Abstract:

the government has insufficient emergency response capacity in the face of large-scale epidemic， which is related to the lack of key factor identification. This study puts forward the decision-making method of identifying key factors of large-scale epidemic emergency management based on prospect theory. This method takes expert decision matrix as a reference point， and takes emergency management participants decision matrix as decision evaluation point. The decision evaluation point considers the decision psychology and knowledge structure of the evaluator， and adopts the evaluation values of real numbers and interval numbers. The decision-making process is transformed by binary semantic sets to ensure the consistency of information. Then， the initial direct correlation matrix of prospect theory is established， and 5 key facts are obtained by decision steps. Moreover， the decision-making results are compared with the method based on the experts’ evaluation， expertise and emergency management participants’ evaluation， the new decision-making method. Finally， this study puts forward decision-making suggestions on perfecting the direct reporting mechanism of epidemic response， enhancing the reserve capacity of materials， improving the dispatching capacity of materials， improving the emergency decision-making and command capacity， and strengthening the grid prevention and control capacity at the grass-roots level.

Key words: emergency management, DEMATEL, prospect theory, epidemic