Table of Content

17 July 2023, Volume 31 Issue 7 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Research on Human-machine Integration Complex Social System WANG Hong-wei, LI Jue, LIU Jian-guo, FAN Ying, MA Liang, HUO Hong, LIU Zuo-yi, DING Lie-yun 2023, 31 (7):  1-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.07.001 Abstract ( 1649 )   PDF (1642KB) ( 1536 )   Save The deepening of the new round of scientific-technological revolution is profoundly affecting and transforming the way of social living and production. The social system is evolving into a complex system coupled with human social space, information systems, and the physical environment. In the social system, actors, social relations, social structure, and social functions are profoundly changing. Human beings are entering a new social form characterized by the integration of human and machine. Such changes have brought significant challenges to the understanding, research, and governance of social systems. The definition of the human-machine integration social system is expounded from the perspective of the social system theory. It analyzes the unique connotation of human-machine integration complex social system from the aspects of social constituent subjects and structures, communication and media, and social differentiation and evolution. On this basis, the basic problems that need to be solved urgently in the research of human-machine integration complex social systems are proposed: (1) Human-machine collaboration in human-machine integration complex social systems; (2) Social networks in the environment of human-machine integration; (3) Emergence mechanism and evolution law of human-machine integration complex social system. Finally, aiming at the difficulties faced by previous social science research methods in solving the integrity problem of complex social systems, a research paradigm of complex social systems based on the system theory is proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Generalized Disappointment Aversion，Downside Risk and Asset Pricing of Chinese Stock Market CHEN Guo-jin, LIU Yuan-yue, CHEN Ling-ling, ZHAO Xiang-qin 2023, 31 (7):  22-37.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1553 Abstract ( 284 )   PDF (1339KB) ( 522 )   Save As an important factor driving systemic risk, downside risk has attracted increasing attention in recent years. It is acknowledged that investors especially retail investors, exhibit disappointment aversion risk preference which overweighs left-tail outcomes relative to right-tail outcomes. Given a high proportion of retail investors in Chinese stock market, delving into disappointment aversion could yield important implications for asset pricing and financial supervision. To this end, an empirical investigation into the pricing power of generalized disappoint aversion (henceforth GDA) in Chinese stock market is presented in this paper. By embedding GDA risk preference within the CCAPM framework, the GDA5 factor model including market factor, downstate factor, market downward factor, market volatility factor, and volatility downward factor is constructed. Using trading data of A-share listed firms in China from January 2006 to December 2020, the pricing ability of GDA5 model for individual stocks and asset portfolios is empirically tested. Additionally, the ability of GDA5 model in explaining pricing anomalies that documented in the literature is also formally examined. Finally, a series of robustness checks are conducted by changing the theoretical model derivation, key parameters and estimation window sizes. The results show that: (1) GDA5 factors are priced both at the level of individual stock and asset portfolio, where the downside risk, market volatility and downside volatility are the three most important pricing factors; (2) GDA5 model exhibits higher pricing ability during recessions, for non-cyclical stocks and stocks with lower equity concentration; (3) GDA5 model outperforms other classic pricing models in that GDA5 better explains cross-sectional stock returns for different portfolios, and asset pricing anomalies in Chinese stock market; (4) As a robustness check, the CGDA5 model based on consumption growth is constructed, and the results again confirm the pricing ability of downside risk in Chinese stock market. The proposed GDA5 factor model in this paper not only helps reveal the importance of disappoint aversion risk preference in explaining equity premiums and anomalies in Chinese stock market, but fills the gap in the literature as well as provides theoretical guidance for financial supervision. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Choice on Ownership Structure of SOEs under the Background of Mixed Ownership Reform：Based on the Prospective of Public Welfare Functions CHEN Qi-an, ZHANG Guo-hong, ZHAO Xu 2023, 31 (7):  38-49.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2349 Abstract ( 199 )   PDF (1064KB) ( 275 )   Save The choice of ownership structure is the primary issue in the mixed ownership reform of SOEs in China. It is the basic duty and legal obligation of SOEs to perform public welfare functions. The SOEs with different levels of public welfare function need to choose different ownership structures due to the different public welfare functions they need to perform. The level of public welfare function should be the fundamental basis for the SOEs to choose the ownership structure in the mixed ownership reform. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the ownership structure choice mechanism of SOEs performing different public welfare functions from both theoretical and empirical levels, so as to strengthen the match between the public welfare functions and ownership structure of SOEs, smoothly promote the mixed ownership reform of SOEs, and ensure the sustainable, stable and healthy development of SOEs. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Stronger Financial Regulation, Shadow Banking and Bank Systemic Risk ZHAO Jing, GUO Ye 2023, 31 (7):  50-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0222 Abstract ( 229 )   PDF (1084KB) ( 406 )   Save After the financial crisis in 2008, the enhanced cooperation among financial institutions has been caused by rapid development of China’s shadow banking, which may affect systemic risk. To prevent systemic risk, some strengthening financial regulations have been implemented since 2017. It is important to maintain financial stability effectively whether the regulations can reduce the interconnectedness between financial institutions. Based on the context, a single-index model (SIM) is used to estimate systemic interconnectedness across financial institutions, including depositories, trust companies, security companies and insurance companies. Then the financial institutions’ interconnectedness structure is taken into consideration in the measurement of systemic risk. Moreover, the impact of shadow banking on systemic risk is analyzed by applying systemic GMM. Furtherly, the effect of strengthening financial regulation on systemic risk and related mechanisms are discussed in this paper. The main findings are as follows. First, the rapid development of shadow banking increases bank systemic risk before 2017. Second, strengthening financial regulation helps to decrease bank systemic risk and plays a certain role of “de-channeling”. Third, strengthening financial regulations have contributed to curb the rapid growth of shadow banking and reduce its dependence on other financial institutions in its investment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Nonparametric Option Pricing under Multivariate No-arbitrage Constraints LI Qing, GE Xiang-yu, XIANG Xiu-li 2023, 31 (7):  60-67.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0239 Abstract ( 131 )   PDF (1211KB) ( 387 )   Save This existing nonparametric option pricing models under no-arbitrage constraints only considered the constraint of strike price along a single maturity, this paper will incorporate all the no-arbitrage constraints, such as maturity, underlying asset price, risk-free rate, and volatility. It’s difficult to estimate the nonparametric model under multivariate no-arbitrage constraints, we will reduce the dimension by variable transformation, and the multivariate will be reduced to one dimension. The number of option strikes contracts is infinite in single maturity, the problem can be solved by indexed multiple time-to-maturities options portfolios with variable transformation. Then, the nonparametric option pricing model under no-arbitrage constraints can be estimated efficiently using a quadratic programming algorithm, which will be computed easily in soft. Finally, we make empirical analysis by SSE 50 ETF options data, and make conclusion that the pricing effect of nonparametric option pricing model under multivariate no-arbitrage constraints is better than Black-Scholes model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on the Relationship between Liquidity Shock and Stock Return in Chinese A-Share Market KANG Wen-jin, ZHANG Kang 2023, 31 (7):  68-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0447 Abstract ( 205 )   PDF (1014KB) ( 367 )   Save Previous studies have shown that liquidity is an important pricing factor in stock market. Since there exists substantial time-series variation in stock liquidity, the change of liquidity (i.e., liquidity shock) could also have impact on stock return. Because of market friction, the information contained in the change of liquidity may not be fully reflected in the contemporaneous stock return in the first time. Therefore, it is interesting to examine whether liquidity shock can predict stock return in Chinese A-share market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Uncertainty of Economic Policy and the Contagion of Tail Risk between Global Financial Networks GONG Xiao-li, LIU Jian-min, XIONG Xiong, ZHANG Wei 2023, 31 (7):  78-90.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0849 Abstract ( 294 )   PDF (1646KB) ( 623 )   Save Affected by the global COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the economic downside risk and financial market uncertainty in various countries have increased significantly. In response to the impact of global emergencies, the Federal Reserve and the European Union have taken measures to “rescue the market.” With the synchronous follow-up of national policies, the degree of global economic policy uncertainty has deepened. EPU will affect the expectations of economic entities for the future, and the market expectation will affect the development of the real economy and the stability of the financial market through activities such as consumption and investment. Therefore, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is playing an increasingly important role in global risk contagion, and will even accelerate the process of financial risk contagion. The impact of the global epidemic has prompted investors to pay more attention to the economic policy uncertainty and global market network characteristics as well as tail risk transmission mechanism. the model of risk spillover effects between economic policy uncertainty and global financial markets is constructed from the perspective of interconnected networks. And then the transmission route of tail risks in global stock markets, currency markets, foreign exchange markets, bond markets, and derivatives markets is investigated. Specifically, based on GED-GJR-GARCH model, the volatility of EPU index and international financial market from February 2003 to October 2020 is calculated. And after incorporating the non-normal distribution caused by the tail risk shock into the model, the variance decomposition spillover index based on TVP-VAR is used to construct the financial network tail risk spillover model. The model is used to describe the dynamic characteristics of the global EPU index and the tail risk contagion of the international financial network. Compared with previous studies, the main contributions of this paper include several aspects. (1) The tail risk factor is taken into account into the international financial network risk