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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 October 2019, Volume 27 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Education Premium and Its Gender Heterogeneity in Financial Investment——Empirical Test Based on the Peer-to-Peer Lending Investment
    DING Jie, ZENG Yan, LI Yue-lei, GUO Yang
    2019, 27 (10):  1-11.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.001
    Abstract ( 311 )   PDF (993KB) ( 185 )   Save
    In the mature capital market, the main participants in the market are institutional investors, while in the Chinese capital market, the main investors are individual investors. Therefore, how the characteristics of individual investors affect their investment performance is a problem worth studying in the Chinese context. However, due to the lack of investment data of individual investors in China, relevant research has not been fully developed. By matching up a set of data about investors' personal characteristics and investment outcome in the Peer-to-Peer lending, investment success rate, investment default rate and investment yield rate are used to reflect the performance of Peer-to-Peer lending investment, and the education premium in financial investment of individual investors and the gender heterogeneity of education premium are tested. It is found that there is a gender differences and education premium in Peer-to-Peer lending investment, male dominant on the success rate of investment and investment yields, female dominant on the default risk control. Education premium effect is embodied in three aspects:the education improves the success rate of investment, reduces default rates investments and increases investment yields. A further test showes that there is a gender differences in education premium, education further improved the female's ability of default risk control, further improved the male's ability of grasping on the investment opportunities and obtaining investment yields, which means that the education improved the investment performance at whole, as well as expandes the initial gender differences. These conclusions have implications for understanding the role of education in financial investment and its heterogeneity.
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    Investor Heterogeneous Beliefs, Expect Evolution and Stock Market Liquidity
    YIN Hai-yuan, Zhu Xu
    2019, 27 (10):  12-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.002
    Abstract ( 269 )   PDF (1485KB) ( 127 )   Save
    The paper attempts to explore the internal relationship between heterogeneous beliefs and market liquidity, from the perspective of investor cognition and information asymmetry. Describing the investor's prior's beliefs with cognitive bias and making information asymmetry as the motivation for the renewal of posterior heterogeneous beliefs, investors adjust their beliefs according to the Bayesian learning process by using the information set they currently possess, and generate new posterior beliefs to trigger different decision-making behaviors. It has caused market shocks and changed the liquidity of stocks.
    The relationship between heterogeneous beliefs and liquidity in two-phase transactions is studied. There are n types of investors. Heterogeneous beliefs are defined as different expectations of the intrinsic value of stocks. The current information set owned by the investor can be divided into the real intrinsic value information V* and the noise information εi,t of the stock. All investors will receive the same information about the true intrinsic value of the stock, but investors will judge it according to their own cognitive bias as V.So in fact each type of investor judges the information structure forIi,t=V+εi,t.According to Bayes rule, the posterior belief of investors can be constructed. In addition using Samuelson's Over Lapping Generation Models (OLG) considers the relationship between investor heterogeneous beliefs and stock liquidity in the two-period trading process.
    It is found that the degree of volatility of investor heterogeneous beliefs, investor risk aversion and information asymmetry are negatively correlated with stock market liquidity; while investor size is positively correlated with stock market liquidity. Further, it is assumed that the process of investor expectation evolution is a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Using MATLAB to numerically simulate the multi-period transaction process is verified that the above rules are still valid in the case of investors' expected evolution. The conclusion of this paper extends research scope of behavioral finance and market microstructures, and has certain reference value for investors to optimize decision-making behavior.
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    Credit Risk Evaluation of Small Enterprises Based on Revised ELECTRE III by Theil Index
    CHENG Yan-qiu, XU Zhan-dong
    2019, 27 (10):  22-33.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.003
    Abstract ( 239 )   PDF (1207KB) ( 84 )   Save
    One of the key tasks of credit risk evaluation is to determine the reasonable evaluation model. However, many existing credit risk evaluation models are complete compensatory methods. Those complete compensatory methods have a problem that high scores under certain evaluation indicators can fully compensate low scores under other evaluation indicators. Furthermore, in the credit loans, commercial bank will not grant loans to customer who's the specific indicator is too low and other indicators perform well. To fill in the above gap, a credit risk evaluation model for small enterprises is constructed based on ELECTRE III. This model can avoid the complete compensatory problem.
    First of all, using the net credit score flow of the new loan customer to decide whether this new loan customer loans or not. This method can evaluate the credit risk of the new loan customer and make ELECTRE III has the ability of learning from history loan customers. Secondly, the Theil index can not only reflect income differences, but also break the differences into difference within groups and difference between groups. Then, by using the Theil index, the index weights are determined based on the idea that "the greater the influence on default is, the bigger the weight will be". Finally, the preference thresholds of ELECTRE III are determined based on Theil index within groups. And the indifference thresholds of ELECTRE III are determined based on Theil index of non-default samples;the veto thresholds of ELECTRE III are determined based on Theil index of default samples. The influences of different evaluation index on evaluation result can reflect through those thresholds.Also the subjective determination of three thresholds could be eliminated.
    The constructed model has been verified using the samples of a Chinese national commercial bank. The empirical results show that the key inductors of affecting the credit risk of small enterprises are enterprise's credit extension of the past three years, loan default record of legal representative, the total amount of payment through our bank, and so on. Also, the indicators which have big differences between default and non default customers are found, such as cash ratio, the ratio of net assets to loans in the end of year, the age of the enterprise, and so on.
    In conclusion, this research aims at establishing a credit risk evaluation model for small enterprises based on ELECTRE III and extending a new vision on small enterprises credit risk evaluation theory and models.
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    Informatization Construction, Supply Chain Information Sharing and Firm Performance-Empirical Study Based on Chinese Manufacturing Firms
    WANG Ke, ZHOU Ya-na
    2019, 27 (10):  34-43.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.004
    Abstract ( 260 )   PDF (901KB) ( 135 )   Save
    The breakthrough development of information technology during the last half century set off another wave of technological revolution and announced the coming of the age of information and telecommunication. As countries in the world competing to develop information technology and promoting informatization construction, China has been vigorously promoting the informatization of the national economy and society and made the integration of informatization and industrialization an important national strategy. Does informatization construction really bring better performance to Chinese micro firms? Through which channel informatization construction could help firm achieve better development? An analysis framework of informatization construction-information sharing-firm performance is established and the influence mechanism of informatization construction on firm performance is discussed in this study. It is claimed that firm's informatization construction can bring better firm performance by promoting communication between firms up and down the supply chain. It is shown that investment in information equipment construction and website building of firms can facilitate information sharing between those and their upstream and downstream firms on demand, inventory and production and provide firm performance improvement through sharing those valuable information in an empirical study using a survey data of Chinese manufacturing firms collected by The World Bank. It is indicated that informatization construction make the support of information sharing about firm business and promotion on firm performance more significantly in further analysis of this paper.
    The important effect of informatization construction on enhancing communication, relieving information asymmetry and promoting economic growth are indicated and the importance and necessity of China vigorously supporting and developing information technology and actively advancing the integration of informatization and industrialization are implied from the perspective of micro firms in this study. For firms, informatization is not only a kind of new supervisor mode, production mode or sales mode, on the basis of information transfer, it will also promote benign interaction between firms on supply chain level and provide better access to information, more accurate production and operation decisions and higher value for firms.
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    Coordinated Pricing in the Dual Channel Supply Chain with the Commission Rate of the E-commerce Platform
    ZHANG Shen, MENG Qing-chun, AN Guo-zheng
    2019, 27 (10):  44-55.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.005
    Abstract ( 279 )   PDF (1595KB) ( 179 )   Save
    E-commerce platforms usually charge fees for technical service, marketing and sales promotion from enterprises on them. The proportion of fees as a percentage of sales, that is, the commission rate of e-commerce platforms cannot be neglected in the pricing of enterprises on platforms. In view of this, the coordinated pricing problem of the dual channel supply chain with the commission rate of the e-commerce platform was considered. At first, a centralized pricing model that pursues the maximization of the profit of the supply chain is constructed, and the optimal online and offline channel sales prices are obtained. The prices, sales volume and profit changes under the influence of the commission rate are analyzed, and the decision range of the commission rate is gradually defined. Then, based on the optimal profit of enterprises under decentralized decision, a coordinated pricing scheme based on Shapley Value was designed to determine the optimal wholesale price of the offline channel. Finally, numerical analysis and simulation were carried out by Mathematica 11. This paper is of great significance for explaining the mechanism of the coordinated pricing in the dual channel supply chain and the changing of the related indicators due to the impact of the commission rate and promoting the benign interaction between enterprises and e-commerce platforms.
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    Information Sharing and Incentive Strategy in Supply Chain when Manufacturer Service Affecting Sales under Demand Uncertainty
    GUAN Zi-li, ZHANG Xu-mei, DAN Bin
    2019, 27 (10):  56-65.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.006
    Abstract ( 291 )   PDF (1972KB) ( 216 )   Save
    With the market competition getting fiercer, it's difficult to maintain a competitive advantage by just lowering product price. Thus, more and more manufacturers begin to provide related service with the product to improve product value and enhance brand competitiveness. In this context, high level of the service can improve customer satisfaction and increase product sales. However, there always exists uncertain market risk in the manufacturer's operation. Demand uncertainty affects not only the product pricing but also the service decisions, and thus may reduce the overall profits of the supply chain. Therefore, it's necessary to address the problems of information sharing and incentive strategy in the product service supply chain (PSSC) when the manufacturer supplies both the product and the related service under the uncertain demand environment.
    This paper includes the following four parts. Firstly, a multistage game model of incomplete information is built to analyze the impacts of the retailer's information sharing level, the manufacturer's service efficiency and the consumer's service sensibility on the equilibrium decisions and the value of service. Secondly, the values of information sharing to the PSSC and supply chain members are explored, and two effects of information sharing are revealed, namely the positive service improvement effect and the negative double marginalization effect. Thirdly, the feasible condition of information sharing is analyzed and a two-part compensation contract is proposed to encourage the retailer to share demand information. Finally, the main conclusions are illustrated through numerical examples.
    The result indicates that the demand information sharing by the retailer helps the manufacturer to adjust service level in respond to market fluctuation, and thus effectively enhances the service value of the whole supply chain. However, information sharing is not always beneficial to the PSSC. When the manufacturer's service efficiency or the consumer's service sensitivity is very low, the positive service improvement effect is limited and cannot offset the negative double marginalization effect, therefore the information sharing would result in the loss of supply chain performance. But when the manufacturer's service efficiency or the consumer's service sensitivity is low, the two-part compensation incentive contract can achieve complete information sharing in the PSSC, and the difficulties to implement the contract decrease with the retailer's information accuracy, the manufacturer's service efficiency and the consumer's service sensitivity. In particular, when the manufacturer's service efficiency or the consumer's service sensitivity is high, complete information sharing can improve the retailer's profit and the retailer will share information voluntarily, which creates a "win-win" situation in the supply chain.
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    Game and Coordination Model for Low-carbon Supply Chain with Product Substitution
    LI You-dong, XIA Liang-jie, WANG Feng-zheng
    2019, 27 (10):  66-76.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.007
    Abstract ( 255 )   PDF (4836KB) ( 166 )   Save
    The retail price, carbon emission quality level, consumer environmental awareness(CEA) and sales effort level of products are four major factors which affect consumers' purchasing behavior. Recently, there has been growing research interests in low-carbon supply chain coordination. However, coordination of retail price, carbon emission quality level and sales effort level decisions for substitutable products in a competitive supply chain has not yet been investigated in the literature. A two-level supply chain (a manufacturer and a retailer) is analyzed. In the original state, supply chain sells only one type of ordinary product, but aims to release a new substitutable low-carbon product in addition to the ordinary product. Demand for both products is a function of the retail price as well as products' carbon emissions quality and retailer's sales efforts. The product's carbon emissions quality level is decided by the manufacturer while both retail price and sales effort level are the retailer's decision variable. A carbon emission reduction's collaboration model is constructed by introducing incentive compatibility mechanism. Three decision scenarios are modelled and compared:(1) decentralized decision scenario, (2) integrated decision scenario, and (3) collaborative decision scenario. Closed-form expressions of optimal retail price, sales effort and carbon emission quality level are derived for the first two scenarios, and a mathematical nonlinear programming model is developed for the collaborative decision scenario. It is found that the two categories of substitutable products can lead to a synergic situation where both members take advantage of more sales volume and more profit. Collaboration in launching both product types leads to a more lower prices, increases channel low carbonization degree, and ensures higher profits for both channel members than the decentralized decision making. Although coordinating decisions for substitutable products is a complex decision-making process, the proposed collaboration model is highly sophisticated and beneficial from both economic and environmental aspects and at the same time guarantees Pareto-improvement situation for both channel members. Finally, the results are illustrated through a numerical example.
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    Research on Multi-Channel Competition Strategy Considering Introduction of Self-operated Channel by E-commerce Platform and Online Direct Channel by Manufacturer
    WEN Yue, WANG Yong, DAN Bin, SHI Ming-jun
    2019, 27 (10):  77-89.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.008
    Abstract ( 418 )   PDF (3049KB) ( 236 )   Save
    With the increasing willingness of consumers to shop online, increasing e-commerce platforms not only serve as service providers, matching buyers with sellers, but also sell competing products through their own online platform. At the same time, in order to reduce the disadvantaged position and dependence on e-commerce platform, increasing manufactures, who sell through e-commerce platform, establish their own website to sell the products. As a result, there will be likely to create competition among three channels:self-operated channel managed by the e-commerce platform, platform channel and online direct channel managed by the manufacturer. This new channel competition is worth studying, and which is the focus of this article.
    Thus, in this paper, a setting in which an e-commerce platform firm operates an online platform through which manufactures can sell their products to consumers, but who may sell competing products through their own platform (i.e. introduce self-operated channel), is considered. And a single manufacture, who currently sells its product through the platform, but who may establish website to sell its products direct to the consumers (i.e. introduce online direct channel), is considered. Two scenarios are investigated:e-commerce platform introduces self-operated channel and does not, considering two situations:with manufacture introducing direct channel and not. Then, the optimal decision and profit of e-commerce platform and manufacture in these cases are analyzed. Finally, based on the game theory, both players' equilibrium strategies are characterized, then a series of numerical examples to illustrate the correctness of the proposed model are presented.
    The main results are as follows:when the cost of introducing online direct channel is low, the equilibrium strategies will be e-commerce platform introduces self-operated channel and manufacturer operates two channels; and if manufacturer's two channels are both strong, both players will fall into prisoner's dilemma, otherwise, e-commerce platform's profit increases and manufacture's decreases. When the cost of introducing online direct channel is moderate, the equilibrium strategies will be e-commerce platform introduces self-operated channel and manufacturer only operates online direct channel; and if manufacturer's two channels are both strong, or the platform channel is moderately competitive and the direct channel is highly competitive, both players will fall into prisoner's dilemma, otherwise, e-commerce platform's profit increases and manufacture's decreases. When the cost of introducing online direct channel is high, if the online direct channel is strong, both players will fall into chicken game. If not, the equilibrium strategies will be e-commerce platform introduces self-operated channel and manufacturer does not introduce online direct channel, in which e-commerce platform's profit increases and manufacture's decreases. In addition, given the rapid growth of e-commerce, understanding the impact this particular form of competition and channel conflict is of critical importance to the success of e-commerce platform firms, as well as the manufactures.
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    Joint Replenishment Interval-Valued EOQ Model and Cost Allocation Approach Based on Variable-weighted Shapely Value
    YE Yin-fang, LI Deng-feng, YU Gao-feng
    2019, 27 (10):  90-99.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.009
    Abstract ( 260 )   PDF (935KB) ( 59 )   Save
    The joint replenishment problem with a single supplier and multiple retailers for a single product is investigated in this paper. According to the fact that it is difficult for retailers to predict the demands accurately in real situations, a joint replenishment interval-valued EOQ model of retailers whose demands are expressed with intervals is studied. It is assumed that the shortages are allowed and are completely backlogged. The aim of this paper is to determine the replenishment policy which minimizes the average joint cost. The optimal cycle, interval-valued ordering quantity and interval-valued average joint cost are obtained by using the continuous ordered weighted averaging (COWA) operator. Inspired by the variable-weighted theory and the Shapley value, the variable-weighted Shapley value is proposed and a simplified method is developed to obtain the formula of the interval-valued variable-weighted Shapely value by utilizing the lower and upper bounds of the relevant interval-valued coalitions' value, respectively.The method avoids the issues resulting from the Moore's interval subtraction. Then a cost allocation approach based on the interval-valued variable-weighted Shapely value is introduced. The synthetic weights of the interval-valued variable-weighted Shapely values are determined by considering the relative importance of coalitions and players, where the relative importance is reflected by the demand rate. The model and allocation approach proposed in this paper are illustrated with a numerical example to show the applicability and superiority.This paper can be taken as a reference for solving complex joint replenishment cost allocation problems.
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    The Optimization Model and Integrated Algorithm of Cold Chain Logistics System of South China Sea
    WANG Nuo, WANG Yi-xuan, TIAN Xi-huan, WU Di
    2019, 27 (10):  100-109.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.010
    Abstract ( 235 )   PDF (2305KB) ( 73 )   Save
    Establishing the cold chain logistics system of remote islands has a great significance. It is important to develop the fishing of aquatic products in remote sea, which can improve safeguard national marine rights and interests. Firstly, based on the characteristics of the cold chain logistics, two modes of transport organization including transiting to the warehouse built in the islands and directly transporting by refrigerated ships were considered. Next, viewing the least total cost as the decision object, the optimization model is constructed, which is involved in the two modes of transport, and an integrated algorithm is proposed according to the multiplicity of optimization routings in the model and the advantages of related algorithms. This integrated algorithm combines genetic algorithm as the external frame with improved plant growth simulation algorithm as internal module, and transfers the information between the inside and outside. Finally, the cold chain logistics system in South China Sea is used as an case to conduct the analysis. The results indicate that in the 10 fishing grounds of the remote islands in the South China Sea, both directly transporting by refrigerated ships and indirectly transiting to the warehouse are considered. On the one hand, four fishing grounds are sent to the cold storage for transfer and then transported by a refrigerated transport ship to the mainland fishing ports. On the other hand, the other 6 fishing grounds are directly purchased by two refrigerated processing ships and frozen and then transported back to the mainland fishing ports. Compared with the traditional genetic algorithm, the total cost decreases by 10.97%, the standard deviation and the variance decreases by 50% and 75%, and the calculation time decreases by 59.94%. Overall, the computing speed, the precision and the stability of calculation are obviously improved. It examines that the model and algorithm in this study are more valid and reasonable.
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    Ambulance Location Planning Considering the Spatial Randomness of Demand
    SU Qiang, YANG Wei, WANG Qiu-gen
    2019, 27 (10):  110-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.011
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (2041KB) ( 121 )   Save
    To guarantee that the emergency calls can be responded to in time, the government is obliged to implement an effective ambulance location plan. In practice, the emergency medical service (EMS) system works in an uncertain environment with stochastic demand, response time, and travel time. The uncertainty of these factors significantly affects ambulance location planning. However, most recent studies in this field fail to consider adequately the effect of the spatial randomness of demand, since it is difficult to describe quantitatively. As a result, most location plans are not efficient.
    In this study, Gaussian mixture model clustering is innovatively utilized to describe the spatial uncertain demand quantitatively. The entire planning region can be re-clustered into several Gaussian-distributed demand areas. Based on the depiction of the spatial randomness of demand, an integer programming model for ambulance location planning is constructed. Additionally, in this model, a strict service preference order is specified among the responsible sites for each demand area. The chance-constrained programming method is used to solve the proposed model.
    Two years' data from the Shanghai Songjiang District are used to validate the method proposed. The data from 2013 are utilized to fit the spatial distribution of demand. The data from 2014 are used to test and verify the obtained models. Compare with the location plan which ignores the spatial randomness of demand, the performances of the optimal plan obtained by the proposed method are much better. The experimental results indicate that the spatial randomness of demand can significantly affect the effectiveness of the ambulance location plan. Assumptions without considering spatial randomness will result in lots of unexpected delays. Consequently, the plan obtained is unreliable to implement in practice.
    The effects of the spatial randomness of EMS demands are considered in our proposed method. Therefore, the service delay caused by spatial distribution randomness can be significantly decreased. For life-improving projects such as the establishment of the emergency medical services network, reducing delay in rendering emergency care is the basic requirement to increase the public's satisfaction with the healthcare system.
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    Modeling and Optimizing the Disassembly Line Balancing Problem of Type II
    WANG Shu-wei, GUO Xiu-ping, Liu Jia
    2019, 27 (10):  120-127.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.012
    Abstract ( 247 )   PDF (2615KB) ( 63 )   Save
    The increasing environment and resource problems, enhanced public environmental awareness, coupled with tremendous economic interests, force manufacturers to recycle and reuse the sharp growth of discarded products for reserving natural resources and reducing environmental pollution. Disassembly is one of the key processes in product recovery, which directly affects the benefit of remanufacturingand the harmful degree on environment. However, the unbalanced phenomenon often occurs when the tasks are distributed across the workstations in the process of disassembly, which affects the disassembly efficiency. Therefore, in this paper, to deal with returned products disassembled on the disassembly line with fixed number of workstations, a disassembly line balancing problem of type II (DLBP-II) is presented to minimize the cycle time and ensure the balance of workloads among workstations. Then a parallel dynamic neighborhood depth search (PDNDS) algorithm was proposed to solve it. In the PDNDS, two sets of neighborhood structure are constructed. A dynamic search strategy is applied to realize parallel search of the solutions. The solution can jump out of the local optimum rapidly by using the threshold value mechanism. During the adjustment of cycle time, a bound strategy based on binary search is introduced to accelerate the search speed. Finally,the validity of the constructed model and the superiority of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated by benchmark instances.
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    Research on Salary Incentive Mechanism for Information Processing Business with Risk Conduction
    XU Bao-guang, XU Jing, GAO Min-gang, SHAO Xue-yan
    2019, 27 (10):  128-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.013
    Abstract ( 191 )   PDF (2367KB) ( 44 )   Save
    The information processing business obtains regenerative information products that support enterprises' decision-making through inspecting and processing information. Due to risk conductivity, not only value but also risks are created in the information processing business. Man-made error is one of the main reasons for risks of information processing business. To reduce the risks, an effective salary incentive mechanism is designed to improve the enthusiasm of employees. The information processing business with two links in series is considered in this paper. The output of the post-order employee is a nonlinear function of the effort level of both the pre-order employee and the post-order employee. Using process modeling technology and principal-agent theory, an incentive model for information processing business under incomplete information is established. The employees' decision-making is to choose the optimal effort level which can achieve the largest net income. The enterprise's decision-making is to set the optimal incentive coefficient so as to maximize its own interest. The salary incentive schemes and the employees' optimal decision under the 9 circumstances are obtained. Example analysis shows that when selecting and deploying employees engaged in the information processing business, enterprises should select employees with higher levels of effort, and arrange the post-order employees with high accuracy rate of inspection.
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    Dynamic Multi-stage Allocation Model of Emergency Materials for Multiple Disaster Sites
    WANG Yan-yan, SUN Bai-qing
    2019, 27 (10):  138-147.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.014
    Abstract ( 227 )   PDF (1479KB) ( 128 )   Save
    Frequent disasters pose a great threat to human survival and social development, and pose challenges to the government's emergency response and disaster rescue. The key to effectively reduce the post-disaster losses and casualties lies in the scientific and equitable allocation of emergency relief materials. Therefore, how to quickly meet emergency material needs of disaster areas and reduce disaster losses through an effective emergency material allocation scheme is a realistic problem in the field of emergency management. Disasters usually cause multiple disaster sites, and their demand for different materials in different emergency stages changes dynamically in real time, resulting in the traditional static single-stage model may not meet the dynamic multi-stage allocation requirements of emergency materials. Based on this, a dynamic multi-stage allocation model for emergency materials based on multiple distribution centers, multiple supply sites and multiple disaster-affected sites is constructed by introducing an exponential utility function, considering the dynamic change characteristics of demands for different emergency materials at different stages, and combining the principle of efficiency and equity. The efficiency target minimizes the total costs that are produced by allocating all materials to all disaster sites during all stages, and the equity target minimizes the total loss that is produced by unsatisfied material demands during all stages, for achieving equitable allocation of materials among multiple affected sites. Then, the objective transformation and linear approximation method is used to solve the proposed model. For each disaster site mM, material nN and stage kK, create a set of "breakpoints" Bmnk, which are values at which the utility function will be (under)-approximated. A new variable μmnk is introduced to represent the value of the utility function. Then the nonlinearity can be replaced/approximated in the objective function with the new objective function, as long as the following constraints are added:μmnkγ(g)+γ'(g)(Pmnk-g), ∀ mM,nN,kK,gBmnk. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the proposed model is verified through designing numerical examples and solving. The results indicate that the proposed model can consider both efficiency and fairness of material allocation, and can minimize the delay loss of material shortage and the total cost of material allocation. Moreover, quantifying the equity by using the proportional shortage of material demand of disaster victims, can avoid the impact on the fair allocation caused by the difference of demand among the disaster sites. This model can make the disaster sites obtain a certain ratio of materials needed at each stage even the supplies are limited or supplies are in short supply in the initial stage of emergency relief. Thus avoiding large material shortfalls and losses, ensuring fairness of multi-stage allocation of emergency materials among multiple disaster-stricken points are more in line with the reality of disaster relief. In addition, the proposed model, results and insights can provide decision support for the allocation of emergency relief materials in large-scale disasters, thereby developing effective allocation strategies according to different contexts.
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    Two Stage Winner Determination Approach with Interacting Attributes
    YANG Na, LIAO Xiu-wu, LEI Hong-zhen
    2019, 27 (10):  148-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.015
    Abstract ( 168 )   PDF (2064KB) ( 52 )   Save
    Winner determination problem (WDP) is one of the most important research issues in multi-attribute reverse auctions. Presently, the additive value function is commonly used as the scoring rule to solve WDP, which ignores the interactions among the attributes in reality. To deal with the interacting effects, the Choquet integral defined on 2-order additive fuzzy measures is used in this paper to represent an auctioneer's preference, where the n+Cn2 parameters are inferred by a set of indirect preference information in accordance with the preference aggregation-disaggregation paradigm. Generally, the scoring functions which could restore the auctioneer's preference are not unique. A two stage winner determination model is then proposed, which aimes at utilizing all the compatible scoring functions to determine the winner. In each round of an iterative auction, all the potential winning bids are first selected via a linear programming model. Then, a mixed integer linear programming model is developed to determine a ranking which is most close to the evaluations of all the compatible scoring functions. The bid with the highest score in this ranking will be the robust winning bid, which will be recommended to the auctioneer. The auctioneer's final decision will generate a feedback information to further refine the elicitation. Finally, a simulation experiment is conducted to evince the practical applicability of the method. The simulation results show that in general a large amount of bids are impossible to win, and the percentage increases with the number of bids in each round, which illustrates the necessity of choosing the potential winning bids in the first stage. The comparison with an existing approach verifies the validity and efficiency of the method. According to the simulation, the proposed method can identify all the outranked bids determined by the existing approach as losing bids. Moreover, unlike the existing method which will generate a set of "unknown bids", the proposed one can distinguish the potential winning bids from the offers. In computation efficiency, the running time of the proposed method is always less than the existing one in the same auction setting. Although both two methods will cost more time with larger rounds or more bids, the running time of the existing method increases more sharply, which proves the advantage of the proposed method in computation efficiency.
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    The Pricing Strategy in Different Online Selling Schemes
    BAI Shi-zhen, JIANG Man
    2019, 27 (10):  159-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.016
    Abstract ( 320 )   PDF (1887KB) ( 170 )   Save
    With the development of e-commerce, online sales have vastly contributed to the growth of retail sales in China. There are two main selling schemes for online sellers. One is regular selling, the other is discount advance selling. The consumers' valuations are distinct between different selling schemes, which is called consumption value difference. We focus on analyzing three interesting questions. First, how does the online seller design the more beneficial selling schemes? Second, since both the consumers' valuations and delivery lead time setting by online seller are different in the two main schemes, how do the seller's equilibrium decisions be affected by consumption value difference and the time-sensitivity? Third, how do dominant structures influence the equilibrium strategy? These questions are important to online sellers because they are closely related to operational decisions.
    Considering the consumption value difference, the consumer shopping behaviors under regular selling mode, discount advance selling mode and dual selling mode are first characterized. The structural properties of the equilibrium strategies are provided in three sales schemes using the optimization technique under Stackelberg Game and Nash Equilibrium. Then, according to the threshold of consumption value difference, the conditions are identified under which selling mode choose for online seller. The impacts of selling modes and the dominant structures of the supply chain on the equilibrium strategies are analyzed. Finally, the influences of consumption value difference and the delivery lead time on optimal expected profit are analyzed in an numerical example.
    The research reveals that a medium threshold of consumption value difference exists in dual selling mode where both the online seller and manufacturer outperform their counterparts in two main selling schemes. Selling mode has no effect on the price of pre-order product while influences the price of regular product. Optimal product price and wholesale price derived from manufacturer-dominated supply chain are high but the sales volume is the opposite. With the increasing consumer time-sensitivity,the firms' performance will decrease under discount advance selling mode only. It is necessary to shorten the lead time in order to prevent sales decrease under discount advance selling mode. It is also found that the profit is relatively prominent in the manufacturer-dominated supply chain under the dual selling mode. These results will contribute to online sellers in choosing an appropriate and efficient sales strategy.
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    Time-Cost Trade-off Optimization of Construction Project Considering Workspace Interference
    LI Qian, TAO Sha, ZHOU Xiao-yuan, SHENG Zhao-han
    2019, 27 (10):  170-178.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.017
    Abstract ( 175 )   PDF (2331KB) ( 58 )   Save
    Except for labor, equipment, materials resources, space is an important resource for construction activity execution. Space resource required by construction activity means the occupation of two-dimensional or three-dimensional space in construction site during the execution of construction activity. Since the construction site is often fixed and space is limited, space interferences among activities often happen in construction practice, which would reduce productivity, lead to construction delay and cost overrun. Therefore, more and more researchers in construction management field have paid great attention on space interference. When scheduling a construction project, construction project manager should try to prevent or mitigate space interference among activities, which is of great significance to construction practices.
    Previous studies have indicated that space interference can decrease resource productivity which leads to a longer actual duration than expected. Therefore, the influence of space interference on productivity is taken into account in this paper. The construction scheduling problem with variable duration under the influence of space interference is studied. The problem is to optimize two goals simultaneously:project makespan and total cost. To be more specific, the degree of space interference is measured and the productivity function of space interference is proposed. Then, a bi-objective programming model is established. The solution of the model conclude two parts:1) the execution time of each activity; 2) mode selection for each activity. In terms of execution time, the model should determine not only the start time but also the actual duration for each activity, since the actual duration is variable in this problem. In order to solve the problem efficiently, the NSGA-II is adopted where a specific encoding method based on relative delay time and the corresponding decoding mechanism are designed. Finally, the model and the algorithm are verified by analyzing a construction project case. By comparing with the traditional scheduling method, the experimental results show that NSGA-II can reduce the space interference more effectively and improve both two objectives. For the construction case used here, the Pareto solutions saves 3.09% on project makespan and 1.01% on total cost when mode selection being fixed. Comparison experiments are also conducted to explore the influence of critical parameter——maximal relative delay time on the performance of NSGA-II. The experimental results indicate that when the maximal relative delay time be set as 40, the NSGA-II has the best performance on solving the case.
    This research has a certain practical guidance for construction management in reality. It can provide a scientific and reasonable decision support for project managers. It also enriches the theoretical study in the field of construction management and resource-constrained project scheduling problem.
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    Risk Propagation Modeling and Simulation in R&D Network Considering the Interrelation between Projects
    YANG Nai-ding, LIU Hui, ZHANG Yan-lu, LI Rui-meng
    2019, 27 (10):  179-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.018
    Abstract ( 236 )   PDF (2243KB) ( 122 )   Save
    With the rapid change of business environment and uncertainty of market demand, more and more enterprises are forced to form R&D collaborations with others to obtain complementary resource, to shorten the research & development cycle, and to reduce the cost and share risk. However, the risk still existes in R&D networks. In contrast, enterprises will face more types of risk, for instance, opportunism risk, trust risk, and collaborated risk. Furthermore, due to the complexity collaboration relationship between enterprises, a risk raised in one enterprise may trigger other potential risks of its neighboring enterprises through the R&D collaborations. This phenomenon is called risk propagation. As a result, the R&D network will be collapsed once the major amount of enterprises outbreak risks. Therefore, it is significantly to explore the mechanism of risk propagation in R&D network in order to provide some managerial advices for enterprise.
    According to the literature review, many studies have focused their attentions on analyzing risk propagation in R&D network without considering the interrelated relationship between different projects. To fill this gap, the SIS model is adopted to describe risk propagation in R&D network by considering the interrelation between different projects within one enterprise. The sole purpose of our work is to improve the capability of resisting risk and to keep the sustainable development of R&D network.
    Firstly, an R&D network is divided into sub-networks according to the number of projects. The adjacency matrixes are denoted as A1 and A2, and the adjacency matrix of the sub-networks is denoted as C. Secondly, the risk propagation model of R&D network is established by employing the SIS model. In this model, two states are assigned to each enterprise:one is ‘I’ stands for risk occurred, and another is ‘S’ stands for risk not occurred. When a risk of one enterprise on a certain project has occurred, then it will trigger its neighboring enterprises in S state to breakout risk with a specified probability β. In the meanwhile, the interrelated projects within the same enterprise also will be triggered risk with a probability λβ. When a risk of one enterprise has been caused, the enterprise will back to normal from risk with probability μ since some risk control measures took. Therefore, the probability of each enterprise on a specific project can be showed as Eq. (1):

    In Eq. (1) aij, bij are the relationships between enterprises i and j respectively, while cij is the interrelated relationship between different projects within the same enterprise. β is the triggering probability, and λ is a controlling parameter which governs the triggering probability between different projects within the same enterprise.μ is the recovery probability of enterprise.
    When risk propagation reaches a stable state, the enterprises' states will not change with the time window t changing. Then one can obtain the threshold of risk propagation according to the literature of signal network as Eq. (2) shows.
    βc=1/(λmax(A+λB))
    (2)Where λmax(A+λB) is the maximum eigenvalue of matrix A+λB. From Eq. (2), it is obvious that the threshold is determined by the topology of R&D networks and the extent of interrelated between different projects within the same enterprises.
    Finally, interrelated R&D network is generated by employing BA model. The partition of failed enterprises at the end of risk propagation is defined by ρI, which is used to measure the consequence created by risk propagation in R&D network. The mathematical analysis and simulation experiment results show that:(1) the threshold is determined by the sub-networks topology and the degree of the interrelation between different projects in the same enterprise; (2) when considering project interrelated relationship, the threshold is lower than projects interrelated are not considered; (3) by increasing the number of enterprises which existing projects interrelated relationship, the speed and the scope of risk propagation increase rapidly in R&D network; (4) the degree of interrelation between projects within the same enterprise has impact on both the speed and the scope of risk propagation in R&D network.
    By taking projects interrelated relationships between different projects within the same enterprises into account, and analyzing how risk propagation influences the robustness of R&D network through analytic and numerical simulation, the research work of this paper will provide some managerial advices for enterprises risk management under context of network.
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    Research on the Schedule Delay Diagnosis Model of the Contract Item for Program from the Perspective of Sub-network
    FENG Jing-chun, ZHANG Yue, FENG Hui, ZHANG Ke, LI Ming, XUE Song
    2019, 27 (10):  189-197.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.019
    Abstract ( 168 )   PDF (2720KB) ( 54 )   Save
    With the advancement of China's Belt and Road Initiative, more and more large and medium-sized construction projects are undertaken. They have the characteristics of large scale and complicated relationship between projects.Single project management theory has been difficult to meet the needs of program management.Due to the large number of participants in large-scale engineering projects, the delays between the various contract projects of the program affect each other, and the mutual responsibilities are difficult to distinguish clearly. It can be seen that the problems that need to be solved in the program schedule management are more prominent.The delay diagnosis of program object control is an important task. The delay of the total construction period of a program can be judged by the total float due to a certain work delay,however,the problem that it is not solved is the delay of a certain work contract and the subsequent contract project.
    It is analyzed that the research and application of artificial intelligence algorithm in program schedule management and the principle of artificial intelligence algorithm.According to the multi-project management and program management theory, the sub-network of the program is introduced and the program structure the sub-network is constructed based on the sub-network. The critical path method is used to study in detail the impact of specific work duration delays on the current sub-network and subsequent sub-network durations in the program in a contract item network based on the sub-network contract item. The concepts such as feature process and subsequent feature process are used to diagnose and analyze the delays of the duration of contract items under the sub-network perspective. Finally, the different delay cases are elaborated and applied in combination with the examples, and the delays of different responsible subjects are divided into:in critical lines or in non-critical lines. According to different delay time, the resulting progress impact is divided into:The impact of the project's own schedule or the progress of the subsequent responsible entity project. The results of the example show that the sub-network based on project delay diagnosis can clearly distinguish the sub-network contractor's construction delay liability, and provide basis for the adjustment of project schedule and engineering claims.The data used in the case is representative, and the case results and conclusions obtained from it are universal. The research results in this paper provide a basis for further research on issues related to program management.
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    Group Choice Behavior in Green Travel Based on Scale-free Network
    ZHENG Jun-jun, ZHANG Bing, CHENG Yi, XU Ming-yuan, LI Run-fa
    2019, 27 (10):  198-208.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.020
    Abstract ( 267 )   PDF (2647KB) ( 106 )   Save
    At present, China is facing increasingly serious air pollution problems, of which motor vehicle pollution is the main source. And promoting the concept of green travel can help alleviate air pollution caused by vehicle exhaust. Therefore, the research on the green travel choice behavior of limited rational individuals in complex social networks and the evolution of group choice behavior become the focus of this paper. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, an individual cognition-behavior model is established that individual green travel intention is influenced by individual behavior attitude, perceived behavioral control, subjective norms and green travel willingness of the previous period. Based on dynamics of opinion spread and scale-free network, an interaction model of individual choice behavior in the network is constructed. Empirical and simulation analysis shows that individual behavioral attitude has a high value ingreen travel behavior willingness, which plays a significant role, while behavioral perception factor has a relatively limited impact. Improving the value of behavioral perception results and subjective normative factors is the main way to improve residents' green travel behavior willingness. Under the optimal connection principle and the assumption of network growth, the trend of aggregation of the whole network towards several central nodes is becoming more and more obvious, which means the degree of centralization of network nodes is becoming more and more significant. In the social network, improving the threshold of information interaction, discount coefficient, the sense of spiritual satisfaction and creating opinion leaders who publicize green travel is conducive to improving green travel behavior willingness.
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    Platform Competition, Exclusive Dealing Contracts and Competitive Bottlenecks
    ZHOU Tian-yi, CHANG Wei, CHEN Qing-zhu
    2019, 27 (10):  209-216.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.10.021
    Abstract ( 410 )   PDF (889KB) ( 169 )   Save
    In recent years, competition between platforms has created a new pattern of competition. This kind of competition is quite different from the competition model of traditional industrial organization. On one hand, the platform may attract a large number of consumers at low or even free price. On the other hand, they can seek profits from advertisers and suppliers. In reality, there are many cases of conflicts between platforms and suppliers, such as disputes between CAINIAO and SF EXPRESS. This phenomenon is studied and makes a reasonable economic explanation is given for this phenomenon. The welfare effects of exclusive agreements are also studied and theoretical basis for China's anti-monopoly law enforcement in related fields is provided.
    In the basic model, a game model based on Hotelling model is developed. It is supposed that there are two symmetric platforms located at either end of Hotelling line. Platforms are viewed as homogenous by sellers but heterogeneous by buyers. In the equilibrium, it is shown that "competitive bottlenecks" arise endogenously, which means that platforms do not compete directly for sellers, instead choosing to compete indirectly by subsidizing buyers to join. Sellers are left with none of the gains from trade.
    In the extension section, it is found that platform has incentive to sign an exclusive contract with all sellers. In the equilibrium, it is shown that although the rival platform is foreclosed from one side of the market, it still has some demand from agents on the other side. It is shown that welfare effects of exclusive agreements are uncertain. When the marginal cost of the platform and the parameters of cross externalities are larger, the signing of exclusive agreements can enhance social welfare.
    This paper has several contributions. First, it is shown the mechanism of issue between platforms and suppliers. The agents who have incentive to multi-home will be always extracted all surplus by platforms. Second, the welfare analysis shows that if platform use exclusive contract to lock all suppliers, the consumer surplus and social welfare may become higher or lower. The welfare effect is not certain. So the government should pay careful attention to the welfare effects of exclusive contract at such a market.
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