Loading...
主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 November 2019, Volume 27 Issue 11 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Pricing and Incentive Decision of Crowdfunding Projects under Strategic Delay
    BI Gong-bing, YANG Yun-shen, LIANG Liang
    2019, 27 (11):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.001
    Abstract ( 540 )   PDF (1310KB) ( 282 )   Save
    With the dramatic growth of crowdfunding industry which have provided entrepreneurs a new way of financing, more and more issues have been studied to improve the success rates of crowdfunding projects. To motivate more early investors to pledge in the project, entrepreneurs are often encouraged to motivate early investors. Inspired by practical problems, this paper considers the strategic delay behaviors of investors and their influences on the pricing and incentive strategies in crowdfunding projects.
    Strategic delay behaviors make investors spontaneously invest in correspondingly period according to their valuations during the investing process. In addition, some early investors may deliberately delay their investment for free-riding because the risks and the waiting cost are both higher in the early stage of crowdfunding. The free-riding behavior will worsen the performance of projects in early stage and decrease the overall success rate.
    A two-period model is adopted to depict the investing behaviors of investors and compared the Bayesian equilibriums in the sequential model (no strategic delay) with the spontaneous model (with strategic delay), respectively. To depict the crowdfunding process, I1 and I2 are used to denote the investors arriving in two periods and use δ to denote the waiting cost of early investor. Therefore, the pledging probabilities of two investors q1 and q2 are concluded,as well as the success rate S=q1×q2.The strategic behaviors in our model is considered by allowing investors to choose the entry time spontaneously. By comparing the success rates in different scenarios and adjusting the prices pi for different investors, the optimal pricing strategies in many occasions can be concluded.
    Our results show that the waiting cost of early investor induces the strategic delay behaviors. Moreover,the strategic delay behaviors of investors could influence the optimal incentive decisions when entrepreneurs choose to improve success rates with price discrimination.When there exists the constraint of fixed target, if the investors can't strategic delay, the entrepreneur should motivate the early investors and improve the success rate through making up their waiting cost. In contrast, when the investors can strategic delay, investors with high valuations will spontaneously invest in the early period and are willing to take the higher price, therefore the entrepreneur should motivate the late investors instead. When there is no target constraint, the entrepreneur should motivate the early investors for higher success rate and expected profit no matter if the investors strategic delay.
    In conclusion, the managerial guidance is provided for entrepreneurs on improving the projects according to the targets and the behaviors of investors. In addition, the practical value of our conclusions is tested by providing realistic examples and empirical studies, including 575 projects on one of the largest crowdfunding platforms in China. Our limitation and future goals which provide more directions and inspirations for relevant research in the future are also stated.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Option Pricing Under Time-Varying Risk Aversion: An Empirical Study Based on SSE 50ETF Options
    WU Xin-yu, ZHAO Kai, LI Xin-dan, MA Chao-qun
    2019, 27 (11):  11-22.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.002
    Abstract ( 556 )   PDF (1691KB) ( 199 )   Save
    In the past decades, with the rapid development of China's financial markets, more and more derivative products, such as warrants, currency options and covertible bonds have been introduced into the markets. Specially, the SSE 50ETF option, the first stock option in China, was introduced in February 2015. The introduction of the SSE 50ETF options makes the China's equity market more complete. The purpose of this paper is to develop reasonable model for the pricing of the options. It is of great importance for investors and risk managers.
    Traditionally, the pricing of options is based on the classical Black-Scholes (B-S) option pricing model. However, an extensive empirical literature has documented the empirical biases of the B-S option pricing model. Most prominently among these biases, observed market prices for out-of-the-money puts and in-the-money calls are higher than the B-S prices. This stylized fact is known as the "volatility smirk". To modeling the smirk, stochastic volatility (SV) models have been introduced. The SV models are popular in the option pricing literature, which have been proved to be helpful in modeling the smirk.
