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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 September 2020, Volume 28 Issue 9 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Convertible Debt and Capital Structure with Debt Renegotiation Covenant
    ZHANG Yue-song, SONG Dan-dan, CHEN Biao
    2020, 28 (9):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.001
    Abstract ( 579 )   PDF (1757KB) ( 495 )   Save
    After 17th Feb, 2017, the convertible bond has become a very popular re-financing tool for listed companies in China due to the new refinancing policy. At the same time, it is noticed that the debt level in Chinese firms is very high and the bankruptcy liquidation cost is huge. So, how to design a reasonable convertible debt contract to reduce debt default risk is a very important question. To fulfill such requirement, debt renegotiation is introduced into convertible bonds in this paper. Most of the existing theoretical research regarding the capital structure with convertible bonds assume that the firm chooses bankruptcy liquidation when it faces financial distress. However, in practice debt renegotiation with debtholders is more popular. Thus, the research of convertible bonds with debt renegotiation on the firms' capital structure has both academic and practical value.
    Inspired by the composition of convertible bonds and debt renegotiation, a convertible bond financing model based on the trade-off theory is constructed. Firstly, the cash flow of the firm is described by the Geometric Brownian Motion. Secondly, debtholders can choose to negotiate with equityholders or liquidate after trade-off when they face the risk of debt default, and the case of bankruptcy liquida is set as the benchmark model. If the debtholders choose to negotiate with equityholders, debtholders don't receive coupon payments but a proportionof cash flow,S(x) after negotiation. It is assumed that θ* and (1-θ*)is the proportion of the firm value that equityholders and debtholders receive after negotiation separately, and η and 1-η is the bargaining power of quityholders and debtholders respectively. Thus, the θ* and S(x)can be solved using the Nash Bargaining model. Thirdly, the value of corporate securities and the algebraic equations of the liquidation, negotiation and conversion threshold are given by the dynamic programming and risk neutral pricing. Lastly, the impact of debt renegotiation on the firm's capital structure is explored.
    In the numerical analysis, the base parameter values are taken from Sundaresan and Wang (2007) and Lyandres and Zhdanov (2014) based on the empirical evidence. The results show that debt renegotiation can increase a firm's value and equity value, compared to the bankruptcy liquidation. For moderate equityholders' bargain power, debt renegotiation could increase debt value, lower leverage ratio, and increase social welfare level at the same time. The larger the equityholders' bargaining power, the earlier the conversion time that debtholders choose. This paper enriches convertible debt financing theory and provides a theoretical guide for firms issuing convertible bond without raising debt level.
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    Leverage Effect Combining Trading Information with Stochastic Microstructure Noise
    Yuan Hui-ling, XU Lu, Zhou Yong
    2020, 28 (9):  12-22.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1363
    Abstract ( 351 )   PDF (1174KB) ( 206 )   Save
    Leverage effect is a widespread existence in risk management, which is also an important topic in financial econometrics. On the other hand, it is valuable for us to study leverage effect based on the market trade information and the stochastic noise model, since that rich information is available and not viewed as the stochastic noise in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, the leverage effect combining trading information with stochastic microstructure noise model is studied, and the new estimator of leverage effect is proposed, which has the convergence rate n1/8. The variance and the relative theorems are also provided. A simulation is conducted to study that leverage effect could be estimated more efficiently and more accurately via the general market microstructure information. Simulation results show the leverage effect estimator performs better asymptotic normal property and smaller biases. An empirical study has been carried out to demonstrate that leverage effect is significant in forecasting volatility, which provides a useful theoretical basis for relevant financial departments to conduct financial guidance.
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    Optimal Contract Designing Based on Different Risk-Controlling Ability of Managers
    NI Xuan-ming, ZHAO Hui-min, HUANG Song, QIAN Long
    2020, 28 (9):  23-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.003
    Abstract ( 431 )   PDF (2803KB) ( 206 )   Save
    Moral hazard and adverse selection, sometimes referred to hidden actions and hidden information, have always been the focus of principal-agent theory, and also the core problem in the design of corporate compensation contract. But most study described the hidden information from the perspectives of output and cost, which were not comprehensive enough.
    In this paper, the hidden information of the agent is described from the perspective of the ability to control over profit risk, and the optimal compensation contract design is also explored under a single contract situation and two contracts situation.and the explicit optimal solutions are solved. The results show that, compared with the case of a single contract, the agents with different abilities under the two contract conditions would achieve the separation equilibrium, and the shareholders get higher expect return. The incentive of the contract to the managers with low abilities would decrease, while the incentive to the managers with high abilities would increase, but the utility would be distorted and decrease. It is also found that shareholders could design a single contract for high ability managers, but this method could fail when the proportion of local ability managers is too high, and designing two contracts would become the optimal choice again.
    The research results are verified through numerical simulation, and the findings of this paper would be helpful to provide important reference of the compensation contracts designing for industries that attach importance to the risk controlling ability of managers, such as private equity funds.