spillover model in the form of non-normal distribution of returns on assets; (2) Variance decomposition spillover index based on TVP-VAR can describe the dynamic of the global structure of the high-dimensional network; (3) Elastic Net method is used to optimize the estimation algorithm of time-varying high-dimensional parameters, and solve the “dimension disaster” problem faced in the current financial network risk measurement; (4) By measuring a series of indicators to measure the stability of the network topology, a more in-depth analysis of the tail risk contagion between the international financial network structure and the uncertainty of global economic policies is carried out. The research results show that stock market and derivative market are the sources of tail risk, and their volatility will induce the EPU to rise. The rise of economic policy uncertainty intensifies the spillover effect of tail risk between the markets, so EPU has become an important node in the transmission path of tail risk. With the opening of capital accounts of different countries, the foreign exchange market has become an intermediate bridge for the contagion of tail risks. The results of the global risk spillover network show that during the financial crisis, the risk linkage between markets has increased significantly. And it has formed the tail risk contagion path with EPU and foreign exchange market as the hub, stock market and derivatives market as the source of risk. The comparison of risk spillover networks in different periods shows that the tail risk contagion mechanism between international financial markets is time-varying. The research conclusions are helpful to prevent financial market risk contagion under the background of uncertain economic policies of different countries, and provide new ideas for improving national financial security. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Mechanism and Solution of Equity Gap in Private Equity Market NI Xuan-ming, QIU Yu-ning, ZHAO Hui-min 2023, 31 (7):  91-102.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1619 Abstract ( 108 )   PDF (1987KB) ( 235 )   Save Equity gap has always been a practical problem that can not be ignored in the development of private fund market. From the perspective of cooperative game, a model based on Shapley value is constructed, to describe the formation of equity gap and explore the corresponding solutions. It is found that insufficient money supply, insufficient demand of target enterprises and inefficient allocation are the three main reasons for the formation of equity gap. Insufficient supply means that the investment willingness of LP is low, insufficient demand means that the market is lack of high-quality enterprises, and inefficient allocation is manifested in the mismatch between supply and demand caused by GP. Meanwhile, a method is given to distinguish the causes of equity gap. For different causes, the government can effectively make up for the equity gap by direct or indirect means, such as introducing government-sponsored venture capital, promoting the development of enterprises through tax incentives, and enhancing information disclosure to improve GP’s recognition ability. Although promoting the quality of enterprises is a slow process, it helps to realize the virtuous circle of capital market and enterprise development, and make technology be the source of economic growth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Heterogeneous Institutional Investors and Corporate Reputation:Social Responsibility: Intermediate Effect Test Based on Corporate Social Responsibility SONG Yan, LIU Yue-ting, ZHANG Lu-guang 2023, 31 (7):  103-114.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0070 Abstract ( 238 )   PDF (1355KB) ( 565 )   Save With the development of the economy and the continuous improvement of the capital market, the rapid development of institutional investors has been attracted more and more attention. Institutional investors have many advantages such as capital, information and expertise, so they can participate more in the daily operation and decision-making of the company, so people have high expectations of them in supervising the development of the invested enterprises and improving the capital market. At the same time, as the economic structure of our country is upgraded and developed, the focus of development is transformed into quality and sustainability, and all kinds of problems in the process of deepening the reform of enterprises are also increasingly prominent. Especially in the pandemic of Covid-19, the quasi-insurance role of corporate social responsibility has been fully confirmed, and the role of corporate social responsibility and corporate reputation in crisis is becoming more and more significant, so exploring the relationship between heterogeneous institutions and corporate reputation is worth studying. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Impact of Carbon Trading on Remanufacturing under Intellectual Property Protection XIA Xi-qiang, LU Meng-yuan, LI Biao 2023, 31 (7):  115-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2232 Abstract ( 192 )   PDF (3490KB) ( 244 )   Save To analyse the impact of carbon trading on remanufacturing under intellectual property protection, two remanufacturing models (outsourcing remanufacturing and warranty remanufacturing) are developed between an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a remanufacturer under carbon trading. Based on the optimal solution of the game model, the impact of carbon trading on the manufacturing/remanufacturing decisions of original producers and remanufacturers is first analyzed; second, the impact of carbon trading on societal welfare (including producer profits, environmental impacts, consumer surplus, and societal surplus for both products) is examined. The results of the study are as follows: (1) When the ratio of environmental impacts per unit of remanufactured products and per unit of new products is low, carbon trading can effectively promote the recycling of waste products and the sale