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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 December 2019, Volume 27 Issue 12 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    A Fund Ratings Approach Based on EU-E Decision Model and Its Application in China's Fund Ratings
    YANG Ji-ping, SHI Chen-xiao, Daniel CHIEW, Judy QIU, Sirimon TREEPONGKARUNA
    2019, 27 (12):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.001
    Abstract ( 473 )   PDF (1148KB) ( 190 )   Save
    Due to demand and growth in the fund industry, simple fund rating tools as a measure of fund performance are becoming more and more important to assist investors in making capital allocation decisions. Thus, it is essential to develop an appropriate approach to rank funds. Previously, Yang and Qiu developed the expected utility-entropy (EU-E) decision model, which brings together the notion of expected utility and entropy together and can effectively consider the decision maker's subjective preferences and objective uncertainty at each state of nature. In the paper, we investigated an alternative fund rating approach based on EU-E model to mitigate drawbacks of the Morningstar ratings, and the ability of fund ratings based on EU-E model and Morningstar to predict fund performance. The Sharpe index, Jensen α, Fama-French three factors and Carhart four factors α have been used as the performance indices using the panel data regression with fixed effect model and random effect model respectively according to the results of F test and Hausman test. The sample period is selected over February 2011 to June 2016, and 261 of funds in the sample are included. The results show that the fund ratings based on EU-E model when λ takes value of 0.25 and 0.75 have excellent forecasting ability while Morningstar ratings have weak forecasting ability. In particular, the 5-star fund performance based on EU-E model when λ takes 0.25 and 0.75 is better than that of the Morningstar ratings; and the EU-E model can better distinguish the performance of different star funds. Furthermore, the conclusions are also robust to one-, three-, and five-year sub-samples. The established approach can provide an additional way to evaluate fund performance and further assist retail investors to better investment decision making.
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    Equivalent Administrative Charges of the DC Pension Plan under the Heston Model
    LI Fang-chao, ZHANG Cheng-ke, ZHU Huai-nian
    2019, 27 (12):  11-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.002
    Abstract ( 377 )   PDF (1709KB) ( 125 )   Save
    During the periods of DC pensioninvestment and management, pension managers need to charge some administrative charges, which has a significant impact on the terminal wealth of individual pension accounts. At present, there are mainly two ways of charging administrative charges:charge onbalance and charge on flow, and how to get accurate administrative charges is very urgent for the pension investment and management. The Heston model is used to describe the price process of the risky asset in financial markets; and a balance (equivalent administrative charges)in these two charge ways is found. By using stochastic optimal control theory, the explicit solutions of the equivalent administrative charges are given under the cases of CARA utility and CRRA utility, respectively.From the explicit solutions, it is found that the equivalent administrative charges are only related to the risk-free interest rate, the length of the accumulation period and the representative parameters in the way of charge on flow, and the length of the accumulation period have a strong correlation with age. Finally, a numerical example is given to analyze the impact of age on the equivalent administrative charges and the impact of equivalent administrative charges on the process of wealth. The results show that:under the case of CARA utility, the equivalent administrative charges is strictly increasing in age, and under CRRA utility instead; under the case of CARA utility and the CRRA utility, the equivalent administrative charges has both positive and negative effects on the wealth of the pension account.The main conclusions of this paper will improve the research on DC pension investment and management, enrich the research on pension administrative charges, and provide reference for pension managers to make precise investment.
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    Peer Effects in Corporate Investment: Empirical Study Based on Chinese Listed Firms
    LI Jia-ning, ZHONG Tian-li
    2019, 27 (12):  22-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.003
    Abstract ( 384 )   PDF (922KB) ( 158 )   Save
    In a perfect market, corporate investment should be a firm-level idiosyncratic activity, while firms may interact through indirect and direct linkages in reality. Recent studies empirically examine the peer effects of corporate investment using OLS method by linear-in-mean model, and find that firm's investment is positive related to its peers' investment in the same reference group. However, it generates identification problems when using OLS method or an endogenous instrument to estimate peer effects. Several literatures solve the simultaneity problem by using heterogeneous returns of stocks as instrumental variables, but they have neglected the effectiveness of reference groups. Specifically, when industry reference group is used, only a part of peers in the same industry affect the focal firm's investment, and moreover those within-industry and within-region peers have two alternative explanations for peer effects:regional government intervention and industry competition, which lead to an ineffective estimated coefficient of within-industry peer effects. Thus, IV method is used to examine peer effects in corporate investment decisions of Chinese listed firms during 2008 to 2015. To estimate net peer effects of industry peers, within-industry and cross-region firms are chosen as focal firm's non-local peers, and peers' local uncorrelated firms' average investment is used as instrument variables. It estimates that firms increase investment by 29% in response to one standard deviation increase that of their peers. Further investigations show that firstly, focal firm would keep pace with their peers when peers positively invest and would not react when peers negatively investment; secondly, there are social multiplier effects in the investment, which means that the fluctuation of investment at firm level can cause several times changes within the whole reference group through peer effects. This study contributes to extend the understanding of corporate investment, to deepen the existing research on the peer effects of corporate financial decisions, and to help regulators understand that the positive influence of peers' investment could amplify variation in aggregate investment.
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    Comprehensive Evaluation of Input-output Efficiency of Higher Education in China——Based on Window-Malmquist Index Method
    YI Ming, PENG Jia-chao, ZHANG Yao
    2019, 27 (12):  32-42.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.004
    Abstract ( 408 )   PDF (3030KB) ( 120 )   Save
    China's higher education has achieved new breakthroughs in research and education, innovation capabilities and social services, while at the same time we also notice that the traditional planning and allocation of resources under the "211" and "985" engineering models has resulted in asymmetric and unbalanced input and output of higher education. The overall level of Chinese higher education is still low and the capacity for independent innovation and society service function is still weak. Under the background of building world-class universities and first-class disciplines, the resource allocation model based on cooperation and competition requires that China increase the input-output efficiency of higher education.In this paper, the Window-Malmquist index method and spatial clustering analysis method are used to measure and analyze the input-output efficiency of higher education in 31 provinces (cities) in China from 2004 to 2015 and its evolution rules and spatial differences. The results show that:(1) the input-output efficiency of China's higher education shows an effective state of DEA, and technological progress is the main contributor to its improvement. Meanwhile, the existence of "regional chasm" in higher education has led to catch-up effect which lowers the efficiency value; (2) From the view of time evolving, the efficiency of input-output of higher education is generally relatively stable, but the upward trend is not obvious, and there is a possibility of polarization or multi-polarization; (3) in terms of spatial disparity, among the 31 provinces and municipalities, the input-output efficiency in Jiangsu Province is the highest. The input-output efficiency of higher education in eastern coastal areas is characterized by "high" with a prominent higher ratio comparing to other regions (4) from the perspective of spatial agglomeration characteristics, there is a positive spatial relationship among input-output efficiencies in different regions under the influence of technological progress, while catch-up effect reduces the spatial linkage. The main inspirations of this article are as follows:firstly, from the prospective of increasing input-output efficiency of higher education, it is necessary to narrow the regional gap among regions. Secondly, from the prospective of keep stability of higher education input-output efficiency, it is necessary to ensure the stability of higher education input and reform policy. Thirdly, from the prospective of strengthening spatial agglomeration, it is necessary to enhance exchange and cooperation of higher education among provinces and regions.
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    Cooperative Mechanism of “Double Revenue Sharing” in Product Service Supply Chain
    LI Xin, YU Hui
    2019, 27 (12):  43-54.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.005
    Abstract ( 416 )   PDF (2984KB) ( 307 )   Save
    In the context of "Supply-side Structural Reform", the supply side presents a new transition from a single product to "product + service" package. The product service supply chain aims to improve supply quality level and efficiency through mutual cooperation between upstream and downstream. In practical case, when App Store, an on-line application service website, provides application download services for consumers and meets the consumer market demand through a comprehensive solution of "terminal intelligent product + APP download service", which expand and extend the value chain of corporate. However, in 2017, apple closed the WeChat reward function with the dominant position of the system platform, and further charged other social APP reward function 30% service fee. Thus, when the supply chain value creation and income distribution are separated, the conflict between manufacturers and service provider would be inevitable. Based on the realistic background, the importance of the cooperation mechanism is explored for the supply chain operation efficiency, and the mechanism of the "profit sharing" cooperation mechanism to influence the operation decision is proposed. It provides the operational foundation for the cooperation of product service supply chain under the characteristics of diversified organizational structure. The "non-cooperative" product service supply chain model is constructed, and then the "single or double benefit sharing" method is introduced to discuss the influence of cooperation on supply chain decision-making. Finally, the improvement space of supply chain operation efficiency under different cooperation mechanisms is revealed through mathematical deduction and numerical analysis. When the supplier acts as the leader of the supply chain and participates in the Stackelberg game with the manufacturer, the manufacturer and the service provider use the revenue-sharing contract (the benefit-sharing factor as λ) to perform the revenue distribution, and this is defined as the "single revenue sharing" cooperation mechanism. Similarly, "dual revenue sharing" means that supply and manufacturer consider using a revenue-sharing contract (the benefit-sharing factor as λs&m) to enhance operational collaboration, while manufacturing and service provider still use a revenue-sharing contract to distribute income. This article constructs a product service supply chain cooperation model, which describes the diversity of organizational structure characteristics. The key finding is that there is a "upside down" phenomenon between service scale and supply chain efficiency, and "double revenue sharing" cooperation could improve the supply chain efficiency. Suppliers are motivated to develop high wholesale prices to capture product service supply chain profits under the "single revenue sharing" cooperation. Although the supply chain cooperation mechanism could improve the consumer surplus, but there is a phenomenon of "consumer surplus being eroded" in the "single income sharing" mechanism.
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    The Level Coordination for the Ameliorating Items Supply Chain Considering Ordering Coordination Cost and Quantity Discount
    ZHANG Yun-feng, WANG Yong, GONG Ben-gang, DAN Bin
    2019, 27 (12):  55-66.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.006
    Abstract ( 327 )   PDF (1034KB) ( 98 )   Save
    Joint replenishment is a form of replenishment in which more than two enterprises with the same product demand work together to formulate purchasing strategies. Joint replenishment tends to make order quantity multiply, and enjoys the supplier's price discount more easily. so the retailers favor this replenishment mode. The limitations of joint replenishment are that the retailers involved in joint replenishment need to change their original purchasing rhythm and generate additional order coordination costs. Moreover, the order coordination cost of joint replenishment usually increases with the increasing of the retailers in the procuring organization. Clearly, large order coordination costs will undermine the benefits of price discounts strategie.
    The ameliorating items are a special kind of products. During the period of holding, the ameliorating items will cause ameliorating phenomenon, and lead to ameliorating cost which affects the plenishment decision of retailers. Amelioration phenomena do exist in industries such as farming, fisheries, and poultry farming. Fast growing livestock such as ducks, pigs, broiler in poultry farms, hybrid fish in ponds and the culture of vegetables, fruits on farms are some examples. The phenomenon of amelioration is the opposite of deterioration and the modeling of it deserves an in-depth study.
    Considering a two-echelon supply chain of ameliorating items consisted of a single supplier and multiple retailers, the supplier provides quantity discount strategy to attract the retailers to increase order quantity. Each retailer is faced with two replenishment modes:independent replenishment and joint replenishment. If the retailers choose independent replenishment, the quantity of each order would be smaller and the price discount offered by the supplier might not be available. However, in the case of joint replenishment, the retailers will have to share order coordination costs. The function of total profit per unit time of independent replenishment and joint reolenishment for the retailers respectively are established. The optimal order cycle and maximum total profit per unit time under two replenishment mode are obtained. By comparing the maximum total profit per unit time of the two replenishment modes, the condition that the joint replenishment is superior to the independent replenishment is obtained. On this basis, the joint replenishment behavior among the retailers is transformed into a multi-player cooperative game problem. The basic properties of the game are proved, and the profit distribution method based on the core of the game is designed. Finally, a numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the correctness of the proposed model.
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    Study on Structure Selection of Product Competition Supply Chain Based on Individualized Demand
    MENG Jiong, ZHANG Yang, ZENG Bo
    2019, 27 (12):  67-76.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.007
    Abstract ( 378 )   PDF (2852KB) ( 157 )   Save
    At the beginning of the industrial 4.0 revolution, with the deep integration of new information technology and advanced manufacturing technology, manufacturing enterprises can interact positively with leading users in product individualized manufacturing to meet consumers' individualized needs. Due to the deficiencies in operation mode, business process and organizational structure, the traditional supply chain can not effectively support the individualized manufacturing of products, which urgently needs transformation and upgrading. Considering the separation of manufacturing and marketing and the integration of customization in personalized product supply chain, the two operation models are modeled and solved in competitive and non-competitive environments. On the basis of a practical case, the supply chain operation strategy and profit difference between the two operation models by Example simulation are compared and analyzed, and then the research conclusion on the influence of individualized product supply chain upgrading from separation of manufacture and marketing to integration of customization on its operation performance is given. The basic ideas of the study are as follows:First, the basic assumptions of this study are given. Secondly, the game model of individualized product supply chain is constructed and solved under four scenarios:non-competitive environment and manufacturing-marketing separation structure, non-competitive environment and customization integration structure, competitive environment and manufacturing-marketing separation structure, competitive environment and customization integration structure. Finally, a practical example is used to simulate the game equilibrium results. The results show that:Compared with the structure of separation of manufacturing and sales, the individualized product supply chain choices the structure of customization integration is conducive to matching product individualized manufacturing, improving the level of product individualization, improving the market demand of individualized products and increasing the expected revenue of the supply chain.Moderate wholesale price contract incentive can promote product individualized manufacturing, enhance the level of product individualization and market demand, and improve the performance of supply chain and its members when the individualized product supply chain chooses the structure of separation of manufacturing and sales, meanwhile moderation transfer of profits by distributors to increase the wholesale price contract incentive coordination can significantly promote democratic manufacturing and enhance the level of product individualized.Excessive competition will reduce performance of individualized product supply chain,but chooses the structure of customization integration can significantly enhance competitiveness. On the basis of introducing the case of transformation and upgrading of the supply chain of red collar individualized products, simulation and comparative analysis of the game equilibrium results under four scenarios are carried out. The research results enrich the decision-making theory of the competitive supply chain of individualized products, it provides theoretical support and method reference for scholars to study the structure design of individualized product supply chain, and it has important guiding significance for the management practice of the transformation and upgrading of the supply chain of individualized products.
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    The Impact of Manufacturer Production Cost Reduction on Information Sharing Strategy for A Risk-averse Retailer
    XU Ming-hui, YANG Dong-sheng
    2019, 27 (12):  77-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.008
    Abstract ( 433 )   PDF (1954KB) ( 138 )   Save
    With the advance of information technology, it is common for firms in a supply chain to share information. Many large retailers, including Wal-Mart and Target, have started to share sales data with their upstream manufacturers. When a manufacturer receives demand information from a retailer, it may improve its cost reduction planning to make the supply chain more competitive and profitable. However, the retailer may be reluctant to share information for dreading that the manufacturer would abuse the information to gain an advantage in future price bargaining. Despite the popularity of production cost reduction in practice, its impact on incentives for information sharing has rarely been explored in literature. Meanwhile, the existing literature involved information sharing values in supply chains is usually based on the assumption of risk-neutral decision-makers.
    A supply chain with a risk-natural manufacturer and a risk-averse retailer who faces a stochastic price-dependent demand is considered. Before the selling season, the retailer obtains a signal and forecasts demand, while the manufacturer exerts effort to reduce her unit production cost. The following research questions are addressed. When will the retailer be willing to share its demand information with/without production cost reduction? When will the manufacturer invest in production cost reduction? How forecasting accuracy influences the supply chain members' decisions and utilities under different information sharing strategies and cost reduction investment strategies? How do these questions depend on cost reduction efficiency and the retailer's risk attitude?
    To address these questions, a three stage game model is established to study the participants' equilibrium decisions. In the first stage, the retailer decides information sharing strategies before observing demand signal. In the second stage, the manufacturer determines the wholesale price (and cost reduction investment level if it is beneficial for the manufacturer) based on available demand signal. In the third stage, given the wholesale price and cost reduction investment level, the retailer decides the selling price. Based on different information sharing strategies and cost reduction investment strategies (with/without information sharing, with/without cost reduction), four decision-making models are analyzed. Firstly, by solving each model, the impacts of the degree of risk aversion for the retailer on the decisions and utilities of supply chain members are investigated by improving the information forecasting accuracy. The results illustrate that the improvement of the forecasting accuracy benefits the supply chain members under certain conditions. Secondly, by comparing the four models, the impact of the manufacturer's cost reduction investment strategy and the degree of risk aversion for the retailer on information sharing strategies are examined. Our findings show that the manufacturer is always better off with information sharing and/or cost reduction. However, the retailer is better off with information sharing only when the cost reduction policy is adopted and the effectiveness of investment is relatively low. Finally, the equilibrium strategy under certain conditions is obtained. It is found that (no) information sharing and cost reduction is the equilibrium when the cost reduction efficiency is relatively (low) high, which indicates that cost reduction may be a driving factors for information sharing.
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    Impact of “Showrooms” on Demand Allocation, Pricing and Profit in Omni-channel Retailing
    LIU Jin-rong, XU Qi
    2019, 27 (12):  88-99.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.009
    Abstract ( 414 )   PDF (1729KB) ( 137 )   Save
    In recent years, Showrooms, as a new experience business mode, has the advantages of improving the experience effect and reducing the return rate, and has an important impact on the profit of the retailer. In this study, profit models of the retailer before and after setting up Showrooms under the single Online channel and "Online + Store" channel are established on the basis of consumer utility in various channels, and then the impact of Showrooms on pricing, market demand, profit and online return rate with the cases of fixed price and optimal price are analyzed. The results show that:(1) Under single online channel, opening of Showrooms can increase the retailer's total market demand, and increase the total profit under the condition of the showrooms' operation cost is low when we fix the online price; while setting up showrooms can increase the retailer's online price and total demand and total profit under the condition of the showrooms' operation cost is low when we optimize the online price, but the total profit increase more under the pricing strategy of fixed price. (2) Under "Store + Online" dual channel, opening of Showrooms can increase the retailer's total demand and total profit under the condition of the Showrooms' operation cost is low and the online channel's return rate and shopping inconvenient cost is high, and the increase is greatest under the strategy of optimizing the online price only, followed by the strategy of the fixed store price and online price. But when both channel prices are optimized or only store price is optimized, the increase in total profit is not significant. (3) In addition, the final trend of price optimization is the same price on the online and offline line, and "Online+Store+Showrooms" channels will become into "Showrooms+Online or Store" channel, which is a new retail mode is of online and offline interoperability. (4) Opening of Showrooms can reduce the total online return rate and return amount.
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    The Pricing Model of Emergency Supplies under Quantity Flexible Contracts with Dual Purchasing Sources
    HU Zhong-quan, TIAN Jun, FENG Geng-zhong
    2019, 27 (12):  100-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.010
    Abstract ( 410 )   PDF (2003KB) ( 292 )   Save
    In order to respond quickly to sudden disasters, governments should reserve amounts of emergency supplies in advance. However, due to the limitation of funds and the explosive growth of demand for supplies after disasters,the pre-stored supplies is often difficult to meet the actual demand,which brings tremendous pressure to governments' rescue work.In recent years, practice has shown that strengthening cooperation between governments and enterprises,which means that governmentsrely on enterprises to store emergency supplies,is an effective way to improve the level of emergency supplies and ensure supply capacity.
    To establish the cooperative relationship of joint reserve of emergency supplies between governments and enterprises, a government-driving pricing model of emergency supplies under quantity flexible contracts with dual purchasing sources is designed. Considering a spot market,in addition to conventional procurement, a government provides a quantity flexible contract to a supplier, which can establish a cooperative relationship between them. Through quantitative deduction, the optimal decision-making is derivers for both the government and the enterprise in different situations. Meanwhile, further the impact of factors on the optimal decisions of the government and the enterprise and their cost and profit is analyzed, which can provideguidance for the government and enterpriseto establish the cooperative relationship of joint reserve of emergency supplies.Some important conclusions and management implications are summarized as follows.
    (a)The conditions that the supplier participates in the joint reserve of emergency supplies with the government is given.Specifically, when the government has a high probability or high price of flexible procurement,the supplier agrees to establish the cooperative relationship. The probability of flexible procurement is affected by the probability of sudden disasters and the quantity of government's own reserves.
    (b) What's more, the government's optimal pricing strategy with minimizing his expected cost is giver and it is found that the optimal strategy is mainly affected by thespot marketpriceand the probability of flexible procurement. More concretely, with the spot market price increases and the probability of flexible procurement decreases, the optimal pricing will increase.
    (c)Finally, the impact of the probability of sudden disasters, the quantity of government's own reserves and the spot market price on the expected cost of government and the expected profit of supplier are analyzed. In addition, it is also derived that with the probability of sudden disasters and the spot market price increase, the expected cost of government and the expected profit of supplier will all increase. However, the impact of the quantity of the government's own reserves is complicated. Only reasonable quantity of the government's own reserves can encourage the supplier to actively participate in the joint reserve to reduce the government's cost.
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    Evolutionary Dynamics of Food Safety Riskby Driven of Economic Interests
    WANG Ji-ning, ZHANG Yu-hao, WANG Yu-tong, CHEN Ting-qiang
    2019, 27 (12):  113-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.011
    Abstract ( 366 )   PDF (5470KB) ( 113 )   Save
    In recent years, with the expansion of people's consumption scale, the issue of food safety has increasingly become the focus of scholars. As the Economically Motivated Adulteration (EMA) has the characteristics of deliberate, hidden and technical, it has put forward a series of challenges for food safety management in the new era. In this article, to solve the regulatory dilemma shown in the replicator dynamics equation, the spatial model of food regulatory agencies and food enterprises is constructed based on the cellular automata. The results show that, the food enterprises and the grassroots food regulatory agencies have the characteristics of synchronous shock in the selection of strategies. Moreover, when the strategic change intention of food enterprises or the strategic change intention of grassroots food regulatory agencies remains at a low level, the strategies of food enterprises and grassroots food regulatory agencies achieve long-term stability, and its stable state is (strict supervision, compliance production). Finally, based on the perspective of government regulation, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to ensure long-term supervision of regional food safety. This paper's results not only enrich the theory of food safety supervision in China, but also provid ideas and theoretical guidance for long-term local food safety supervision.
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    A Secondary Triage-joint Defense Optimization Model of Subway Security Screening in Special Period
    LI De-long, LIU De-hai
    2019, 27 (12):  127-135.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.012
    Abstract ( 427 )   PDF (4035KB) ( 81 )   Save
    The terrorists have considered the subway station as one of the primary goals of the attacks, because it always has a weak security system and relatively dense. A secondary triage-joint defense optimization model of the subway security screening in special period is put forword, based on optimizing subway security process and building joint-defense system. Results show that, in the special period, with the introduction of ID card information database and fingerprint-face recognition system (FFS), the passengers are diverted to green, orange, red channel to pass the security checks, This method can significantly improve the level of ordinary passengers social welfare. When the accuracy of the original X-ray detection system is lower, the social welfare of this system will be higher; Along with the higher proportion of the passengers diverted to the orange channel and the higher proportion of potential attackers in the orange channel, the social welfare of this system will be larger, and the probability of violent terrorism event will be smaller; When the recognition rate of recorded fugitives is higher, the greater social welfare can be gotten. The positive feedback of the joint-defense system can also stimulate the security department to optimize the identification system, until the system reaches the optimal state with the zero marginal social welfare.
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    Dynamic Evaluation Method Based on TOPSIS and Gray Correlation Degree and Its Application
    WU Fei-mei, LI Mei-juan, XU Lin-ming, BI Jun-li
    2019, 27 (12):  136-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.013
    Abstract ( 423 )   PDF (957KB) ( 138 )   Save
    A dynamic evaluation method is proposed, in order to compare multiple systems at different times. According to the advantage and disadvantage of TOPSIS and gray correlation degree, the integrated closeness is proposed based on Euclidean distance and gray relational grade, it can reflect the trend relationship and situation relationship well between the alternative and the ideal alternative, the alternative and the negative-ideal alternative. The two-dimensional data with time series data is extended to three-dimensional data. Dynamic evaluation method based on TOPSIS and Gray Correlation Degree is put forward. The method takes into account the evaluation index values difference degree and the evaluation index values growth degree and this method can get the evaluation values and ranking results of the evaluation objects at a certain time and the overall evaluation values and sequencing results of the evaluation objects at a period of time. The ecological benefits of circular economy in Chinese east provinces regions in "the 12th Five Year Plan" period were evaluated by using dynamic evaluation method based on TOPSIS and gray correlation degree. The source data of the evaluation indicators come from Chinese statistics yearbook. Such an evaluation, as an instance, shows that the findings of this work are practically effective. The method proposed in this study provides an idea in dealing with dynamic evaluation, helpfully complements the comprehensive evaluation method, and facilitates the researches in related fields.
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    Hybrid Multiple Attribute Decision Making Approach based on Mo-RVIKOR
    PAN Ya-hong, GENG Xiu-li
    2019, 27 (12):  143-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.014
    Abstract ( 359 )   PDF (1209KB) ( 93 )   Save
    Hybrid multiple attribute decision making(MADM) problems have broad applications in the fields of economy, management and social science, etc. The existing methods to support hybrid MADM are more and more common which can process many different types of information such as crisp, interval, fuzzy, hesitant fuzzy. However, hybrid information is often converted into the same form which leads to the loss of information in most of these methods. In addition, only few research concerned the uncertainty caused by random variable. Aiming to avoid any transformation step and take random variable into account, Modular Random VlseKriterijumska Opti-mizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (Mo-RVIKOR) is proposed which can break heterogeneous information into modules and process information in a straightforward way without unifying. Firstly, real numbers and random variable are used by experts to process quantitative evaluation information, probabilistic linguistic term set to process qualitative evaluation information. Secondly, the weights of attribute are determined by the improved deviation maximization method. Finally, Mo-RVIKOR is adopted to rank the alternatives. This method can effectively handle certain or uncertain mixed evaluation information, and a case study of C2B customized service quality assessment of one company is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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    Linguistic Preference Decision-Making Model Based on Consistency Local Adjustment Algorithm and DEA
    JIN Fei-fei, NI Zhi-wei, CHEN Hua-you, ZHU Xu-hui, WU Wen-ying
    2019, 27 (12):  152-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.015
    Abstract ( 342 )   PDF (988KB) ( 90 )   Save
    The linguistic preference relations (LPRs) are useful tool to address situations in which the decision makers (DMs) are more comfortable providing their evaluation information linguistically rather than numerical values. Consistency improvement process and deriving the reliable priority weight vector for alternatives are two significant and challenging issues in decision-making with LPRs. In this paper, a linguistic preference decision-making model is investigated with consistency local adjustment algorithm and data envelopment analysis (DEA). Firstly, the concept of multiplicative consistent LPRs is reviewed. Then, a construction approach of multiplicative consistent LPRs is proposed, and a convergent consistency-improving algorithm for LPRs is designed to transform the unacceptable multiplicative consistent LPRs into the acceptable ones, in which the local adjustment strategy is presented to preserve the DM's original decision-making information as much as possible and use the DM's original information sufficiently. Subsequently, a novel linguistic DEA model is developed to explore the relationship between the relative efficiency scores and the priority weight vector of multiplicative consistent LPRs. Furthermore, the linguistic preference decision-making model is investigated to generate the reliable ranking of the alternatives. Finally, a numerical example of selecting the desirable supplier is provided, and the comparison with existing approaches is performed to validate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed linguistic preference decision-making model.
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    The Analysis of Affect Mechanism of The Brand Competition to New Products Diffusion with Repeat Purchase-Based on The Small-World Network
    WANG Zhan-zhao
    2019, 27 (12):  164-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.016
    Abstract ( 314 )   PDF (2286KB) ( 229 )   Save
    The previous literatures mainly focus on the monopoly market as the context of new product diffusion, but in real world, new product diffusion in the competitive market is more prevalent and complex. In the context of competitive market, consumers need to compare the adoption utility of new product to the competitive products, then to determine which product to adopt. In this process, competitive factors, such as market entry time and switching cost, play a key role. In order to analyze the influence of competitive factors on new product diffusion, a brand competition model of new product diffusion based on the threshold theory is built considering the real situation about repeat purchase, and the hypothesis about "monopoly market" and "one-time purchase" derived from traditional macro diffusion model is relaxed to "competitive market" and "repeat purchase". Then the interaction is simuated between brand competition and new product diffusion in small-world network applying a multi-agent modeling method. The results show that the impact of switching costs on the speed and depth of the new product diffusion has an "criteria area", in which there is no significant interaction between them. There is an negative interaction between entry time and the speed of new product diffusion, but the result is the opposite in the depth. The factor of repeat purchase can amplify or reduce the interaction between switching costs, entry time and new product diffusion. The contribution of this paper is not only to enrich and improve the theory of competitive product diffusion,but also to provide the proposals on promoting the new product diffusion for enterprise.
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    Service Mechanism and Pricing based on Fairness Preference of Customers
    LIU Jian, ZHANG Shuai, ZHAO Hong-kuan, LIU Si-feng
    2019, 27 (12):  175-184.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.017
    Abstract ( 404 )   PDF (943KB) ( 122 )   Save
    Due to the heterogeneity of customers'waiting cost service providers often adopt customer segmentation in queueing. However, the customer segmentation would produce the differernt of waiting time (W2>W1) and service value, which may cause the transfer or switch of customers between different queues in the system, so did affect the revenue, social welfare, and customers' utility. The first exact analysis of a service provider offering two classes of non-preemptive priority service is provided when customer perception of fairness is explicitly modeled. Customers differ in their waiting time cost and service value (R1'>R2') in different queues (regular and priority), but that information of waiting cost (H) is private to each customer. The service provider cannot schedule services so she offers a regular queue and a priority one-with additional charge-to induce customers to self-select into the two queues, in order to maximize revenue. The customers' fairness perception is modeled as a negative utility on the regular customer that's proportional to the waiting time difference between the two queues (α(W2-W1), α represents the fairness preference of regular customer). Analyzing a stylized non-preemptive M/M/1 queue system, important results are derived some of which reaffirms existing research results about the benefit of offering differentiated service and pricing to the service providers.
    In this paper, it is first proposed that service providers should adopt customer segmentation, utilize two queues in the system and charge a concierge fee to obtain more revenue. Through intuitive perception and comparison between two queues, the fairness preference can be further stimulated. That is service providers should establish the service windows of the priority queue and regular queue in relatively close locations to more clearly present the advantages of shorter waiting times in priority services to all customers and to advertise the service experience associated with priority services in order to attract more customers jioning the priority and increase the priority fee used to customer segmentation. Then, service providers are suggested to adopt customer segmentation from the angle of social welfare maximization, which constructed by the revenue and utility of customers. In order to reduce the stimulation of the regular customer's fairness preferences, and minimize the negative psychological utility caused by the fairness, service providers should guarantee e the service windows of the priority queue and the regular queue far from each other. Later, it is found that the service providers should cancel the classification of customer service, and adopt the mechanism to keep one queue (regular customer only or providing customer segmentation but cancelling the priority fee then all the customers will join the priority queue) to get the maximization customers' utility. Finally, the properties of optimal results are producted, analyzed with the existed results in the above three different perspectives, then the extension research is proposed. This research shows important reference value and practical significance for service providers who adopt scientific mechanism of classification service and the corresponding optimal service pricing.
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    An Evaluation Method on Holon Collaborative Demand of A Service-oriented Holonic Manufacturing Network
    HOU Fang
    2019, 27 (12):  185-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.018
    Abstract ( 359 )   PDF (2763KB) ( 81 )   Save
    The concept of "Service-oriented Holonic Manufacturing Network"(SHMN) is put forward as a new business model, which integrates the advantages of Holonic Manufacturing Systems (HMS) and Service-Oriented Architectures(SOA). HMS is a manufacturing system where key elements, such as machines, cells, parts, products, operators and working teams, etc., are modeled as manufacturing holons, Which have both "autonomous" and "cooperative" properties. The cooperative relationship among holons to achieve system reconfiguration and optimization, make HMS a new paradigm with great potential to meet today's agile manufacturing challenges.
    Complicated with cooperation, the SHMN begins to show complex network's characteristics. In this paper, the holon collaborative demand problem of an SHMN based on the complex network theory is analyzed. And an evaluation method is presented considering intuitional normal fuzzy number. Specifically, the traditional SHMN mainly has integrated star networks, chain networks that formed by the manufacturing industry chain extending to both ends, combined networks of production and manufacturing industry chains, etc., and all of above networks are regular networks with full links. As the integration of manufacturing and service deepens, the SHMN evolves with product services bundled with services, multiple services, multi-dimensional services, and full lifecycle services. At the same time, holon collaborative demand of SHMN changes with a certain probability, so it's possible to form a complex SHMN. Further, the holon collaborative can be both synchronous and synergistic. The collaborative demand evaluation problem considering the holon links in SHMN in the synergistic state. According to the stability of similarity measurements of SHMN in the synergistic state is discussed, the evaluation method is designed. Firstly, an evaluation index on the basis of composite and recursive collaboration for holon is constructed. Secondly, the holon collaborative demand using the similarity stability measurements of nodes is studied and the holon's network structure entropy is measured. Thirdly, a two-way feedback mechanism for network is studied. And finally using INFCWA(INFCWAR) operators or INFCWG(INFCWGR) operators for the information aggregation, the potential application value of the method is illustrated by an example. And the illustration takes 247 holons as SHMN. Revised by nodes' stability of similarity measures, it is found holon collaborative demand corrected by COS,SAL,JAC and SOR (the second type) is different from CN and AA (the first type), LHN is similar to the second type, and PC is similar to CN, and PA is different from all above. Assuming the SHMN is stable, methods performances are compared, where the recursive coefficient is 0.6, the evaluation group could draw a conclusion in 10 rounds considering holon collaborative demand, and without considering the negotiation need 40 rounds or more.The method proposed in the paper could not only overcome the limitations of the traditional manufacturing network but also compensates for the SHMN with complex networks' characteristics, to a certain extent.
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    Differential Game Study on Industry-University Synergetic R&D Strategy of Industrial Generic Technology
    MA Yong-hong, LIU Hai-jiao, LIU Qing
    2019, 27 (12):  197-207.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.019
    Abstract ( 343 )   PDF (2069KB) ( 98 )   Save
    This article examines the industrial generic technology collaborative research and development of a single research institution (university, research institute) and a single enterprise that are completely rational and have complete information for the conflict between the cooperation motives and behavioral goals caused by the heterogeneity of innovation resources in universities, research institutes, and enterprises during the collaborative R&D of industrial generic technology. Research institution is mainly responsible for basic research of industrial generic technology and company is mainly responsible for the application and development of industrial generic technology. In order to motivate the enthusiasm of research institutions for research and development, enterprises provide research institutions with a certain percentage of R&D investment subsidies. The Hamilton-Jacoby-Berman equation (HJB equation) is used to investigate the respective behaviors of universities, research institutes and enterprises in three cases:Nash non-cooperative R & D game, Stackelberg master-slave R & D game and cooperative R&D game through constructing the differential game model of industry-general-technology and industry-university-research cooperation research and development. The degree of optimal R&D effort, the optimal R&D income and the total optimal R&D income of both sides are analyzed, the effect mechanism of R&D subsidy on industry-university-research collaborative research and development of industrial generic technology is discussed, and the coordination mechanism among the subjects of industry-general-technology industry-university-research collaborative innovation under the dynamic framework is seeked. Through the comparison of the three game results, the following conclusions are drawn:R&D investment subsidy, as an incentive strategy, can promote the research and development efforts of research institutions, the research and development income of both sides and the total R&D income of both sides. Besides, In the case of cooperative game, the degree of respective R&D effort, respective R&D income and total R&D income of both parties are better than that of non-cooperative case, and there is a threshold value of income distribution coefficientα, which can realize the Pareto improvement of individual income of both sides. Specific content as follows:1) In the case of Nash non-cooperative game and Stackelberg master-slave game, the degree of R&D effort of enterprises does not change. In the case of Stackelberg master-slave game, the degree of R&D effort of research institutions is significantly higher than that of Nash non-cooperative game. The raised level is equal to the coefficient of R&D investment subsidy, which indicates that R&D investment subsidy, as an incentive mechanism, can improve the R&D effort of research institutions. In the case of cooperative game, the degree of R&D effort of enterprises and research institutions is better than that of non-cooperative game. 2) In the case of Stackelberg master-slave game, the R&D income of enterprises and research institutions are better than that of Nash non-cooperative game, that is, when enterprises provide R&D investment subsidies to research institutions, the R&D returns of enterprises and research institutions are improved.3) In the case of cooperative cooperation game, the total R&D revenue of enterprises and research institutions is superior to that of Stackelberg's master-slave game. Under the Stackelberg master-slave game, the total R&D revenue of enterprises and research institutions is better than that of Nash non-cooperative games. In order to coordinate the cooperative R&D behavior of industry generic technology between research institutions and enterprises, the range of income distribution coefficient α is discussed and analyzes the revenue coordination mechanism of industry-university-research collaboration R&D of industrial general technology is analyzed. Finally, the results of theoretical derivation are verified by randomly setting parameters within the assumed condition of the article.
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    Improved Control Charts Based on Maximum Entropy and their Evaluations
    SONG Ming-shun, YANG Ming, FANG Xing-hua
    2019, 27 (12):  208-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.12.020
    Abstract ( 352 )   PDF (1158KB) ( 89 )   Save
    Traditional control charts are mostly estimated on the basic hypothesis that the distribution of quality characteristic parameter follows the normal distribution. However, in real-applications, the normal distribution assumption cannot be satisfied, and this might lead to the bias from the monitoring process. Motivated by the aforementioned the problems, a series of maximum entropy-based approaches are proposed to approving the existed control charts, Shewhart chart and CUSUM chart, from the perspectives of rebuilding and evaluating method designing. Specifically, conforming to the economy criteria, an improved Shewhart control chart based on maximum entropy distribution is constructed analytically. Then a methodology by combining the Markov Chain and maximum entropy distribution is put forward to evaluating the performances of adaptive CUSUM chart. The simulated case in this paper validates that improved Shewhart chart performs much better than its original one, from the value of average run length. And the results from novel method for the CUSUM evaluation are much closer to the realities. Moreover, the improved Shewhart chart is suitable for large shifts monitoring, whereas the adaptive CUSUM chart is proper for small shifts monitoring.
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