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20 January 2021, Volume 29 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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The Effectiveness of Dynamic Mean-variance Portfolio: An Aspect of Time-varying Risk Tolerance HE Chao-lin, TU Bei, WANG Peng 2021, 29 (1):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.001 Abstract ( 612 )   PDF (3937KB) ( 213 )   Save Although the mean variance model has been widely used and proved to be effective in the process of static portfolio optimization, the effectiveness of the mean variance model in the process of dynamic portfolio optimization in the dynamic scenario has aroused people's doubts: One is that the setting of constant risk aversion coefficient does not conform to the fact, and the other is that the investor preferences do not fit the mainstream utility function family under the dynamic situation. In view of this, the effectiveness of dynamic mean-variance portfolio is studied by assuming that the investor's risk tolerance is a function of portfolio's investment horizon and investor's expected return rate.Based on mean-variance framework, the model of dynamic portfolio under time-varying risk tolerance is constructed; it uses the Ito theorem and Lagrange multiplier method to obtain the closed-form solution of optimal portfolio; comparing with the dynamic portfolio under quadratic utility preference, it tests the strategy and performance of dynamic mean-variance portfolio from the aspects of portfolio strategy, Sharpe ratio, certainty equivalent rate of return, and efficient frontier, and does an empirical study.The results show, the dynamic mean-variance portfolio not only has the same performance, but also embodies its flexibility and risk hedging value; although the dynamic mean-variance portfolio shows high leverage, the certainty equivalent rate of return is higher, and presents the trend of inverted U shape with the increasing of investment horizon; the dynamic mean-variance portfolio has a significant effect of investment horizon, which is stronger than that of expected return rate. It is pointed out that the strategy of dynamic mean-variance portfolio management and optimization under time-varying risk tolerance is effective, but is not suit for short investment horizon (less than 12 months) and(or) low expected yield. The study not only extends the application of mean-variance model under the dynamic situation, but also reflects the adjustment of investment behavior due to the changing of investor's psychology and (or) his wealth. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Formation of Systemic Risk and the Coordination of “Double Pillar” Policy under Credit Distortion——Based on the Perspective of Heterogeneous Enterprises LI Tian-yu, MENG Xian-chun, FENG Ye 2021, 29 (1):  12-23.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0922 Abstract ( 412 )   PDF (2955KB) ( 135 )   Save There are many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that have lower average productivity and also have easier access to credit than private enterprises (POEs). The heterogeneity of credit constraints between SOEs and POEs exacerbates credit misallocation across sectors, which is a key feature of the existing distortions facing China's financial system. After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world adopted macro-prudential policies as a supplement to monetary policy to achieve financial stability. In 2017, China formally established a double pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. What is the relation between monetary policy and macroprudential policy? How to coordinate between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy in this second-best environment with heterogeneous firms? To answer these questions, financial frictions and enterprise heterogeneity are incorporated into a two-sector DSGE model to study the coordination effect of double pillar policy. Concretely, in our model, intermediate goods are produced by firms in two sector: one sector with SOEs and the other with POEs. Consistent with the institutional features of the Chinese economy, SOEs differ from POEs in their credit constraint and productivity. Using both numerical simulations and mathematical derivations, the formation of systemic risk and the coordination of double pillar policy in an environment with heterogeneous firms are studied. The results show that the SOEs sector crowds out the demand for credit in the POEs sector, leading to inefficient allocation of credit resources, rising macro leverage of the economy, and increased systemic risks. In addition, in an environment with heterogeneous enterprises, macro-prudential policy can reduce macroeconomic leverage and prevent systemic risks by slowing down the credit market's pro-cyclical behavior and inhibiting the excessive expansion of credit scale, significantly improving social welfare losses. Moreover, the coordination of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy only slows down the amplification effect of the mortgage constraint mechanism on the business cycle, and failure to solve the distorting effect of heterogeneous enterprises on the economic structure. This paper contributes to the literature in the following ways. First, a two-sector with different degrees of financial frictions DSGE model is built to analyze the influencing mechanism of financial frictions on systemic risks. Second, the coordination effect of double pillar policy on controlling the systematic risk caused by heterogeneous enterprises are investigated. Finally, the results provide new empirical evidence for the effects of double pillar policy on the structure of the economy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Class of Sequential Decision Making Methods: Lens and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Information Perspective GU Jing, ZENG Lu-xuan, LI Wen-xin, XU Ze-shui 2021, 29 (1):  24-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.003 Abstract ( 426 )   PDF (2247KB) ( 202 )   Save Different from most sequential decisionmaking studies that focus on classical secretary problems, a decisionmaking method is constructed in this paper for a class of sequential decisionmaking problems, in which the object is unchanged but its state keeps updating in every stage. The method we propose is based on lens model and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, which in details are: 1) using lens model for reference, the state in the next stage is predicted through the proximal information in current stage; 2) considering the uncertainty of the decisionmaking environment, intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to describe the information cues obtained by the decision-maker; 3) to better simulate the real decision-maker, the method is proposed in the framework of prospect theory. Based on above idea, two key parameters are invented for the method, named predicted "prospect" value and prediction performance, and specific decisionmaking steps are proposed. At last, a case in venture capital field is applied to illustrate the performance of the proposed method, where the data comes from analog simulation. Furthermore, comparative analysis of different occasion decision results and the robustness test are taken to verify the applicability and effectiveness of our method. Compared with the existing studies, the method we propose is more universal and can be applied to many scenes such as venture capital decisionmaking, emergency management and so on. Also, more research attention may be gathered in this field due to our study. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Adverse Selection of Investors in PPP Projects Based on Prospect Theory GAO Ruo-lan, ZHOU Yi-ning, LIU Ji-cai 2021, 29 (1):  36-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.004 Abstract ( 472 )   PDF (1752KB) ( 572 )   Save Nowadays, PPP (public-private partnership) scheme has been widely applied in the worldwide. However, this scheme is much-maligned due to cost overruns and poor operational performance etc. Adverse selection of private investors is one of the important reasons for the poor performance. Usually, adverse selection of investors mainly occurs in the procurement stage of PPP projects. It refers that investors without enough strength obtain franchise, seriously constraining the sustainable development of PPP schemes. In order to curb such behavior, the screening mechanism during the procurement phase of PPP projects is essential. Considering the bounded rationality of the governments and investors, a signal game model is constructed, quotation contents covering the construction cost, operation cost and discount rate of by investors and the reasonable profit rate by the governments. The results show that the camouflage cost of investors is the determinant for the PPP market to achieve the separating equilibrium. To save the inspection cost of the governments and achieve the separating equilibrium easily, sampling inspection mechanism is proposed to check on investors with low bids, followed by the optimal sampling ratio, in which scenario adverse selection of investors can be eradicated. To enhance a better understanding, a numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the models presented earlier. The findings of numerical simulation suggest that the optimal sampling ratio improves with the increased reasonable profit rate for high-capability investors, while decreases with an increasing camouflage cost, the punishment by the governments and the discount rate quotation by investors with high ability. Compared with the revenues, investors are sensitive to losses, but the degree of sensitivity decreases with the increased revenues and losses, which conforms to the prospect theory. The psychological factors of decision makers in the game process is analyzed, indicating that the introduction of the prospect theory makes the results more reasonable and has a good engineering application value. Eventually, to reduce adverse selection of investors in PPP projects, some recommendations are proposed, providing a reference for the governments and investors and helping improve the governance system of schemes. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Consumer's Brand Loyalty on Brand Remanufacturing Market Strategy GAO Peng, DU Jian-guo, NIE Jia-jia, ZHU Bin-xin 2021, 29 (1):  47-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.005 Abstract ( 517 )   PDF (1617KB) ( 413 )   Save The green effects and economic benefits of remanufacturing lead the entry of many independent remanufacturers (i.e. IRs), which brings a greater competitive threat to brand original equipment manufacturers (i.e. BOEMs). Due to the pressure of market competition and brand protection, BOEMs are facing a dilemma on whether to committed to remanufacturing by themselves, especially when more and more consumers have brand loyalty. Brand loyalty originates from consumers' trust and special emotion to a product brand and leads to the obvious tendency and exclusiveness in product selection. In this paper, a competitive remanufacturing supply chain system consisting of a BOEM (providing new products) and an IR (providing general remanufactured products) are considered, and a detailed study is made on whether the BOEM carries out remanufacturing and the supply chain performance caused by it when consumers have brand loyalty. Firstly, the market share of brand loyalty consumers is used to represent brand loyalty and the demand functions of three products under brand loyalty are derived based on utility analysis. Then, four market decision-making models are constructed, i.e. IR does not enter and BOEM no longer manufactures (n), IR does not enter and BOEM remanufactures (nR), IR enters and BOEM no longer manufactures (nr), IR enters and BOEM remanufactures (nrR), and the equilibrium solutions of various models are obtained by game theory. Next, the sensitivity analysis method is used to study the influence of consumer brand loyalty on the equilibrium price, the market demand and the profit of IR and BOEM. Besides, it reveals how the model preferences of IR and BOEMs change with brand loyalty by comparing the profits of different models. Finally, the consumer surplus and social welfare are discussed by numerical simulation. The results show that if the proportion of IR patent fees is low, the threshold of BOEM's remanufacturing will be lowered by the loyalty of consumers' brands, and vice versa. Besides, when the BOEM carries out remanufacturing, the consumers' brand loyalty of consumers will increase the prices of new products, general remanufactured products and brand remanufactured products simultaneously under the effect of butterfly effect. it will certainly increase the profits of brand manufacturers, but not necessarily reduce IR profits. The IR always prefers Nr mode when the brand loyalty is lower than a threshold; otherwise, IR will even prefer nrR in view of spillover profits. If the manufacturing cost of new products is high, the mode preference of the BOEM is always nR$\succ$nrR$\succ$n$\succ$nr while it may most prefer nrR mode or n mode on the contrary. Due to the influence of brand loyalty on product price, the brand consumer surplus under Nr and NrR models is not necessarily positively related to it and if the brand loyalty is not very high, consumers' model preference is always nrR$\succ$nr$\succ$nR$\succ$n. To our disappointment, we find that brand loyalty is not conducive to improving the overall social welfare in competitive markets (nr or nrR mode). The conclusion is helpful to expand the application of consumer brand theory and enrich the theory of remanufacturing competition. Furthermore, it provides a reference for local governments to formulate effective remanufacturing support policies when consumers have the emotion of brand loyalty. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Online Retailer's Inventory Information Disclosure and Joint Pricing and Inventory Decision Model with Strategic Consumers QIU Ruo-zhen, LI Xu-ge 2021, 29 (1):  59-71.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.006 Abstract ( 475 )   PDF (2919KB) ( 287 )   Save With the advance of Internet technology and e-commerce, the convenience and comprehensiveness of consumers' access to product information have been greatly enhanced. By observing online retailer's discount strategies in longterms, consumers are beginning to evaluate the value from waiting for products to cut prices,which may delay their purchases. However, it has been putting tremendous pressure on online retailers. In order to deal with the waiting behavior of consumers,online retailers have been beginning to selectively disclose inventory levels information. For example, there are twenty one online retailers hiding inventory levels information within the thirty firms at the top of Internet Retailer Top 500 list, and of the remaining nine, there are eight online retailers irregularly disclosing the exact inventory levels, and only one sharing inventory levels.Therefore, how online retailers develop inventory disclosure strategies to deal with the waiting behavior of strategic consumers becomes an issue that is worthy of studying. In this paper, a two-echelon supply chain consisted of a single supplier and a single retailer who sells products in two consecutive periods is considered. Before the selling season begins the online retailer orders products from the supplier as the inventory to meet market demand. After the start of the selling season, the retailer sells products to strategic consumers through online channel.Specially, the online retailer are facing three out-of-stock situations