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    Pricing Asian Options under Uncertain Environment with Fuzziness and Randomness Considering Decision Maker's Subjective Judgment
    WANG Xian-dong, HE Jian-min
    2020, 28 (9):  33-44.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.004
    Abstract ( 405 )   PDF (1368KB) ( 137 )   Save
    Option pricing is one of the core issues in financial engineering research. The value of an option depends on the price of the underlying asset during the period of validity. Therefore, it is the basis and key of option pricing to properly construct the underlying asset price dynamic model. The mainstream option pricing model mainly describes the uncertainty of underlying asset price by stochastic differential equations.However, the financial system is highly complex. Owing to market fluctuations, human error, insufficient information and other reasons, the uncertainty cannot be described only by randomness. For instance, if the stock price is around 50 yuan, it is difficult to model the phrase "around 50" from the perspective of probability theory, obviously it has a fuzzy feature. The uncertainty in financial markets involves at least two aspects, namely, fuzziness and randomness, and these two aspects cannot be substituted. Randomness can be modeled by the stochastic analysis theory, and fuzziness can be modeled by the fuzzy set theory. In addition, the recent behavioral financial studies have shown that decision maker's subjective judgment, such as sentiment, preference and expectation, have a certain impact on decision-making.
    Based the above analysis, a fuzzy stochastic process model is constructed for underlying stock price by fuzzy random variables, and the stochastic analysis and fuzzy set theory are used to study the pricing problem of continuous geometric average Asian call options under uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness taking account of investor's subjective judgment. An Asian option is a popular financial derivative, where the payoff is based on the average underlying asset price over some pre-set period prior to maturity. The payoff structure of Asian options makes them less vulnerable to manipulation.
    Firstly, the arbitrary level cut sets of Asian option fuzzy price is deduced according to the definition of expectations of fuzzy random variables, and the problem of determining the confidence degree for any given reference price is converted into solving optimization problem.
    Secondly, the Asian option pricing problem is studied considering two kinds of decision-maker's subjective judgment. One is to introduce a fuzzy goal to represent the degree of decision maker's satisfaction for expected option price, and present the permissible range of rational expected Asian option prices such that the degree of reliability of the expected price is greater than the degree of decision maker's satisfaction. The other is to introduce pessimism-optimism index to represent the decision maker's pessimistic degree, and derive the Asian option pricing formula in the sense of possibility mean values defined based on weighing function and possibility evaluation measure.
    Finally, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the models. The results show that fuzzy stochastic modeling has good reliability and effectiveness. The permissible range of rational expected prices depends on the fuzzy goal selected by the decision-maker. The weighted possibility mean value of Asian option price is an increasing function of fuzzy factor, and is a decreasing function of pessimism-optimism index.
    The options pricing model considering decision maker's subjective judgment under uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness increases the flexibility of investment decision and has more practical significance. This paper makes up for the deficiency of the existing literature, and draws some valuable conclusions. It provides a new idea for the pricing of options and many other financial derivatives, risk management and investment decision under uncertain environment.
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    Interpretable Credit Risk Assessment Modeling Based on Improved Pedagogical Method
    DONG Lu-an, YE Xin
    2020, 28 (9):  45-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1491
    Abstract ( 439 )   PDF (1054KB) ( 315 )   Save
    Credit risk assessment is one of the important tasks in risk prevention and control of financial institutions. In recent year, the credit risk assessment based on machine learning models have received increasing attention due to their better predictive performance. However, the machine learning models lack the interpretability, which makes it impossible for decision makers to fully trust the models and their predictive results. To solve the above problem, an improved pedagogical method is proposed. The proposed method uses the machine learning models guide to construct the credit risk assessment based on a decision tree, which can assist investors in decision-making. In our approach, to improve the approximation degree between decision tree and the correct function of machine learning model, a pseudo date set sampling method based on Weight Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (Weight-SMOTE) is proposed to improve the proportion of pseudo samples, which is marked by the trusted function of machine learning model, in the pseudo data set. To achieve an effective trade-off between accuracy, interpretability and the consistency of generated decision tree with machine learning model, a new decision tree pruning method is proposed. At the same time, aiming at the limitation of fidelity evaluation indicator, a new evaluation indicator, true-fidelity, is proposed to effectively measure the approximation degree of the decision tree and the correct function of the machine learning model. In addition, three real credit risk assessment data sets are used in the experiment. The experimental results show that the improved pedagogical method can construct an interpretable credit risk assessment, which can meet the different decision-making preferences of decision makers.