of remanufactured products. When the price of emission allowance trading is above a certain threshold, the profit of OEMs and remanufacturers is positively related to the unit price of carbon trading. (2) Based on carbon trading, the OEM can increase revenue by lowering the unit price of remanufacturing when remanufacturing is approved; when remanufacturing is outsourced, the OEM can transfer revenue by lowering the unit price of remanufacturing and increasing the unit price of outsourcing remanufacturing. (3) The OEM always prefers to outsource remanufacturing; the remanufacturer prefers to outsource remanufacturing only when the consumer preference and the amount of waste product recycling meet certain conditions. (4) Consumer and social surplus is always higher when remanufacturing is outsourced, and if the ratio of environmental impact per unit of remanufactured products to that per unit of new products is low, the environmental impact of outsourcing remanufacturing is low. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Stock Index Futures Trading Policy, Investors’ Behavior and Stock Market Quality LIU Mu-han, XIONG Xiong, 2023, 31 (7):  126-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1621 Abstract ( 130 )   PDF (2661KB) ( 121 )   Save With the gradual relaxation of trading policy in the stock index futures market, this paper studies the changing characteristics of the investors’ trading behavior in the stock index futures market and the quality of the stock market, as well as the relationship among the investors’ behavior and the volatility and liquidity of the spot market. Based on the daily market data of CSI300 stock index futures and CSI500 stock index futures and their underlying indexes from September 7, 2015 to September 6, 2019, the following two parts are studied: First, build indicators to reflect the activity of investors using stock index futures for different types of transactions, and then study the impact of policy changing on trading behavior. Second, establish simultaneous equations to study the relationship among investors’ trading activity, stock market quality and the trading policy in the stock index futures market. Through descriptive statistics, difference test and regression test, it is found that: Firstly, the looser the trading policy, the more active the investor’s long-term trading (hedging), the less active the investor’s overnight trading (speculation), and the more active the stock index futures market on the whole level. Secondly, although the more active the stock index futures trading, the stronger the volatility of the stock market, the restraining effect of stock index futures on volatility has also increased with the gradual easing of trading restriction. Thirdly there is “transaction transfer effect” between the overall trading activity of stock index futures and the liquidity of the stock market. At the same time, there is “incremental effect” between the hedging activity and liquidity. In summary, the more attractive the trading policy is to investors, the easier it is for stock index futures to play its due role and basic function and improve the quality of stock market. In contrast to the pre-existing studies, it focuses on the main-board and the small and medium-sized board markets at the same time, and phasically characterizes the role played by index futures in recent years under the Chinese financial system, providing empirical support for regulators to further develop and open index derivatives. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evaluating the Operational Performance for Commercial Banks in China Considering the Profit Way WANG Mei-qiang, CHANG Mei 2023, 31 (7):  140-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0590 Abstract ( 120 )   PDF (1374KB) ( 123 )   Save Banking is still the pillar industry of the financial system in china and plays a pivotal role in the development of both China’s real and virtual economy. As the reform of China’s financial industry and the emergence of various new types of financial enterprises, the banking environment in China has become increasingly competitive. In this circumstance, measuring the bank efficiency accurately can help the managers understand the overall situation of banking and formulate measures effectively to improve the bank's core competitiveness and operational efficiency. To reasonably evaluate the operational performance of Chinese commercial banks, the operational process of commercial bank is divided into three serial stages: Capital raising, capital allocation, and profitability. Among them, the profitability stage is further divided into two parallel sub-stages: Lending and investment. Then, a three-stage dynamic SBM-DEA model with a nested parallel structure is constructed, in which the undesired output is considered. Subsequently, the proposed model is employed to evaluate the multi-period operational performance and annual operational performance of 25 Chinese commercial banks from 2015 to 2019. Finally, based on the above evaluations, an in-depth analysis for the overall operating situations, performance changes and performance influencing factors of the 25 commercial banks from 2015 to 2019 is performed. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) About 70% of the sample banks’ overall operational performances are below average. The reason for inefficiency of the overall operational performance for banks mainly originates from the two sub-stages of capital raising and profitability. The capital-raising efficiency of the state-owned bank is significantly higher than that of the joint-stock bank and the city commercial bank, but its profit efficiency is the lowest among the three types of banks. The situation of the city commercial bank is just opposite to that of the state-owned bank. 2) The investment efficiency is significantly higher than the lending efficiency, but there is a significant positive correlation between them. 3) The overall operational performance of Chinese commercial banks is generally declining during the period of 2015-2019, but the changing trends of the performance in each sub-stage are different. 