Table of Content

20 June 2023, Volume 31 Issue 6 Previous Issue   

Articles

Select

Artificial Intelligence and Management Transformation YANG Shan-lin, LI Xiao-jian, ZHANG Qiang, JIAO Jian-ling, YANG Chang-hui 2023, 31 (6):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.06.001 Abstract ( 1394 )   PDF (2837KB) ( 1381 )   Save Since the advent of deep learning, artificial intelligence has made tremendous progress, gradually moving from pure academic research to large-scale deployment. In particular, a series of application-level AI content generation algorithms such as text generation, image generation, and 3D model generation emerged in 2022, indicating that AI has first acquired the ability to produce digital content and is gradually breaking through many barriers, such as logical reasoning and common sense cognition, moving towards general AI. Based on a review of the development history and recent trends in AI, it focuses on exploring the impact of AI technology on the research paradigms of the natural and social sciences in this paper, analyzing the development laws of AI technology itself and its integration with domain-specific sciences. Finally, the transformative impact of AI on the management is analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Knight Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment CHEN Qiang, XU Wan-zi 2023, 31 (6):  12-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0067 Abstract ( 248 )   PDF (2181KB) ( 310 )   Save The previous studies focused on the impacts of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment are equivocal. Several studies find the positive impact while the others find the negative impact. There have been some explanations for the contradictory phenomena, such as different industries, different foreign exchange policies or lack of adequate measurement. It attempts to give another reason in this paper which has not been proposed yet. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Strategies of Retailer Introducing Poverty Alleviation Products FENG Chun, HE Zheng, GUO Qian-yun, ZHANG Yi 2023, 31 (6):  25-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0227 Abstract ( 234 )   PDF (2484KB) ( 367 )   Save “Poverty alleviation through consumption” is a form of poverty reduction whereby all sectors of society can help increase the income of poor individuals by consuming products and services from impoverished areas. It is an important way for social entities to participate in poverty reduction. Retailers can promote the establishment of stable supply chains for poverty alleviation products by introducing and selling such products. One of the motivations behind this behavior is to increase profits. Retailers can adopt different product and pricing strategies, which can have varying impacts on supply chain participants and the effectiveness of poverty alleviation through consumption. The objective of this paper is to study these strategies and their impact to gain management insights. Currently, there are few literature resources on poverty alleviation through consumption, most of which focus on qualitative research. It aims to model the market characteristics of poverty alleviation products for the first time and illustrate the impact of moral attributes of poverty alleviation products on market equilibrium. The significance of this study lies in enhancing the theoretical foundation of poverty alleviation through consumption. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Multi-stage Risk Contagion Mechanism and Empirical Study Based on Spillover Effect FAN Hong, CHEN Nai-xi 2023, 31 (6):  39-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1572 Abstract ( 177 )   PDF (3143KB) ( 212 )   Save Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, preventing the occurrence of financial risks has become an important financial goal of all countries. At present, many empirical studies and simulation experiments have found the phenomenon of risk contagion in the banking network system and studied the relationship between network structure and risk contagion, but the mechanism of risk contagion is still unclear. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

New Product Operation Strategy under a Brand Merchant’s Direct Channel: Joint Decision on Quality, Price, and Channel Selection JIANG Xuan, WANG Ting, DENG Shi-ming 2023, 31 (6):  49-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1599 Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (2062KB) ( 405 )   Save Nowadays, the channel expansion of internet retail brand merchant from online to offline is common phenomenon in the ecommerce industry. The brand merchant with online and offline direct channels can choose to release the new product through either a single channel or dual channels. It focuses on the optimal strategy of new product release before and after the brand merchant’s channel expansion in this paper, and the optimal combination of product quality, price and channel selection strategy and related factors that affect the optimal strategy when the brand merchant introduces the new product are studied. It is found that there are a variety of strategy combinations for the new product introduction, and the optimal one is affected by the factor such as the uncertainty of customers’ perception of the new product, online shopping revenue, and the channel threshold profit; The strategy of using dual channels to release the new product simultaneously is not always the best, and it may become the optimal one if and only if it matches the corresponding new product quality and price strategy; Compared to the online channel, since the offline channel could deliver more accurate information of the new product value to the customers, hence the brand merchant is more inclined to release new products with high quality and high price through the offline channel; For the internet retail brand merchant, if the digital attribute of the products they operate is weak, channel expansion will bring much benefit to them. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Multi-scale Combination Forecasting of Interval Exchange Rate with Hybrid Secondary Decomposition Driven by Unstructured Data LIU Jin-pei, LUO Rui, CHEN Hua-you, TAO Zhi-fu 2023, 31 (6):  60-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0194 Abstract ( 181 )   PDF (3950KB) ( 204 )   Save The foreign exchange rate has the characteristics of non-linear, non-stationary, continuous change, etc. The traditional forecasting method of point value will lose its fluctuation information. In addition, the single data decomposition method has its inherent defects, there is the problem of incomplete decomposition, and the choice of decomposition method is uncertain. At the same time, massive unstructured data on the Internet provide a large amount of effective information for exchange rate prediction, but there is still a lack of systematic research on how to use unstructured data for exchange rate interval prediction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on Optimized Allocating the Unified Credit Line of Focal Firm for Low-carbon Financing of Small and Medium-sized Suppliers MENG Qing-chun, PAN Jian, WANG Zi-ran, RONG Xiao-xia 2023, 31 (6):  71-81.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1871 Abstract ( 211 )   PDF (1445KB) ( 385 )   Save Facing the environment of carbon market transactions and carbon quotas, there are many small and medium-sized suppliers with low-carbon financing needs in the same supply chain. However, they are prevented by the higher cost of external financing to develop low-carbon. At the same time, the stability of the entire supply chain is also affected. This paper attempts to solve the problem of internal financing in the supply chain when there are financing needs for multiple small and medium-sized suppliers in the same supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on the Systemic Risk of Funds Based on the Network of Common Asset Holdings WANG Hu, LI Shou-wei, MA Yu-yin, LIU Xiao-xing 2023, 31 (6):  82-90.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2092 Abstract ( 241 )   PDF (2417KB) ( 483 )   Save Based on common asset holdings of funds and the idea of DebtRank, a risk contagion model is constructed on the base of common asset holdings of funds, and the relationship between fund network centrality and fund systemic risk and its influencing mechanism are analyzed by using the data of semiannual fund shareholdings from 2007 to 2020. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between fund network centrality and fund systemic risk. This conclusion is still valid after considering the potential endogenous problems and relevant robustness tests. The fund network centrality will increase the systemic risk of the fund by increasing the investment similarity, and the influence mechanism will be affected by the fund performance, which is more significant in the fund with better performance. The heterogeneity test shows that the positive effect of fund network centrality on the systemic risk of large-scale funds is more obvious, but there is no significant difference among the funds with different investment styles. In addition，it is found that in recent years, a large amount of money flow into the stock market through funds, resulting in a significant increase in the impact of stock market volatility on the fund system. It enriches and expands the related research of fund systemic risk in China in this paper. The results are helpful to further understand the influence mechanism of fund systemic risk in China, and provide a certain theoretical basis and practical guidance for preventing fund market risk. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Decision-Making of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Based on a Combination Strategy of Preselling Financing and Bank Loan WANG Zhi-hong, SHI Jin-yu, GUO Jian-feng, WU Yi 2023, 31 (6):  91-99.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0130 Abstract ( 154 )   PDF (2215KB) ( 234 )   Save The combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan is a financing mode for upstream manufacturers to solve the problem of production capital shortage and to ensure the stable operation of product supply and supply chain. Considering the risk aversion behavior of retailers, the supply chain optimization decision under the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan is studied. First, the three-stage Stackelberg game between the capital-constrained manufacturer and the risk-averse retailer is analyzed, namely, “manufacturer’s preselling discount decision-retailer’s pre-purchase decision-manufacturer’s production decision”. Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is used to describe the retailer’s risk aversion behavior, and then the supply chain decision-making models are constructed and optimized. The optimal preselling discount of the manufacturer, the optimal production and the optimal pre-purchase quantity of the retailer are obtained. The interaction between the decisions is further discussed. The influences of risk aversion coefficient, bank interest rate and retailer’s stock-out cost on the optimal decision-making of the supply chain are analyzed. The results show that: manufacturers can set the preselling discount to encourage risk-averse retailers to participate in preselling, and determine the dynamic combination of preselling financing and bank loan. The retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity decreases with the increase of preselling discount, and presents the characteristics of piecewise function; The retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity does not always decrease with the increase of risk aversion coefficient, and its monotonicity is also affected by the range of manufacturer’s preselling discount proportion. When the manufacturer only chooses preselling financing, its optimal production is directly proportional to the retailer’s optimal pre-purchase quantity. When the manufacturer chooses the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan, the optimal production is a fixed quantity. This study provides scientific support for manufacturers to choose reasonable financing methods to solve the problem of capital shortage when facing the combination strategy of preselling financing and bank loan. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Early Prediction and Warning of International Trade Risks Based on Wavelet Decomposition and ARIMA-GRU Hybrid Model YI Jing-tao, YAN Huan 2023, 31 (6):  100-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1174 Abstract ( 224 )   PDF (2112KB) ( 386 )   Save The uncertainty of the global economy has largely intensified the international trade risk. An early prediction and warning system for international trade risk is designed based on the trade competitiveness index. Considering the non-linearity, non-stationarity, strong volatility and relatively small sample size of international trade data, a hybrid prediction model with autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) after wavelet decomposition is proposed. Specifically, the trade time series data is decomposed into high-frequency sequence data and low-frequency sequence data through wavelet transform. According to the characteristics of data, the ARIMA-GRU hybrid model is constructed, and the prediction results of each frequency data are ensembled together to get the final prediction result of the trade competitiveness index. In addition, an early warning mechanism is proposed to facilitate the practical management of trade risks. To verify the effectiveness, applicability and practicability of the early prediction and warning system, electromechanical products are taken as an example to conduct the empirical analysis. Comparing with other commonly used single models and hybrid models such as LSTM, GRU and RNN, the results indicate that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy, demonstrating satisfactory performance in long-term and short-term trade risk prediction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Coherent Mean-CVaR Credibilistic Portfolio Selection ZHANG Peng, CUI Shu-lin, LI Jing-xin 2023, 31 (6):  111-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0654 Abstract ( 158 )   PDF (2880KB) ( 375 )   Save Investor’s decision is influenced by investor’s attitude. Considering investor’s attitude to the stock market, the return is regarded as a fuzzy variable, constructing a coherent mean-CVaR credibilistic portfolio model with the constraints of V-type transaction cost, borrowing constraints. The model is a linear programming problem which can be solved by using the pivoting algorithm of linear programming. Finally, Fama and French factor models are used to select sample stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market to construct the portfolio. Both in sample test and out of sample test show that, investor’s different attitude towards the stock market affects the performance of portfolio significantly. Therefore, it is helpful for individual and institutional investors to make reasonable investment decisions by correctly evaluating investor’s attitudes towards the stock market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Regional Difference of Microfinance Clients and Microfinance Mission Drift LI Li-ping, WU Si-jian, ZHOU Yong, 2023, 31 (6):  122-130.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0681 Abstract ( 110 )   PDF (1322KB) ( 212 )   Save MFIs’ mission drift may be caused by regional difference. Our general understanding of mission drift is that MFIs choose wealthy clients over poor ones. The problem of mission drift caused by the regional difference which is covered by the conventional mission drift is analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on the Container Freight Index Insurance for Medium, Small and Micro Export Enterprises Cost Control YU Fang-ping, ZHANG Kai-li, KUANG Hai-bo, LIU Yu 2023, 31 (6):  131-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1771 Abstract ( 156 )   PDF (2229KB) ( 248 )   Save In recent years, container freight has fluctuated greatly, which has significantly increased transportation costs for many medium, small and micro export enterprises and eroded their meager profits. A kind of container freight index insurance for small, medium and micro export enterprises cost control is innovatively designed in this paper, which can well solve the freight risk problem. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

