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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 May 2023, Volume 31 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Pricing and Green Input Decisions of a Competitive Supply Chain with Consumers’ Product Preference and Different Channel Powers
    CHEN Ke-bing, KONG Ying-qi, LEI Dong
    2023, 31 (5):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1924
    Abstract ( 899 )   PDF (1400KB) ( 1740 )   Save
    With the increase of customers’ environmental awareness and the intensification of market competition, the right sales decisions are significantly important for any green product enterprises to enter, occupy, consolidate and expand their markets. For this, a supply chain system consisting of one traditional manufacturer, one green manufacturer and one retailer is developed. Depending on the channel powers of two manufacturers in the system, three supply chain game models, i.e., traditional-manufacturer-leader Stackelberg game model, green-manufacturer-leader Stackelberg game model and Nash game model between both manufacturers, are considered. How the different channel power structures and the consumers’ green preference affect the decisions of wholesale prices, retail prices, order quantities, green input and supply chain profits is mainly investigated in this study. Furthermore, a cost-sharing and two-part-tariff contract is proposed to coordinate such a supply chain, and the Pareto improvement condition for each supply chain member’s profit is given.
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    Study on Relationship between Environmental Regulation and Green Total Factor Productivity from the Perspective of Private Investment
    JI Jian-yue, XU Yao, ZHANG Yi
    2023, 31 (5):  11-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1659
    Abstract ( 390 )   PDF (979KB) ( 845 )   Save
    The existing literature ignores the close relationship between private investment and the realization of Porter's hypothesis. In this paper, the green total factor productivity is measured by the direction distance function using data from China at the provincial level for the period 2007—2017. Furthermore, taking private investment as intermediary variable and threshold variable, the relationship among environmental regulation, private investment and green total factor productivity is studied. The results show that: firstly, there is a U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and green total factor productivity, and improving the intensity of environmental regulation can promote the green total factor productivity. Secondly, the mediating effect of “environmental regulation→private investment→green total factor productivity” is significant, and there is a U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and private investment, increasing private investment can promote green total factor productivity. Thirdly, private investment also has threshold effect, when the level of private investment is low, environmental regulation and green total factor productivity are negatively correlated or not significant. Only when the level of private investment is high, environmental regulation can significantly promote green total factor productivity. The results show that the development of private investment is the necessary premise to promote the realization of Porter hypothesis.
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    Study on the Internal Risk Contagion Mechanism of Enterprise Groups Based on Network Structure
    LI Bing-qing, ZHANG Xiao-yuan
    2023, 31 (5):  20-28.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1263
    Abstract ( 479 )   PDF (1564KB) ( 1036 )   Save
    It is devoted to studying the transmission mechanism of risk within the group in this paper. Based on the relationship between equity and related party transaction, a directed weighting network structure is formed, and the model of risk contagion mechanism within enterprise groups is built by combining SIRS model. It is found that the state of group members in steady state is closely related to the degree distribution of nodes. The greater the degree of the impacted nodes, the wider the scope of risk contagion. Furthermore, through the discussion of scale-free network, it is found that the influence of related factors on the risk contagion within the group, and learned that the recovery rate is the key factor affecting the risk spread within the group. The research shows that the group can make its operation more stable by reducing effective infection rate and increasing the possibility of eliminating crisis.
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    Blockchain-Based Dual-Channel Supply Chain Pricing Decision and Online Channel Selection Strategy
    LIANG Xi, XIAO Jin-feng
    2023, 31 (5):  29-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1755
    Abstract ( 911 )   PDF (1609KB) ( 2134 )   Save
    Blockchain technology is widely used in various industries. In this paper, the application of blockchain technology to product certification in the supply chain can reduce the certification time and fidelity. In the two dual channel supply chain systems of online direct selling and online distribution, the Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer is the leader and the other participants are followers is considered. The sensitive coefficient of the consumer’s time for product inspection and evaluation, the false probability of the inspection result and the unit verification fee of the blockchain are introduced. The pricing and channel selection strategies of four dual channel supply chains are compared and analyzed. The results show that: when using the blockchain technology, the manufacturer’s profit under the direct selling mode is higher than that of the distribution mode, the traditional retailer’s profit under the direct selling mode is lower than that of the distribution mode, and the total profit of the supply chain under the direct selling mode is higher than that of the distribution mode; in the direct selling mode, the manufacturer’s profit, the traditional retailer’s profit and the total profit of the supply chain are higher than that of the distribution mode. In the distribution mode, when the fixed fee for manufacturers to introduce blockchain technology is small, the profits of manufacturers, traditional retailers, online retailers and the total profits of supply chain with blockchain technology are higher than those without blockchain technology.
