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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 May 2022, Volume 30 Issue 5 Previous Issue   
    Articles
    Top Level Layout and Specific Contents of Key Frontier Areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period: Towards Basic Scientific Theory and National Major Needs
    YU Yu-gang, ZHENG Sheng-ming, LI Jian-ping, LI Min-qiang, SHU Jia, WU Jian-jun
    2022, 30 (5):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.001
    Abstract ( 567 )   PDF (2153KB) ( 1066 )   Save
    It is one of the important research contents of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan in Management Science and Engineering to determine key frontier areas which are suitable for China’s national conditions and can meet the requirements of China’s specific economic and social development objectives during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The the research ideas and work of the key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are introduced in this paper. Firstly, the overall framework of key frontier areas of Management Science and Engineering during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is determined considering the discipline development goals of improving the research level of basic theory and serving the national major needs under the change of the times. The overall framework consisting of major driving factors and strategic research directions is obtained based on expert discussion and questionnaire survey. Then, the specific contents of key frontier areas, including 59 areas at discipline level and 8 areas at interdisciplinary level, are determined, through questionnaire collection, peer review, proposal submission and modification, etc. These key frontier areas gather the collective wisdom of the majority of experts and scholars and give clearer directional guidance, which is conducive to the advance layout of key basic fields and the rapid development of research fields related to national major needs.
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    Research on Technology-Driven Management Science and Engineering
    LI Jian-ping, WU Deng-sheng, HAO Jun
    2022, 30 (5):  9-14.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.002
    Abstract ( 217 )   PDF (679KB) ( 564 )   Save
    Technological innovation leads to technological change and technology that accelerates change is reshaping the new pattern and situation of the world’s political, economic, and social development. A series of management decision-making problems in new scenarios and new environments, such as new generation mobile communication, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, rail transit and construction engineering, medical engineering, energy, and environmental engineering, has opened a new situation in the research of management science and engineering disciplines and put forward new requirements and challenges. By systematically sorting out and summarizing relevant literature and projects, the development trend of critical technologies in management science and engineering is expounded on. It combines the results of questionnaires and interviews with authoritative experts in the field. Based on the integration of new technologies and the application of new industries, the leading research directions of management science and engineering-driven by technology are summarized.
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    Research on Development of Management Science and Engineering Rooted in Chinese Management Practices
    LI Min-qiang, FENG Hai-yang
    2022, 30 (5):  15-20.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.003
    Abstract ( 166 )   PDF (719KB) ( 456 )   Save
    This paper attempts to explicate the basic characteristics and development trends of management science and engineering rooted in Chinese management practices through literature review, expert survey, and case study of successful engineering projects in China. Our results reveal that more and more papers in world-wide management journals conducted their investigation based on the Chinese statistical data, practical cases, experiences and insights. These studies considered specifically or in general the Chinese realities, including culture, national institution, and strategies, revealing the complexity and interdisciplinarity of management science and engineering in the Chinese scenarios. The pending research issues and development trends of two potential topics are also present: “Management Science and Engineering based on Chinese Leading Engineering Projects” and “Management Science and Engineering Oriented for the Development of Key and Core Technologies”.
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    Research on Management Science and Engineering under Global Changes
    WU Jian-jun, LV Ying
    2022, 30 (5):  21-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.004
    Abstract ( 143 )   PDF (985KB) ( 421 )   Save
    Changes in the world economy and science and technology are major driving forces for the global changes. Competition and cooperation among countries will become common for county relations. Human development will also face unprecedented challenges. Under such a situation, typical problems such as risk management of the global supply chain, friction in international trade, changes in international cooperation, overseas major project management, and public health emergencies have put forward new requirements for management science and engineering research. Based on the related literature and project review, the research basis and advantages in the field are analyzed. Finally, the major research directions based on surveys from experts are summarized.
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    Several Priority Frontiers in Theoretical and Methodological Breakthroughs of Management Science and Engineering
    SHU Jia, DING Yi, NI Wen-jun
    2022, 30 (5):  27-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.05.005
    Abstract ( 208 )   PDF (472KB) ( 566 )   Save
    Under the guidance and support of the Department of Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the research team summarizes the key frontiers in the development of management science and engineering discipline for the “14th Five-Year Plan” based on surveys and several rounds of expert reviews. The article reports several key frontiers that urgently need theoretical and methodological breakthroughs from two perspectives: operations research and business analytics, respectively.
