水环境安全评价方法及其在京津冀地区的应用

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.03.017

Abstract

Abstract: To overcome the disadvantages of weight selection and information missing in the evaluation, an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proposed in this paper. First, the combined weight model which is based on entropy method, grey relational analysis method and principal component analysis is established. Then, with the weighted average principle, a technique of synthetic grade is introduced to evaluate the result. Our improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method can avoid the impact of subjective factors on the determination of weights of the indexes and reflect the contribution of every index to the evaluation result more objectively. Jing-Jin-Ji region is now threatened by the increasingly serious water environmental security problems which adversely affects human health and imposes a limit on social and economic development. Based on this background, it is of practical and theoretical significance to study the water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region and explore effective control measures, which is a major task of realizing Jing-Jin-Ji integration. In this paper, an evaluation index system of water environment security is initially established from three respects:economic society, water quality and resource conditions, which included 17 indicators. Then the principal component analysis method is applied to screen the index system, and 13 indexes are selected as final assessment indexes. Based on the screened index system, we apply this improved method to the water environment security assessment in Jing-Jin-Ji region with data from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Annual Water Resources Bulletin during 2006-2014. The results show that the water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region became better from 2006 to 2012, then got worse. The order of water environment security in three regions was Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin. Among the 13 indicators, the principal influence factors of water environment security are forest coverage rate, the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, per capital water resources and the proportion of class Ⅰ-Ⅲ water quality. The elasticity coefficient analysis shows that to improve these four factors was also the most effective way in improving water environment security in Jing-Jin-Ji region.

Key words: Jing-Jin-Ji region, water environment security, improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, elasticity coefficient analysis

CLC Number:

X923

LIU Xiu-li, TU Zhuo-zhuo. Assessment Method on Water Environment Security and Its Application in Jing-Jin-Ji Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(3): 160-168.

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Assessment Method on Water Environment Security and Its Application in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

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