Table of Content

20 August 2018, Volume 26 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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IPO Book-building Reform,Probability of Informed Traders and IPO Premiums MA Chao-qun, XU Guang-lu, LIU Wei, JIA Yu, ZHAO Xin-wei 2018, 26 (8):  1-12.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.001 Abstract ( 716 )   PDF (1344KB) ( 654 )   Save O'Hara Rational Expectation Model assumes that non-informed traders definitely learn information from the transaction price, thus the probability of informed traders has a negative effect on asset returns. In this paper, this hypothesis is relaxed and the possibility of non-informed traders' learning behavior is introduced. Using an expanded rational expectation model, it is found that the learning behavior of non-informed traders on the market transaction price affects the relationship between the probability of informed traders and the expected returns.When there is a learning behavior in the market for uninformed traders, the probability of informed traders has a negative impact on expected returns with the deepening of the learning degree of uninformed traders. In empirical analysis, the sample covers 278 IPO firms listed in SME board during 2010 to 2011. Empirical results support theoretical model conclusions. The conflicting research conclusion that the probability of informed traders has positive or negative effects on asset returns is explained, and the effectiveness of the reform of the inquiry system is tested. This study has a certain inspiration to the applicability of the probability of informed traders in asset pricing. At the same time, a kind of empirical test method for non-informed traders' learning behavior is put forward. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimating Implied Levy Models based on non-uniform Discrete Fourier Transforms HU Xiao-ping, CAO Jie 2018, 26 (8):  13-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.002 Abstract ( 642 )   PDF (721KB) ( 317 )   Save The price of the option traded on the market contains the prospective information of market participants on future movements of the underlying asset price. The underlying asset price movement model based on the option price is called an implied model, which is obviously superior to the model based on the history data of asset price while applied to pricing derivatives and risk management. The Levy model has been widely used to describe the price movement of financial assets in recent years, and the general Levy model does not have an analytic form of the probability density function, but there is always an analytic form of the characteristic functions. Based on the Fourier transform method of option pricing under the Levy model, the problem estimating the parameters of the implicit Levy model is studied based on the non-uniform discrete Fourier transform (NDFT). First of all, the European options pricing is introduced based on the Fourier transform, and the relationship between the European call option price and the characteristic function is also given. Then, the basic properties of Levy process and its characteristic function are described. Then, the non-uniform Fourier transform is given. Then, the model fitting and parameter estimation of the Fourier domain are given. Finally, the application of this method to the estimation of the implied Levy model is demonstrated, and the effectiveness of the method is verified from two aspects of model parameter estimation and model identification. The results show that this method can solve the problem that the most of Levy process does not have the analytic form of density function, which cannot estimate the implied Levy model parameter problem, and can also deal with the problem of uneven distribution of option execution price in the market and less data quantity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Rolling Window Selection for Time-Varying Parameter Model and Its Application FU Qiang, ZHANG Xing-min 2018, 26 (8):  20-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.003 Abstract ( 890 )   PDF (1302KB) ( 359 )   Save There are serious structural changes in the macroeconomic field. The performance of the model estimators is sensitive to the choice of estimation sample size, while methods to select the window size in rolling time-varying parameter model have received little attention.In this paper, a new approach is developed to select the rolling bandwidth for capturing the time-varying parameter in models with potential breaks. More specifically, the function forms are unknown, which can be set as a single-index semi-parametric model that can capture the linear or nonlinear relationship between variables, also can be extended to the linear or generalized linear regression model where only need to use the corresponding model estimation method. Our new approach, to balance the accuracy and the time-varying objectives of the model estimators, solves the multi-objective optimization problem that minimizing bootstrap approximation quadratic loss function of model estimators and maximizing the Manhattan distance between the sub-sample estimators. Monte Carlo simulations show that using the window size selected by our procedure can significantly improve upon the performance of the model estimators. And also our method is applicable to all kinds of structural changes and