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    Producer Services FDI Affects Manufacturing Industry's Export Sophistication Research
    LUO Jun
    2020, 28 (9):  54-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.006
    Abstract ( 363 )   PDF (1104KB) ( 110 )   Save
    The effect and mechanism of productive service FDI influence on the export technical sophistication of manufacturing are analyzed,based on China's provincial industry level data test the impact of producer services FDI on the manufacturing export technical sophistication systematically.The results show that:First, the productive services FDI mainly through indirect effects to promote the export technical sophistication of China's manufacturing industry, the overall effect depends on the combination of direct effects and indirect effects, direct effects, indirect effects and overall effects have regional heterogeneity.Second, dynamic analysis shows that the producer services FDI in the eastern region has steadily and continuously promoted the export technical sophistication of manufacturing,producer services FDI in Central China promotes manufacturing export technical sophistication through indirect effects after the financial crisis,the direct and indirect effects of the western region are not obvious after the financial crisis.Third,the mechanism of action shows that producer services FDI mainly promotes manufacturing export technical sophistication through the channels of technological innovation and production cost reduction at the national level,the role of service innovation channel is not significant,and mechanism of action of producer services FDI promotes the manufacturing export technical sophistication have regional heterogeneity.
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    Time-Space Evolution of China's Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity
    GUO Hai-hong, LIU Xin-min
    2020, 28 (9):  66-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.007
    Abstract ( 431 )   PDF (1712KB) ( 175 )   Save
    Basedon "resource-energy-economy-environment" to construct a theoretical frameworkfor agricultural green total factor productivity, design and measure indicators, improve EBM model and measure growth sources from static and dynamic perspectives with ML index, using nuclear density function and space Marcov chain to analyzes the dynamic evolution of China's agricultural green total factor productivity from the perspective of time and space. Results show that:Firstly,Agricultural green total factor productivity is more realistic and reasonable reflects agricultural efficiency. Second, China's agricultural green total factor productivity shows a slight upward trend increasing from 0.607 to 0.684 in 2006-2016,and the source of growth is the advancement of agricultural green technology. The regional differences in the total factor productivity of agricultural greens are obvious, and the regional differences will not shrink in the long run. The root of regional differences lies in the efficiency of agricultural green technology. The four-agricultural green total factor productivity has spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the spatial lag type has a significant impact on the degree of regional transfer stability; the neighboring is good and the neighboring is the same as the neighboring; and the agricultural green total factor productivity level is higher, the lowering will be lower. The probability of horizontal transfer, but cross-border growth is difficult to achieve.The policy implication is to strengthen the positive spatial spillover effect, weaken the negative spillover effect, and formulate regionally differentiated strategies to achieve coordinated green growth in agriculture in China.
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    Formation and Social Welfare of R&D Networks among Upstream and Downstream Firms
    SUN Lan, MEI Chang-shan
    2020, 28 (9):  76-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.008
    Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (4276KB) ( 148 )   Save
    This paper contributes to the increasing literature on modelling R&D network formation among firms using game theory approach. What distinguishes this paper from existing ones is that it allows the firms to form or delete links with both their suppliers and their competitors simultaneously. In a benchmark model, we try to highlight the pair-wise stable networks among all the possible formations and to characterize the properties of the pair-wise stable networks. Moreover, we try to verify the impacts of R&D collaborations'spillover on the formation of pair-wise stable networks and the social welfares.
    In a two-tier industry with one supplier S and two manufacturers Mi,(i=1,2), the four-step game proceeds as follows: at step 1, the supplier and the two manufacturers select their vertical and horizontal R&D links simultaneously. The R&D collaboration between the manufacturers and the supplier is called vertical links, and the one between two manufacturers is called horizontal link. At step 2, knowing the R&D network structure, the three firms (S, M1, and M2) choose the optimal R&D efforts to maximize their own profits. At step 3, the supplier S chooses to provide the quantity of inputs to two downstream manufacturers. At step 4, M1 and M2 compete in a Cournot market to choose the quantities of production simultaneously.
    In this benchmark model, there are 8 possible networks and 6 of them have different results at equilibrium. Under each network structure, the model is solved by using backward induction. First, the quantity of each manufacturer at equilibrium is worked out. Then the optimal R&D efforts for the three firms is solved, and thereby their profits under each network are computed. Finally, pair-wise stable network under Goyal and Joshi's concept is verified.
    The main finding is that the complete network is the unique pair-wise stable network if the R&D spillover rate between the two downstream competitors is not smaller than the one between the supplier and the manufactories. However, the unique pair-wise stable network may not always be the most efficient one from the social welfare point of view. Our results verify the empirical findings that R&D collaboration is ubiquitous in the industry and vertical collaboration is more prevalent than horizontal collaboration. Furthermore, a new perspective for further research on the R&D network of upstream and downstream firms is provided.
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    Retailer's Vertical Integration Strategy under Different Business Models: Forward, Backward, or No Integration?
    LI Pei, WEI Hang, WANG Guang-yong, FU Na
    2020, 28 (9):  86-97.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.009
    Abstract ( 487 )   PDF (1305KB) ( 173 )   Save
    With the development of the Internet, "new retail" has attracted widespread attention from the society. Vertical integration is one of the forms of "new retail" and has become an important strategy for retailers' transformation and upgrading. Because retailers need huge funds to integrate the whole supply chain, and there are few successful cases, most retailers will choose to integrate a single direction of firms in the supply chain.
    In practice, the direction of vertical integration is diverse, some retailers choose to forward integrate with service providers, whereas others opt to backward integrate with manufacturers. A forward integration strategy extends the retailer's functions to product service, tightening its connection with the consumer side, gaining revenue by provide services, but retailers need undertake the service cost. Conversely, a backward integration strategy stretches the retailer's operations toward production, tightening its control on the manufacturer side, reducing the intermediate process of production from production to sales and price competition, and increase profits by controlling the pricing power of products, but retailers need undertake the production cost. When retailers choose not integrate, they do not need undertake the cost of vertical integration, and the operational risk is also small. Moreover, these retailers who choose different vertical integration strategies have different business models: reseller model, platform model and hybrid model. The difference between these three different business models is mainly due to the contractual relationship between the retailer and the manufacturer, the way the retailer is profitable, and the pricing power of the product. These will inevitably affect the retailer's vertical integration strategy choice. Therefore, this paper mainly answers the following questions: should retailers choose vertical integration? if you choose vertical integration, what vertical integration strategy should retailers choose? how does the retailer's different business models affect its vertical integration strategy choices?
    We consider a supply chains, consisting of two manufacturers, a retailer and a service supplier. Retailers have three business models: reseller model, platform model and hybrid model. The paper is organized as follows: considering the product competition, the retailers' profit in no vertical integration, forward integration, and backward integration is studied under the reseller model, platform model, and hybrid model respectively by builds a linear function model. Moreover, the conditions of the retailer's optimal vertical integration strategy are given by comparison the equilibrium profit in different situation, and the influence of potential demand, the coefficient of the product competition, commission rate are analyzed. Finally, the influence of different business models on the vertical integration strategy of retailers is studied.
    The results show that: 1) with the increase of potential demand, in three different business models, the optimal strategy of retailers has changed from no vertical integration to backward integration to forward integration; 2) with the increase of competition between products, in reseller model and platform model, the retailer's optimal strategy from backward integrate to no vertical integration to forward integration, in hybrid model, the retailer's optimal strategy from backward vertical integration or no vertical integration to forward integration; 3) with the increase of commission rate, in platform model, the retailer's optimal strategy from forward integration to backward integration to no vertical integration, in hybrid model, the retailer's optimal strategy from forward integration or backward integration manufacturer 2 to no vertical integration to backward integration manufacturer 2.
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    Research on the Construction of Organic Agricultural Products Supply Chain Based on the Model of “Farmers+Restaurant”
    SUN Mei, ZHANG Min-xin, LI Guang-shui
    2020, 28 (9):  98-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.010
    Abstract ( 519 )   PDF (875KB) ( 161 )   Save
    Though organic agricultural products have enormous markets, the current supply chain mode of organic agricultural products is relatively simple,which cannot meet the needs of organic markets. In some places, the "farm to table" model has emerged. When the customers finish their meal at the restaurant, they can buy some organic agricultural products they like, such as Jin Ramin in New York and Green & Safe restaurant in Taiwan. Combining the practice of organic restaurants and some ordinary restaurants, this paper proposes a new mode of "farmer + restaurant". A special area is opened to sell the organic agricultural products, and customers can choose one or several of them after dinner.
    A two-echelon supply chain of only one producer and one retailer is researched, assuming that market demand is correlated with the effort level of producers and retailers. The Stackelberg game model is used to analyze the income of each member and the overall supply chain under these three modes of farmer direct selling mode (DC), "farmer + supermarket" mode (FS) and "farmer + restaurant" mode (FR).
    The conclusions are as follows:
    (1) If the unit cost is low enough and the sales volume is large enough, DC is a good mode;
    (2) In FS mode, if a reasonable wholesale price is given, farmers will improve their effort level and the income of the supply chain will be increased.
    (3) In FR mode, a higher wholesale price will be given, which can not only improve farmers' effort level, but also improve the overall income of the supply chain.
    Comparing these three models, the overall benefit of the supply chain of FR is the highest, because the value increment of agricultural products is the largest. From the agricultural products to the dishes on the table, the benefits have increased tremendously.
    In a word, a single mode is likely to bring absolutely strong position of the leading enterprise in the supply chain. Therefore, multiple development modes of organic agricultural products should be encouraged to raise the voice of farmers and improve the supply level of organic agricultural products. The government department should take some countermeasure to promote multiple modes coexistence of organic agricultural products supply chain pattern.
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    The Internal Knowledge Transfer Incentive Mechanism of Supply Chain with Supervisory Signal
    LI Zhi, SUN Rui, WANG Wei, YUAN Yuan
    2020, 28 (9):  106-114.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.011
    Abstract ( 367 )   PDF (2260KB) ( 103 )   Save
    At present, some research on incentive mechanism has started in the knowledge transfer within supply chain, but usually only considering the incentive to the knowledge supplier and ignoring the supervision to the knowledge supplier, which limits the incentive effect. In order to solve this problem, the mathematical modeling and computer simulation analysis methods are used. By introducing the supervisory signal, the knowledge transfer incentive models among the members of the supply chain are established on the basis of the basic incentive models of knowledge transfer among the members of the supply chain. It is found that the income level and transfer efficiency of knowledge transfer within the supply chain have been improved by using supervisory signals, but the income level and transfer efficiency of knowledge transfer between the upper and lower members of the supply chain are higher and more profitable than those of the same level members. The research results can provide practical guidance for supply chain enterprises to effectively carry out knowledge transfer activities and enhance the competitiveness of supply chain.
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    Optimal Quality Effort Strategy in O2O Food Delivery Service Supply Chain Based on Three Operation Models
    XING Peng, HE Tian-run
    2020, 28 (9):  115-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1628
    Abstract ( 691 )   PDF (3727KB) ( 312 )   Save
    With the emergence of various PC and mobile platforms, online payment has become more perfect than before, which makes catering takeout have a variety of operating modes. O2O food delivery as a new catering mode in the era of "Internet +" has received more attention from people day by day. Since competition in takeout industry is increasingly intense, how supply chain members avoid vicious competition and choose reasonable service quality effort and operation mode to ensure maximum revenue has become a problem to be solved. To address such decision-making challenges, in this paper, we examine such an O2O food delivery service supply chain including an O2O food delivery platform, a catering business and a distribution rider. O2O food delivery platform decides service quality effort and service cost, the catering business decides product price, while the rider who is motivated by the service quality of the platform or the catering business decides the effort level of the delivery service quality. We consider three operation models, merchant distribution, platform distribution and business self-built platform+ distribution, and explore which model is the best for the catering business. We establish profit models among three members by using game theory, and the optimal quality control strategy and the profit of the supply chain members under different conditions obtained. Using formula derivation and comparative analysis, we discuss the influence of the upper limit of the rider's incentive amount and market scale on the optimal strategies as well as profits of the service supply chain. Through numerical simulation, we can get the conclusions: Firstly, the profits of each member of the service supply chain increase with the rise of the market scale, and firstly increase and then decrease with the improvement of the upper limit of the rider's incentive amount. Secondly, when the market scale is small, the optimal profit of the platform is the largest under the platform delivery mode. However, when the market is large, platform + distribution mode is the best choice for catering business.
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    Optimal Decisions in a Green Supply Chain Based on Uncertainty Theory
    SANG Sheng-ju, ZHANG Qiang
    2020, 28 (9):  127-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.013
    Abstract ( 680 )   PDF (840KB) ( 373 )   Save
    With the introduction of a low-carbon economy and green GDP, green supply chain management has been received increasingly attention by the scholars and the market administrators in present times. In real world, especially for some new green products, the relevant precise dates are difficult to obtain due to lack of historical data. In this situation, the market base and production cost can usually be predicted by some experts.
    In this paper, in a two-stage green supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer, the optimal price and greening level decisions in an uncertainty environment is researched, where the costs of the manufacturer and the retailer, and the parameters of the market demand are all regarded as nonnegative and mutually independent uncertain variables. Three non-cooperative games including two Stackelberg games of the manufacturer and the retailer respectively dominating supply chain, and one Vertical-Nash game of the manufacturer and the retailer having the equal market power are analyzed. In the Manufacturer-Stackelberg game, the greening level and the wholesale price are firstly set by the manufacturer, and then the profit margin is decided by the retailer. In the Retailer-Stackelberg game, the profit margin is firstly set by the retailer, and then the greening level and the wholesale price are decided by the manufacturer. In the Vertical-Nash game, the greening level, the wholesale price and the profit margin are set simultaneously and independently. Their optimal solutions are derived by the method of uncertainty theory.
    Owing to the complicated forms of the solutions, a numerical example is given to compare the optimal solutions under three non-cooperative games. Based on the discussions, four main findings can be obtained. First, the profits of the manufacturer and the retailer are higher than those with crisp parameters. Second, the Manufacturer-Stackelberg game and the Retailer-Stackelberg game are the optimal strategy for the manufacturer and the retailer respectively, while the Vertical-Nash game is the optimal strategy for the customer. Third, with the uncertain degree of the coefficient of the greening level decreasing, the profit of the retailer are decreased in the three games, while, the profit of the manufacturer are decreased in the Manufacturer-Stackelberg game and the Retailer-Stackelberg game, and the profit of the manufacturer are increased in the Vertical-Nash game. Fourth, the profits of the manufacturer and the retailer increase as the uncertain degree of the green investment parameter decreases in the three games.
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    Research on Green Manufacturing Strategy Based on Network Externalities
    LIN Zhi-bing
    2020, 28 (9):  137-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0553
    Abstract ( 409 )   PDF (1173KB) ( 316 )   Save
    A consumer utility function is constructed while the green preferences of customers and the network externalities of products are considered. Based on it, the manufacturing strategies of the supply chain are analyzed. Firstly, the Stackelberg equilibrium is obtained by backward induction, then it is proved that the network externalities of products have positive effects on the performances of supply chain members. Second, the comparative analysis method is used to show the conditions for manufacturer to implement the green manufacturing strategy. Then, the information asymmetry model is studied. The results show that when the manufacturer's estimate of the network externality of green product meets certain conditions, the retailer's information sharing strategy is beneficial to both the manufacturer and the retailer. Finally, the model is extended to the hybrid manufacture strategy, and the effects of various parameters are discussed through numerical methods. The conclusions have important reference value for enterprises' green manufacturing decisions.
