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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 February 2021, Volume 29 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Service Strategy Based on Expected Waiting Time of Customers in Queuing System
    LIU Jian, XU Yong, YIN Rong-rong, LIU Si-feng, LIAO Wen-he
    2021, 29 (2):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.001
    Abstract ( 845 )   PDF (826KB) ( 460 )   Save
    With the improvement of people's living standard, time becomes more and more important. However, queuing may waste a lot of people's time. Existed researches show that customers tend to have an expectation on waiting time when they choose to enter a queuing system for service. If their actual waiting time exceed to their expectation, they will choose to leave or abandon the service. Therefore, the expectation of customers on waiting time will influence customers' behaviors and lead to the flow of customers in queuing system, then affecting the revenue of service provider. In this paper, three strategies are proposed to address this problem based on a stylized M/M/1 system. First and foremost, the related basic theory (i.e. the expected waiting time is not considered) of service pricing is introduced. Then, providing three new strategies by incorporating the expected waiting time of customers: update pricing according to the customers' expectation on waiting time, adjusting the customer expectation by discounting, and improving service rate without changing original price. Later on, the above three strategies are optimized and analyzed based on the optimization of revenue. Further, the corresponding optimal results are compared with existing works, respectively. Finally, the corresponding management insights are proposed based on the analysis of optimal results. The findings of this paper are as follows: When customers hold an expected waiting time in queuing, the service provider are inclined to make more revenue than maintaining the original pricing by adopting above three proposed strategies. If customers are sensitive to cost (i.e., moderate discount can effectively prolong the customers' expectation on waiting time), the discount strategy is better than the update pricing strategy. If perception of customers on time is stronger than the customers' perception on cost (i.e., moderate discount fail to effectively prolong the customers' expectation on waiting time), the update pricing strategy is better than the discount strategy. Obviously, when the cost of improving the service rate is low, service providers are bound to achieve the maximum revenue by improving the system service rate. This research shows important reference value and instructional significance for service providers who value the expected waiting time of customers in service pricing.
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    Research on Service Strategy in A Gray Market
    YANG Feng, XU Feng-mei
    2021, 29 (2):  9-18.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.002
    Abstract ( 551 )   PDF (1955KB) ( 115 )   Save
    Gray market is a distribution channel unauthorized by the manufacturer or brand owner to sell genuine-brand products. With the rapid development of global logistics network and e-commerce, the proportion of gray market trade in the global economy is increasing. In particular, a growing number of countries are increasingly positive about gray markets or gray markets in some sectors. Therefore, how to manage the supply chain effectively under the gray market structure so as to benefit the company has become a problem that must be faced in supply chain management.
    It is considered in this paper that the manufacturer does not provide additional services in the low-price market but provides better product services in the high-price market, and the service is bundled with the product and no longer charges consumers extra fees. At the same time, consumers in the high-priced market who buy products through gray channels are not able to enjoy the services provided by authorized channels. Aiming at the problem that authorized retailers may participate in gray market, a two-stage Stackelberg model composed of a single manufacturer and a single retailer is constructed. Then the optimal decision and the profits of manufacturer and retailer are solved by using backward induction method. Sufficient conditions for the existence of gray market, the impact of the gray market on the profits of both parties and the change of service level are given. By analyzing the profitability of supply chain members in four different situations, we focus on the choice of manufacturers and retailers for their respective strategies and reveal how manufacturer uses service strategies to prevent retailer from participating in the gray market. In addition, we also study the influence of consumers' sensitivity to services on service strategy's response to gray market.
    The results show that: first of all, regardless of whether the manufacturer provides differentiated services in the high-priced market or not, the retailer is involved in gray market to obtain extra profits under the conditions of moderate substitution coefficient and demand elasticity in the low-priced market. And both players achieve a win-win situation under certain conditions. Second, the manufacturer can provide services to narrow the space for retailer to participate in the gray market and reduce the space for manufacturer's profit loss. Thirdly, the more consumers pay attention to service, the better service strategies can cope with the gray market. Finally, service level is correlated with sensitivity coefficient and substitution coefficient. The more consumers value services, the more willing manufacturers are to improve services. With the increase of substitution coefficient, the manufacturer first reduces the service level to encourage the retailer to participate in the gray market, and then increases the service level to prevent the retailer from participating in the gray market, which represents manufacturer's attitude towards the gray market.
    The gray market research is expanded from the perspective of supply chain, and the existing literature pays less attention to the service strategy under the condition of gray market, so this paper enriches this part of research.
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    Independent Pricing or Joint Pricing: Pricing Strategies for New Payment Instruments
    QIU Jia-xian, YONG Chi, TONG Mu
    2021, 29 (2):  19-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.003
    Abstract ( 564 )   PDF (2220KB) ( 102 )   Save
    Payment industry has had a rapid development in recent decades. The appearance of third-party payment means that the innovation of payment instruments has gradually expanded from traditional financial institutions to non-financial institutions, which will lead to different pricing strategies and market development. For both government and payment service provider (called enterprise in the research), there are two pricing strategies-independent pricing strategy and joint pricing strategy. The former strategy means that the enterprise or government makes the prices of new payment instrument to maximize the enterprise profit or the social welfare of new payment instrument, while the latter one refers to that of all payment instruments. Based on the two-sided market theory, new payment instrument pricing models of two pricing strategies are built according to the market characteristics such as market structure, cross network externality in the early development stage of new payment instrument.