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    Mean-VaR Model Based on the Asymmetric Laplace Distribution
    HUANG Jin-bo, WU Li-li, YOU Yi-ling
    2022, 30 (5):  31-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1681
    Abstract ( 109 )   PDF (2072KB) ( 298 )   Save
    As a popular risk measurement, the Value at Risk (VaR) has been widely concerned by the industry and academia since it was proposed by Morgan in 1994. While VaR is intuitive in risk management practice and simple in its definition, it has several notorious limitations and drawbacks such as its insensitivity to the magnitude of losses beyond VaR, non-qualification as a coherent risk measure and its non-convexity with respect to the portfolio weights which results in computational difficulties under the general distribution. At present, a good analytical solution of VaR-based model is mostly obtained under the normal distribution. However, the financial time series generally represent asymmetric leptokurtic features, so that the normal distribution hypothesis will increase the systematic biases of risk estimation. Among many probability distributions, the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) allows the heavy tail and asymmetry, and has been widely used to fit the distribution of financial assets’ return and measure tail risk,but its application in the portfolio selection has not been mature. In view of this, supposing assets’ return follows ALD, the VaR’s analytical formula is obtained and a novel mean-VaR model is proposed. In theory, it is proved that the model is a convex optimization problem and can be transferred into a quadratic programming problem. Furthermore, the global optimal analytical solution of the model can be easily obtained and then the analytical formula of portfolio frontier can be derived with and without a risk-free asset respectively.Finally, 308 weekly yield data of SSE50 and its components from January 2012 to December 2017 are collected for empirical analysis, which shows that the mean-VaR model based on ALD performs better than indexation investment. In a word, there are two main conclusions in this paper. On the one hand, by comparing the VaR under two different distributions, it is found that with the increase of the mean value of portfolio return, the tail risk under ALD is smaller than that under normal distribution. On the other hand, because the analytical expression of the VaR under ALD is a convex function of portfolio position, the global optimal analytical solution of the mean-VaR model can also be easily obtained. Therefore, the research achievement of this paper can enrich and deepen the theories of asset allocation and risk management; in practice, our works can improve investors’ trade strategies and provide more accurate risk measure techniques to prevent financial market risks for enterprises and governments.
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    Dynamic Confidence Interval of the Critical Time of Chinese Stock Market Bubble Crash
    YU Xiao-jian, CHENG Yu, XIAO Wei-lin
    2022, 30 (5):  41-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1705
    Abstract ( 111 )   PDF (3477KB) ( 234 )   Save
    Bubble refers to the explosive growth of asset prices, and the crash is rapidly decline of stock or stock index after the bubble bursts. A series of asset prices plummet in a short period of time causing a sharp oscillation in the stock market, which in turn damage the asset interests of investorsand disrupt the orderly development of the capital market.In this paper, a new method is developed through the Log-Periodic Power Law Model (LPPL) to help investors identify bubbles and track the risks of bubbles in financial activities effectively. The LPPL model is ln[p(t)]=A+(tc-t)α{B+Ccos[ωln(tc-t)+φ]}, where ln[p(t)] is the logarithm of assets price, α is the exponent of the power law growth and tc is the critical point of bubble burst.The two big bull market crashes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index (CSI 300) in 2007 and 2015 are studied. Based on the LPPL model, two methods including “rolling window” and “fixing the initial point and moving the end point” are introduced for resampling, then out-of-sample prediction daily is made to calculate the critical point of the bubble bursts and construct the dynamic confidence intervals for the bubble critical times respectively. Theempirical results show that the confidence interval of the critical times can basically cover the time when the bubbles crash actually occurs as time goes by. Compared with the simple method that use the LPPL model to predict the single critical time, the confidence interval method overcomes the randomness of the critical time prediction well, and also well display the change trajectory of the stock market bubble critical interval. The innovative method of this paper provides an effective tool for the risk management, which is a beneficial expansion for the researches of the crash early warning.
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    Research on the Risk Dependence and Dynamic Evolution among A Share Financial Sectors in China
    WU Xian-bo, HUI Xiao-feng
    2022, 30 (5):  54-64.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2347
    Abstract ( 103 )   PDF (1537KB) ( 238 )   Save
    In recent years, with the deepening of China's financial reform, the financial liberalization and mixed operation of financial institutions have greatly improved the business and capital flow between different financial sectors and financial institutions. The risk dependence between different financial markets and different financial institutions, and the change of the dependence relationship in different periods are concerned by the academia, especially the financial regulatory authorities. In the process of financial reform, it is particularly important to prevent and resolve financial risks and maintain financial stability. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to effectively measure the risk linkage between financial institutions and find the dynamic evolution law of risk dependence. In this paper, the China’s financial sector is divided into 6 major financial sub sectors, namely, state-owned banks, national shareholding banks, city commercial banks, securities, insurance and trust. Taking China's stock market turbulence in 2015 and the COVID-19 as the research background, the risk dependence and dynamic evolution of 6 financial sub sectors in the two different backgrounds are analyzed. In this paper, the risk dependence network of the financial sector is constructed by calculating the mutual information of the volatility indexes among the sub sectors, the maximum spanning tree is used to describe the core structure of the dependence, and the sliding window is used to examine the dynamic evolution of the dependence relationship. The results show that, firstly, when the market is in a relatively calm period, the risk dependence between banking sector and non banking sector is weak and relatively fragmented, which is more obvious during the background of COVID-19; Secondly, when the state of market trend fluctuates greatly, which is in the bull period and turbulence period of China’s stock market turbulence in 2015, as well as the epidemic period in the COVID-19 background, the risk dependence between the banking sector and the non banking sector is enhanced, and in this process, the insurance sector becomes an important intermediate node; Finally, in 2015, the state-owned banks and city commercial banks become the largest risk nodes respectively in China’s stock market turbulence in 2015 and in the COVID-19 background. Therefore, in order to better maintain the stability of China’s financial system, it should be paid more attention to the banking institutions, when the fluctuation of economic and social status is violent, the important role of insurance sector in risk transmission should be noticed.
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    Credit Risk Evaluation Model and Empirical Research Based on Focal Loss Modified Cross-Entropy Loss Function
    YANG Lian, SHI Bao-feng
    2022, 30 (5):  65-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2188
    Abstract ( 90 )   PDF (2014KB) ( 409 )   Save
    Credit evaluation model plays an important role in helping financial institutions to identify default risk. However, due to the imbalance of the proportion of default and non-default samples, there are the phenomena of over-recognition for non-default samples and under-recognition for default samples. Some of default samples, named hard samples, are difficult to be identified. Therefore, the key to improve the prediction performance of the model is to improve its ability to recognize the hard samples. In practice, the existing deep learning credit evaluation model, which takes the Cross Entropy as the loss function, considers that there is no difference between the contribution of the hard samples and the simple samples to the target loss. It affects the effective identification of hard samples by the model.
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    Can FinTech Credit Scale Stimulate Financial Institutions to Increase the Proportion of Agricultural-related Loans?
    CHEN Xiao-hui, ZHANG Hong-wei, WEN Jia, WU Yong-chao
    2022, 30 (5):  76-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1262
    Abstract ( 66 )   PDF (1099KB) ( 169 )   Save
    FinTech has improved the risk-taking level of financial institutions. As one kind of important FinTech, can the scale of FinTech credit of non-financial institutions stimulate the financial institutions to increase the investment of agricultural-related loans and raise the proportion of agricultural-related loans due to the improvement of risk-taking level?
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    The Effectiveness of Momentum Factor Tracking Strategy: Evidence from China Stock Market
    JIANG Chong-hui, LIU Lin
    2022, 30 (5):  86-97.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1569
    Abstract ( 68 )   PDF (1738KB) ( 171 )   Save
    It is documented in the literature that the momentum and reversal effects are very prevalent in both oversea and China stock market. However, Chinese investors cannot implement the well-known momentum/reversal strategy directly to make profit due to various trading restrictions. A momentum factor tracking strategy is proposed that minimizes the variance of the difference in returns between a target portfolio and momentum factor. The momentum factor tracking model is established and solved, and the properties of the optimal portfolio are analyzed. It is found that the optimal momentum factor tracking portfolio satisfies two-fund-separation theorem, in which the two funds are momentum factor mimicking portfolio and minimum-variance portfolio determined in the traditional mean-variance model. Using ten industry indices of HS300 as risky assets in the investment universe, the performance for various momentum factor tracking portfolios is investigated and is compared with that of equally weighted portfolio (EWP) and minimum-variance portfolio (MVP). The results show that, momentum factor tracking portfolios outperform EWP and MVP, measured by expected excess return, Sharpe ratio and net Sharpe ratio. The superior performance of the momentum factor tracking portfolios are attributed to these portfolios’ ability to capture the momentum or reversal effect in stock market. To a large extent, the effectiveness of momentum factor tracking strategy is justified so that the strategy can act as a reference for asset allocation in China stock market.
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    Model Research on Competition Strategy Choice of Enterprises under Equity Financing
    WANG Yu, ZHAI Jia, DENG Jie
    2022, 30 (5):  98-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1211
    Abstract ( 100 )   PDF (2978KB) ( 198 )   Save
    The formulation of market competition strategy of enterprise should not only focus on the operational factors of both competitors, but also consider the influence of its capital operation. However, the literature has focused on the interaction between market competition and debt financing, but been silent on the effect of equity financing on market competition. Present study considers two Bertrand retailers, in which one retailer faces good market opportunity and employs equity financing to exploit the market. Its demand function becomes D1=a1-b1p1+γ1p2+β1e, where β1and e represent its growth and effort, respectively. The market development will directly influence the demand of its competitor and change it to D2=a2-b2p2+γ2p1+β2e, where β2 is called as externality of market development. The valuation of financing retailer is set as V, so the equity of its shareholders changes to V/(V+B). Based on these, a Bertrand competition model is constructed under equity financing, and the competition strategy choice and its influencing factors are investigated, such as the principal-agent behavior of shareholders. Additionally, a numerical simulation whose parameters are partly based on the data of Chinese stock market is also present to clearly reveal the competition strategy choice. Core research indicates that retailer’s competition strategy depends on its growth as well as externality of market development. Increasing the growth or enhancing the externality are both able to promote the equity financing of the retailer, while the principal-agent behavior of shareholders could impede it. Additionally,this behavior has effect on the market development decision, though the price competition strategy would not be qualitatively changed. Moreover, the competitor must take actions to avoid falling into the “growth trap of financing enterprise” under negative externality. The results not only contribute to the competition strategy choice of growth enterprise and the exploration of the interaction between market competition and equity financing, but also provide insight into the model research of equity financing from the perspective of enterprise operation.
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    Pricing Mechanism of Sequential Auction for the Construction Land and Its Quota
    LIU Jing-yu, MENG Wei-dong, HUANG Bo, LI Yu-yu
    2022, 30 (5):  109-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2095
    Abstract ( 55 )   PDF (1501KB) ( 208 )   Save
    With the accelerating urbanization in China, the paradox between the idle homesteads in rural area and the shortage of construction land in urban area due to the lack of quota became more and more intensified. Hence, local governments encourage farmers to reclaim their idle homesteads into farmland to generate quota. However, the current price of quota, which is based on the cost of land reclamation, is unable to motivate farmers. Therefore, according to the main characteristics of the quota transaction, the first price sealed-bid sequential auction and the second price sealed-bid sequential auction are built with complementarity. Furthermore, the influence of relevant factors on the bidding price of construction land and its quota is studied through theoretical and numerical analysis under two kinds of sequential auction. The results indicate that the bidding price of the quota is affected by the number of bidders and the fine on a developer for it delaying construction. More specifically, under two kinds of sequential auction, the bidding price decreases with the increase of the number of bidders, but increases with the rise of the fine. And the bidding price of the bidder who gets the quota in the land auction increases with the increase of the parameter of land price appreciation. It is found that the bidding price of quota and construction land in second price seal-bid auction are higher. Then, it is recommended that the local governments should appropriately increase the fine for delaying construction to raise the bidding price of the quota. As a result, the farmers’ income is raised and more farmers are encouraged to reclaim idle homesteads. It might also be beneficial for easing conflict between demand of construction land and farmland protection, and further promoting the sustainable development of China’s social economy. Meanwhile, in the second price sealed-bid auction, the bidder who wins the quota has a higher probability to obtain the construction land, which is more conducive to improve the utilization efficiency of the quota and construction land, and realize the optimal allocation of land resources.
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    The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s High-quality Economic Development——Index DEA and Panel Partition Regression Analysis
    ZHOU Zhong-bao, DENG Li, XIAO He-lu, WU Shi-jian, LIU Wen-bin
    2022, 30 (5):  118-130.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1040
    Abstract ( 95 )   PDF (1536KB) ( 382 )   Save
    In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has introduced a large number of foreign direct investment (FDI), which not only increased the capital supply and labor demand, but also promoted China’s economic growth and development. The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. In order to explore whether FDI will affect our country’s economy to develop high quality, based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016, from the economic fundamentals, the achievements of social development and ecological environment in three dimensions, the Index DEA model is adopted, the high quality and economic development Index are constructed, and then the panel quantile regression is used to explore the impact of FDI on the high-quality development of the economy. It is found that FDI can have a significant positive effect on the high-quality development of the economy in the central and western regions, and can promote the high-quality development of the local economy, while it has an opposite effect on the eastern region. The panel segmentation results show that FDI has an uncertain impact on the high-quality development of regional economy under the segmentation of 10%-30%, while FDI has a significant positive impact on the high-quality development of regional economy under the segmentation of 40%-80%.This will provide reference for studying the high-quality development of China’s regional economy, and provide enlightenment for local governments to reasonably introduce foreign direct investment and realize the transformation from the stage of economic growth to the stage of high-quality economic development.
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    Innovative Pivots or Conservative Shackles: How Can Green Supply Chain Management Practices Spur Corporate Performance?
    XIE Xue-mei, ZHU Qi-wei
    2022, 30 (5):  131-143.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0999
    Abstract ( 100 )   PDF (1822KB) ( 270 )   Save
    Although previous studies have found that both green supply chain management practices and green innovationcan impact firms’ performance, and few have examined the internal mechanism of green innovation between the green supply chain management practices and firms’ performance. Based on the knowledge-based view, a three-order moderated mediation model is constructed in this research by introducing the variables of ambidextrous knowledge search and green social capital to explore the deep-seated mechanism of green supply chain management practices on green innovation and firms’ performance.The results show that firms’ performance can be significantly improved by green supply chain management practices, and green innovation plays a mediation role in the above relationship. Moreover, the mediating effect is further positively moderated by ambidextrous knowledge search, and green social capital positively moderates the moderating impact of ambidextrous knowledge search on the relationship between green supply chain management practices and green innovation. Overall, this study not only deepens the theoretical research of green supply chain management but also provides practical implications for firms to benefit from green supply chain management practices and green innovation.
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    Research on Vehicle Routing Problem with Truck and Drone Considering Regional Restriction
    YAN Rui, CHEN Li-shuang, ZHU Xiao-ning, TIAN Hao-tong, WEN Ya, ZHANG Qun
    2022, 30 (5):  144-155.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0755
    Abstract ( 106 )   PDF (2540KB) ( 195 )   Save
    As the new force of modern transportation system, drone has many irreplaceable advantages, such as its high efficiency and flexibility, easy control, low energy consumption, and no occupation of road resources. But it is also restricted by many factors, such as the flight distance, complex flight environment and the law and policy barriers, which leads to the failure of drone to carry out the large-scale logistics distribution tasks. Therefore, the logistics operation mode of collaborating with truck has become the inevitable choice for the large-scale application of drone in terminal logistics distribution, emergency items distribution, military air transportation and other fields. This new logistics operation mode brings great challenges to the theory and practice of vehicle routing problem. In recent three years, scholars begin to pay more attention to this issue.
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    Research on E-commerce Supply Chain Decision Based on Different Supply Chain Powers of Third-Party Logistics Service Provider
    LIU Ren-jun, LUO Yu-jia
    2022, 30 (5):  156-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0811
    Abstract ( 77 )   PDF (3206KB) ( 136 )   Save
    Strongly supported by government subsidies, third-party logistics companies significantly improve logistics services to attract online orders for the right to speak in e-commerce supply chain. By analyzing cost structure of third-party logistics service provider, the total logistics cost is broken down into fixed investment cost and variable operation cost. Logistics service affects both market demand and variable operation cost. In our model, three power structure scenarios are considered based on different supply chain powers of third-party logistics service provider, namely service provider dominant mode, logistics service provider vice-dominant mode and logistics service provider following mode, to examine the impact of power structure on supply chain decision-making. Our results reveal that the power of third-party logistics service provider does have an influence on supply chain decisions in e-commerce logistics outsourcing supply chain. Specifically, the smaller power the third-party logistics service provider has, the greater the logistics service level, market size, manufacturer profit and online retailer profit would be. Besides, wholesale price, retail price, and logistics service provider's profit relationship under different power structures are jointly affected by the logistics investment coefficient and logistics distribution costs. Under certain conditions, the e-commerce logistics outsourcing supply chain reaches Pareto optimal solution. In addition, decreasing logistics service investment coefficient and increasing logistics service cost coefficient and unit logistics charge can positively enhance the logistics service level, market demand and profits of the manufacturer and e-retailer. Based on sensitivity analysis, the functions of two types of government subsidy incentives are studied so that suggestions can be provided for policy makers and supply chain parties.
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    Strategic Introduction of the Marketplace Channel Considering E-commerce Platform Service Investment
    DUAN Yu-lan, WANG Yong
    2022, 30 (5):  167-179.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1382
    Abstract ( 93 )   PDF (1936KB) ( 179 )   Save
    There are two main sales channels for the e-commerce platform: (1) reseller channel, the manufacturer wholesales products to the e-commerce platform, the ownership of the products belongs to the e-commerce platform;(2) marketplace channel, the manufacturer opens a flagship store or a specialty store on the e-commerce platform to directly sell to the consumer, pays a certain commission fee to the e-commerce platform according to the product category, and the ownership of the product belongs to the manufacturer. In recent years, some e-commerce platforms (such as JD.com, Amazon, etc.) that initially only have reseller channel have introduced the marketplace channel. After the introduction of the marketplace channel, channels on the e-commerce platform are highly competitive. Since the e-commerce platform has ownership of reseller channel products, therefore, most e-commerce platforms increase the competitiveness of reseller channel through service investment.
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    Long-term Effective Mechanism and Construction for Dynamic Evaluation
    HUANG Shi-tong, ZHAO Xi-nan, ZHOU Yan
    2022, 30 (5):  180-191.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.1158
    Abstract ( 76 )   PDF (1727KB) ( 323 )   Save
    The dynamic development of things increases the demand of dynamic evaluation methods. The static evaluation method solves problems of “utility measurement” and “ranking” that can be compared between the evaluated objects (decision making units).On the basis of the static evaluation, the dynamic evaluation method needs to solve the problem of comparing the evaluated objects’ “utility measurement” and “ranking” at their different periods. It requires the evaluation model and data standardization method possessing more long-term utility.At present, there are two widely used ways of dynamic evaluation: In the first one, according to the index information of each period, the traditional static evaluation is carried out to obtain the evaluated objects’ evaluation value, which is later utilized and processed to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value of various periods on multiple indexes of period.The second one integrates the index value of the evaluated object through the time synthesis on the index system, and then used the static evaluation method to get the final dynamic evaluation value. Both the dynamic evaluation ways need to determine the weight for the evaluation values of each time period.These two mentioned standardization methods, whether respectively standardized according to each time period, or standardized the data of several time periods, share the same problem of dynamic evaluation: the former one, which maps the data of each period to a unified interval, covers the overall differences of evaluated objects in each period, which may lose the compatibility and objectivity of the evaluation results of different period. The latter one, which can support the dynamic comparison between various periods, is sort of a “static” process that runs through these periods. Further, its evaluation result is only valid within the unified standardization of the various periods and is difficult to adapt to a new period. Therefore, although there are several methods of dynamic evaluation have been presented at present, there is still a lack of research on the analysis and construction of dynamic evaluation methods from the viewpoint of the effectiveness of dynamic evaluation. In this paper, a principle of building a long-term effective dynamic evaluation mechanism is put forward:based on judgment and processing of the long-term effectiveness of various evaluation techniques, this principle is composed of the classification of index types, the data standardization method of “datum period regression” which lacks the long-term effectiveness, and the selection of long-term effective evaluation methods, and integration of the overall evaluation mechanism.This paper is organized as following: Initially, the common evaluation data is classified into three types (natural data, social data related to money and artificial data obtained through expert consulting methods) and a long-term processing method for these data is put forward. Furthermore, a data standardization method called “datum period regression” is presented. Additionally, the Jingyou evaluation method based on linear weighted model is adopted to construct a dynamic evaluation mechanism of objective and democratic. Finally, a dynamic evaluation is conducted on technological innovation capability for four municipalities in China, by which the practical effectiveness of the result of this paper is proved. The evaluation method proposed by this paperenriches the comprehensive evaluation method and can be studied and applied more widely.
