customer payment level and the enterprise need to develop,pricing strategy and the method,to subdivide the market method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Collusion-Proof Mechanism in Supervising in Public Administration DONG Zhi-qiang, PU Yong-jian 2006, (3):  116-121.  Abstract ( 2013 )   PDF (2268KB) ( 1900 )   Save Collusion is a hackneyed phenomenon in supervising in public administration.Two-side collusion model is too simple to analyze it,and we should consider the collusion probability and collusion-proof mechanism in a multiple-tier-agency complete contract framework.This paper presents a "government/supervisor/firm"three-tier hierarchy model and shows that,an ex ante lowcost-and-high-efficiency punishment device is important for collusion-proof contract.Contract based on collusion-proof incentive compensations absolutely will have little efficiency,and contract based on punishment device absolutely will have efficiency only in some specific conditions.Our model can also be used in analyzing the government choice behavior in trade-off of social benefits and social costs of production. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Six-Layer Model for the Knowledge Transfer Process WANG Zhao-xiang 2006, (3):  122-127.  Abstract ( 2139 )   PDF (570KB) ( 1296 )   Save In this paper we Investigate the universal process of the knowledge transfer,and build a six-layer model for the knowledge transfer porcess.According to the model,any knowledge transfer process has six layers: physical layer,data layer,language layer,knowledge layer,ability layer,application layer.The model also tells us that a knowledge transfer process is successful only if all of the six levels of the transfer is finished. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Analyses on Structure Changes in Chinese Macroeconomics Data Series based on RVAR Model ZHOU Jian 2006, (3):  128-134.  Abstract ( 2236 )   PDF (1362KB) ( 1497 )   Save This paper uses RVAR model to deeply analyze 36 Chinese macroeconomics data series from the view of economic system and finds out the features and rules of the structure changes.The results show:The trend components and the primitive series have the same features of structure changes,but there exist obvious differences between them on the ranges and scopes.The structure changes of Chinese macroeconomics data are mostly affected by the compounding way and the constitutive proportion of the trend components and the volatility components.The most of structure changes appear in the cluster form more or less,and there are deep internal relationship between them,and the structure changes are mostly caused by the historic factors and external shocks.Almost all of the original series and the trend components have different volatility features in the structure changes,but corrected series and the trend components are the most similar features. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Investment Option-game Equilibrium Strategy Analyses Based on Time-to-Build CAO Guo-hua, PAN Qiang 2006, (3):  135-141.  Abstract ( 2044 )   PDF (2066KB) ( 1672 )   Save This paper extends symmetrical duopoly real option timing game model under uncertainty by introducing a time-to-build,analyzes the influence of time-to-build on firms' investment decision and investment cascades.As the time-to-build increasing,the payoffs of firm's decrease and investment thresholds increase,so firms prefer waiting to investing even facing the threat of preemption of the rival.The further analysis shows that the greater demand market volatility will be the one more prone to investment cascades,and unlike economic intuition,time-to-build has no effect on investment cascades as well as investment cost.In addition,the model provides an explanation for the local over-investment phenomenon in an industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling and Simulation of Corporate Lifecycle Using System Dynamics HU Bin, ZHANG De-bing, ZHANG Jin-long 2006, (3):  142-148.  Abstract ( 2282 )   PDF (606KB) ( 4199 )   Save The various effects of the factors on corporate lifecycle are studied using system dynamics.By analyzing the growing process and the key factors,a causal graph and a system dynamical model,which can describe the changes of corporate lifecycle,are built.The system dynamical model is coded by language C#.The validation of the model is taken,and it is applied to an example.The simulation results show that the method of the model is valid for simulating the revolution of corporation lifecycle,and can be served as computer aided decision tool for managers to control the cooperation organization and its vitality. References | Related Articles | Metrics