    The results indicate that the prices of two-sided users of new payment instrument are influenced by the prices of old payment instrument, enterprise's marginal costs of payment instruments and the cross-network externalities. There are often subsidies between payment instruments when the enterprise or government use independent pricing strategy. The independent pricing strategy of enterprise will lead to a lower price level to attract more users of new payment instrument when the old one is profitable, which explains the different pricing strategies phenomena of bank card and third-party payment in their early development stage in China. The independent pricing strategy of government will lead to the lowest social welfare because of the significant subsidies between payment instruments. And the social welfare even could be reduced when the cost advantage of new payment instrument is not obvious compare to the old payment instrument. The results suggest that enterprise profit maximization pricing for new payment instrument is the second best choice when the social planner could not adopt the joint pricing strategy.
    The research explains the phenomena in the development of payment market, which also provides theoretical supports for the government to make the related policies.
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    Corporate Financial Distress Prediction Based on Multi-Dimensional Efficiency Indicators
    WANG Yu, YANG Shan-shan
    2021, 29 (2):  32-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1366
    Abstract ( 550 )   PDF (2445KB) ( 173 )   Save
    Accurate financial distress prediction models are of critical importance to various stakeholders, i.e. management, investors, employees, shareholders and other interested parties, as the models provide them with timely warnings. The selection of appropriate indicators, which has significant impact on the accuracy of the prediction model, has been widely studied by researchers. Generally, most of the prediction models presented in the literature select indicators directly from various financial ratios based on information that appears in the corporations' financial statements. However, it is widely recognized that a main cause of financial distress is poor management. Therefore, it is believed that the efficiency of business operations should be included in the financial distress prediction model.
    Different from previous researches that construct a prediction model based on the integration of financial ratios and a single-dimensional efficiency indicator, it is argued that multi-dimensional efficiency indicators can comprehensively and effectively reflect the overall situation of corporations in various industries with different scales. Therefore, they should be considered in financial distress prediction in order to achieve better performance. In this study, four input-output systems are put forward for efficiency evaluation with respect to four dimensions, i.e., operational efficiency, financial efficiency, financing efficiency and human capital efficiency. The data envelopment analysis is employed to evaluate the relative efficiencies of corporations in each dimension. And then, the financial distress prediction model, which integrates the multi-dimensional efficiency indicators and financial ratios, is established.
    In order to verify the validity of the proposed model, 148 listed corporations in Shanghai Stock Exchange are selected and Shenzhen Stock Exchange for empirical study. Among them, 74 corporations are financial healthy, while the other 74 corporations fall into financial distress. Three commonly used financial distress prediction techniques, i.e., support vector machine, artificial neural network and decision tree, are embedded in the model. To further investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we adopt three different financial ratios systems are adopted as benchmarks. The results show that the proposed model that combines multi-dimensional efficiency indicators and financial ratios can effectively improve the accuracy of financial distress prediction. The findings of the empirical study also reveal that when different financial ratios are used as the input variables, adding multi-dimensional efficiency indicators could constantly improve the prediction performance, which exhibit the robustness of the proposed approach.
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    Pricing Strategy and Optimal Shareholding of Bertrand Duopoly Firms with Cross-shareholding
    SHI Yuan, WANG Xin-hua, GAO Hong-wei
    2021, 29 (2):  42-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.005
    Abstract ( 436 )   PDF (1664KB) ( 86 )   Save
    With the increasing popularity of cross-shareholding among firms, the problems of profit distribution after cross-shareholding, how cross-shareholding affects the economic behavior and market performance of firms, and what the optimal shareholding should be have always been hot issues that people pay more attention to. Some literatures have studied the problem of profit distribution of cross-shareholding among firms. However, the profit formulations in literature usually emphasize only one firm's returns acquired by holding shares of other firms, while neglecting the rival firms' returns demanded by holding the firm's stock, thus overstating the profit; or only consider the direct shareholding between firms, but ignore the indirect shareholding, resulting in profit omission. Clayton and Jorgensen (2005) analyzed the externality and strategic interactivity when Cournot duopoly market products were substitutes and complements respectively, and put forward the optimal cross-shareholding. They argued that, in an imperfect competitive market, the equilibrium equity of cross-shareholding is positive if the products are complements, the profits of the firms will increase, and the equilibrium equity is negative if the products are substitutes, the profits of the firms will fall. In both cases, consumer surplus will always increase. However, we think their approach and conclusion to be open to question for the substitutes market. First, in general, cross-shareholding equity should be non-negative, the purpose of cross-shareholding is to increase profitability, but their research on substitutes market had an opposite result. Second, their study claimed that cross-shareholding always increase consumer surplus in both substitutes and complements markets, while restrictions and regulations on cross-shareholding always reduce consumer surplus. This conflicts with general perception in substitutes market.
    In this paper, the benefit distribution of cross-shareholding among n firms is studied, a profit formulation of cross-shareholding is presented which revises previous literatures. It takes into account not only the returns obtained by one firm holding shares in other firms, but also the returns claimed by the latter holding shares in the former, as well as the returns among firms through direct and indirect shareholdings, avoiding the exaggeration or omission of the profit or the red tape of the formula form. Secondly, on this basis, the general expressions of the price decision response function and equilibrium price of firms with cross-shareholding in Bertrand oligopoly market in the form of vector and matrix are derived, which avoids the complicated mathematical operation of finding partial derivative of profit formulations and solving n dimensional linear equations. Thirdly, by constructing a two-stage dynamic game, the equilibrium strategy for cross-shareholding of two firms in Bertrand duopoly market is focused on. The equilibrium pricing and optimal shareholding among firms are obtained by backward induction method. Finally, the effect of the equilibrium strategy on firm's economic behavior and market performance is analyzed.