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    Mutual Funds’ Dynamic Liquidity Preference-Based on Expected Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment
    WANG Dan-yang, YAO Lu-shi
    2023, 31 (5):  39-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0858
    Abstract ( 380 )   PDF (1010KB) ( 1283 )   Save
    Liquidity management is particularly relevant for mutual funds as they face redemption risk induced by market liquidity crunch, bearing huge liquidity costs. Fund managers manage liquidity risk by observing signals of future investor redemption, so as to provide a “dynamic liquidity cushion” in advance and to mitigate the adverse effect of fund outflows (Scholes, 2000). Previous literature considers market volatility in gauging redemption risks, but behavioral factors such as investor sentiment that can potentially influence fund flows have not been examined. The gap is filled by considering market volatility and investor sentiment as a combined signal to gauge future fund redemption and to understand funds’ strategic liquidity provision in China.
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    China’s Employment Change and Driving Factors under Global Value Chains
    XIE Rui, NIU Meng, ZHANG Bin
    2023, 31 (5):  49-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1607
    Abstract ( 422 )   PDF (1155KB) ( 876 )   Save
    Employment is not only the greatest livelihood, but also the most basic support for economic development. Clarifying China’s global value chains (GVCs) employment, and its changing mechanism would shed light on how to achieve higher quality and fuller employment in the future. Under the global input-output accounting framework, the method of Reijnders & de Vries (2018) to measure the production technology of various industries in various countries based on the hypothesis of national productivity is improved, and the total factor productivity of national industry level is introduced by our paper. China’s GVCs employment change under global value chains at the aggregate, industry and skill levels are then comprehensively measured and analyzed. The chaining structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is further adopted to explore the roles of TFP, labor input coefficient, intermediate input outsourcing, final demand outsourcing, the product structure of final demand and final demand scale. The proposed accounting framework is then applied to empirical analysis using the world input-output tables released in 2016 and the matched employment data, covering the period from 2000 to 2014. Of course, the world input-output tables released in 2013 and the matched employment data at the skill level, covering the period from 2000 to 2009, are also used. Our findings suggest that the scale of China’s GVCs employment growth is obvious at the both aggregate and industrial levels. After China’s entry into WTO, the service industry attracts more investment, and achieves faster growth than the manufacturing industry. In addition, the working hours of skilled workers increased significantly, while that of low skilled workers extended the most. The decomposition results show that the growth of China’s employment is mainly driven by the expansion of final demand scale. In contrast, technological progress has significantly inhibited China’s employment growth, and compared with the increase of TFP, the decrease of labor input coefficient has a stronger inhibitory effect. Outsourcing is overall beneficial to China’s employment growth, and compared to intermediate input outsourcing, the employment promotion effect of final demand outsourcing is significantly greater. Taking industry and skill jobs into consideration, the above results show heterogeneities. The findings of this paper shed light on the realization of full and high-quality employment in China.
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    Investor Sentiment, Order Flow Imbalance and Stock Liquidity
    YIN Hai-yuan, WU Xing-ying
    2023, 31 (5):  60-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1754
    Abstract ( 449 )   PDF (1035KB) ( 1846 )   Save
    With the development of Web2.0, social media has gradually evolved into an online expression carrier. Different subjects, for their interests, using this channel to create and share content. Individual investors are more willing to express their true feelings through online platforms. This information has significant explanatory power to the stock market, but will not be reflected in the market data. In the process of continuous aggregation and fermentation, it intensifies the sentimental tendency of investors, fundamentally changes the information structure of the stock market.
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    Research on Dynamic Forecasting of Rewarding Crowdfunding Financing Performance——Empirical Analyses from “Crowdfunding Network” Data
    ZHANG Wei-guo, HUANG Si-ying, WANG Chao
    2023, 31 (5):  71-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1520
    Abstract ( 389 )   PDF (1395KB) ( 1121 )   Save
    Starting in 2015, compared with foreign crowdfunding platforms that need to review the sponsor’s personal information, bank collection account, guarantor’s social security account, and other information, the Chinese platform has lower requirements for personal information disclosure of project sponsors, and the overall market has serious information asymmetry. Besides, most relevant studies are based on cross-sectional data, and few use panel data to analyze the dynamics of project financing. More importantly, existing research has not paid attention to the dynamic monitoring of rewarding crowdfunding financing performance and lacks corresponding measurement and monitoring methods. Limited by high information acquisition costs and low information processing capabilities, when faced with the virtuality and borderless nature of cyberspace, it is often difficult for investors to correctly evaluate project results based on existing project settings, description information, and real-time project financing progress which eventually generate the risk of investment failure. Based on this, an in-depth exploration of investor dynamic behavior is conducted, hoping to use innovative models to improve information processing capabilities and reduce the impact of information asymmetry in the crowdfunding market.