An Optimized Coordination Model of Freshness-Keeping Efforts and Shelf Service for Fresh Produce Supply Chain FANG Xin, YUAN Feng-jiao, CAI Ji-rong 2023, 31 (6):  142-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1787 Abstract ( 175 )   PDF (2089KB) ( 354 )   Save The loss of fresh produce after post-production is very high, and both the whole life-cycle freshness keeping efforts and shelf service effort can effectively improve the fresh produce supply chain performance. However, firms need to weight the cost investments and benefit returns associated with efforts. In this paper, the market demand is assumed to be a joint function of freshness-keeping levels and shelf service levels. A mathematical model and numerical simulation are used to investigate the fresh produce supply chain's globally optimal decision-making and system coordination. First, a centralized decision model is constructed, which provides a reference benchmark for the decentralized decisions of suppliers and retailers; then, a sequential game model of suppliers and retailers is discussed; finally, a coordinative contract is constructed from a firm Pareto improvement perspective. The investigation shows that the global optimal freshness-keeping levels and the shelf service levels exist uniquely, but each participating firm is motivated to deviate from the globally optimal decision from its own profit-optimal perspective. Therefore, a coordinated contract with both revenue sharing and cost-bearing attributes is designed. The decision-making behavior of the firms converges to the globally optimal decision of the supply chain, and each firm achieves Pareto improvement. Parametric sensitivity analysis of optimal profit shows that optimal global profit is negatively correlated with some key parameters (such as price sensitivity coefficient, price retail price, natural decay coefficient, and lead time). However, the optimal global profit is positively correlated with the freshness sensitivity coefficient and shelf life service sensitivity coefficient. The results indicate that moderately reducing prices or inducing consumers to reduce price sensitivity is a way to improve system profits. Meanwhile, increasing the speed of fresh produce transfer in the logistics system is also beneficial to improve overall profits. The management insights provide a reference for reducing post-production losses of fresh agricultural products and improving the profitability of the supply chain system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Sales Mode Selection of Fresh E-commerce with Asymmetric Production Cost Information LIN Qiang, MA Jia-xin, CHEN Liang-jun, LIN Xiao-gang, ZHOU Yong-wu 2023, 31 (6):  153-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1797 Abstract ( 249 )   PDF (1596KB) ( 561 )   Save In recent years, the tremendous growth of the e-commerce industry are witnessed by us, and a large number of manufacturers who produce fresh products have started to sell through online platforms (e.g., JD.com and Tmall). In practice, the online platforms can choose to act as online marketplaces for the manufacturers (i.e., agency selling). Under this selling format, the manufacturers participate on the platforms by paying a proportional fee and directly sell their products to customers at a selling price. Besides, the platforms can also act as resellers for the manufacturers (i.e., reselling). Under this selling format, the manufacturers sell their products to the platforms at a wholesale price and then the platforms sell the products to customers at a selling price. This raises an important question of which selling format should both the online platforms and the manufacturers adopt. In fresh-product e-commerce supply chains, the upstream manufacturers often need to determine the optimal production levels by incurring costs, and the costs are uncertain to the downstream online platforms. The platforms thus cannot infer the qualification rate and will carry out sampling test to improve the quality level of the products, although the platforms fail to find out all unqualified products. Moreover, if the agency selling (reselling) format is employed, the manufacturers (online platforms) would improve the freshness of the products by incurring costs as much as possible. It is investigated how the production costs’ information asymmetry and the accuracy of the sampling test affect the selling format selections of the platforms and manufacturers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on Cross-channel Return Policy for Online and Offline Retailers ZHAO Ju, ZHANG Bin, MIN Jie 2023, 31 (6):  164-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0854 Abstract ( 249 )   PDF (2360KB) ( 310 )   Save Nowadays, with the online shopping is chosen by more consumers, retail companies are increasely plagued by the high product return rate and return cost. At the same time, with the development of new retail mode, more and more dual-channel retailers have begun to open up omni-channel and implement the online purchase and offline return strategy (BORS), such as Suning and Uniqlo. Some single-channel retailers have also begun to seek cross-channel cooperation between companies to gain a favorable market position. For example, the channel integration of JD.com and Wuxing Electronics has developed cooperation in the direction of coordinated returns. In addition, Wal-Mart has helped the third-party sellers on its online platform provide offline return services. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Electricity Price Reform and Manager Behavior of Generation Companies: Based on Multi-objective Principal-agent Model HUANG Yi-xiang, YU Sha, PU Yong-jian 2023, 31 (6):  174-184.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1072 Abstract ( 115 )   PDF (2621KB) ( 93 )   Save On March 15, 2015, the Chinese government began a new round of reform of the power system, which focused on the orderly liberalization of competitive links outside the distribution, with the aim of reducing market electricity prices by “breaking the monopoly and introducing competition”. After the release of the power selling side, the proportion of China’s electricity market transactions has been increasing year by year. As of June 2019, market-oriented trading electricity accounted for 32.4% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society and 58.3% of the electricity consumption of the operating industry, releasing more than 210 billion yuan of reform dividends accumulatively. The reform of electricity marketization has greatly reduced the energy use costs of some enterprises and made a significant contribution to the strategic goal of China's steady macro-economic growth. However, behind the sharp fall in the market electricity prices, it was accompanied by widespread losses of power generation enterprises. In 2018, the total profit of power grid enterprises decreased by 24.3% compared with the previous year, while the losses of thermal power generation enterprises were as high as 43.8%. Why do power companies sacrifice their profits to reduce market electricity prices? Is it driven by the effective introduction of market competition, or is it due to other reasons? And how to prevent the financial risks caused by improper positioning? These questions are related to the promotion of China's power market deepening reform strategy, which needs to be studied and answered urgently. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on the Influence of Store Brand Introduction on Participant Decision Making in Supply Chain Under Peer Influence Effect JIAO Yuan-yuan, LI Yu-hang 2023, 31 (6):  185-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1490 Abstract ( 143 )   PDF (1815KB) ( 167 )   Save Store brands have a large market share in both the U.S. and European markets, and especially after the 2008 economic crisis, store brands have expanded rapidly due to their “cheap and cheerful” characteristics. In recent years, more and more retailers in the Chinese market have also started to introduce store brands. In recent years, more and more retailers in the Chinese market have also started to introduce store brands. For example, Joybuy's mother and baby brand “Original care”, NetEase’s “Lifease” and so on. The retailer originally acted as a distributor in the supply chain, but when it introduced store brands, it became a competitor to national brand manufacturers. So what factors influence a retailer's introduction of store brands, what advantages do existing national brands have, and how do these advantages influence a retailer's decision to introduce a store brand? References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Study on the Formation Mechanism of Synergistic Drive to Upgrade the Modernization Level of Industrial Chain and Supply Chain： Based on BP-SVM Joint Optimization Model WANG Jing 2023, 31 (6):  196-206.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0148 Abstract ( 197 )   PDF (1662KB) ( 252 )   Save The international economic environment is complex and volatile, and the global industrial chain and supply chain are adjusting at an accelerating pace. From the research perspective of new development in the new era, the characteristics of the modernization level of industrial chain and supply chain are defined as follows: “two-chain” integration of new economy and new drivers driven by scientific and technological cooperation, “two-chain” integration of new cycle and new iteration driven by interest cooperation, and “two-chain” integration of new manufacturing and new services driven by market cooperation. Based on the BP-SVM joint optimization model, the level evaluation of the collaborative drive industry chain and supply chain network is studied, and the evaluation index system is established. The numerical example is taken to verify the unique advantages of the model. It is found that the risk of game behavior on the network of the industrial chain and supply chain driven by the synergism can be measured by the entropy value, and the comprehensive benefits created by the synergism driven by the modernization system of the whole industrial chain and supply chain can be greatly improved. It further puts forward the formation mechanism and policy suggestions to promote the modernization level of industrial chain and supply chain. The research shows that: growth mechanism construction is conducive to improving the important driving force and endogenous driving force of economic and industrial structure adjustment, choice mechanism construction is conducive to establishing the main means and important direction of enterprise transformation, iteration and upgrading, and constraint mechanism construction is conducive to strengthening the service improvement and management innovation of industrial chain and supply chain governance. The research of this paper provides a valuable new Angle for understanding the internal mechanism of upgrading the modernization level of industrial chain and supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on Urban Spatial Correlation and Economic Spillover Effect Under the Influence of Rapid Transportation Network: Take Aviation and High-speed Rail Networks as Examples WANG Yu-fei, XU Hai-dong, WANG Guang-hui 2023, 31 (6):  207-220.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1424 Abstract ( 183 )   PDF (2572KB) ( 291 )   Save As two major modes of transportation, aviation and high-speed railway complement each other to form a modern rapid transportation network, which promotes the adjustment of economic pattern and the spillover of regional economy by changing the spatial correlation between cities. The influence of aviation and high-speed railway network on the overall pattern and internal structure of urban spatial correlation is analyzed, and empirically the relationship and difference between urban spatial correlation and economic spilt under the influence of aviation and high-speed railway network is tested, based on the panel data of Chinese cities at the prefecture-level and above, and using G2SLS tool variable estimation and other methods. The results show that the spatial association of cities under the influence of aviation network has obvious leap and rank. Under the influence of high-speed railway network, the urban spatial association has distinct geographical and adjacency attributes. Airlines and high-speed network of urban spatial correlation between the broader, contribution to its economic output, the more obvious, the excessive concentration of aviation network center close to the center of the urban space correlation degree and there is a negative correlation relationship between economic output, but the relationship is not stable in the high-speed network, cities and the high-speed rail network in aviation hub and control of the network capacity has important significance to the economic development. In the future, to strengthen the spatial relationship of Chinese cities and promote the national economic growth, it is necessary to conduct policy coordination in shortening the space and time distance, reducing regional segmentation and increasing network density. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Similar Cases Extraction and Amount Estimation of Person Subjected to Execution Concealing Property Based on Similarity of Heterogeneous Information WU Shuang-sheng, LIN Jie, HUANG Dong-hong, ZHANG Zhen-yu 2023, 31 (6):  221-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1789 Abstract ( 103 )   PDF (1003KB) ( 55 )   Save With the rapid economic and social development and the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, the number of lawsuits has also increased substantially. During the execution of the case, some persons subjected to execution used various means to conceal their property, which resulted in the failure to actively perform the obligations established in the effective legal documents. Aiming at the court enforcement problems such as the prominent phenomenon of the concealed property of the person subject to execution, the difficulty of finding the property to be executed, and the inefficient retrieval method of similar cases, the case-based reasoning method is applied to the field of judicial enforcement. A method for extracting similar cases of concealed property of the person subject to execution and estimating the amount of concealed property is designed based on case-based reasoning in a heterogeneous information environment. First of all, qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out on the case of concealed property of the person subjected to execution, and a multi-dimensional characteristic system of the case of concealed property of the person subjected to execution is established. Based on the CBR’s case representation thought, the representation method of the concealed property case of the person subjected to execution is given. Secondly, taking into account the heterogeneity of the representation form of case attribute information, a calculation model for the similarity and attribute weight of heterogeneous information such as precise symbols, precise numbers, interval numbers, and hesitant fuzzy linguistic is further constructed. By setting the similarity threshold between the target case and the historically concluded case, a similar case set of hidden property cases is established, and the retrieval and extraction of similar cases are realized. On this basis, a model for estimating the amount of concealed property of the person subject to execution based on the similarity of heterogeneous information is further constructed. Finally, the methods of this paper are compared and analyzed with the existing methods, and the feasibility and effectiveness of similar case extraction algorithm and amount estimation model are verified through a specific example. The research results provide decision-making support for the executive judges in identifying hidden property behaviors, formulating implementation plans, and guaranteeing judgments in similar cases, improving the overall quality of similar cases and the efficiency of execution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

