城市暴雨洪涝灾害链辨识及系统性风险评估

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2131

Abstract

Abstract:

A series of secondary derivative hazards triggered by urban rainstorms form rainstorm flood chains. The identification of disaster chains and the assessment of disaster chain risk based on disaster system theory are beneficial for enhancing the level of urban public safety emergency response. In contrast to previous research that focused on evaluating the risk of a single flood hazard， the construction of an event-evolutionary graph of rainstorm floods and a model for assessing systemic risk in disaster chains are introduced. A hybrid approach is developed in this study， which integrates disaster chains and complex networks to model and evaluate the systematic risk of urban rainstorms and flood disasters. The text data used in this study are sourced from news articles reporting flooding disasters between 2017 and 2021. The data are first preprocessed in this study， followed by the extraction of disaster event pairs using dependency language analysis and rule templates. Additionally， techniques for event clustering generalization and co-occurrence analysis are employed to create a factual knowledge map of the development of urban storm flooding disasters. Subsequently， risk level indices for flood and rainfall hazard chains are introduced， and a systematic risk assessment model that considers the amplification effect of hazard chain reactions on disaster scenarios is constructed. Cases from typical rainstorm events in Shenzhen， Henan， and Shanxi are selected. By comparing and analyzing the characteristics of disaster evolution， systematic risk response strategies， and management insights in different regions are proposed. The results indicate that （1） Distinct catastrophe events exhibit various characteristics and play roles in the dissemination effect of disaster risk progression， as revealed through the identification of the disaster chain of severe rainfall and flooding. （2） Through the assessment of systemic risk in the process of disaster chain evolution， it is observed that the same disaster event may trigger multiple disaster chains， and the value of risk is closely associated with the geographic environment and socio-economic development of different cities.

Key words: rainstorm flood, disaster chain, event logic graph, co-occurrence analysis, systemic risk

CLC Number:

X431

Gaofeng Liu, Jiajing Li, Huimin Wang, Yanbing Gong, Feifei Tao. Identification of Urban Rainstorm Flood Disaster Chain and Assessment of Systematic Risk[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(7): 222-231.

Figures/Tables 12

References 29

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规则	因果提示词	因果句法模板
由因到果配套式	<因为，从而><如果，那么><如果，则><由于，于是><由于，致使><由于，于是>等	<Conj>{Cause}<Conj/Verb>{Effect}
由因到果居中式精确	于是，所以，故，以致，造成等	{Cause}< Conj /Verb>{Effect}
由因到果居中式模糊	以免，以便等	{Cause}< Conj /Verb>{Effect}
由因到果前端式	因，由于，为了，如果，只要等	<Conj>{Cause}，{Effect}
由因到果前端式配套	<受，影响><遭，袭击>	<Conj>{Cause}<Verb>, {Effect}
由果溯因配套式	<之所以，因为><之所以，由于><之所以，缘于>等	< Conj /Verb>{Effect}<Conj>{Cause}
由果溯因居中式精确	是因为，是由于等	{Effect}<Conj>{Cause}
由果溯因居中式模糊	取决于，根源于等	{Effect}<Conj>{Cause}

主题编号	主题	关键词集
V1	强降水	降水暴雨强降雨特大暴雨降水量等
V2	洪涝灾害	洪涝灾害洪水泛滥涝害涝灾等
V3	内涝	马路积水路道积水积水城市内涝等
V4	地质灾害	地质灾害滑坡泥石流堰塞湖山体滑坡等
V5	堤坝损毁	溃坝堤防筑垒巡堤决口漫坝水库险情等
V6	威胁群众生命安全	遇难遇难者失踪死亡溺亡触电等
V7	国民经济损失	国民经济直接经济损失经济损失生命财产等
V8	电力中断	电力电路抢修线路中断用电电线倒塌等
V9	交通中断	桥梁路段塌方道路毁损码头路基下沉等
V10	企业停工停产	企业停工停产影响企业运营生产中断等
V11	农作物受灾	农作物受灾面积绝收面积减产等
V12	供水中断	供水中断停水饮水困难瓶装水等
V13	通信中断	通信中断通信失联等
V14	公共卫生事件	疟疾医疗瘫痪卫生防疫传染病消毒细菌等
V15	文物遗址受损	遗址遗迹景区文物古迹等
V16	停课	停课学生老师学校等
V17	环境污染	环境污染腐败水污染水质污染等
V18	煤矿事故	煤矿矿山塌方矿山煤等
V19	工程事故	施工清淤工工程作业工程塌方等

边介数排名	2019年深圳“4·11”事件	2021年河南 “7·20”事件	2021年山西“10·5”事件
1	强降水→洪涝灾害	堤坝毁损→洪涝灾害	煤矿事故→地质灾害
2	堤坝毁损→内涝	堤坝毁损→内涝	堤坝损毁→洪涝灾害
3	洪涝灾害→工程事故	堤坝毁损→地质灾害	地质灾害→堤坝损毁
4	地质灾害→工程事故	强降雨→供水中断	堤坝损毁→内涝
5	内涝→电力中断	内涝→交通中断	洪涝灾害→供水中断

演化路径	风险值	风险等级	风险等级划分标准
V1→V2→V3→V19→V6	0.9742	高风险	0.7566-1
V1→V2→V19→V13→V6	0.9377	高风险	0.7566-1
V1→V2→V4→V19→V10→V7	0.7094	较高风险	0.6123-0.7566
V1→V3→V8→V10→V7	0.5404	中风险	0.4427-0.6123
V1→V3→V8→V7	0.3110	较低风险	0.2339-0.4427
V1→V10→V7	0.0854	低风险	0-0.2339

演化路径	风险值	风险等级	风险等级划分标准
V1→V3→V4→V5→V2→V9→V6	0.8738	高风险	0.8444-1
V1→V4→V5→V2→V13→V6	0.8519	高风险	0.8444-1
V1→V5→V2→V4→V11→V7	0.8044	较高风险	0.5079-0.8444
V1→V5→V2→V3→V7	0.4196	中风险	0.3565-0.5079
V1→V4→V5→V3→V15	0.2354	较低风险	0.1933-0.3565
V1→V3→V16→V7	0.0543	低风险	0-0.1933

Identification of Urban Rainstorm Flood Disaster Chain and Assessment of Systematic Risk

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演化路径	风险值	风险等级	风险等级划分标准
V1→V18→V4→V5→V2→V8→V10→V7	0.9988	高风险	0.7651-1
V1→V3→V18→V4→V5→V2→V9→V6	0.9948	高风险	0.7651-1
V1→V3→V4→V5→V2→V9→V6	0.7650	较高风险	0.5599-0.7651
V1→V2→V18→V4→V5→V7	0.5596	中风险	0.3251-0.5599
V1→V2→V4→V5→V18→V7	0.3020	较低风险	0.0277-0.3251
V2→V9→V7	0.0648	低风险	0-0.0277

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