随机环境下房地产企业的多周期投资与定价联合决策

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.2072

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of global industrial and supply chains， multiple stochastic factors such as input prices （such as steel， cement， etc.）， wage costs （including management and labor costs during the construction process）， financing costs （such as interest rates）， and demand are considered to construct a multi cycle investment and pricing joint decision-making model for real estate enterprises. Using stochastic processes to characterize the volatility of input prices， wage costs， and financing costs， incorporating them into a decision model with stochastic demand， and providing an evaluation mechanism for risk and reliability. The research conclusion indicates that， firstly， when the interactive effect of fluctuations in input prices， wage costs， and financing costs shows a downward trend， enterprises should increase their investment to obtain greater expected profits； When the three are irreducible traversal Markov chains， the downward risk of the model has good stability； Decision makers can predict the trend of cost increases in the future cycle through the wear and tear evaluation mechanism， in order to select the best supplier and avoid operational risks. Secondly， analyzing the impact of fluctuations in international factor market prices on corporate profits and the impact of policy uncertainty on corporate costs and optimal strategies， it can be concluded that the greater the volatility risk of both， the higher the cost； Decision makers can explore the long-term operational risks faced by enterprises based on the statistical regularity of international input markets and financing policy fluctuations， in order to provide solid theoretical support for their long-term decision-making. Thirdly， adopting the key hypothesis of flexible decision-making， real estate enterprises dynamically select suppliers for each period under constrained cash flow. The greater the internal fluctuation of each supplier's input quotation， the greater the expected profit the enterprise can obtain， reflecting the value of uncertainty in flexible decision-making.

Key words: multiple random factors, real estate enterprise decision-making, flexible decision-making, risk assessment mechanism

CLC Number:

F293.3

Chao Jiang, Tianyuan Zhang, Xiaohua Xia. Multi Cycle Investment and Pricing Joint Decision-making of Real Estate Enterprises in A Stochastic Environment[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(4): 82-94.

Figures/Tables 5

成本参数	状态
$λ = 1, η (1) = 2000,$ $η (2) = 2500, η (3) = 3000,$ $ρ (1) = 1.60, ρ (2) = 1.61,$ $ρ (3) = 1.62, μ k = 1, ω k = 500$	$P T$			$P V$
	$0.2$	$0.5$	$0.3$	$0.2$	$0.3$	$0.5$
	$0.1$	$0.4$	$0.5$	$0.2$	$0.3$	$0.5$
	$0.2$	$0.4$	$0.4$	$0.2$	$0.3$	$0.5$

供应商	甲			乙			丙
转移概率矩阵	0.55	0.25	0.20	0.30	0.50	0.20	0.45	0.30	0.25
	0.15	0.60	0.25	0.30	0.20	0.50	0.90	0.05	0.05
	0.10	0.20	0.70	0.15	0.35	0.50	0.40	0.50	0.10
周期 $k$	$α k$	$β k$	$ο k$	$α k$	$β k$	$ο k$	$α k$	$β k$	$ο k$
3	0	0.0000	0.0000	2	18.2416	0.0912	0	0.0000	0.0000
6	3	39.9164	0.1996	5	33.9331	0.1697	0	0.0000	0.0000
9	6	52.2240	0.2611	8	38.1672	0.1908	0	0.0000	0.0000
12	9	57.2184	0.2861	11	40.0942	0.2005	0	0.0000	0.0000
15	12	59.7892	0.2989	14	41.1954	0.2060	0	0.0000	0.0000
18	15	61.3381	0.3067	17	41.9079	0.2095	0	0.0000	0.0000
21	18	62.3714	0.3119	20	42.4067	0.2120	0	0.0000	0.0000
24	21	63.1095	0.3155	23	42.7753	0.2139	0	0.0000	0.0000
27	24	63.6631	0.3183	26	43.0589	0.2153	0	0.0000	0.0000
30	27	64.0937	0.3205	29	43.2838	0.2164	0	0.0000	0.0000

参数值	状态和成本参数			转移概率矩阵 $P U$
	$λ = 1, Λ = 1,2, 3, η (1) = 2000, η (2) = 2500, η (3) = 3000, Θ = 1,2, 3, ρ (1) = 1.60, ρ (2) = 1.61, ρ (3) = 1.62, ω k = 500$			1			2			3
				1	0	0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.2
				0	1	0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1
				0	0	1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.2
周期 $k$	$ξ k 1,1$	$r k * (1,1)$	$Q k * 1,1$	$Π k * (1,1)$	$ξ k 2,1$	$r k * (2,1)$	$Q k * 2,1$	$Π k * (2,1)$	$ξ k 3,1$	$r k * (3,1)$	$Q k * 3,1$	$Π k * (3,1)$
1	4919.6	6626.5	5120.5	8.7399 $× 106$	5145.5	6739.4	4781.8	7.6219 $× 106$	4540.6	6437.0	5689.1	1.0789 $× 107$
2	5064.8	6699.1	4902.8	8.0124 $× 106$	5134.3	6733.8	4798.5	7.6752 $× 106$	4554.9	6444.1	5667.7	1.0708 $× 107$
3	5055.9	6694.6	4916.1	8.0559 $× 106$	5134.5	6733.9	4798.3	7.6746 $× 106$	4555.2	6444.3	5667.1	1.0705 $× 107$

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Multi Cycle Investment and Pricing Joint Decision-making of Real Estate Enterprises in A Stochastic Environment

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