Abstract: The different stages of socio-economic systems development are constantly effected by the force of new countermeasures, policy, planning and project. In order to achieve efficient development, it is urgent to need a new system scientific methods to effectively reveal the direct effect generated by the force of system development, the indirect delayed effects between departments and the overall delayed effect. In this paper,based on the causal chain theory in system dynamics and tree theory in graph theory,new systematic force causal chain extremely out-trees which without considering the feedback effect are built, and causal chains out-trees are classified into direct effect tree branches, delayed effect tree branches among departments and balanced development effect tree branches. They can effectively reveal direct effect, delay effect among departments and overall effect of sustained development in system. The method is applied in the new rural health care system reform in China to reveal implementation effect of five health care reform countermeasures. A new analysis ideas and technology to analyze direct effect, delayed effect and overall effect of countermeasures are created. The method is also helpful for simulation effect analysis.

Key words: causal Chain out-trees, delay transfer effect, system dynamics, the new health care system reform, policy implementation effect