Abstract: Ecological civilization construction in China is a complex dynamic process, regarded as crucial as the construction of economy, politics, culture and society, evolving issues including ecological and environmental protection, resource conservation and environmental governance. Existing studies on ecological civilization construction can be divided into two groups: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The former ones focus more on the concept, connotation and realization path, while the latter ones on performance evaluation. Also, ecological civilization construction includes multiple factors such as economy, science and technology (S&T), education, policy, and environmental governance, changes of which will affect other factors and further the entire system.However, interdisciplinary studies are rarely conducted in this field, especially from the perspective of system science.Besides, fewer of the quantitative havenoticed the path and impact of different policies on ecological civilization construction.Therefore, investigating policy simulations of ecological civilization construction in China based on a systematic approach is of great significance.
For this purpose, a dynamic model of the ecological civilization construction system in China is built in this study based on systematic analysis of this process. Simulation period isfrom 2005 to 2030, during which period 2005-2017 is taken as the simulation interval and period 2018-2030 the simulation forecast interval. Four types of policy driving factors (i.e., birth, education, S&T, environmental governance) are set. 11 types of simulation policy scenarios in 3 categories are further constructedfor investigating the effects of differentpolicies and policy combinations on ecological civilization construction.Results show that: (1) Under current development mode,level of ecological civilization construction in China will continue to be enhanced,with the greatestprogress in the field of resource conservation. (2) Under single policy scenarios,S&T policywill promote the development of ecological civilizationto the greatest extent. The promotion effectiveness of birth policy is higher than the benchmark scenario, but weaker than that of education policy and environmental governance policy. (3) Under the combination policy scenarios,the combination of S&T and environmental governance policypromotesecological protectionmost powerfully. The combination of education and S&T policy can achieve the highest resource utilization efficiency.Yet choosing policy combination to improve the level of ecological civilization construction should also be combined with the long and short term of environmental governance.The former combination can help achieve the goal faster, while the latter combination promises a more stable progress. (4)S&T has become an important policy factor in both single policy scenarios and combined policy scenarios,indicating its significant role in ecological civilization construction.This study provides a reference for policy formulation and implementation as well as decision-making for promoting the efficiency and performance of China's ecological civilization construction.

Key words: ecological civilization construction, supporting policies, policy simulation, multi-scenario simulation, system dynamics