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    Information Disclosure Strategies in the E-Commerce Platform
    YU Hang, TIAN Lin, CHEN Yun
    2022, 30 (5):  192-203.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0355
    Abstract ( 122 )   PDF (1555KB) ( 194 )   Save
    In the e-commerce platform mode, the supplier determines the product price, sells the product directly to consumers and shares the revenue with the platform. Usually, there exists information asymmetry in product (matching) attributes between consumers and product suppliers/platforms. In reality, a consumer is not certain about whether his private taste matches a product unless firms provide some information, and he will make an expectation about his matchness for that product if no information is provided. To resolve consumers’ fit uncertainty, a seller faces two complicated issues: how to offer product information for consumers and how much?What makes this issue more complicated is that even platforms can directly disclose product information.
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    Behavior-based Pricing in Two Competitive Supply Chains Considering Peer-induced Consumer Fairness Preference
    LIU Jing, NIE Jia-jia, YUAN Hong-ping
    2022, 30 (5):  204-215.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0923
    Abstract ( 111 )   PDF (1383KB) ( 264 )   Save
    With the advancement of information technology, retailers often use data automatic collection devices to track and store information about consumers’ purchase history data, and thus new consumers and past consumers can be recognized. Not surprisingly, retailers often adopt the behavior-based pricing (BBP) strategy, i.e., to charge a different price for new consumers and past consumers. Additionally, it is observed that retailers sometimes choose to share consumers’ purchase history data with manufacturers, and thus both manufacturers and retailers can adopt BBP strategy. However, the adoption of BBP strategy has raised concerns about peer-induced fairness. That is, consumers will feel unfair if the price they purchase is higher than other consumers, which will consequently affect consumers’ purchase willingness. Following this logic, the question naturally comes out: when consumers are concerned about peer-induced fairness, is there any difference in different supply chain members’ adoption of BBP? And further, what is the difference?
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    Information Goods Online Pricing Model Selection Strategies in the Presence of Piracy
    MA Jing-pei, LI Wen-li
    2022, 30 (5):  216-225.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0374
    Abstract ( 57 )   PDF (2029KB) ( 84 )   Save
    For online supply chain system consisted of information goods manufacturer and online platform, considering two types of information goods (traditional version and digital version) and the threat of piracy, three online channel cooperation models are developed: single traditional version model (S), two-version wholesale model (W) and two-version agency model (A). In order to provide references for online channel participants in decision-making, the profits under different models are compared and analyzed. The research shows that: When the difference between legal version and piracy version is small, or the intensity of piracy supervision is small, information goods manufacturer and online platform prefer single traditional version model; otherwise, they prefer to two-version model, if the platform commission rate is moderate, the manufacturer and online platform can achieve a win-win outcome under the two-version agency model.
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    Research on Bidirectional Demand Information Sharing in Supply Chain Considering Manufacturer Innovation
    WANG Wen-long, YAO Rui, ZHANG Su-xian
    2022, 30 (5):  226-235.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0248
    Abstract ( 89 )   PDF (1605KB) ( 130 )   Save
    Innovative activities by manufacturers are conducive to promote the overall development of the supply chain. From the existing literature, it is found that market demand information has a huge impact on the profit of the supply chain, and obtaining market demand information is also of great significance for manufacturers to carry out innovative activities. The manufacturer’s innovation is considered and the two-way demand information sharing problem of a two-tier supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer is studied. Both the manufacturer and the retailer have some demand information, and the manufacturer conducts cost reduction innovations. There are four information sharing arrangements, e.g., neither sharing, the manufacturer unilaterally sharing, the retailer unilaterally sharing, both sharing. The equilibrium decisions are analyzed, and ex ante profits of the manufacturer and the retailer are solved to explore the information sharing value. It is found that the innovation investment increments of the manufacturer in the four arrangements of demand information sharing are positively correlated with the acquired demand information, but negatively correlated with the innovation coefficient. The manufacturer’s demand information sharing value is always negative in the case of the manufacturer’s unilateral sharing and mutual sharing of demand information, and is always positive in the case of retailer unilateral sharing. The retailer’s two-way demand information sharing value is negative first and then positive as the manufacturer’s innovation capability increases. The manufacturer innovation is introduced in the research of supply chain two-way demand information sharing, and related research is expanded, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance.
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    Research on the Evolution of Patent Alliance Enterprise Innovation Behavior from the Perspective of Fairness Preference
    XIE Gang, WU Si-yuan, GUO Ben-hai, LI Wen-jian
    2022, 30 (5):  236-247.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1126
    Abstract ( 67 )   PDF (4588KB) ( 105 )   Save
    The typical public goods attributes of patents in the patent pool are given by the patent cross-licensing clauses existing within the patent union. Based on the traditional public goods game view, under the guidance of no effective mechanism, the free riders of the alliance members cannot be avoided, and the group’s falling into the public goods dilemma must be caused by the individual’s pursuit of maximizing benefits. However, it has been verified by a large number of public goods experiments that with the repeated game, even if the supply of public goods generally shows a downward trend, voluntary supply of public goods still exists. It pointed out by some scholars that this phenomenon can be mainly explained by the theory of fair preference. Behavioral economics believes that people in reality care not only about their own interests but also those of others. Therefore, The factors that affect the innovation behavior of patent union members are explored from the perspective of fair preference, which provides a way of thinking for solving the problem of free riders within the patent union.
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    The Optimal Service Contract Design of E-commerce Platform under Dual-channel Manufacturer Cost Information Asymmetry
    WEN Yue, WANG Yong
    2022, 30 (5):  248-262.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1043
    Abstract ( 94 )   PDF (3653KB) ( 123 )   Save
    In recent years, e-commerce platform has achieved great success, which leads to increasing manufacturers opening network channel through the service of e-commerce platform to broaden their distribution channels. However, in the process of contract design, the e-commerce platform faces one possible risk: cost asymmetry; and he/she faces one problem: how to choose the type of contract. Therefore, in the online platform selling model consisting with an e-commerce platform and a dual-channel manufacturer, based on two typical revenue models of e-commerce platform (advertising model and brokerage model), two service contracts (advertising-type and brokerage-type) are designed.
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    From Community Identity to Brand Identity: How to Improve Brand Users’ Mind Share Based on Online Community?
    QIAN Ming-hui, GUO Jia-lu
    2022, 30 (5):  263-274.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1992
    Abstract ( 80 )   PDF (3891KB) ( 128 )   Save
    With the advent of the Web3.0 era, many brands communicate brand information to target consumers through online communities. At the same time, consumers are increasingly relying on online communities for information about brands and products. Therefore, online community has become an important means for brands to maintain consumers’ brand attachment and loyalty and carry out brand marketing. Through the platform of online community, a brand can constantly push advertisements to community members to occupy the minds of consumers, establish a brand image in the minds of consumers that is in line with their personality, and successfully acquire the mental resources of consumers and enhance their brand identity.
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    Value Network Analysis and Driver Paths Study for Organizational Safety Behaviors in Megaproject Based on SVN
    WANG Jing-yi, SHE Jin-feng, DONG Shuang
    2022, 30 (5):  275-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0894
    Abstract ( 61 )   PDF (2914KB) ( 106 )   Save
    The implementation of major infrastructure project (hereinafter referred to as megaproject) involves multiple organizations, which form complex stakeholder relationships. Safety management performance is greatly affected by the effectiveness of cooperation and organizational safety behaviors. In order to explore the effect of organizational safety behavior in megaproject(MOSB) in stakeholder network, stakeholder value network(SVN) analysis method is applied to initially build MOSB-SVN model to visually represent how safety value flow is delivered from one stakeholder to another, which contains 3 types Organizational Safety Behavior, 8 types of stakeholders and 61 value flows. The results indicate that the MOSB-SVN model could identify key stakeholders, key behaviors, and high-scoring value paths to obtain the value acquisition capabilities of all stakeholders and the execution effect of organizational safety behaviors. New ideas and suggestions for improving megaproject safety performance are provided at last.
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