Table of Content

15 October 2023, Volume 31 Issue 10 Previous Issue   

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Does Margin Trading System Reduce the Degree of Information Asymmetry in Stock Trading? ————Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market Ming-tao WANG,Qian LI 2023, 31 (10):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0779 Abstract ( 308 )   HTML ( 46 )   PDF (1153KB) ( 291 )   Save Since advantage information holders can benefit by using private information and adversely select liquidity providers， reducing information asymmetry has always been an active topic in market microstructure research. Based on the high-frequency （1-minute） data of China's A-share market from 2008 to 2019， DID is used and effect model is fixed to look at how margin trading business improves the level of information asymmetry from the perspective of regulation implementation and margin trading.From our results， the following conclusions are drawn. First， from a regulation implementation perspective， research results indicate that， after the implementation of margin trading， the degree of the information asymmetry of underlying stocks decreases. Moreover， after the shares are listed as the subject of margin trading， the degree of information asymmetry for good news decreases year by year， and the degree of information asymmetry for bad news first increases and then decreases. Second， from a margin trading perspective， it is confirmed that an inferior level of information advantage in financing trading reduces the information asymmetry of good news， while a fairly high level of information advantage in short selling increases the information asymmetry of bad news. According to additional research， financing based on public information reduces the degree of information asymmetry in good news transactions of underlying stocks， whereas trading based on unpublished information increases it. On the other hand， both public information-based and private information-based short selling deteriorate the degree of information asymmetry in bad news trading. Finally， the effects of either long or short trading on the information asymmetry level vary across market cycles. The improvement of information asymmetry based on financing is weakened in a bull market but strengthened in a bear market， the deterioration of information asymmetry level based on short trading is strengthened in a bull market but weakened in a bear market.This study is about the effect of margin trading in Chinese stock market. According to existing research， it is found that a significant body of literature focuses on the effects of margin trading on the efficiency of financial market but seldom discuss whether the introduction of long and short trading promotes market fairness or not. This gap is bridged by identifying the effects of margin trading on the information asymmetry level from the perspective of regulation implementation and margin transactions.On the other side， the literature on information asymmetry is another related research field. In Market Microstructure Theory studies， information accuracy， information advantage， and trader characteristics are usually the key research points in earlier studies. However， it is shown that the asymmetry level of good news and bad news differs in financing and short selling， which suggests that distinguishing investor attention to good and bad news would be an interesting direction in market microstructure research. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Buyer's Optimal Guarantee Policy for a Financially Constrained Supplier Yan-hai LI,Ling ZHAO 2023, 31 (10):  12-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1440 Abstract ( 176 )   HTML ( 21 )   PDF (789KB) ( 315 )   Save In a bilateral supply chain， the retailer sources product from the supplier to satisfy the random demand. The supplier needs to produce the product before the demand is realized. The supplier is financially constrained and can borrow money from the bank if necessary. As the capital market is perfectly competitive， the bank will determine the interest rate based on the loan amount and the associated risk so as to maintain its expected return rate equal to the exogenous risk-free rate. In order to reduce the financing cost of the supplier and induce him to produce more product， the retailer has a motivation to provide a （partial or full） guarantee for the supplier’s loan. A key feature of our model is that the guarantee is not a hard constraint of the loan amount， i.e.， the supplier can borrow as much as he needs， regardless of the retailer’s guarantee proportion. The retailer and supplier play a Stackelberg game. The retailer needs to decide the purchasing price and guarantee proportion as a leader， and then the supplier determines the production quantity as a follower. Both the retailer and supplier are risk-neutral profit maximizers. By backward induction， the supplier’s decision is studied， and then retailer’s problem is considered.For any given purchasing price and guarantee proportion， the supplier’s expected profit is quasi-concave in the production quantity， and thus his optimal-response production quantity is unique. The retailer’s optimal policy is to provide a full guarantee for the supplier’s loan. The retailer’s guarantee will not change he financing cost of the whole supply chain， but can shares the supplier’s financing cost. By providing a full guarantee， the retailer can maintain the supplier’s production quantity unchanged while offering a lower purchasing price. The overall effect of full guarantee is beneficial to the retailer. In other words， a full guarantee causes larger financial loss but brings higher sales profit to the retailer. The retailer’s optimal expected profit is demonstrated to be decreasing in the supplier’s internal capital. Thus， the retailer will be better off to work with a less wealthy supplier. Finally， the bankruptcy cost is incorporated into the model. It turns out that the presence of bankruptcy cost is unbeneficial to the retailer， but will not change the retailer’s guarantee policy. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Novel Approach to Supply Chain Cooperative Management: the Design of Intelligent Contract Hui YU,Yu GONG,Yong LI 2023, 31 (10):  20-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2084 Abstract ( 249 )   HTML ( 25 )   PDF (2471KB) ( 430 )   Save Contract mechanism is one of the fundamental methods of supply chain cooperative management， but the ability of enterprises to deal with it is limited. Especially under the appeal of the intelligent supply chain， dynamic and intelligent contract management represents the general trend. Contract is taken as the medium to discuss the behavior and ability between a human and a robot after introducing artificial intelligence（AI） into the supply chain.The newsvendor problem with one manufacturer and one retailer is considered and a human or a robot is used to make a wholesale price contract to build a classical model and an intelligent model. The meaning of this combination is to utilize deep reinforcement learning， construct a core algorithm in man-robot cooperation（“mechanism learning”， “behavior constraint”， and “feedback penalty”）， as well as provide the intelligent contract. Through carrying out three kinds of intelligent experiments named “behavior characteristic”， “cooperation ability” and “environment adaptation”， the research has three significant findings. The intelligent decision-making robot（IDMR） designed by man-robot cooperation can provide a supply chain contract. Depending on big data training， there is no need to share demand information. It is worthy to e that an intelligent contract shows the intention of a cooperative to improve system efficiency at the expense of individual（manufacturer） profit. It also has good adaptability to environmental changes and disturbances. On the one hand， this research inherits and develops the content of machine behavior， on the other hand， it is a novel method to forge an intelligent supply chain with the contract. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Market Design of Electricity Bidding Trading Ru-kai GONG 2023, 31 (10):  30-39.