time-varying parameter models of linear and nonlinear relations, not sensitive to the parameters choice in the same data generation process.When applied to capture the structural changes of China's financial network, 30 financial institutions, from 16 October, 2010 to 26 September, 2015, are included. Our results suggest that our procedure can capture the structural changes of the financial system, also significantly improve upon the performance of the financial network model estimators compared to traditional methods which just according to the subjective intention and forecasting performance. Our research and conclusions are helpful for the optimization and application of time-varying parameter model, and have important theoretical value and practical significance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Corporate Social Responsibilityas the Signal of Firm Future Performance: Evidence from Chinese Market WANG Jian-ling, LI Yue-ting, WU Xuan 2018, 26 (8):  31-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.004 Abstract ( 842 )   PDF (1016KB) ( 416 )   Save The question of whether undertaking corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities can improve firm performance has attracted increasing research attention. Most of prior research has documented a positive relation between CSR activities and firm performance. However, other literatures suggest that the relation between CSR activities and firm performance is negative, not related or different in different subsample being analyzed. Mixed results are found in prior works. In this paper, this relation is re-examined by separating CSR score influenced by current period firm performance and clean CSR score using predicted and residual values from an OLS regression. CSR scores are obtained from Hexun.com Chinese listed firms' CSR evaluation results and accounting and stock market data are obtained from CSMAR database.After controlling the influence of firms' current period economic fundamentals to CSR performance, the regression analysis is applied on Chinese A-share market data from 2010 to 2014. It is found that (1) undertaking CSR activities cannot increase firm's future financial performance but can generate positive stock market return, and that (2) investing in CSR activities can increase future financial performance only for firms with good current period financial performance, while for firms with bad current period financial performance, investing in CSR activities will deteriorate future performance. Our results remain generally robust after various robustness tests are performed.Our results suggest that it is much costly for firms with bad performanceto undertake CSR activities than firms with good performance. Firms with good performance can use CSR as a signal to separate them from firms with bad performance, even if the signal (CSR) itself contributes no ways for improving firm performance.The positive relation between current period CSR activities and future financial performance documented by prior literatures may be subject to the problem of spurious regression.The empirical results of this paper impose challenges on current theoretical frameworks on issues concerning whether CSR activities improve firm performance and add to the literature on the economic consequences of CSR. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Government Fund Policy in Promoting WEEE Recycling ZHAO Xiao-min, YOU Jia-jing, Li Yuan-qin, HUANG Ying 2018, 26 (8):  42-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.005 Abstract ( 802 )   PDF (2950KB) ( 311 )   Save According to the White Paper issued by China Household Electric Appliance Research Institute, China is entering a peak time of discarded electric and electronic products. In 2016, theoretical quantities of 14 major WEEE in China reach 378 million sets, and the total amount of treated e-waste is 75 million sets.The growing e-waste not only causes environmental pollution, but also leads to the waste of available resources. In order to regulate the recycling industry, China-WEEE has been published since 2009 and implemented since 2011.In 2012, the Ministry of Finance announced the fund system's implementation by promulgating the WEEE Processing Fund Collection and Subsidy Management. In accordance with 2012 fund policy, the government collects the funds from producers, and then subsidizes the corresponding recycling enterprises.However, the 2012 fund policy encountered a dilemma. The White Paper shows in 2016, the funds collected from producers were 2.61 billion yuan, but the subsidies to recycling enterprises were 4.714 billion yuan. The funding gap reached 2.104 billion yuan. Moreover, this policy incentivizes the recycling enterprises, but producers are lack of motivation to fulfill the environmental responsibility. How to motivate producers for their environmental efforts (for example eco-design)? How to solve the funding gap? To explore the innovation mechanisms in WEEE, Fund Balance Policy and Fund Relief Policy are mainly studied. Cost functions associated with producer's efforts on eco-design, green production, etc. are construeted, and the profit models are built for producer and recycling enterprise. Based on the optimal decisions under different policies, the consumer surplus, environmental benefits, social welfare and government expenditure are especially evaluated. The result shows the Fund Balance Policy can solve the funding gap,but this policy increases the fund collection standard. With the growing of WEEE treated, the collection standard rises significantly, which undoubtedly has a great negative impact on the producers. Compared with the 2012 fund policy, the Balance Policy still does not stimulate the producers' environmental efforts, but it leads to decreasing of producers'profits, consumer surplus and social welfare. Fund Relief Policy is another policy studied in this paper. Under this policy, the government collects the fund from producers, and then refunds some fee to producers according to the actual quantities of WEEE processed by recycling enterprises. The result shows the Fund Relief Policy can play a positive role in stimulating producers to make more efforts to fulfill their environmental responsibilities. On the whole, this policy outperforms the 2012 fund policy, particularly in promoting WEEE recycling, increasing recycling enterprises' profitability, improving environmental performance and decreasing government expenditure. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Closed-loop Supply Chain Network Equilibrium with Design Level for Remanufactureability ZHANG Gui-tao, QU Xiao-yu, DAI Geng-xin, HU Jin-song, WANG Yong-bo, SUN Hao 2018, 26 (8):  54-66.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.006 Abstract ( 793 )   PDF (1986KB) ( 565 )   Save The remanufactureabale design has been used in some companies, which can benefit the remanufacturing process. However, extra investment is also needed in the product design. Therefore, the enterprise especially manufacturers want to decide the remanufactureabale design level in production. In this paper, a kind of remanufactureabale design level implementation scheme of manufacturers is investigated under the multi-period decision making environment. In order to describe the change of the supply chain network, the decision making time is discreted to several periods. And the adjacent periods are connected with by recycling products cross-period use, and inventory transfer of new products and remanufacturing products. At present, the relevant literature manly focuses on the supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer, and not fully expresses the competition among the same type players. In this paper, a closed-loop supply chain(CLSC) network comprises multiple competitive manufacturers, multiple competitive retailers and multiple demand markets. The government regulates the lowest remanufactureabale design level, based on this regulation, the manufacturers make decisions for the remanufactureabale design level of new product, the production and transaction amount. In the forward channel, the manufacturers and retailers sell new products and remanufactured products, and in the reverse channel, the retailers, commissioned by manufacturers, collect used products from demand markets at the end of every period. To simplify the question, it is supposed that the used products can only be recycled and remanufactured once; the consumers in the demand markets evaluate the new product and remanufacturing product differently, thus the prices paid to the two kinds of product are different. Using the variational inequality and other theories, the equilibrium condition of the manufacturers and retailers are obtained, and then the integrated supply chain network equilibrium model is formulated. The modified projection and contraction method is employed to solve model. The numerical examples are provided to analyze the impacts of remanufacturing invest factor of remanufactureabale design level, the factor of consumers evaluation for the remanufactured products, the lowest regulation remanufactureable design level on the supply chain network equilibrium results. The results show that enterprises should increase the invest in the remanufactureabale design activity, when the evaluation of consumers for the remanufacturing products increases, the profit of manufacturers decreases at beginning and then increases. And these managerial insights can provide some references in the decision process of remanufactureable design level of manufacturers and related sectors of government. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Closed-loop Marketing & Pricing Strategy with Remanufacturing LI Yan, LIN Xin-yi, DA Qing-li 2018, 26 (8):  67-74.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.007 Abstract ( 716 )   PDF (1705KB) ( 337 )   Save The difficulty to market remanufactured parts and lack of qualified used parts are two key issues for remanufacturing industry. Concerning that,the Internet +auto parts closed-loop marketing system that simultaneously promotes old parts collection and sales of remanufactured parts is proposed.Considering the marketing input's collection effort effect which works to promote the single period used parts collection and multi-period advertising effect which works to improve the long-term green awareness with brand loyalty, we set up a multi-period closed-loop marketing input and differential pricing model and give optimal decision. Based on the present situation of auto parts market in China, the different strategic examples such as no closed-loop marketing, primary closed-loop marketing and upgraded closed-loop marketing are analyzed. Researches show that:closed-loop marketing can significantly improve the total revenue, while the match of collection effort and multi-period advertising effect should be taken into account during the upgrading of marketing strategy. For products with a long life cycle, the closed-loop marketing strategy should be adjusted frequently. The conclusion of this study can help to further improve the theory of closed-loop supply chain and marketing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Advertising and Price Decisions Considering Reference Price Effect ZHOU Er-feng, ZHANG Ting-long, NI Lei, FANG Dan, FANG Chang 2018, 26 (8):  75-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.008 Abstract ( 804 )   PDF (1640KB) ( 537 )   Save The social perception influences product and brand evaluations. Consumers are especially susceptible to reference price effects when they make purchase decisions for a certain product. Meanwhile, the advertising and pricing are the determinable factors that have impact on consumers' reference price which also are fundamental marketing strategies. Therefore, how to dynamically set advertising and pricing to maximize firms' profits are essential tasks. To explore these problems, a dynamic advertising and pricing model is built in a duopoly market where two firms compete through time using pricing and advertising as their dominated marketing tools. From the aspect of firms' advertising practice and consumers' strategy behavior respectively, two alternative strategies that firms can choose are proposed. They are advertising budget (commit to an advertising budget in reference period) and price commitment (guarantee future price will remain the same in reference period). These two strategies can not only affect the decisions of consumers, but also the competitor. Three different cases' which are both firms choose the price commitment, one firm chooses the advertising budget and the other chooses the price commitment, both firms choose the advertising budget, are first explored. Explicit solutions to optimization problems are also obtained. Second, the impact of these two strategies have on firms' advertising effort, pricing and profits is analyzed. The study finds that i) the steady reference price is always higher than the steady retail price; ii) under the case in which both firms choose the advertising budget, the price changing rate is higher than that of under the case in which one firm chooses the price commitment and the other chooses the advertising budget; iii) the price strategy is also affected by the initial reference price. At last, the simulation analysis is used to illustrate in what condition and which one of the two strategies mentioned above are firms' best choice. The research results can guide firms to make dynamic advertising efforts strategy and pricing strategy in a duopoly market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Continuity Material Order Sorting Based on the Polling Control Mechanism of Exhaustive Parallel Limited-1 RAN Wen-xue, LIU Hui-juan, YU Li-yan 2018, 26 (8):  86-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.009 Abstract ( 1222 )   PDF (2169KB) ( 254 )   Save China is a large country of grain production and population so that the food problem has a significant impact on China's economic and social development. However, in the background of supply-side reform, the existing grain supply chain "wholesale layer-by-layer" circulation system can not meet consumers individual requirements. So, in this paper, based on the needs of individual customers, the application polling system theory is used to studying the mechanism of automatic control of order picking in flour, rice and other food materials. Based on the sorting characteristics of the continuity material and the actual business needs, common order is distinguished from priority order. Besides, establishing two level priority polling order sorting system model of exhaustive parallel limited-1. The proposed model takes exhaustive control strategy to sort the priority order and takes limited-1 control strategy to sort the common order, which can ensure priority order customers receive better service and the fairness of order sorting systems. Using the embedded Markov chain, multidimensional probability generating function and Laplace transform to solve theoretical model. Then through numerical calculation and analysis to get system's first order characteristics and second order characteristics and other key performance parameters for intensive study of the control mechanism of order sorting. The continuous material automated order picking polling control mechanism is studied and the priority order and general order which ensures priority orders get better customer service, and fair ordering system are distinguished. Finally, a numerical example verifies the polling order picking system stability and high efficiency. The results of this study expand the depth of the application polling theory and the breadth of the order sorting theory research, which is of great significance for the realization of the supply side of the grain industry structural reforms. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Contract Coordination and Optimization of Revenue-sharing and Cost-sharing Incomplementary Closed-loop Supply Chain XIE Jia-ping, LIANG Ling, YANG Guang, KONG Fan-yu, CHEN Yu-ping 2018, 26 (8):  94-105.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.010 Abstract ( 703 )   PDF (2133KB) ( 424 )   Save In the era of IoT, the E-commerce mode not only saves the channel cost of manufacturers, but allows them acquire demand data from information sharing platform. In this way manufacturers adjust prices efficiently and affect the customers' purchasing strategies. However, to encourage customers change their traditional offline purchasing preferences, the online prices given by the manufacturers are usually lower than that of offline retailers which leads to an online-offline channel conflict. IKEA and Apple are the first companies trying to discover another types of E-commerce mode in which customers order online and pick up offline. Such a channel complementary business mode integrates online and offline channel and brings manufacturers more precise market demand prediction. Meanwhile, the offline dispatching service allows customers pick up the products more conveniently which promotes the satisfaction of customers. A two-echelon closed-loop dual channel supply chain consisting of single online direct selling platform provider and single offline channel service provider is studied in the present paper. The platform provider in the forward channel takes charge of product manufacturing, remanufacturing, online direct selling, order receiving and passing the orders to offline channel service provider who takes charge of product distribution, instruction, maintenance, experience and return. The offline service provider in the reverse channel takes charge of recycling used product. They retrieve used product from customers in a certain price and are compensated by online platform provider. In the forward channel, online platform provider and offline channel service provider share their revenue of selling in the forward channel. In this scenario the optimal direct selling price, transfer payment, recycling price, the safety stock level of offline service provider and the service devotion in both online and offline channel are discussed. In the following extensive model, platform provider affords part of offline channel service cost at the same time. The optimal price and service devotion between revenue-sharing model and revenue-sharing-cost-sharing model are further compared. By comparing revenue-sharing model and revenue-sharing-cost-sharing model, it is found that the optimal online direct selling price and offline forward channel service level are affected by revenue sharing ratio and cost sharing ratio while the optimal recycling price and optimal reverse channel service level are only affected by cost sharing ratio. Therefore, in the direct selling complementary closed-loop supply chain system, compared to the business mode that platform provider only shares online selling revenue to channel service provider, revenue-sharing-cost-sharing mechanism balances the service levels in both forward channel and reverse channel and affects the optimal offline recycling pricing strategy. Furthermore, by numerical study it is found that if online platform provider shares part of offline channel service construction devotion, the reverse recycling and reverse channel service level of service provider will increase. From analysis it is revealed that the Internet platform's property of openness, cooperation and sharing promotes the application of dual ratio mechanism design in closed-loop supply chain. In conclusion, present paper aims to solve the problem that platform provider's online selling mode is not perfect and the hardness of recycling without physical stores. A complementary contract coordination mechanism is designed in which online platform takes charge of direct selling and offline service provider takes charge of dispatching. By comparison of two mechanism, it is found that revenue-sharing-cost-sharing mode is better than the mode without cost-sharing. However, in the practice, the success of such business mode relies on the cooperation among the members in the supply chain. In general, in the beginning, online platform provider and offline channel service provider only share their revenue in the forward channel. With the cooperation time and the trustiness among them increases, they form a strategic alliance in which online platform provider shares part of offline channel service provider's cost devotion to increase the service level of offline service provider. The compensation of online platform provider to offline service provider benefits both of them and allows them to develop the direct selling closed-loop supply chain together. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Equilibriums and Coordination Strategies Considering Product Price, Quality and Service Competition in A Two-level Supply Chain HUANG Fu, SONG Hua-ming, YANG Hui, MA Dong-sheng, WU Jia-wei 2018, 26 (8):  106-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.011 Abstract ( 766 )   PDF (2513KB) ( 437 )   Save The coordinated operation strategy of supply chain members under the influence of product price, quality and service competition on the products purchased by one retailer through two manufacturers is explored in this paper. By formulating a two-level supply chain system which consists of manufacturer, retailer and customer, applying the backward method and the optimization theory, the competitive equilibrium of supply chain members under centralized decision, manufacturer no cooperation, manufacturer cooperation and semi cooperation (retailer cooperation only with one of the manufacturers) is solved. The equilibrium solution of quality and service between the two competing products when in the case of those four different cooperative relations and their consumer surplus are analyzed. Moreover, numerical simulation is used to discuss the influence of various parameters. It is indicated that the manufacturer's no cooperative situation can't improve the service level of the product, but can improve the quality effort of the manufacturers; Centralized coordination of retailers helps to improve the product quality and service level. Avoiding to avoid the cooperation between manufacturers provides high quality products and service level to benefit customers, and increases the total number of customers in the market,at the same time can improve the whole profits of the supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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To Implant Consumption Experience for E-commerce of Fresh Agricultural Products based on Consumer Sovereignty SHAO Teng-wei, LV Xiu-mei 2018, 26 (8):  118-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.012 Abstract ( 833 )   PDF (1287KB) ( 373 )   Save China's agricultural product quality is not bad, but the reliability of consumers is not high. The reason is that consumers are influenced by a series of vicious quality incidents in the past, and thus have cast doubt on the quality of domestic agricultural products. To improve consumer confidence,it is of great importance to deepen the structure reform from the agriculture supply side,adjust the product structure and enhance product quality.Furthermore,it is also necessary to implant full of consumption experience on the supply side of agricultural product to let consumers know the story behind the product, breeding base, harvest experience, logistics experience, quality trace-ability and supply chain visualization,in order to let consumer understand the actual situation of the quality and safety of agricultural products,to eliminate consumers' "insecurity" and "crisis of confidence" on agricultural products. Therefore, a C2B2B2C model is constructed, which is implanted consumption experience based on consumer sovereignty that fragmented consumers polymerize into a food community with social groups based on their geographical proximity through internet, fragmented producers polymerize into a large-scale production base through cooperatives and other organizations, food community and production base dock the production and sale through e-commerce platforms,e-commerce platforms set up adequate consumption experience for consumers on product quality and safety. According to the whole industry chain of the production, supply and marketing of fresh agricultural products, the six major consumer experience scenes that consumers may be interested in are analyzed, which includes agricultural production, quality trace-ability, logistics distribution, online shopping operations, product presentation and after-sales service. It can be seen from theoretical study that the demand of online shopping will grow sustained since consumption experience can bring about some information from production and sale of fresh goods symmetric and thus can reduce transaction cost while producers and consumers merge into prosumer.On the other hand,consumers will play Stackelberg games with producers and buy less products if the consumer experience is deficient. It is revealed from empirical study that these six scenes are important scenes that affect the consumption experience significantly and e-commerce platforms should do good on these scenes. Dynamic game model is analyzed in the theoretical study and Probit model is used in empirical study in this article.The data comes from 304 consumers of five cities who give out the consumption experience on online survey when they buy fresh agricultural products such as vegetables,fruit, meat,milk on e-commerce platform. A solution for the domestic consumer confidence on the quality of agricultural products for fresh agricultural products is provided in this article, reference value is provided in research results for the domestic development of trust to regain consumer confidence in the safety of fresh agricultural product quality and fresh agricultural products in China production and consumption of interaction between the two sides. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Features, Issues and Methods of Enterprise Organizational Management under Internet of Things HU Bin, LIU Zuo-yi 2018, 26 (8):  127-137.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.013 Abstract ( 942 )   PDF (1632KB) ( 540 )   Save With the coming of the era of interconnect of all things and the era of intelligence, including Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence and Smart City, the traditional management theory produced in the context of the mass production and internet in the last century is facing new challenges. For this reason, the new problems and methods of enterprise organizational management under IoT are proposed by taking the logistics industry as the application domain. The basic features of IoT system and environment are analyzed. The features and performances of enterprise organization under IoT are then induced from the perspectives of structure, work flow, behavior and macro environment. On the basis of these works, the academic issues of enterprise organizational management under IoT are extracted in four areas, i.e., organizational structure, work flow, organizational behavior, and operational management. The prospective methodology is given accordingly. The technical routes are provided and the development direction for academic research on enterprise organizational management under IoT or smart environment is pointed out. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Scale and Influence Factors of Enterprise Production under Demand Uncertainty TAN Ying-shuang, ZHANG Xue-qing, HENG Ai-min 2018, 26 (8):  138-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.014 Abstract ( 698 )   PDF (1282KB) ( 319 )   Save Based on the different circumstances of the company's production scale, the issue of the enterprise's production scale decision-making under the uncertainty of the demand was discussed. A decision-making model for the production scale of the company was constructed and expressions under different conditions were obtained. The analysis shows that if the demand is uncertain, the company has the optimal production scale. With the increase of the cost, the critical value of the optimal production scale of the company will increase. The interest rate and market force are negatively related to the optimal production scale of the enterprise. When the scale of enterprise production is, the optimal production scale of an enterprise is positively related to the volatility and expected growth rate of the unit-time income stream, while has nothing to do with the unit cost. Within the range, the optimal production scale is negatively related to the volatility of the enterprise's unit time income flow. As the company's unit time revenue flow expects an increase in the growth rate, it first decreases and then increases, and as the company's unit cost (C) increases, it first remains unchanged and then increases. This provides one kind of explanation for the decision-making of enterprises' production scale under the uncertainty of demand. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Emission Trading Auction Mechanism Design Based on Bilateral Abatement Cost Information Asymmetry YANG Jing-yu, LI Dong-dong 2018, 26 (8):  146-153.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.015 Abstract ( 682 )   PDF (1169KB) ( 303 )   Save Using auction to distribute pollution permits can not only internalize exterior problem of environmental pollution, but also adjust the contorted market price. A bilateral cost information asymmetry auction model is built to study the optimal auction mechanism, and the influence of related parameters on the optimal auction mechanism is further discussed. The results show that, the optimal auction mechanism is mixed auction mechanism. When the risk appetite exceeds a certain threshold, the hidden demand effectdominates, as the risk appetite increases, revenue and price volatility increase; when the risk appetite is smaller than a certain threshold, the competition effect dominates, as the risk appetite decreases, revenue and price volatility decrease. When the number of participants is small, hidden demand effect dominates, as the price impact coefficient increases, revenue increase under mixed auction; when the number of participants is large, competition effect dominates, as the price impact coefficient increases, revenue under mixed auctionpresent the inverted U type. As the price impact coefficient increases, the price volatility under mixed auction presents the inverted U type. Theoretical guidance is proviede for emissionpermits auction mechanism design. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Effects of Carbon Trading Policies on Profit and Carbon Emission of Electric-coal Supply Chain Based on Simulation Analysis LIAO Nuo, ZHAO Ya-li, HE Yong, ZHOU Ya 2018, 26 (8):  154-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.016 Abstract ( 775 )   PDF (2542KB) ( 576 )   Save Two-layer electric-coal supply chain (ECSC) consisting of one supplier and one manufacturer is studied. The carbon emission processes of the ECSC comprising of coal production, transportation and consumption are established using system dynamics model, and impacts of different carbon trading policies on profit and carbon emission of ECSC are analyzed. The ECSC of X Coal Industry and Y power plant in Shenhua Group is taken as case study, and the results show that:first, the average share of carbon emissions in production, transportation and consumption of ECSC is 12.1%, 39.6% and 48.3%, respectively; second, the higher the price of carbon trading, the larger negative impact on profit of ECSC, and the carbon reduction effect increased first and then decreased; third, with the decline in the proportion of free quotas, the profit of the ECSC is significantly reduced, while the emission reduction effect is slightly improved; finally, carbon trading subsidies could mitigate the decline in profit of ECSC, and could effectively enhance the emission reduction effect. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Study on Effects of Privacy Setting and Feedback on Mobile Commerce Users' Behavior Intentions LIU Bai-ling, YANG Shi-long, LI Yan-hui 2018, 26 (8):  164-178.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.017 Abstract ( 935 )   PDF (2639KB) ( 341 )   Save With the development of internet industry, mobile service providers can easily obtain users' personal information, but privacy protections are relatively weak, leading to the lack of users' perceived privacy control, and further reducing their intention of information disclosure and mobile commerce usage.Thus, it is necessary to explore new privacy protection methods, and evaluate their effectiveness through empirical research. In this paper, based on the justice theory and the theory of planned behavior, privacy preference setting and privacy feedback in the mobile commerce environment are proposed. To explore their affection to mobile users' intention to disclose personal information and use mobile commerce (referred to as behavior intention), the structure equation model was developed, in which we not only concentrated on our privacy protection methods'direct and indirect effects on mobile users' behavior intention, but also explored their interaction effects to mobile users'perceived control and behavior intention. 172 valid data are collected by conducting 2*2 full factorial experiments, and the data are analyzed using SPSS 21.0 and Smartpls 3.2.4. The results show that our proposed privacy protection approaches have direct positive impacts on both users' perceived privacy control (referred to as perceived control) and behavioral intentions, and also indirectly influence users' behavior intentions through perceived control. Furthermore,privacy preferencesetting and privacy feedback have a significant negative interaction effect on users' behavior intentions, and privacy feedback has a substitution effecton privacy preference setting.Our research not only has some implications for future research in this field, but also provides some suggestions and guidance for mobile commerce service providers and developers to design effective privacy protection methods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Prospect Decision-making Method Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Information XU Hai-jun, TIAN Xiao-li, XU Ze-shui 2018, 26 (8):  179-185.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.018 Abstract ( 1020 )   PDF (854KB) ( 413 )   Save The hesitant fuzzy linguistic information is a very general way to express the evaluation information of the decision makers. Also, the prospect theory is a popular framework to portray the different risk attitudes of the decision makers for gains and losses in real decision-making. Considering both the uncertain decision-making situations and the expressions of evaluation information, a prospect decision-making method is developed based on hesitant fuzzy linguistic information. Furthermore, the detailed steps and the visual procedure of the proposed method are given. Finally, the feasibility and the effectiveness of this method are verified by the comparative analysis in case study. The data of the case is derived from the questionnaire of the experts. The comparative result shows that decision-making with prospect framework is superior to the utility framework because of the risk attitude in former one. The construction of the prospect decision-making method with hesitant fuzzy information will promote more researches to focus on the behavior decision-making with fuzzy information. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the Health Evaluation of The Megaproject Team's Immune System Based on The Coordinated Development Degree XUE Xiao-long, NIU Xiang-fei 2018, 26 (8):  186-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.08.020 Abstract ( 705 )   PDF (1782KB) ( 374 )   Save The healthy and sustainable operation of the megaproject team's immune system is important for the megaproject team to cope with the complex engineering environment. It can be divided into the innate immunity and adaptive immunity. The coordinated development of the two sub-systems is closely related to the healthy and sustainable operation of the megaproject team's immune system. In order to evaluate the health and coordinated development of the megaproject team's immune system, an evaluation model based on the coordinated development degree is proposed. Firstly, the health evaluation index system which can reflect the characteristics of the megaproject team's immune system is constructed through the literature inquiry and depth interview. Secondly, the improved DEMATEL is used to determine the weight of the index and use the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantify the relevant index, And then the health index and coordination degree of the immune system are obtained. Thirdly, the criteria of the health degree and coordinated development is established. In addition, the strategy of dynamic tracking evaluation of the immune system health is put forward in the life cycle of the megaproject team. Finally, the model is used to the immune system of a multinational gas pipeline project team. The results show that the coordinated development model can not only reflect the health of the megaproject team's immune system, but also measure the coordinated development of the innate immunity and adaptive immunity sub-system. At the same time, the tracking evaluation of the immune system health also achieved good results. This study has a certain inspiration for the megaproject team's immune system and highlights the future research direction. References | Related Articles | Metrics