    However, in the conventional SV option pricing, investors are supposed to have constant risk preferences. Numerous recent studies have found that the market participants' risk preferences exhibit time-varying characteristics. In contrast to conventional SV option pricing with constant risk aversion, this paper concentrates on the issue of option pricing under time-varying risk aversion. Firstly, by extending the conventional (non-affine) SV option pricing model with constant risk aversion (hereafter CRA-SV option pricing model), a SV option pricing model with time-varying risk aversion (hereafter TVRA-SV option pricing model) is developed to price options, and further the effect of time-varying risk aversion on option prices is examined. Secondly, an estimation approach, the continuous particle filter-based maximum likelihood estimation method, is presented for joint estimation of the objective and risk-neutral parameters of the pricing model, using information provided by the underlying asset and options data. Finally, using the actual financial market data on the SSE 50ETF options, empirically the performance of the developed pricing model is investigated. The results show that the TVRA-SV option pricing model leads to substantial improvements in the empirical fit over the conventional CRA-SV option pricing model, and can describe the volatility dynamics of the underlying SSE 50ETF returns more adequately under both the objective and risk-neutral measures. Moreover, the TVRA-SV option pricing model produces much more accurate option prices than the conventional B-S option pricing model and CRA-SV option pricing model.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Indirect Correlation Network between Banks Based on Common Assets
    WANG Chao, HE Jian-min, MA Jing
    2019, 27 (11):  23-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.003
    Abstract ( 343 )   PDF (2314KB) ( 120 )   Save
    Financial market is a complex system, where banks not only connect with each other through direct lending, but also establish indirect correlationvia the investment market.A large number of researches have suggested that network resulted from interbank loans has some common topological properties. As shown in this paper, indirect correlation network between banks based on common assets is also worthy of discussion. The correlation between assets is established through fire sale and portfolios diversification, and then the indirect correlation between banks is constructed according to the portfolios chosen by risk aversion (CRRA) utility function.The influence of banks' investment behavior, endogenous correlation between assets and fire sale of common assets on the extent of indirect correlation between assets are tested respectively.Then the indirect correlation network between banks is set up with consideration of all the factors mentioned above and planar maximally filtered graph is used to filter redundant information. The importance of systemic important banks in the indirect correlation network is demonstrated. The small world phenomenon and scale-free phenomenon are also found by analyzing the indirect correlation network. On one hand, the observation in this paper makes the relationship between banks more clearly. On the other hand, a new perspective is also provided for regulators to promote the stability of banking system.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on the Selection of Equity Incentive Tools for Listed Companies Based on Efficiency Perspective
    LIU Zhong-wen, DUAN Sheng-sen, YU Yi-hao
    2019, 27 (11):  31-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.004
    Abstract ( 328 )   PDF (906KB) ( 125 )   Save
    Stock option and restricted stock are treated as two of the most popular equity incentive tools used by listed companies at home and abroad. A large number of literatures have conducted comparative studies on the incentive effects of the two incentive tools from different perspectives, but there are significant differences in the research conclusions. How to choose equity incentive tools for listed companies with heterogeneous characteristics in terms of scale growth and property rights? Existing literature does not provide effective recommendations.
    The factors that influence the selection of equity incentive tools in listed companies are revealed from the perspective of incentive efficiency, so as to scientifically address the above question. To be specific, from the perspective of incentive efficiency, the data of China's A-share listed companies that issued the equity incentive plan from 2011 to 2016 are employed to explore the influence of heterogeneous factors such as the scale, growth and the nature of property rights on the selection of equity incentive tools. It is found that company scale can significantly affect the efficiency of equity incentive tools, and large listed companies are more suitable to use stock options, while their small counterparties are fitter for restricted shares. Moreover, the higher the growth degree of the company is, the more significant the influence of the above matching relationship on the equity incentive efficiency will be. Compared with restricted stock, state-owned listed companies are suitable to choose stock option as equity incentive tool.
    A mechanism for selecting equity incentive tools of heterogeneous listed companies under the premise of ensuring incentive efficiency is constructed. It provides not only a new perspective and thinking for the existing relevant research, and also direct empirical suggestions for the selection of equity incentive tools for listed companies.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Can Media Buzz Effectively Reduce Stock Price Crash Risk?——Based on the Research of Corporate Transparency
    LIU Wei-qi, LI Jian-ying
    2019, 27 (11):  39-49.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.005
    Abstract ( 366 )   PDF (935KB) ( 111 )   Save
    Internet news integrates advantages of fast, real and massive information, and has become an indispensable supervisory force in the security market. Internet news can dig deep into the hidden inside information of listed companies and avoid the collapse of stock prices caused by the continuous hoarding of bad news. Therefore, the unstructured data associated with news information of the securities are chooses. The data from UQER quantitative trading platform are obtained. The sample period is from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017. The Heatindex and the Daynumber variables are used to measure the media buzz degree of a stock. The risk of stock price collapse is measured by CRASH variable, NCSKEW variable and DUVOL variable. We aim to explore the influence of media buzz degree on the risk of future stock price collapse and the role of corporate transparency's moderating. The empirical analysis shows that the higher media buzz degree represents the lower the risk of stock price collapse. Media buzz degree can suppress significantly the corporate stock price crash risk, specifically in the low transparency firms such as state-owned enterprises, low institutional ownership and low transparency of financial reporting. The findings indicate that we should correctly guide all kinds of financial news reports in the process of securities market supervision system is increasingly perfect and strengthen the supervisory role of news media so that reduce the stock price crash risk and protect the interests of the investors. This research supports the demonstration of effective media governance and makes up for the deficiency of single source on media attention.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on the Underpricing Decomposition of Private Placement: Based on the New Perspective of Two-tiered Stochastic Frontier Model