4) In addition to the evaluation indicators, the rate of return on equity and the asset size have a significant positive impact on the overall operational performance of banks, while capital adequacy ratio, and fee and commission expense have a significant negative impact on that of banks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Government Monitoring Strategy and Promotion Mechanism of Power Rent-seeking in Poverty Alleviation GAO Yu-wei, NIE Teng-fei, DU Shao-fu 2023, 31 (7):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0167 Abstract ( 114 )   PDF (1321KB) ( 246 )   Save Power rent-seeking in the field of poverty alleviation not only causes huge losses to the national financial funds, but also affects the credibility of the government in the eyes of the public. Therefore, it is an important topic worthy of attention and research. In this paper, a setting is considered in which a village cadre obtains poverty alleviation funds and distribute them to poor villager. The government will monitor to prevent the village cadre from being bribed to distribute poverty alleviation funds to fake poor or real poor. The village cadre has two-dimensional private information about his own type (rent or not rent) and about the villagers’ condition (real poor or fake poor). A game-theoretic model is developed to investigate the strategies of villagers’ rent competition, the probability of village cadre’s rent-seeking and the utility of the government. The results show that villagers’ rent-seeking strategies will affect the rent-seeking probability of village cadre. With the strengthening of monitoring, higher rent provided by villagers will still increase the rent-seeking probability of village cadre; After the rating promotion mechanism is proposed, even if the villagers provide higher rent, the rent-seeking behavior of the village cadre can be effectively reduced. In addition, some effective suggestions on how the government should set the optimal monitoring are provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Pricing and CSR Investment Strategy of the Online Retailer in O2O Mode HUANG He, DING Jing, CHI Yi 2023, 31 (7):  162-172.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1358 Abstract ( 189 )   PDF (1643KB) ( 342 )   Save In recent years, the rapid development of e-commerce has prompted online retailers to continuously explore new business models. In addition to B2B, B2C, C2C and other modes, the O2O mode has received attention from online retailers. However, in reality, the O2O mode will change the needs of consumers and the operating process of online retailers. It is possible that online retailers will invest costs to implement the O2O mode and will not bring them revenue growth. At the same time, with the development of economy and society and the increasing awareness of consumers’ social responsibility, online retailers often need to invest in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). In other words, CSR investment requires online retailers to change the traditional concept of profit as the only goal, and emphasize the contribution to people, the environment, and society in the business process. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Differential Game on Joint Carbon Emission Reduction and Low-carbon Promotion with Considering Retailer’s Fairness Preference in Supply Chains JIANG Yue, HAN Shui-hua, ZHAO Yang 2023, 31 (7):  173-182.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1302 Abstract ( 161 )   PDF (1095KB) ( 264 )   Save With the excessive consumption of energy, abnormal climate and environmental pollution becoming increasingly prominent, countries all over the world began to advocate low-carbon economy, which is the general trend of world economic development. Under the constraints of relevant laws and regulations, more and more enterprises gradually realize the importance of reducing carbon emissions and begin to improve the produce technics and produce low-carbon products. At the same time, with the deepening of low-carbon awareness, consumers with low-carbon awareness gradually tend to buy low-carbon products. The higher the emission reduction of products, the greater the market demand. However, the carbon emission reduction of products still needs to be transmitted to consumers through the low-carbon promotion of retailers, which shows that on the one hand, product emission reduction needs to rely on the emission reduction efforts of manufacturers, On the other hand, retailers' promotion of low-carbon products is also of great significance. Therefore, it is very important to study product emission reduction and low-carbon promotion from the perspective of supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordination of a Loss Averse and Financially Constrained Supply Chain with Promotional Effort DAI Jian-sheng, LI Ling 2023, 31 (7):  183-193.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0513 Abstract ( 153 )   PDF (1907KB) ( 290 )   Save It discusses coordination of a supply chain constituted by a loss neutral supplier and a loss averse retailer, where the retailer is faced with shortage of funds and implements promotion efforts, on the assumption that the retailer cannot get access to bank financing. Based on the framework of prospect theory, an expectation-based loss aversion utility model is constructed, upon which the retailer’s ordering and promotion strategies are characterized under different initial fund statuses. What’s more, three sorts of coordination contracts are designed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Intrernational Board and Ecnomic Growth: Evidence from Emerging Market Countries LUO Xiao-yun, YI Rong-hua 2023, 31 (7):  194-201.