including out-stock in the first period and out-stock in the second period and no out-stock in the two periods, respectively.Moreover, two kinds of inventory disclosure strategies including inventory information sharing and masking are considered respectively.A two-period sales profit maximization problem is then developed to determine the optimal retailer price and order quantity. To solve the above problem, consumers' buying behaviors under the two kinds of inventory disclosure strategies and the three out-stock scenarios are analyzed, and some analytical solutions with sensitivity analysis are presented. Furthermore, numerical examples are performed to analyze the impacts of the parameters on the online retailer's decisions and profit, and compare the two inventory level information disclosure strategies. The results show that the retailer's optimal pricing and inventory decisions are affected by the consumer's valuation discount coefficient and the sale price in the second period. Especially, the online retailer prefers to share the inventory information when choosing to stock-out in the first period. If the online retailer chooses to stock-out in the second period or no stock-out, there exists a threshold for the consumer's valuation discount coefficient, below which the online retailer will prefer to mask the inventory information; otherwise, he will choose to share the inventory information. The research results provide important reference value and practical significance for enterprises to develop inventory disclosure strategies to cope with strategic consumers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Six Location-inventory Models with Risk Pooling in Two-echelon Logistics System XIONG Hao, YAN Hui-li 2021, 29 (1):  72-81.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.007 Abstract ( 516 )   PDF (1383KB) ( 265 )   Save Location-inventory problem and risk pooling strategy are both very common in logistics network. And location-inventory with risk pooling has obtained the attention of some researchers. Inspired by their research, in this paper, six risk-pooling strategies are combined with traditional location-inventory model and six new location-inventory models with risk pooling are built in a two-echelon logistics network. First, six different risk-pooling strategies are introduced. Risk pooling strategy is composed by safety stock policy and transshipment policy. In two-echelon logistics network, the safety stock could set at upstream regional distribution center or downstream frontier distribution center considering two segments lead time separately or both. As the lateral transshipments will happen when the safety stock is set intensively, then the transshipment cost should be considered in the model with centralized safety stock setting policy. So, the main differences of these models are that they have different safety inventory cost function and different transshipment cost function. However, these different risk pooling strategies could also affect the location and allocation decision indirectly. As the models with risk pooling strategies are non-convex, and they are hard to solve, a genetic heuristic algorithm is proposed. In the genetic heuristic algorithm, the genetic part is set to search the location and the heuristic part is set to do the allocation procedure. Finally, a numerical experimental is presented to prove the validity of our algorithms and models. The results prove both our models and algorithms have good performance. They also show that risk pooling strategy really has great impact on the location-inventory decision. And this impact mechanism related to two important trade-off pairs: 1) safety stock cost and transshipment cost; 2) safety stock cost or transshipment cost and total cost. Furthermore, the trade-off between safety stock cost or transshipment cost and total cost are depend on the ratio of unit cost of safety stock and transshipment. And the threshold value of this ratio is decided by all the other inputs of the model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Omni-Channel Operation Strategy Based on Consumer Behavior Preference under Vendor Managed Inventory JI Ya-jie, MA De-qing, HU Jin-song 2021, 29 (1):  82-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.008 Abstract ( 572 )   PDF (2191KB) ( 314 )   Save In the context of vendor managed inventory, the influence of consumers' online reference quality effect, offline inventory effect and channel preference on the operation strategy of supply chain members are studied. Using differential game theory and continuous dynamic programming theory, the members' strategies and performance under three modes of independent operation, independent operation based on cost-sharing contract of supplier service, and cooperative operation are obtained. The comparative analysis shows that cost-sharing contract of supplier service can encourage the retailer to improve the service of offline products, so as to improve the performance of independent operation mode in Pareto. In order to further coordinate the decentralized supply chain, the contract of supplier benefit sharing and bilateral cost sharing is designed based on the unilateral cost-sharing contract of supplier service. The numerical example shows that whether the contract of supplier benefit sharing and bilateral cost sharing is accepted by the members of the supply chain is related to the profit-sharing proportion of the supplier. Under the premise that this contract is valid, the members' strategies of this contract are to reach the level of cooperative operation when the cost-sharing proportion of the members meets certain conditions. At this time, this contract can achieve perfect coordination of the performance of decentralized supply chain. By the research on consumers' online reference quality effect, offline inventory effect and channel preference, it shows that reference quality effect can reduce the enthusiasm of the supplier's big data marketing service and the retailer's offline service, but can motivate the supplier to improve the product quality. At the same time, consumers' reference quality rely excessively on goodwill will easily lead to "anchoring mentality", which will not only inhibit the enthusiasm of channel members in production and service, cause inventory backlog, hinder the accumulation of goodwill, lead to the reduction of profits of enterprises, but also not conducive to consumers to obtain a higher and better shopping experience. Secondly, for inventory effect, enterprises should increase the production quantity appropriately, and reduce the product quality, big data marketing service and offline service level accordingly. Finally, the influence of consumers' different channel preference on enterprise decision-making is different. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Production and Carbon Trading Strategy of Closed-loop Supply Chain Network under Cap-and-Trade System ZHANG Gui-tao, WANG Guang-qin, ZHAO Xin-yu, LIU Yang 2021, 29 (1):  97-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.009 Abstract ( 454 )   PDF (2155KB) ( 352 )   Save It has already run into a common view among industry, academia, government and consumers that reducing carbon emissions in production and consumption because greenhouse gases have caused environmental disasters such as rising temperatures and climate change. Thus, carbon emission reduction has become an important issue to be solved at present all over the world. In the supply chain, the production is one of the main process of carbon emission. In practice, the supply chain is a network structure for the complex trading relationships. At the same time, in China, after several years of pilot, carbon trading market has begun to conduct carbon trading. Herein, the enterprises' production and carbon reduction strategy under the Cap-and-Trade system in a closed-loop supply chain network consisting of two types of manufacturers and various demand markets. The first type of manufacturers can be called high-emission manufacturers, because they emit more carbon when producing unit product; and the second type of manufacturers can be called low-emission manufacturers, because they emit less carbon when producing unit product. Manufacturers of the same type produce homogeneous products, while manufacturers of different types produce heterogeneous products, and there is no competition between them. No loss of generality, we assume that the high-emission manufacturers buy carbon emission rights from low-emission manufacturers, and they trade carbon emission right in carbon trading center based on carbon quotas from government, which forms a carbon trading subnetwork; meanwhile, the manufacturers and demand markets trade products, which forms a product trading subnetwork. Combining with variational inequality and complementarity theory, a profit maximization model for two types of manufacturers and carbon trade center is established, and the nonlinear programming of maximizing profit with constraints is transtformed into a variational inequality problem. In turn, the optimal conditions for the trading price, production and carbon emission reduction strategy in the closed-loop supply chain network are obtained further the conditions that how to reach equilibrium between various decision-makers in the supply chains acquired. The modified projection method is employed for solving this variational inequality. In the numerical examples, the impacts of carbon quotas of the two types of manufacturers respectively, and the recovery rate of EOL products on the equilibrium states and the profits of enterprises are paid attention to. Thus, several conclusions with certain reference value are deduced by analyzing the changing of relevant parameters. The results show that there is consistency between enterprise profit target and government emission reduction target under some conditions. The carbon trading volume of the two types of manufacturers is the same in most cases, but when the carbon quota increases to a certain extent, there may be inconsistencies; it is not feasible to set the same recovery rate for different types of manufacturers, the manufacturer's actual recovery rate may be higher than the government's minimum recovery rate. The research in this paper analyzes the production and carbon trading strategy of enterprises considering the competition of the closed-loop supply chain network, which enriches the carbon trading theory and expands the research scope of supply chain network. The background and models of carbon trading in this paper have enabled us to deepen our understanding of Cap-and-Trade system. In the background of green development, this study provides certain instructions and reference for government and enterprises to achieve the goal of carbon reduction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Two-echelon Supply Chain Coordination Strategy Based on Carbon Labeling System PAN Yong-ming, ZOU Ding-hua, ZHANG Zhi-wu 2021, 29 (1):  109-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0119 Abstract ( 513 )   PDF (894KB) ( 207 )   Save A Stackelberg Game model is built based on a random perspective of market demand and a research is pus forward on two-level supply chain coordination strategy consisting of suppliers and retailers based on the carbon labeling system.Assuming that the market needs random and perfect competition, Stackelberg game model is constructed with the two-level supply chain consisting of suppliers and retailers as the research object. First, the optimal carbon footprint, optimal order batch and maximum objective function of these two factors in decentralized and centralized decision-making are solved. Secondly, it can be seen that centralized decision is better than decentralized decision after the comparison between decentralized decision variables and optimal values of objective functions. Then, on the basis of the centralized decision theory, the cost sharing coefficient variable of reducing carbon footprint and the gain sharing coefficient variable are introduced for two objective functions, and the optimal solution of the coefficient variable of optimal carbon footprint and optimal order batch is obtained. Finally, according to the example analysis and sensitivity analysis, the optimal value of carbon footprint, order quantity and objective function in the case of centralized decision is obviously better than that of decentralized decision. Moreover, the effect of contract decision is equivalent to centralized decision, and the variation range of centralized decision and contract decision is apparently larger than that of two decision variables under decentralized decision. The carbon emission problem is not a zero sum game problem. The carbon footprint is taken as a variable to build the cost sharing and benefit sharing model, which can be regarded as a feasible solution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Production Decisions of Competitive Manufacturers under Traceability System XU Ruo-fen, XU Chang, FAN Ti-jun 2021, 29 (1):  116-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2021 Abstract ( 418 )   PDF (2012KB) ( 182 )   Save Research source of the problem: Frequent food safety incidents are shocking the world, which become the focus of worldwide attention. Food traceability system has become an effective regulatory to control food safety. Will the effect of traceability systems on food safety change as consumers pay more attention to food safety? How do manufacturers make operational decisions when competition intensifies? Research source of the problem: Frequent food safety incidents have caused serious consequences to people's health and life safety and aroused the attention of the world. Food traceability system and consumer risk aversion behavior are effective tools to control food safety incidents. However, the traceability and the degree of consumer risk aversion have heterogeneity in different supply chain and market. How traceability and degree of consumer risk aversion affect manufacturers' safety efforts, prices of foods, and profits in a duopoly market? Description of the problem: Consider two manufacturers located at each end of a Hotelingline and sellinga homogeneous food.Consumers can be divided into two groups: one with high risk aversion and the other with low risk aversion. The risk aversion coefficients of two groups are γ1 and γ2 respectively. Manufacturer i decides his or her own food price pi and safety efforts ei, then delivers foods to consumers. It is defined that food safety incidents will occur with probability of θi=1-ei. Supervisors launch traceability system after incident to punish the responsible manufacturer with traceability Ti, the expected loss of the traceable manufacturer is Ti(1-ei)L. Method model of research: In this paper, a duopoly game model is formulated with consideration of the heterogeneity of consumer risk aversion behavior and traceability system. Then, the Nash equilibrium results of the optimal prices and safety effort for food manufacturers is derived. Furthermore, the impacts of traceability as well as the consumers' risk aversion on optimal prices and safety effort of food manufacturers is analyzed. Finally, the profits of the players are obtained by using the economics theory. Problems- solving ideas: In the first stage of the game, two food manufacturers simultaneously announce prices of their products and decide their optimal effort of food safety to maximize their profits. Then, consumers choose one manufacture and purchase food based on the principle of utility maximization. In the second stage, food safety incident occurred, the supervisors track down the responsible manufacturer by traceability