Abstract: This paper applies the wavelet method to the oil price long-term trend forecasing.By using the function of wavelet multi-scale analysi,we propose an approach which can accurately predict the future long-term trend of oil price according to the oil price time series.The advantage of the wavelet long-term trend forecast approach is that it can abstract the long-term trend of the oil price accurately and realize the non-linear characteristic of the oil price movements.Thus depending on the historical time series of the oil price,we can figure out the long-term multi-step forecast in a long future.The empirical research is constructed for an one-year long-term trend forecasing of the Brent oil price.By the comparison between the forecast result of this approach with the those of some other time series prediction approaches such as ARIMA,GARCH,Holt-Winters,we demonstrate that the predicted power of the wavelet long-term trend forecast approach in the oil price long-term trend prediction is much better than many other time series forecasting approaches.

Key words: wavelet analysis, oil price, long-term trend, time series, multi-step forecast