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1078 Abstract ( 125 )   PDF (3212KB) ( 91 )   Save The net effects of both factual openness and regulatory openness on economic growth were tested using the multi-period difference-in-differences method based on data from 22 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2019. The results show that the net effects of both are positive, but the net effect of factual openness is greater and more significant. A dynamic non-equilibrium panel model is constructed using data from 16 open countries from 2002 to 2019 to examine the relationship between the development of international board markets and economic growth and to analyze the role of capital account liberalization in this process. It is found that the development of international board markets had a significant positive impact on the host country’s economic growth, and capital account liberalization had a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between international board markets and economic growth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolutionary Game Analysis of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Coordinated Governance by Government，Agricultural Enterprise and Farmers HE Qi-long, TANG Juan-hong, LUO Xing, WANG Xian-jia 2023, 31 (7):  202-213.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1319 Abstract ( 205 )   PDF (2181KB) ( 302 )   Save Rural non-point source pollution governance is an important element of ecological environmental protection，which is related to the construction of rural ecological civilization，national food security and agricultural green development，and the water tank，rice bag and vegetable basket of urban and rural residents．In order to solve the pollution problem of rural non-point source，explore the co-governance mode of multi-subject participation consisting of government，agribusinesses and farmers，evolutionary game model of local government，agribusinesses and farmers is built，the dominant advantage of local government in forcing farmers is explored to “reduce the amount at source” by taking advantage of the leading role of agribusinesses in the industrial chain to link up with the market and farmers．Specifically，local governments act on agribusinesses through administrative orders and financial subsides to supervise and support the development of agribusinesses and gain policy benefits from the central government. Agribusinesses，as government agents，supervise the green production behavior of farmers，after supervising and testing the quality of agricultural products，adopt a graded purchase system or give farmers green premium dividends to take care of farmers，thus driving farmers to provide high-quality green products according to the contract signed between the two parties．At the same time，agricultural enterprises also realize the green supply chain revenue． References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Multi-intersection Coordinated Control with Equal Emphasis on Efficiency, Fairness, and Spillback QIAO Jian, CHEN Meng-tian, HE Meng-ying, CHEN Xin-jun 2023, 31 (7):  214-226.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2051 Abstract ( 83 )   PDF (7048KB) ( 78 )   Save To pay equal attention to efficiency, fairness, and spillback in the process of network traffic control remains an open problem. A multi-intersection coordinated control model with equal emphasis on efficiency, fairness and spillback is constructed by using a rule-driven method that combines fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, and multi-agent system, where the traffic signal of each intersection is controlled by an agent that contains four modules, the information collection and distribution module is responsible for collecting and sending traffic condition at local and adjacent intersections, the phase selection module is responsible for selecting the next green phase, the green time calculation module is responsible for calculating the green time for the selected phase, and the decision optimization module is used to optimize the fuzzy rules and membership functions of both the traffic urgency fuzzy inference machine of the phase selection module and the green time fuzzy inference machine of the green time calculation module. Experimental results show that optimizing the aforementioned fuzzy inference machines can significantly improves the performance of the model, independent control with equal emphasis on efficiency and fairness is more efficient and fairer than fixed-time control and vehicle-actuated control, and coordinated control with equal emphasis on efficiency, fairness and spillback is not only more efficient and fairer than independent control, but also effectively prevents spillback, and makes the distribution of network traffic flow develop in a more balanced direction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Evolutionary Stable Strategy for Cooperative Innovation of Key Part of Core Technology under the Monopoly Condition YAN Wen-jun, WANG Xiao-xue, LI De-hong, Guo Ju-e 2023, 31 (7):  227-236.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0474 Abstract ( 149 )   PDF (3596KB) ( 159 )   Save Since the outbreak of Sino-U.S. trade friction, the U.S. has imposed a technical blockade on China at a certain technological level. Huawei's sanction incident shows that under the background of internationalization of the high-tech product supply chain when the key part of core technology is monopolized by external suppliers, enterprises are inevitably controlled by foreign suppliers. For long-term development, enterprises must break through the external monopoly of the key part of core technology, and cooperation between enterprises and universities and research institutes is effective. In view of the phenomenon that enterprises are at risk of price control when the key part of core technology can be imported from abroad, a mixed strategy evolutionary game matrix of enterprises, R&D entities, and foreign suppliers is constructed, in which enterprises need to make decisions on whether to invest in R&D entities and lead the creation of innovation consortia. The main strategy of R&D is to strive for R&D or not. The strategy space of foreign suppliers is to increase the product price or not increase the product price, and the influencing factors of tripartite strategy choice are analyzed. As the breakthrough of the key part of core technology is faced with financial difficulties such as high R&D investment, long investment cycle, and high sunk cost, external financing may be needed. The influence of different external financing modes on the evolutionary stability strategy is further analyzed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Objective Optimization Method and Verification Analysis of Group Evaluation Data from the Perspective of Psychological Threshold Coordination ZHOU Ying, YI Ping-tao, WANG Lu, DONG Qian-kun 2023, 31 (7):  237-245.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1775 Abstract ( 110 )   PDF (1142KB) ( 261 )   Save In group evaluation, the subjective evaluation information provided by different evaluators usually has some objective and subjective differences. Psychological threshold refers to the critical range that can just cause psychological qualitative change. It is an important part of the subjective difference. Considering that sometimes the subjective psychological threshold data is difficult to obtain and quantify, it is necessary to carry out more in-depth research on the objective psychological threshold coordination method which can reduce the impact of psychological threshold difference on the authenticity of evaluation data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolution Law of the Chain Crisis Towards Public Opinion and Panic Buying with Information Sentiment and Environmental Noise WANG Zhi-ying, ZHAO Hong-li, NIE Hui-fang 2023, 31 (7):  246-255.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2389 Abstract ( 128 )   PDF (1524KB) ( 197 )   Save Through the real cases ranging from panic buying for isatis root induced by the public opinion of “isatis root may keep SARS away” in 2003 to the behaviors of scrambling for drugs overnight provoked by the public opinion of “shuanghuanglian oral liquid can suppress COVID-19” in 2020, it is not difficult to find that the chain crisis towards public opinion and panic buying (POPB) has seriously threatened people’s normal life and brought enormous challenges on social harmony and stability. Thus, it is of significance and necessity to conduct researches on the evolution law of the chain crisis towards POPB for its emergency response. In view of the impact of information sentiment and environmental noise (ISEN) on the evolution process of chain crisis are rarely considered in the existing studies, a dynamic model incorporating ISEN is proposed to research the evolution law of the chain crisis. Supported by multiple cases study, the structural description on the chain crisis towards POPB from attribute level is firstly constructed, and accordingly, the association between such structural description and system modeling of the chain crisis is established. Based on this, the normative expression of the chain crisis evolution mechanism under the influence of environmental attribute is extracted. Then, the heterogeneous bounded confidence model with environmental noise is extended to depict the impact of ISEN in environmental attributes on participants’ decision-making, and the dynamic model referring to the traditional epidemic model is established to describe the chain crisis evolution. Further, mean-field equations of the proposed model are given, and the roles of ISEN on analytical solution for the reproduction number of chain crisis evolution and stability of POPB-free equilibrium are deduced by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria and LaSalle’s invariance principle respectively. The mathematic derivations show that the increase of positive sentiment orientation or the decrease of negative sentiment orientation and environmental noise tend to result in the lower reproduction number of chain crisis evolution. Also, it can promote the POPB-free equilibrium to reach the local and global asymptotically stability, and the latter stability simultaneously relies on reinforcement effect of panic buying required to be less than a certain threshold. Finally, the chain crisis towards POPB caused by COVID-19 in 2020 is taken as an example to verify the validity of the proposed model and examine the impact of ISEN on the evolution of the chain crisis. The results demonstrate that the evolution tendency on the chain crisis simulated by the proposed model can well approximate the fluctuation of actual data in reality. And compared with the final size, the maximum influence is more pronouncedly impacted by ISEN. Additionally, if the crisis responders take control of the maximum influence of the chain crisis from information sentiment level, the strategies on negative sentiment orientation should be given the priority. The abovementioned research results not only enrich the research contents in the field of chain crisis towards POPB but also bring certain theoretical supports for better coping with it from the view of ISEN. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Twostage Inventory Model Considering Forecast Accuracy of Online Fast Fashion Products HU Hai-qing, Pandu R Tadikamalla 2023, 31 (7):  256-265.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1339 Abstract ( 214 )   PDF (1347KB) ( 220 )   Save Retailors of short lifecycle products, such as fashion goods, have a single replenishment opportunity during the sales season. The initial order quantity, replenishing time and quantity are three interrelated decisions. The improvement of forecast is time-dependent because of the observed demand information increasing with time. The time-dependent improvement of forecast is integrated into a two-stage inventory model by adjusting the range of estimated demand interval in the second stage. Four order policies (PMNI: the profit maximization assuming no inventory left at the end of the first stage, PMSI: the profit maximization assuming some inventory left at the end of the first stage, CM: the cost minimization of the first stage, and MD: meet the demand of the first stage in maximum degree) are proposed to determine the initial order quantity and illustrate the process to find the best one. PMNI is the best choice among the four policies when there is no inventory left over at the end of the first stage. As for the total expect profit of the two stage, if the whole sales price of the first stage is more than that of the second stage to a certain value, PMNI is dominant than PMSI, otherwise, vice versa. Handu, which is a typical fast fashion E-commerce enterprise in China, is selected to illustrate how to choose the best ordering policy based on the actual total profit. The empirical data analysis illustrates the profit in case of the two-stage inventory model considering forecast accuracy will improve 76% than that in case of single-stage inventory model, and 300% more than that in case of the two-stage inventory model for offline fast fashion products without considering the dynamic changes of forecast accuracy (Fisher et al, 2001); in general, MPSI will be dominant comparing with MPNI. If the range of forecast demand interval is large, the conservative ordering policy, like MPNI and MC will get more profit, especially the cost of overstock is more than the cost of lost-sale. The way of integrating the forecast accuracy into the inventory model to decide the replenishing time will inspire the research on time decision of other inventory model in different cases. The analytic findings and empirical observation will help the retailor to choose the best ordering policy to get more profit. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Horizontal Technology Authorization Strategies of the R&D Manufacturer with Uncertain R&D Results WANG Wei, HUANG Zhao-wang, DING Li-li, ZHANG Wen-si 2023, 31 (7):  266-275.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1870 Abstract ( 121 )   PDF (1669KB) ( 211 )   Save For the innovative manufacturer, technology licensing is a practical approach to generate profits by the improved (or new) technology obtained from innovation. For the manufacturer with no (or weak) R&D abilities to engage in innovation, technology licensing is an effective way to acquire the new technology. In a two-echelon supply chain consisting of an R&D manufacturer, a non-R&D manufacturer and a retailer, the R&D manufacturer can license technology to the non-R&D manufacturer and charge technology authorization fees from the non-R&D manufacturer. Considering the uncertainty of R&D results, the optimal technology authorization strategy choice (including technology authorization based on royalty fee, fixed fee, mixed fee, and so on) of the R&D manufacturer is studied. Then, the effect of product substitution and technology spillover on the optimal charging fee are discussed. Finally, the optimal R&D levels of the R&D manufacturer, the whole price of non-R&D manufacturer, the profit of non-R&D manufacturer, the profit of retailer with and without the technology authorization are compared respectively. It is shown that: (1) the optimal technology authorization strategy choice of the R&D manufacturer is not affected by the product substitution, when the degree of technology spillover is small (large), the optimal choice of the R&D manufacturer is the authorization strategy based on mixed fees (royalty fee). (2) Both the charging fee in the royalty fee strategy and the fixed fee in the mixed fee strategy are affected by the product substitution and the technology spillover, while the royalty fee in the mixed fee strategy is only affected by the product substitution. (3) When the degrees of both the product substitution and the technology spillover are within a certain range, the profit of retailer can be improved by the technology authorization of the R&D manufacturer. (4) The R&D investment level of the R&D manufacturer with the technology authorization is always greater than that without the technology authorization. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Tracking of Research Status and Frontiers in the Field of Management Science LI Bo, QIN Yong, XU Ze-shui 2023, 31 (7):  276-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1830 Abstract ( 426 )   PDF (5479KB) ( 529 )   Save With the rapid development of the field of management science, a large number of theoretical and applied innovative research results have emerged. By selecting the important journals in the field of management science in China, ten journal data are collected, including Chinese Journal of Management Science, Journal of Management World, Journal of Management Sciences in China, Journal of Management Science, Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Business Review, Nankai Business Review, System Engineering Theory and Practice, Journal of Systems Engineering and Forecasting. 45,315 search results are obtained. After the manual screening, irrelevant data are eliminated. Then, 42,661 valid academic papers are obtained supporting this research. Based on the bibliometric analysis and science mapping tools, the research characteristics and dynamic development trends in the field of management science are explored. First, with the SATI tool, a preliminary exploration of the basic characteristics of the literature is explored, i.e., the article analysis. Then, based on the visualization tools VOSviewer and CiteSpace, the keywords of all the documents are extracted. The strategic diagram is presented. And, the keyword co-occurrence analysis is performed to illustrate the popular research topics in this field. Further, keyword timeline analysis and burst detection test are conducted to explore the dynamic evolution process and extract the frontier research issues in the field of management science. Finally, five important research topics are further focused and discussed combined with bibliometric analysis results, including supply chain management, financial and economic forecast, intelligent optimization algorithm, decision-making theory and method, and applications. The development status and prospects are analyzed to provide important references for relevant scholars in terms of theoretical research and practical innovation, and effective guidance for the development of this field. References | Related Articles | Metrics