How does Agglomeration Affect Entrepreneurial Activities in the North and South? Evidence from High Frequency Full Enterprise Big Data ZHAO Hui, ZHANG Tao, TANG Ke 2023, 31 (6):  231-240.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1610 Abstract ( 175 )   PDF (1473KB) ( 286 )   Save Entrepreneurship can be used to stimulate the economic vitality of the north and solve the north-south development problem. However, in the absence of the whole industry and SME data, there is no in-depth analysis in previous literature of all entrepreneurial groups’ behaviors, leading to the lack of a scientific solution to the regional development imbalance issue. Using the high-frequency full enterprise big data, industrial agglomeration indicators of 277 cities in China are constructed. The impact of agglomeration on total enterprise entrepreneurship is studied, and the regulating effect of institutions on entrepreneurship is analyzed. It is found that agglomeration can promote the city's entrepreneurship. The marginal effect of agglomeration in the south is greater than that in the north. This is related to the mechanism of agglomeration. Institutional environment has a moderating effect on agglomeration. Based on the trend of production factors flowing to the south, the northern government needs to use preferential policies and to create a loose institutional environment making entrepreneurs back to the cluster, so as to realize the industrial structure upgrading in the specialization. It is an important attempt for this paper to realize the modernization of governance and make scientific arrangements for regional development with the massive data. Our finding is also instructive to promote the mass entrepreneurship and innovation, and to increase the multi-channel employment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Dynamic Evaluation with Generic Reinforcement Incentives and Its Application NIU Yu-fei, ZHANG Fa-ming, YUAN Sheng-jun 2023, 31 (6):  241-252.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1888 Abstract ( 134 )   PDF (1546KB) ( 284 )   Save In order to solve the problems in dynamic incentive evaluation, such as the lack of systematization, theory basis, normalization, maneuverability and scalability, a methodological model of dynamic incentive evaluation is constructed by introducing reinforcement theory, equity theory and contingency theory. Firstly, using process incentive theories mainly of reinforcement theory as the internal basis, and the data analysis method as the external support, the principal functional module “Generic Reinforcement Incentives” operator is proposed; secondly, each parameter of the operator is explained in detail, and the related properties are discussed; finally, the representational expression, application route and attentions are illustrated respectively. Through the parameters’ universality test and comparative analysis of numerical example, it shows that a feasible methodology system is provided by this model with significant universal ability, so as to help decision-maker to explore the specific dynamic characteristics and development potential of the evaluated object in specific background broadly and thoroughly, effectively widen the grades between the evaluated objects and bring about a more comprehensive classified selection. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Analysis of the Quantum Evolutionary Game of Coordination Game HUANG Ding-xuan, WU Yong-jiao, LU Rui, LI Shu-liang, 2023, 31 (6):  253-264.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1320 Abstract ( 203 )   PDF (3207KB) ( 426 )   Save Coordination and cooperation are one of the important characteristics of mankind. However, the decision-making of human does not meet the principles of independent decision-making and complete rationality stipulated by classical decision-making, especially when both sides have certain common interests. To solve this problem, based on the theory of quantum computing and evolutionary game theory, coordination game is taken as the template, the two methods are integrated effectively, and the quantum evolutionary game model of coordination game is proposed. The stability of our model at five special cases is analyzed by using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations. In addition, based on the quantum system management, the effective management enlightenment is put forward. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Research on Brent Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Based on MHPSO-NHMM-FIEGARCH-GED Model YANG Jie, FENG Yun, HUANG Qian 2023, 31 (6):  265-275.