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20 February 2018, Volume 26 Issue 2 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Two-factor Asymmetric Realized SV Model and Its Empirical Test WU Xin-yu, LI Xin-dan, MA Chao-qun 2018, 26 (2):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.001 Abstract ( 874 )   PDF (4836KB) ( 637 )   Save Modelling the volatility has attracted a great deal of attention in the literature of financial economics and econometrics. As a measure of risk, volatility modelling is important to researchers, policy makers and regulators as it is closely related to the stability of financial markets, and the SV models are used to model the dynamics of volatility. It has been well-documented in the literature that the volatility exhibits two typical features, namely the asymmetric effects (include leverage and size effects) on volatility caused by previous returns and the long-range dependence in volatility. It is important to accommodate these features in volatility in the SV models. In recent years, high-frequency financial data is available and a number of realized measures of volatility have been introduced, including realized volatility and realized range volatility. These measures are far more informative about the current level of volatility than the daily returns. Standard SV models utilizes daily returns to extract information about the current level of volatility. A shortcoming of conventional SV models is the fact that returns are rather weak signals about the level of volatility. This makes SV models poorly suited for situations where volatility changes rapidly to a new level. Incorporating realized measures into SV models is expected to alleviate this problem. Based on the above analysis, in this paper the two-factor asymmetric realized SV (2FARSV) model is proposed, which incorporates the basic SV model (which uses daily returns) with asymmetric effects (leverage and size effects), long memory property of the volatility and high-frequency intraday information provided by the realized measure by taking account of the realized measure biases. A maximum likelihood estimation method based on the continuous particle filters is used to estimate the parameters of the 2FARSV model. The monte Carlo simulation study shows that the estimation method performs well. The 2FARSV model is appiled to the realized volatility (RV) and realized range volatility (RRV) computed from the high-frequency intraday data of Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange component index. The results show that the RV and RRV are (downward) biased estimators of the true daily volatility. This implies that the effect of non-trading hours is stronger than that of microstructure noise. The RRV is the more effective volatility estimator than the RV, but it leads to more downward bias. In addition, evidence of strong volatility persistence and volatility asymmetry (leverage and size effects) is detected in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. According to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the 2FARSV model fits the data better than the one-factor asymmetric realized SV (1FARSV) model, the two-factor realized SV (2FRSV) model, the two-factor leverage realized SV (2FLRSV) model and the realized GARCH model. Model diagnostics suggest that the 2FARSV model is sufficient to capture the dynamics of the volatility (time-varying volatility, volatility clustering, volatility asymmetry and long memory property of the volatility). This study enriches the empirical research on the volatility modelling based on the high-frequency data.It's also a worthwhile endeavor to further investigate the performance of the 2FARSV model in asset pricing and value-at-risk calculation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination with Strategic Consumer Behavior under the Online To Offline Mode CHEN Zhi-song, FANG Li 2018, 26 (2):  14-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.002 Abstract ( 949 )   PDF (1051KB) ( 846 )   Save In the era of rapid development of mobile electronics and high convenience of mobile payment, Online To Offline(O2O) business mode is increasingly becoming the important direction of transformation and upgrading for the industries of traditional retail, e-commerce and even express logistics, affecting the supply chain operations and its optimization decisions. Strategic consumer behavior under the Online-to-Offline (O2O) mode is different from the traditional mode, and its impact on supply chain operations management and optimization decisions is also different from the traditional mode. Based on the characteristics of O2O mode, using theories of strategic consumer behavior and supply chain optimization and coordination, centralized decision and contract coordination models for supply chain considering the strategy consumer behavior under the O2O mode 1 of ‘online order +offline experience+ offline payment+ self-delivery’, the O2O mode 2 of ‘online browsing +offline experience+ online payment+ offline delivery’, the offline mode and the online mode are developed and analyzed respectively, and the corresponding numerical analysis is implemented, on this basis, the management insights are summarized in this paper. The results show that:(1) Whether under the O2O mode 1 of ‘online order +offline experience+ offline payment+ self-delivery’ or under the O2O mode 2 of ‘online browsing +offline experience+ online payment+ offline delivery’, whether under the online mode or under the offline mode, a revenue sharing contract mechanism can effectively achieve the supply chain coordination under the strategic customer behavior. (2) Comparing two types of O2O mode with two-types of non-O2O mode, it is showed that O2O mode 1 and O2O mode 2 can bring more profit to the supply chain and its members, while pure online mode and pure offline mode can bring higher utility to strategic customers. (3) Setting higher subsidies and lower discount prices under the O2O mode is beneficial for improving the operations performance of the supply chain and its members. (4) Improving the utility from the actual experience of product and the corresponding service under the O2O mode, is beneficial for improving the operations performance of the supply chain and its members, and also is beneficial for improving the net utility of strategic customers. This research has strong academic value and innovation significance on the area of the impact of strategic consumer behavior on the supply chain coordination under the O2O mode, and provides theoretical support and decision-making reference for supply chain decision-makers correctly understanding the strategic consumer behavior under the O2O mode and making the right decisions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on SaaS Cloud Outsourcing Contract under Unobserved Efficiency Parameter TANG Guo-feng, AI Xing-zheng, DAN Bin, LI Dan 2018, 26 (2):  25-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.003 Abstract ( 761 )   PDF (724KB) ( 430 )   Save There exists moral hazard caused by unobserved efficiency parameter of CSP when customer enterprise is carrying out SaaS(Software as a Service) cloud outsourcing. Focused on this problem, to maximize the expected profit of customer enterprise, the outsourcing incentive mechanism is designed based on incentive mechanism design method to induce CSP to show real information and pay the optimal effort level under the circumstance of service output is the public information,but the efficiency parameter is private information. The conclusions imply that the optimal effort and service payment are the decreasing function of effectiveness parameter; the optimal contract provided by customer enterprise to CSP can be expressed by linear contract; the efficiency parameter is positively related to the payment of the fixed service payment and is negatively related to revenue sharing coefficient in the linear contract which is composed of the fixed service reward and sharing revenue. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Combination of Dual Sourcing and Backup Production with Updated Information XU Hong-yan, HUANG He, ZENG Neng-min 2018, 26 (2):  33-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.004 Abstract ( 836 )   PDF (1552KB) ( 561 )   Save Dual sourcing and backup production are two operational strategies that firms most commonly use to mitigate supply risk. In this paper, the updating of information on supplier reliability is considered, and the firm strategic use of dual sourcing and backup options in two stages are examined. In the first stage the firm orders from one or two unreliable primary suppliers, and then in the second stage decides whether to order from a backup supplier with complete reliability contingent on the updated information. The optimal sourcing and ordering decisions of the firm are completely characterized in the two stages. When there is no backup option, the firm prefers dual sourcing to single sourcing if the fixed procurement cost is low. When there is the backup option, the optimal procurement strategy depends on the market potential. Under low fixed procurement cost, the results show that when the market potential is small, dual sourcing excludes backup options from the sourcing strategy due to the high cost of backup; when the market potential is large, dual sourcing and backup production coexist to satisfy the high demand; when the market potential is moderate, dual sourcing may be excluded by backup production, and the two may also contingently coexist. Furthermore, when the market potential is moderate, the firm tends to exercise the backup option rather than using dual sourcing, especially when the probability of reliability improvement increases or the backup cost decreases. Contingent coexistence of both dual sourcing and backup production becomes more likely when reliability improvement probability decreases, fixed procurement cost decreases or backup cost increases. In summary, the choice between exclusive and coexistence of dual sourcing and backup production balances the profit loss from over ordering, the fixed procurement cost and the additional production cost of backup. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study of Service Pricing with Unfairness Averse Customers LIU Jian, ZHAO Hong-kuan, LIU Si-feng 2018, 26 (2):  46-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.005 Abstract ( 836 )   PDF (1650KB) ( 642 )   Save Pricing and Queuing Mechanism Design is critical to enterprise operations.The enterprises often adopt classification of services through setting priority due to the different waiting cost of customer. While, the regular customers will get unfairness aversion psychology because their waiting time is longer (W2>W1) than the waiting time of priority customers. The innovation of this paper is that the above unfairness aversion psychology is conidered that caused by comparison will bring negative service utility α(W2-W1) for regular customers and change their service utility, which caues the flow of customers (customers select the regular service or priority service based on their total service utility) and influencing the enterprise revenue and social cost. In this paper, the relations between customer unfairness aversion psychology(use unfairness aversion parameter α to denote) and enterprise revenue and social cost are studied,respectively.On the basis, whether the monopolistic service enterprises should adopt priority services and the service pricing is discussed. By optimizing the objective functions and analyzing the relationship between the unfairness aversion parameter and the optimized results, following conclusions are drawn.From the perspective of enterprise revenue maximizing or social cost minimizing, enterprises should adopt the classification of services and charge priority service fee when unfairness aversion psychology is weaker. When unfairness aversion psychology is stronger, from the perspective of enterprise revenue maximizing, to retain only priority customers and charge priority service fee is optimal. From the perspective of social cost minimizing, the enterprises should cancel the classification of services, retain only regular customers and charge no priority service fee. Enterprise managers can consider the above management insights as a reference and choose the optimal service mechanism and pricing strategy with the change of customer unfairness aversion psychology. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Price and Time Decision of Service Provider on O2O Model ZHOU Xiong-Wei, WANG Miao-Rong, XU Chen 2018, 26 (2):  54-61.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.006 Abstract ( 738 )   PDF (1116KB) ( 615 )   Save With the rapid development of e-commerce and mobile commerce, more and more consumers are accustomed to online shopping. Online consumers can book and pay on enterprise website, mobile client or a third party website, and then go to physical store to accept their services by electronic bill. O2O (online to offline) channel is defined as consumer to complete the transaction channel by online payment and offline experience. The Situation that Service providers combine online operation of O2O channel is called the O2O model. Whether the service provider who owns physical channel should open O2O channel and how to price is investigated and the service level if the O2O channel has been open is determined. The utility function through waiting time of physical store and the price difference of physical store and O2O channels are analyzed, and study on selection strategy, pricing strategy and time strategy of the service provider whether she open O2O channels or not are studied. First, considering the impact of waiting time of physical channel on consumers' utility, the consumer channel choice model is built, and service provider' channel strategy and pricing strategy have been gotten when the service provider has pricing power. The results show that the level of time sensitivity of consumers is higher than the level of price sensitivity. Secondly, the price is taken as a constant and the impact of waiting time on the cost of the service providers is considered, and the channel and service lever strategy under the condition that the service provider has no price power is studied. The results show that the service provider open two channels simultaneously on condition that both the price of O2O channel and the time cost of physical channel are low. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Robust Optimization Model of Supply Chain Based on EVA and Operational Risk Breference YU Li-ping, LIN Li-feng, QIU Ruo-zhen 2018, 26 (2):  62-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.007 Abstract ( 850 )   PDF (1723KB) ( 565 )   Save Creating shareholder value is commonly considered as the paramount business goal, which depends on the performance model and risk management. The core concept of Economic Value Added (EVA), as a prevalent metric of value-based performance, is capital cost that is uncertain due to the interest of debt and the hurdle rate changing, and thus there is much risk of cash flow in value creation. A major factor causing operational risks is the uncertainty of product demand. In addition, due to the operating leverage, fluctuation of demand may cause more change in operating income, and influence value creation directly. Recent papers show increasing interest in value-based supply chains management. However, these researches neglect the influence of risk preference of decision-makers on EVA, and ignore the corresponding risk from the uncertainty of capital cost. In the multi product and multi stage supply chain that compose of one manufacturer and multiple external suppliers,economic value added (EVA) is regarded as a performance index to reflect the value creation,the management risk preferences of decision makers are considred,and the discrete scenario with known probabilities is adopted to describe the fluctuation of capital costs and demand and uses robust stochastic programming method to establish a robust optimization model of supply chain based on the goal of value creation. The objective function of the model includes three items, the first item is the expected EVA; the second is the product of risk preferences parameter of decision makers with business risk measured operating leverage coefficients; the third is feasible penalty function to punish deviation control constraints. The constraints consider comprehensively the financial constraints associated with supply chain capital flow and the non-financial constraints with supply chain logistics The decision goal hopes to get optimal solution (robust solution) which is feasible (model robust) under any uncertain situation when supply chain performance and risk are optimized comprehensively. Application analysis results show that the model can integrate the performance and risk management, and reduce the influence of uncertain capital cost and demand, obtain the optimal solution with robustness. What is more, the decision maker with high risk averse prefer to give up the larger EVA to maintain a lower business risks. Meantime, the decision makers can choose different weight coefficients to focus on robust solution or model robust, ensure the robustness of supply chain operation and achieve the goal of value creation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Extensive-form Evolutionary Game Analysis on Terrorism Based Mental Model LIU De-hai, CHAI Rui-rui, HAN Cheng-jun 2018, 26 (2):  71-78.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.008 Abstract ( 895 )   PDF (971KB) ( 432 )   Save There are interactive and adaptive evolution courses between the anti-terrorist measures of governments and the attack behaviors of terrorists. Moreover, for a terrorist event, governments and terrorists usually do not take the actions at the same time. In the paper,Stackelberg game model is first built, where governments decide to defense strategies at the first and terrorists decide the attack strategies in the latter. And then, according to the above extensive-form factor game, the extensive-form evolutionary game model about the terrorism attack problem is built. Because the equilibrium analysis of extensive-form evolutionary game model needs to consider the belief learning course at the inter-and intra-generation levels, it causes the complexity of evolutionary analysis. Although the conception of "Wright Manifold" that can be used to analyze the equilibrium solution of extensive-form evolutionary game model has been put forward, the method is difficult to understand and apply. However, if some conventional social norm are considered, the above analytical process can be simplified. Through introduceing the concept of "mental model" into evolutionary game theory, the new analytical method of evolutionary solution based mental model is proposed. For example, given terrorists take the attack strategy, the commonsensible behavior of any governmental forces should be the defense strategy. Thus, the utility functions of terrorists and governments are simplified. The replicator dynamic function of terrorists can be described as dyi/dt=yi·(1-yj)·(-f-c2)<0, where yi is the proportion of terrorists taking attack strategy, t is the evolutionary period, and f and c2 are the terrorists' payoffs. Similarly, the replicator dynamic function of governemnts can be described as dxi/dt=xi·(1-xi)·(yi·b-c1), where xi is the proportion of governments taking defense strategy, and b and c1 are the governments' payoffs. The evolutionary solution based mental model is that terrorists take the no-attack strategy, and whether governments take the defense strategy depends on the terrorists' proportion of taking the attack strategy. Lastly, based on the 6.28 terrorism incident in Moyu County, Xinjiang, the paper compares two evolutionary solutions of Wright Manifold and Mental Model. By introducing the universal accepted social norm into evolutionary analysis, the analytical method based on mental model does not only simplify the course of existed "Wright Manifold" evolutionary analysis method proposed by Cressman (2000), but also demonstrate the more complex and realistic evolutionary characteristics. The new evolutionary solution of mental model has the high application worth. Under the overall trend of the effective control terrorist event, the anti-terrorist measurements of government force should flexibly adjust with the proportional change of terrorists taking the attack strategy. Thus, there is no best or consistent anti-terrorist strategy (evolutionary equilibrium). References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Evolutionary Game Model of the New Energy Vehicle Rental Market Competition HUANG Yi-xiang, PU Yong-jian 2018, 26 (2):  79-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.009 Abstract ( 909 )   PDF (1557KB) ( 633 )   Save Based on the traits of bounded rationality, imitation as well as learning and improvement exists in the "Internet plus Periodic Renting" market competition. In this paper, an evolutionary game model is construted to reveal the mechanism of the car rental company to grab market share. Specifically, recent phenomenon of Price War in taxi-hailing app market is incorporated to analysis the model. A case study is given to demonstrate the interrelationships among action, evolutionary path and evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) in the end. The research shows that there is no pure strategy evolutionarily stable strategy, when the market is under the impact of price war lunched by a company. However, there must be an evolutionary stable state of the hybrid strategy. For companies that are ready to enter the market or want to expand their market share, the best strategy is to lunch a price war. And for companies that are already operating in the market, the best responsive strategy is to cut price.Theoretical explanation is given for the existence of ESS in car-sharing market competition, which offers guaidance on pricing strategy of the car rental company. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Analysis of Chinese Stock Volatile Risk Factors based on Mixture Distribution WANG An-xing, TAN Xian-ming 2018, 26 (2):  86-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.010 Abstract ( 748 )   PDF (1126KB) ( 447 )   Save GARCH models have been widely used in modeling financial time series that exhibit time-varying volatility clustering. In this study, the model-based clustering approach is employed to examine clusters of 1165 stocks on Chinese security market on the basis of the estimated GARCH model parameters. It is found that the 1165 stocks could be divided into 4 clusters:cluster 1 consists of stocks with abnormal volatility features, while for stocks in the other three clusters. The distributions of the GARCH parameters have a similar shape but with different values.Stocks of manufacturing companies and decentralized non-state-owned companies are more likely in the cluster with low volatility.Stocks of public utility companies (electricity, gas, water supply)and real-estate companies are more likely in the cluster with high volatility. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Influence of China's Iron Ore Futures Market: An Empirical Analysis Based on VEC-SVAR Models HU Zhen-hua, ZHONG Dai-li, WANG Huan-fang 2018, 26 (2):  96-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.011 Abstract ( 974 )   PDF (3118KB) ( 477 )   Save As a fundamental metal resource bulk commodity, iron ore is indispensable for national development. Although being the biggest iron ore importing country in the world, China has been incurring enormous economic loss in the past decades due to lack of iron ore international pricing power. In recent years, the financialization trend of iron ore market has been more prominent owing to the change of iron ore pricing mechanism. Therefore, the construction and development of futures market becomes an important way to promote iron ore international pricing power at the present stage. To study the pricing influence of the emerging China's iron ore futures market and evaluate its effect on the promotion of China's iron ore international pricing power, from the perspective of futures market's functions, an example from iron ore prices of DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures), and CSI (China Iron Ore Spot Price Index) and TSI (The Steel Index)is taken, and relevant historical intraday data from October 2013 to March 2016 is selected, in order to make an empirical analysis of the dynamic co-movement and leading relation between China's iron ore futures price and both domestic & international spots prices. The empirical analysis is based on VEC-SVAR models as the core research method and combined with the methods of cointegration test and directed acyclic graphs. The results show that:there are high-level correlation and long-term equilibrium between China's iron ore futures price and both domestic & international spots prices. China's iron ore futures market has the function of risk aversion, and can be used for hedging to transfer market risk. However, it still does not have effective function of price discovery or pricing influence, and cannot play a decisive and leading role in the pricing formation of both domestic & international spots markets. Moreover, it does not improve the international pricing power of China substantially. The international iron ore spots price indexes, represented by TSI, have absolute domination in pricing power, however, the possibility of price manipulation may be hidden in the high-level price independence and opaque compilation process. The research of this paper fills the insufficiency of the research field, which is about the international pricing influence of China's iron ore futures market, and extends the research perspectives of iron ore international pricing power from the perspective of futures market. The findings have significant reference value to the further development and improvement of China's iron ore futures market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Variable Mean and Variance of Asset Allocation Model in Chinese Market WU Wen-sheng, SHENG Shi-jie, HAN Qi-heng 2018, 26 (2):  107-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.012 Abstract ( 874 )   PDF (1200KB) ( 438 )   Save The allocation of asset which is reasonable and effective will increase investors' wealth, and promote their consumption. This will give impetus to the development of social economy. As is known to all, the asset structure is determined by the choice of asset allocation strategy. Moreover, the constraint of borrowing and policy restriction also have significant influence on asset allocation. Based on previous research, 10 typical asset allocation strategies under the frame of Mean-Variance Model are chosen, including equity weight strategy, improved mean-variance strategies, improved Bayesian models, and improved CAPM strategies. In this paper, these asset allocation strategies using actual data of 5 categories of most common assets in Chinese capital market are studied, which contains stocks, debts, funds, gold and real assets ranging from 2000 to 2015. All performance of these 10 strategies with and without the constraint of borrowing is also studied and compared. The empirical results with the actual asset allocations of Chinese investors are compared, and the drawbacks and unreasonable respects of the real allocations are pointed out. The result provides some corresponding improvement suggestions. The empirical results of this paper show that since the estimation error is the largest in the capital market, the performance of theoretical optimal asset allocation is not as good as the performance of equity weight strategy. In the meanwhile, the optimal asset allocation is dominant to the equity weight strategy in the case of financial market because the estimation error is the smallest. Furthermore, the constraint of borrowing will restrain the effect of asset allocation strategies, especially in the case that gold and real assets are all included in our investment scope. First, the current investment scope of Chinese investors is too small. Investment diversification can not only increase the effect of asset allocation, but also promote the development of the market. Second, the constraint of borrowing indeed restrain the abnormal fluctuation of the market in the short term, and it will affect the asset allocation and the development of the market negatively in the long term. So the government should relax restriction, introduce more investment products and increase market depth and elasticity to attract and guide more investors into the market. In the last part of this paper, the performance of the strategies of mean-variance and equity weight is analyzed by using the data of 4 kinds of common assets and employing the method of Monte Carlo Simulation. The result makes a further support to our previous conclusion. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Volatility Co-movement of Various Stock Markets based on High-frequency Data LUO Jia-wen, CHEN Lang-nan 2018, 26 (2):  116-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.013 Abstract ( 886 )   PDF (4630KB) ( 487 )   Save The financial globalization facilitates the flow of capital and good across the countries, and thus improves the operational efficiency of the financial markets. At the same time, the financial globalization enhances the risk transmission and thus leads to high volatility of financial markets.Therefore, the co-movement of financial markets is an important issue for risk managements, asset pricing and portfolio management. A MHAR-DCC model with a Markov regime switching structure is developed to investigate the volatility co-movement of stock markets by employingthe high-frequency data from the six major stock markets in the world from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2013. The structural changes in co-volatility are identifed by introducing an exogenous stochastic component that follows a Markov regime switching process. There are more and longer-duration break periods identified by the model with the normal distribution as compared to that with the student-t distribution. In addition, the positive impact that scales up the covariance dominates the breakdown periods.There exhibit significantly positive correlations between the stock market within the same geographyregions as well as significantly positive correlations between the US stock market and the other markets, indicating the leading position of the US stock market in the co-movement of world stock markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Contract Revision of Cooperation of Multi-stage Mobile Application Product and Service under Incomplete Information ZHANG Xu-mei, REN Ting-hai, ZHOU Mao-sen, DAN Bin 2018, 26 (2):  126-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.014 Abstract ( 735 )   PDF (2319KB) ( 480 )   Save In a product and service supply chain (PSSC) consisting of an ERP vendor, an APP vendor and a customer enterprise with incomplete information, adverse selection and moral hazard problems exist in the collaboration between the ERP vendor and the APP vendor when they provide an ERP product service system (PSS) to the customer enterprise jointly. The ERP vendor provides advanced software development technology and industry solution in the development of the ERP system while the APP vendor provides mobile application based on the ERP function to the ERP vendor. The ERP vendor sells the ERP product service system to the customer enterprise and both the ERP vendor and the APP vendor provide after-sales service to the customer enterprise jointly. Specifically, the APP vendor provides the maintenance and upgrading services of the APP system while the ERP vendor provides the maintenance, upgrading and secondary development services of the ERP system. To analyze how the product and service quality, performance of the PSSC system and profit of the ERP vendor are affected when the APP vendor chooses to conceal or reveal its capacity information, a model of two-stage dynamic game is constructed. Moreover, a single stage contract based on information disclosure and revenue sharing and a two-phase contract with contract revision are put forward in this paper and values of two contracts are compared. It is found that the ERP vendor can identify the APP vendor's capacity information through the observation of the APP vendor's contract menu selection during the product development phase and thus revises the contract based on available information during the service stage. This can help improve the product and service quality and reduce the risk of the ERP vendor, leading to the improvement of channel profits and achievement of Pareto improvement. Finally, numerical examples are provided to inspect and illustrate the research conclusions. In summary, the collaboration problem of multi-stage mobile application product service system with information upgrading and contract revision under incomplete information is researched, and theoretical guidance and decision-making basis are provided for enterprises to implement mobile management pattern. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Strategies of Warranty Period and Warranty Service Expenses for Inferior Durable Goods Enterprise WANG Yan, TAN De-qing 2018, 26 (2):  142-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.015 Abstract ( 723 )   PDF (2627KB) ( 606 )   Save In practice, more and more durable goods manufacturers take use of warranty service to obtian the competitive advantage. Manufacturers provide warranty service for consumers who buy durable goods. Price, warranty period and warranty service expense are the main factors influencing manufactuer's profits, due to product warranty services affecting the consumer's utility. Duopoly firms provide the same durable goods with different quality in the market.Product failure is random and subject to exponential function. Duopoly firms provide free reparation service within warranty period. In this paper' price is defined as the decision variable, and the differential game model is constructed to discuss the effect of unit product warranty service expenses and quality period on the equilibrium price for duopoly firms. And then how the inferior manufacturer achieves the same price with the high quality manufacturer through warranty period strategy is analyzed and warranty service strategy is analyzed. Results indicate that the higher the unit product warranty service expenses of duopoly firms and the longer the warranty period,the equilibrium price is higher.But the relationship between the consumer utility influence coefficient and unit product warranty service expenses affects the change of competitor's equilibrium price.The inferior manufacturer providing low quality products makes use of the strategies of increasing unit product warranty service expenses and extending warranty period to realize the same price with the high quality manufacturers under the equilibrium. In addition,the effects of different strategies of the inferior manufacturer on warranty cost are compared, and it is found out that the strategy of increasing unit product warranty service expenses is better than extending warranty period strategy. Finally, numerical analysis are used to further verify the effectiveness of the conclusion. So this paper not only provides theoretical guidance for manufacturers to implement warranty service, but also extends the scope of warranty service research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Resilient Operation and Promotion Strategy of OEM Supply Chain under Supply Disruption Risk KONG Fan-hui, LI Jian 2018, 26 (2):  152-159.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.016 Abstract ( 893 )   PDF (1738KB) ( 509 )   Save Because the OEM supply chain may face greater disruption risk than ordinary supply chain, in this paper, the elasticity operation and promotion strategy for OEM supply chain are mainly studied. OEM supply chain resilient operation problem is described as a multivariable coupling control model, constructing the resilient control system of variable structure, researching the impact of supply chain resilient interaction mechanism undersupply disruption risk. On this basis, a kind of deep learning mechanism is put forward to improve the flexibility of OEM supply chain. This algorithm can improve the performance of OEM supply chain more than the traditional BP neural network. The results show that:when the supply disruption occurs, the deep learning algorithm can effectively enhance the OEM supply chain flexibility, and it can reduce the pecuniary loss of the enterprise to the maximum extent. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Fresh Degree Incentive Mechanism of Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain Based on Consumer Utility CAO Yu, LI Ye-mei, WAN Guang-yu 2018, 26 (2):  160-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.017 Abstract ( 837 )   PDF (3063KB) ( 655 )   Save With continuous improvement of consumers' living standards,consumers' demand for food safety has converted into the demand of both safety and high quality. Food fresh degree is widely arising consumers' concern. Changes in consumers' demand for fresh food makes a great many retailers and suppliers increasingly concerned about perishable goods and strengthen the management of fresh food supply chain. However, as a result of the attributes of perishable food itself and the lagging development of cold chain logistics technology, its management result is far from expectation. According to the data of CECRC, the loss rate of fruits and vegetables reaches 30% per year, which causes around billions yuan per year. Based on the statement above, the improvement of whole fresh degree on fresh supply chain is chosen as research topic. The fresh degree advancement is of great significance to reduce waste, as well as improve the overall profitability of the supply chain and social welfare. The supply chain system composed of two suppliers and one retailer is maninly studied based on the consumer utility theory. The fresh degree incentive model of fresh agricultural products under single cycle is constructed. In the model, supplier is the leader. With the Stackelberg game method, manufactures' optimal pricing and optimal freshness effort selection strategy under the equilibrium state are obtained. Results show that supplier, retailer profit and consumer price sensitivity coefficient are in reverse change. In the price competition market, the degree of preservation effort, profit and price substitution factor of the supplier show a reverse change. In the fresh degree competition market, the degree of preservation effort and profit, with the substitution rate of fresh degree change in the same direction. Based on research conclusions, manufacturers and the government should cooperate to guide the consumer's consumption concept jointly, reduce the moral hazard caused by information asymmetry as far as possible and avoid the phenomenon of Gresham. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Coordination and Optimization of Three-echelon Agricultural Product Supply Chain Considering Freshness-keeping Effort and Quantity/Quality Elasticity MA Xue-li, WANG Shu-yun, JIN Hui, BAI Qing-guo 2018, 26 (2):  175-185.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.018 Abstract ( 876 )   PDF (2798KB) ( 514 )   Save Due to the seasonal characteristics of most fresh agricultural products, most farmer sprefer to preserve a certain quantity of the products in the third-party logistics providers(TPLP) to balance demand or to achieve added value. The three-echelon supply chain that is composed of suppliers, TPLP and retailers has been the main supply mode of seasonal supplied fresh agricultural products. However, slow-moving events of such products that result from inefficient supply chain coordination occur frequently in recent years. So the research on coordination mechanism of the three-echelon supply chain of fresh agricultural products is of great significance to promote the healthy development of the fresh agricultural industry. In this paper, the coordination of a three-echelon supply chain consisting of famers, TPLP and retailers is considered.Both the quantity loss and quality loss are viewed as the endogenous variables of the freshness-keeping effort decided by TPLP. The farmers decide on the quantity of products to be preserved in TPLP and the wholesale price based on market demand, production cost and freshness-keeping cost. The retailerspurchase from TPLP and determine the selling price by taking into accountproduct freshness and wholesale price. It is assumed that the three supply chain members are facing the common market and all information is shared through the supply chain, dynamic game models under both decentralized decision mode and centralized decision mode are established to study the coordination mechanism of the three-echelon supply chain. By comparing the optimal decision model in decentralized and centralized system, reasons for supply chain profit loss and distortion of order quantity and selling price are analyzed. For the two transaction processes in the three-echelon supply chain system, through analysis of major influencing factors in the supply chain system, coordination contract based on cost and revenue sharing is designed. Our analysis stresses three important results. First, it is found that the optimal freshness-keeping effort in the centralized system is the same with the effort in the decentralized system. Second, the major reason for slow-moving is the high freshness-keeping cost for that it will increase the product supply cost, especially for the product with higher quantity elasticity. So the coordination mechanism should focus on reducing product supply cost. The coordination can be ensured by cost and revenue sharing. Finally, the coordination effect of the incentive mechanism is mainly related to the price-elasticity. Some computational studies are conducted to investigate the impacts of quantity and quality elasticity on the optimal decisions in both decentralized and centralized system, and the effect of revenue sharing coefficient on coordinated supply chain member's expected profit, as well as the impact of price-elasticity on coordination effect. The results indicate that the designed mechanism can make efficient coordination for the three-echelon fresh agricultural supply chain within the effective range of revenue sharing coefficient. Our contribution lies in how to design appropriate mechanism to coordinate the three-echelon fresh agricultural supply chain, in a situation where both product quantity and quality depend on freshness-keeping effort and the market demand is affected by freshness, price and some random factors.The results of this paper can provide guidelines for the government to develop more efficient agricultural supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Service Sciences and Innovations Related Research Issues in Network Environment HUA Zhong-sheng, WEI Jiang, ZHOU Wei-hua, YANG Yi, ZHANG Wei 2018, 26 (2):  186-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.02.019 Abstract ( 946 )   PDF (1539KB) ( 689 )   Save Service development and on novation based on the network environment has become a new engine of the economic growth. In this paper, the characteristics of service in the network environment are first analyzed, and then the impacts of the Internet and big data on the research of service science and innovation is discussed. To meet the great social needs in China, three basic scientific problems in the future research of service science are proposed,which include the connotation and measurement of service value, elements and value generation of service resources and definition and formation of service relations. Four important research orientations of service innovation, i.e., the formation and evolution of service ecosystem, organization and coordination of service resources,association and integration of services, and operations management of social services,are also presented. Among further analysis in four important research areas, the organization and integration of heterogeneous data service resource is taken as an example to illustrate a specific problem of organizing and coordinating of service resources, and the difficulties of existing research methods are elaborated to solve the problem, and future research focuses are presented,and take the service pricing problem based on value and relationship in platform services are further taken as an example to show the research challenges on service association and integration and the possible future research directions. References | Related Articles | Metrics