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主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 January 2020, Volume 28 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    A Cooperative Game Model for International Water Sharing Problems
    WANG Xian-jia, LIU Jia
    2020, 28 (1):  1-9.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.001
    Abstract ( 758 )   PDF (1048KB) ( 675 )   Save
    The scarcity of water resources leads to all kinds of conflicts and contradictions in international water sharing problems. Traditional gametheory models cannot be used to solve such problems when consideringthe effect of the flow of the river and the formation of coalitions between the players. In order to find a reasonable allocation scheme among all stakeholders for such problems, a cooperative game model is proposed and international water sharing problems are analyzed in which various stakeholders compete and cooperate with each other. In this paper, a dynamic bargaining model is used to find the worth of all coalitions. Then, by using the Nash bargaining method, the gains of players in each coalition are found. Finally, by comparing the total utility of all stakeholders under various schemes, the reasonable allocation for international water sharing problems can be found. Our research shows that:Influenced by the environment with externalities, partial cooperation among all stakeholders may be more effective than full cooperationscheme, and the optimal allocation in copetition scheme may be better than the optimal allocation in full cooperation scheme. When studying the problem of water resource allocation in flowing basins, the basic model and the solution of this paper can provide a reasonable distribution scheme when considering that coalitions can be formed between players and the worth of coalition have externalities.
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    The Regional Industrial Boundary and the Optimal Factor Allocation Structure based on Manufacturer's Theory
    LIU Kan, WANG Hong-yu, BAI Shi-zhen
    2020, 28 (1):  10-18.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.002
    Abstract ( 376 )   PDF (1706KB) ( 137 )   Save
    The core of regional economic development is the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the optimal allocation of resources. Under the background that global economic structure needs to be optimized and element resources are less and less, how to allocate and guide the allocation of regional resources rationally, as well as how to optimize the direction of industrial development and determine industrial development strategies, including emerging industries, is a new issue each region faced. Firstly, under the background of economic globalization and zero marginal cost trends, regional industry development is no longer confined to regional internal resource endowments, resource mobility is strengthened, and regional industrial development options are more extensive and flexible. In addition, large changes of industrial production costs have taken place. Due to the fact that the increasing shortage of resource elements and economic development have accelerated the increase of labor costs and capital costs, the distribution of production factors in the industry will also need to be changed. Region have common characteristics as manufacturers. That is the biggest goal of the region is to maximize economic growth and the regional economic activities are also the process of effectively allocating various resource elements to form layout of different industries. The regional industrial structure is similar with product structure of manufacturers. Therefore, the design of regional industry development strategy and resource input is in line with the theory of manufacturers and is the result of the resource cost effect under the market economy. Based on vendor theory, using Cobb Douglass's production function, equal-cost curve, etc., taking the factors such as production costs and transaction cost into account, the regional industry boundary model and the industry's best factor allocation structure model are constructed. It creates an innovation research paradigm of the regional industrial upgrading strategy under the global trend of resource and commodity, provides theoretical guidance for the study of regional industrial upgrading strategies and resource allocation under the new normal economy, and supplies practical basis for industrial development strategies of the region, and the industrial pattern under the trend of zero marginal cost society has been initially explored. According to the study, the industrial boundary can reflect the long-term evolution of the regional industry, the industrial boundary is the optimal scale of industrial development under a complete market economy; the resource allocation pattern of a regional industry depends on the resource occupation and resource contribution of the industry, besides, the optimal allocation structure is affected by the relative contribution proportion and relative cost of each resource; The relationship between industry boundary and cost depends on if the industry is in the scale economy or not. Under the state of scale economy, industry boundary has a positive correlation with production costs and a negative correlation with transaction costs. With analysis of agricultural boundaries and the optimal allocation of agricultural elements, using the ten-year data from ten sample areas in the China Statistical Yearbook (2003-2012), the industrial boundary model and the industry's best factor allocation structure model were tested to be correct. At the same time, the limitations of agricultural development are found, and the best resource allocation scheme for agriculture are proposed, that is, to increase the investment in mechanical kinetic energy.
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    Managerial Equity Incentives and the Pricing of Firms’ Future Earnings——Empirical Evidence from Chinese Capital Markets
    FU Qiang, HU Wen-xiu, ZHANG Wei-guo
    2020, 28 (1):  19-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1375
    Abstract ( 553 )   PDF (1513KB) ( 223 )   Save
    Classic asset pricing theory equate stock prices with the present value of expected future dividends, discounted at appropriate discount rates. Hence, in an efficient stock market, prices change to reflect revisions in the investors' expectations about firms' future earnings. Whether firms' future earnings are fully impounded into the current stock prices depends on investors' ability to predict it. Prior studies have shown that firm's disclosure activity significantly affect investors' ability to predict future earnings, specifically, firms with relatively higher earnings quality and more informative voluntary disclosures assist investors in better pricing future earnings.
    Meanwhile, firm's disclosure activity is affected by managerial equity incentives (MEIs). On the one hand, equity incentives can improve the firms' earnings quality and encourage managers to voluntarily provide additional private information to the market. On the other hand, equity incentives can induce managers to manipulate their firms' earnings and voluntary disclosure in order to maximize their remuneration. If equity incentives encourage managers to provide higher quality earnings or more informative voluntary disclosure to the market, investors will be better able to predict future earnings. In contrast, if equity incentives induce managers to manipulate their firms' earnings and voluntary disclosure, it will be difficult for investors to predict future earnings. Which effect dominates in a cross-sectional setting is an unanswered, empirical question that this paper investigate.
    Using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies that implemented equity incentives during 2006-2016, it is found that MEIs strengthens the association between current returns and future earnings, indicating that MEIs help investors to better price firms' future earnings. By decomposing future earnings into industry-wide and firm-specific components, it is found that MEIs do not influence investors pricing industry-wide component of future earnings, but it accelerate the pricing of firm-specific future earnings. In addition, managerial stock incentives help investors to better price future earnings and accelerate the pricing of firm-specific future earning, but option incentives do not. This paper offers two main contributions. First, it reveals the micro-mechanism that how MEIs assist investors in better pricing future earnings. Second, given that investor's ability to price future earnings reflects the information efficiency of the stock market, it provides an important theoretical reference for regulators to improve the information efficiency of Chinese stock market.
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    Method of Selecting Project Risk Response Strategies Considering Total Risk Interdependence
    ZHANG Yao, SUN Meng-yang, GUAN Xin
    2020, 28 (1):  32-44.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.003
    Abstract ( 458 )   PDF (2589KB) ( 404 )   Save
    In practice, projects are exposed to multiple risks. If the risks occur during project execution, the poor performance with increasing cost, time delays and quality flaws will appear. Thus, to ensure the success of projects, implementing appropriate project risk response strategies is especially significant. According to the literature review, in most of the existing studies focusing on selecting project risk response strategies, project risks are assumed to be independent. Only a few studies have paid attention to selecting project risk response strategies considering risk interdependences, in which only unfavorable direct risk interdependences are considered. However, in practice, there also exist indirect interdependences and favorable interdependences among project risks, which may affect the risk response decision. Thus, it is important to measure the different types of risk interdependences and then explore their effects on project risk response decision from practical and academic perspectives. In this paper, a method is proposed to measure the degrees of different types of risk interdependences and the total interdependence degree of each project risk, and an optimization model is constructed to select proper project risk response strategies considering the total risk interdependences.
    Firstly, the total interdependences between project risks are analyzed and measured by combining the MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique) method and DEMATEL (the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method. Specifically, the MACBETH method is used to analyze and measure the degrees of the direct interdependences between project risks and the DEMATEL method is used to calculate the total interdependence degree of each project risk. Then, an optimization model considering the project manager's (PM's) risk attitude is constructed to select proper project risk response strategies. In the model, the objective function is to maximize the PM's expected utility, which includes utility function of the PM and weighting function of the risks. Considering that the PM's risk attitude is usually risk averse and can be expressed by concave utility function,exponential utility function is adopted in this paper. In the model, the importance of different risk is expressed by weighting function, which is composed of the total interdependence degree of the project risk and expected loss of the project risk. The constraint of the optimization model is used to meet the requirement of risk response budget. Finally, an actual case of a subway project in G city is conducted to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. For the sake of investigating the effects of different risk interdependences and risk response budgets on risk response decision, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. In addition, pairwise comparative analyses of four situations including the direct interdependence, the unfavorable direct interdependence, the total interdependence and the unfavorable total interdependence are conducted.
    Some conclusions are obtained from the results of the case study, the sensitivity analysis and pairwise comparative analyses. First, there exists an optimal risk response budget in the decision process of project risk response. Second, the optimal set of project risk response strategies and the PM's expected utility is affected by PM's riskattitude and PM's attention on risk interdependence. Thus, it is necessary to consider PM's risk attitude and the risk interdependence into actual project risk response decision. Third, the PM's expected utility with the consideration of the total risk interdependence is greater than that only considering the direct risk interdependence, and the expected utility considering the unfavorable risk interdependence is larger than that considering favorable risk interdependence. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the indirect risk interdependence while the favorable risk interdependence can be neglected in the decision-making process of selecting project risk response strategies. The conclusions can provide decision support for selecting project risk response strategies in practice and our research can inspire some insights for the subsequent research focusing on project risk response considering different risk interdependences.
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    Study on Regime Transition and Nonlinear Dynamic Adjustment Behavior of HogIndustry Chain Price in China
    ZHANG Min, YU Le-an, LIU Feng-gen
    2020, 28 (1):  45-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.004
    Abstract ( 408 )   PDF (1746KB) ( 166 )   Save
    Precisely characterizing the dynamic behavior feature of hog industry chain is the basis of predicting the hog price trend, and the important basis for the government to formulate feasible policies to stabilize the hog price as well. However, from the perspective of relevant studies at home and abroad, no matter it is a linear model such as SVAR model, error correction model, GARCH model family, or a time series decomposition method such as HP, BP filtering method, EMD decomposition and B-N decomposition method, it only analyzes the external fluctuation appearance of hog market price time series,which makes it impossible to reveal the structural change characteristics and internal change laws of the hog market price time series behavior.This is also an important reason for the paradox that a series of policies to stabilize the hog price have been introduced intensely since 2006 in China, but the price appears abnormal fluctuation instead.
    Therefore, based on the monthly data of hog price and pork price in China from June 1994 to June 2018, the hog price and pork price sequences are divided by using the multi-regime smooth transition autoregressive model to analyze the regime system transition characteristics. Then, the nonlinear dynamic adjustment behavior of hog price and pork price is further studied via the analysis of the characteristic root of the multi-regime smooth transition autoregressive estimation equation and nonlinear impulse response. It systematically describes the regime transition and nonlinear dynamic adjustment behavior of the hog price industry chain.
    The results show that, the hog price follows a smooth transition process of three-regime, while the pork price is a smooth transition process of four-regime.The hog price has long duration only in "low-price regime" and "high-price regime", while the pork price has long duration in "depressed price regime","price firm regime" and "price recovery regime".From the perspective of regime transition path, the hog price can easily fall rapidly from the middle price to the low price, and the pork price tends to transfer from "price slump regime"to "depressed price regime"and from "price recovery regime" to "price firm regime".The impact of random shock on pork price is persistent and has a weak "self-regulation mechanism", and the impact on hog price is persistent but lacks "self-regulation mechanism". In the short term, random shock has a positive effect on the price fluctuation of hog market. In the long term, random shock has a negative effect on hog price and a positive effect on pork price.These conclusions provide important decision-making basis for the government to further optimize the policy of hog price fluctuation.
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    Research on Joint Strategy of Order and Pre-sale of Perishable Goods Based on Option
    TANG Zhen-yu, LUO Xin-xing, CHEN Xiao-hong, LIU Hai-ying
    2020, 28 (1):  57-67.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1593
    Abstract ( 413 )   PDF (1420KB) ( 139 )   Save
    How to deal with the fluctuation of demand is an unavoidable problem for enterprises. The excess inventory or product out-of-stock caused by uncertain demand usually brings great risks to the normal operation of the enterprise. To this end, many strategies are proposed by industry and academia to reduce demand risk, which can be summarized into two main categories:on the one hand, the procurement flexibility should be increased as much as possible. Currently, quantity discount contract, quantity elasticity contract, repurchase contract are widely used; on the other hand, random demand should be transformed into definited demand as far as possible. At present, pre-sale strategy is widely used.
    Generally, consumers can enjoy certain discount through pre-order. However, consumers may have a far cry from their psychological expectations after obtaining the products, so there are certain risks in pre-sale transaction. At present, many enterprises are skilled in applying option for purchasing,but option ideas are applied by few companies in pre-sale strategy. In fact, consumers are uncertainty about the valuation of commodities in the pre-sale phase. the actual utility value of consumers may be negative after getting the products. Therefore, when the option pre-sale strategies are offered by retailer, if the products can not reach the expected level of consumers, the pre-purchased consumers can give up exercising option to reduce risks. A kind of perishable product whose transport time affects the loss rate is considered in this paper. In the case of uncertain consumer valuation, the joint ordering and pre-selling strategy of retailer from the perspective of integration are studied. Retailer can purchase perishable items through wholesale price ordering or combined ordering, and consumers can choice discount pre-sale or option pre-sale which provided by retailer. Several different joint strategies are analyzed in detail through model construction. The optimal order quantity and pre-selling price under different strategies and the application range of different strategies are solved. Finally, the different combination strategies are compared.
    The results show that the optimal total ordering quantity of retailer with combined ordering mode is higher than that with wholesale price ordering mode. The maximum expected profit of retailer under combined ordering mode is larger than that under wholesale price ordering mode. The retailer's order quantity within discount pre-sale strategy is larger than that within option pre-sale strategy; the exercise price in option pre-sale strategy is larger than that in discount pre-sale strategy. It is found that the risk of inventory backlog and product shortage caused by demand fluctuation can be reduced effectively through flexible purchase combined with option pre-sale, and the application range of option pre-sale strategy is broader than that of discount pre-sale strategy. The higher the economic value of products, the better it is for retailer and consumers to apply option pre-sale strategy. The results obtained from this paper can provide guidance for relevant studies and firms in practice.
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    Risk Control of Supply Chain Finance based on Revenuesharing-bidirectional Option Contract
    JIN Xiang-shu, YUAN Wen-yan, WU Jun, LI Jian, WANG Ya-jing
    2020, 28 (1):  68-78.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.005
    Abstract ( 447 )   PDF (1934KB) ( 243 )   Save
    As the small and medium enterprises(SMEs) involved in supply chain, measuring their default risk becomes a critical issue for commercial bank to enhance their profitability in this fierce competition. Among the enterprises in supply chain, the core company plays an important role that could help SMEs obtain loans more successfully that can make supply chain finance operate more efficiently.
    A two-echelon supply chain consisting of a distributor (the core company) and a retailer (the small and medium enterprise) is investigated in this paper. According to the literature review, revenue sharing-bidirectional option contract could coordinate supply chain and improve the income of the retailer and the distributor. Furthermore, it is straightforward that the retailer's default risk will be reduced if the income of the retailer is improved. Hence, the distributor and the retailer would like to introduce revenue sharing-bidirectional option contract. Based on the classical newsvendor model, the probability of retailer's default under the revenue sharing-bidirectional option contract is calculated.Then the optimal initial order quantity, the optimal quantity of option purchased by the retailer, the optimal revenue sharing ratio, the range of revenue sharing ratio, and the profit of each party are obtained respectively. Finally, some numerical examples are conducted and the impact of some key parameters is analyzed such as the option execution price, the profit sharing ratio, and the bank pledge rate. It can be found that the default probability will increase with the increase of the proportion coefficient of revenue sharing, the guarantee rate, and the purchase price of unit option, among which the proportion coefficient of revenue sharing has the largest impact on the default probability, followed by the guarantee rate and finally the purchase price of unit option. As the execution price of put option increases, the probability of the retailer's default will decrease.
    This paper aims at illustrating how the proposed model can be applied to assess small enterprises default risk and exploring the risk control of supply chain finance based on revenue sharing-bidirectional option contract.The findings of the paper provide management insights for the bank and the enterprises.
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    The Purchasing and Financing Strategies of Capital-constrained Retailer under Different Channel Power Structures
    HUANG Shuai, FAN Zhi-ping
    2020, 28 (1):  79-88.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.006
    Abstract ( 476 )   PDF (2152KB) ( 232 )   Save
    When a retailer confronts with the fund shortage problem, the retailer often purchases goods with the help of supply chain financing. There are two popular purchasing and financing modes for the capital-constrained retailer, one is trade credit mode (i.e. the retailer purchases directly from the supplier and accepts his service of delay in payment), and the other is 3PL financing service mode (i.e. the 3PL firm helps the retailer purchase from supplier and lends him). In addition, there are different channel power structures in market. Therefore, it is worth to study purchasing and financing strategies of retailer in a supply chain consisting of one supplier, one 3PL firm and one capital-constrained retailer under different channel power structures and financing modes.
    In this paper, it is assumed that the supply chain comprises a supplier, a 3PL firm and a capital-constrained retailer. Three kinds of channel power structures are considered, namely S power structure (i.e. the supplier is the leader), L power structure (i.e. the 3PL firm is the leader) and N power structure (i.e. the supplier and the 3PL firm are both the leaders). The supplier can provide the trade credit service and the 3PL firm can offer the 3PL financing service for retailer. Furthermore, the Stackelberg games are analyzed and obtain the supplier's optimal wholesale price, the 3PL's optimal transportation fee and the retailer's optimal sale price under different channel power structures and financing modes are obtained, respectively. Further, by comparing the profits of all supply chain participants in different cases, the purchasing and financing strategies of capital-constrained retailer are analyzed. Finally, some numerical studies are conducted to show the impacts of the retailer's initial capital on the retailer's profit, the 3PL's profit and the profit of supplier, and to analyze the impacts of 3PL's interest rate on the pricing strategies of all supply chain participants.
    This paper shows several important results through the theoretical analysis. First, under the S power structure, the retailer should choose the trade credit mode; under the L power structure, the retailer should choose the 3PL financing service mode; under the N power structure, the retailer should choose the financing mode with the higher interest rate. Second, the supplier and the 3PL firm should both earlier announce their own pricing strategies; under the N power structure, the supplier and the 3PL firm should both increase their own interest rates. Last, the supplier obtains the highest profit under S power structure when he offers financing service for retailer; the 3PL firm obtains the highest profit under L power structure when he offers financing service for retailer.
    Two useful managerial implications are obtained based on our study. On the one hand, the capital-constrained retailer should consider the channel power structure in market when he chooses the financing mode. On the other hand, the supplier and the 3PL firm should improve their own ability to obtain dominant right in market, which can bring the higher profit for them.
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    Collaborative Replenishment Decision Base on Supply-hub in Uncertain Environment
    ZHANG Ling-rong, CUI Chun-yue, LI Yun-feng
    2020, 28 (1):  89-100.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.007
    Abstract ( 450 )   PDF (2873KB) ( 133 )   Save
    The uncertain lead time become an important factor in replenishment decision on account of component innovation and the dynamic of supplier selection. The uncertain lead time are introduced into the study of Supply-hub collaborative replenishment to investigate the issue of supply hub cooperative replenishment decision making for two customized products with three supplier and single manufacturers, under the random lead time and the uncertain demand, and the factor of component matching is taken into consider. Three replenishment strategies are proposed and supply chain collaborative replenishment models under different strategies were established. The results of comparing the supply chain cost changes under different strategies show that there is a unique optimal replenishment volume for all three replenishment strategies. Two kinds of cooperative replenishment strategies based on Supply-hub (CRP and JRP) and independent replenishment strategies based on decentralized decision (DRP) have their own advantages, however, CRP is better than JRP. Finally, MATLAB is used to analyze the example and verify the conclusion, and the CRP can effectively reduce the risk of increasing the demand caused by the uncertainty of demand. The impact of the lead-time fluctuation on the expected operating costs of the supply chain is higher than the impact of the lead-time fluctuations in the supply chain. Therefore, more attention is paid to the lead-time of the general part when choosing the replenishment strategy for the supply chain.Our research has expanded the modelofsupply chain collaborative replenishment and provided reference for the supply-hub application in manufacturing customized supply chain inventory management.
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    Brand Value, Fairness Concern and Contract Coordination on the Shipping Supply Chain
    JIANG Bao, LI Qiu-shi, LI Jian
    2020, 28 (1):  101-112.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.008
    Abstract ( 445 )   PDF (1065KB) ( 159 )   Save
    The shipping volume fluctuation of international trade makes the competition among the shipping line companies become more and more fierce. On the shipping supply chain the shipping line companies usuallyneed to pay huge investment cost to improve the brand value for keeping the market share, which will lead to their ‘fairness concern’ on the return of brand investment. When shipping line companiesmake decision concerning fairness, not based on complete rationality,it will affect the benefit and efficiency of the whole shipping supply chain. In this paper, the theory of behavioral economics is applied to analyze the effect on the decision making of parties on the shipping supply chain with the shipping line companies' ‘fairness concern’.
    This paperstudies the two level shipping supply chain composed of single shipping company and single freight forwarder. It sets up game theory models under three decision-making situationsincluding the centralized decision-making, the decentralized under complete rationality, and the decentralized under the fair concern, and calculate and compare the equilibrium strategy of all parties in the shipping supply chain in the three different situations. The influence of the fairness concern behavior of the shipping company on the operation decision of all parties on the shipping supply chain is discussed. Finally, the cooperation mode and coordination mechanism of the shipping supply chain with the shipping line companies concerning fairness are analyzed.
    The results show that:1) the fair concern of shipping line company improves its profit share ratio on the shipping supply chain, but reduces the profit and efficiency of the whole shipping supply chain; 2) with the increase of investment intention, the negative impact of the fairness concerns of shipping company is more obvious on the decisions and profits of the shipping supply chain; 3) Revenue sharing cost sharing contract can eliminate the negative effect offair concern and optimize the income and efficiency of all parties on the shipping supply chain.
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    Fuzzy Game Analysis of Government Participation in Supervision Behavior and the Third Party International Environmental Audit of Enterprise
    QU Guo-hua, LIU Xue, LI Yue-jiao, QU Wei-hua, LI Shi-yu, ZHANG Qiang
    2020, 28 (1):  113-121.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.009
    Abstract ( 405 )   PDF (951KB) ( 199 )   Save
    Based on triangular fuzzy number, the game model is constructed to solve the problem of can not making accurate judements on both government supervision and enterprises taking part in the third party international environmental audit payoffs in game analysis. The payoffs are expressed with triangular fuzzy numbers,which are better to be described with inaccurate information. The influencing factors and the mechanism of the game strategy are discussed between the government and the polluting enterprises.The conditions of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium and the mixed strategy equilibrium are pointed out and some advice is given for the implementation of game mode. Then, a numerical example is given to verify the correctness and feasibility of the conclusion by the means of structural element method, introducing the concept of the triangular fuzzy number facilitates suiting the applications and extending the application background of the third party international environmental audit. The results show that the government's guidance to consumer consumption and the punishment to polluting enterprises play an important role in deciding whether to join the third party international environmental audit for enterprises.
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    Fuzzy Fusion Model of Consumers’ Perceived Trust Based on Experience and Recommendation in Social Commerce
    YIN Jin, HU Xiang-pei, ZHENG Yi, ZHOU Zi-xuan
    2020, 28 (1):  122-133.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.010
    Abstract ( 553 )   PDF (1311KB) ( 400 )   Save
    With the booming of social commerce in recent years, trust fusion in social networks has become a crucial factor in consumer's decision making. Consumers establish perceived trust based on personal experience and recommendation, whose essence is multi-sources trust fusion. Trust fusion model originating from computer science has been fully analyzed by scholars worldwide. In social commerce, similarities between new decision making and experiential decision making, as well as recommendations play an important role in consumers' decision making. However, some new challenges have emerged in social commerce due to the fuzziness and multi-sources of consumers' perceived trust. Therefore, multi-sources trust fusion of consumers' trust in social commerce needs to be further analyzed.
    Focusing on the fuzziness of consumers' perceived trust, a fuzzy trust fusion model is established by combining cased-based decision theory (CBDT) and multi-attribute decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets. Consumers' perceived trust stemmed from experience and recommendation, hence our model is composed of three parts in working process:empirical trust calculation, recommendation trust calculation and trust fusion of both these two. The key influencing factors of perceived trust have been integrated into multi-attribute decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets, whereas empirical trust and recommendation trust have been calculated respectively within the framework of CBDT, both fused grounded on anchoring effect.
    The effectiveness of our model has been tested by case study and data analysis. The impact of personal experience, similarity and consensus operator on perceived trust has been illustrated to reveal the process of transformation from experience and recommendation to perceived trust. In the data analysis, the data has been collected by questionnaire, and the calculation result of perceived trust has been compared with the survey data. The viability and effectiveness of our results on perceived trust were validated in comparison and improved by prediction accuracy.
    Combining decision maker's experience and recommendation, our model merge several methods such as CBDT and intuitionistic fuzzy sets which enable us to refine the trust fusion model research with the frame and new perspectives. With the assistance of the proposed method for perceived trust measurement, a new way for E-commerce platform is provided to make precise marketing strategy through consumers' online reviews and related social relationship.
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    A Novel Sort Method for Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy MAGDM with Choquet Bonferroni Means
    LUO Shi-hua, LIU Jun
    2020, 28 (1):  134-143.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.011
    Abstract ( 411 )   PDF (1343KB) ( 285 )   Save
    Multiple attribute group decision making(MAGDM) is a common optimal estimation method that based on the ranking of aggregation operators. In this essay, a Novel Sort Method in MAGDM based on Choquet Bonferroni Means is proposed for Trapezoidal Intuitionistic Fuzzy with the input arguments as not independent. At the very beginning the basic principle and computation rule of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy sets are introduced. Secondly, the trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet Bonferroni Normalized weighted harmonic mean (TrIFCBNWHM) is presented based on the ability of Choquet integral converts the interaction between decision information into the weight information of TrIFNs. What is more, its desirable properties are discussed in this section. Furthermore, a ranking index model based on the centroid, mean and ambiguity of each alternative TrIFNs is constructed. Finally, a practical example has been presented to illustrate the proposed MAGDM technique and show that it is an effective tool to reveal the importance of each attribute and the correlations among them in MAGDM problems. The data that applied in this essay are captured from the previous researches. The construction of the multi-attribute group decision making method with trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment makes fuzzy decision making more scientific, it may gather more research attention in this field, and constantly adds new characteristics in the potential applications of economics, statistics and other research disciplines.
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    Grey System Modeling Technology for Early Prediction and Warning of Human Diseases
    ZENG Bo, LIU Si-feng, BAI Yun, ZHOU Meng
    2020, 28 (1):  144-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.012
    Abstract ( 495 )   PDF (1536KB) ( 442 )   Save
    Traditional health tests are often executed by horizontal comparisons and static analyses of a single physical examination result. The health condition and physical state are judged only based on the values of physical examination indicators, without the involvement of individual difference. Hence the potential disease cannot be discovered timely. Since the data of physical examination indicators from an individual are featured by small sample size, uncertain information, data isomerism and complicated influence factors, traditional mathematical models based on big data cannot be applied for such systems with a small data size. To this end, a novel grey system model, HIGM(1,1) for short, is established to forecast the development tendency of main human health indicators and then accomplish the dynamical modeling and tendency analysis of such human health indicators. Consequently, the changing tendency of physical indicators and potential disease can be obtained. The new HIGM(1,1) model is employed to forecast the index of serum creatinine which can reflect body kidney functions. The results show that the simulation and prediction errors of serum creatinine are less than those of the classical GM(1,1) model. The study findings have the important significance on promoting physical examination effect and intensifying physical examination meaning between grey theory and practical problems.
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    Construction and Application of GM(1,1) Power Model based on the Optimized Initial Condition
    DING Song, LI Ruo-jin, DANG Yao-guo
    2020, 28 (1):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.013
    Abstract ( 430 )   PDF (1761KB) ( 155 )   Save
    The GM(1,1) power model has been used in many fields, such as electricity loading forecast, industrial waste emissions, and urban water consumption, ever since it was proposed by professor Deng.Specifically, this model has wide applications, because it has a dynamic adaptive power index, which can adapt to different characteristics of various sequences. However, this model still has its drawbacks that the power exponent is difficult to obtain and the conventional initial condition does not satisfy the principle of new information priority. Therefore, large error gap exists between forecasts and original observations. To this end, approaches on collaborative optimization of power exponent and initial condition are put forward to obtain a superior grey power model. The detailed procedures for this novel can be described as follows.
    Initially, based on the principle of new information priority, the function of controlling weight is introduced to optimize the initial condition, which reflects the effect of new-old information on the trend of the system together with the max use of existing information and expresses the changing law. Subsequently, the non-linear optimized model is constructed to optimize the power exponent and initial condition together with the target of minimizing the average relative error. Then the optimal initial condition and power index can be obtained. Lastly, this new proposed grey power model is employed to forecast the amount of online shopper, compared with three competing models, namely GPM(1,1,x(1)(1)), GPM(1,1,x(1)(n)), and GPM(1,1,β). Experimental results illustrate that the novel optimized model achieves the best performance among the four models and gets the minimum value of average relative error theoretically. Therefore, this novel grey model can be used for future amount prediction of China's online shopper.
    For the future forecasts, the novel grey power model having optimized initial condition and optimal power exponent is utilized to estimate the amount of China's online shopper from 2016 to 2020. Additionally, the real observations from 2016 to 2018 are collected to match the forecasted values. The compared results show that the errors between forecasts and original data from 2016 to 2018 are all less than 10%, which means the great performance of this proposed model. Therefore, conclusions can be made that this newly designed grey power model has good validity and practicability and it can be further used in other fields.Moreover, according to the predicted results, the amount of China's online shoppers will reach 900 million in 2020. Many residents will shop on the internet instead of outdoor shopping.
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    A Data Preprocessing Method in Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation
    XU Lin-ming, LI Mei-juan
    2020, 28 (1):  162-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.014
    Abstract ( 405 )   PDF (936KB) ( 277 )   Save
    Data preprocessing is the basis of comprehensive evaluation and it usually includes uniformization of indicator types and nondimensionalization. Since the preprocessing result of indicator values can greatly influence the subsequent evaluation conclusion, whether its processes are appropriate or not has a direct impact on the reasonability of the final conclusion. Focusing on the problem that implicit incremental information will be eliminated when the three-dimensional data in dynamic comprehensive evaluation are processed by existing static data preprocessing methods, a data preprocessing method used in dynamic comprehensive evaluation is put forward to solve this problem.
    By introducing and analyzing the characteristics of six preprocessing methods of evaluation indexes, including range conversion method, linear proportional transformation, normalized processing, vector specification, standard sample transformation, efficacy coefficient method, a global improved normalization method (GIN) is proposed as a method for uniformization and nondimensionalization of indicators in dynamic comprehensive evaluation and preprocessing of indicator values.
    The idea of GIN method is as follows:it comprehensively considers and uniformly preprocess each index value in every moment, so as to retain the incremental information implied in the original data. The subtraction consistency method is employed for index type consistency processing. After processing, the larger the index value means the better. The difference between the original index values is retained after the dimensionless processing, and the pre-processed index values are comparable. Finally, through comparison and analysis of calculating examples, it illustrates the features of various methods and verifies that the global improved normalization method is an effective data preprocessing method in dynamic comprehensive evaluation.
    The GIN method can retain the incremental information of the original data, and can be used to process the three-dimensional data in the dynamic comprehensive evaluation, which is a useful supplement to the comprehensive evaluation method and its application research.
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    Study on the Effectiveness of Inferior Enterprise’s Extended Warranty Service Strategy under the Influence of Emotional Utility
    WANG Yan, TAN De-qing
    2020, 28 (1):  170-179.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.015
    Abstract ( 425 )   PDF (1435KB) ( 153 )   Save
    Buying durable goods, people not only concern about the quality and price of the product itself, but also concern about the services provided by the enterprise during the process of using the product. Extended warranty services could reduce the cost of repairing failure products and the risk of loss, but consumer need to pay for it. Also extended warranty services are considered as a very attractive marketing strategy that enhances product competitiveness, market share and brand value. The emotional utility of dissatisfaction or complain may be generated after purchasing the service. Because the failure is random, maintenance costs will be saved and the joy emotional utility will produce if failure happens; otherwise consumer will regret purchasing extended warranty service. So the emotional utility of the consumer will affect the effectiveness of the enterprise's implementation of the service strategy. Considering the influence of consumer sentiment, the duopoly differential game model was built to study the influence of the extended service strategy of the durable enterprise on the equilibrium price of the product, and further discuss the validity of the extended service strategy. The conclusion is that the input of the service is different in different ranges, and the equilibrium price of the product varies with the increment of the service investment. The equilibrium price of the extended service of the high quality product is proportional to the service investment, and the change of service price with the increasing of service investment is also related to the failure rate and extension period for inferior enterprise. The trend of the equilibrium price of durable goods is affected by the warranty period and the extension period, while show different characteristics with the service investment, failure rate and consumer utility change. For the inferior enterprises, the service investment to meet greater than 1, to increase the service investment to reduce the price difference with the high-quality products is effective, and it can achieve the same price with high-quality products to sell products. But only under certain condition, it is effective to extend the warranty period and the extension of the strategy to narrow the price difference with the high quality products. Finally, the rationality of the conclusion is further verified by numerical analysis. Discussing the effectiveness of extended warranty service strategies, this paper broadens the perspective of research on extended service, and also can provide decision support for the effective implementation of after-sales service strategy for durable goods enterprises.
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    Multi-agent Simulation of Search and Rescue in DisasterBased on Auction Mechanism
    TANG Jian, GUO Hai-xiang, GONG Cheng-zhu, ZHU Ke-jun
    2020, 28 (1):  180-190.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.016
    Abstract ( 332 )   PDF (2420KB) ( 97 )   Save
    In this paper, an agent-based environment is established to simulate the search and rescue after disaster. Two types of active agents are included in this model, namely victims and rescue teams. The improved Truncated Lévy walks model was adopted to simulate rescuers' search behaviors, and an auction algorithm was used to imitate the rescuers' cooperation. The victim agents have a property, i.e., survival probability. Without timely rescue, the health condition of a victim could deteriorate continuously, thus the survival probability will decrease with time, and they may be dead as time passes. The rescue teams search victims in the disaster area, and the rescue teams who locate the buried site take on the role of auctioneers. Other rescue teams who are not at work presently within the scope of cooperation take on the role of bidders. The auctioneers will choose some bidders to cooperate with if necessary. In this paper, the disaster mitigation in adisaster-prone area where landslides occurred frequently is taken as the case to evaluate the performance of proposed scheme. The shapefiles of this area are imported in NetLogo, and the path information is considered in the scheme. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed search and rescue scheme, it is simulated in three scenarios, including "fatal", "serious" and "normal". The simulation results indicate that the cooperative rescue plan would improve victims' relative survival rate by 8.0%-14.5%, improve the ratio of rescued victims to all alive victims by 7.4%-16.7%, and decrease the average elapsed time for one site getting rescued by 25%-26.7%. Moreover, our auction-based approach is as good as the well-known algorithm F-Max-Sum in view of the simulation results, and its low-complexity has made it more appropriate for the cooperation among rescue teams in disaster relief than F-Max-Sum. The robustness analysis shows that search radius plays an important role in improving the rescue efficiency, thus investments in equipment could be adjusted to increase search radius, bringing about improvement in rescue efficiency. The scope of cooperation does not have a significant effect on rescue efficiency, but it is necessary to keep the scope of cooperation larger than a threshold, thus the rescue teams' request for cooperation can be satisfied and the rescue efficiency can be maintained at a high level. The sensitivity analysis shows that the two parameters, the time limit for completing rescue operations in one single site and the maximum turning angle for next step, have great influence on rescue efficiency, and there exist optimal value for both of them in consideration of rescue efficiency.
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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Cooperative Innovation Based on Reference Dependence
    YANG Jian, FANG Yi-xin, DU Shao-fu
    2020, 28 (1):  191-200.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0134
    Abstract ( 398 )   PDF (2710KB) ( 194 )   Save
    Cooperative innovation has the advantages of realizing resource complementarily, reducing the risk of innovation and improving the possibility of innovation success, but it is difficult to maintain the stability of cooperation among enterprises in practice. Because the behavior of innovators directly affects the stability of cooperative relationship, the research on the behavior of innovators has always been one of the focuses. However, most of the existing studies are based on the assumption that the innovators are completely rational. Obviously, there is a gap between this assumption and the reality. In view of this problem, based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality, the traditional expected utility theory is changed, introduces the reference dependence is introduced to analyze the utility of the innovation subject, and the cooperative innovation revenue matrix. Based on the matrix is constructed, the evolutionary game analysis of the cooperative game is carried out, and the numerical analysis is simulated by MATLAB.
    The research shows that the factors such as the perceived value of cooperative innovation and independent innovation, the cost of cooperative innovation, the distribution of income are the important factors affecting the stability of cooperation. It is beneficial to enhance the stability of cooperation and innovation by enhancing the perception of long-term strategic cooperation and innovation and guiding enterprises to establish correct innovation risk awareness and controlling the transaction cost of cooperative innovation.
    The interaction of cooperative innovation subjects in the context of bounded rationality is examined, and corresponding policy recommendations are given to enhance the stability of cooperative innovation on the analysis of game analysis, which is helpful to expand the research of bounded rationality in the field of cooperative innovation.
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    Local Government Heterogeneity and Regional Environmental Cooperation——Evolutionary Game Analysis Based on Chinese Decentralization
    SONG Yan, CHEN Sai, ZHANG Ming
    2020, 28 (1):  201-211.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.017
    Abstract ( 421 )   PDF (1564KB) ( 259 )   Save
    The implicit individual homogeneity hypothesis of traditional economics has been unable to explain the contradictory behavior of different local governments in the process of regional environmental cooperation, and the study of regional environmental cooperation governance is in trouble. The evolutionary game model of local government's bounded rationality is established from the two heterogeneity dimensions of income and preference by analyzing the transmission mechanism of local government heterogeneity under the background of Chinese decentralization system. The evolution process and its convergence trend of local government's choice of environmental cooperation strategy are discussed. The results show that the cooperation governance of regional environmental depends on the difference between local governments' income and preferences, as well as the compensation for cooperators' losses or the supervision and punishment of non-cooperators. It is helpful to improve probability of cooperation among local governments by increasing the income and supervision of the non-cooperators. Moderate preference heterogeneity is conducive to the promotion of regional environmental cooperation. The income heterogeneity between regions is not conducive to the promotion of regional environmental cooperation. However, when the income of the two local governments is equal, one party can quickly imitate the reproduction of the other party of the environmental strategy, so that adjacent local government strategy convergence. Therefore, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening environmental supervision and restraint mechanism, designing reasonably the current government incentive mechanism, and improving the environment transfer payment system between the regions, between the central and local governments, so as to promote effective implementation of China's regional environmental cooperation governance, and promote positive conversion of economic performance to environmental performance.
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    Analysis of Online Public Opinion Evolution under the Influence of Complex Interaction Behaviors
    LIN Yan-xia, XIE Xiang-sheng, ZHANG De-peng
    2020, 28 (1):  212-221.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.018
    Abstract ( 485 )   PDF (964KB) ( 490 )   Save
    Now it's much more common that people participate in online public opinion. But because of the imperfect network public opinion management system, the network public opinion events can make serious and negative effects easily. So the importance of studying network public opinion is increasingly significant. The study of the complex online public opinion based on evolutionary game theory can reflect the actual situation of the online public opinion formation and evolution. It helps to provide some scientific basis for guiding the users' behaviors and controlling the evolution of the online public opinion. This article introduces two factors into the replication dynamic model of online public opinion which can reflect the complex interaction behaviors between the internet users:the preferences of creating a new game connect and the lifetime of maintaining game connect. An evolutionary game model of network public opinion on this basis is built. According to evolutionary game equilibrium solution, how the complex interaction factors and the initial benefit influence the evolution of network public opinion is analyzed and explained. Besides, the corresponding suggestions about the network public opinion management for different situations are put forward. The study shows that when the interactive connections reach steady state, the gain matrix of the network public opinion will change. The elements in the original benefit matrix times its corresponding active connection proportion of the overall population under the different game connection type then the new benefit matrix is composed of the news elements. The complex interactions among the internet users are quantitatively explained. The study plays an important role in many aspects such as giving advices about online public opinion crisis management, reducing the potential hazards of online public opinion.
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    Technology Empowerment, User Scale and the Social Welfare of Sharing Economy
    LIU Zheng-chi, ZOU Zhi-li, MA Tao
    2020, 28 (1):  222-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.019
    Abstract ( 477 )   PDF (1798KB) ( 211 )   Save
    The sharing economy represented by Airbnb and Uber has become a hot topic in academia, but the current research focuses on the business model, ignoring the social welfare analysis that highlights its "Pratt & Whitney" nature. Drawing upon the conceptual idea "Being not in use is not different from being wasted," it is held that every transaction in sharing economy market is a manifestation of Pareto Improvement, and a theoretical analysis is conducted in terms of the factors affecting the quantity and measure of social welfare. Furthermore, upon this analytical foundation, the paradigmatic models concerning the market structure are summarized and extracted, which characterize the three consecutive developmental stages of the sharing economy. In the meantime, some mathematical modules are constructed to delineate the intrinsic relationships among technology empowerment, user scale and social welfare regarding different developmental stages of the sharing economy. The result shows that:at the initial stage, the market is in a state of local monopoly, at this time the loss of economic and social welfare is manifest, and the level of welfare depends mainly on the technical empowerment; at the developmental stage, with the market areas of the sharing economy platforms overlapping, user-scale expansion competition will enhance social welfare; at the mature stage, featuring the merger and acquisition among platforms and the formation of "competitive monopoly" market structure, the social welfare may be boosted again. Further model analysis reveals its internal mechanism:technology has the dual effect of "substitution" and "excavation" on social welfare, while user scale exerts positive and negative external effects on social welfare. A useful guidance is offered to the platform strategy and government regulation of sharing economy.
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