    Our results show that cross-shareholding is anti-competitive for substitutes market. The lower the degree of the product differentiation, the stronger the anti-competition; the more the percentage of the cross-shareholding, the more obvious the anti-competition. Each firm's profit is a monotone increasing function of its equity holding in the other firm, and a monotone decreasing function of the other firm's equity holding in the firm. Both firms have the incentive to increase their own profits by holding as much equity in the other as possible until they reach equilibrium. Compared with non-cross-shareholding, the equilibrium cross-shareholding increases the equilibrium price level, lowers the output level of each firm, and enables each of them to gain higher profit at lower production level, so as to realize a win-win situation between them. However, the product market equilibrium characterized by higher price and less output leads to decrease of the consumer surpluses and economic welfare. This result supports the common view that limiting cross-shareholding increases consumer surplus for substitutes market. That is in stark contrast to the conclusion of Clayton and Jorgensen (2005).
    The research results and conclusions of this paper provide theoretical basis for the economic behavior of cross-shareholding among enterprises and the regulation of cross-shareholding by the government.
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    The Multi-homing Strategy of the Modern Internet Platforms, Traditional Business Pattern and Retailer Performance
    FAN Xiao-ming, YANG Yi, WANG Xiao-yu
    2021, 29 (2):  51-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.006
    Abstract ( 508 )   PDF (1295KB) ( 227 )   Save
    In the Internet era, online third-party platforms have promoted social and economic operations and business model innovation. They have played an important role in expanding business operations and increasing consumer satisfaction. As a result, new opportunities of "Internet Plus Retail" are extremely convenient for retailers to operate business and consistent with the trend of encouraging people to start their own businesses and to make innovations. How the multi-homing strategy of the modern Internet platforms facilitate the realization of Internet platform value is enpirically studied, and the combination of Internet platform multi-homing strategy and traditional business model are furthur explored to help retailers achieving business performance.
    Taking samples of 410 fruit business around universities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the cross-sectional data in July 2017 are collected. First, the regression model verifies the hypothesis that multi-homing strategy influence the retailers' performance positively. In addition, conditional inference tree further confirm that the online platform is the primary factor affecting performance, and the multi-homing strategy facilitates retailers to use heterogeneous resources that they rely on when operating business. Second, previous studies have mainly focused on headquarters performance driven by franchising, and it is demonstrated in this paper franchising in internet era improve the retailer performance significantly. Finally, it is found that multi-homing strategy of internet platform and traditional franchise model are compatible. Franchising pattern as a special feature for retailers, can strength the positive effect of multi-homing strategy on retailer performance.
    In short, "Internet Plus Retail" is a great opportunity for retailers to promote the future development. The realization of Internet platform value requires retailers to make reasonable decisions for internet platform, and one of the most important paths is to implement the multi-homing strategy of internet platform that can help them to make full use of the external resources they rely on. Additionally, the modern online internet platform in conjunction with the traditional franchise model, can play synergy between franchise brand and online word of mouth. Then, retailer by understanding and arranging the above two aspects can promote business performance constantly and achieve long-term business development.
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    Innovation Quantity, Innovation Quality and Foreign Trade Export
    ZHAO Gong-min, YU Li-ping, DAI Hua-yong
    2021, 29 (2):  61-68.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.007
    Abstract ( 510 )   PDF (1568KB) ( 104 )   Save
    China has become a big innovation country, with a large number of innovations, but it is not a strong innovation country, and the level of innovation quality is low. Today, with the increasingly serious trade protectionism, researching the interactive mechanism of innovation quantity, innovation quality and foreign trade export is of great significance. This paper is based on panel data of high technology industry, analysing the interactive relationship of innovation quantity, innovation quality and exports by using panel data model, Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The research results indicate that innovation quantity between foreign trade export appeared positive interaction. The interactive function between innovation quality and foreign trade export is low. Corporate R&D investment can promote the innovation quantity and innovation qualityeffectively. The government R&D investment fail to promote the innovation quantity and innovation quality effectively. There is a certain positive interaction relationship between innovation quantity and innovation quality.
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    A Bi-objective Optimization Method for Tactical Project Planning
    PENG Wu-liang, MA Xiao-jing
    2021, 29 (2):  69-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0258
    Abstract ( 353 )   PDF (1778KB) ( 196 )   Save
    In general project management practice, the expected objectives and resource allocation are delivered from the project plans at the tactical level to the plans at execution level. However, the optimization approaches of tactical project planning are scarce while there are lots of existing approaches focusing on the project scheduling problems at the execution level. In this paper, a new optimization method of project planning at strategic level is studied in view of the actual situation of product development project management. Based on the workload estimation of the work package, a mixed integer programming model for the tactical project planning problem is addressed, with the dual objectives of minimizing the resource level and the make-span of multiple projects under various constraints such as resource, precedence relationship among work packages, etc. An improved bi-objective genetic algorithm is developed in the framework of the fast non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ). There are two significant improvements based on the basic NSGA-Ⅱ in the algorithm. Firstly, aiming at the characteristics of the problem, a decoding algorithm based on resource smoothing is designed. Secondly, referring to the key feature of NSGA-Ⅲ, the calculation method of congestion density is improved and a new calculation method is proposed. The performance of the algorithm is verified by comparision of the improved algorithm with the basic NSGA-Ⅱ for solving a real project case. The effectiveness of the appraoch proposed in this paper is shown and illustrated based on the analysis of the results calculated by the presented algorithm,since it can provide the project decision maker with more comprehensive support.The research will extend the research of project planning and scheduling to the macro level of project management.
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    A Game Analysis on RFID Technology and Parallel Importation Based on Gray Market Traceability
    DING Long, HU Bin, CHANG Shan, SHI Chun-lai
    2021, 29 (2):  78-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0584
    Abstract ( 413 )   PDF (1647KB) ( 108 )   Save
    The Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) has got a great deal of development and application, however it still has not been implemented in gray market research. It is generally known that gray market has its concealment and complexity which makes it difficult to capture the related information, while RFID provides approach and technical method in addressing this problem. A supply chain with a retailer and a manufacturer who sells a single product in two separate markets is investigated: high-end market and low-end market. The manufacturer sells products directly to the consumer in high-end market, whereas the products are sold to the consumer in low-end market through the retailer. The gray market will be formed once the retailer diverts the products into the high-end market. RFID technology is first introduced into gray market which enables the manufacturer to capture the gray market information. Then a pure strategy game model is established based on manufacturer RFID strategies (adopting or not adopting) and retailer diverting strategies (fleeing or not fleeing), and four different strategy combinations of (N, N), (N, F), (A, N), (A, F) are analyzed, where (N, F) means manufacturer does not adopt RFID technology and retailer flees product. Finally the impact of RFID technology on the gray market and is analyzed the solution of Nash equilibrium is acquired. The results show that fleeing goods is retailer's dominant strategy, and the manufacturer's strategy of RFID technology depends on the penalty cost of fleeing goods and the cost of RFID technology. It is also found that both RFID technology and gray market will lower the total social welfare level.
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    Research on Strategic Consumer Innovation Perception and Product Pricing and Rollover Strategy
    HUANG Li-qing, ZHANG Gong-liang
    2021, 29 (2):  89-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0797
    Abstract ( 409 )   PDF (1977KB) ( 103 )   Save
    With the rapid development of scientific technology, manufacturers are motivated to launch innovative products frequently to seize market share. Thus, product pricing and rollover strategies have become an important factor in the success of production. In this paper, a duopoly firms three stages model of the optimal pricing and product rollover strategy is constructed, combined with the utility function and the game analysis method under the perspective of technical innovation in homogeneous and heterogeneous product market.The display solutions on the timing of new product coming into market and old product exiting market are found out. Also, the effect of product technology innovation level, consumer innovation knowledge on optimal pricing and product rollover strategy through simulation is investigated. The research indicates that levels of product technology innovation and consumer innovation knowledge have important influence on the pricing and product rollover strategy of the manufacturers. In the market of homogeneous products, the higher the potential demand of the market is, the higher the initial price of the product will be. When the manufacturers face the competition of internal and external products and the market potential demand is small, the price of two generation products is barely different. When the market potential demand is large, the new product pricing is determined by the level of technological innovation. When the technological innovation level of the manufacturer is at disadvantage, the greater the gap between the two manufacturers'technological innovation level is, the earlier the inferior manufacturers should exit the market.
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    Reliability Analysis of Warm Standby System with Phased Mission Requirements
    QIU Hui, YAN Xiang-bin, ZHAI Qing-qing, PENG Rui
    2021, 29 (2):  99-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.011
    Abstract ( 379 )   PDF (1932KB) ( 98 )   Save
    In phased mission system, the environment and system requirements may change at different stages, and the working elements may fail at any stage, which brings challenges to the reliability analysis and modeling of the system. In order to increase the reliability of the system, a common design method is to configure standby components. Standby methods include hot standby, cold standby and warm standby. In hot standby mode, two or more systems deployed on different devices run simultaneously, one of them is the main working process, the other is the active standby process. When the working process fails, the standby process can take over the tasks of the working process immediately without requiring a start-up time. In order to achieve rapid takeover, hot standby mode needs to copy the tasks in the working process to thestandby process in real time. Using this kind of hot standby technology to ensure the reliability of the system also brings problems such as excessive energy consumption. The main disadvantage of cold standby is that it takes a long time to start the standby process to take over the task. Warm standby is the intermediate state between cold standby and hot standby. In standby state, energy consumption is lower than hot standby, and switching speed is higher than cold standby. From the point of view of reliability model, warm standby can be regarded as the promotion of hot standby and cold standby. The reliability modeling method of warm standby system can also be used in cold standby or hot standby system.
    Multi-valued decision graph is a directed acyclic graph, which can reflect the relationship between component state and system state. Most of the existing studies only consider the multi-state of the system and use multi-value decision diagram to analyze the reliability of the system. Few literatures have studied the application of multivalued decision maps in phased mission system reliability analysis.
    On the basis of the existing research, the problem of system reliability modeling is presented for phased mission systemwith warm standby components. In the reliability analysis of phased mission system with warm standby components, the multi-valued decision graph method is used to construct the reliability calculation formulas of components in different state distributions, and the model is applied through two examples. Finally, the results of the solution are compared with the simulation values, and the validity and accuracy of the model are verified by the comparison results. The reliability model constructed has certain guiding significance in improving the reliability of aviation systems, military equipment systems and other engineering systems with phased mission requirements.
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    Study on the Optimal Ordering Policy of Perishable Products with Delayed Payment
    XU Xian-hao, WANG Qian, ZENG Kuan, PENG Hong-xia
    2021, 29 (2):  108-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.012
    Abstract ( 346 )   PDF (1281KB) ( 69 )   Save
    The optimal ordering policy of perishable products in a two-level supply chain with a single-supplier and capital-constrained multi-retailers is investigated, in which the supplier allows the delayed payment. It is considered there is no shortage allowed, and the price changes with the customer's willingness to buy the perishable product. Through the numerical test using genetic algorithm (GA), the optimal ordering policy is found out. The results show that the delayed payment helps to improve the whole supply chain efficiency, which would increase the profits for each supply chain member while lowering the risk, and the supplier benefits more from the delayed payment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is conducted to discuss the effect of different parameters on the total profits, which provides management insight forordering decisions.
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    Dynamic Pricing and Joint Emission Reduction Strategies in a Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Goodwill
    YE Xin, ZHOU Yan-ju
    2021, 29 (2):  117-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.013
    Abstract ( 418 )   PDF (2146KB) ( 333 )   Save
    The emission of greenhouse gas is increasingly harmful to the environment. How to develop the economy while controlling greenhouse gas emissions has become an important issue in countries all over the world. Under immense pressure from climate change, governments and environmental agencies have successively issued a series of laws and regulations. In order to meet the requirements of government policies and regulations, manufacturing enterprises have begun to implement low-carbon management strategies and improve emission reduction technologies. At the same time, many retailers adopt advertising strategies to enhance consumers' low-carbon awareness and encourage their purchase of low-carbon products. Further, the extensive application of internet technology has greatly changed traditional consumption patterns. Many manufacturers have begun selling products directly to consumers through online channels. In this way, the online channel can help the manufacturer to enlarge market needs. However, for the retailer, the manufacturer is not only the supplier but also the competitor, thus, the channel conflict remains. This means studying supply chain members' optimal strategies is much more complicated under the dual-channel structure. In addition, the operational production of manufacturers is usually multi-period rather than single period, thus the long-term decisions of supply chain members should be closely examined. On account of the above issues, by putting the characteristics of low-carbon products into the dual-channel supply chain, and using the knowledge in the fields of optimal control theory, the pricing and joint emission reduction strategies are explored in a dual-channel supply chain from the long-term and dynamic perspectives, and the results can provide a theoretical basis for supply chain members to make optimal decisions and a policy basis for the government to formulate regulations. In this paper, a differential game is present that involves one manufacturer and one retailer in a dual-channel supply chain, where emission reduction and goodwill are state variables. Supply chain members' optimal strategies are discussed under different channel structures and analyzes how the cooperative advertising and emission reduction cost sharing contract affect supply chain's coordination is analyzed. The results suggest that: (1) The emission reduction trajectory is monotonic while the goodwill trajectory may change direction. The degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel and the manufacturers' competition intensity exert a significant influence on optimal strategies, specifically, when the degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel is lower and the manufacturers' competition intensity is higher than a threshold, the retail price in the centralized supply chain will be higher than the decentralized supply chain, which is totally different from the result of "double marginalization" in a single channel. (2) The retailer's advertising effort is always lower in a dual-channel supply chain than in a single channel supply chain, therefore, the manufacturer can share a part of the advertising cost with the retailer to stimulate the retailer's advertising investment and eliminate channel conflicts. In addition, when the degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel is lower or the manufacturers' competition intensity is higher than a threshold, the manufacturer's emission reduction effort in a dual-channel supply chain will be higher than in a single channel supply chain, so the government should provide manufacturers with emission reduction subsidies to encourage them to adopt a dual-channel structure to promote sustainable production. (3) Compared with single channel, retailer's profit is lower, while manufacturer's profit is higher in a dual-channel structure until the degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel is higher or the manufacturers' competition intensity is lower than a threshold, so the manufacturer will not open online channel. Since the dual-channel structure always hurts retailer's benefit, so when the degree of customer loyalty to the retail channel and the manufacturers' competition intensity is high, the retailer can rebate the manufacturer, which enables the manufacturer to make large profits in the retail channel, and would not open an online channel. (4) The cooperative advertising and emission reduction cost sharing contract can achieve Pareto improvement for the manufacturer, the retailer and the whole supply chain system, and the higher consumer's low-carbon and brand preference, the more likely manufacturer and retailer would cooperate with each other.
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    Evolutionary Game Decision between Manufacturer and Remanufacturer in the Authorization Mode
    ZHAO Xiao-min, MENG Xiao-xiao
    2021, 29 (2):  129-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.014
    Abstract ( 419 )   PDF (927KB) ( 106 )   Save
    With the rapid development of remanufacturing industry, the conflicts of interest and intellectual property rights between manufacturers and remanufacturers become more and more prominent. To some extent, patent authorization can effectively reduce property rights disputes and is helpful in solving the interest conflicts issues. In order to explore the parties' evolutionary behaviors and dynamic equilibriums in the patent authorization mode, evolutionary game theory is used to study the decisions between original product manufacturers and third-party remanufacturers, and especially the influence of remanufacturing license fee on system's evolution equilibrium strategies is analyzed. The results show that the system will evolve to different stable equilibrium strategy when the remanufacturing license fee meets different boundary conditions. However, in the pure authorization mode only using remanufacturing license fee, the system can not evolve to the best equilibrium result (green innovation, remanufacturing). Therefore, the government's external intervention is further introduced to the model and the guidence effect of subsidy mechanism is investigated. The results prove that there is a feasible government subsidy mechanism, which can promote the system to achieve the best stable equilibrium. In that case, manufacturers are willing to make efforts in green innovation, thus reducing the remanufacturing costs, and remanufacturers are more willing to carry out remanufacturing business. The joint efforts of both sides will improve the efficiency and value of remanufacturing.
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    Joint Decisions on Fresh Investment and Shipment Consolidation under Product Freshness Requirements
    CHEN Jing
    2021, 29 (2):  137-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.015
    Abstract ( 301 )   PDF (4012KB) ( 130 )   Save
    With the increase of sales channels and the change of people's buying habits, fresh product sales orders tend to be small batches and high frequency. This makes joint optimization of fresh product supply chain distribution, inventory and preservation decisions become a new problem. Therefore, considering a logistic company who provides shipment service for fresh products, a stochastic model is formulated based on Stochastic Renew Reward Theory to jointly optimize the fresh investment decision and the shipment consolidation decision in this paper. And the quality corrosion characteristic of fresh products and the fresh level requirement of downstream retailers are integrated into this model. Through analyzing this model, some inherent laws is shown that how the fresh investment decision and the shipment consolidation decision impact shipment cost, penalty cost incurred by shipment consolidation and fresh-keeping cost, respectively. Moreover, the expression of the optimal fresh investment quantity per product per time is pointed out based on the given shipment consolidation quantity. Similarly, given the fresh investment policy, the expression of the optimal shipment consolidation quantity is derived. Furthermore, the equation is also shown that the optimal fresh investment decision and the shipment consolidation decision should be satisfied. Based on these analyzing conclusions, an efficient algorithm for solving the model is proposed. Finally, through conducting a lot of experiments, it is obtained that how the fresh investment decision, shipment consolidation policy and their jointly optimization save the operation cost and how the product parameters, the cost parameter sand the demand parameters effect the fresh investment decision, the shipment consolidation decision and the long-run expected average cost.All conclusions in this paper have reference significance for the enterprises in the cold chain industry to make distribution and preservation investment decisions.
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    Research on Coordination of Supply Chain with Two Products Based on Mix Carbon Policy
    DIAO Xin-wei, ZENG Zhen-xiang, SUN Cheng
    2021, 29 (2):  149-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.016
    Abstract ( 399 )   PDF (1652KB) ( 144 )   Save
    The emergence of the mixed carbon policy of both carbon tax and cap-and-tradehas made supply chain enterprises pay more attention to investment in emission reduction technologies and implement low-carbon production. Additionally,in the face of increasingly diversified and personalized market demand, increasing numbers of enterprises have acquired competitive advantages by adopting product diversification strategies. These diverse products are often not independent, but have a certain substitution or complementary relationship with other products. This causes the sales volume of a product to be affected not only by its own price and level of carbon emission reduction, but also by the price of its substitutes or complements. Based on the above background, this paper studies a make-to-order supply chain consisting of a single manufacture and a single retailer. In this supply chain, there are two different products with a certain substitution or complementary relationship. First, the optimal operational decisions of themanufacturer andthe retailer under decentralized and centralized decision-making are calculated and the optimal profits of the supply chain under different scenarios are compared. It can be concluded that the optimal profit of the supply chain in the centralized decision-making scenario is significantly higher than that in the decentralized decision-making scenario. Then, a revenue-sharing contract is improved. This paper comes up with new design with constructing equivalent equations. It is found that the profits of the manufacturer and the retailer can achieve Pareto improvement, and the profit of the supply chain can reach Pareto optimality. Under the revenue-sharing contract, the specific amount of the benefit distribution depends on the bargaining power of both parties and their status in the supply chain. However, as long as profit sharing fluctuates within the specified range, the supply chain can achieve coordination. Finally, numerical examples are provided to verify the above conclusions.
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    Research on the Strategy of Cooperative Emission Reduction in Supply Chain Involving ESCO under Carbon Trading Policy
    LIAO Nuo, LU Chen, HE Yong
    2021, 29 (2):  160-167.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.017
    Abstract ( 374 )   PDF (1398KB) ( 310 )   Save
    As an effective cooperative mode of enhancing carbon emission reduction, the participation of energy-saving service companies (ESCO) in supply chain emission reduction has been concerned in recent years. However, the existing literatures have not analyzed the conditions for supply chain to cooperate with ESCO in emission reduction, andthe impact onemission reduction rate and profits in the supply chain involving ESCO. The strategy of cooperative emission reduction in the supply chain ESCO under the carbon trading policy is investingated on. Three game models are established in the case of decentralized decision-making, centralized decision making among upstream and downstream enterprises and involving ESCO cooperation with the supply chain. Through the comparative analysis of the profit and emission reduction effect, the conditions and the profit sharing ratio of ESCO to participate in supply chain emission reduction are obtained. The results indicate that, when the ratio of the investment coefficient of emission reduction in supply chain to that of ESCO reached to a certain threshold value, the optimal decision-making of the supply chain is to cooperate with ESCO. According to the total profit and emission reduction rate of supply chain, the three cases are sorted as that, the first is cooperating with the ESCO, and the next is centralized decision making, the last is decentralized decision-making. When cooperating with ESCO, the emission reduction rate of supply chain has a reverse relation with the profit sharing ratio.Moreover, numerical simulations are conducted to further verify the above results. The theoretical support could be provided for the necessity and effectiveness of energy-saving service companies participating in supply chain emission reduction in practice.
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    Aggregation Method of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers with Minimized Maximal Compromise under Consensus Condition
    LI Lei, ZHANG Shu-yang
    2021, 29 (2):  168-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0976
    Abstract ( 372 )   PDF (2079KB) ( 88 )   Save
    The intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) theory is an important tool for describing a wide range of fuzzy things and is widely used in group decision making theory. In this study, consensus decision making under intuitionistic fuzzy set is imvestigated, trying to minimize the maximum gap between individual preference and group preference. This investigation has practical meaning: A smaller gap means individuals are more satisfied with final decision, and the work efficiency will be higher when implement the decision. In this article, first, we define the concept of compromise degree and put forward three decision scenarios, which includes decision making without consensus constraints, with consensus constraints, and with weight. Second, a novel algorithm is developed to minimize the maximal compromise degree when aggregate individual decision information. At last, a numerical example is given to prove the validation of our algorithm and group decision method. The example shows, compared with Guiwu Wei's I-IFOWG operator, the compromise degree by our method is much lower. The study is expected to support intuitionistic fuzzy theory and consensus decision making theory.
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    Research on an Improved Expert Cluster Weighting Method Based on Fuzzy Kernel Clustering
    WANG Ze-zhou, CHEN Yun-xiang, XIANG Hua-chun
    2021, 29 (2):  177-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.019
    Abstract ( 322 )   PDF (679KB) ( 128 )   Save
    In order to settle the matter that the outliers have an adverse impact on clustering results, which is caused by the restriction of traditional normalization conditions, an improved expert cluster weighting method based on fuzzy kernel clustering is proposed. By loosening the normalization constraints, the effects of outliers on the clustering results could be overcome. At the same time, considering the limitation of the traditional clustering standard based on the linear coupling of information entropy and consistency coefficient, a cluster weighting method based on deviation entropy is proposed. The expert weights' is determined based on the contribution of the expert clustering, which overcomes the deficiency of previous method. The example shows that the method is feasible and effective.
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    Study on the Supply Side Evolutionary Game of Green Building under the Mechanism of Government Dynamic Reward and Punishment
    LIANG Xi, FU Yang
    2021, 29 (2):  184-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0917
    Abstract ( 417 )   PDF (3029KB) ( 146 )   Save
    In order to promote the development of green building in China,the consumer's utility function, the developer's profit function and the evolutionary game model between government and developer are constructed, analyzing the influence of consumer's green preference, green degree and development cost of the building on the price, demand and profit of green buildings and ordinary buildings, meanwhile, finding out the evolutionary stable strategies of the game system under the four dynamic reward and punishment policies of the government. Finally, a case study of China's green building enterprise is examined with the simulation. The results show that: the increase of consumer's green preference payment coefficient and green degree of the building is conducive to the increase of green building price, demand and profit, but the high cost reduces the demand and profit of green building; there is no evolutionary stable strategy under static subsidy and static taxation,while the system exists evolutionary stable strategies under dynamic subsidy and static taxation,dynamic taxation and static subsidy or dynamic subsidy and dynamic taxation; dynamic subsidy and static taxation is better than other policies in promoting green building development; the probability of developers to develop green building is negatively correlated with the upper bound of subsidy, positively correlated with the ceiling of taxation.
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    Clustering Structure Cooperative Working Mechanism Design of Low Orbit Satellite Communication Network Based on Spherical Coordinate System
    FANG Zhi-geng, GENG Sun-yue, LIU Si-feng, GAO Su, XIE Shi-kun
    2021, 29 (2):  195-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2008
    Abstract ( 323 )   PDF (3138KB) ( 253 )   Save
    The structure of LEO (low-orbit) satellite communication network systems and the inter-satellite link relationship are very complicated. How to achieve highly reliable and efficient work of the system is a very complicated and difficult task. Traditional routing algorithms mostly choose distributed routing, ignoring the cluster management within the satellite, to a certain extent, greatly increasing the time complexity and space complexity of the algorithm. In view of this problem, this article starts from the characteristics of the LEO satellite communication network, and uses space communication technology, cluster planning technology and queuing graphic evaluation review technique (Q-GERT) to first construct the geocentric sky of the LEO satellite communication network. A multi-layer communication network with a clustered architecture is built; Secondly, based on the optimization of network comprehensive efficiency, routing models and algorithms that can achieve highly distributed cooperative communication business management are designed; Finally, the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed working mechanism was demonstrated by case study.
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    Customer Satisfaction Evaluation Method for Fresh E-commerce Based on Online Reviewsand Stochastic Dominance Rules
    FENG Kun, YANG Qiang, CHANG Xin-yi, LI Yan-lai
    2021, 29 (2):  205-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2108
    Abstract ( 595 )   PDF (2198KB) ( 241 )   Save
    Fresh e-commerce is widely regarded as the next blue ocean in the field of e-commerce, which has attracted various types of capital and platforms to join the competition. However, fresh e-commerce is now still in the stage of development and exploration. How to grasp customer requirements accurately and timely and improve customer satisfaction significantly is an important issue that currently facing.In this paper, a customer satisfaction evaluation method for fresh e-commerce that based on online reviews and stochastic dominance rules is proposed. Firstly, based on the large amount of online reviews - existing in fresh e-commerce and LDA model, the topic of online review is extracted and regarded as the influencing factor of customer satisfaction for fresh e-commerce. Secondly, a sentiment dictionary is constructed to calculate the score of customers' sentiment inclination, which is subsequently regarded as the basis for judging the customer satisfaction. Finally, a random dominance matrix of influencing factors in different commodity categories is constructed using the stochastic dominance rules, and the ranking of influencing factors in different commodity categories is given by using the PROMETHEE-Ⅱ method. An empirical case study on customer satisfaction evaluation is conducted by crawling online reviews of different kinds of fresh goods on Tmall website. It also verified the applicability and validity of the proposed method. The empirical results show that the importance ranking of influencing factors on customer satisfaction in different fresh commodity categories is different. It is worth noting that the proposed method also provides reference and support for customer satisfaction evaluation on other products or services.
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    Impact on Customers' Secondary Satisfaction by Apology with Assurance Management Response Strategy: Under the Moderating Eeffect of Consumers' Diverse Emotions
    GUO Xiao-shu, ZHANG Yan, XU Jian
    2021, 29 (2):  217-227.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.02.023
    Abstract ( 380 )   PDF (1327KB) ( 124 )   Save
    Under the mode of O2O, which online management response strategies can improve customer satisfaction has been concerned by many scholars and businessmen. However, most studies only focus on the negative emotions of customers, the moderator effect of customer's diverse emotions on online management response strategies has been ignored. In fact, when customers receive online management responses, they have ambivalent emotions, which are manifested in a variety of emotions. In this paper, the relationship between apology commitment management response strategies and customer satisfaction under different emotional regulation are studied. Through reviewing the related researches on online management response strategy, customer satisfaction and customer diversified emotions, the types of online reviews representing customer diversified emotions are put forward, including: positive reviews, partial positive reviews, negative reviews, partial negative reviews, and it is studied that different types of reviews (customer diverse emotions) have different effects on customer satisfaction; the apology with assurance management response strategy has a positive influence on customer's secondary satisfaction; different types of online reviews(customer diverse emotions) have a moderator effect on the positive impact of apology with assurance response strategy. 99027 records of twice check-in customers from a travel website in China are obtained, customer comments are categorized into four types: positive comments, partial positive comments, partial negative comments and negative comments by machine learning, and management response strategies are categorized into two types: the apology with assurance management response strategy and other response strategy. Through an empirical analysis by means of multiple linear regression model, the result shows that:(1)partial positive comments, partial negative comments and negative comments have a negative effect on customer satisfaction;(2)the apology with assurance management response strategy has a positive effect on customer's secondary satisfaction;(3)for different types of customer emotions, replying the same apology with assurance management response strategy, the effect is also different: the impact of partial negative comments and negative comments can strengthen the impact on secondary satisfaction of customers by apology with assurance management response strategy. The results of the research enriched the theory and method of online management response strategy, provide some kinds of reference to the provider's online management response, and strengthen customer relationship management through the third-party platform.
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    Research on Mutual Trust between Buyers and Sellers in Online Live Shopping Mode
    CHEN Ying-xin, GAO Xu-tong, WEN Yan-yan
    2021, 29 (2):  228-236.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0576
    Abstract ( 699 )   PDF (1209KB) ( 294 )   Save
    In order to study the intrinsic influence mechanism of online interaction on customer trust in online live shopping, based on the interactive perspective, the social presence is introduced as a mediator variable, and a model between interaction and trust is constructed.It is found that the customer's sense of space presence and social presence in online shopping is realized based on the interaction mechanism, which is a three-party body composed of customers, websites and sellers. Among them, the sense of space presence and social presence have a certain influence on the construction mechanism of customers and online shopping trust, and depending on the type of trust, it can be divided into three categories: competence trust, honest trust and good faith trust. Space presence creates the first type of trust, and social presence creates two senses of trust. In order to improve the level of mutual trust between buyers and sellers in the online live shopping model, the research also gives corresponding suggestions based on the research results of the project.
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    Study on Governance of Information Distortion Based on Competitive Information Dissemination Model
    ZHANG Bin, HUANG Ying-ying, SHI Pei-lin
    2021, 29 (2):  237-248.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1138
    Abstract ( 492 )   PDF (5156KB) ( 147 )   Save
    Rumor informationon the internet is typically bad information generated by information distortion. As with the expansion of social network users, the governance of bad information on the internet has become an important issue that needs to be addressed urgently.
    Therefore, taking the Weibo rumor event as a specific research object, the competitive dissemination process of rumor information and repelling information is focused on. Six factors related to the competitive dissemination process are explored: the dissemination rate of rumor information β1,the dissemination rate of repelling information β2,one-way replacement rate θ,the effective contact weight of rumor information dissemination process wA, the effective contact weight of repelling informationdissemination process wB, the effective contact weight of one-way replacement processes wC.Studies on targeted regulation of such factors are carried out and governance policies on internet bad information are designed.
    Based on literature and empirical research, the SIR infectious disease model is used and improved in this paper. The six factors described above are included in the model to incorporate the effects of user literacy and network contact environment. Combined with the mean field theory, the competitive dissemination model of rumor events is established from the perspective of system dynamics by mathematical modeling method.The model simulation method can visualize abstract mathematical equations. Anylogic simulation modeling tool is therefore used to carry out simulation experiments in this paper. Six situations of competitive dissemination of rumor information and repelling information are simulated. The influences of different parameters on the competitive dissemination process are fully revealed through simulation experiments and parameter sensitivity analysis.
    After analysis,the one-way replacement relationship between user states is found and is added in the simulation experiments. The experiments show that β2 and wB are the key control factors. Flexible regulation of those indicators could help improve the effectiveness of bad information governance. Furthermore, policy suggestions to improve the network literacy of Internet users and to regulate the contact environment of network node through technical intervention are put forward.This paper uses Python to collect data of rumor cases publicly disclosed on Weibo in 2019-2020. After cleaning, data are selected for empirical analysis.
    The competitive dissemination model proposed in this paper combines the key elements of previous researches in the field of bad information dissemination. The model is flexible and can meet the demand of factor-targeted analysis, providing a new idea for modeling and optimization of bad information communication. This model has strong practicability, it can fully simulate different competitive dissemination scenarios based on reality, and can provide better solutions for bad information governance.
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