system. Finally, the problematic manufacturer can be traced back and heorshe needs to undertake compensation of the food safety incident. Research result: The results show that the optimal price and safety effort increase with the manufacturer's own food traceability, and decrease with his competitor. For food manufacturer with a higher traceability, the optimal price and safety effort always increases in the proportion of high-risk aversive consumers; for manufacturer with a lower traceability, the optimal price always decreases with the proportion of high-risk aversive consumers, while the optimal safety effort first increases and then decreases with the proportion of high-risk aversive consumers. Finally, as the proportion of high-risk aversive consumer increase, the impact of the food traceability of each manufacturer on his decision-making changes. The introduction of case data: the data in the article is referenced with the former related papers in the portion. thus, the results of the numerical analysis in the paper can reflect the reality better. Contributions: we explicitly model the competing of two food manufacturers with considering the heterogeneity of consumers' safety risk aversion and traceability system. It is specific analysis the impact of the consumer, the competitor, and traceability system on food manufacturers' operational strategies, which enriched the research on food safety issues. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-commodity Unpaired Supply-demandand Split Pickup and Delivery Vehicle Routing Problem with Multi-depot and Multi-type Trucks XU Dong-yang, LI Kun-peng, CUI Li-gang, TIAN Qian-nan 2021, 29 (1):  127-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.012 Abstract ( 485 )   PDF (1424KB) ( 226 )   Save In order to extend market shares and provide high quality services for regional customers, numerous large manufacturers and chain retailers have built nationwide production or selling networks.For instance, for a Chinese manufacturer with several regional factories across the whole country,each factory stores a certain amount of different materials. Frequently, some factories face the shortages of specific certain materials but are abundant with other materials. Hence, the manufacturer needs to make proper allocations among these factories to their demand. This problem has already drawn great attention from the academic world and is named as the vehicle routing problem with pickup and delivery(VRPPD).Current researches on VRPPD conventionally involving several factors, e.g., depot numbers,trucks types, commodity categories, service times of customers.Relevant literature generally assumes the paired supply-demand, single truck parking depot, homogeneous vehicles, single commodity and one-time service of the pickup and delivery request with the aim of obtaining the shortest total travelling distance.However, from the perspective of practical operations, a good planned transportation scheme not only includes well-arranged visiting routes of customers, but also comprises well-connected supply-demand pairs among customers. Moreover, it is rational to jointly consider the travelling distance and the weights of the commodities when evaluating the logistics transportation costs. Besides, multi-depot, heterogeneous trucks and multi-commodity are all common practices in transportation networks and customers' demands usually larger than the capacity of a single truck, all these should be considered for modeling.Therefore, a new VRPPD is buitt to minimize the total of the transportation cost (given by the travelling distances×the weight of transportation commodities) and the fixed cost of the dispatching trucks (based on tonnage) under the conditions of multi-depot, heterogeneous trucks, multi-commodity, unpaired supply-demand and the split request of pickup and delivery. An iterated local search algorithm based on a large neighborhood search strategy is presented, in which a greedy strategy for improving transportation efficiency to quickly obtain high-quality initial feasible solutions is applied. Moreover, to enhance the global searching ability of the proposed algorithm, four removal operators, two repair operators, depots &type-based truck adjustment strategies are introduced, which helps expand the large-scale feasible search neighborhood to the utmost. The effectiveness of the above model and algorithm is verified by 18 instances in related literature and 6 actual cases in an enterprise. The experimental results demonstrate that:1) The proposed algorithm is superior to the existing algorithm in terms of solution quality and solution time, when solving the closely related problem in the literature. 2) Comparing to the manual allocation scheme, the allocation scheme proposed in this paper can help enterprises to save 33% of transportation costs and 21% of vehicle number. The research not only extends the existing theory of VRPPD, but also provides decision support for enterprises at the practical interactive allocation operations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Pricing for Ride-Hailing Platforms with Different Competition Conditions under Stochastic Demand SUN Zhong-miao, XU Qi 2021, 29 (1):  138-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1965 Abstract ( 573 )   PDF (2198KB) ( 632 )   Save In recent years, ride-hailing platforms based on the sharing economy have been rapidly popularized and have subverted the traditional taxi market. These platforms often face the mismatch between supply and demand caused by market demand fluctuations and the competition between platforms. In view of the optimal pricing problem with the competitions of demand and supply among ride-hailing platforms under the ride demand fluctuation. Using optimal control theory, the dynamic pricing models considering platform competition with different conditions in which the object is to maximize platform expected profit is constructed. The optimal dynamic competitive price solution is deducted using Hamiltonian function, and the demand rate and supply rate is presented. Through the model analysis and numerical simulation, the optimal dynamic competitive pricing strategy based on time change under different market situations is studied. The influences of supply market competition, demand market competition and fixed commission contract on platform pricing and profit are analyzed. Results show that the optimal dynamic competitive price of the platform changes dynamically with the fluctuation of market demand, and the optimal price can effectively regulate the supply capacity, promote the matching of supply and demand, and optimize the expected revenue of the platform. In addition, the more intense the competition in the ride demand market, the lower the optimal price of the platform, while the more intense the competition in the supply market, the higher the optimal price. The intensified competition between platforms will reduce the platform's expected revenue, and the expected revenue will first increase and then decrease with the increase in the fixed commission rate of return. This study can provide some management insights for ride-hailing platforms' pricing decisions, supply-demand match and competitive strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quasi-Public Products: Research on Volume Management of Sharing Bike Considering Government Regulatory Mechanism ZHAO Ju, QIU Ju, HOU Chun-bo 2021, 29 (1):  149-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0874 Abstract ( 513 )   PDF (1568KB) ( 170 )   Save With the rapid development of information technology, bike-sharing, which is based on "Internet+" mode, become a best choice for a city to solve the "last kilometer" problem. However, it has also brought a series of public problems due to excessive volume, such as wasting resources and increasing difficult for