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2071 Abstract ( 151 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (568KB) ( 281 )   Save “Electricity bidding on the grid” is the basic condition for the electricity industry to achieve market-oriented operation， and the bidding mechanism design is an important topic that needs to be discussed in deepening the reform of the electricity market. The existing theory and practice show that uniform price auction （UPA） and discriminatory price auction （DPA） are the two main bidding mechanisms usually used in electricity market transactions. Then， based on the commodity attributes and industry characteristics of electricity， a discrete multi-item auction model framework is adopted to model the transaction mechanism of electricity bidding on the grid.First， a benchmark model of duopoly is established， considering that there are two power generation companies with asymmetric production capacity and marginal cost “single-goods” quotation function. The equilibrium bidding behavior of power generation companies is depicted under the UPA and DPA mechanisms， and they are compared from the expected revenue and production efficiency. Then， considering more realistic situations， the model is expanded from aspects of multivariate oligopoly， multi-unit quotation， more flexible demand function and longer quotation interval， and the following conclusions are obtained：（i） The equilibrium quotation of power generation manufacturers depends on the state of demand： In the state of low demand， the market equilibrium price under the two mechanisms does not exceed the marginal cost of the maximum efficiency generator that has not been invoked； in the state of high demand， there are multiple pure strategy equilibriums under the UPA mechanism； and a mixed strategy equilibrium under DPA mechanism. （ii） The comparison of the expected revenue is affected by the quotation interval： when the demand is determined （the quotation period is short）， compared with the UPA mechanism， the power generation company obtains a lower revenue under the DPA； Under the situation of uncertain demand （long quotation period）， symmetrical power generation companies face the same expected return under the two mechanisms. （iii） The comparison of the UPA and DPA mechanisms in terms of production efficiency is not clear， which depends on the model parameters and the choice of multiple pure strategy equilibrium under the UPA mechanism.It attempts to use the auction theory framework to model the power market bidding online. By comparing the market performance of the two bidding mechanisms， the boundary conditions for mechanism design and selection are obtained. It is hoped that these conclusions will provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for improving the design of the power market bidding online transaction mechanism and deepening the power system reform in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mutual Funds' Dynamic Liquidity Risk Management Dan-yang WANG,Lu-shi YAO 2023, 31 (10):  40-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2269 Abstract ( 103 )   HTML ( 15 )   PDF (549KB) ( 202 )   Save Liquidity risk management is particularly relevant for mutual funds as they face redemption risk induced by investors’ discretion. When market volatility surges， the probability of fund performance falling below threshold increases， which triggers investor redemption. Especially when funds don’t have enough liquid assets to meet redemption， they will have to fire sale illiquid assets and bear considerable liquidity costs. More importantly， mutual funds’ asset liquidating behavior continuously pulls down asset prices， causes externality to other funds and negatively affects market stability. It is of paramount importance to discuss mutual funds’ liquidity risk management in a volatile market.Using a sample of Chinese mutual funds from 2006-2018， the signal， existence and performance implication of two kinds of mutual fund dynamic liquidity management strategy are tested. First， the relationship between market volatility and fund flow is examined. It is the premise to adopt market volatility as a dynamic signal for fund liquidity risk management. Second， relationship between expected market volatility and fund liquidity is tested， in order to reexamine the dynamic liquidity cushion strategy discovered in American stock market. Third， another novel dynamic liquidity management strategy is proposed and it is named as the liquidity commonality reduction strategy. When market volatility goes up， market liquidity goes down. Mutual fund can reserve liquidity by reducing their liquidity sensitivity to the declining market liquidity. The relationship between expected market volatility and fund liquidity commonality is tested， so as to explore the existence of this strategy. Finally， the performance implication of the two dynamic liquidity risk management strategies is examined. It is found that expected market volatility is negatively related to fund flows. It may be an effective signal for fund redemption pressure and thus liquidity risk management. Results show， both dynamic liquidity cushion and liquidity commonality reduction behavior exist in Chinese capital market， but only the latter one can significantly improve fund performance. This study provides empirical evidence for fund managers and regulators to draw up effective plans to manage liquidity risk. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Government Subsidy Strategy of Low-carbon Supply Chain Based on Block-chain Technology Ling-rong ZHANG,Bo PENG,Chun-qi CHENG 2023, 31 (10):  49-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2362 Abstract ( 537 )   HTML ( 64 )   PDF (907KB) ( 876 )   Save With the continuous progress of China's economy and society， green development has become a national strategy， and carbon emission reduction is an important measure. The government can promote the investment of enterprises' emission reduction technology and increase social welfare through moderate low-carbon subsidies to enterprises. The introduction of block-chain technology into the low-carbon supply chain can improve the coordination degree of low-carbon decision-making among the main bodies of the supply chain and promote the emission reduction of enterprises. Therefore， it is of great significance to study the government subsidy strategy of low-carbon supply chain based on block-chain technology. In this paper， a two-level low-carbon supply chain composed of a manufacturer and a retailer is taken as the research object， and the government subsidy strategy of the low-carbon supply chain is taken as the research topic. The government invests in the construction of the application platform of block-chain technology， and the supply chain enterprises pay to use the block-chain technology. Under this background， considering consumers' low-carbon preference and green trust， this paper set up before and after the application block chain technology under R&D investment subsidy policy or output subsidy policy of these four situations of three stages Stackelberg game models， in which the government takes the lead and manufacturers and retailers follow and the government to the social welfare maximization as the goal， manufacturers and retailers in order to maximize their own interests as the goal， through comparing the four kinds of situations of the optimal rate of social welfare， carbon reduction and low carbon product production， discusses the government low carbon subsidies strategy of optimal problem. And the validity of the results is verified through the analysis of examples. The results show that when the product of consumers' low-carbon preference coefficient and green trust coefficient is greater than a certain fixed value， the government can obtain higher social welfare through output subsidies， and promote enterprises to reduce emissions more effectively. Governments have been able to boost demand for low-carbon products through output subsidies. When the cost coefficient of emission reduction approaches infinity， the demand for low-carbon products when the government implements output subsidies is 4 times that when the government implements R&D investment subsidies. When the single-cycle cost sharing of block-chain platform and the unit cost of enterprises' application of block-chain technology are less than a certain threshold， the government's construction of block-chain platform can obtain higher social welfare， promote enterprises' emission reduction and improve consumers' demand for low-carbon products. Therefore， the government should increase investment in science and technology， and to make efforts to reduce the block chain platform construction cost and prolong the cycle of block chain platform， for low carbon green products to create a fair， just and open market environment， and control technology of enterprise application block chain unit cost within a reasonable range， encourage enterprises to actively application block chain technology， in order to obtain higher social welfare. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Green Supply Chain Decision Based on Flexible Option and Forward Contract Liang WANG,Jia-hao LAI 2023, 31 (10):  61-73.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0560 Abstract ( 125 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (798KB) ( 231 )   Save Ordering through flexible option has increasingly become one of the main ways to improve the efficiency of supply chain operations in practice. It aims to investigate the optimal decision-making process in green supply chain when flexible option， forward contract or a combination of both are adopted by the members. Firstly， based on the “flexible option + forward contract” hybrid decision-making model， it divides the decision-making process of green supply chain into two stages： ordering and contract execution. Secondly， it determines the expected revenue function of the members on the basis of clarifying the decision-making mechanism of the green supply chain. Thirdly， it determines the optimal decision-making of each member when the supplier only provides flexible option or hybrid contract through mathematical derivation. Finally， through simulation analysis， it compares and studies the collaborative influence of product recovery value， forward and option contracts execution price on decision-makers under different contract conditions. The results illustrate that： （i） Under the premise that the supplier provides a hybrid contract ordering method， the expected revenue of “flexible option contract only” is higher than that of "forward contract only". The supplier can adopt the strategy of increasing the execution price forward contract and guide the retailer to choose the flexible option contract. （ii） Provided that the supplier only provides the flexible option contract， when the option contract execution price is high and the product recovery value is low， the forward contract is the optimal purchasing strategy for the retailer. However， the retailer's revenue will be reduced if he adopts the flexible option contract. The supplier can encourage the retailer to adopt the flexible option contract through the revenue-sharing mechanism. The methods and findings of this paper can help solve the problem of coordination mechanism of green supply chain，and reduce the negative impact of double marginal utility. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Compensation Incentive Mechanism of Mixed State-owned Enterprise's Double-principal under Fairness Preference Qi ZHU,Yan-bing LI,Wen-ting CAO 2023, 31 (10):  74-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0609 Abstract ( 118 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (722KB) ( 230 )   Save The mixed ownership economy has been an important implementation form of my China's basic economic system， which pointed out at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. The 2021 government work report also clearly clarified deepening the reform of mixed ownership. Moreover， the three-year action plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises （2020-2022） proposes to focus on improving the market-oriented operation mechanism and speed up the construction of the professional manager system. The introduction of these policy documents provides a clear direction for state-owned enterprises in the process of mixed ownership reform， also showed the important influence of executive incentives in state-owned enterprises on corporate governance after the mixed-ownership reform. In the process of mixed ownership reform， state-owned enterprises after reform have two types of differentiated principals， state-owned and non-state-owned shareholders. Both state-owned capital and non-state-owned capital are important participants in corporate decision-making. However， they have consistent economic goals， but conflicting social goals. Different principals have different incentive goals and different incentive models will have different effects on the behaviors of manager. Moreover， manager’s behaviors are susceptible to emotional factors. For this reason， based on the FS model， BO model， and common agency theory， double-principal agency incentive mechanism is explored when manager is fully rational under the condition of information asymmetric further discusses how the effort choice and compensation incentives is effect by considering manager’s fairness preference.Meanwhile， the dynamic evolution process of the influence of the double-principal incentive behavior on the manager’s effort choice under different initial states is simulated through MATLAB software. The main conclusions show that： （1）The manager will consider the incentive gap between the two tasks， and tendency to complete tasks with a higher output incentive coefficient； （2） The optimal effort of manager is positively correlated with the level of control rights； （3） The optimal effort of manager and incentive compensation are positively correlated with the intensity of jealousy and pride， and are negatively correlated with the intensity of empathy； （4） Under the same circumstances， compared with a fully rational manager， the manager’s fairness preference can increase the optimal level of effort and has a significant incentive effect.The conclusion of this paper is helpful to enrich the research on the influence of fairness preference on principal-agent theory， and it is of significance for studying the level of decentralization of state-owned enterprises based on the reform of mixed ownership and improving the incentive mechanism of managers. In the future， when promoting the development of mixed ownership from the policy level and promoting the synergy between state-owned capital and non-state-owned capital based on their respective comparative advantages， the government should further construct a reasonable policy system， improve both the professional manager system and the market-oriented operation mechanism. State-owned enterprises should actively seek cooperation with non-state-owned capital and choose a reasonable level of decentralization， in order to reduce the transaction costs of the participants in the mixed ownership reform and improve the efficiency of the mixed ownership reform. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Emission Reduction Game between an Overconfident Manufacturer and an Emission Reduction Service Supplier under the Cap-and-trade Regulation Liang-jie XIA,Yun-li CAO,Wen-hao YIN,Qiu-mei NING,You-dong LI 2023, 31 (10):  85-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1079 Abstract ( 160 )   HTML ( 21 )   PDF (1067KB) ( 263 )   Save Considering the constraints of cap-and-trade regulation， a supply chain decision-making model of overconfident manufacturers and emission reduction service suppliers is constructed， and the game equilibrium between manufacturers and emission reduction service suppliers under the two outsourcing modes of customization and ordering is studied. It also discussed the impact of overconfidence and related parameters on the supply chain members’ decision-making and expected profits. The research showed that both manufacturers and emission reduction service suppliers have optimal decisions under the two emission reduction modes. Under the customization and ordering mode， the output， emission reduction per unit product and profit of manufacturers and emission reduction service suppliers decreased with the increase of initial carbon emissions and manufacturers' emission reduction coefficient. In addition to the price of emission reduction services， output， emission reduction per unit of product and profit change opposite to the emission reduction coefficient of emission reduction service suppliers. Under certain conditions， the optimal decision， expected profit and actual profit of supply chain enterprises under the two modes generally decreased with the increase of overconfidence level. When the distribution function of market demand is uniformly distributed， the ordering mode is more beneficial to the emission reduction service supplier， and the customization mode is more beneficial to the manufacturer. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Model for Calculating the Value of Carbon Emission Rights Based on the Ideas of Biophysical Economics Jia-yi ZHOU,Lian-yong FENG,Jin-hong ZHU 2023, 31 (10):  96-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1684 Abstract ( 112 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (1488KB) ( 230 )   Save Understanding the true value of carbon emission rights is the key to building the EmissionsTrading System.A model for estimating the value range of carbon emission rights is proposed based on the idea of biophysical economics， which explains the intrinsic value of carbon emission rights in terms of environment capacity value， thus distinguishing it from the explanation methods that use marginal abatement costs of enterprises， primary market prices or secondary market prices. Although the DICE model （Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy） partially achieves this goal using the social cost of carbon （SCC）， the complex external transmission chain of “emissions-carbon cycle-climate change-economic loss” made the results sensitive to the discount rate. A solution is proposed that enables carbon value to be measured by probability. Carbon emission rights are a financial derivative whose value is based on greenhouse gases' environment capacity. Greenhouse gases' environment capacity is produced by carbon sequestration activities. The model first examines the value formation process of environment capacity. As the cheapest and mass-producible carbon sink， forestry carbon sinks are used to assess the cost of environment capacity. The Benítez model is drawn on for measuring the cost of carbon sinks， using a probability distribution to describe all the factors that affect the cost of absorbtion， and a Monte Carlo method is used to perform 10，000 trials on these factors. The final report of the probability distribution of the value of carbon emission rights and the sensitivity analysis of the model is obtained. A mirror price model is also propased for carbon emission rights. The mirror price is the monetary amount that should be paid per unit of carbon emissions for the production of a country's environment capacity and the monetary loss to the country caused by the international carbon mechanism. The mirror price is a theoretical carbon price consistent with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in the Paris Agreement， taking different national circumstances into account. The mirror price can explain the intrinsic drivers of the carbon price.The value of carbon emission rights in China is examined using data on land prices， timber prices， and cedar forests carbon sink. The model can also be applied to value carbon emission rights in other countries. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Operation Decisions of an Online Dual-Channel Supply Chain under Different Financing Strategies Ting TANG,Hai-yan XU,Zhi-chao ZHANG 2023, 31 (10):  106-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0201 Abstract ( 171 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (724KB) ( 336 )   Save With the development of e-commerce and the change of people's consumption habits， more and more manufacturers have opened online sales channels， which include online distribution channel and online direct sales channel. Although the manufacturer can benefit from opening online sales channel， financial constraint has always been an important factor restricting the development of the manufacturer. In order to obtain more profits， some large e-commerce platforms began to involve in the field of supply chain finance， providing financing services for enterprises settled in their platforms. Consequently， the manufacturer is no longer limited to traditional bank financing， and e-commerce platform financing is also an important financing channel. Therefore， some key issues must be considered： When does the e-commerce platform provide financing service？ Which financing mode should the manufacturer choose when two financing modes are available？ Focusing on these questions， a supply chain consisting of one capital-constrained manufacturer and one e-commerce platform in which the manufacturer sells his product on the e-commerce platform through dual-channels is developed， i.e.， the online distribution channel and the online direct channel. In the online distribution channel， the manufacturer wholesales the product to the e-commerce platform who subsequently sells it to the end consumers. In the online direct channel， the manufacturer directly retails the product to the consumer on the e-commerce platform by paying a part of sales as the revenue share. To alleviate financial shortage， the capital-constrained manufacturer can choose internal financing （e-commerce platform financing） or external financing （bank financing）. To seek the financing strategy， the equilibrium pricing decisions and the optimal interest rate under two different financing strategies are obtained and compared. Analytical results show that： Firstly， when the relative interest rates set by the e-commerce platform and the bank lie in a certain range， the manufacturer and the e-commerce platform will select the same financing strategy by maximizing the individual profit， thereby achieving a “win-win” outcome. Secondly， when the interest rates are the same in the two financing strategies， the e-commerce platform financing enjoys a higher wholesale price and lower retail price of the distribution channel than the bank financing. Thirdly， when one of the parameters： E-commerce platform's revenue sharing ratio， cross price elasticity coefficient and proportion of consumers in distribution channel are relatively large， the manufacturer chooses e-commerce platform for financing under the optimal loan interest rate. Simultaneously， the manufacturer and the e-commerce platform are willing to charge lower retail prices to stimulate market demand under the e-commerce platform financing model. The results of this paper have important management significance for the enterprise and the e-commerce platform. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Low-Carbon Emission Reduction in a Closed-loop Supply Chain with Multiple Demands under Two Subsidy Policies Fu-an ZHANG,Na LI,Qing-li DA,Wen-bin WANG 2023, 31 (10):  116-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1251 Abstract ( 114 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (1263KB) ( 242 )   Save The issue of global warming has aroused widespread concern all over the world. Governments and companies around the world are actively working hard to achieve low-carbon emission reduction. However， the company must invest in energy conservation and emission reduction for green production， which occupies the company's funds for production activities， resulting in low enthusiasm for carbon emission reduction.To this end， the government has introduced a variety of preferential policies to increase the enthusiasm of enterprises to carry out carbon emission reduction activities.Considering consumers’ low-carbon preference and government subsidy policies， in the context of the coexistence of old-for-new and old-for-remanufacturing in the closed-loop supply chain， a single monopolistic manufacturer has constructed a two-stage differential pricing decision model.The effects of two government subsidies and consumer low-carbon preferences on manufacturer's emission reduction decisions， closed-loop supply chain performance and environmental benefits are analyzed， and the results of the study are simulated with numerical values.The results show that：Government subsidies help reduce the conditions for manufacturer to initiate emission reductions， and the worse the emission reduction properties of re-products， the higher the manufacturer’s enthusiasm for low-carbon emission reduction. Carbon emission reduction subsidy make the positive impact of consumers' low-carbon preferences on the environmental benefits of the supply chain more significant， while “trade-in” subsidy are more conducive for manufacturers to use consumers' low-carbon preferences to benefit from emission reduction and remanufacturing.The government implements carbon emission reduction subsidy for the manufacturer with higher levels of carbon emission reduction， and implements “trade-in” subsidy for the manufacturer with low levels of carbon emission reduction， which is conducive to the realization of efficient carbon emission supervision. When the government unit subsidy is low， the “trade-in” subsidy increases the manufacturer's investment in carbon emission reduction； when the government unit subsidy is high， the carbon emission subsidy makes the manufacturer's investment in carbon emission reduction higher. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Evaluation Method of Input-output Performance of Decision Making Units Considering Efficiency and Effect Xiao-lei WANG,Ren MU,Li ZHOU,Jin-quan DONG 2023, 31 (10):  128-135.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0455 Abstract ( 70 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (581KB) ( 77 )   Save On the basis of distinguishing the concepts of efficiency and performance， an input-output performance evaluation method is proposed that can reflect both input-output efficiency and the input-output effectiveness of decision-making unit （DMU）. Unlike the technical efficiency evaluation of DMUs， this method considers both the implementation of frontier technology and the achievement of the input-output goals of DMUs. On the basis of categorizing the influencing factors of input-output performance into technical factor， input allocation factor， and input scale factor， a performance-based comprehensive efficiency model， a performance-based technical efficiency model， and a performance-based input allocation efficiency model for DMUs are constructed. The solutions of these models provide the input-output performance values of the DMU， the contributions of various influencing factors in the formation process of the input-output performance of the DMU， and the performance improvement goals of the DMU based on different influencing factors， thus providing sufficient information for the DMU to choose performance improvement paths under the constraints of the actual environment. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analyzing the Financial Performance of Listed Companies in National Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Demonstration Base Based on Propensity Score Matching Yu ZHAO,Bing-bing HUANG,Yuan-hui DENG 2023, 31 (10):  136-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0433 Abstract ( 90 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (842KB) ( 199 )   Save The construction of mass entrepreneurship and innovation bases implemented in China since 2016 is an innovation incentive policy with Chinese characteristics. Taking the listed companies in the mass entrepreneurship and innovation bases as the research object， the economic benefits after the establishment of the national mass entrepreneurship and innovation bases from a unique perspective are revealed and evaluated. Based on China Stock Market & Accounting Research （CSMAR） database and RESSET database， 417 listed companies related to the mass entrepreneurship and innovation bases were collected from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate whether their overall financial performance has improved after the establishment of the mass entrepreneurship and innovation bases. Based on the measurement and internal comparison of the overall financial performance of the listed companies in the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base， the method of propensity score matching （PSM） combined with difference in difference （DID） is adopted to match the control samples for the listed companies in the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base in each year， and then the difference analysis is carried out to remove the influence of external factors， so as to get the net growth. The conclusions are as follows： （1） On the whole， since the establishment of the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base in 2016， although the overall financial performance of the listed companies in the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base has gradually declined， it has significantly improved compared with the control group； （2） Structurally， the financial performance of the listed companies in the enterprise Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base and the regional Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base has significantly improved compared with the control group， but the financial performance of the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base in universities and scientific research institutes has not significantly improved Compared with the control group， the effect is decreased； （3） The establishment of the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base significantly promoted the financial performance of the listed companies in the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base， and its net interest rate and the deduct non-net interest rate increased by 3.2% and 3.3% respectively. The research shows that the listed companies in the Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation Base can still maintain relative growth comparing to similarly companies under the condition of great economic downward pressure， which has a certain degree of driving effect on economic development. So it means that the construction of demonstration bases has been fruitful since 2016. This study has significant meaning to promote the theoretical research of innovation incentive policy， and provides empirical evidence for the evaluation of innovation incentive policy. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Program Cascade Optimization Scheduling Method Wu-liang PENG,Liang-wei CHEN 2023, 31 (10):  146-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2208 Abstract ( 87 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (615KB) ( 73 )   Save Multiple project scheduling at the operation level is an important part of multi-project management. Similarly， the program planning at the tactical level is also essential since it coordinates the relationships of projects. Based on the resource constrained multi-project scheduling problem， a new cascade scheduling method is proposed for programs to enhance linkages between the multi-project scheduling at operation level and program planning at the tactical level. The process of program planning and scheduling is analyzed， and a business process model is given for program cascade scheduling. The analytical target cascading （ATC） as a framework to construct the problem model of the program cascade scheduling problem， which minimizes the program duration under resource constraints and precedence relationship constraints within projects and between multiple projects. The algorithm for solving the program cascade optimization scheduling problem is proposed in combination with the ATC method. The algorithm runs from top to bottom and iteratively. The program at the tactical level allocates objectives and resources to each project at the operation level， and then each single project is scheduled independently. At the same time the feedback results are passed to the tactical level， where the program evaluates the scheduling results of the operation level. If the overall objectives of the program are not achieved， the program will coordinate the objectives and resources for all the projects again， and then reallocate goals and resources to each project. The process is repeated until the overall objective is achieved. A practical experiment is conducted comparing the proposed method with the traversal algorithm， and the results show that the method proposed in this paper has good computational efficiency and can meet the practical requirements of the program scheduling. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Incentive Strategy of Third-party Warranty Provider for Quality Information of Second-hand Electronic Products Zhen LU,Wei-na ZHANG 2023, 31 (10):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2019 Abstract ( 89 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (637KB) ( 250 )   Save With the rapid development of science and technology and economy， as well as the increasing demand for sustainable development and green environmental protection， the second-hand electronics market is growing rapidly. There is a serious asymmetry of product quality information between retailers and consumers， between retailers and the third-party warranty provider （3WP） in the second-hand electronics market. Accurate second-hand product quality information is difficult to obtain， and the high risk costs faced by consumers has seriously restricted the rapid and healthy development of the second-hand electronics market. Due to the decentralization of individual consumer decision-making， it is difficult to design an effective incentive strategy for the incentive subject， so as to urge retailers to provide real and accurate product quality information.In response to this problem， due to the advantages of 3WP such as high professionalism and better stability， 3WP is taken as the incentive subject. Based on the analysis of the impact of the authenticity and accuracy of the quality information of second-hand electronic products on the revenue of the 3WP， combined with the profit sharing contract mechanism， a principal-agent model considering moral hazard and adverse selection between 3WP and retailer is constructed， in view of the situation that retailers hide their quality inspection efforts and quality inspection information. The maximum principle is used to solve the problem， the optimal profit sharing contract is obtained， and an effective incentive strategy is designed to encourage retailers to disclose the real information of product quality.Through model analysis and example analysis of the problem， it is found that： （1） 3WP has homogenous with consumers for the authenticity and accuracy of the quality information of second-hand electronics disclosed by retailers. 3WP， as an incentive subject， can facilitate the design of second-hand electronic product quality information incentive strategies； （2） 3WP can encourage retailers to provide real and accurate quality information of second-hand electronic products by designing continuous contracts with fixed payment and profit sharing ratio；（3） The profit of 3WP and retailers decreases as the quality of second-hand electronic products decreases. Therefore， both 3WP and retailers prefer higher-quality second-hand electronic products；（4） Under the continuous incentive mechanism， 3WP can select retailers with lower marginal cost of quality testing to participate in cooperation by adjusting the design of incentive contracts， thereby achieving the effect of further promoting the healthy development of the second-hand electronics market. （5） The 3WP proposed in this paper has an incentive mechanism for the quality information of second-hand electronic products. For a certain scope of application， when the quality and price sensitivity coefficient of second-hand electronic products exceeds a certain threshold， the above-mentioned incentive mechanism will lose its effect. In response to this situation， it is necessary to seek new incentive mechanisms to achieve effective incentives for retailers.Numerical analysis based on the parameters that fit the actual conditions verifies that 3WP can provide effective incentives for the retailer’s true disclosure of product quality information by appropriately setting the incentive parameters in the sharing plan. It can enhance consumer confidence in the second-hand market and promote the healthy development of the second-hand market. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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“Good Shopping Decisions” and “Bad Shopping Decisions”: Research on the Quality Issues and Governance of Internet Celebrity Live Marketing Yan-lu GUO,Gong-li LUO,Gui-sheng HOU,Xiao-tong WANG 2023, 31 (10):  162-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1937 Abstract ( 435 )   HTML ( 45 )   PDF (1157KB) ( 785 )   Save With the development and expansion of short video live broadcast platforms， online celebrity live-streaming has become a new form of consumer shopping. However， in this process， the problems of poor quality of products with online celebrities and difficulty in protection have also emerged. Based on this background， a tripartite evolutionary game model is used to study the tripartite strategy selection and evolution of internet celebrities， short video live broadcast platforms， and consumers， and further discusses the impact of changes in live broadcast internet celebrities’ risk attitudes on their efforts to selling goods and select products. The innovations of this article are： ①The dual attributes of consumers and the live broadcast platform are considered. ②The benefits that consumers get from online celebrity products are divided into emotional benefits and functional benefits， which is more in line with the existing empirical evidence and facts， and the conclusion proves that emotional benefits will produce more “negative action” in certain situations. ③In the existing evolutionary game literature， few scholars discuss in detail the changes and transitions of equilibrium points under different parameter conditions， while parameter changes which leads to the transition of the equilibrium point often contains profound policy enlightenment.④The risk attitudes of Internet celebrities on the efforts to bring goods is also discussed，which further explains the causes of the quality problems of products brought by Internet celebrities. In addition， it is also found an interesting insight： consumers' strategy choices when facing the quality trouble of online celebrity live broadcast products will be affected by product types. The higher the functional benefit of the product， the more powerful consumers' motivation to defend their rights. This means that not all products are suitable for online celebrity live broadcast mode for sales.It is found that as the functional benefits that consumers obtain from online celebrity products increase， consumers are more inclined to choose active accountability， and as emotional benefits increase， consumers are more inclined to choose passive accountability， this kind of virtual intimacy on the emotional benefits brought by the products partly explain the phenomenon of the current proliferation of online celebrity product quality problems. Secondly， the influence of basic income parameters on the equilibrium state is far more significant than the influence of coefficient parameters. This should be the focus of supervision. Moreover， consumers’ strategy will be affected by product types when they face the quality problems of online celebrities’ live streaming products. The higher the product’s functional benefits， the greater the motivation for consumers to defend their rights. Finally， the risky attitudes of live streaming internet celebrities will affect their attitudes of product selection. And as the effort to bring goods， risk-averse Internet celebrities' efforts to sell goods and select products are lower than those under certain circumstances. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Reputation Mechanism of Peer-to-Peer Lending Industry from the Perspective of Tripartite Dynamic Game Xin-yu HOU,Shuai ZHANG,Shu-song BA 2023, 31 (10):  175-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2118 Abstract ( 115 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (792KB) ( 271 )   Save The lack of an effective reputation mechanism for online lending platforms makes it difficult for investors to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk platforms in online lending effectively. In theory， the reputation mechanism can be fulfilled through signaling mechanisms， yet does the fund depository service provided by commercial banks help lending platforms to formulate an effective reputation mechanism？ Can such a reputation mechanism alleviate information asymmetry and contribute to the development of the online lending industry？ The research perspective is extended from the personal reputation of investors to the reputation of online lending platforms and a tripartite game model including platforms， commercial banks， and investors is constructed to understand the role of reputation signals in the dynamic evolution of the game among the three parties. The core findings include： according to the static equilibrium model， the certification of platforms by commercial banks helps to form a reputation mechanism with positive feedback， and increasing the proportion of actively certified banks helps to promote self-regulation of platforms， which ultimately increases investors' returns. The evolutionary game model indicates that the key to forming a stable separation equilibrium lies in the capability of banks to play a strict screening role. The dynamic reputation mechanism affirms that increasing banks' reputation costs or raising banks' certification fees for platforms helps to improve the probability of commercial banks choosing the “active certification” behavioral strategy to achieve the separation equilibrium. A series of regression results based on the survival model suggests that access to bank depository services improves the survival rate of platforms. However， limited by the low proportion of actively certified banks and the majority as small and medium-sized commercial banks， the third-party certification role of banks is directly inhibited， and the screening role of reputation signals is impeded， which offers a new research perspective to understand the role of reputation mechanism in Internet finance. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Minmax Scheduling with Deterioration Effects and Common Due-window on a Single Machine Jing XUE,Ji-bo WANG 2023, 31 (10):  187-192.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2162 Abstract ( 104 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (731KB) ( 118 )   Save Scheduling problems with deterioration effects （time-dependent processing times） have received increasing attention nowadays. In a real production environment， the processing time of each job often depends on its starting time， for example， a processing machine or a tool loses its qualities， i.e.， the later of a job starts， the longer it takes to process it， which is deterioration effect. In this paper， on one hand， the single machine scheduling problem is studied with a time-dependent deterioration model： the processing time of a job is proportional to its starting time， i.e.，p_j=a_j(A+B{s}_j)， wherep_j，s_j，a_j represent respectively， the actual processing time， starting time and deteriorating rate of the job J_j， while A and B are given positive constants.On the other hand， under the Just-In-Time （JIT） system， jobs are required to be completed as close as possible to their assigned due-windows， otherwise， earliness or tardiness penalty would be incurred. Under common due-window put forward in this paper， the cost function is composed of earliness penalty， tardiness penalty， due-window starting time and size. The goal is to determine the starting time of the first job， schedule of jobs， due-window starting time and size so that the maximum cost function is minimized. It is showed that this minmax problem can be modeled by a linear programming. Some properties of the optimal solution are analyzed， which proved that the problem can be solved in polynomial time O(n)， where n is the number of jobs. Furthermore， a numerical example is given and the optimal solutions under different conditions are analyzed.Single machine minmax scheduling problem with deterioration effect and common due-window can impact the order in which the jobs are processed and thus affect production decisions. Therefore， it needs to take deterioration effect and due-window into consideration when making production decisions， and how to enhance production efficiency. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility on Technology Licensing and Product Pricing Zhen-hua YANG,Zheng-jie SUN,Ru LIU,Peng-jun GUO 2023, 31 (10):  193-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2169 Abstract ( 111 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (966KB) ( 304 )   Save In the past ten years， our country has attached great importance to the protection of intellectual property rights and has issued a series of policies and measures to improve the level of intellectual property protection. Intellectual property rights protection is the cornerstone of the socialistic market economic. To strengthen the protection and application capacity of intellectual property as well as improve the creative awareness of science and technology are significant develop our national economy， and encourage scientific research. Patent licensing and authorization contracts are key to turning intellectual property into actual productivity. However， unreasonable licensing contracts can easily lead to the breakdown of technology licensing cooperation， which can lead to patent infringement disputes. In this context， the following prololems will be studied： how should a technology provider choose a reasonable technology licensing agreement？ What impact will the corporate social responsibility preference have on technology licensing cooperation？ And what is the impact of corporate social responsibility on product distribution and consumer welfare and other issues？Considering a supply chain consisting of a technology provider， a branded manufacturer and a retailer， the technology license contracts designed by technology provider and the pricing strategies between the branded manufacturer and the retailer in the presence of corporate social responsibility preference and asymmetric information are investigated. The main work in this paper includes four parts. At first， the optimal licensing contract is proposed and the optimal pricing strategies under asymmetric information are analyzed. Second， on this basis， the effects of corporate social responsibility preference on the equilibrium are analyzed， and consequently the optimal pricing and contract design of supply chain members are compared under different types of market demand. Third， to address the value of corporate social responsibility， the changing of profit of supply chain members， consumer surplus and social welfare in different situations is compared. Finally， the optimal decisions of supply chain's enterprises， and the changing of consumer surplus and social welfare under symmetric information and asymmetric information are compared.The results show that， the model designs a patent license agreement which meets participation constraint and incentive compatibility constraint to screen the market demand information from the patent owner point of view. By solving the optimization problem， the optimal pricing， order quantity and licensing contract design for supply chain members are presented under asymmetric information， respectively. Further， it is found that the corporate social responsibility will not affect the technology provider’s choice of technology licensing contract. It will always choose a technology licensing contract in the form of a fixed fee or a technology licensing contract in the form of a “royalty commission + fixed licensing fee”. Moreover， the corporate social responsibility will lead to a reduction in product wholesale price and retail price and an increase in product demand， which is conducive to improving the profit level and consumer welfare of retailers and supply chain systems. Finally， the existence of asymmetric information will affect the equilibrium decision-making of the supply chain， leading to the loss of profits of technology providers， but brand manufacturers can obtain additional information rent. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Trade Credit on the Channel Choice of Capital Constrained Retailers under the Background of New Retail Hong-zhen LAI,Yan-ju ZHOU,Fu-qiang WANG 2023, 31 (10):  205-214.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2198 Abstract ( 133 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (723KB) ( 281 )   Save Under the background of new retail， more and more online retailers realize the seamless integration of online and offline by providing offline channel. However， the opening of offline physical stores also brings huge capital pressure to retailers in terms of inventory cost and store rent. In order to solve the problem of capital shortage， retailers try to seek trade credit financing from suppliers. Therefore， the supplier's trade credit greatly affects the retailer's channel decision. The profit models of retailers and suppliers are constructed and compared under three situations： online retailers with single online channel， opening offline physical stores with sufficient funds and opening offline physical stores with capital constraints but suppliers providing trade credit， so as to explores the impact of trade credit on channel selection of capital constrained retailers. The results show that when the online retailer has capital constraints， if the value of the degree of channel differentiation lower than a certain range after the offline channel is provided， the retailer's optimal strategy is to accept the trade credit contract and open offline physical stores when the supplier provides trade credit. This decision is also applicable to the situation where there is competition between retailers. At the same time， in order to ensure that suppliers have the motivation to provide trade credit， only if certain conditions are met， retailers can obtain trade credit financing from suppliers to open offline physical stores. Through the above analysis， it aims to provide meaningful management enlightenment for the financing decision and offline channel layout of online retailers with capital constraints. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Early Warning Mechanism of Network Public Opinion Crisis for Emergencies Based on ANP and Stochastic Petri Net Shi-hai TIAN,Chun-meng WANG,Wen-rui YANG 2023, 31 (10):  215-224.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2433 Abstract ( 117 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (1100KB) ( 343 )   Save Once an emergency network public opinion crisis breaks out， it will cause unrest among the people and hinder social stability. In order to forecast crisis contacts in a timely and effective manner， prevent the outbreak of public opinion， and pre-control the escalation of the situation， it is urgent to study crisis warning. Firstly， the early warning block indicators are established based on the network public opinion information attributes of emergencies in this paper， the weights are determined by ANP， and the three-level risk indicators which is from high to low risk （level I， II， and III） are obtained through the cumulative weight ratio in the ABC classification method thoughts. Secondly， the “cascade-parallel” early warning mechanism based on the framework of the early warning system is designed to monitor real-time dynamics and predict the future situation. Finally， taking the “new outbreak in Beijing” as an example， the early warning mechanism is simulated and analyzed by using the isomorphism of the Stochastic Petri Net and the Markov chain. The results show that the nonlinear relationship is found between the real-time value of level I and level II risk indicators and the probability of occurrence of public opinion crisis， as well as the growth rate of risk indicators， and the interactive relationship among the growth rate of level I， level II and level III has produced the critical surface of early warning. According to these analyses， the three-dimensional graph is drawn and the early warning start rule is formulated. In the rule， the interactive relationship among different indicators is considered， the early warning activation level from many aspects is judged， and the alert level is divided into three categories from small to large： yellow， orange and red， so as to provide decision-making reference for relevant departments to take targeted preventive measures in advance. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Emergency Management Decision of Large-scale Epidemic Based on Prospect Theory Wei-jian JIN,Hao XU,Chuan-feng HUANG,Cheng-zhi JIANG 2023, 31 (10):  225-233.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1541 Abstract ( 127 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (738KB) ( 278 )   Save the government has insufficient emergency response capacity in the face of large-scale epidemic， which is related to the lack of key factor identification. This study puts forward the decision-making method of identifying key factors of large-scale epidemic emergency management based on prospect theory. This method takes expert decision matrix as a reference point， and takes emergency management participants decision matrix as decision evaluation point. The decision evaluation point considers the decision psychology and knowledge structure of the evaluator， and adopts the evaluation values of real numbers and interval numbers. The decision-making process is transformed by binary semantic sets to ensure the consistency of information. Then， the initial direct correlation matrix of prospect theory is established， and 5 key facts are obtained by decision steps. Moreover， the decision-making results are compared with the method based on the experts’ evaluation， expertise and emergency management participants’ evaluation， the new decision-making method. Finally， this study puts forward decision-making suggestions on perfecting the direct reporting mechanism of epidemic response， enhancing the reserve capacity of materials， improving the dispatching capacity of materials， improving the emergency decision-making and command capacity， and strengthening the grid prevention and control capacity at the grass-roots level. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Prediction Method for Gastric Cancer Survivability Based on an Improved LightGBM Ensemble Model Yi FENG,Du-juan WANG,Zhi-neng HU,Shao-ze CUI 2023, 31 (10):  234-244.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1628 Abstract ( 105 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (1066KB) ( 230 )   Save The prediction of gastric cancer survivability is one of the important works in the gastric cancer prognosis， which can provide decision-making support for the doctor by mining important features affecting the survivability of gastric cancer patients and accurately predicting survivability. So far， the accuracy of survivability prediction of gastric cancer is insufficient， and the interpretability of prediction models is lack. Therefore， a gastric survivability prediction method called SGPL-LightGBM based on improved LightGBM is proposed to predict the survivability of patients with gastric cancer and interpret the prediction model. The stability-based feature selection method is carried out to determine the optimal feature subset， thereby reducing the computational overhead and improving the accuracy of the prediction. After that， the intelligent optimization algorithm （Genetic algorithm） is adopted to optimize the important hyperparameters in LightGBM （Light gradient boosting machine） to further improves the performance of gastric cancer survivability prediction model. The important features of gastric survivability prediction model are analyzed by PDP （Partial dependence plot） and LIME （Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations）， which explain the effect of influencing features on the predicted response of SGPL-LightGBM. Finally， the numeral experiments are conducted on real gastric dataset， and the experimental results indicate that the proposed ensemble classification prediction method SGPL-LightGBM has better accuracy and interpretability in gastric cancer survivability prediction， which can provide effective decision support for doctors to develop a treatment plan. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method Based on q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Set and Reference Ideal Method Hao-lun WANG,Fa-ming ZHANG,WAN-YAN Xiao-pan,Xue HAN 2023, 31 (10):  245-253.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1456 Abstract ( 82 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (641KB) ( 223 )   Save Among traditional decision methods， such as TOPSIS and VIKOR， the maximum or minimum value is considered to be the best choice， but the best choice may occur between the maximum and minimum value in the real world， such as the temperature suitable for plant growth. Meanwhile， q-rung orthopair fuzzy set （q-ROFS） can help decision-makers express their opinions freely and comprehensively in the face of complex decision-making problems.To solve the problems of unreasonable determination of ideal solution and rank reversal in existing decision-making methods， a multi-criteria decision-making method based on q-ROFS and reference ideal method （RIM） is proposed. Firstly， the q-rung orthopair fuzzy （q-ROF） possibility degree and q-ROFS cross entropy are defined respectively， and their related properties are discussed； Secondly， the traditional RIM is extended in the q-ROF environment， and a multi-criteria decision-making model based on q-ROFRIM is built， where the q-ROF possibility degree is used to determine the optimal weight of the criteria， and the q-ROF cross entropy， as a measure of the information difference degree of q-ROF， is used to replace the distance measure in the traditional RIM. Finally， an example analysis illustrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition， comparison with previous methods shows that the proposed method not only makes the decision process more scientific and reasonable， but also avoids the rank reversal problem. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Causal Network Construction Method Based on Chinese Quality Problem Solving Data Yu-bin WANG,Yan-zhong DANG,Zhao-guang XU 2023, 31 (10):  254-265.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2414 Abstract ( 121 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (1394KB) ( 154 )   Save With the development of economy and technology， people's living standards continue to improve， consumers have higher requirements for the quality and the variety of products. Correspondingly， the quality problems become more and more complicated to solve. Cause analysis is the key to quality problem-solving. However， the causal relationship is usually complex and dynamic. It is challenging to analyze the cause of the problem in-depth only by personal experience. Front-line staffs record the quality problem-solving process， forming the Quality Problem Solving Data （QPS Data） which contains a large amount of knowledge accompanied by the causality of quality problems. However， non-standard records result in non-standard descriptive terms and the mixed causal structure of data. The characteristics mentioned above make it is difficult to apply directly since the data containing much empirical causal knowledge. In order to help improve the effectiveness of cause analysis by utilizing the causal knowledge contained in QPS Data， firstly， relying on the analysis of the characteristics of QPS Data， a bottom-up method is propased to extract domain vocabulary layer by layer from QPS Data， which solves the problem of descriptive terms being non-standardized. Secondly， by analyzing the causal syntactic pattern， a causal relation extraction method based on rule matching is proposed to solve the problem of mixed causal structures. Then， a causal network is constructed to realize the reuse of causal knowledge in QPS Data. Finally， using the quality problem-solving data recorded by an automobile manufacturing enterprise in the process of body-in-white stamping production， a causal network with practical application significance is constructed. And the validity， rationality， and scientificity of the proposed methods are verified. This research can provide extensive and comprehensive support for front-line staff to analyze the cause of the quality problem， help enterprises improve the efficiency of quality problem-solving， and provide enterprises with knowledge management methods for reference. Meanwhile， it contributes to the theories and methods of quality management and knowledge management. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Decision of Fresh Produce Supply Chain with Price Control Power in Supermarkets Yan ZHANG,Jin-jin MOU,Shu-yun WANG 2023, 31 (10):  266-275.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0137 Abstract ( 134 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (903KB) ( 292 )   Save The fight for supply chain control powers has been a common problem between supply chain members， which makes supply chains unstable and leads to the loss of both parties' profits. The control power has a significant impact on product pricing， ordering quantity of the supply chain， and the cooperation performance of fresh product supply chain members. So， the allocation of supply chain control powers among different members is of great significance to the sustainability of the supply chain cooperation.Assuming that a two-level fresh product supply chain composed of one fresh product supplier and one large supermarket. The supermarket decides the selling price according to its own market positioning， consumer purchasing psychology and product market demand. At the same time， the supermarket will make certain freshness-keeping efforts to ensure the sales of fresh products. The supermarket has the supply chain control power which not only determines the selling price， but also controls the decision-making order. The selling price is regarded as a function of control power， and the demand is affected by the price， freshness-keeping efforts and random variable. A game model under the decentralized and centralized is constructed to maximize profits. The optimal control power， fresh-keeping effort and order quantity are solved respectively by Stackelberg game and cooperative game.This study introduces the parameter of supply chain control power into fresh product supply chain models. Some computational studies are conducted to investigate the impacts of price coefficient of control power and sensitivity coefficient of freshness-keeping efforts on the profits of supplier， supermarket， and the overall supply chain under decentralized and centralized system， and the effect of the residual value subsidy on coordinated supply chain member’s expected profit.Some significant conclusions are obtained. Firstly， the optimal control power exists objectively， and has a reverse relationship with the coefficient of control power. Supermarkets should improve the ability of influencing product pricing through their own reputation， public praise and service， instead of just competing for control power； Secondly， the profit， order quantity and the level of freshness-keeping efforts of centralized model is higher than that of decentralized model. But the profit of the supermarket will decrease. The residual value subsidy mechanism can solve the problem of double marginal effect of supply chain and realize Pareto improvement of supply chain members' income. Thirdly， holiday， weather， consumer psychology and other random factors will affect the market demand of fresh product. The managers of supermarkets can make appropriate measures with their supply chain control power to cope with changes in market demand.Our contribution lies in this paper introduces the endogenous variable of control power and builds the supply chain cooperation based on the control mode. The effects of control power and consumer freshness sensitivity coefficients on the optimal decision-making and system profit are analyzed. And it provides a certain reference for the supermarkets’ sales practice of fresh products. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Forecast Information Sharing on the Group Purchasing Strategy in Pharmaceutical Dual-channel Supply Chain Lu WU,Qiang GUO,Jia-jia NIE,Fu-chang LI 2023, 31 (10):  276-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1590 Abstract ( 145 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (921KB) ( 295 )   Save In recent years， the increasing penetration of social networks has changed the way people retrieve health information and seek medical treatment， and online medical services have improved the accessibility of quality medical resources. To effectively accelerate the development of “Internet Plus Medicine”， the reform of the health system needs to take the group procurement of medicines as an important element. Healthcare group purchasing organization （GPO） is considered to play an integral role in the healthcare supply chain by keeping prices low and helping all members of the healthcare system achieve their objectives. A two-channel pharmaceutical supply chain consisting of a pharmaceutical enterprise， a GPO and multiple medical institutions are investigated. The impact of whether medical institutions share forecast information with pharmaceutical enterprise on their purchasing decisions is considered， and finally the optimal purchasing strategies are discussed. The result shows that the prediction accuracy and network operation cost of pharmaceutical enterprise are the key factors influencing the procurement strategies. In the case of medical institutions without information sharing， if the prediction accuracy of medical institutions is too low， pharmaceutical enterprise tends to adopt the regarded as decentralized group procurement； If the prediction accuracy is high enough， pharmaceutical enterprise is inclined to adopt the group procurement. For medical institutions， the procurement strategies are opposite. In the case of medical institutions with information sharing， if patients' acceptance of online channel is large， it is the same as that of pharmaceutical enterprise without information sharing. For medical institutions， when the network operation cost of medical enterprises and patients' acceptance of online channel are small， which are contrary to the condition without information sharing. In summary， the effect of forecast information sharing on the group purchasing strategy in the pharmaceutical dual-channel supply chain is studied by employing the game theory. The findings can provide academic and practical insights for group purchasing under incomplete information． Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics