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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 March 2018, Volume 26 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Analysis of Systemic Risk among Industries via Dynamic Factor Copulas
    YE Wu-yi, TAN Ke-qi, MIAO Bai-qi
    2018, 26 (3):  1-12.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.001
    Abstract ( 1039 )   PDF (3090KB) ( 1237 )   Save
    The correlation among international financial markets and the research on systemic risk have been emphasized by scholars. This paper focuses on the domestic stock sector indexes for empirical analysis. In this article, a dynamic factor Copula model is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship of the daily returns, and further to measure the spillover effects of systemic risks among industries based on EPR (Expected proportion of industries at risk). For empirical research, this paper chooses intra-day stock prices of respective 28 industries, ranging from January 4th 2006 to July 1st 2016. Based on the path of dynamic factor loading or EPR, the correlations and risk spillover effects between industries can be discussed. Studies show that close correlations exist between returns of sector indexes. In terms of a single trade, the stock index of chemical industry is most susceptible to other industries.In terms of financial and non-financial sector, it is suggested that the financial sectors have a great and relatively stable influence on the non-financial ones. These results could provide investors and risk managers with guidance in decisions-making.
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    Measuring Systematic and Idiosyncratic Components in the Default Risk of Small & Middle Enterprises
    HUANG Ran, FAN Qun, GUO Feng
    2018, 26 (3):  13-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.002
    Abstract ( 818 )   PDF (1902KB) ( 642 )   Save
    Frequent large jumps are more like to occur in volatility of the asset values of Small & Middle Enterprises (SMEs) when suffering the impact of worse external economic condition and sudden events, due to their smaller scale and limited business scope. Thus, their asset values are possible to plunge in short time, which leads to the sharp increase of default risk. The correlation between their default risks becomes higher as well. However, distinct features can also be observed in the change of the default risks of different enterprises.
    In order to better measure the default risks of SMEs and analyze their correlation and heterogeneity, the component analysis, which combining the portfolio default risk analysis with systematic risk indicator β, is developed under the assumption that the asset value follows the diffusion-jump stochastic process. In such a way, individual default risk can be divided into systematic component and idiosyncratic component, on the basis of which Systematic Component Index (SCI) and Idiosyncratic Component Index (ICI) are constructed. Larger SCI represents bigger systematic default risk and higher correlation between the risks, which caused by worse external economic condition or negative impact of sudden event. On the other hand, larger ICI shows higher nonsystematic or idiosyncratic default risk, which is primarily driven by its heterogeneity. In further empirical research, systematic change in default risk of the sample SMEs is found significant, but the systematic and idiosyncratic components of SMEs from different sectors are quite different.
    The component analysis provides methodological advantage in explaining joint default risk as well as firm-specific risk of SMEs and will help to advance the default risk management for them.
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    An Investment Decision-making Model under Implementation Lag and Equity-for-guarantee Swap
    GAN Liu, LUO Peng-fei, YANG Zhao-jun
    2018, 26 (3):  22-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.003
    Abstract ( 887 )   PDF (4248KB) ( 621 )   Save
    Most capital projects involve significant time to completion before they start generating cash flows, and this time lag is known in the literature as ‘implementation lag’. On the other hand, entrepreneurs always encounter financing problems and it is difficult or even impossible for them to obtain loans directly from banks. To overcome such financing constraints, equity-for-guarantee swap is introduced by entrepreneurs, where a bank lends at a given interest rate to a lender and once the lender defaults on the loan, the insurer must pay all the outstanding interest and principal to the bank instead of the lender. At the same time, the lender must allocate a fraction of the lender's equity to the insurer, which is called the guarantee cost.
    Inspired by the composition of the implementation lag and financing constraints of the project investment in practice, an optimal investment decision-making model is constructed by real options theory. First, it is assumed the cash flow of the project is described by the Geometric Brownian Motion. Second, entrepreneur wants to implement the project by two stages, with some elapsed time between the two stages, before it can realize any benefits from the project. In the first stage, the entrepreneur invests a fraction θ of the total investment cost (orθI) and receives a fraction θ of the total set of assets of the project. In the second stage, the entrepreneur pays the remainder of the investment cost, or (1-θ)I, and receives the remaining fraction of the assets. Third, to overcome financing constraint, equity-for3guarantee swap among an entrepreneur, a lender (bank), and an insurer is introduced. The insurer must pay all the loss from the borrower's default and so the lender's asset is risk-free. So, the value, denoted by Dguar(x), of the insurer's compensatory payment to the lender, must satisfy the following equation (1-τi)Dguar(x)=(1-τi)c/r-D(x), where(1-τi)c/r is the value of risk-free debt, D(x) is the value of risk debt. To make the swap fair, an insurer's compensatory payment should be equal to the present value of an SME's equity allocated to the insurer at the investment time. That is φE(x)=(1-τf)Dguar(x),where φ is the guarantee cost. At last we give the value of corporate securities and give the algebraic equations of the guarantee costs by the method of dynamic programming and equilibrium pricing. The impact of implementation lag and equity-for-guarantee swap on the entrepreneurs' investment policy and default decisions is explored.
    In our numerical analysis, the base parameter values are taken from Sarkar and Zhang (2015) and Gan et al. (2016) based on empirical evidence. The results show that:Implementation lag will increase leverage of the project, leading entrepreneur investment earlier, and it will rise the warranty costs of the first phase and reduce warranty cost of the second phase; When first phase investment proportion increases, optimal level of investment entrepreneurs U-shaped, warranty costs of the first stage decrease, and the cost of second stage incurs an inverted U-shape; Scale of financing have a significant impact on the level of investment, the level of bankruptcy and warranty costs. Our study enriches the application of real options theory on financing constraint.
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    Port Investment Risk Measurement Based on Logistic Growth Equation-Markov Model
    LI Dian-sheng, ZHANG Teng-fei
    2018, 26 (3):  33-42.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.004
    Abstract ( 770 )   PDF (1636KB) ( 605 )   Save
    China's economy is shifting from high speed growth to "new normal" development, the throughput capacity of the port also turn to slow down, the port risk problem is becoming more and more obvious. The development of the port is similar to China's economic development, and showing a very obvious nonlinear development features, it is difficult to describe the realistic problem by using the traditional single model. In this paper, the logistic growth model is initially combined with the Markov model, then logistic growth equation generates the state parameters that Markov model needs, and based on this fact, a risk transfer probability matrix is constructed. So the problem about the port investment risk measure can be effectively solved. The sample data from 1985 to 2014 is selected to verify the results, and the results show that the port investment risk will be highlighted after 2016, and will last for a longer period of time. China's port is currently in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and it is necessary to accelerate the transition from extensive expansion to the connotation of the development, from extensive to detailed management.
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    The Identification of Potential Infectious Source of International Financial Crisis and the Analysis of Their Contagiousness
    PANG Xiao-bo, WANG Ke-da
    2018, 26 (3):  43-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.005
    Abstract ( 767 )   PDF (2041KB) ( 949 )   Save
    The Asian financial crisis and Greek debt crisis showed that small countries can lead to a severe crisis. Apart from Thailand and Greece, those countries which can trigger a regional financial crisis or international financial crisis should not be ignored. Based on complex network theory, a global macroeconomic network containing 148 countries and regions using international trade data of 2007 is constructed. Moreover, the susceptible infected recovered (S.I.R) epidemic model with a changeable probability of infection is utilized to simulate the financial crisis transmitting through network. By this method, the number of countries and the aggregate economic volume that different countries will affect in different crisis levels can be obtained according to which countries are classified in six categories using dynamic clustering method. By calculating the Spearman correlation coefficients between contagiousness and GDP, import volume and index of network topology comprising degree, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficients, the major influence factors that can explain the difference of contagiousness are explored. The results show that there is region feature in the difference of contagiousness and many countries with lower GDP can lead to a severe crisis. Countries located in category 1 to category 4 in the global macroeconomic network are potential infectious source. Countries with higher GDP and import will lead to negative spillover when a small crisis occurs, while countries with more trade partners and in the center of the network have the potential to lead to a severe crisis. Then the financial crisis transmitting through network of 2009 is simulated and the results pass the robust test. In this paper, the conclusions make for discovering countries which should be concerned and building a global early warning system to watch for future financial crisis.
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    Informal Financeand Chinese Macro Economy-Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis
    PAN Bin, YANG Xin, XIAO Ji-hong, WEN Fenghua
    2018, 26 (3):  51-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.006
    Abstract ( 718 )   PDF (1332KB) ( 644 )   Save
    As the crucial financing channel for small and medium-sized enterprise in China, the informal finance plays an important role in the development of Chinese economy. In this paper, the theoretical influencing mechanism running from informal finance to Chinese main macroeconomic variables is explored. On this basis, the VAR model is used to empirically investigate the impacts of informal finance on these macroeconomic variables by choosing China private finance index as the agent of informal finance. The results show that, in theory, the informal finance can directly and indirectly through the monetary policy affect economic growth and inflation; the interaction between the informal finance and the monetary policy depends on the linkages among macroeconomic variables or relies on the transmission of formal finance. From the perspective of empirical analysis, the informal finance has a significant effect on the economical growth, and the development of informal finance first positively affect economic growth, and then turns to a negative effect on it. The informal finance can also significantly affect inflation, and the rise of private finance rate will exacerbate inflation. However, because the economic growth and inflation cannot significantly affect the monetary policy and the informal finance does not have a significant interaction with the formal finance, there is not an evident relationship between the informal finance and the monetary policy, which indicates that informal finance can't indirectly affect economic growth and inflation through monetary policy. These results provide a deeper insight into the relationships between the informal finance and macroeconomic variables, which will be benefit to make corresponding economic policy and control the risk of the informal finance.
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    Research on the Pricing Decision of Manufacturer Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Return Risk
    ZHANG Xue-long, WU Dou-dou, WANG Jun-jin, LIU Jia-guo, ZHANG Yi-chun
    2018, 26 (3):  59-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.007
    Abstract ( 913 )   PDF (4197KB) ( 952 )   Save
    In the process of re-shopping, customers are hard to get an accurate evaluation due to their full understanding of product information infringement. The exante uncertainty of product value evaluation is likely to have the problem that products are not in line with the consumer preferences, which causes the occurrence of product returns. Compared to the traditional channels, because customers cannot have close physical contact with the products while they are shopping online, the mismatching between products and their preferences makes the returns more serious.First of all, in terms of the returns caused by exante uncertainty, it should consider the influence of return risks on market demands from the consumer behaviors (rational consumers will reduce their purchase desires, because they can anticipate the pricing differences and the utility loss brought by return risk in the shopping decision-making process), and the construction absorbs the demand function of return factors. Then, through the Stackelberg game model, double channel supply chain optimal decisions of the four conditions are studied in the different pricing models. At last, through the example analysis, the result of the models is verified and a series of valuable conclusions are drawn. The research shows that price in electronic channels is positively proportional to the market demand of electronic channels, the wholesale price is positively proportional to sales price and market demands of traditional channels, the relationship between the SA service level and market basic demands of traditional channels (linear) depend on certain conditions; the impact of return risks to supply chain decision is related to pricing mode and the influence of market demand; manufacturers prefer the pricing inequality model and retailers love the pricing equality model; the impact of return risks and pricing difference to supply chain member revenue is associated with pricing model, the impact of the overall supply chain revenue is related to the pricing model and return rate.The demand function of absorbing pricing difference and return risk double factors is constructed to distinguish the previous researches, makes up the shortcomings of previous studies. The paper can enrich and perfect the relevant theories of double channel supply chain, and provide series of useful guidance for the decision of manufacturers and retailers.
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    Quality Control Behavior in the Three-echelon Equipment Manufacturing Supply Chain
    SUN Jian-hui, ZHANG Hai-bo, ZHAO Li-ming
    2018, 26 (3):  71-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.008
    Abstract ( 752 )   PDF (1277KB) ( 642 )   Save
    As the fundamental guarantee of industrialization construction and national economic development, the product quality control decision of the equipment manufacturing under the environment of supply chain has attracted a wide spread attention. Considering the impact of the product quality on the profit of supply chain, the paper tries to explore the coordination problem of quality control behaviors in the three-echelon equipment manufacturing supply chain consisted of a single manufacturer, a single component supplier and a single part supplier using differential game theory.Relevant conclusions are gained through comparing the equilibrium results of the decentralized decision models including Nash non-cooperative game and Stackelberg leader-follower game and the centralized decision model of coordinated cooperation game. Then the model is verified by a numerical analysis. The results indicate that,① the quality control behavior of the manufacturer remains the same in the decentralized decision models, but the Stackelberg leader-follower game is more effective than the Nash non-cooperative game to improve the quality control behaviors of the component supplier and the part supplier, as well as enhance the profits of the supply chain members;②the quality control behaviors of the supply chain members and the total profit of the supply chain achieve optimality in the centralized decision model. The research conclusions provide the theoretical basis for the construction of quality control strategic alliance among the equipment manufacturing supply chain members.
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    Supply Chain Incentives and Competition Strategy Based on the Product Safety Responsibility
    MENG Jiong, TANG Xiao-wo, NI De-bing
    2018, 26 (3):  84-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.009
    Abstract ( 740 )   PDF (2188KB) ( 650 )   Save
    The problem of product safety responsibility arising from any node enterprise will spread throughout the entire supply chain,which will affect the performance of other related interest entities and the whole supply chain. In order to deal with this challenge problem, supply chain managers must strategically take PSR strategies to affect stakeholders to improve its performance. In this paper, the conflict coordination of supply chain and market share competition are not considered. Only game theory is used to compare and analyze the equilibrium results of the game model of the supply chain in four scenarios based on wholesale price contract:"noncompetitive and non incentives coordination","noncompetitive and incentives coordination", "competition and non incentives coordination" and "competition and incentives coordination". The basic ideas of the study are as follows:First, the basic assumptions of the model are put forward; Secondly, the game model of the supply chain is constructed and solved in four scenarios; Finally, using example simulation to compare and analyze the equilibrium product safety responsibility, equilibrium market demand, equilibrium expected return of the supply chain in four scenarios, and analyzes the influence of the incentives level and the degree of competition to the equilibrium product safety responsibility, equilibrium market demand, and equilibrium expected return.The results show that proper wholesale price incentives coordination can promote manufacture's product safety responsibility level, market demand and the expected revenue of supply chain and its participants. But excessive incentives will reduce market demand and distributor's expected return, and then block the increasing of the total expected revenue of supply chain. Competition will decrease market demand and the expected revenue of supply chain and its participants. Competition will reduce manufacture's product safety responsibility level when low motivation, Competition will enhance manufacture's product safety responsibility level when high motivation.Adopting wholesale price contract incentives coordination, can strengthen competitiveness of supply chain, but excessive competition will reduce manufacture's product safety responsibility level, and thendamage the benefit of supply chain and its participants. The equilibrium results of game model has carried on the example simulation in this paper on the basis of the introduction of Erie and Mengniu competition cases. Research results enrich the decision-making theory of supply chain, which provides a strong theoretical support and method reference for scholars to study the issue of product safety responsibility in the supply chain, and be able to provide an important guide for product safety responsibility management practices in food and drug supply chain.
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    Coordination Contract for Green Car Rental System with Promotion Effort Dependent Demand Rate
    JING You-guo, GUO Pei-qiang, QIN Kai-da
    2018, 26 (3):  94-100.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.010
    Abstract ( 751 )   PDF (1630KB) ( 700 )   Save
    With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, the green travel is getting more and more attention. However, in terms of the green car rental, there are few studies on the cooperation mechanism between the green car rental company and the city government. Therefore, this paper will study the relationship between them by applying the supply chain coordination contract theory.
    Firstly, considering a two-echelon system which is composed of a green car rental company and a government, the game model between them is built with the assumptions that the demand rate is random and depends on the government's promotion efforts. Secondly, the optimal decisions of fleet sizing and promotion effort level under the decentralized decision, the centralized decision and a combined contract based on revenue sharing and cost sharing are researched respectively, and a comparative analysis is carried out. Finally, the example analysis is employed to verify the reliability and validity of the above models.
    The following results is attained:the system can't achieve coordination under the decentralized decision; the introduced combined contract of revenue sharing and cost sharing can not only achieve system coordination but also make the members of the system achieve Pareto improvement when the contract parameters satisfy certain conditions. The example analysis illustrates that the two parties can achieve the integrated optimal profit only through cooperation. the proposed cooperation mechanism between the green car rental company and the city governmentcan provide an innovative theoretical basis for further related researchs.
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    Pricing and Service Cooperation with “Buy-Online, Pick-up-in-Store”: Considering Upselling Effect and Leadership Structures
    FAN Chen, LIU Yong-mei, CHEN Xiao-hong
    2018, 26 (3):  101-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.011
    Abstract ( 936 )   PDF (3172KB) ( 792 )   Save
    The omni-channel retailing has been a recent trend in retailing industry. Buy-online,pick-up-in-store is one of the most typical patterns and is widely applied in world famous retailers as Uniqlo. This mode brings better service experience to the consumers and more traffic and sales to the brick-and-mortar stores, in the mean time, challenging the extant online and offline operations in pricing and revenue allocation. Thus, how to make the optimal price and service decisions, through what contracts the supply chain is coordinated, and how the leadership structures affect the optimal decisions and profits, are of great significance theoretically and practically.
    The price and service decision model is built in centralized, manufacturer-leading and retailer-leading scenarios respectively, using a rebate contract and a wholesale price contract to coordinate the supply chain. Furthermore, illustrated examples are used to analyze the decision and profit comparison in different scenarios, and the supply chain efficiency is examined. It is found that:1) in the retailer-leading structure, the rebate contract can effectively coordinate the supply chain, and the wholesale price decided by the manufacturer does not influence price and service level and the final revenue allocation; 2) in the manufacturer-leading structure, the wholesale price contract is effective, and the exogenous rebate influences the decision making and revenue allocation and the supply chain gains the optimal profit if it reached zero; 3) generally, the manufacturer-leading structure performs more effectively than the retailer-leading structure, and the double-marginalization effect is less significant.
    The contribution of the paper lies in two parts. First, it is an attempt in building a new price-service decision model in omni-channel research area. Second, it provides insights to the manufacturers and retailers in BOPS implementation considering different leadership structures.
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    The Research of Newsvendor Problem based on Expectation
    WEN Ping, PANG Qing-hua
    2018, 26 (3):  109-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.012
    Abstract ( 768 )   PDF (889KB) ( 571 )   Save
    Newsvendor problem is a basic problem in the stochastic inventory theory, and has been widely studied and used in operations management. The classical newsvendor problem is based on the assumption that the newsvendor is risk-neutral, which means the newsvendor will choose an order quantity that can maximize his expected profit. However, the empirical results show that the actual order quantity often deviates from the optimal order quantity of the classical newsvendor problem. Moreover, most empirical results also show that the newsvendor tends to order less goods than the classical newsvendor problem. To explain this phenomenon, the paper intends to study the newsvendor problem using the Koszegi and Rabin's reference-dependent preference theory. Koszegi and Rabin thought that the reference point is often determined by the decision-maker's rational expectation. In the paper, the newsvendor's rational expectation is used as his reference point. Thus, the newsvendor's reference point is changed from a constant to a random variable, which is more in line with decision maker's decision behavior. The research results show that optimal order quantity of the newsvendor problem based on expectation does exit and is unique. The optimal order quantity is not only related with the probability distribution of goods, sales price, the salvage and other factors, but also related to the degree of the newsvendor's loss aversion. The order quantity of newsvendor based on expectation will increase as the sales price or the salvage increases, but will decrease as the acquisition cost increases. Specially, if the newsvendor is loss aversive, order quantity of newsvendor is less than the order quantity of classical newsvendor problem; conversely, order quantity of newsvendor is greater than the order quantity of classical newsvendor problem. The conclusion is consistent with the most empirical results. New insights into the newsvendor problem are offered by using the newsvendor's rational expectation as his reference point. The research on newsvendor problem can also be carried out in the following aspects. On one hand, it is worthwhile to choose other reference points and discuss the newsvendor problem with these reference points. On other hand, it is clearly that the newsvendor is closely related to decision theory. In recent decades, with the new decision theory especially the risk decision theory emerging, it is a meaningful work to study the newsvendor problem with the new decision theory. In the end, an example is given to illustrate the correctness of the conclusions.
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    Sandwich Measurement Pattern on Attribute-set Capacity Determination and Its Corresponding Capacity Calculation Model
    LI Chun-hao, LI Meng-jiao, TIAN Shuo
    2018, 26 (3):  117-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.013
    Abstract ( 672 )   PDF (900KB) ( 598 )   Save
    For multiple attribute decision making with preference dependence relationship (MADMPDR), a problem is that the decision maker is required to estimate too many attribute-set capacities, which is also called the exponential complexity problem of attribute-set capacity determination. For this problem, the two fuzzy measures namely the λ-measure and the k-order measure, as well as attribute-set capacity calculation (ASCC) models based on these two measures, have been presented in literature. However, they are suffered from impracticality in many decision cases due to arbitrary hypotheses on preference dependence relationship. The impracticality embodies in two aspects. One is the unfeasibility of measurement pattern, the other is the inaccurateness in capacity calculation. To overcome the impracticality of the λ-measure and the k-order measure, a new measurement pattern on attribute-set capacity, called sandwich measurement pattern (SMP), is proposed based on such a strategy of balancing the feasibility of attribute-set capacity determination with the accurateness of ASCC. Then, a linear programming model for ASCC corresponding to SMP, shorted as LPM-SMP, is presented. In specific, the model determines an attribute-set capacity through restricting it between the minimum and maximum of attribute-set capacities of the same order, and squeezing it into a particular range by theoretical quantitative relationships of attribute-set capacities. These relationships include μ(Ø)=0, μ(N)=1, and μ(A∪{Ci})-μ(A) ≥ 0, where N represents the attribute set of attributes C1,…,Cn, μ(·) does the capacity of the attribute-set denoted by "·", {Ci} does the singleton of attribute Ci, and A does a subset of N except {Ci}. Besides, the attribute-set capacity given by LPM-SMP satisfies other constraints built on the judgment information of the decision maker. The judgment information is of three types. The first is on the attribute-set capacity ranks, the second is on the numerical values of low-order attribute-set capacities, and the third is on the minimum and maximum attribute-set capacities within a high-order capacity rank. SMP as well as LPM-SMP has two advantages. First, the number of attribute-set capacities to be estimated is Cn1+Cn2+2(n-3) for a decision with n attributes, which is very acceptable for decision makers since it is only approximate to that when the 2-order measure is adopted. Second, the given attribute-set capacities are more rational than those given by ASCC models based on the λ-measure and k-order measure, since arbitrary hypotheses like those adopted in the measures mentioned above are no longer made in SMP. Data simulation analysis shows that SMP is not only more feasible than the k-order measure, but also greatly superior in calculation accurateness to the λ-measure and the k-order measure. As a result, SMP is more applicable to real-world decisions of MADMPDR.
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    Modelling Internet Users' Negative Emotion Based on SOAR Model
    WU Peng, QIANG Shao-hua, GAO Qing-ning
    2018, 26 (3):  126-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.014
    Abstract ( 874 )   PDF (5906KB) ( 743 )   Save
    To meet the demands of government crisis response in the evolution of network public opinion, an internet users' negative emotion model based on SOAR(State,Operator and Result) model is proposed, where internet users is treated as Agent, behavior transformation process of internet user group in network public opinion is considered as continuous transformation process of state with time in the corresponding public opinion space in this paper. Then, working memory, long-term memory, decision-making process, learning mechanism of Agent are designed, internet user behavior transformation rule repository is constructed, and SOAR Agent model to reveal behavior transformation rules of internet user group is developed ultimately. Moreover, an simulation experiment is designed, typical public opinion events are seleted as samples, group behavior transformation process of Weibo users under the influence of different government emergency measures is conducted, and the SOAR Agent model of internet users' negative emotion is validated. As result of this research, the collective behavior transformation rules of behavior transfer of internet users in the different environments could be analyzed and predicted based on the modelling of internet users' negative emotion, such as different period of internet public opinion, different government crises response strategy.
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    Effect of Market Power on Emissions Trading System Equilibrium under the Heterogeneous Product Market
    JIN Shuai, XU Lun, SHENG Zhao-han
    2018, 26 (3):  139-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.015
    Abstract ( 758 )   PDF (5151KB) ( 501 )   Save
    The market power has become a key problem to limit the extent to which emissions trading systems can fulfill their theoretical promises. Prior research has concentrated on market manipulation by firms seeking to minimize the compliance costs, and exclusionary manipulation within a particular sector under emissions trading system. However, the increasingly significant trends of industry segment and the characteristic of export-oriented economic development largely cause the absence of significant products competition in China's regional emissions trading system. In view of such conditions, the issue of market power in emission trading systems under heterogeneous product condition is mainly explored by taking the interaction between emissions trading system and product markets into account. As the research base, the socially optimal allocation condition is analyzed using a non-linear programming model firstly. Then, a Stackelberg game model between the dominant firm and the fringe firm is constructed in order to examine the strategic behavior of dominant firm and its impact on the system equilibrium by analyzing the optimal decision of fringe firm under specific permit price. The results show that market power has a diverse and complex influence on the system equilibrium. Especially, in order to obtain the windfall profit, the dominant firm would choose two price manipulation strategies:"premium-pricing" strategy while it acts as a permit seller and "under-pricing" strategy while it acts as a buyer. These strategies inevitably cause the deviation of system equilibrium from socially optimal state and the large profit loss of the fringe firm. Moreover, the initial endowment of emission permits is the crucial factor affecting the decision making of the dominant firm. Finally, a quantitative analysis is used to verify conclusions of the analysis, and demonstrates the impact of changes of pollutant producing coefficients of the dominant firm, abatement cost and so forth on the system equilibrium particularly.
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    An Empirical Study on Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emission-Panel Data of China
    PAN Wei, XIONG Jian-wu
    2018, 26 (3):  152-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.016
    Abstract ( 905 )   PDF (2609KB) ( 818 )   Save
    Global climate change has attracted wide attention of the international community, countries around the world have studied climate change to develop the corresponding energy policy. China as the world's largest carbon emitter, the power industry is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy,exploring the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions has important practical significance for the relevant authorities in China in developing low-carbon economy and energy policy planning for power sector.
    In this paper, the causal relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions is discussed based on the panel data of WDI database during 1990-2013 by using econometric techniques,including cointegration test,Granger causality test and impulse response functions. First, the unit root is used to test whether the time series data is stable, because only the stable time series data can be cointegration test and Granger causality test. Then the VAR model is used to explore the long-term equilibrium relationships between electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions and the short-term interactions between variables. Finally, the impulse response functions is used to analyze the effect of stochastic perturbation on the other variables in the model.
    The empirical results show that there exists aco-integration relationship between electricity consumption,economic growth and CO2 emissions,which means long-term equilibrium relationship.While there does not exists Granger causality between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions,economic growth and CO2 emissions,and there exists a two-way Granger causality between economic growth and electricity consumption. It is concluded from the VAR model that the lag of electricity consumption has a positive effect on current economic growth and CO2 emissions;the lag of economic growth has a negative effect on current electricity consumption and CO2 emissions, while the lag of CO2 emissions has no significant impact on current economic growth. Which implies that the previous period economic growth promotes the current economic growth in the short term, as the environmental Kuznets curve described it will stimulate technological innovation and improve energy efficiency in the long term,reducing the current CO2 emissions as results.
    Based on the empirical results, some advice on China's low-carbon economy development and energy policy planning is provided for the power sector. Electricity consumption will increase the amount of CO2 emissions, but not directly promote economic growth. Therefore, in order to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of energy consumption, through technological progress or industrial structure adjustment, making per unit of electricity consumption reduction, thus "low energy consumption, low emission, high yield" green development can be achieved.in addition,it can also actively promote the power industry structure optimization or to find new energy to develop low-carbon economy.
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    Assessment Method on Water Environment Security and Its Application in Jing-Jin-Ji Region
    LIU Xiu-li, TU Zhuo-zhuo
    2018, 26 (3):  160-168.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.017
    Abstract ( 768 )   PDF (1888KB) ( 737 )   Save
    To overcome the disadvantages of weight selection and information missing in the evaluation, an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed in this paper. First, the combined weight model which is based on entropy method, grey relational analysis method and principal component analysis is established. Then, with the weighted average principle, a technique of synthetic grade is introduced to evaluate the result. Our improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can avoid the impact of subjective factors on the determination of weights of the indexes and reflect the contribution of every index to the evaluation result more objectively. Jing-Jin-Ji region is now threatened by the increasingly serious water environmental security problems which adversely affects human health and imposes a limit on social and economic development. Based on this background, it is of practical and theoretical significance to study the water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region and explore effective control measures, which is a major task of realizing Jing-Jin-Ji integration. In this paper, an evaluation index system of water environment security is initially established from three respects:economic society, water quality and resource conditions, which included 17 indicators. Then the principal component analysis method is applied to screen the index system, and 13 indexes are selected as final assessment indexes. Based on the screened index system, we apply this improved method to the water environment security assessment in Jing-Jin-Ji region with data from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Annual Water Resources Bulletin during 2006-2014. The results show that the water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region became better from 2006 to 2012, then got worse. The order of water environment security in three regions was Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin. Among the 13 indicators, the principal influence factors of water environment security are forest coverage rate, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, per capital water resources and the proportion of class Ⅰ-Ⅲ water quality. The elasticity coefficient analysis shows that to improve these four factors was also the most effective way in improving water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region.
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    Research on Emergency Quantity Discount Contract with Stochastic Price under Asymmetric Information
    LIU Lang, WU Shuang-sheng, SHI Wen-qiang
    2018, 26 (3):  169-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.018
    Abstract ( 823 )   PDF (913KB) ( 624 )   Save
    In this paper, the two-stage supply chain with randomly fluctuating market demand and price is taken as the researchobject, and the fluctuations are caused by emergencies. The quantity discount contract is adopted to coordinate the supply chain for finding performance optimization path under information asymmetry. In the case of modeling, it's ensured that when reporting the real cost, in contrast to when reporting the fake cost, the person who owns the private costinformation does not have a lower return; also, the returns of private information owner is higher than those of person inthe supply chain who don't own the private information. Through Display Principle, the quantity discount contract model of the emergency supply chain when the production cost and the sales cost information are asymmetric is constructed,and it is found that the optimal ordering quantity and the optimal pricing price. The results are verified by numerical cases and the influence of the degree of information asymmetry on the members of the supply chain and the market demand and price whole supply chain performance is analyzed. it's shown that when the emergencies cause the market demand and price fluctuating randomly, the private information owners in the supply chain can earn profits from concealing private information regardless of the supplier conceals the production cost or the retailer conceal the sales cost. However, under the premise of information asymmetry and stochastic market price, the overall supply chain performance is impaired when the market demand increases; when the market demand shrinks, the whole supply chain performance will benefit. This conclusion is in stark contrast to previous studies in terms of stochastic market demand, fixed market price and asymmetricinformation.
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    Study on Road Network Recovery under Snow and Ice Conditions based on the Perspective of Resilient City
    WANG Jing, LIU Hao-tian, ZHU Jian-ming
    2018, 26 (3):  177-187.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.019
    Abstract ( 840 )   PDF (2151KB) ( 648 )   Save
    The winter snow and ice weather brings great impact on the urban road network traffic, which will seriously reduce the overall resilience of city. Because of the limits of emergency budget, the location and allocation of snow removal resources is highly correlated with the safety of urban traffic. Based on the perspective of the Resilient City,according to the historical winter weather data and road network structure in a certain city, how to optimize the layout of snow removal resources before snow weather and the plans of snow removal operations in different weather scenarios are studied, in order to improve the absorbing ability and recovering ability to extreme snow weather of urban road network.First, the average speed is used as the index of road network service capability and the Independent Pathway instead of all common pathway is taken as the evaluation target in the urban road network. Secondly, the whole wave process of road network is divided into two periods:absorbing period and recovering period. Accordingly, the metric resilience of urban road network can be expressed as:Res=((Td-T0)*(MOPnew-MOPmin))/(Tmax-T0)*(MOP0-MOPmin), where T is the time index and MOP is service ability of the road network. Among them,(Td-T0) is the absorption period;(Tmax-T0) is the whole wave process of road network;(MOPnew-MOPmin) is the recovery value;(MOP0-MOPmin) is the damage value. The four indexes are used to define the resilience (Res) of urban road network under snow and ice weather, which is set as the optimization target.A higher numerical value of the Res implies a strong resilience of road network. Thus, the LRP mathematical model is established based on optimization target. Third, the improved tabu search algorithm is designed based on the road classification. Last, the numerical analysis about the problem is made, thus, the following conclusions can be obtained. The resilience can systematically reflect the recovery process and can be set as the optimization target of road recovery under snow and ice weather. It is necessary to put the snow removal resources into the critical roads.The numerical result verifies the reliability of the model and method we processed. The study provides some management measures for road network restoration.
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    The Effect of Population Structure on Time Preference
    OU Ming-qing, NI Xuan-ming, WEI Jiang
    2018, 26 (3):  188-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.020
    Abstract ( 761 )   PDF (1226KB) ( 788 )   Save
    Based on the definition of aging rate, the population structure is defined as the ratio of aging rate and population growth rate. This structure influences time preference, and is analyzed in Ramsey model. In the saddle balanced growth path, the output growth rate per capita depends on the difference between the technical progress rate and the aging rate. However, the optimal structure in social welfare maximum is not the same as the one in the output growth maximum. The function simulation is also conducted based on the corresponding first order conditions. In order to analyze the influence of population structure parameters on economic system, a special situation is considered. The aging rate is a fixed proportion of the population growth rate and the population growth rate does not affect population structure parameters. The maximization of economic growth requires that the marginal impact of population structure parameters on technological progress is equal to the growth rate of the total population. In order to simplify the analysis of social welfare, the assumption that the technological progress rate is equal to the rate of ageing is given and then the first order condition of the optimal population structure parameters corresponding to social welfare maximization is obtained. The marginal effect of population structure parameters on the utility discount factor should be equal to zero.
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