city management, etc. Thus, how to manage the number of sharing-bike put into the market is very important for both firms who operate bike-sharing business and relevant government departments. To this end, an evolutionary game model is conducted to study the long-term dynamic evolution process of government departments and bike-sharing operators. Results show that, when performance rewards of regulatory is high, the evolutionary equilibrium strategy is regulatory and rational volume. That is, enlargement of supervision strength and punishment strength is helpful to promote bike-sharing operators putting rational volume of bikes into cities and government departments actively regulating the market of bike-sharing. From the perspective of public management, it is necessary for bike-sharing operators to take the social benefits into account when deciding the supply volume of sharing-bike. And the government departments should actively regulate the market, guiding bike-sharing operators to establish an effective market rule. Then, the evolutionary game model is extended by considering social supervision through social media in which how social media supervision influence the outcome of evolution is discussed. Through analysis of evolution equilibrium strategy, some crucial findings are obtained. Specifically, in addition to increasing performance reward of regulatory and reducing regulatory costs, it is necessary to enlarge the punishment strength for bike-sharing operators who put bikes into market unreasonably and give an effective play to the supervision from social platforms. It increases possibility of realizing a stable market structure with a government that play a role of regulation and bike-sharing operators who can effectively manage the quantity of sharing-bikes. Above results not only explain why the current market of bike-sharing is falling, but also prove that it is a relatively stable evolutionary trend for government departments to participate in regulation when they consider sharing-bikes as quasi-public products. Additionally, how performance rewards of regulatory, punishment strength, the supervision from social platforms and other factors affect evolution path is clear. Thereby, it provides theoretical basis for bike-sharing operators to response to market changes and government departments to formulate regulatory strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Long-term Industrial Structure and Electricity Price Trend in China's Power Market PU Yong-jian, YU Sha, HUANG Yi-xiang 2021, 29 (1):  158-167.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.015 Abstract ( 431 )   PDF (3692KB) ( 219 )   Save The market-oriented reform of power-selling power is regarded as the driving engine to promote a new round of power system reform and optimize the allocation of power resources. At this stage, the power market is in the process of smooth transition from the existing pattern to the marketization, and a series of changes have taken place in the participants, functions and industrial organization forms of the power market. After the dynamic reconstruction of the structure of the power market, it is expected to be in a stable development pattern. Considering above, the Stackelberg game (leader and follower game) is expanded into a two-stage game to describe the two major market behaviors of the seller in the long-term power market after the liberalization of the selling side in China. In the first phase, the seller negotiates with the wholesaler on a bilateral basis. In the second phase, different electric companies compete for market share in the retail market.Finally, the long-term power market equilibrium is solved by reverse induction, and the numerical simulation is used to compare and analyze the long-term and short-term differences, compare the effects of reform, and put forward corresponding policy suggestions. Research results show that:(1) The equilibrium wholesale electricity price of the long-term power market is lower than the equilibrium wholesale electricity price in the period of total monopoly. (2) In the reform effect, compared with the short-term reform, the competitive long-term reform pattern is more effective. Specifically, the long-term equilibrium electricity price and the equilibrium wholesale electricity price fluctuate less with the discount rate than the short term. (3) At the policy implementation level, with the reform and the increase of competition, the gradual transition of the object of adjustment from electricity wholesalers to electricity sales companies will help to ensure the fairness and efficiency of the market competition in the sale of electricity. Due to the lack of sufficient long-term experience in electricity market liberalization, there are certain theoretical and practical requirements for designing models to infer possible long-term market development to support decision-making and policy design. By specifying the profit function of the wholesaler and the selling company, the equilibrium electricity price solution can be obtained directly to see the effect of the selling side liberalization policy. Further research can consider more realistic background and include more parameter variables to better simulate the power market situation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Contract Design for Intellectual Property Conflict Coordination of Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Based on Reference Point WU Ying, XIAO Yuan, SU Hong, ZHAO Chen-yuan 2021, 29 (1):  168-177.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.016 Abstract ( 344 )   PDF (1950KB) ( 243 )   Save In the context of China's innovation-driven strategy, industry-university-institute cooperation has become an important path to improve China's self-innovation capability. However, due to agent heterogeneity and information asymmetry, corporate parties and academic counterparts may dissent on certain core research and development achievements, namely intellectual property conflicts, which can lead to loss of efficiency and breakdown of cooperation. In this regard, two most controversial value conflicts——value of intellectual property transaction prices and the value of intellectual property rights are selected as pointcut of this paper which involve the core interests in practice of the intellectual property conflict of both parties. In this paper, the optimal division of intellectual property and design of intellectual property transaction contract in industry-university-institute cooperation are analyzed through building reference point contract model based on incomplete contract theory. In this model, asymmetry assumptions of bargaining power, value cognition and reduction behavior of enterprises and institutions are adopted rather than symmetry hypothesis in traditional research because of misaligned reference points. The perspectives of optimal ex ante intellectual property allocation is calculated, ex post self-enforcing price range solution and ex post intellectual property transaction prices selection are solved. Based on the allowable variation range of parameters, the initial value of model parameter is chosen randomly and makes a simulation. Simulation results validate model conclusions.Research suggests that changes in the allocation of innovation intellectual property rights will have an impact on the overall efficiency of the industry-university-research collaboration. Flexible price contract assists ex post prices to vary within self-compliance interval and thus improves ex post efficiency. However, it cannot completely avoid the reduction conducts. Therefore, optimizing the selection of ex post prices is needed to achieve the overall optimal efficiency of industry-university-institute cooperation.The conclusions can be used for solving the core intellectual property conflicts in the industry-university-institute