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20 April 2018, Volume 26 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Upgrade Strategies in The Presence of Strategic Consumers LI Si-jie, SHAO Ling-zhi 2018, 26 (4):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.001 Abstract ( 981 )   PDF (1839KB) ( 1004 )   Save With the developing of science and technology, to compete for market share and increase revenue, manufacturers and retailers in durable goods industries introduce new upgraded products continuously and phase out old products frequently. However, those firms may face the challenges from forward-looking consumers who anticipate product improvement and seek to delay their purchase. So, it is interesting to investigate the suppliers' optimal upgrade strategy in the presence of consumers' strategic behavior through analyzing the two-period decisions optimization problem of consumers and firms in supply chain. Three upgrade strategies are analyzed:bundling upgrade strategy, component upgrade strategy and conformable upgrade strategy. In each strategy, the rational players make decisions by three stages during two periods. The supplier determines the unit wholesale price of the first-period new products in stage 1, period 1, and the price of the second-period products in stage 1, period 2. Then, the retailer decides the retailing price of products in stage 2, period 1 and period 2. At last, the strategic consumers make decisions of purchase in stage 3, period 1 and 2. By solving the two-stage complete information dynamic game backward, the optimal price decisions of firms could be got. With the target of profit maximization, it is found that the supplier prefers the components upgrade strategy to other strategies with the conditions of value loss of components upgrade and the patience of strategic consumers; otherwise, he or she will adopt the integration strategy, when the patience of strategic consumers is relatively low. Numerical studies are carried out to investigate the effect of supplier's upgrade strategy on retailer and supply chain's profit and to examining the key parameters' influences on the equilibrium solutions and firms' performances. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Business Operation and Decision-making of Players in a Supply Chain under the Distortion of Demand Information LIU Hao, FENG Geng-zhong, JIANG Wei, QIAN Gui-sheng 2018, 26 (4):  11-21.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.002 Abstract ( 923 )   PDF (1062KB) ( 783 )   Save In this work, information leakage and information distortion in a supply chain under a wholesale price contract are studied and theoretical basis is provided for the player's motivation and decisions in reality. A supply chain consisting of a common supplier and two retailer with different market status, an incumbent and an entrant is considered. The incumbent can privately acquire actual demand state while the supplier and the entrant have no access to learn demand information but know the prior distribution of the demand state. Thus, there exists asymmetric demand information between the incumbent with the supplier and entrant. The paper shows that the supplier always leaks the incumbent's order information to the entrant under a wholesale price contract. The entrant accepts the information being leaked by the supplier to assist order decision. Based on signaling game theory and perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium, two equilibrium strategies including the separating equilibrium and the pooling equilibrium under information leakage are included and the ordering strategies of retailers under the different market demand states are shown. Further more, the supplier's and the incumbent's incentive with information distortion are studied and it is found that the supplier has an inventive to distort information to mislead the entrant to make wrong decisions in high demand state under the pooling equilibrium. The supplier and the incumbent more benefit under information distortion, whereas the entrant's profit decreases. Because the entrant earns positive revenue to guarantee business activities, he will remain the market to horizontally compete with the incumbent. Finally, a numerical example is given to verify the conclusions and illustrates the impact of information leakage and distortion on the profits of three players. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Newsvendor Decision-making under Uncertainty of Demand Distribution WANG Hai-yan, JUAN Zhi-ru, Henry Xu 2018, 26 (4):  22-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.003 Abstract ( 1037 )   PDF (1158KB) ( 697 )   Save When ordering under uncertainty of demand distribution, a newsvendor may make wrong judgments of demand distribution, which raises expected inventory costs. How to identify the demand distribution and make right inventory decisions is the main concern of this paper. Assume that the demand follows two different types of normal distribution, which have the same variance but different means. By introducing signal detection theory, an optimal ordering strategy is proposed based on historical demand information and nontraditional demand information to minimize inventory costs for the newsvendor, and it is compared with the intuition rule merely based on the probability of demand distribution. The results show that, excluding the two extreme cases where the probability of demand distribution is either too large or too small, the proposed optimal strategy is better than the intuition rule in controlling inventory costs. It means that with few historical demand information, the newsvendor can effectively adjust the result of demand distribution detection and thus improve his order decisions. Also, the managerial implications of this study in relation to the integration of historical demand information and nontraditional demand information and the exchange of demand information are discussed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Decision-making of Supply Chain with Dual Sale Mode Considering Government's Low-carbon Policies CAO Bin-bin, XIAO Zhong-dong, ZHU Chun-yang 2018, 26 (4):  30-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.004 Abstract ( 926 )   PDF (2191KB) ( 708 )   Save The trend of consumers' low-carbon consumption and the promulgation and implementation of the government carbon emission policies compel the company to inspect carbon emission of their own production and operations. The effects of government price subsidy, one-time subsidy and carbon tax on the decision-making of low-carbon supply chain under the single and dual sale modes are studied in this paper. A low-carbon supply chain centralized decision-making model with one producer and one retailer is built. On the basis of base model and decision models of three policies, the impacts of each policy on pricing and supply chain profit are explored analytically. The results show that given the same emission reduction degree, the product price subsidy under dual sale mode is greater than that of single sale mode. From the perspective of government, for single sale mode, the company should choose one-time subsidy policy to achieve the same emission reduction effect, while dual sale mode should implement the price subsidy policy. Carbon tax can improve emission reduction boundary to promote much more companies to reduce emission. Emission reduction boundary of single sale model is still higher than that of dual sale mode. Government should make a reasonable carbon tax, otherwise the company will not be willing to reduce emission or withdraw from the market. Additionally, the effects of emission reduction on pricing and supply chain profit as well as the influence of three policies' parameters on supply chain profit have been simulated, and some managerial implications have been revealed. The conclusions of this paper can provide theoretical foundation for the government to formulate low-carbon policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Stations Distribution of Waste Collection Based on Carbon Emission ZHOU Zhang-jin, FU Xiao-ling, LI Min 2018, 26 (4):  41-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.005 Abstract ( 766 )   PDF (1207KB) ( 627 )   Save As environmental protection has become a worldwide concern, more and more enterprises, out of their social responsibilities, build recycling stations for waste collection when their productions are at the end of life-cycle. If the number of recycling stations is too large, the cost of operation and carbon emission will have to increase, while a limited number of recycling stations will lead to the increase of costs in transportation and carbon emission on the part of customers. The problem of stations distribution of waste collection in the process of recycling is studied. Considering the impact of carbon tax price on the operation decision of waste collection, the customers, recycling stations and recycling centers are taken as a system and the impact of carbon tax on the number and cost of recycling stations is analyzed from the perspective of the whole society. Firstly, combining customers, recycling stations and recycling center as a system, the energy cost, operation cost and carbon emission cost are considered, and total social cost model of stations distribution of waste collection is established. Secondly, the relationship between the number of recycling stations, carbon tax price and total social cost is analyzed, based on the two extreme cases of carbon tax price 0 and carbon tax price infinite respectively. Finally, numerical experiments are performed on the model. Our main findings are concluded as follow:(1) Considering the carbon tax cost and operating expenses or only considering operating expenses under current carbon tax price, the number of recycling stations calculated in the two cases is the same and the difference of unit total cost is not significant. That is because, the current carbon tax price is too low to have significant impact on operation. The number of recycling stations varies greatly if only considering the carbon tax cost, so increasing the number of recycling stations can reduce the carbon emissions. (2) When the carbon tax price is below 40.03, the operation decision is sensitive to the carbon tax price. When the carbon tax is over 153.1, the sensitivity is sharply reduced. The ideal price of carbon tax should be between 40.03 and 66.46. (3) The carbon emissions are optimal when the recycling stations number is 66. The conclusion can be used as a reference for enterprises to establish recycling stations, or it can be used to support the government's carbon tax policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision-making of Dual-channel Supply Chain Emission Reduction based on Consumer Preference to Low-carbon Sun Jia-nan, Xiao Zhong-dong 2018, 26 (4):  49-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.006 Abstract ( 875 )   PDF (1678KB) ( 913 )   Save In order to weaken the monopoly position of traditional retailer, manufacturers introduce online channel to compete with retailers. This paper is on the basis of consumers' low-carbon and channel preferences, to research whether manufacturers would take action to reduce emissions. Through the comparative analysis of different decision models, the optimal boundary of emission reduction can be found. The results show that,in decentralized decision-making model, the low carbon decision of the manufacturer is influenced by the channel preference; the low carbon decision of the manufacturer remains unchanged when the centralized decision is made. Reduction boundary of different decision models is related to the preference for channel.When the channel preference is higher, the reduction boundary of decentralized decision-making is higher; when the channel preference is lower, the reduction boundary of centralized decision is higher; when the channel preference is neutral, both of them have same reduction boundary. The manufacturer should bring in low-carbon technology, low-carbon management and other ways to reduce the cost sensitive value, and also increase consumers' recognition of its low carbon products through low carbon product certification and advertising at the same time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-Objective Optimization Model for Seru Production System Formation Considering Demand Fluctuation WANG Ye, TANG Jia-fu, ZHAO Lin-du 2018, 26 (4):  57-66.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.007 Abstract ( 841 )   PDF (1190KB) ( 590 )   Save With the increasing of demand diversification, manufacturing enterprises encounter challenges of demand uncertainty and fluctuation. Japanese Seru (Japanese style assembly cell) production system (SPS) has received more attention with its efficiency and flexibility especially under uncertain demand. More researches focus on how to implement Seru production system appropriately. However,most of current research focus on the deterministic demand. To enrich the research in this field, a line-Seru conversion problem is investigated in this paper. Considering the fluctuation of product demand, a multi-objective optimization model of line-Seru conversion problem is developed to minimize the expectation and variance of make span (MS). The minimized expectation of make span offers quick response to a production system with fast delivery. The minimized variance of make span represents the high system stability. The aim of this paper is to offer a method for formulating a robust Seru production system which can ultimately deal with the fluctuation of product demand. In order to obtain optimal solutions of this NP-Hard problem, an NSGA-Ⅱ (non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ) based algorithm is developed.Combining the benchmark data from Yu Yang et al[18] with fluctuation factors,numerical experiments are conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model and illustrate how to implement the method. The experiment results show that both delivery time and stability of SPS will be improved with considering the demand fluctuation. At the same time, performance of the system will decline with the increasing of batch size. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Inventory Competition under Yield Uncertainty ZHANG Jian, ZHANG Ju-liang 2018, 26 (4):  67-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.008 Abstract ( 766 )   PDF (1120KB) ( 691 )   Save Yield uncertainty is an important problem in today's competitive market. In many industries such as the cell phone and the equipment manufacturing industry, random yield has large impact on production process of component suppliers or original equipment manufacturers. Therefore, yield uncertainty will results in a random shortage of manufacturer's actual output and the loss of its regular customers. Customers who prefer to buy some product may switch to buy another substitute, if they find what they prefer unavailable on the shelf. So, inventory competition under yield uncertainty is very important problem faced by firms.The multi-period duopoly inventory games problem under yield uncertainty is addressed in this paper. Two firms sell two substitutable products in multi-periods, respectively, and some unsatisfied customers will switch to buy another productif one of them is out of store. In each period, they are competing for substitute demand by make their order decisions. The existence of the Nash equilibrium is proved, its structure is characterized and the impact of the yield uncertainty and substitution rate on the Nash Equilibrium is discussed. It is found that yield uncertainty results in multiplicity of Nash equilibrium. We give conditions under which the equilibrium is unique are given. Furthermore, we show that the equilibrium order quantity is increasing in the substitution rate, and the firm with lower yield uncertainty can earn more profit.Numerical experiments are conducted to study the impact of the substation rate and supply reliability on the firms' order quantities and profits. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A T-type Replenishment Strategy for Optimizing Logistics Operations of Retail Industry TIAN Xin, LUO Chun-lin, WANG Shou-yang, CHEN Qing-hong, LU Mei-hong 2018, 26 (4):  78-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.009 Abstract ( 889 )   PDF (4391KB) ( 796 )   Save At present, large and medium-sized retail logistics centers adopt three-dimensional shelves to enhance warehouse capacity, with hundreds of thousands of freight lots in different sizes. Each day, they need to handle the operations of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of Stock Keeping Units (SKUs). How to store these goods rationally and to replenish them to the picking lots efficiently are the key factors influencing the operational efficiency of the logistics centers.In computer science and management science, there are many approaches to store and replenish the products, but these methods are hard to implement in reality, especially when the number of SKUs is huge.Based on the virtual business theory, a brand new T-type replenishment strategy, i.e., taking the fixed picking lots as the base points, putting the storing good son shelves in T-shape and replenishing the goods is proposed to the picking lots with the "first in, first out" rule and the "closer and more priority" principle. Compared with the conventional replenishment strategy, the T-type replenishment strategy not only pays attention to the distances between the picking lot and the storing lots for a single commodity, but also emphasizes overall reasonableness of the storage of goods. The T-type replenishment strategy is a simple search algorithm that integrates easiness-to-implement, low operational cost and quick response capability, which can reduce storage and replenishment operations to achieve efficiency and profit growth.Comparing the operations data of a retailing firm in Shanghai, which is one of the top 100 retailing firms, before and after implementing the T-type replenishment strategy, it is found that the logistics operation efficiency has been greatly improved. The T-type replenishment strategy has been successfully applied by a batch of large-scale retailing logistics centers in the practice of information transformation, and significantly increased their economic benefits, which helps promote the commercial development and social progress in our country. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Research of Supply Chain Finance Model Based on ACC Payment ZHANG Chong, YUAN Lan-lan, WANG Hai-yan 2018, 26 (4):  88-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.010 Abstract ( 951 )   PDF (941KB) ( 759 )   Save Objectives:With the intensification of market competition, enterprises are facing a growing number of market risks and financial pressure, shortage of funds will become the norm,which restricts the rapid development of enterprises. Considering the lack of retail funds and randomness of customer demand, an ordering model for deteriorating items that combines supply chain finance and ACC payment (advance payment, cash payment and credit payment) is constructed on the basis of the newsboy model. Methods:The new model gives the specific interest income and interest cost of retailer based on different payment proportionality, payment cycle and order cycle. In addition, it combines with changes in inventory model to obtain the metamorphism cost and opportunity cost. In this model, shaortage is allowed, the sales of the product, financing interest and credit period are also considered, which is under the cooperation of retailers, suppliers and financing institutions. Results:In this paper, the order quantity is set as the independent variable and the minimum expected cost as the objective function. Then it proves the existence and reliability of the optimal solution and gives the calculation method of the optimal solution.Conclusions:The study shows that the retailer will adjust the order quantity with the increase and decrease of the optimal order quantity and the minimum expected cost, so as to avoid the risk of oversupply.And the supplier can adjust the payment ratio appropriately to let the retailer share the risk of bad debts and commodity deterioration. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Collaborative Manufacturing Scheduling based on Improved Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm with Time Window Constraint TANG Liang, HE Jie, JING Ke, JIN Zhi-hong 2018, 26 (4):  97-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.011 Abstract ( 775 )   PDF (1790KB) ( 810 )   Save Since the collaborative and cooperative manufacturing mode is gaining popularity, which has the merit of utilizing superior resources in collaborative factories to improve production efficiency, thus it becomes important to do the study on scheduling in collaborative manufacturing mode. In a collaborative manufacturing mode, there are multiple processing paths that forming the collaborative manufacturing networks, and thus the corresponding networks are dynamic and changable. Additionally, different type products belong to different type collaborative manufacturing networks and this makes our model more complex. In light of that, four general types of collaborative manufacturing networks Gp are constructed and discussed, including balance type network, bottleneck type network, jump type network, and hybrid type network. Some pramaters of scheduling model are also designed to make problem more reasable, i.e., production cost function, earliest delivery time tfk and latest delivery time tlk. An objective function composed of processing costs Wcm, inventory costs Wsk(Qk, T'k), and the two penalty costs of early completion costs Wsk(Qk, T″k) and tardiness costs Wlk(Qk, T'″k) is then constructed. In order to solve our model, an improved ant colony optimization algorithm is presented, into which the Monte Carlo algorithm is incorporated. In particular, the upper confidence bound zi is used to guide the ant selection. Meanwhile, a moving window award mechanism[min, max] is also designed to improve award criteria. Given that the expectation window moves frequently with the increase of simulation, and thus the credible level of expectation window increases. In view of this, the fixed pheromone concentration should multiply a balance coefficient k(N) as the award value to improve the rewards credibility. The simulation results show that our designed model is reasonable and practical. Meanwhile, our proposed algorithm has fast solving speed, good convergence and stability. Our research work is benefit for enterprise scheduling in collaborative manufacturing mode. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Growth Patterns and Characteristics of Start-up Online Sellers Based on Trajectory and Volatility Analyses HE Yu-mei, GUO Xun-hua, CHEN Guo-qing 2018, 26 (4):  108-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.013 Abstract ( 857 )   PDF (2526KB) ( 698 )   Save Online start-ups are the engines of growth, innovation, and wealth creation on electronic marketplaces. Although it is expected that the growth patterns of online start-up swill be different from their offline counterparts, the extant research has not paid sufficient attention to this unique group of firms. In this paper, the typical growth patterns and characteristics of start-up online sellers are explored.Drawing upon Penrose's growth theory, it is theorized that start-up online sellers' growth pattern can be conceptualized by the growth trajectory and the growth volatility. Moreover, their choice of product categories will also shape their growth patterns, leading to diverse performance.Based on a longitudinal clustering analysis, three types of growth trajectories are identified, namely "accelerating", "constant", and "decelerating". Consolidating with the volatility levels(high/low), typology of six types of growth patterns is formulated. The Chi-square test shows that the growth patterns are significantly associated with both the sellers'product types (search/experience good), initial product categories, and their primary product categories. In addition, the ANOVA and Kruskal-Walls analyses show that seller performance (sales and rating levels) significantly differs between growth patterns. The "accelerating/high volatility" sellers' performance is the most prominent distinctive one.Our findings contribute to firm growth pattern research by exploring the context of online start-ups. Moreover, our work provides implications for e-commerce platforms to evaluate the start-up online sellers and supportspecialized service according to their growth patternp/> References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Individual Investor or Institutional Investor, Who Dominates Asset Pricing in Chinese A-share Stock Market? LIU Yan, ZHU Hong-quan 2018, 26 (4):  120-130.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.014 Abstract ( 924 )   PDF (3548KB) ( 617 )   Save In the mature capital market, the institutional investors have been regarded as an important factor in asset pricing. In China, the proportion of individual investors is more than 99.6%. An individual investor or an institutional investor, who has more influence on A-share stock?The answer is becoming important in asset pricing efficiency in Chinese A-share stock market. The investors' heterogeneous belief is one of the key factors in asset pricing. In this paper, the individual investors' unexpected trading volume (HBR_I) and the institutional investors' unexpected trading volume (HBR_B) are employed as proxies for heterogeneous belief, and uncovers the relationship between the two proxies and stock returns in Chinese A-share stock market. The result shows that stock returns are more significantly related to the individual investor unexpected trading volume than the institutional investors' unexpected trading volume even if considering the factors of size, book-to-market and short-sale constraint. Our findings suggest that the individual investors' heterogeneous beliefs can explain the stock return effectively in Chinese A-share stock markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Simulation of the Integrated Level and the Adequacy of Basic Pension System Based on Evolutionary Game YANG Yi-fan, ZHOU Wei-min 2018, 26 (4):  131-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.015 Abstract ( 925 )   PDF (2005KB) ( 781 )   Save How to increase the adequacy and elevate overall planning level of pension system impede the reform process. By reflecting the dynamic process between the central government, local governments and firms, institutional origin in pension reforms is revealed, public choice theory and evolutionary game theory are combined, the integrated level of pension system is defined, and a promoted Predator-Prey Model is used to study how the pension reform in China (increasing the integrated level of pension system) can influence the relationship between central government, local governments and technology firms. It's suggested that increasing the integrated level of basic pension system, reacting positively to aging population, encouraging retirement income diversity and improving management efficiency of the pension system could not only promote a successfully pension reform, but also boost the economy growth. While over-integrated and fast speed of integrating will exceed the capacity of market, thus to lose the efficiency of the policy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Market Microstructure under Ambiguity of Correlation HE Jun-yong, ZHANG Shun-ming 2018, 26 (4):  139-154.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.016 Abstract ( 810 )   PDF (1089KB) ( 528 )   Save Investors' perceived ambiguity of correlation explains the limited participation phenomenon in financial markets from a new perspective. In order to study how to reduce investors' ambiguity from market microstructure design and improve investors' participation, it is assumed that there are two financial markets in the economy:Market A with low and Market B with high perceived ambiguity. When the two risky assets are issued in different markets, investors' portfolio selections are different, so are the equilibrium status of the market and the equilibrium prices of the risky assets. Considering the listing costs and benefits, rational corporate managers will choose the market with higher equilibrium prices to issue their shares. In this paper it is found that the changes of factors, such as maximum correlation ambiguity and investor structure, have important influences on firm's listing choice. Thus, it is of great importance to reduce the investors' ambiguity by market microstructure design. Specific characteristics design aimed to enhance market transparency, such as stringent listing standard and adequate information disclosure, can reduce investors' correlation ambiguity and enhance their participation, thereby to improve the market liquidity and make the equilibrium price better reflect its fundamentals. It is also found that it is necessary to establish multi-level capital markets to finance firms with different characteristics. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Statistical InferenceApproach for the Selection of Stochastic Process Based on Back Testing of Out-of-sample Distribution PAN Hui-feng, YUAN Jun, GAO Peng 2018, 26 (4):  155-162.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.017 Abstract ( 710 )   PDF (1277KB) ( 825 )   Save Derivative pricing and risk management are affected by the selection of stochastic process using to describe the asset price. In some literature, the stochastic processes of underlying asset are different, even inconsistent. In this article, a statistic inference approach is put forward to choose the best stochastic process to describe underlying asset from different processes. The approach uses the back testing. Firstly, it divides the data into estimation window and test window, then estimates the parameters of the stochastic process, finally, deduces the out of sample distribution of every asset price in test window under the assumption of fixed parameters. The win ratio about the real data falling on the accepting region is used to judge whether the null hypothesis is true or not. Commodity, exchange rate, interest rate and stock are used as underlying asset. The empirical results reveal that in some circumstance, commonly-used model describing the asset price is not optimal. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ranking Decision Making Units Based on Cross-efficiency and Cooperative Game LIU Wen-li, WANG Ying-ming, LV Shu-long 2018, 26 (4):  163-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.018 Abstract ( 965 )   PDF (905KB) ( 609 )   Save In data envelopment analysis (DEA), the cross-efficiency evaluation is an effective method for ranking decision making units (DMUs), which is performed with peer-evaluation and self-evaluation. From different points of view, various secondary goals have been proposed such as the aggressive model and the benevolent model. Yet different secondary goal models lead to different cross-efficiency evaluation. In this paper, the cooperative game theory is used to choose the secondary goal model between the targeted aggressive model and the targeted benevolent model and then evaluate all DMUs. Specifically, it is assumed that a cooperative game is developed among all DMUs. Given a coalition of some DMUs, a DMU in this coalition will make the best appraisal of each DMU in the same coalition based on the targeted benevolent model, and choose the targeted aggressive model to evaluate the other DMUs which do not belong to the coalition. Further, each DMU is evaluated with its Shapley value in the cooperative game. Finally, an example is presented to show that the proposed method can make full use of the minimum cross-efficiency and the maximum cross-efficiency and it is a comprehensive, fair and reasonable ranking method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Real-time Monitoring and Control of the Critical Chain Project ZHANG Jun-guang, WAN Dan 2018, 26 (4):  171-179.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.019 Abstract ( 750 )   PDF (2632KB) ( 556 )   Save It is well accepted that buffer management holds great significance to critical chain project management. As one of the core aspects of buffer management, buffer monitoring plays an important role in ensuringthe on-time delivery and providing the project with sufficient protection.The current buffer monitoring methods do not adequately account for the risk characteristics of the project phase and the dynamic association between activities.To solve this defect, a real-time rolling monitoring and control method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method takes into account the uncertainty of the project as well as the relationship between the various activities, and allocates project buffer based on the risk exposure of activities.The calculation of risk exposure index based on uncertainty and the initial buffer allocation on this basis are studied. Then the residual buffer is reallocated according to thedynamicrisk weighting factor of activities based on the rolling distribution monitoring model, and two monitoring thresholds are set andadjusted dynamically according to actual buffer consumption during project execution. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation experiment is carried out to compare the proposed method with the current methods.The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can effectively reduce wrong warnings and the extra cost and time caused by the wrong warnings, signifying that it can greatly improve the on-time completion of the project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of the Duration-fixed Mega Construction Project MOU Qiang, JIA Guang-she 2018, 26 (4):  180-187.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.020 Abstract ( 716 )   PDF (1614KB) ( 553 )   Save The existing cost estimation models within the Earned Value Management (EVM) framework can not be well applied to mega construction projects (MCPs) with fixed duration.Firstly, the estimated total time (T2) for all authorized work was estimated using earned schedule-based method, and the compressed duration was calculated by ΔT=T2-T0 at time t0.Secondly,the Convex-exponential Time-cost function was used to estimate duration compressed cost (DCC), and the Gompertz Growth Model (GGM) was used to estimate the uncompressed EAC. On this basis, the estimation model for estimate at completion (EAC) of MCPs with fixed duration was proposed.Finally, taking the subproject of an airport project as a case, four basic estimation methods of traditional EVM and the improved estimation method were used to estimate its EAC respectively, and development trend of estimated deviations and their reasons for EACs of each model was systematically analyzed. The comparison results showed that the improved estimation method is more suitable for MCPs with fixed duration. The cost estimation model of this study improves the forecasting ability of traditional methods to estimate EAC within EVM framework, which is of practical significance to guide the MCPs with tight schedule in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Directors' and Officers' Liability can Enhance the Corporate Value? Based on the Perspective of Corporate Governance WU Yong, LI Qian, ZHU Wei-dong 2018, 26 (4):  188-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.04.021 Abstract ( 850 )   PDF (1450KB) ( 969 )   Save Directors' and officers' liability insurance(D&O insurance) as an important hedging tools for corporate governance can improve corporate performance, however may lead to moral hazard which impairs firm values at the same time. China's special institutional environment may lead to the listed companies in China for the purchase motivation and economic consequences of liability insurance and the western developed countries have significant differences.Whether the D&O insurance which participate in corporate governance can produce positive economic consequences, and significantly enhance the value of enterprises, but also to be tested by empirical evidence.In order to further explore the mechanism influence of D&O insurance on corporate value, the data of listed company in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market from 2007 to 2015 are analyzed.The variables of the decision making of D&O insurance may also affect the value of the company, ignoring the endogenous problem will lead to the error of the estimation result. After controlling sample self-selection bias,the propensity score matching method is used to study the influence of the D&O insurance purchase decision on the value of the company. Whether it is financial or accounting performance to measure the value of the company, Empirical evidence indicates that purchasing D&O insurancepolicy can significantly improve corporate value.The research results reveal the comprehensive governance effect of D&O insurance, and provide the empirical evidence of the impact of D&O insurance on corporate value in the transitional economy. References | Related Articles | Metrics