    XU Hui, ZHOU Xiao-hua
    2019, 27 (11):  50-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.006
    Abstract ( 296 )   PDF (946KB) ( 62 )   Save
    The problem of high underpricingof private placement is becoming more and more serious.In the past, foreign researches mainly focused on the primary market and ignored the mispricing of the secondary market.However, as an emerging economy, China's market environment and institutional background are quite different from that of developed economies, and these differences may lead to the fact that the existing pricing theory of private placement abroad does not apply to the Chinese stock market. So the two-tier stochastic frontier model is introduced to explore the formation mechanism of high underpricing, and a new underpricing decomposition model of the private placement is developed. The underpricing effect of private placement is decompased into discount effect of primary market and premium effect of secondary market. In addition, an empirical test is conducted for A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen that has completed the private placement of new shares. The empirical results are as follows:(1) The offering price and exchanging priceare both overvalued, and there is a price bubble.(2) Both the discount effect and the premium effect have exerted a significant influence on the underpricing of private placement, but the premium effect is the leading factor leading to the high underpricing of private placement. (3)The influence of the premium effect on the high underpricing is more significant in the sub-samples of state-owned enterprises,the full subscription of major shareholders, the bull market and the low information transparency. Our sample includes 2,927 effective observations over the period from 2007 to 2017. Besides, the original samples were screened and processed as follows:Eliminate listed companies in financial industry; For the listed companies with two or more private placement (including), only the data of the first private placement is kept to exclude the possibility of wrong statistical results caused by overlapping study intervals; Excluding the listed companies that entered bankruptcy reorganization in the last year of private placement; Excluding listed companies whose offering price is lower than the net asset per share before private placement.The data of private placement used in this paper are from WindDatabase, while the remaining financial data are from CSMAR and CCER Databases. Above all, based on the local Chinese culture, the underpricing decomposition theory of private placement is developed, and the conclusion is more in line with the reality of Chinese stock market, which provides a new perspective and method for the follow-up study of private placement.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    How does Financial Agglomeration Affect Green Development Efficiency? Empirical Analysis of SPDM and PTR Models Considering Spatio-temporal Double Fixation
    YUAN Hua-xi, LIU Yao-bin, FENG Yi-dai
    2019, 27 (11):  61-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.007
    Abstract ( 529 )   PDF (1934KB) ( 300 )   Save
    The improvement of the impact of financial aggregation on green development efficiency is increasingly prominent from the aspects of capital support, resource allocation efficiency and technological innovation. However, the intensity, scope and pattern of its spatial effect remain to be further investigated. On the basis of space distance attenuation hypothesis and intermediate mechanism hypothesis, with panel data of 272 cities in China from 2003-2014, spatial panel durbin model (SPDM) and panel threshold regression (PTR) are used to explore the spatial spillover effects and its attenuation boundary of the impact of financial aggregation on green development efficiency, and then discuss the intermediate mechanism which leads to a nonlinear relationship between the two. Our empirical results show that:(i) There exists significant spatial dependence in the impact of financial agglomeration on green development efficiency, which shows evident spatial attenuation characteristics. The dense area of negative space spillover is within 300 km, whereas the dense area of positive space spillover is within 400-600 km. (ii) The impact of financial agglomeration on green development efficiency shows the characteristic of "gradient enhancement" under the regulating mechanism of financial aggregation, city size and level of opening-up, while shows the characteristic of "first decrease and then increase" under the constraint of economic development level. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that this promotion is very limited at the present stage.This study not only helps to fully grasp the relationship between financial agglomeration and green development efficiency, but more importantly, provides empirical evidence for government departments to develop regional economic development policies and promote regional green development efficiency.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Regional Differences of Energy Eco-efficiency in Manufacturing Industry under Consideration of Undesirable Outputs Based on the SBM-Tobit Two-stage Model
    LI Gen, LIU Jia-guo, LI Tian-qi
    2019, 27 (11):  76-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.008
    Abstract ( 301 )   PDF (1430KB) ( 111 )   Save
    At present, the global manufacturing competition pattern is facing restructuring. In order to enhance international competitiveness in China's manufacturing industry, further improving energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry is needed. Considering undesirable outputs in the production process, the emissions of waste gas, waste water and solid waste from manufacturing industry are included in the output variables. SBM model is used to calculate energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2016 in the paper. Then the regional differences of energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry are analyzed. Finally Tobit model is applied to analyze the influencing factors of energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry. The results show that the average annual efficiency is 0.44, which is in the middle and low level of development. The differences between provinces are remarkable. On the whole, energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry is on the rise. The low pure technical efficiency is the main reason that restricts energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry. In the statistical period, the comprehensive efficiency value of the eastern region is obviously higher than that of the central and western regions. The main reason is that the pure technical efficiency of the eastern region is obviously higher than that of the central and western regions. Management and technology level of manufacturing industry in the eastern region is significantly superior to the midwest of China. But the scale efficiency of the eastern region is significantly lower than the midwest. According to Wuli-Shili-Renli system methodology, seven influencing factors, such as economic development level, R&D investment, energy consumption structure and so on are selected, and the model of influencing factors of energy eco-efficiency in manufacturing industry is constructed. The results show that economic development level has the most significant effects on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country and the regions. The regression coefficients are 0.079,0.123,0.172 and 0.104 respectively. Apart from economic development level, other influencing factors have different effects on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country and the regions. The effect of R&D investment on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country and the eastern region is positive,but it is negative to the midwest. The effect of energy consumption structure on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country and the eastern region is negative but positive to the central region. The effect of property right structure on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country, the eastern and central regions is positive. The effect of openness to the outside world on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country is negative but positive to the eastern region. The effect of labor quality on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country is positive. The effect of environmental regulation on manufacturing energy eco-efficiency in the whole country and the midwest is negative. In order to improve the overall energy eco-efficiency in China's manufacturing industry and reduce regional differences, in general, the paper puts forward some suggestions such as optimizing industrial structure in manufacturing industry, implementing innovation-driven strategies, increasing the proportion of clean energy consumption, improving corporate governance of state-owned enterprises, reducing the proportion of exports of energy-intensive products, training high-quality manufacturing personnel and improving environmental governance mechanisms. Each region should adopt the applicable countermeasures according to the results of comprehensive efficiency decomposition and the actual regression results of the influencing factors on energy eco-efficiency.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Three-party Evolutionary Game of Cluster Enterprises Innovation Cooperation based on Government Supervision and Implicit Contract
    HAN Ying, CHEN Guo-hong
    2019, 27 (11):  88-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.009
    Abstract ( 357 )   PDF (1570KB) ( 160 )   Save
    In the perfection of market economy system in China, enterprise opportunism behavior in cooperation is relatively common due to lack of enough good faith.However, the enterprises within the industry cluster have been paid much attention because of the less opportunism behavior and innovation cooperation advantages.The reason is that in the development of mature industrial clusters, cluster enterprises often affected by the cluster informal contract in addition to the formal contract by market mechanism. Consider the formal regulation and informal contract of cluster innovation cooperation between enterprises, the evolutionary game method is used to establish the tripartite asymmetric game model among government, informal organization and cluster enterprises, to analyze the evolutionary stable strategy of the three parties, and numerical simulation analysis is used for further validation research. The results show that, both the government's formal regulation and the informal cluster contractwill be able to produce good constraints to cluster enterprise cooperative innovation.Specially, government formal regulation has the more intensive constraint than the informal contract and plays an important role in cluster enterprise cooperation at the beginning of the cluster development.However, the effect of informal contract is more lasting and steady. Therefore, the cluster government should encourage the formal constraint and implicit contracts at the same time for enterprises innovation cooperation. In addition, the government should also guide the construction of the relevant industry association, pay attention to the maintenance and development the cluster informal contract. Through studying the behavior of cluster enterprise innovation cooperation process, this paper can help to learn more about the supervision and constraint mechanism of industrial cluster, promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial cluster, guide the innovation cooperation of cluster enterprise,cultivate industrial cluster with strong innovation and enhance the core competitiveness of the industry development in China.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Evolutionary Game of Government Regulation and Production of Manufacturer in the Angle of Low Carbon
    LIU Chang-yu, XIA Tong-shui, YU Tao
    2019, 27 (11):  96-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.010
    Abstract ( 411 )   PDF (1552KB) ( 187 )   Save
    The regulation policies formulated by the government play key roles when manufacturers select production strategies. From the angle of low carbon, parameters such as government carbon tax coefficient, subsidy coefficient, production costs of low carbon products are introduced, under three models including mixed policies of tax and subsidy, single tax policy, and single subsidy policy. The evolutionary game model of decision making behavior of governments and manufacturers is established, conditions on which governments' policies and manufacturers' policies achieve a balance under different regulation policies are compared and analyzed. The factors affecting decision making of governments and manufacturers are studied.
    The study result shows that when low carbon products produced by manufacturers are in the same proportion, if the government implements mixed strategy rather than single tax strategy or single subsidy policy, it will be more effective for increasing production proportion of manufacturers. The factors that influence government and manufacturer decision-making are closely related to government expenditure cost, tax coefficient, subsidy coefficient, manufacturer's product income and carbon emissions.
    Finally, based on the perspective of government regulation, the measures to increase the proportion of manufacturers producing low-carbon products are given. The research conclusion can not only provide scientific theoretical basis to the formulation of government tax policies, but also give support to relevant management decision making of manufacturers.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Cold Chain Logistics Distribution Path Optimization Based on Hybrid Ant Colony Algorithm
    FANG Wen-ting, AI Shi-zhong, WANG Qing, FAN Jun-bo
    2019, 27 (11):  107-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.011
    Abstract ( 526 )   PDF (1091KB) ( 333 )   Save
    With the development of society, consumer demand for fresh green food is increasing.In order to meet market demand and improve their competitiveness, cold chain logistics enterprises constantly expand the number of vehicles in the transportation process, however, their operating costs also increases.For the development of modern cold chain logistics enterprises,high costs have become the biggest resistance to their development. Meanwhile, with the implementation of the concept of green logistics in China,enterprises will simultaneously face the dual pressures of economy and environment.In response to this problem, this paper intends to find a distribution strategy for cold chain logistics enterprises,so that enterprises can achieve a win-win situation of economy and environment. Therefore,based on the concept of green logistics, energy conservation and emission reduction are converted into green cost,and a mathematical model is established with fixed cost, green cost,refrigeration cost, cargo damage cost and soft time window penalty cost, and the minimum total costs as the research goal. The vehicle routing problem (VRP) is an NP-hard problem and cannot be solved by an precise algorithm. In this paper,a hybrid ant colony algorithm is proposed to solve the vehicle path model of cold chain logistics.Aiming at the problem of slow convergence due to insufficient pheromone in the initial stage of ant colony algorithm, the A* algorithm is used to find the optimal solution, and initial pheromone of the corresponding path is assigned the value λτc,(λ>1). The initial pheromone of other paths is assigned the value τc.The purpose of shortening the convergence time of the ant colony algorithm and reducing the convergence time is achieved.At the same time,heuristic factors and transfer probability are modified according to the research content in this paper to make the mixed ant colony algorithm more suitable the problem to be studied in this paper. The data provided by a cold chain logistics company in Xi'an are used to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The results show that the model and algorithm of this paper can provide an effective distribution strategy for cold chain logistics enterprises, this strategy can reduce costs for logistics com-panies and facilitate business development. Furthermore, to verify the validity of the algorithm, after the algorithm comparison, the ant colony algorithm that initializes the pheromone can effectively reduce the convergence time.The hybrid ant colony algorithm can effectively reduce the distribution cost of the enterprise compared with the basic ant colony algorithm and the A* algorithm. In summary, the model and algorithm of this paper can provide method support for logistics enterprise's distribution activity optimization.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Product Service Supply Chain Network Equilibrium Model with Service Flow
    PENG Yong-tao, LUO Jian-qiang, LI Ya-ya
    2019, 27 (11):  116-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.012
    Abstract ( 392 )   PDF (1327KB) ( 146 )   Save
    Service-oriented manufacturing, as a new advanced manufacturing model formed by the integration of manufacturing activities and service activities, is the mainstream direction of manufacturing transformation and upgrading. On account of service embedding and multi-agent participation, traditional supply chain operation mode is difficult to adapt to the requirements of service-oriented manufacturing, and it is urgent to reconstruct the supply chain network for service-oriented manufacturing. For the service-oriented manufacturing model of product and after-sales service integration, a product service supply chain network including manufacturers, sales service integrators and customers is constructed, and the logistics, service flow and information flow in the network are fully analyzed. There is a problem of equilibrium of interests among the various entities in the new product service supply chain network. Therefore, variation inequalities are used to describe the optimal operation behavior of manufacturers, sales service integrators and demand market and the conditions for achieving equilibrium. Finally, the numerical examples are simulated by the modified projection algorithm, and the equilibrium product flow and value flow in the product service supply chain network are obtained, as well as the equilibrium product price and service price. The results show that product service supply chain network is more complex and diversified than the traditional supply chain operation, which is manifested in the intimate combination of service and logistics, network node interaction and cross-level communication; the level of after-sales service provided by the after-sales service system directly affects the demand for products in the supply chain, while the sales volume of the products provided by the former market constitutes the potential demand for after-sales service in the aftermarket; customers' demand for services mainly comes from sales service integrators, some of which are provided by manufacturers. However, most of the services provided by manufacturers are core and professional services, and the service level is high, which is irreplaceable by sales service integrators.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Inventory Decisions for Perishable Emergency Materials under Strategies of Return and Urgent Supply
    GUO Ying, MENG Qing-chun, RONG Xiao-xia
    2019, 27 (11):  127-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.013
    Abstract ( 342 )   PDF (3178KB) ( 130 )   Save
    Due to difficulties in accurately predicting not only the timing but also and magnitude of disasters, which leads to the serious expiration and shortage problems that exist in perishable emergency materials, the strategies of return near shelf life and urgent supply are introduced into the perishable inventory system to reduce the expiration and shortage losses. Referring the classical newsboy inventory problem, two stochastic models for return and urgent supply strategies with uncertainties in demand time and demand quantity are constructed and verified in this paper. In our models, the opportunity losses are considered, and the performances of both strategies in reduced risks and added values are analyzed. In order to describe the opportunity losses accurately, the unit cost is adopted per unit time. With further efforts to measure the performances consisting of reduced risk and added values, the likelihoods of expiration and shortage as risks and differences of opportunity losses as strategies' values are calculated. The analytical outcomes indicate that the strategies of return near shelf life and urgent supply are not always favorable, the implementations of these two strategies should satisfy certain conditions. Thus, the sufficient advantage conditions for both strategiesare given in this paper, in addition, a standard furtherly to balance the reduced risks and added values is also set in our study helping decision-makerselect better inventory policies. For an intuitive perspective, the parameters in our perishable emergency inventory system are estimated by collecting real disaster data online and relevant literatures, and some numerical examples are computed to presented sensitivities of some key parameters and impacts of different distributed functions. From the numerical results, it is concluded that the predefined return time is more robust in return model than return-supply model and the added values does not always increase with the increase of return time; distributed functions of demand time and demand quantity have obvious effects on added values; the effects of uncertainties degree are not uniform and monotonic. The paper makes a preliminary exploration for return and urgent supply strategies in perishable inventory system, which may drive more future works for sustainable perishable inventory networks.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Brand Suppliers' O2O Channel Selection and Decision Optimization Considering the Impact of Customer Returns
    FAN Dan-dan, XU Qi, CHENG Fang-zheng
    2019, 27 (11):  138-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.014
    Abstract ( 353 )   PDF (2480KB) ( 351 )   Save