cooperation, as well as the property rights distribution and transaction contract mechanism design of innovation cooperation against the background of subject heterogeneity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Formatting Mechanism of Investor Sentiment ZHANG Bo, HU Wen-xiu, YANG Xi-an 2021, 29 (1):  185-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.018 Abstract ( 433 )   PDF (1684KB) ( 219 )   Save As a hotspot issue of behavioral finance, most of the existing researches on the investor sentiment focus on its influence on traders' behavior and financial market. But there are few in-depth studies on the influencing factors and generating mechanism of investor sentiment. So which factors have significant impact on investor sentiment, and in which way do they affect investor sentiment? The answers to these questions will be directly related to the in-depth understanding of the development and evolution rule of investor sentiment, as an important behavior financial variable. So research on this topic has certain theoretical and practical value. On the basis of potential inducing factors of investor sentiment revealed by Dasgupta and Chattopadhyay (2014), under the guidance of the combination of standard financial theory and behavioral finance theory, we try to describe the formatting mechanism of investor sentiment in the stock market in this paper. A formatting mechanism concept model of the investor sentiment with three hypothesis on different channel is established. Monetary environment, market yield, market volatility and related asset return are set to be independent variables in the model, as well as market investment value and market expectation are set to be intermediate variables in the concept model. Using 667 groups of Chinese stock market daily data from July 1, 2014 to March 31, 2017, an empirical research is made to by establishing VAR model, which integrates the above independent variables and intermediate variables into a systematic research framework. The empirical results show that the direct influence on investor sentiment by market yield is verified, the hypothesis that market expectation acts as intermediate variable is partially verified, and the hypothesis that market investment value acts as intermediate variable is not verified. It is also found that there exists a positive feedback loop among the market yield, market investment value and investor sentiment. The research in this paper reveals the influencing factors system and its implementation path of the investor sentiment formation, and furthers the research in this field to the level of mechanism, which also provides a more feasible idea for the study of the evolution law of investor sentiment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of the Impact and Effect Test of Urban Vehicles Restriction on PM2.5 Emission SUN Chuan-wang, XU Shu-hua 2021, 29 (1):  196-206.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1998 Abstract ( 495 )   PDF (1571KB) ( 200 )   Save Many cities in China have implemented to take traffic restrictions policy to alleviate road congestion and control vehicle pollution. However, there are few studies which focus on the effects of different kinds of restriction regulations on air pollution from the perspective of cities. In this paper, the policies are classified as general restriction and specialized restriction. Based on the Difference-in-Difference model using panel data of provincial capitals and municipality cities in China from 2001 to 2017, the effects of different traffic restrictive regulations on PM2.5 emission are evaluated. The results presents as follows. Firstly, the vehicles have become one of the main sources of urban PM2.5 emission, and vehicle restriction measures are increasingly used during the urban air pollution control. Secondly, both general restriction and specialized restriction can effectively reduce PM2.5 emission, but the effect of specialized restriction policy is more significant. Thirdly, the intensity of traffic restrictions, like the factors of the restricted area and the restricted numbers of vehicle, can apparently influence the policy effects. Fourthly, according to the robustness test, the restrictive policy is still valid after removing the effect of sample "Beijing city" and all cities with "purchasing restrictive" policies. The impact of the vehicle restrictive regulation on mitigating PM2.5 emission is demonstrated, and the findings can provide more efficient and reasonable policy supports for the decision-makers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision-making Method in Response to Public Opinion Crisis Considering the Satisfaction of the Public under Multiple Inducing Information WANG Zhi-ying, LI Yong-jian, LIU Xiao-di 2021, 29 (1):  207-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2072 Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (1232KB) ( 196 )   Save In recent years, multiple inducing information are often derived from frequent outbreaks of emergencies because of their suddenness, harmfulness and uncertainty, which usually arouse the panic of the public and dominant the formation and evolution of public opinion crisis (POC). However, the existing studies are less concerned with the decision-making problem of responding to POC under the situation of multiple inducing information. Therefore, this decision-making problem is first described on the basis of introducing basic theories and methods. Then, after analyzing the attribute structure of inducing information, a quantitative approach is developed at the attribute level based on prospect theory, to calculate the public satisfaction with development trend of multiple inducing information under the specific scenario and response plan of POC. Further, considering the impact of response plans on the evolution of scenarios of POC, a risk decision method is proposed based on cumulative prospect theory from the perspective of the intervention of the public satisfaction, to select optimal plan from alternatives. Finally, taking the decision-making problem of responding to POC in the situation of a major infectious disease epidemic as an example to illustrate the potential application and validity of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method could obtain optimal plan from alternatives on the basis of simultaneously considering the public satisfaction, behavioral characteristics of decision-makers and the effects of response plans on the evolution of scenarios of POC at the level of attributes of multiple inducing information. The studies could not only enrich the system of decision-making method for selecting optimal plan from alternatives in response to POC under the emergency management paradigm of "scenario-response", but also provide theoretical references for the prevention of potential secondary events derived from POC, such as material panic buying, unlawful assembly and group petitions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pythagorean Fuzzy Uncertain Linguistic Decision Making Method Based on Heronian Mean Operator LI Peng, SHEN Zhi-jie 2021, 29 (1):  217-225.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.021 Abstract ( 395 )   PDF (690KB) ( 184 )   Save Multiple attribute decision making method is one of the current hot research subjects and has been applied to a large amount of practical decision problems. With the development of society, owing to the lack of information or decision makers' hesitation, traditional crisp numbers are difficult to deal with this situation. Different types of uncertain numbers are proposed, such as fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy number, linguistic term, Pythagorean fuzzy number. When decision makers evaluate some subjective information, they may feel comfortable to use linguistic terms. However, when they have some hesitation on their opinions with linguistic terms, they may use Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic numbers. Therefore, solving the multiple attribute decision making problems with Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic numbers is meaningful. In some cases, attribute weights may be unknown and attributes are interactional. To cope with this issue, a multiple attribute decision making method is proposed based on grey incidence analysis and Heronian mean (HM) operator. Firstly, the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic Heronian mean (PFULHM) operator and the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic geometric Heronian mean (PFULGHM) operator are proposed and their properties including idempotence, monotonicity, boundedness and commutativity are proved. Considering the attribute weights with different importance, based on the above two operators, the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic weighted Heronian mean (PFULWHM) operator and the Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic weighted geometric Heronian mean (PFULWGHM) operator are defined. Furthermore, a novel grey incidence analysis formula for Pythagorean fuzzy uncertain linguistic numbers, and a new method are proposed to obtain attribute weights using grey incidence analysis. Finally, a decision model based on PFULWHM operator and PFULWGHM operator is constructed and an example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. By means of the case study, we can draw the advantages of our method: (1)avoiding the loss of information; (2)solving decision making problem effectively with interactional attributes. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Health Information Exchange on the Number of Patients Transferred and the Quality of Service GUO Xin-xin, WANG Hai-yan, XU Meng-meng 2021, 29 (1):  226-236.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.022 Abstract ( 543 )   PDF (1436KB) ( 266 )   Save At present, there are serious "information island" among hospitals in China. The willingness of hospitals to participate in health information exchange is not high, and the health information of patients is stored in static fragments and cannot be effectively utilized. Considering that health information exchange in hospitals will reduce the switching costs of patients, a multi-stage duopoly dynamic game model is constructed to study the impact of health information exchange on the number of patients transferred and the quality of service during the hospital competition process. First of all, according to whether there is switching cost, patients are divided into new patients and experience patients, and the utility function of patients is described using Hotelling model, which aims to analyze the decision-making of patients. Then, under the circumstances of government price regulation and without considering the hospital's altruism, the objective function of the cumulative expected revenue of the hospital is constructed, and the dynamic programming method is used to solve the optimal service quality level of maximizing the cumulative expected revenue. The Markov perfect equilibrium for achieving patients mutual transferred and the coexistence of hospitals in the market is obtained. Finally, according to the fact that the patients switching costs is reduced to zero after participating in health information exchange, the changes of the number of patients transferred and the service quality are analyzed and compared. It is found that in the context of patients transfer among different hospitals before participating in health information exchange, the number of patients transferred is increased but there is an upper limit after participating in health information exchange. The increased number of patients transferred is positively correlated with the switch costs, but negatively correlated with the initial perceived utility difference. The level of service quality under equilibrium is higher than that before participating in health information exchange. Therefore, without changing the current mode of medical insurance payment, to accelerate the promotion of health information exchange, the government departments can regularly provide subsidies to hospitals based on the changes in the number of patients and the level of service quality, so as to motivate hospitals to actively participate in health information exchange. A quantitative expression of this subsidy is given in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Non-Radial Exceeding Expected Management Efficiency Evaluation Considering Multi-dimensional Cooperation Strategies XU Cheng-lei, ZHU Zi-jie, DUAN Wan-chun 2021, 29 (1):  237-248.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.01.023 Abstract ( 318 )   PDF (1739KB) ( 177 )   Save Existing unanticipated output problem focus on environmental DEA efficiency evaluation, generally on the premise of weak disposition and negative orientation, unable to adapt to the characteristics of "strategic disposition", "multi-dimensional efficiency expansion" and "evaluation-oriented integration" of exceeding expected output in the management efficiency evaluation. Based on existing studies, considering the limitations on weak disposition of environmental DEA, the multi-dimensional cooperative strategies of exceeding expected management efficiency and the efficiency spillover effect under the action of the corresponding strategy are summarized. In light of the non-radial measure basis for strategic evaluation of exceeding expected management efficiency, the contribution of multi-dimensional cooperative strategies are defined, the different proportions or non-linear transformations of each DMU in its strategic dimensions are evaluated, and the efficiency evaluation scheme in the sense of "input" cooperation and "output" distribution is formed. In light of the incomparable difficulty of the fuzzy evaluation results for the traditional DEA method, the evaluation information of hidden efficiency is coordinated and the requirement of the weight conversion of profit distribution of strategic alliance is converted combined with cooperative game idea and Shapley value solving method. The efficiency frontier surface conversion model considering the multi-level weight of the strategy-oriented function and the relative overall evaluation target is constructed, namely the CSG-DEA model. Finally, 16 provincial innovation teams from Yunnan Province are selected for empirical application (Date source: Science and Technology Department of Yunnan Province). The results show that teams in the fields of health care, environmental protection, green food development, design and packaging should focus on the coordination between the market environment and the development cycle. It is necessary to realize the system integration of R&D progress, technical goals and R&D path through more information docking, and then define the positioning of core competitiveness. Teams in the fields of data statistics and classification, new materials, etc. should focus on coordinating the realization of derivative income in the medium-term and long-term important cooperation expectations in multiple fields, and the differences in the leading role of relevant fields in supporting Yunnan's economic and social transformation and development need to be further clarified. Moreover, team in the case lacks an emerging efficiency growth point and there is an urgent need to adjust the old operational structure to match the team's overall strategy. The application results show that the methods and strategies constructed are effective and feasible, and it can provide decision reference for the evaluation of the exceeding expected management efficiency with special evaluation and multi-dimensional cooperation strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics