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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 August 2021, Volume 29 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    The “Ripple Effect” in Stock Market Co-movement
    ZHU Xiao-neng, WU Jie-nan
    2021, 29 (8):  1-12.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0806
    Abstract ( 684 )   PDF (1488KB) ( 226 )   Save
    Since the 2008 financial crisis, the correlation coefficients between international stock markets have fluctuated greatly. The fundamental factors which proposed in previous studies cannot fully explain these fluctuations. In this paper, a new mechanism that affects stock market co-movement is proposed, which name is ripple effect. The ripple effect refers to the phenomenon that an increase (decrease) in central market's idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) will lead to an increase (decrease) in return correlation coefficient (CORR) between other markets.
    Co-movement model is used to analyze the ripple effect. The model shows that when market Y and market Z depend on market X and the dependence coefficient is positive, the CORR of return between Y and Z is positively correlated with the market X's IVOL, negatively correlated with Y and Z's IVOL. The IVOL and the CORR between 9 major markets are used in empirical analysis. Three regressions need to be done to test the US market's ripple effect. First, regress the US market and other markets' CORR on their IVOL to determine the direction of information transmission between US and other markets. Second, regress the CORR between other markets on the US market's IVOL to calculate the influence of the US market on the co-movement among other markets. Finally, regress the CORR between US and other markets on another market's IVOL to identify that other markets have no influence on the US stock markets. The results show that there is no obvious ripple effect before 2007, and there is a ripple effect centered on the US market after 2007. At the same time, the ripple effect of other markets is also examined. The results show that there is no significant ripple effect in any market except the US. In recent years, A-shares market began to be affected by US market, which is the main reason for the increasing in the CORR between A-shares and other stock markets. The direction of risk transmission in the international market can be identified by studying the relationship between IVOL and CORR. Previous researches may overestimate the influence of European market.
    This paper enriches the research on the factors that affect stock market co-movement, and ripple effect is of great significance for understanding the market co-movement and assessing market influence.
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    Measuring VaR Based on the Information Content of Option and High-frequency Data
    WU Xin-yu, LI Xin-dan, MA Chao-qun
    2021, 29 (8):  13-23.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1189
    Abstract ( 411 )   PDF (2342KB) ( 249 )   Save
    Value-at-Risk (VaR), is a widely used measure of financial market risk, which is conceptually simple and intuitive. Accurate measurement of VaR is important for financial risk managers and regulators. Traditionally, the measurement of market risk (VaR) doesn't use the information content of option and high-frequency data fully, and mainly based on the single-factor volatility models such as the GARCH and stochastic volatility models, which leads to the loss of information and the lack of flexibility of the model.
    With the rapid development of derivative (option) markets, the option data become readily available. The option prices reflect market sentiment and/or investors' expectations about future stock market volatility. And a growing body of research has found that option data contain important (forward-looking) information for volatility forecasting and risk measurement. At the same time, with the advanced computers and communications technology, high-frequency financial data are now widely available, which usually summarized in terms of realized volatility measure, providing much more detailed information about the current level of volatility.
    Motivated by the above interpretation, by extracting the forward-looking and current information of option and high-frequency data based on a flexible two-factor stochastic volatility model, a market risk measurement volatility model is proposed for measuring VaR. To estimate the model parameters, the continuous particle filters-based maximum likelihood estimation method is developed. Using iVX index and realized volatility measure as the proxies of the Shanghai 50ETF option and high-frequency data, an empirical study for the proposed market risk measurement volatility model is presented. The results show that the two-factor stochastic volatility model incorporated with option and high-frequency information can provide more accurate volatility estimates even in the rapidly changing market environment, which leads to more accurate VaR estimates than other volatility models, including the GARCH model incorporated with only historical information, the realized GARCH model incorporated with high-frequency information and the single-factor stochastic volatility model incorporated with option and high-frequency information. In particular, the proposed model can improve the accuracy of VaR estimates more significantly over others under the extreme risk condition.
    The empirical results highlight the values of the information content of option and high-frequency data and the two-factor volatility in market risk management. And our model provides an efficient and promising tool to measuring VaR.
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    Study on the Spatial Effect of Inclusive Finance on Supporting the Photovoltaic Power Development
    LIU Xue-fei, ZHANG Qi, LI Yan, YU Le-an, WANG Ge
    2021, 29 (8):  24-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2128
    Abstract ( 308 )   PDF (1125KB) ( 128 )   Save
    China's Photovoltaic (PV) power develops rapidly in recent years under the support of feed in tariff subsidy. However, it is facing the severe challenge of subsidy phase out. So it is very important to solve the financing problem of photovoltaic power generation. Although the overall level of access to financial services has improved in last ten years in China, there are still obvious problems of unbalanced development in space. Therefore, the spatial correlation of China's inclusive financial development index and its role in promoting the development of China's photovoltaic power generation has been tested in this paper. The results show that (i) the development level of China's inclusive finance shows a pattern of low in the West and high in the East, while the development of photovoltaic power generation also has significant spatial heterogeneity; (ii) PV panel is mainly installed in the western region with abundant solar irradiation resource at its early stage, however new PV is mainly installed in the eastern region with higher level of Inclusive Finance in recent years; (iii) it shows that the development of China's inclusive finance has a significant supporting effect on photovoltaic development, and the support has a spatial spillover effect. Therefore, compared with government subsidies, the improvement of the space inclusive finance can support the PV power development more effectively in China.
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    The Impact of China's House-Sale Restrictions and Its Joint Effect with Housing-Purchase Restriction on Housing Price
    AN Hui, HE Xuan, ZOU Qian-miao
    2021, 29 (8):  35-43.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1865
    Abstract ( 443 )   PDF (915KB) ( 319 )   Save
    Since 2002, several policies have been successively enforced by the Chinese government to curb the soaring housing price. Those policies include not only conventional monetary, tax and credit policies, but also administrative interventions with Chinese characteristics: the housing-purchase restriction (HPR) policy since 2010 and the house-sale restrictions (HSR) policy since 2017. The HSR policy, which is currently rarely implemented worldwide, inhibits the speculative transactions in the secondary property market by limiting the resale time of second-hand houses. In view of this, this paper incorporates multiple policy factors into one framework, focusing on the impact of the recently introduced HSR policy and examining the joint effect of HSR policy and HPR policy to complement the existing literature.
    With the use of the national monthly data from January 2017 to May 2018, a more applicable multi-stage difference-in-difference model (Multi-Stage DID) is conducted to empirically analyze the effect and heterogeneity of HSR policy on housing price at the national and city levels, respectively. And the joint effect of HSR policy and HPR policy are also conducted. The results show that the HSR policy suppresses housing price and its effects are heterogeneous. At the national level, the effect of HSR policy on second-hand houses price is stronger than that of new houses price, and it is more effective on small-sized houses price than large and medium-sized houses price. At the city level, the impact on properties price in first-tier cities is greater than that in second and third-tier cities, and it has a significant role on housing price in central and western cities, but no significant effect in eastern cities. Moreover, the joint effect of both the HSR policy and HPR policy is superior to that of merely HSR policy.
    The policy recommendations are proposed as follows. (a) The policy maker of the HSR policy should continue considering local feature and the risk of economic decline if the HSR policy is introduced indiscriminately across the country. (b) During the enforcement of HSR policy, the effective supply of housing should be improved by structural reform at supply-side in the primary market. Policies such as public housing and the welfare-oriented housing will alleviate the structural imbalances between supply and demand in the market.
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    A Comparative Study of Industrial Generic Technology R&D Modes with Multi-agent Participation
    ZHENG Yue-long, LIU Si-man, BAI Chun-guang
    2021, 29 (8):  44-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2174
    Abstract ( 254 )   PDF (3255KB) ( 118 )   Save
    In the face of profound changes in the domestic and international environment, the construction of a new development pattern driven by scientific and technological innovation is of great significance. Efforts must be made to ensure "high-quality science and technology" to underpin the development of a modernized economy. It also calls for an urgent need in the innovation in generic technologies. However, as a pre-competitive technology, generic technology is faced with a variety of R & D failures. Hence, three R&D modes are introduced in this study, which are the market mechanism mode, the university-research participating mode and the government participating mode. Learning from the Stackelberg game theory, a game model which involves the generic technology supply enterprise A, the business development enterprise B and the government is constructed to analyze and compare the optimal effort of enterprises, expected returns of all parties and the optimal subsidy and policy guidance of government under the above three R&D modes. The results show as follows: the government participating mode is strictly better than the university-research participating mode, beyond that, understanding the critical factors and influence mechanism that makes one mode the dominant is the key to choose the generic technology R&D mode. The expected returns of all parties and effort of enterprise A and enterprise B under the three R&D modes are affected by both common and individual factors, among which the cooperative degree is a key factor. Subsidy supplying and policy guidance of the government is necessary in generic technology R&D, when the technology elasticity is large, the government should allocate a relatively large proportion of subsidy to enterprise A, and when the profit-sharing factor is large, enterprise B should be allocated a relatively large proportion. Finally, some policy enlightenments are provided to promote the generic technology R&D from the aspects of choosing the generic technology R&D mode, increasing the generic technology R&D parties' efforts and introducing accurate policies by the government.
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    Multi-objective Low Carbon MDVRP Optimization Based on E-commerce Commitment Delivery Mechanism
    PU Xu-jin, LI Xiu-feng
    2021, 29 (8):  57-66.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0365
    Abstract ( 273 )   PDF (2572KB) ( 199 )   Save
    Under the background of rapid development of e-commerce, the problem of logistics terminal distribution optimization has become the key to its operational efficiency. For the multi-depot e-commerce logistics distribution problem, firstly, considering the impact of actual loading on vehicle fuel consumption in the process of logistics distribution, a fuel consumption model is established, and combining the commitment delivery mechanism of e-commerce platform, delayed delivery time function is built. Then, the multi-objective multi-depot vehicle routing problem with minimizing logistics distribution cost and minimizing delayed delivery time is proposed, and a mixed integer programming model of the problem is established. Thirdly, considering the NP-Hard characteristics of the problem and the difficulty of solving multi-objective, the problem is solved by the multi-objective genetic algorithm based on decomposition. The algorithm uses matrix coding to design a heuristic initialization method based on greedy search strategy. At the same time, considering that the greedy search strategy is easy to fall into the local optimum, in the iterative process of the algorithm, some unfeasible solutions are allowed to exist to expand the search range of the solution space, and the crossover and mutation operators of the genetic algorithm are further designed. Finally, the numerical experiments are carried out with specific logistics distribution cases. The experimental results verify the effectiveness of the designed algorithm to solve the model, and also show the inverse relationship between logistics distribution cost and delayed delivery time. There is a trade-off between consumer satisfaction and logistics distribution costs. In order to achieve higher consumer satisfaction, it often means increasing the cost of logistics distribution. At the same time, the solution algorithm of this paper provides a solution to the problem of e-commerce terminal delivery.
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    A Study on Storage Policy Optimization: Dedicated Storage vs Class-Based Random Storage
    LI Jian-bin, MENG Ming-you, DAI Bin
    2021, 29 (8):  67-80.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0102
    Abstract ( 328 )   PDF (3225KB) ( 356 )   Save
    The storage location recommendation process and the order picking are the two important aspects of reducing warehouse operation cost. The recommendation process employs the storage policy to allocate the incoming products in the warehouse to specific storage locations, which strategically determines the ordering picking efficiency and the cost of warehouse operations to some extent, and at the same time determines the efficiency of the warehouse operations directly responding to the demand quickly and efficiently. However, based on our investigation in practice, it is found that ecommerce selling different goods usually have different order structure, and usually use different storage policies, like the Class-based random storage and dedicated storage policy that are widely used. Therefore, this motivates us to investigate the operation efficiency of different industries under the Class-Based random storage and dedicated storage policy.
    In our paper, the comparison of warehouse operation efficiency in a planar warehouse under the Class-Based random storage and dedicated storage strategy is considered, namely, the comparison of the total cost of location recommend process and the picking process in the industries of the fast-selling goods industry, the book industry and the pharmaceutical industry. A mathematical model based on the location recommend process and the picking process is built. And the Class-Based random storage and the dedicated storage strategy under the same warehouse background are analyzed. Based on the characteristics of the order structure under the fast-selling goods industry, the book industry and the pharmaceutical industry, three typical enterprises under their respective industries are selected for analysis. Their order structure of the three industries is 9-12 items, 2-3 items and 1-2 items. According to the order structure obtained from the actual investigation and the actual sales volume of goods, the order generation is simulated. Then a reasonable simulation of the order structure based on the warehouse operation and design an algorithm is made to solve the model.
    Discrete differential evolution algorithm is employed to test the different types of order structures underthe Class-Based random storage and the dedicated storage strategy respectively. The results show that: (a) In those three industries, the total cost of the dedicated storage is lower than the total cost of the Class-Based random storage strategy if the proportion of the cost of its location recommend process to the total cost is less than 0.25. (b) If the proportion is less than 0.26 but greater than 0.25, Both the fast-selling goods industry and the pharmaceutical industry have lower total cost of dedicated storage strategies, while the book industry has lower cost for the Class-based random storage. (c) And if the proportion is less than 0.27 but greater than 0.26, the total cost of the dedicated storage strategy is lower in the fast-selling goods industry while higher in the book industry and the pharmaceutical industry. (d) The total cost of the Class-Based random storage is lower than that of the dedicated storage strategy if the proportion is higher than 0.27 in the three industries.
    When the location recommend process is as important as the picking process, under the two storage strategies, the cost of the location recommend process of the respective strategies is not so much different. But the cost of the picking process is gradually reduced from the fast-selling goods industry and the book industry to the pharmaceutical industry. And the total cost of the Class-Based random storage is 7%-8% lower than the total cost of the dedicated storage strategy. Besides, the total cost of its location recommend process is 25.2% lower than that of the dedicated storage strategy. But for the picking process, the picking cost of the Class-Based random storage is 7.2% higher that of the dedicated storage strategy. Research shows that our paper can provide a certain reference value for the storage strategy choice of different order structure. In the actual warehouse operation, the order data can be analyzed according to the actual sales ratio of goods, and the appropriate storage mode can be selected based on the emphasis of the location recommend process and the picking process.
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    Collaborative Strategies on Ordering and Advertising of a Loss Averse Retailer with Financing Constraint
    DAI Jian-sheng, CHEN Rui-jia
    2021, 29 (8):  81-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1777
    Abstract ( 377 )   PDF (1000KB) ( 109 )   Save
    Due to a long lead time of ordering and a short life cycle, it must be careful to decide how much to purchase in order to deal with uncertainty of market demand, especially true for a newsvendor-like retailer. As advertising can stimulate market demand, decision-making on advertising needs to be reconciled with one of commodity ordering. Theoretically, the problem mentioned above is abstracted as a problem on joint decision-making of ordering and advertising, which has been widely concerned in recent years. Both loss aversion and financing constraints impose a significant effect on operation strategies. Financial constraints limit feasible range of the strategies that the retailer can choose, whereas loss aversion influences the decision-making objective, which in turn affects the optimal strategies. A natural question arises, how to allocate the limited funds for commodity purchase and advertising promotion, if a loss averse retailer is confronted with financing constraints. The problem mentioned above is discussed in this paper.
    To begin with, the optimal strategies are characterized on ordering and advertising of the retailer. Under the optimal strategies, the marginal utility by the last unit fund in purchasing is equal to one in advertising. What's more, the ratios, which of marginal utility by the revenue and marginal negative utility by the cost correspondingly, are also equal as well. This conclusion keeps hold established, regardless of loss preference, the initial capital, and financing interest rate. In particular, in the case of sufficient funds or shortage of funds, the marginal utility equals to the marginal negative utility. In case of relative shortage of funds, the marginal utility is strictly greater than the marginal negative utility. Furthermore, the ratio of the two is between 1 and the running cost per financing fund. In the following, impact on the optimal strategy is analyzed of loss aversion, initial fund, financing interest rate, purchase price, sales price and sensitivity of advertising promotion, and reveal the mechanisms behind. In the case of sufficient funds or shortage of funds, the changing direction of the order quantity is the same with that of the intensity of advertisement as the exogenous factors change. In the case of relative shortage of funds, the varying direction of the ordering quantity is opposite to that of the intensity of advertisement. At last, joint impact on the operation strategies is explored of loss aversion and adverting effect. The operation strategies are affected by loss aversion preference of the retailer, if and only if it is likely to operate at a loss. In particular, in the absence of advertising, a loss is inevitable. However, in the presence of advertising, no loss is possible.
    The management implications are as follows. Firstly, ordering and advertising need to be reconciled. If possible and necessary, the retailer should use external financing to alleviate financial pressure. Secondly, with financial constraints, it need not always follow the principle that marginal revenue equals to marginal cost in capital utilization. In fact, if the retailer is relatively short of funds, marginal revenue should be strictly greater than marginal cost. Finally, if the retailer is loss averse, it should pay more attention to marginal utility and marginal negative utility, rather than marginal revenue and marginal cost, which is true under loss neutrality.
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    A Study on the Symbiotic Model for Green and Conventional Buildings Considering the Game Payoff Matrix and Limited Market Capacity
    HUANG Ding-xuan, LI Shu-liang, WU Yong-jiao, LU Rui
    2021, 29 (8):  94-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0224
    Abstract ( 233 )   PDF (1449KB) ( 127 )   Save
    Green construction is an important direction for the future of the construction industry, while developing green buildings is an effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Designing an incentive mechanism for green building projects is one of the main contents of project management research. However, traditional game models or evolutionary game models cannot consider the symbiotic changes of the number of different populations at the same time when studying the mechanism of the interaction between them. Aiming to solve this problem on the basis of the density game theory by taking into account the limited capacity for green and traditional buildings in the micro-market, the symbiosis equation and game payoffmatrix for greenand traditional building projects are combined, and an independent symbiosis density game model of green and traditional buildings is proposed. The stability of the model is analyzed using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, the dynamic characteristics of different populations in the game model considering the payoffmatrix are simulated using the system dynamics softwareVensim.
    It is discovered that there is a unique symbiotic stability point in the model, which is related to the market capacity and game payoffmatrix. The stability condition of our model is closely relevant to the payoffmatrix for green and traditional buildings, but has nothing to do with the net replication rate of green and traditional buildings. The effectiveness of policy incentives is closely related to the behavior choice bythe micro agents. The simulation results based on the realcase from China show that the model can reveal and explain the symbiotic developing process for green and traditional buildings in China. The model and simulation results can also provide effective technical support and theoretical basis for promoting the development of green buildings, and can offer a good reference for other decision-making problems that need to consider both population symbiosis and mutual games.
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    Research on Project Portfolio Selection Problem Affected by Flexible Time Horizon and Value Fluctuation
    MA Shao-yi, LI Xing-mei, LI Jin-meng
    2021, 29 (8):  106-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0860
    Abstract ( 157 )   PDF (1260KB) ( 106 )   Save
    Due to the shortage of resources, project managers are more and more eager to carry out multiple projects in parallel in a limited time and resource range in order to obtain higher benefits. However, there will be a high degree of uncertainty in the parallel development of many projects, which will affect the development of enterprises. The existing project portfolio models all think that the project set can be completed in a fixed planning period, but in the actual project implementation process, the decision makers often adjust the length of the planning period reasonably according to the actual situation, extended the planning period so that the high-yield projects can be included in the project set or shorten the planning period as much as possible to give up the risky projects and release more funds. Therefore, the flexible time horizon is brought into the project portfolio selection model. At the same time, considering that the value of the project will change with time, for the uncertainty of the future value of the project, the binary tree model of real options is used to define the formula of value fluctuation and a new model of project portfolio selection affected by flexible time horizon and value fluctuation is established at the same time, and the traditional net present value method (NPV) is complemented for calculating project value. In the part of case analysis, a set of data is randomly generated, and the rationality and effectiveness of the model are proved by using GAMS/BARON through the comparative analysis of four kinds of scenes. In order to further illustrate the practical application of the model, this paper applies the model to acrylic factory to optimize the alternative project of the factory and schedule the production schedule in the next month. The results show that considering the influence of value fluctuation and flexible time horizon will be more in line with the long-term development strategy of enterprises and bring greater benefits. The model also provides a new idea and method for dealing with the problem of project portfolio under uncertain conditions.
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    Study on Evolution Game of Enterprise R&D Project Investment Path in Consideration of Decision Maker's Expectation
    WANG Chao-fa, CAI Xin, YANG De-lin
    2021, 29 (8):  116-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0378
    Abstract ( 220 )   PDF (2761KB) ( 109 )   Save
    The path choice behavior of enterprises in the investment of R&D projects is affected by the decision-maker's expectation. Based on the analysis of the investment path of R&D project and decision-maker's expectation, the enterprises are divided into state-owned enterprises and private enterprises according to the political relevance, and an evolutionary game model of the investment path considering decision-maker's expectation is built. The results show that whether private enterprises choose the optimal path affects the evolutionary equilibrium; For private enterprises, the difference of initial investment has exactly the same influence on the probability of choosing the optimal path. The number of optimistic decision-makers, the group size, the difference of decision-makers' expectation and the difference of initial investment have different effects on the probability of choosing the optimal path of the two types of firms. The main factors that influence the path choice of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are the number of optimistic decision-makers, the difference of expectations and the difference of initial investment. The above conclusions are helpful for enterprises and governments to implement management strategies better.
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    Project Buffer Allocation Method Based on Activity Flexibility
    ZHANG Jun-guang, JI Fei
    2021, 29 (8):  126-135.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0078
    Abstract ( 172 )   PDF (2489KB) ( 76 )   Save
    Whether project buffer should be centralized or decentralized regarding project characteristic isa core issue of project buffer management. Classic buffer management researchtries to get more optimized results by increasing the monitoring frequency or monitoring difficulty of the project, while ignores research on whether the project buffer should be centralized at the end of the project or distributed at the end of each activity. The existing buffer monitoring methods mainly focus on the centralized buffer management, that is, the buffer is centralized in the tail and then monitored. In addition, the activity flexibility reflects the ability of a project activity to start in time after the completion of its pre activity. Previous studies usually use percentage to describe this ability. However, this description is often difficult to be quantified. For example, for a 10 day activity, its flexibility to start is 50%. In the actual project planning and monitoring process, this flexibility to start expressed in probability is not easy to be operated. The proposed method therefore studies and compares these two buffer allocation models considering the activity flexibility, and discusses the conditions that need to be met for 100% starting flexibility. The simulation results demonstrate that the centralized buffer management can better grasp the possible early completion opportunities of the project activities by making the resources in place ahead of time. It indicates that the project duration is reduced by 8.67%, while the total cost is only increased by 2.02%, implying that the centralized model can effectively reduce the project duration. However, the decentralized buffer management model is an extension of existing buffer management research. For this model, the inventory cost does not increase compared with the centralized model, considering the flexibility of the project. The experimental results show that the project can obtains the optimal buffer dispersion degree of the project when the activity completion rate falls between 50% and 60% of the probability distribution function. For the first time, this paper combines resource planning with the flexibility of project activities, redefines the concept of flexibility of project activities and makes a quantitative study on it.
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    Evolutionary Game Research on Collaborative Innovation of Supply Chain Enterprises from Different Strategic Emerging Industries in China
    LI Bai-zhou, WANG Xue, SU Yi, LUO Xiao-fang
    2021, 29 (8):  136-147.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1509
    Abstract ( 321 )   PDF (1622KB) ( 237 )   Save
    Under the new mode of deep cross-integration of emerging technologies, collaborative innovation of supply chain enterprises is an important way to accelerate the extension of industrial chain to the high-end. To realize the technology chain driven by supply chain and the industrial chain, the collaborative innovation evolution of enterprises in supply chain between strategic emerging industries in China is studied in this paper. Collaborative innovation strategy among supply chain members is a dynamic game process in which dynamic adjustment is made on the basis of strategy selection of the other parties. When the two parties of the game make strategy selection, they are affected by the joint effect of various factors. Especially for enterprises in strategic emerging industries, these factors are targeted. Hence, social effects and market risk-return factors are considered based on the strategic and emerging nature of strategic emerging industries to construct an evolutionary game model of supply chain enterprises from different strategic emerging industries. Evolutionary game theory is used in this paper to study the influence of various factors, including database marketing maturity, and the selection of stability strategies for upstream and downstream enterprises is analyzed under market mechanism and government regulation respectively. Case simulation is used to verify and analyse the effect of government regulation when the market mechanism fails. The determination of case data is based on the reference to the previous research and combined with the actual situation of relevant industry experts and scholars to repeatedly discuss, and strive to generalize the simulation data. The specific value does not represent the actual amount, but represents the relative size of each parameter. The results show that factors such as maturity of database marketing, information flow and technology quantity generated by collaborative innovation, coefficient of technology benefits, coefficient of social benefits and barrier factor of profit and loss have positive effects on the evolution of the system towards collaborative innovation direction. When the market mechanism fails, the incentive effect of the government adopting the cost subsidy is more efficient and rapid. The driving force of the achievements reward is more durable. The combination of the two incentives is the best. Moderate supervision and penalties of below the free-rider income level do not guarantee fair competition among enterprises. The punishment above the threshold can effectively restrain the negative impact of free-rider earnings and prospective gains and losses, while driving the system to collaborative innovation. Moreover, the higher the penalty, the faster the system converges. In this paper, the characteristics of strategic emerging industries are taken into account when the game model is constructed, which is of certain reference significance for the future research. At the same time, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions respectively are put forward in the conclusion of this study. The implication has certain guiding value for the enterprise and the government to make decisions.
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    Model of Considering the Government Consumption-subsidy Policy For Consumer in the Closed-Loop Supply Chain
    MENG Li-jun, HUANG Zu-qing, ZHANG Bao-you, YANG Yu-xiang
    2021, 29 (8):  148-160.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0055
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (2804KB) ( 155 )   Save
    When the tide of large-scale used products begins to emerge, how to recycle these used products rationally? The development of remanufacturing industry can alleviate many problems caused by the heavy environmental load caused by a large number of used products. In order to encourage consumers to buy remanufactured product, the game models of the closed-loop supply chain with manufacturers, recyclers, consumers and governments which provides subsidy to consumer are constructed. Using the game theory, the optimal solutions of the models are obtained. The impacts of the government subsidy to consumer on supply chain profit, customer surplus, welfare of the whole society are discussed in this paper. The results indicate: (1) when the certain condition is sufficient, the government needs to provide the subsidy to consumer; (2) the government subsidy to consumer is distributed equally between manufacturer and consumers; (3) the supply chain profit, consumer surplus, welfare of the whole society can be improved by the government consumption-subsidy policy; (4) it would be better to improve the recovery rate of the CLSC if the recycling of used products would be done by the third-party recyclers;(5) the remanufactured product cannibilizes the market of new product when government offering the consumption-subsidy. At last, the conclusions of the models are verified by numerical examples. The contribution of this paper lies in not only consider the government consumption subsidies as endogenous variable and based on the perspective of consumer subsidies, to explore the presence of consumer subsidies policy effect, The results of the study can enrich the theory of closed-loop supply chain management and provide decision-making reference for related department of government and enterprise, promote the enterprise sustainable development.
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    Vertical Information Acquisition and Horizontal Information Sharing Strategy in a Supply Chain
    WU Jiang-hua, JIANG Fan
    2021, 29 (8):  161-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1736
    Abstract ( 351 )   PDF (1496KB) ( 212 )   Save
    It is commonly observed that a significant amount of information is being exchanged between suppliers and manufacturers, between manufacturers and retailers, between retailers and consumers, and also among competitors to gain competitive advantage. Many papers investigate horizontal information sharing among competitors in a one-level market in the absence of considering interactions between vertical parties. Most supply chains literatures study vertical information, in which horizontal information sharing is not considered. Some literatures in vertical information sharing considering horizontal competition show that downstream firms have no incentives to share information with the upstream firm voluntarily. If the upstream firm with more downstream firms' information is better off, the upstream can take the initiative to acquire information and share partial profit with downstream to incentive them to share information. However, the effect of vertical information acquisition on horizontal competitors' information exchange strategy is unclear. Therefore, the present study focuses on the incentives of information acquisition with horizontal information sharing in a supply chain environment. In this paper, the information acquisition, horizontal information sharing strategy and optimal pricing in a two-echelon supply chain, which consists of one upstream manufacturer and two downstream retailers are studied. The manufacturer offers same wholesale price to both retailers, and retailers are engaged in a Bertrand (price) competition by selling substitutable products. By constructing a Bertrand competition model, equilibrium order quantity and information sharing strategy for retailers are solved and the profit of the manufacturer, retailers and supply chain under different information acquisition strategies is analyzed and compared. In numerical study, an algorithm is developed to derive manufacturer's optimal wholesale price and the optimal profit of manufacturer, retailers and supply chain by using a Mathematica program. The study shows that full information sharing is retailers' dominant strategy. However, if downstream retailers share information with the manufacturer, the manufacturer will be better off but retailers will be worse off. Thus, there is no incentive for retailers to share information with upstream manufacturer voluntarily. Considering boundary equilibrium of retailers, it is shown that market variation and product substitutability play a significant role in supply chain's profit. When product substitutability is low, with information acquisition, the supply chain is better off and manufacturer can share partial profit with retailers to acquire retailers' information if the market variation is intermediate. When product substitutability is large enough, the supply chain is always better off with information acquisition. Moreover, it is shown that information acquisition strategy can be reversed when demand variation is intermediate or some equilibrium solutions are binding on zero. The model provides upstream manufacturer with optimal pricing and information acquisition strategies, as well as ways for downstream retailers to solve their own optimal sales prices, order quantities, and information sharing strategy.
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    Pricing Strategy of Dual Channel Supply Chain under Showrooming
    WANG Qian, ZHU Yuan-yuan, ZHONG Yong-guang
    2021, 29 (8):  174-182.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1601
    Abstract ( 282 )   PDF (1465KB) ( 127 )   Save
    Customers often evaluate products at a traditional retailer to identify their "best-fit" product but buy it for a lower price at an electronic channel. This transfer behavior by customers is referred to as "showrooming" and this is attracting increased attention both in business practice and in academic literature. According to this phenomenon, this research develops and evaluates a model of adaptive pricing strategy of dual channel supply chain, which consists of a manufacturer with electronic channel and a traditional channel retailer. A differentiation pricing strategy is first proposed by consumer utility theory. Taking the differentiation pricing strategy as the reference, the consistent pricing strategy and the limited pricing strategy are designed and these pricing strategies can eliminates the showrooming phenomenon. The game-theoretic framework and numerical simulation are used to analyze the three different pricing strategy in order to determine optimal pricing strategies for each player of dual channel supply chain under showrooming. The results show that compared with the differentiation pricing strategy, the consistent pricing strategy can reduce the price competition between the traditional channel and the electronic channel, and is always beneficial to the retailer. However, the consistent pricing strategy will also benefit manufacturers when traditional channel ha higher trouble costs and lower wholesale prices. In addition, whether the members of dual channel supply chain then choose to limited pricing strategy depends on price differentials between traditional and electronic channels and the manufacturer and retailer's profits increase with the decrease of the price differentials. Especially when the price differentials is relatively small, the limited pricing strategy can effectively reduce the price competition, thereby promoting dual channel supply chain members to achieve a win-win situation. Collectively, three compelling pricing strategies of the commonly witnessed practice among the members of dual channel supply chain are offered and can be used for reference to manufacturer and retailer.
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    Research on Purchasing and Quality Decision of Coopetition Supply Chain
    CAO Yu, WEI Pan-pan, LI Qing-song
    2021, 29 (8):  183-194.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2113
    Abstract ( 269 )   PDF (2179KB) ( 207 )   Save
    As economic globalization and supply chain networks have become more complex, the boundaries between cooperation and competition have become blurred. "Coopetition" has become a new business practice for many high-tech companies. Therefore, manufacturers should consider the problem that whether to purchase from a supplier with a competitive relationship, or to widen the difference between products by improving quality. The original equipment manufacturer(OEM) procurement and quality decisions in the presence of a competitive supplier with reliable supply capabilities and a non-competitive supplier with unreliable supply capabilities are studied. Three procurement models are considered, namely OEM procurement only from the competitive supplier, OEM procurement only from the non-competitive supplier and OEM dual sourcing procurement model, through theoretical and numerical simulation analysis of OEM brand effect, the competitive supplier' imitation ability and the influence of the supply capacity of the non-competitive supplier on decision variables and profits. It is found that the product quality of OEM decision-making improves, with the increase of its own brand effect, and the degree of competition of the competitive supplier could be reduced by the brand effect. Dual sourcing procurement is the best procurement strategy for OEM. When the imitating ability of the competitive supplier is small, the product quality of OEM decision-making improves as the imitating ability of the competitive supplier increases. When the imitating ability of the competitive supplier is large, the enhancement of its imitating ability will cause the OEM to reduce the quality of the product. The non-competitive supplier's ability to increase raw material supply does not necessarily bring higher profits for itself.
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    Analysis of Vendor Fraud Based on Signal Game
    RAN Mao-sheng, ZHANG Shi-guang, CHEN Xue-e
    2021, 29 (8):  195-205.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1672
    Abstract ( 216 )   PDF (1150KB) ( 120 )   Save
    As an effective resource allocation and price determination mechanism, auction can fully introduce market competition and is widely used in all aspects of social and economic activities. On the basis of the increasingly mature traditional auction, people began to gradually relax the auction hypothesis, thus obtaining results of practical significance. For example, in the classic auction theory summarized by Milgrom, it is assumed that there is no fraud. However, in reality, the general auction participants often lack accurate valuation information, and at the same time, the phenomena of opaque auction procedures and staggered rights relationship are common, which leads to the emergence of auction fraud. In the auction process with low transparency, sellers often choose to implement fraud to increase the selling price due to the temptation of interests, thus obtaining improper profits. The choice of the seller and the strategies of the bidders have become urgent research topics. The changes brought by the seller's fraud to the auction are studied in this paper. As one of the most effective trading mechanisms, it is obvious that there are signal transmission and game process in auction. In this paper, on the basis of previous models of fraud according to probability, a mechanism (realized by Bayesian theorem) for bidders to update their judgment according to the obtained information (seller selection) is added, thus a seller fraud model based on signal game is established. The model assumes two kinds of sellers, one is a fraudulent seller who will enjoy the first bid price in the second price auction using the "hold" bid method. One is an honest seller who will not use fraudulent means. At the beginning of the auction, the seller will choose whether the auction will be conducted at the first price or at the second price (during the auction at the first price, fraudulent sellers cannot commit fraudulent acts). The buyer first refers to the seller's choice and updates his judgment on the seller's type according to Bayesian theorem so as to formulate the quotation strategy. Further study the possible equilibrium solutions of the two strategies. Intuitively, fraudulent sellers will choose the second price auction while honest sellers will choose the first price auction. However, analysis shows that in some cases, fraudulent sellers will choose the first price auction and honest sellers will also choose the second price auction. This paper obtains an equilibrium solution under three circumstances. In some cases, fraudulent sellers will also choose the first price auction, while honest sellers will also choose the second price auction. At the same time, the higher the probability that the seller type is fraudulent, the lower the enthusiasm of the buyer. The higher the buyer's valuation of the goods, the more sensitive his quotation strategy is to the judgment of the seller's type. It has wider practical significance in analyzing and preventing fraudulent auctions.
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    Contracts Design in a Supply Chain under Capacity Constraints with Asymmetric Information
    ZENG Chen, YE Xu
    2021, 29 (8):  206-217.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0376
    Abstract ( 235 )   PDF (1047KB) ( 125 )   Save
    Capacity constraint is a common problem in supply chain. In reality, enterprises' capacity constraints are caused by many factors, such as the shortage of raw materials or spare parts, complicated production processes or backward technologies, and infectious diseases, but the final results are limited capacity. At the same time, there is also information asymmetry among the member enterprises of the supply chain, which is not only easy to lead to the imbalance of decision-making incentive of the supply chain, but also may exacerbate the adverse impact of capacity constraint on the supply chain. In this paper, it is considered that a supply chain consisting of a brand manufacturer who has limited capacity and a retailer. The retailer has private information about the consumers' mismatch cost. The optimal price decisions and contracts design under asymmetric information are analyzed. Further, the optimal decisions of both the brand manufacturer and the retailer under full information and asymmetric information are derived and compared.
    The main work in this paper includes four parts. At first, optimal contracts are proposed and the optimal pricing strategies and contract design under full information and asymmetric information are analyzed, respectively. Second, on this basis, the best contract option for the brand manufacturer under three types of wholesale contracts and the effects of the wholesale contract selection on the product demand is analyzed. Third, the optimal decisions of both the brand manufacturer and the retailer under full information and asymmetric information are compared. And the effect of wholesale contract selection on the information value of the supply chain enterprises and supply chain system. Finally, the information sharing policies between brand manufacturer and the retailer under three types of wholesale contracts is presented.
    The results show that, the two-part tariff contracting scheme, composed of a wholesale price and a fixed payment, can coordinate the supply chain perfectly under full information. By solving the optimization problem, the low wholesale price strategy, the fixed wholesale price strategy and the high wholesale price strategy for the brand manufacturer are presented under asymmetric information, respectively. By comparing and analyzing the profits of the brand manufacturer under the three types of wholesale contracts, it is further found that the brand manufacturer should choose low-price contract or high-price contract according to different market conditions, instead of fixed-price contract. The brand manufacturer's profit will be less due to lack of accurate information about consumer personal information leakage risk cost, while the asymmetry information may not decrease the profit of the whole supply chain or generates extra information rent. Moreover, when the brand manufacturer's bargaining power satisfy certain conditions under the high wholesale price strategy, the online retailer will reveal the private information voluntarily and share the supply chain's profit with the brand manufacturer.
    In summary, the optimal price decisions and contracts design under capacity constraints are studied by employing game theory. The findings in this paper can provide academic and practical insights for supply chain collaboration.
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    Optimization on the Procurement Logistics System of Importing Iron Ore Based on the “Port before Factory” Mode
    HUANG Xiao-ling, DAI Xia-mei, JI Guo-liang, CHEN Ji-hong, LUO Xun-jie
    2021, 29 (8):  218-228.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1796
    Abstract ( 197 )   PDF (2204KB) ( 146 )   Save
    China as a big steel producer, sufficient iron ore is a necessary condition for steel mills to ensure continuous production. On the one hand, due to low grade, difficult mining and the complexity of mineral processing of iron ore resources at home, it is necessary to import a large number of foreign high-quality iron ore to make up for domestic demand. However, foreign high-quality iron ore is monopolized by a few countries (such as Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India), which leads to high cost of procurement logistics of iron ore. On the other hand, a large number of iron ore require the steel mill to invest large amounts of money for expanding the yard. As a logistics node for overseas trade, the port cannot be ignored in supply chain of the imported iron ore. But existing shoreline resources of the port are not fully utilized. "Port before Factory", as its name implies, "the front is the port, the rear is the steel mill", means that the port and the steel mill sign a long-term contract. Under this mode, after the raw materials purchased by the steel mill are shipped to the unloading port, they are stored in the port yard. According to the production instructions of the steel mill, the port sends a certain amount of raw materials to the steel-making furnace of the steel mill in a certain transportation method on time. Or the products to be sold produced by the steel mill are directly stored in the port yard, where products are shipped according to the received sales instructions of the steel mill, thereby forming a "closed-loop" operation. The "Port before Factory" mode links the port with the steel mill's procurement, production and sales, and promotes the deep horizontal cooperation between the port and steel mill.
    Therefore, based on the "Port before Factory" mode, this paper constructs a combination optimization model with the selection of ship type, supplier and unloading port as variables to minimize the cost of iron ore procurement logistics. This model has the characteristics of multi-variable, multi-constraint and non-linearity. It is a large-scale combinatorial optimization model. Because the immune genetic algorithm(IGA) has wide applicability in solving such problems, it not only retains the search characteristics of genetic algorithms, but also utilizes the adaptive characteristics of the multi-mechanism of immune algorithm to solve the optimal solution of multi-objective functions. To a large extent, it avoids "premature convergence" to local extremum. Therefore, the IGA is used to solve the model in this paper.
    In order to verify the superiority of the "Port before Factory" mode, relevant data such as ore suppliers, docking ports, ship types, steel mills, etc. were collected. Substituting these data into the model, the cost value obtained by usingIGA and MATLABis 44.1 billion yuan. In the traditional mode, the whole process cost of procurement under the same conditions is 52.2 billion. The former saved 15.5% of the cost compared to the latter. In addition, the combination optimization scheme shows that: a) Australia and Brazil are China's major iron ore suppliers, accounting for about 90% of orders, which is determined by their supply capacity, distance advantage and large ships; b) Port B and port C respectively undertake 57.4% and 42.6% of iron ore, of which Australia prefers to choose port C, Brazil mainly berths in port B; (c) According to port natural and facilities conditions, Panamax and Capesize small vessels are more likely to berth in port C, while Vloc and Valemax large vessels are more likely to choose port B. To sum up, it provides a theoretical basis for the implementation of the "Port before Factory" mode.
    Today, in the era of "large wharf, large chemical industry and large steel", the successful practice of "Port before Factory" mode makes "back factory" no longer limited to steel enterprises, and can be extended to "large chemical industry, large oil refining" and other large users and large systems, so as to promote the win-win situation of industry and port, share social responsibility-environmental protection, and implement the goal of sustainable development.
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    Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Group Decision Making Approach Based on the Hesitancy Degrees and Correlation Coefficient
    PENG You, LIU Xiao-he, SUN Jian-bo
    2021, 29 (8):  229-240.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0207
    Abstract ( 278 )   PDF (969KB) ( 207 )   Save
    A novel MAGDM method based on the correlation coefficient and hesitancy degrees under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environmentis proposed. Firstly, the conceptions of individual hesitancy degree and group hesitancy degree are put forward to overcome the restrictions of the methodology of "majority rule". Secondly, the correlation coefficients of IVIFN are utilized to measure the similarity instead of distance functions in order to alleviate the drawbacks that donot consider the parameters of hesitancy. Thirdly, the subjective assignment methods are extended on utilizing the IVIFN values in order to better address the uncertainties in the MAGDM problem. Finally, TOPSIS and LP optimization method are used to calculate the optimal attribute weight, which ensures more optimal and accurate weights. A real-word application example has been presented to demonstrate the working of the proposed methodology. Moreover, a thorough comparison has been done with related existing works in order to show the validity of this methodology.
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    Research on Incentive Mechanism of Customer Knowledge Sharing Based on the Structure of Knowledge
    LIU Lin, WANG Jiu-he
    2021, 29 (8):  241-248.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1618
    Abstract ( 377 )   PDF (1084KB) ( 174 )   Save
    Knowledge has gradually replaced capital and resources as an important source for companies to acquire and maintain competitive advantage in the new business environment. Compared with capital and resources, the input of knowledge can create more benefits and sustainability for companies. As the core activity of knowledge management and the key of knowledge innovation, knowledge sharing has attracted the attention from academic and business circles. With the application of Internet technologies such as Big Data and Internet of Things and the development of "consumer sovereignty theory", the role of the customer has changed from passive value recipients to value leaders who participates in the value creation activities of the company. The participation of customers has injected new momentum into the company's knowledge sharing. At the same time, the sharing of customer knowledge contributes significantly to the company's product innovation, service innovation and management innovation. Therefore, the research on customer knowledge sharing has important theoretical and practical significance.
    At present, the research on the incentive mechanism of knowledge sharing is mainly divided into the incentive mechanism of explicit knowledge sharing and the incentive mechanism of tacit knowledge sharing. However, in the process of knowledge sharing, the knowledge shared contains both explicit and tacit knowledge, it is unreasonable to assume that the knowledge shared is all explicit or tacit. Then, how to formulate the proportion of income distribution based on the composition of knowledgesharedis a problem to be solved. Based on this, from the perspective of the structure of knowledgeshared, an incentive mechanism model of customer knowledge sharing based on principal-agent theory is established in this paper.
    The influences of the proportion of explicit knowledge and tacit knowledge on the effort level ofcustomer knowledge sharing and income distribution coefficient under the condition of information symmetry and information asymmetry are analyzed, and the model is simulated and analyzed by MATLAB software. The results show that (1) the customer's effort level is related to the composition of shared knowledge and the effort level reaches the maximum value when the ratio of explicit knowledge and tacit knowledge are both 0.5;(2) when the knowledge composition is the same, the level of effort in the case of information asymmetry is lower than the level of effort in the case of information symmetry; (3) the income distribution coefficient is related to the composition of shared knowledgeand the income distribution coefficient reaches the maximum value when the proportion of tacit knowledge is 1;(4) the income distribution coefficient is inversely proportional to the degree of risk aversion. Based on this, we propose that the enterprise should develop a customer knowledge sharing evaluation mechanism and benefit distribution mechanism based on the structure of knowledge shared and adjust the income distribution coefficient according to the degree of customers' risk aversion, which can provide theoretical guidance for the formulation and implementation of incentive mechanism ofcustomer knowledge sharing.
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