    With the rapid development of the Internet, more and more consumers enjoy the convenience of online shopping. But the high return rate is becoming a big problem for the online sales of brand suppliers. One of the biggest advantages of O2O channel is to provide easy offline experience, return and other services, which, to a certain extent, avoid blind and impulse buying behavior of customers and reduce the possibility of online shopping returns. Based on this background, two types of typical brand suppliers are considered:a single network channel brand supplier and a "network + entity" dual-channel brand supplier, who respectively opens O2O channels, thus corresponding to four channel modes, i.e., a single network channel, a "network + O2O" channel, a "network + entity" dual-channel and a "network + O2O + entity" three channels. The optimal pricing strategies of the brand supplier are studied in these four modes, respectively. The impact of the return rate of the network channel on the optimal pricing and profit of the brand supplier is discussed. Further, by respectively comparing the optimal profits between a single network channel and a "network + O2O" channel, and between a "network + entity" dual-channel and a "network + O2O + entity" three channels, the conditions for the above two types of brand suppliers are analyzed to open an O2O channel. Results show that a higher return rate of the network channel will result in higher network channel pricing and lower profit of the brand supplier. Regardless of whether or not the O2O channel can reduce the return rate, the brand supplier can introduce O2O channels under different conditions.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Operational and Coordination Strategies of Supply Chain With A Loss-averse Retailer under 3PL Firm Financing Service
    HUANG Shuai, FAN Zhi-ping
    2019, 27 (11):  149-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.015
    Abstract ( 385 )   PDF (1277KB) ( 141 )   Save
    When a retailer confronts with the fund shortage problem, the retailer often uses supply chain financing. As an innovative mode of supply chain financing, third part logistics (3PL) firm financing service has been practiced over the recent years. Moreover, the capital-constrained retailer often has loss aversion behavior because of the demand uncertainty. Therefore, it is worth to study the operational and coordination strategies of supply chain with a loss-averse retailer under 3PL firm financing service.
    In this paper, it is assumed that the supply chain comprises a 3PL firm and a capital-constrained retailer who is loss aversion. a two-stage Stackelberg game between the 3PL firm (Stackelberg leader) and the retailer (Stackelberg follower) is considered. The 3PL firm offers transportation service and financing service to the capital-constrained retailer. Furthermore, the Stackelberg games are analyzed and obtain the 3PL's optimal interest rate and the retailer's optimal ordering quantity under the decentralized situation and the optimal ordering quantity for the supply chain under the centralized situation, are obtained respectively. Comparing the retailer's optimal ordering quantity between the decentralized situation and the centralized situation, a transfer payment contract is designed that may realize the supply chain coordination under 3PL firm financing service. Finally, some numerical studies are conducted to show the impacts of the retailer's initial capital on the retailer's profit, the 3PL's profit and the profit of the entire supply chain, and to analyze the impacts of transfer payment amount on the 3PL's profit and the retailer's profit.
    Some important conclusions are obtained through the theoretical analysis. First, when the retailer's initial capital is more than the certain threshold, the optimal ordering quantity of the loss-averse retailer under 3PL firm financing service is more than that of a well-funded retailer. Second, when the retailer's initial capital changes within certain range, 3PL firm financing service can make the 3PL firm and the loss-averse retailer both obtain Pareto improvements, but the 3PL firm financing service does not coordinate the supply chain. Third, when the transfer payment contract between the 3PL firm and the loss-averse retailer meets a certain condition, the capital-constrained supply chain can obtain the whole coordination.
    Two useful managerial implications are obtained based on our study. On the one hand, the 3PL firm offers financing service to the capital-constrained retailer, which can not only increase the ordering quantity and the retailer's profit, but also increase the profit of the whole supply chain through a suitable interest rate. That is to say, the 3PL firm financing service becomes a new incentive mode to improve the supply chain's performance effectively. On the other hand, 3PL firm financing service can improve his profit and the competitive marketplace. If the 3PL firm cooperates with the retailer, they can jointly determine a suitable transfer payment contract, which can realize a win-win situation for all the supply chain members.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Supply Chain Members' Preferences over Decision Sequence with Information Asymmetry
    JIN Yan-nan, TIAN Lin
    2019, 27 (11):  158-165.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.016
    Abstract ( 435 )   PDF (930KB) ( 192 )   Save
    Supply chain members usually have asymmetric demand information. In this paper, the supply chain members' preferences over decision sequence with demand information asymmetry are studied in a signaling game. The supply chain consists of two members and each of them sets its profit margin to maximize its own profit. Three decision sequences are studied:the supply chain member with demand forecast information moves first in which case the second mover can infer the market demand information from the first mover's decision; the member with less information moves first; and both members move simultaneously. It is shown that the member with demand forecast information will prefer to be the first mover if the information accuracy is low, but not if the information accuracy is high. However, the member without demand forecast information will always prefer to be the first mover. Further, the whole supply chain prefers the member with demand forecast information to be the first mover when the forecast is not very accurate, but not when the forecast is very accurate. Some results are counterintuitive, depending on the tradeoff between signaling cost, first-mover advantage, and the second mover's strategic response. Our detailed analysis of the signaling game serves as a reference for researchers who are interested in the information asymmetry issues in supply chains. And our discussion about different decision sequences inspires researchers to consider operational problems with different supply chain power structures.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Demand Feature Pattern Mining Method for Short Life Cycle Experiential Product by Integrating Content Analysis and Association Analysis
    TANG Zhong-jun, CUI Jun-fu, TANG Xiao-wen, ZHU Hui-ke
    2019, 27 (11):  166-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.017
    Abstract ( 403 )   PDF (2358KB) ( 88 )   Save
    Specific product demand patterns fail to shed light on market characteristics of such a kind of products. For short life cycle experiential products, a lack of sales data and immense demand volatility make it necessary to have a thorough understanding of demand feature of the kind of products in a holistic way. However, the demand feature is difficult to identify. To address the issue, it is imperative to propose a method for mining demand feature patterns suitable for short life cycle experiential products.
    Immense demand volatility of a kind of products make it difficult to mine such a kind of products' relationships between product attributes and its total sales volume. After segregating a kind of products into several groups according to their total sales volume, fluctuation of each group's total sales volume becomes relatively small, and thus demand feature of each group with a narrow sales volume interval may be more regular, so it may be easy to mine the demand feature of each group. Based on this, a product demand feature pattern mining method is proposed for short life cycle experiential products by grouping such a kind of products according to their total sales volume.
    The method takes updated product introduction set and sales volume of existing short life cycle experiential products as source information. By integrating content analysis and association analysis, the method consists of two processes:(1) product attribute mining process through content analysis,(2) product attribute pattern mining process for each group through association analysis. Through content analysis at the first process, product attribute database is established; relatively comprehensive product attributes are obtained; product attribute table is set up. At the second process, through product attribute association analysis and through visual construction of demand feature resulted from the analysis, product attribute relationship pattern which is possessed by product set grouped in the high sales volume interval but not in the middle and low sales volume interval is mined out, and thus a dynamic demand feature pattern reflecting market demand trend is obtained.
    On the basis of data of 65 crime movies and 190 romantic movies shown in China from 2013 to 2016, the demand feature pattern mining method is verified, and demand feature pattern of crime movies and that of romantic movies in recent years are obtained. The patterns may be used to guide creation of these two types of movies.
    The demand feature pattern mining method is not only suitable for short life cycle products, but also suitable for long life cycle products with product introduction, because the method only uses product introduction and sales volume as source information. The method can be applied before products get developed, and thus demand feature pattern resulted from the method may be used to guide design of new products and may help to reduce investment risks of new products.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    The Herding Effect of Consumption Decision of Experience Products and Mechanism Explanation -An Empirical Interpretation of Consumer Behavior in Film Industry
    HAO Xiao-ling, CHEN Xiao-meng
    2019, 27 (11):  176-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.018
    Abstract ( 469 )   PDF (1088KB) ( 186 )   Save
    Consumers shopping experiential products in the Internet environment rely more on online information. It is of practical significance to understand consumer's decision-making psychology under the influence of social media so as to study consumer decision making behavior of experiential products. In this paper, the film industry is taken as an example to explore the experience of the herding effect of the product and to explain its internal mechanism.
    Aiming at two kinds of phenomena——the movie industry's box office deviation and the consumer follow the trends, the herding effect of the experience products is explored, and its intrinsic mechanism is explained. In this paper, the film's box office data are gotten from Entgroup.com and basic information as well as review data are gotten from Douban.com, and consumer herd behavior and its impact on the film box office are analyzed. First, by examining the impact of the first week's average box office on the box office after the first week of the film, the existence of the herding effect is tested. Then the generation mechanism of herding effect, and differentiates between rational and non-rational herding are studied, and the moderating effect of film characteristics on herding effect is tested. Finally, the mechanism of rational herding and the influence of the surprises on the film box office decline are explained, which shows the process of rational herding realized by adjusting the surprise.
    It is found that:under the control of endogeneity such as quality, herding consumers still exist; the product quality characteristics plays a role of regulating the herding effect, forming a rational follow; the process that consumer achieve the rational process can be interpreted with surprise model. The research conclusion has practical significance for the macro policy formulation of the film industry and reasonable marketing promotion of experience products.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Study on the Estimation of ICT Service Industry Capital Stock and It's Output Elasticity
    CHENG Ming-wang, ZHANG Jia-ping
    2019, 27 (11):  189-199.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.019
    Abstract ( 347 )   PDF (999KB) ( 66 )   Save
    Since the 21st century,the development of ICT has deeply influenced China's economy and society. To test whether there is a "productivity paradox" for China's ICT capital, the PIM is used to estimate the capital stock and output elasticity of ICT service industry and non-ICT service industry at boththe national and regional levels from 2003 to 2016. The results show that China's ICT service industry existed obvious "underinvestment",but later eased since 2012. The capital stock of ICT service industry showed unbalanced distribution among different regions,but the gap between the capital stock of ICT service industry among different regions tended to converge. Investment in ICT service industry can significantly promote economic growth, and the output elasticity for ICT service capital was between 0.1605 and 0.1705. From the perspective of time trend,the impact of ICT service industry capital on economic growth was continuously enhanced during the investigation period. From the perspective of regional differences, the output elasticity of ICT service industry capital decreasedfrom the east, middle and west in sequence. It is further confirmed that there is no "productivity paradox" for China's ICTaradox
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    A Research of the Optimal Contract Types of Innovative Customers Based on Inequity Aversion or Status Seeking
    ZHANG De-peng, ZHANG Feng-hua
    2019, 27 (11):  200-210.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.020
    Abstract ( 373 )   PDF (1283KB) ( 107 )   Save
    In today's rapidly changing and highly competitive business environment, it becomes more and more important for firms promoting product and service by gaining and using external knowledge from customers. The customers' participation in product and service innovation is increasingly emphasized both in theory and practice. Therefore, it is necessary to highlight the perception of equity in customer participation (CP) process and develop incentive measures specifically applied to this special group.However, most of the existing literatures research CP incentive measures in equilibrium condition where the degree of jealous equity preference is equal to the degree of sympathetic equity preference. In order to get close to reality, we should further consider the general situation andintroduce both inequity aversion theory and status seeking theory into this paper.
    Based on the above discussion, an incentive model of customer participation is built based on equity preference theory (inequity aversion and status seeking), relative performance evaluation and participation cost element from the perspective of innovative customers' participation in team innovation activities. First of all, the effect of the equity preference, incentive intensity and participation cost element on the incentive effect in all kinds of compensation contracts (independent compensation contract, relative performance contract, team compensation contract and perfect team compensation contract) is explored through the model solution and analysis. Secondly, the functional relationship among the risk cost, expected loss from inequity and incentive effect, and obtains the range of optimal incentive intensity andoptimal contract types for innovative customers is discovered. Thirdly, to examine the proposed models, the survey data of 265 users involved in a large software frim's product enhancement project in Guangzhou from March 1st to August 31st in 2017 are collected, which are adopted to carry on the analysis by using Mathematica. Finally, the corresponding management recommendations are put forward according to the research findings.
    The results show that:(1) Under the same compensation contract, if innovative customers pay more attention to the input of their effort costs, the more negative effect of the contract will be caused. (2) For innovative customers with a low degree of equity preference, frims can adopt relative performance contracts, such as competitive contracts; (3) For innovative customers with a high degree of equity preference, when their risk aversion degree is high, team compensation contracts can be adopted, and perfect team compensation contract can be adopted when their risk aversion degree is low.
    The main innovation points of this paper include-firstly, introduce both inequity aversion and status seeking into the design of CP incentives mechanism can not only further research the influence of equity preference on the optimal contract type of innovative customers and deepen the cognition of innovative customer incentive mechanism theoretically, but also provide the theoretical guidance which has more extensively applicable scope for firms to optimize innovative customer management.Secondly, it can further describe the influence of the participation cost of innovative customers on the incentive mechanism and enrich the connotation of innovative customer incentive theory that consider the actual situation of CP and introduce participation cost element into the model.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics
    Research on Smart Decision-Making Method for Upper Gastrointestinal Diseases Based on Electronic Gastroscopic Video
    LI Ling, DING Shuai, LI Xiao-jian, YANG Shan-lin
    2019, 27 (11):  211-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.11.021
    Abstract ( 424 )   PDF (2031KB) ( 129 )   Save
    With the acceleration of urbanization, industrialization and aging, upper gastrointestinal cancer has become one of the malignant tumors threatening the whole world.Disease screening using electronic gastroscope can detect potentially invasive, early stage, and precancerous patients in advance. The decision-making method for electronic gastroscopic image analysis based on deep learning is of great significance to improving the diagnostic efficiency and reducing doctors' working burden. However,in the process of decision-making for upper gastrointestinal diseases diagnosis, the existing methods are less involved in lesion detection and fine-grained classification and suffer from high computation time. There is a significant gap with the need of computer-aided decision-making in clinical practice. In addition, the traditional data augmentation strategies used in existing methods further reduce the actual performance of the decision-making methods. Therefore, a smart auxiliary diagnosis framework for upper gastrointestinal diseases based on electronic gastroscopic video is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the Conditional GAN is used to realize the enhancement of the original gastroscopic image, and then the k-Lconv module is designed for reducing computational complexity while improving accuracy of algorithm. Based on the YOLO-tiny algorithm, the upper gastrointestinal lesion detection algorithm Lconv-YOLO is developed. Lastly, the real clinical data from a Grade-Ⅲ Class-A hospital in China is used for test. The experimental results show that compared with other competitive methods, Lconv-YOLO can effectively improve the average accuracy of the upper gastrointestinal disease classification and lesion localization. The method shortens the time for detecting a frame of gastroscopic video on average to 6.73 ms, and the sensitivity and specificity reach 79.39% and 87.94%, respectively. It can meet the real-time high precision computer-aided diagnostic decision-making of video frames during electronic gastroscopy. The application of Lconv-YOLO can assist doctors in real-time diagnosis during gastroscopy and reduce the rate of missed diagnosis and misdiagnosis.
    References | Related Articles | Metrics