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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 February 2023, Volume 31 Issue 2 Previous Issue   
    Articles
    Dynamic Investment and Consumption Decisions and Firm’s Asset Pricing of Entrepreneurs with Liquidity Preferences
    LUO Peng-fei, LU Ting
    2023, 31 (2):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1040
    Abstract ( 423 )   PDF (1181KB) ( 580 )   Save
    In 2018, trade frictions between China and the US result in a downward trend in the stock market. The central bank reduces the reserve requirement and continue to increase the policy easing, which ensure the improvement of liquidity and stabilize the market trend. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the liquidity crisis causes four stock circuit-breakers in the United States and leads to turbulence in global stock markets. Thus, the liquidity problem affects the stability of the financial market, which in turn affects the development of firm. From the micro side, liquidity can also bring the entrepreneur utility to a certain extent. Therefore, entrepreneurs have liquidity preferences. What influence will entrepreneurs' liquidity preferences have on investment and consumption decisions and asset pricing? In addition, product technology innovation causes firm’s business cycle, which has the effect on investment and consumption decisions and asset pricing. How do the liquidity preferences affect the impact of business cycle on the solutions. As far as the author knows, there exit no paper to study the above problem, so this paper aims to fill this gap.
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    Cognitive Biases, Limited Competition and Asset Pricing
    LIU Xia, LIU Shan-cun, ZHANG Qiang
    2023, 31 (2):  9-17.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1373
    Abstract ( 334 )   PDF (1065KB) ( 461 )   Save
    Based on market microstructure theory, a Kyle-type market maker model is developed to explore the completion between traders who bear cognitive biases on the same private information they both observe and the consequent impacts on market outcomes. Firstly by analyzing informed traders’ trading pattern and asset pricing in the base model where both informed traders process the private information rationally and correctly, it is found that informed traders adopt identical trading strategy in equilibrium and divide profits equally. Then, the main model assumes that one of the two informed traders is rational and has objective and right view on the information while the other one is not rational and have subjective bias on that information, either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic. On the premise of those cognitive biases, these informed traders’ trading strategies, competition effect between them and the consequent asset pricing are examined. Then, it compares informed traders’ strategic behaviors, and the market outcomes of asset pricing with and without cognitive biases, and finds that a unique equilibrium exists when and only when the cognitive biases are within certain limits, or else the market breaks down. In equilibrium, the rational informed trader trades on this private information only, whereas the subjective informed trader trades not only on this private information but also on the difference between his views on the shared information and the rational informed trader’s. As a result, the rational trader’s trading intensity on the private information, expected trading volume, and expected profits are larger(smaller) than those of the subjective informed traders when he is over-pessimistic (over-optimistic), respectively. That is, the over-pessimistic (over-optimistic) informed trader competes against the rational informed trader in this trading game and gains more(less) than the rational informed trader does due to his cognitive biases. In respect to market liquidity and efficiency for price discovery, they are smaller when the subjective informed trader has pessimistic (optimistic) cognitive biases than those when there are no cognitive biases, respectively. Furthermore, the relations between cognitive biases and asset price bubbles are explored and it is found that informed trader’s over-pessimistic (over-optimistic) bias would lead to underpricing (overpricing) and thus trader’s optimism would generate price bubble gradually.
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    Credit Risk Warning of Listed Companies Based on Information Disclosure Text:Empirical Evidence from Management Discussion and Analysis of the Chinese Annual Report
    LI Cheng-gang, JIA Hong-ye, ZHAO Guang-hui, FU Hong
    2023, 31 (2):  18-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2263
    Abstract ( 436 )   PDF (1230KB) ( 599 )   Save
    With the economic globalization, the international economic situation becomes more and more complex, and Chinese listed companies will face greater challenges. The unstable economic situation such as trade friction and financial market volatility will increase the credit risk of listed companies. The establishment of credit risk early warning system is conducive to the operators to find the company’s financial problems in time, and make response and prevention. A large number of text documents disclosed by listed companies can extract certain effective information, which can be used as an effective supplement to the traditional quantitative financial indicators. As an important part of the annual report, “Management Discussion and Analysis (MD & A)” in the enterprise annual report includes the evaluation of the company’s historical operation by the company’s managers and the prospect of the future market development. Therefore, deep mining the valuable text information contained in MD&A can effectively supplement the company’s financial index information and predict the company’s credit risk.
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    EV Manufacturer’s Per-Use Rental Adoption Strategy——An Evolutionary Analysis Framework Based on Comparison of Business Models
    WAN Mi-yu, LIU Jian, ZHANG Zhi-jian, LUO Chun-lin
    2023, 31 (2):  30-39.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1062
    Abstract ( 313 )   PDF (1708KB) ( 655 )   Save
    Per-use rental models had experienced rapid growth in China from 2016 to 2019, many electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers adopted per-use rentals, even with profit loss. There are three explanations for the motivations of the manufacturers’ adoption of per-use rental: First, low EV technology level is not fit for selling models. Second, for acquiring EV subsidies, manufacturers sell EVs to per-use rental operators of their own to meet the policy requirements. Third, servicizing provides the incentives for the adoption of per-use rentals. In this paper, the business model adoption strategy is investigated. Combining three incentive factors of policy, technology and servicizing, an evolutionary analysis framework is established based on a comparison of business models, in which the government makes decisions on subsidies and manufacturers decide on business models. The adoption strategy of per-use rentals is analyzed, the interaction among subsidies, technology and per-use rentals is revealed. The conclusions show that, the pooling effect in servicizing and the level of EV technology are the two basic dimensions to determine business model adoption: the pooling effect determines the adoption of per-use rentals, the level of technology determines the adoption of the selling model. There exist interactions between the two basic dimensions, that is, the pooling effect can supplement and replace the technology factors. The EV subsidies change the manufacturers’ decisions on business models by influencing two basic dimensions. The fundamental motivation for manufacturers to adopt per-use rentals is the pooling effect brought by servicizing, rather than subsidies. When the pooling effect is strong, per-use rentals could improve consumer surplus and EV demand at the same time.
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    Optimal Patent Licensing Contracts Design and CRS Investment Decisions under Patent Protection
    JIN Liang, LU Chun-hong, CHENG Yong-sheng, WANG Xue-fang
    2023, 31 (2):  40-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0006
    Abstract ( 292 )   PDF (1499KB) ( 354 )   Save
    According to Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, the number of granted patents reached 723.90 billion yuan in the first half of 2019, up 23.6 percent year on year. However, in the process of patent authorization, patent infringement often occurs when there is an unreasonable patent licensing contract. As a result, the licensing of patent technology and the competition and cooperation among enterprises become complicated, which easily leads to the misalignment of decision-making incentives and performance losses of enterprises. In this context, the following questions are studied: how patent holder should choose the form of patent licensing contracts, how should brand manufacturer choose CSR investment strategies, and what impact CSR investment and asymmetric information will have on the equilibrium of the system and other issues.
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    Does Geopolitical Risk Drive China’s Crude Oil Futures Market? A Wavelet-based Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test
    YANG Kun, WEI Yu, LI Shou-wei, HE Jian-min
    2023, 31 (2):  51-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1136
    Abstract ( 358 )   PDF (1160KB) ( 415 )   Save
    The crucial effects of sudden geopolitical turmoil on crude oil markets have long been widely recognized, but there is no direct evidence that geopolitical risk changes drive China’s crude oil futures market. Introducing the news-based geopolitical risk (GPR) index, the nonlinear impacts of geopolitical risk on the returns and volatility of China’s crude oil futures are detailedly disussed, from the perspectives of multi-time scales and different conditional distributions, using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform and nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test. On that basis, seven types of oil intraday volatility are calculated by the 5-minute high-frequency transaction data of Shanghai crude oil futures, and are further used to analyze the effect of geopolitical risk on crude oil high-frequency price dynamics.
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    Research on R&D Project Investment Decision and Optimal Government Subsidies
    GAN Liu, LI Qun-chi
    2023, 31 (2):  63-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0896
    Abstract ( 266 )   PDF (1223KB) ( 399 )   Save
    One of the key strategic decisions in firms concerns the timing and financing of an investment. However, bonds are not the only source of financing key strategic investments. Government subsidy is an important source of financing. The government uses the subsidy to help the R&D enterprises to solve the problems of insufficient investment. According to a recent report by National Bureau of Statistics. The total expenditure on R&D activities in China was 2,173.7 billion yuan in 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 10.73% from 2015 to 2019. Among them, the total expenditure on R&D activities by companies in 2019 can account for about 79%, and the government accounts for 21%. The state’s financial science and technology funds are increasing year by year at an average annual rate of 12.9%.
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    Research on TT&C Scheduling Methods of Multi-satellites and Multi-stations Based on Maximal Cliques
    HU Xue-jun, WANG Jian-jiang, SUN Qing, BAI Jian, HAN Xue
    2023, 31 (2):  73-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0150
    Abstract ( 197 )   PDF (1065KB) ( 269 )   Save
    TT&C scheduling of satellites refers to the allocation of limited TT&C resources to satisfy a large number of tracking, telemetry and remote-control requests. With the development of space technology, satellites are widely used in remote sensing, navigation, communication, mapping and other fields. The TT&C demands of satellites are increasing continuously, and the scarce TT&C resources become more and more valuable. In order to alleviate the contradictions between the limited resources of ground stations and the increasing TT&C demands, the multi-satellite and multi-station scheduling problem is studied.
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    Study on Supervision Strategy of PPP Project Considering the Participation of Higher-Level Government
    ZHOU Yi-ning, LIU Ji-cai
    2023, 31 (2):  84-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0801
    Abstract ( 253 )   PDF (1452KB) ( 391 )   Save
    In PPP projects, investor speculation will damage the public interest and even affect the success of the project. Therefore, many government regulatory structures have been studied. However, considering the cost-effectiveness and perception bias of the government and investors, there is often the possibility that the incentive paradox will lead to invalid supervision. It is necessary to consider third parties from outside the regulatory structure to achieve effective regulation. Therefore, based on the prospect theory and the assumption of bounded rationality, the game revenue perception matrix is established and analyzed which introduces the administrative supervision mechanism of higher-level government departments. This can provide a theoretical basis for strategies to suppress speculation by investors in PPP projects. Studies have shown that the participation of higher-level government departments in the supervision of PPP projects has a significant effect on curbing investor speculation. Increasing the reference point of the project's basic performance standards, the penalty factor of the project, and the supervision probability of higher-level government departments can achieve the purpose of suppressing investor speculation. The effects of reward coefficients, local government supervision costs, and local government political performance penalties on suppressing investor speculation vary according to the initial project conditions. Formulating different supervision strategies according to the initial conditions of the project will facilitate the improvement of the PPP project supervision system and promote the sustainable development of the PPP project.
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    Pricing and Cold-chain Logistics Service Decisions of Fresh Agriculture Products Supply Chain under Different Trade Modes
    YE Jun, GU Bo-jun, FU Yu-fang
    2023, 31 (2):  95-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0751
    Abstract ( 572 )   PDF (1403KB) ( 756 )   Save
    Though China is a major producer and consumer of fresh agricultural products, cross-border trade in fresh agricultural products is booming due to limitation of production resource and imbalance productivity. However, easy to deterioration as well as long-distance and long-time cross-border journey lead to higher transportation cost and higher risk of goods loss for cross-border trade in fresh agricultural products. Therefore, the logistics provider is desired to improve the cold-chain logistics service so as to minimize the deterioration rate during the transportation. In addition, FOB (Free on Board), CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) and DAP (Delivered at Place) are three different trading modes, and the cost of cold-chain logistics service and the loss of goods in transportation are undertaken by the different parties under different trading modes. Therefore, in the cross-border trade of fresh agricultural products, the choice of different trading modes and cold chain logistics service will directly affect the risk of cross-border transportation and the degree of decay of fresh agricultural products, and then have a significant impact on the profits of each party of the fresh agricultural products supply chain. To solve these problems, this study focuses on the cross-border trading mode choice and freshness preservation of fresh agricultural products.
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    Agreement Enterprise’s Decisions on the Emergency Material Production and the Raw Material Pre-storage
    ZHANG Lin, TIAN Jun
    2023, 31 (2):  108-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2158
    Abstract ( 225 )   PDF (1124KB) ( 218 )   Save
    Uncertainties in disasters and emergency material demands make the government authorities and rescue agencies prefer the procurement contracts with flexibilities. However, flexible procurement increases the risks faced by the agreement enterprises, and then requires them to make reasonable emergency material production and reserve plans. This is because, compared with the production capacity reserve, the response speed of pre-production materials (physical reserves) is faster and the production cost is lower. However, production capacity reserve can reduce the agreement enterprises’ risk of overstocking and value loss since the government authority may not execute or partially execute the procurement contract. In this regard, most of the existing studies balance the advantages and disadvantages of the physical reserves and production capacity reserves. However, they commonly ignore a premise. That is, sufficient inventory of the raw materials that can be rapidly put into production is necessary. If the government authority dose not execute or partially executes the procurement contract, the raw material reserve will lose value as well.
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    Optimal Load Dispatch for Microgrid with Distributed and Centralized Energy Storage Systems
    YIN Hui, LU Xin-hui, , ZHOU Kai-le,
    2023, 31 (2):  118-128.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0762
    Abstract ( 282 )   PDF (1177KB) ( 559 )   Save
    The development of microgrid is an important way for rational utilization of renewable energy. Energy storage system (ESS) plays an important role in the process of coordinating multiple energy sources and achieving efficient collaborative optimization of microgrid. An optimal load dispatch model is constructed for microgrid, in which both distributed and centralized energy storage systems are considered. And demand response (DR) are considered in the proposed model. The proposed optimal load dispatch model comprehensively considers the economic cost and stability of the microgrid, thereby ensuring the stability of the microgrid while reducing the economic cost of the microgrid at same time. The proposed optimization problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which is solved efficiently using commercial solver CPLEX. In the experimental part, the impacts of different ESSs and DR on the economic cost and stability of the microgrid load dispatch process are discussed. The results show that the microgrid with distributed energy storage systems and centralized energy storage system can effectively reduce the economic cost of the microgrid and improve the stability of the microgrid. And the results reveal that the implementation of DR can further reduce the economic cost and improve the stability of microgrid. In addition, the experiment deeply explores the impact of the economic cost and stability weight factors on the objective function. The results show that the selection of the weight factors is a trade-off between the economy and stability of the microgrid, the best compromise between economic cost and stability is calculated in this paper. The research in this paper has important practical significance for the economic and stable operation of microgrid with distributed and centralized energy storage systems.
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    Trading Signal Index Optimization of Co-integration Strategy Based on Wavelet GARCH Model
    CUI Feng, HAN Chuan-feng, LIU Xing-hua, TENG Min-min
    2023, 31 (2):  129-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0027
    Abstract ( 233 )   PDF (2532KB) ( 198 )   Save
    The trading signal index system of cointegration strategy based on the fixed threshold is easy to trigger the trading too early, which leads to the cointegration strategy closing the stop loss at the peak of spread fluctuation, which is not suitable for the volatility aggregation time series. Based on the state space model, the time-varying coefficient cointegration statistical arbitrage strategy is constructed, the time series data of five state-owned banks’ A-share closing price are used for empirical analysis, GARCH model is used to extract the volatility agglomeration information of spread series, and wavelet de-noising technology is used to optimize the time-varying trading signal index system. The Sharpe ratio of wavelet de-noising GARCH time-varying threshold cointegration strategy is as high as 2.284 in the turbulent period from January to June of 2018, which is 18.4% higher than that of non de-noising time-varying threshold cointegration strategy and 109.5% higher than that of fixed threshold cointegration strategy in the same period; In the stable period from July to December of 2018, the sharpe ratio of the three strategies was lower than -2, and the sharpe ratio after noise reduction was slightly lower than that of the non noise reduction strategy. The empirical results show that: in the period of market turbulence, the time-varying trading threshold based on GARCH model can effectively capture the volatility agglomeration information, improve the accuracy of the model position when the jump spread occurs, and the wavelet de-noising optimization can reduce the possibility of triggering trading due to the wrong noise signal, and significantly improve the bank strategy Sharpe ratio. In the stable period, wavelet de-noising time-varying threshold cointegration strategy and non de noising, fixed threshold cointegration strategy are not suitable for the stable period.
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    A Measure for Financial Distress based on ST Predictive Model and the Cross-section of Stock Returns
    LIANG Mo, LI Hong-xiang, ZHANG Shun-ming
    2023, 31 (2):  138-149.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1532
    Abstract ( 291 )   PDF (1650KB) ( 269 )   Save
    Financial distress may lead to company bankruptcy in severe conditions. In fact, financial distress is a gradual process and it is predictable. Predicting financial distress is of great significance. On one hand, effective prediction of financial distress is beneficial to the protection of investors’ rights and interests. On the other hand, financial distressed companies are facing greater business risks, and it’s important to study whether the financial distress risk is effectively priced by the stock market. In China’s stock market, to better remind investors of market risks and guide investors to invest rationally, the China Securities Regulatory Commission requires stock exchanges to implement special treatment (ST) for listed company stock transactions in abnormal conditions. This is a policy unique to China’s stock market.
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    Advance Payment Strategy of Non-instantaneous Food Based on EOQ Model
    LI Ye-mei, HUANG Shao-an
    2023, 31 (2):  150-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0729
    Abstract ( 194 )   PDF (1272KB) ( 201 )   Save
    Given the characteristics of low efficiency and serious waste in the development of food industry, it has become the focus of national green supply chain construction. Due to the small scale of most food enterprises, it is hard to seek external financing. Internal financing in the supply chain becomes an important way to improve efficiency and reduce the waste caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. Based on the above, the supplier, retailer food enterprises and consumers are brought into the secondary trade credit system. For the method, the adjusted EOQ model is adopted to describe the above practical problems. Through the calculation of analytical solution and the numerical analysis of M enterprise in Jianghua County, the results show that food retailers do not bear the cost of non-instantaneous deterioration due to the existence of non-instantaneous deterioration time, so the strategy is usually better than the enterprise decision without considering the non-deterioration time. The discount factor of endogenous decision can make enterprises make better use of external conditions, set market segmentation price, improve the efficiency of supply chain decision-making, and the credit cycle and capital cost have a significant impact on retailers’ decision-making. In view of the low operational efficiency of the food supply chain, the classical EOQ model is adopted, and the endogenous and exogenous discount factor is brought into the advance payment strategy framework. Furthermore, the influence of the above two discount factors on the retailers’ decision of instant and non-instantaneous deteriorating food enterprises is compared, which to some extent enriches and perfects the classical EOQ research framework. In addition, some policy suggestions are provided for the construction and upgrading of China’s food supply chain, and certain theoretical and practical significance is proposed.
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    Ten Years of “New Medical Reform”: The Regional Differences, Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Medical and Health Service Efficiency
    YANG Huan, LV Cheng-chao
    2023, 31 (2):  162-172.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0539
    Abstract ( 243 )   PDF (1957KB) ( 639 )   Save
    Based on the undesired output-super-efficiency SBM model, the efficiency of medical and health services in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2009 to 2018 is measured, and the regional gap and dynamic evolution of health and medical efficiency is explored by using the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation methods. The spatial spillover effect of its influencing factors is also exhibited through the spatial Dubin model. The results can be exhibited as follows: (1) The efficiency of medical and health services in China and the four major regions of the East, the Central, the West and the Northeast are gradually increasing. The proportion of high-efficiency provinces is gradually increasing, and the proportion of low-efficiency provinces is gradually decreasing. (2) A "declining" trend is presented in the overall gap in the efficiency of China’s medical and health services. The intra-regional gap between the central and western regions is gradually narrowed, while the intra-regional gap between the eastern and northeastern regions has presented a widening trend. The gaps in the efficiency of medical and health services in the four regions are all shrinking. Part of the overlap in the process of medical development and reform is the main source of the overall gap in the efficiency of medical and health services. There is basically no polarization in the efficiency of medical and health services in the eastern and northeastern regions, while polarization exists in the central and western regions for most years. (3) A significant and positive spatial spillover effect is exhibited in the Chinese medical and health service efficiency. Per capita disposable income and the proportion of technical personnel have a significant negative direct effect on the efficiency of medical and health services. Furthermore, the proportion of graded hospitals behaves a significant negative spillover effect. The positive direct effects and spillover effects of population density and old-age dependency ratio are both very significant.
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    Research on the Effect Mechanism and Optimization Strategy of Activeness and Subsidy on Platform User Demand
    WU Zhi-qiao, KANG Ya-ling, LUO Jian, TANG Jia-fu
    2023, 31 (2):  173-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2679
    Abstract ( 248 )   PDF (14139KB) ( 424 )   Save
    The Online to Offline (O2O) platform, connecting merchants with customers, has provided a trading venue for online transaction but offline experiencing. As an emerging two-sided platform, cross network effect promotes the explosive growth of O2O market scale. However, compared with conventional two-sided platform, the massive transaction data accumulated on the O2O platform are highly time-dependent, and the stochastic of users’ on-demand makes real-time subsidy strategy become a more complex operation problem.
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    Is the Subcontractors’ Altruism really Beneficial to Public Goods Technological Innovation under Dual Dependence?
    WU Bai-yu, ZHONG Wei-jun, MEI Shu-e
    2023, 31 (2):  182-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0256
    Abstract ( 178 )   PDF (1708KB) ( 166 )   Save
    Entrusted enterprises joint research is an important way to obtain technological innovation of public goods under the new type of national system with concentrated efforts and resources for important events or projects. While most traditional studies didn’t consider subcontractors’ characteristics and the relationships among them, resulting in inconsistency between conclusions and reality. Therefore, a two-agent model considering altruistic preferences under the technological and stochastic dependencies in conjunction with the size of subcontractors’ contributions, is constructed to explore the impact of subcontractors’ altruistic preferences on the optimal contract type and expected returns in the public sector.
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    Staged Modeling Analysis of the Evolution of Net-mediated Public Sentiment on Corporate Social Responsibility Negative Events
    CHEN Hua, ZHANG Yu-wei
    2023, 31 (2):  195-204.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1172
    Abstract ( 243 )   PDF (2277KB) ( 506 )   Save
    In the information age, the rapidity and universality of network public opinion will aggravate the ' contagion effect ' of negative events of corporate social responsibility, quickly change public opinions and cognition, and affect the allocation of capital market resources. In order to study the law of multi-agent network public opinion spread with enterprise participation, the network public opinion participants are divided into internal and external influencing factors based on the perspective of ‘internal and external integration’, and the process of network public opinion spread is divided into two stages. In the two stages, different simulation models are used to analyze the evolution process. The first stage is the spread of network public opinion diffusion stage. Based on the classical infectious disease model, the S-ED/ID-R model containing the influence of internal and external driving factors is constructed. Then, the spread and diffusion model of network public opinion is constructed based on the S-ED/ID-R model, and the correlation between internal and external influencing factors is analyzed, which provides parameters for the simulation of the S-ED/ID-R model. The second stage is the government’s regulation of network public opinion. Based on the Lotka-Volterra competitive relationship model, the effects of three strategies are studied: advance government intervention time, increase the number of official microblogs and increase the frequency of official microblogs. Finally, combined with specific public opinion examples, the stage modeling is verified and analyzed to provide suggestions for the government to manage the negative events of corporate social responsibility.
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    Model and Algorithm of Dynamic Inventory Replenishment Based on Physical Internet
    JI Shou-feng, LIU Hong-yu, ZHAO Peng-yun, JI Ting-ting
    2023, 31 (2):  205-214.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0768
    Abstract ( 225 )   PDF (1719KB) ( 263 )   Save
    With the advent of an era of intelligence and information, it is so difficult for current logistics network to meet increasingly various customer demand. For improving the inventory replenishment level of enterprises, the concept of Physical Internet is introduced. Different from traditional logistics network, the logistics network of Physical Internet has characteristics of interconnection, openness and sharing. According to source selection strategy, the suppliers or PI-hubs can be selected by the stockout PI-hubs or retailers dynamically. In order to solve the problem of inventory replenishment in Physical Internet, a hybrid replenishment strategy of Installation-Echelon is proposed. Besides, the dynamic inventory replenishment model is constructed in Physical Internet. The objective function is represented by minimizing inventory replenishment cost and the decision variables are expressed by replenishment quantities and reorder points. Aiming to solving the large-scale dynamic mixed integer nonlinear programming model, several replenishment predetermined plans are obtained by particle swarm optimization algorithm. Then predetermined plans are circularly brought into the simulation environment to optimize. Finally, taking the China Aviation Equipment Import and Export Corporation as an example, the solvability of the model and the feasibility of the algorithm are verified. The results show that source selection strategy in Physical Internet has a significant impact on replenishment cost and replenishment strategy, which provides a reference value for enterprises to formulate inventory replenishment strategy and select source under different conditions.
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    Study on Behavior-based Pricing Strategy and Contract Model for Platforms with Service Differentiation
    MA Dong-sheng, SONG Hua-ming, ZHAO Jin-xiao, ZHU Yan-ru
    2023, 31 (2):  215-225.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0972
    Abstract ( 278 )   PDF (1503KB) ( 411 )   Save
    It is common that customers are more willing to consume on platforms matching their service preferences, which makes it difficult for platforms to attract new customers. Behavior-based pricing (BBP) is used to compete for new customers and market shares. However, cooperation between platforms and collaborators are affected by intensified price competition. In this context, dual challenges of BBP strategy and contract model are faced by competing platforms. Firstly, to solve this problem, game theory is used to construct a two-period dynamic pricing model. Secondly, platform's optimal BBP strategy and contract model are obtained through the comparative analysis of platforms’ profits, prices, and demands under different scenarios. Finally, two situations are analyzed where platforms share customer information with collaborators and collaborators can choose the contract model. The main findings are as follows: (1) platforms’ pricing decision are affected by two key factors—relative service efficiency and operating type, and specific conditions are given; (2) Customer information should be shared with collaborators,which can increase platforms’ profits and weaken internal competition. (3) Long-term contracts are the best choice for collaborators to cooperate with resell-channel platforms. These conclusions provide management inspiration for platforms to make scientific BBP and contract model choices. In addition, it also shows that BBP helps to coordinate platforms’ internal and external competition.
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    Study on Updated Products Launch Timing and Seed Optimization under a Non-Delisting Strategy
    WENG Ke-rui, ZHOU Jing
    2023, 31 (2):  226-234.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0987
    Abstract ( 156 )   PDF (2643KB) ( 151 )   Save
    In recent years, in a market environment where there is a competitive relationship between updated products and old products, a delayed launch of updated products has become the product operation strategy of many enterprises. Current competitive diffusion studies focus on the problems of diffusion maximization of one product under external competition, but have not considered the problems of diffusion maximization of all products under internal competition (such as competition between old products and updated products). The optimization of launching time and seed selection for updated products under a non-delisting strategy is considered: in a social network G(N,E) with existing old products, products spread their influence in the form of diffusion model P, and the old products will keep on spreading when updated products are launched, and an optimal choosing on the stage t and the p seeds will be found for launching updated products to maximize the sum of the profits from both old and updated products. In this paper, an integer programming model which is based on competition is established, and a multi-stage greedy algorithm is designed to solve large-scale instances. The basic idea of the algorithm is: select new product seeds iteratively in a certain stage of the planning period, and calculate the marginal influence of all other candidate seeds, calculate the total income of all cases, and find out the total profit of all cases. To maximize the total revenue, the seed delivery stage and seeds of the product are renewed. It is tested on scale-free network with n=1000, m=3 and a real social network data set Facebook. Computational experiments show that this algorithm has higher solution efficiency, which is 96% higher than the traditional greedy algorithm; And this algorithm has better solution quality, which is 253% better than random algorithm and 14% better than degree discount algorithm. At the same time, with simulations in a real network, it is found that the larger number of seeds of the updated products, or the larger planning stage, or the higher profit of the updated products tends to a later launching time to make the manufacturer obtain higher profits, and it can provide decision-making for enterprises to carry out network marketing.
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    Optimization Analysis of Hotel Direct Channel and Online Travel Agent Distribution Channel Strategy
    ZHANG Qiao-ke, CHEN Hong-zhuan, WAN Liang-qi
    2023, 31 (2):  235-244.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0389
    Abstract ( 256 )   PDF (2605KB) ( 301 )   Save
    Considering the rising commission rate due to hotels’ overreliance on Online Travel Agent (OTA) and the large amount of operating cost due to establishment of hotel’s direct channel, a Stackelberg game model is established to investigate a hotel’s channel selection strategy among the single-direct-channel strategy, the dual-channel strategy and the single-OTA-channel strategy. In addittion, the hotel’s pricing strategy and the OTA’s optimal commission rate are also explored. Results show that when the operating cost and the commission rate are both small, the dual-channel strategy dominates. When the operating cost is small and the commission rate is large, the single-direct-channel strategy dominates. When the operating cost is large, the single-OTA-channel strategy dominates regaedless of the commission rate. For the OTA, a higher commission rate does not necessarily generate more profit. Moreover, the OTA’s decision on the optimal commission rate is related to the operating cost of the hotel, the highest commission rate stipulated in the hotel industry, and the customers’ preference to the direct channel. In addition, if the operating cost is small, then the dual-channel strategy is the equilibrium strategy for the whole supply chain; otherwise, single-OTA-channel strategy is the equilibrium strategy.
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    Research on Channel Mode Selection of Online Platform Product Competition
    ZHANG Zi-jian, LIU Wen-Jing
    2023, 31 (2):  245-254.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0678
    Abstract ( 334 )   PDF (1055KB) ( 526 )   Save
    With more and more enterprises carrying out online channel sales, the channel mode design of online platform has become particularly important. How to carry out product sales under different channel modes has become an issue that the operation of online platform must face.
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    Interest Rate Decision Model Based on CVaR with Investment and Loan Linkage from the Perspective of Retailer Operation
    YU Hui, LI Xin
    2023, 31 (2):  255-265.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0332
    Abstract ( 189 )   PDF (1295KB) ( 298 )   Save
    In supply-side structural reform, investment linkage plays an important role in exploring innovative financial services mode. Nevertheless, reasonable interest rate pricing has become the key to mitigate financial “resource misallocation” conflict. According to statistics, from the beginning of 2016 to the end of June 2017, a total of 8.389 billion yuan of loans have been issued and 373 enterprises have been served through the investment and loan linkage financing in Beijing. By the end of the second quarter of 2017, the balance of investment and loan linkage was 4.802 billion in Shanghai, which is 78.93% growth compared to 2016. The bank actively carry out investment and loan linkage business, which not only promotes the integration of “equity and debt” at the capital level, but also meets the demand of supply chain operating funds. Further, the investment and loan linkage promotes the infiltration and integration of multi-level financial capital and real economy by building a “community of interests” that matches risk preferences and income requirements. The key to the innovation of investment and loan linkage is to use equity capital as a credit link to ease the information asymmetry between the borrowers and the borrowers, and to curb the possibility of “operational risk triggering credit risk” from the root. Based on the realistic background, the essential characteristics of bank risk aversion and equity pledge rebuilds enterprise credit from operating perspective is depicted, retailer investment linkage financing model and inquire pricing mechanism of loan interest rate under CVaR risk measurement criteria are constructed. This provides a theoretical reference for supply chain operations and financial integration.
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    Research on Evaluation of Remote Sensing Satellite Equipment Capability Based on Fuzzy Influence Diagram
    WU Bo-yi, LU Han-chen
    2023, 31 (2):  266-277.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0259
    Abstract ( 170 )   PDF (1616KB) ( 247 )   Save
    While promoting the vigorous development of space-based applications, China's satellite industry has also brought challenges to the value of research and development and the speed of production development. It is of great significance to carry out comprehensive capability evaluation of satellite equipment, and the evaluation process needs to fully consider the diversity and interdependence of influencing factors. Aiming at the evaluation of remote sensing satellite equipment capability, this paper selects 24 influencing factors related to equipment capability, including mission planning, navigation and positioning, military operations and so on, and constructs the corresponding index system. The fuzzy influence diagram method is used to complete the establishment of fuzzy relations between numerical layers and nodes, so as to realize the effective evaluation of remote sensing satellite equipment capability. Taking the impact of a new type of equipment on the satellite system equipment capability as an example, the evaluation verification analysis is carried out, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given. The results show that this evaluation method can make an effective evaluation of the satellite equipment capability, better reflect the influence of the equipment capability by factors, and the data structure is more convenient to calculate, which can provide decision support for the equipment research and development of remote sensing satellite industry.
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    The Impact of Default Reviews on Consumer Review Volume and Review Length
    WANG Xin, ZHU Hong, ZHAO Ying-nan, CHEN Xiao-wei
    2023, 31 (2):  278-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1065
    Abstract ( 277 )   PDF (2355KB) ( 438 )   Save
    Online reviews have an important influence on consumer purchasing decisions. However, the number of online reviews provided by consumers is far from sufficient, and most of the reviews are short, lack of sufficient information, or of poor quality. Many e-commerce platforms have begun to increase review volume through automatically filling in reviews (i.e., default review) if the customer did not write a review, but the impact of default reviews on the generation of consumer reviews has not yet been explored. In this context, the following research questions are raised: What is the impact of default reviews on the volume and length of subsequent consumer reviews? What is its underlying mechanism? These questions are explored by combining second-hand data analysis and experimental method. In study 1, consumer reviews and sales data are crawled from Alibaba to form a panel dataset. The dataset containes 462 products and 120,864 reviews, ranging from September 6th, 2017 to December 6th, 2017. A two-way fixed effects model is constructed to analyze the impacts of default reviews on consumer review volume and review length. The results show that with the increasing of default reviews, subsequent consumer review volume and review length decrease. In Study 2, experimental method is adopted and 165 participants are recruited to examine the psychological process of how default reviews impacted consumer review intentions. The results show that the underlying mechanism is conformity. Specifically, the increase in the volume of default reviews can enhance consumers’ conformity, therefore consumers are less likely to write reviews. This research sheds light on the literature of the generation of consumer reviews by identifying the social influence of silent consumers. Moreover, this research contributes to research on online communities by expanding the scope of subjects that interact with each other in content generation behavior. In addition, the current research provides managerial implications for both online shopping platforms and merchants in designing review systems and stimulating online reviews.
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