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    Study on Two-phase Economic Growth Path Based on Pollution Control and Energy Substitution
    CANG Ding-bang, WEI Xiao-ping, CAO Ming, TAN Li-yun
    2020, 28 (9):  146-153.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.015
    Abstract ( 373 )   PDF (911KB) ( 143 )   Save
    The coordinated development of energy consumption, economic growth and environment is an important aspect of sustainable development. How to achieve sustainable economic growth under the double constraints of energy and environment has always been a hot spot in energy economics research. Since the consumption of fossil energy will bring serious environmental externalities and intergenerational externalities, new energy sources have developed rapidly in recent years, and the role of promoting economic growth has become more and more obvious. China's energy transformation has begun, the share of new energy consumption in the energy consumption structure has increased rapidly, and the energy substitution effect is remarkable. To better understand the impact of the energy transition on economic growth,a two-phase economic growth model including the adoption of a backstop substitute and pollution control is studied. Then the optimal proportion of pollution investment accounted for GDP and the equation which optimal switching time satisfies is determined by social welfare maximization. At last the numerical simulation analysis is done to show the effect of some parameters on the optimal switching time and the optimal path of economic growth and the pollution are also given.The results show that at the optimal switching time of the two stage of economic growth path, the total amount of new energy support will decrease temporarily, but the economic growth rate of new energy supported is higher than that of traditional energy support.If the output elasticity of pollution in the traditional energy supported economy is larger, after the energy substitution occurs,longer time will be needed to control the pollution that has been produced.
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    Game Analysis in a Manufacturer Dual-channel Supply Chain with Different Power Structures
    SUN Zi-lai, WANG Xu-ping, ZHAN Hong-xin, RUAN Jun-hu
    2020, 28 (9):  154-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0501
    Abstract ( 511 )   PDF (923KB) ( 236 )   Save
    With the rapid development of e-commerce and logistics and express delivery industry and the change of people's consumption habits, more and more manufacturers have opened online direct channels, which form the dual-channel supply chain with their traditional wholesale channels. The manufacturer who opens an online direct channel finds that a dual channel strategy benefits him by taking away some consumers from the retailer, which makes the online direct channel become a serious competitive threat to the retailer. This is especially true when the manufacturer has less bargaining power, and the manufacturer is less likely to set a higher wholesale price and a higher price of the online direct channel since the retailer always has the power and profit maximizing incentive. Consequently, it is still a daunting task for many manufacturers to operate an online direct channel and traditional wholesale channel mixed dual-channel. Therefore, some key questions have to be addressed: How to develop a pricing strategy in an online direct channel and traditional wholesale channel mixed dual-channel to optimize manufacturer's profits? What effect do the supply chain different power structures have on the pricing decisions, demands and profits in a manufacturer dual-channel supply chain? Focusing on these issues, the manufacturer Stackelberg game, retailer Stackelberg game and Nash game models are established based on the members' different bargaining power. Then, it analyzes the impact of three power structures on supply chain participants' pricing decisions, demands, and profits. The results show that: When the market share of the manufacturer's traditional wholesale channel is smaller, (1) either when the cross-price elasticity of demand is equal to 0 or when it is not equal to 0, the influence of three game power structures on the equilibrium solution of manufacturer's dual-channel supply chain is robust to some extent; (2) the online direct channel price in the three game power structures is identical; the traditional channel price in the two Stackelberg games is identical and is bigger than the traditional channel price in the Nash game; the manufacturer's wholesale price decrease with the decline of the game dominance in the three games; (3) when the cross-price elasticity of demand is equal to 0, the influence of three game power structures on online direct channel is identical; when the cross-price elasticity of demand is not equal to 0, traditional channel demand in the two Stackelberg games is identical and is less than the traditional channel demand in the Nash game; the online direct channel demand in the two Stackelberg games is identical and is bigger than the online direct channel demand in the Nash game; (4) the manufacturer's profits and the retailer's profits decrease with the decline of the game dominance in the three games; however, the dual-channel supply chain's total profits in the Nash game is the maximum. This research complements the existing literature by concentrating on the pricing strategies from the manufacturer's point of view in an online direct channel and traditional wholesale channel mixed dual-channel. The analytical modeling results provide many interesting management enlightenments which can support manufacturers and their retailers, who are operating or intend to manage an online direct channel and traditional wholesale channel mixed dual-channel, developing appropriate pricing strategies based on their specific supply chain power structures and maximizing their financial profits.
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    Study on Consumer-oriented Types and E-tailer's Omnichannel Decision
    LANG Xiao, SHAO Xiao-feng
    2020, 28 (9):  164-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.017
    Abstract ( 478 )   PDF (1741KB) ( 188 )   Save
    With the development of omnichannel retailing, a growing number of e-tailers start entering the offline marketspace in order to expand the market demand and profit. The condition under which an e-tailer should adopt omnichannel decision is studied and multiple influence factors are considered, including different consumer-oriented types, consumer patience and unit operation costs in different channels. The multinomial logit (MNL) framework is adopted to characterize the consumer choice behavior in the basic model which the e-tailer only operates the online channel, and the optimal assortment and price are obtained. When the e-tailer adopts omnichannel decision, if the consumers are product-oriented, the MNL model is also adopted characterize their choice behavior; if the consumers are channel-oriented, the nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model is adopted to characterize their choice behavior. First, optimal prices for arbitrarily online and offline assortments are obtained. Then by analyzing the optimal price expressions, optimal assortments offered in different channels are obtained. Finally, by comparing the optimal profit with the basic model, the e-tailer's entry conditions under different consumer-oriented types are obtained. The results show that the products offered in the same channel always have the same optimal price, means that the e-tailer only needs to decide two prices: the online price and the offline price. The optimal delivery time is only related to the delivery cost function expression and the consumer patience factor. If the consumers are product-oriented, only when the difference between the dual channel operation cost is relatively small and the consumer patience factor is relatively large, the e-tailer should adopt omnichannel decision. The optimal assortment is offering the most popular product offline, and offering the remaining products online. If consumers are channel-oriented, omnichannel decision is always profitable for the e-tailer. The optimal assortment is offering the most popular product offline, and offering all products online. The results of this paper can provide some references for the e-tailer's channel, assortment and price decisions.
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    Cooperative Advertising Models in Supply Chains with Online Platform
    GAO Dan, WANG Yi-bao, CHEN Jing-wen
    2020, 28 (9):  176-187.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.018
    Abstract ( 452 )   PDF (1951KB) ( 211 )   Save
    Opening online direct marketing channels through the online retail platforms has been a common model for manufacturer, more and more consumers purchase products or services through online channel. Except pricing, advertising promotion is another one among the most important marketing strategies for manufacturer or retailer to stay competitive in the market, for example, online retail platform and traditional retailer invest great amount advertisement to attract consumers. In the traditional supply chain, the manufacturer often shares part of the retailer'sadvertising cost to encourage the retailer improve advertisement level then to improve profit.In order to explore which is the best partner for manufacturer in cooperative advertising activity when manufacturer confront online platform and retailer, four different cooperative advertising strategies are established in this paper: non-cooperation strategy, manufacturer only cooperate with traditional retailers,manufacturer only cooperate with online retail platform and manufacturer cooperating with retailer and online platform at the same time. By comparing the optimal decisions and member's profitin different strategies, the following results are obtained: 1) The optimal strategy for manufacturerimply that manufacturer should bearsome advertising cost for online retailer platform and offline retailer; 2) The optimal strategy is consistent among channel members when there is "free-rider" behavior inretailer andonline platform's advertising; 3) When there exist competition between two advertising effect, the optimal strategy of online platform (traditional retailers) advocate online platform(retailer) cooperate with manufacturer, under this strategy, the retailer and online platform's profit will decrease at a minimal degree.
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    Interdiction Network Design for Preventing Terrorist Invasion with Asymmetric Information
    XIANG Yin
    2020, 28 (9):  188-198.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.019
    Abstract ( 407 )   PDF (2908KB) ( 87 )   Save
    Since September 11 and a series of terrorist attacks, terror has become a major threat in the world. In order to prevent the terrorists abroad from invading into our country and mitigate the attack risk, the government can design an effective interdiction network in the border area.
    A counter-terrorism interdiction network design problem is considered which is in essence a security resources allocation problem in a fixed transportation network. This problem consists of two decision stages: the first decision stage belongs to the government who decides the optimal allocation of both "unconcealed" and "concealed" security resource in part of roads. Here the "unconcealed" resource is like security checkpoints that can be observed, while the "concealed" resource can be sensors which can't be observed directly. Both type of security resource can be used for reducing terrorist's passing probability on the fortified road. The second stage refers to the terrorist. After only observing the "unconcealed" resource, the terrorist decides the best attack target and intrusion path to maximize her perceived attack risk. Thus, the government's optimization problem is how to allocate both type of security resource in the network, such that the attack risk can be mitigate the most.
    According to the decision order, above problem is addressed as a bi-level programming model. The upper level problem is associated to the resource allocation problem of the government, and the lower level problem refers to terrorist's target choosing and intrusion path optimization. In order to solve this model, a hybrid algorithm is proposed, where an improved genetic algorithm is used in the upper level problem for enumerating and updating interdict plans, and the an exact algorithm is designed for solving the lower level problem when the interdict plans are fixed.
    Our model is finally applied in a case study of Kashi area. The numerical results show that: (i) the hybrid algorithm can always find good quality solutions in a very short time. (ii) As both types of resources are allocated ingenious enough, the "unconcealed" interdicts always function in the road chosen by terrorists, which greatly reduces the attack risk. (iii) the "concealed" resource is more effective in mitigating attack risk than the "unconcealed" resource.
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    Customer Preference Model Considering Feature Sentiment and Product Parameters
    WANG An-ning, ZHANG Qiang, PENG Zhang-lin, LU Xiao-nong, FANG Zhao
    2020, 28 (9):  199-208.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.020
    Abstract ( 417 )   PDF (1662KB) ( 179 )   Save
    Online review, which is access to the public, contains a variety of valuable information about product quality. Analyzing and mining of these information is very helpful for the enterprises to understand customer needs and preferences. Currently, the customer preference model based on online reviews considers the number and sentiment of the reviews, but ignores the impact of product parameters on consumers' purchasing decisions. Therefore, a customer preferences model that fuses feature sentiment and product parameters is proposed. First, the product features discussed in the online reviews must be extracted, and the sentiment polarities of the product features should be identified, thereby generating the feature sentiment by measuring the score of positive and negative sentiment. Then, an econometric model combining product parameters provided by the enterprises is built to reflect the influence of the feature sentiment and product parameters on product sales. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of our model, an online review text of 39 automotive products (SUV models) from autohome.com has been obtained, and sales tracking has been kept for 8 months. The results show that our model has better performance than the methods of information gain and TF-IDF. It is found that most product features and some product parameters have significant impacts on product sales. Besides, product parameters can enhance customers' perceptions on product quality. In addition, our conclusions explain the impacts of feature sentiment and product parameters on product sales, which provide a theoretical basis for marketing strategy and making product design decisions.
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    Research on Initial Allocation of Energy-consuming Right and CO2-emission Right Based on Historical Method and ZSG-DEA Method
    LIU Hai-ying, WANG Yu
    2020, 28 (9):  209-220.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.09.021
    Abstract ( 433 )   PDF (1829KB) ( 362 )   Save
    Energy-consuming right trading and CO2-emission right trading are typical market-oriented energy and environment policies,which give full play to the advantagesof efficient allocation of resources in the market.The choice of initial allocation mode of energy-consuming right and CO2-emission right has always been the key and difficult point in the process of establishing market mechanism.Using data from 29 regions of China (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan,Chongqing's data is incorporated into Sichuan) in 2016 and discussing the initial allocation of energy-consuming right and CO2-emission right at the provincial level,it introduces the ZSG-DEA model that considers the initial allocation of energy-consuming right and CO2-emission right,and compares the applicability of the historical method and the ZSG-DEA method from the perspective of fairness and efficiency. Under the hypothesis of market efficiency, the market trading model is applied to further test the impact of different initial allocation modes on the trading behavior of each region. Research indicates: Firstly, although the ZSG-DEA method improves the fairness of the initial allocation, it increases the technical efficiency level of backward regions at the expense of the frontier technical efficiency level. Secondly, the perfect market mechanism is the carrier of the ZSG-DEA method. When the market is effective, the regions with higher production technology can obtain additional income by selling surplus energy-consuming right and CO2-emission right, which is conducive to promoting green technology innovation. When the market mechanism is not perfect, the ZSG-DEA method may inhibit technological progress and even destroy productivity, while the historical method can preserve existing productivity at least in the short term.Finally, under the hypothesis of market efficiency,the historical method is likely to lead to regionswith high energy consumption and high emissions to obtain more energy-consuming right and CO2-emission right.The phenomenon of "whipping fast cattle" is not conducive to the positive promotion of technological progress. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that in theprimarystage of energy-consuming right trading and CO2-emission right trading market, since the market mechanism is not perfect, it is not appropriate to adopt the ZSG-DEA method for initial allocation to avoid the phenomenon of technological regression and productivity degradation caused by poor trading. However, with the continuous improvement of marketization, the initial allocation mode can gradually change from historical method to ZSG-DEA method, improve the fairness of the initial allocation of energy-consuming right trading and CO2-emission right, and gradually eliminate the phenomenon of "whipping fast cattle" caused by historical method.
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    Food Fraud Tripartite Evolutionary Game in Social Co-regulation
    CHANG Le, LIU Chang-yu, YU Tao, SUN Zhen-kai
    2020, 28 (9):  221-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1958
    Abstract ( 484 )   PDF (1989KB) ( 247 )   Save
    According to an analysis of 1,001 food incidents in China, food fraud is the major root cause of food incidents in China. Based on routine activity theory, the article constructs food firms, consumers and inspection institutions tripartite evolutionary game model. The model studies inspection relationship between inspection institutions and food firms, and cooperative relationship between consumers and inspection institutions in the game. Analysis is conducted on evolutionary perspective, and Matlab is used for simulation verification. Results indicate penalty and compensation scales reduce food fraud motivation; if food fraud motivation is small, traditional inspection method effectively deters non-compliance; if consumer participation in co-regulation is based on words of mouth and complains, co-regulation inspection method can't effectively deter non-compliance in evolution. The research conclusion is useful in further exploring co-regulation mechanism design in food fraud prevention.
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