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    Research on Process Evaluation of Default Risk of Small Enterprises under Multidimensional Data
    ZHAO Zhi-chong, YAN Li-xia
    2023, 31 (5):  84-92.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1835
    Abstract ( 279 )   PDF (1101KB) ( 955 )   Save
    The process evaluation of default risk is to evaluate the default risk of small enterprises in the process of borrowing and considering the increase of evaluation characteristics. The existing default risk evaluation mostly considers the static evaluation (dynamic evaluation) of the same evaluation characteristics at a certain time (a certain time series). In the big data environment, the features used for evaluation are growing explosively. It is unrealistic and infeasible for banks to rebuild the evaluation model for each additional feature. The process evaluation of pedagogy is introduced into the default risk evaluation for the first time. Considering the multi-dimensional data background, from the perspective of adding new criteria and new indicators, four ways are proposed to construct the default risk evaluation structure in the credit process: one is to reconstruct the default risk evaluation model every time an index or a criterion layer is added; the second is to construct the evaluation model independently for each criterion layer, and take the evaluation result of each criterion evaluation model as the input variable to construct the default risk evaluation model; the third is to construct the default risk evaluation model by taking the latest evaluation result and all indicators in the newly added as the input variable; the fourth method is to build a default risk evaluation model by taking" the latest k evaluation results and all indicators in the newly added as input variables. Taking the actual loan data of small enterprises of a commercial bank in China since 1994 as the object, an empirical study is made by establishing a neural network model. The research shows that there is no significant difference in the discrimination accuracy of the default risk evaluation model constructed by the above four methods. Meanwhile, mode 2 has higher discrimination accuracy, which can dynamically update the evaluation model in time under the background of big data, and save operation time and complexity.
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    Joint Decision-Making of Loan-to-Value Ratios and Logistics Service Effort Level of Exporting Offshore/In-Transit Inventory Financing Based on Mixture CVaR Criterion
    DIAO Shu-jie, KUANG Hai-bo, ZHU Jia-yu, MENG Bin
    2023, 31 (5):  93-103.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1496
    Abstract ( 427 )   PDF (1216KB) ( 880 )   Save
    The exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing services transfer shipping firms into both funds provider and marine logistics services supplier, which gives rise to integrated decision-making problem of the loan-to-value ratios and logistics service level. It is difficult for shipping firms to remain completely rational due to multiple uncertainties, thus the decision-making results often deviate from the optimal. Under the assumption of bounded rationality, this paper introduces the mixture CVaR criterion to construct a decision model for exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing and discuss the joint decisions of loan-to-value ratios and logistics service effort level considering three different risk attitudes at the same time. Considering the long time and high risk of maritime transport, this paper first elaborates a multiplicative stochastic demand function to reflect the negative relationship between the price of collaterals and market demand, and includes the influence of logistics service effort level on the liquidity of collaterals into the demand function. Then, a critical point of demand is calculated based on whether the end-of-term value of collaterals can repay the loan and shipping service fees. Based on this, the subsection function of shipping firm's income is constructed. Further, risk attitude factor in the mixed CVaR model is introduced to build objective function which can reflect different risk attitude of the shipping firm and calculate the optimal loan-to-value ratio and logistics services effort level. The dual tasks of logistics and financing service offered by shipping firms are reflected by considering the influence of logistics service level on the value of collaterals and the benefit of loan. The application of mixed CVaR model makes up for the inadequacy of existing literature that methods applied in logistics finance can only reflect characteristics of risk aversion. The results show that the loan-to-value ratio is positively correlated with logistics service effort level, the two have complementary effect. The optimal decision value under risk preference is the highest, while the decision value under risk aversion is the lowest. When the price elasticity of demand is at a low level, the optimal logistics service effort level is positively correlated with the price of collateral. When the price elasticity is higher than a certain threshold, the price of collaterals is negatively correlated with the optimal joint decision which demonstrates the decisions of loan and logistics service tend to be conservative. Shipping firms must utilize their control of collateral information and give play to the supplementary effect of maritime logistics services on loan business to provide specialized and differentiated logistics financial services as well as develop flexible risk management strategies.
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    Is Shanghai Gold a Hedge and a Safe Haven for the RMB?——Based on the Constant and Time-varying Copula Models
    LIN Juan, WU Chun-xiao, ZHANG Ming
    2023, 31 (5):  104-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1710
    Abstract ( 419 )   PDF (2137KB) ( 1148 )   Save
    This paper investigates whether Shanghai gold can hedge against RMB exchange rate risks in the process of RMB internationalization, particularly under extreme market conditions. We use constant and GAS time-varying Copula models to analyze the data of seven RMB exchange rates and Shanghai gold prices from August 17, 2015, to December 31, 2019. We find that Shanghai gold can generally serve as a hedge against RMB movements against the euro, Australian dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound and the currencies of its main trading partners presented by the BIS effective exchange rate. The symmetric tail dependence between the returns of gold and exchange rates indicates that gold can act as a reliable safe haven in the event of extreme RMB movements against these currencies. Furthermore, the dependence between Shanghai gold and JPY/CNY changes over time. Shanghai gold is a hedge and a safe haven against JPY/CNY exchange rate risks throughout the considered sample period.
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    Exercises of Coercive Power under Imbalanced Power Structure in Marketing Channels: Testing Z Model
    WEI Rui-feng, ZHUANG Gui-jun, PANG Fang-lan
    2023, 31 (5):  132-140.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1331
    Abstract ( 287 )   PDF (1005KB) ( 338 )   Save
    Interfirm power and its exercises have been considered as one of important tools for marketing channel management and intensively studied by researchers. Bilateral deterrence theory and conflict spiral theory are the two theories frequently applied for explaining the relationship between Interfirm power and its exercises. Nevertheless, different cognitive variables playing a mediating role in the two theories will lead to different and even contradictory predictions. In 2014, Zhuang et al. discussed the appropriateness of the two theories in the study of channel power and concluded that bilateral deterrence theory was more appropriate and proposed a revised model of Lawler’s bilateral deterrence model, namely Z model. Since the two mediators of cognitive variables in Z model, namely “fear of retaliation” and “expectation of attack”, have not been empirically tested, the appropriateness of Z model could not be truly confirmed. To fill this gap, this paper tests the mediating role of the two cognitive variables between channel power and its use.
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    Effects of the Store-within-a-store Mode on Production and Sales Effort Strategy of a Capital Constrained Supply Chain
    NIE Fu-hai, LI Dian-sheng, XIAO Ting-ting
    2023, 31 (5):  141-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1349
    Abstract ( 339 )   PDF (1456KB) ( 831 )   Save
    As supply chain problems such as the bullwhip effect are becoming more prominent, more and more enterprises such as LV and Channel begin to adopt the store-within-a-store mode. Compared with the traditional wholesale and retail mode, the manufacturer adopting the store-within-a-store mode directly takes charge of production, inventory, sales and so on, faces more demand and process uncertainties, bears higher operation costs, and may lack funds.
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    Optimization of Contactless Distribution of Medical Protective Materials During the Outbreak of Spreading Epidemic Disease
    HU Hui, TANG Zi-qi, LIU Fu-xin, WANG Yu-qin, HE Xiong-fei, ZHAO Jiao
    2023, 31 (5):  152-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1925
    Abstract ( 420 )   PDF (1991KB) ( 1019 )   Save
    Aiming at the contactless distribution mode for unmanned vehicle to deliver medical protective materials, an optimization model of unmanned vehicle distribution for medical protective materials considering the priority level of hospitals is established. According to the characteristics of real-time path planning, in the initial planning stage, with the objectives of shortest delivery time and highest comprehensive satisfaction rate, the dispatching paths of unmanned vehicles and material distribution are preliminarily planned. When the road condition information changes in an emergency, the paths are adjusted in real time based on the local update strategy to better meet the timeliness of the distribution. In order to improve the defects of the standard genetic algorithm (SGA), such as local search easily falling into prematurity and population evolution stagnation in later stage, genetic & simulated annealing algorithm (GSA) is designed to amplify individual differences with similar fitness, so as to make the effect of offspring of excellent individuals more obvious. Finally, the distribution of medical protective materials in Jianghan district and Jiangan district of Wuhan city under the new coronavirus epidemic is taken as an example to verify the model and algorithm. The results show that the model constructed can find the optimized distribution solution based on the realtime information of road network, and the GSA is more stable than SGA. Compared with the SGA, the GSA is more stable and the quality of solution is higher. Compared with the traditional model, the longer the vehicles pass through the congested road, the more obvious the advantages of the unmanned vehicle distribution model.
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    Hydrogenation Infrastructure Network Optimization Considering Industrial Layout and Customer Satisfaction
    XIANG Yin
    2023, 31 (5):  164-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0826
    Abstract ( 441 )   PDF (1894KB) ( 1327 )   Save
    Our country is now promoting the development of hydrogen automobile industry, but the lack of hydrogen refueling stations and the bottleneck of the infrastructure network currently restricts the development of this industry. Different from the location problem of charging stations, the hydrogenation infrastructure network optimization problem not only involves the facility location of both hydrogenation stations and hydrogen production plants, but also involves the hydrogen transportation problem between stations and plants.
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    Research on Pricing of Competitive Network Freight Platform under Different Information Strategy
    GUI Yun-miao, CHENG Jing, GONG Ben-gang
    2023, 31 (5):  176-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1729
    Abstract ( 413 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 1220 )   Save
    With the wide application of information technology, information strategy has become an important means to coordinate the supply and demand of many logistics platforms. As information coordinators, bilateral platforms strategically hide part of market information or control the information obtained by users to maximize their own interests. As a new type of bilateral platform, the network freight platform is facing different information levels between shippers and carriers. Therefore, how to make the optimal price and choose the optimal information strategy under the incomplete information user becomes an important issue for the sustainable development of network freight platform. Starting from providing different information strategies, a pricing model based on Hotelling, an oligopolistic competitive network freight platform is constructed, and the optimal pricing of the platform under different information strategies is discussed from four different user ownership perspectives. Through comparative analysis, it is found that no matter what kind of users they belong to, the platform pricing for bilateral users is equal. Under bilateral orders the shipper’s, price is equal to that when the platform provides incomplete information strategy to both bilateral users and incomplete information strategy only to the carrier, which is greater than that when the platform provides incomplete information strategy only to the shipper. The carrier's price is equal when the platform provides an incomplete information policy for both bilateral users and when the platform provides an incomplete information policy only for the shipper. When the network externality of shipper side is larger than a certain value, the carrier’s price is the highest when the platform only provides incomplete information strategy to the shipper. Under the carrier multi-homing, the price of the shipper is the highest when the incomplete information strategy is provided to both users of the platform and the network externality of shipper side is within a certain threshold range, and it is the lowest when the incomplete information strategy is provided to the shipper only. In the case of bilateral multi-ownership, the shipper’s price is highest when the platform only provides incomplete information strategy to the carrier. Carrier prices are highest when the platform provides an incomplete information strategy only to the shipper. In the case of bilateral single ownership or unilateral multiple ownership, when the network externality of the shipper side is within a certain threshold range, it is more advantageous for the network freight platform to choose the strategy of providing incomplete information to both bilateral users. When bilateral ownership is multiple, it is more advantageous for the platform to choose a strategy that only provides incomplete information to the shipper. The optimal pricing strategies are analyzed under each user ownership situation through comparative analysis, and the conclusions obtained has strong theoretical significance and can provide some reference for practical operation.
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    The Research on the Quality Cost Sharing Contract in the Retailer-led Supply Chain Based on Product Liability
    FAN Jian-chang, FU Hong, HONG Ding-jun, WAN Na-na
    2023, 31 (5):  187-197.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1493
    Abstract ( 383 )   PDF (1460KB) ( 1129 )   Save
    Product safety issues caused by low-quality products have become a major issue in supply chain operation management. Product safety incidents have been frequent in recent years. For example, in 2006, Dell recalled nearly 4.1 million Sony Corp notebook computer batteries that could catch fire, costing Dell more than 400 million dollars. In 2007, Tesla was forced to recall more than 50,000 Model X vehicles due to a faulty design in its supplier BremboSpA’s parking brake system. This recall has also resulted in a huge loss in Tesla’s market value. These cases reveal that a downstream firm that dominates the supply chain often bears product liability for product safety events caused by quality defects in a component made by its upstream suppliers. Therefore, it has become a crucial problem for the core downstream firm in the supply chain to design an effective incentive contract to motivate upstream suppliers to improve the quality level and reduce the increased liability costs.
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