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2416 Abstract ( 160 )   PDF (3906KB) ( 193 )   Save The fluctuation of international crude oil price has an important impact on national economic development and social stability. Considering that the international crude oil price fluctuation structure is easily affected by external factors such as economic and trade, military and political events, firstly the nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) optimized by mutation hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to intelligently identify the various fluctuation state of Brent crude oil yields. Secondly, based on the identified fluctuation state, the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH model (NHMM-FIEGARCH-GED) combined with NHMM under the generalized error distribution is constructed to predict the crude oil volatility, and the prediction performance is evaluated by using the Model Confidence Set test method. The results show that NHMM-FIEGARCH-GED model has more accurate out-of-sample prediction ability. The crude oil market under the normal fluctuation shows the characteristics of long memory and is very sensitive to the impact of external information shocks, possessing the significant leverage effect; However, the crude oil market under the abnormal fluctuation shows anti-persistence and weak response to external shocks, and the leverage effect is not significant. The crude oil volatility has opposite long-range correlation under different fluctuation states, indicating that the series may have multifractal structure. Therefore, it is further discussed based on multifractal descended moving average method. The results show that the major influencing factor is the heavy-tailed probability distribution of series fluctuations, that is, the impacts of extremely profound external event shocks are the main driver of the multifractal characteristics of international crude oil fluctuations. It can provide new ideas for other scholars to study the volatility of energy or financial markets. At the same time, it can effectively guide relevant institutions, departments and investors to quickly formulate and implement reasonable response strategies in the context of sudden political events and world economic turmoil. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Select

Inverse Optimal Value Method of “Task-personnel” Matching with Time Inferring: Taking Petrochemical Equipment Emergency Repair as an Example ZHANG Li-li, YANG Wen-wen, LUO Guan-cong 2023, 31 (6):  276-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1686 Abstract ( 160 )   PDF (3183KB) ( 207 )   Save Once major equipment are broken down suddenly, if it cannot be responded in time, the production is suspended, and life cost, environment cost and economy cost are happened. Time-tight, urgent and high complexity are the characteristics of emergency repairs. For such practical problems of emergency repair, based on the above characteristics, aiming at minimizing the direct and indirect losses of emergency repairs, the serial and parallel relationships of logic sequence of critical tasks and non-critical tasks are considered. A forward optimization model for “task-personnel” matching is constructed. However, even if the optimal value of the model is still higher than the benchmark cost value, in order to solve this kind of problem, in view of the adjustable space for completion time, the inverse optimal value model is constructed. It is driven by the benchmark cost value. It is followed the idea of reverse thinking, which is the causes are found out from the results, and the task time is reverse-derived. In view of the inverse optimal value model has the characteristics of 0-1 mixed integer, nonlinear, bi-level and NP-hard, the hybrid “genetic-integer linear planning” algorithm is designed. The parallelization of genetic algorithm with the global search capability of integer linear planning are combined. Relevant data are obtained based on the actual investigation and interview of the relevant experts of the enterprise. The numerical analysis are showed that: the forward optimization method cannot get the benchmark value. Based on inverse optimal value method, both the intelligent algorithm and the exact algorithm can get the benchmark value with different “task-personnel” matching scheme and completion time. It shows that for the cost control, both the combination of personnel assignment scheme and completion time standard should be considered, and only one of them cannot achieve the expected. The inverse competition value method can ensure the realization of the target cost and reduce the cost of the total repair time. The “task-personnel-time” assignment themes are given by the algorithm. Intelligent algorithm solution speed has significant advantages, which is more suitable for such time-critical, urgent task and complex problems as emergency repair. The method proposed in this study can be applied to many fields such as project schedule control, standard working time design of human resource management, resource allocation decision-making from the perspective of target management, etc. It can give inspiration to the problem for inverse inferring decision parameters according to the expected results of decision-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics