Table of Content

20 July 2018, Volume 26 Issue 7 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Bandwidth Selection for Kernel Estimator of Spot Volatility in High Frequency data and Algorithm Design WANG Jiang-tao, ZHOU Yong 2018, 26 (7):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.001 Abstract ( 799 )   PDF (1468KB) ( 564 )   Save The non-parametric estimator of spot volatility is the current focus due to its high accuracy. However, this estimator has to choose the optimal bandwidth in its application. There is difficulty in calculating the optimal bandwidth since some awkward unknown parameters emerge. In this paper, taking kernel estimator as the representative of non-parametric estimator for spot volatility, a data-driven algorithm of bandwidth selection has been constructed by adopting some idea of non-parametric regression. The stability of algorithm for selecting bandwidth is proved in the theory. It is shown that the algorithm is adaptive and convergent with a fast rate from the numerical examples and the convergence is independent on the original value. The proposed algorithm is conductive to the subsequent analysis of spot volatility. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study of Price Impact of Shares Lockup Expiration Considering Background Risk TAN Hao, WU Wei-xing 2018, 26 (7):  9-17.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.002 Abstract ( 904 )   PDF (1297KB) ( 485 )   Save The stock lockup is a common provision in initial public offerings and private placements in China. When the lockup period expires, the restricted shares gain the rights for circulation. The shares lockup expiration is often considered as public information because the date is often disclosed in advance. Under the hypothesis of a weak form efficient market, the stock price will not be affected by the lockup expiration event. However, many price declines have been witnessed after the lockup expiration, leading to the study of shares lockup expiration market anomaly. According to the literature review, stock demand, liquidity and asymmetric information are usually discussed under the topic,but common agreement on the causes of the anomaly is far from reached. The background risk is a risk that an agent has to bear and cannot be avoided. The holding of non-tradable assets, also called background assets, may result to background risks, which will influence investors' risk taking behaviors and portfolio choices. The lockup and unlocking processes essentially change the tradability of stocks. So it's well-suited to use background risk theory to analyze the price impact of shares lockup expiration. In this paper, the background assets are brought into the classic asset selection theory and how to identify the background risks is discussed. After that, an event study is applied to analyze the price impact of lockup expiration of non-tradable shares of 1502 Chinese companies in 2016 considering the investors' background risk. The empirical results show that the background risk has significant negative influences on the stock price during the lockup expiration; Companies with larger share lockup expiration ratio experience larger price drops. It is also found that positive roles of the company size factor and abnormal turnover in relieving the price drop during the shares lockup expiration. Compared to private placement shares lockup expiration, the IPO shares lockup expiration leads to larger price drops. The above findings provide a new perspective to understand the lockup expiration market anomaly and may help investors to avoid relevant price risks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study of Stock Price Co-jumps with Hawkes Factor Model LIU Zhi-dong, ZHENG Xue-fei 2018, 26 (7):  18-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.003 Abstract ( 892 )   PDF (914KB) ( 602 )   Save The analysis of co-jump facilitates the further research on systemic risk and transmission of market risk. Based on the three main theoretical methods to test for co-jumps, it is found that LM identifies 709 co-jumps, accounting for 2.03% percent of the data while BLT and FHLL methods identify 130 and 79 co-jumps, using high frequency data on 50 selected stocks from CSI 300 Index from January 21st 2013 to January 21st 2016. All the three methods suggest around 15% of the co-jump happens within half an hour after stock market opens even though intradaily seasonality is controlled. LM method shows that only when market crashed more than 20 individual stocks co-jump and the other 2 methods also capture the market crash feature. The three methods identify 5 common time, which are in market turbulent periods. Moreover, the moment when the circuit breaker is first triggered in 2016 is also identified as co-jump by all the three methods, which we refer as "circuit breaker co-jump". In general, all the three methods are effective to identify co-jump. LM method identifies more market movement using individual stock jump while BLT and FULL methods are more conservative to identify co-jumps. On the other hand, BLT and LM methods share most identification due to utilization of return data only while the identification of FULL is different by using more data. Despite the difference, the common identifications are usually referred as market turbulence, indicating the sensitivity of co-jump identification to market turbulence. Due to the aggregation of jump and co-jump, the Hawkes process is introduced into the analysis of jump and co-jumps, constructing factor models based on Hawkes process. It is also shown that Hawkes process can better describe the aggregation of jumps than Poisson process by calculating the MJ and CJ statistics, representing the aggregation of jumps and co-jumps of individual stock respectively. Under the Hawkes assumption, the MJ statistics coincide with the empirical results however the CJ statistics indicates that independent Hawkes process cannot describe the aggregation of co-jumps. Due to the estimation difficulty of multi-dimensional Hawkes process, a factor model based on Hawkes process is proposed to describe individual stock jump with different probability when the market factor jumps under the circumstances when special idiosyncratic Jump happens. The jump of three individual stocks is treated as market factor event and delete the data when probability of the market factor event is high. The estimation results show that the market factor parameter converges significantly and the MJ and CJ statistics based on the model fits data well, indicating the fact that factor models can better describe aggregation of jump and co-jumps. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Large Volatility Mutually Exciting Effect of Chinese and American Stock Markets Based on Hawkes Process WANG Dong-hua, ZHANG Yu-heng 2018, 26 (7):  32-39.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.004 Abstract ( 663 )   PDF (1680KB) ( 425 )   Save In this paper, large volatility mutually exciting effects between the Chinese stock market and the U.S. stock market are discussed under the circumstances that the two markets are linked much more closely than ever before. Over the past ten years, there are more obvious coordinative price movements between the Chinese and the U.S. stock market, especially in large volatility price movements. For example, in October 27, 2008, CSI300 index fell 7.12%. Stimulated by the fall of A shares, the United States stock market S&P 500 index also fell 3.17% after the opening of the stock market. Large volatility mutually exciting effect is that a large price fluctuation in a certain market can be transmitted to other markets through various channels, and then trigger the sharp fluctuation of asset prices in other markets. The theory foundation of large volatility mutually exciting effect is the positive feedback mechanism and the contagion of the financial crisis. There are generally three traditional research methods on the volatility spill-over effect:Multivariate GARCH Model, Copula and VAR. However, there are some defects in these methods. Hawkes process is a special path dependent point stochastic process, which is compatible for modeling large volatility mutually exciting effect, the Hawkes process is use to model the mutually exciting effect of CSI300 and S&P500 large fluctuations from 2006-2017. It is found that (1) The large volatility mutually exciting effect between Chinese stock market and U.S. stock market is asymmetric, and U.S.stock market large volatility exciting effect towards Chinese stock market is stronger;(2) The amplitude of large volatility has no significant influence on the mutually exciting effect;(3) The duration of mutually exciting effect between the stock markets in China and U.S. is different. And the duration of mutually exciting effect from Chinese stock market to U.S. stock market is longer. The result has some implications for financial market regulators and investors. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Minimum Revenue Guarantee Level for PPP Projects Based on Real Option WANG Xiu-qin, KAN Meng-ying, ZHANG Yi-hong 2018, 26 (7):  40-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.005 Abstract ( 733 )   PDF (1066KB) ( 516 )   Save PPP(Public-Private Partnership)is adopted throughout the world for delivering public infrastructures. However, the implement has not been without trouble because of the uncertainty of revenue. The insufficiency of revenue results in the failure of many PPP projects, which discourages the private investors. Government compensation becomes indispensable to stimulate private investment and ensures the success in PPP projects. One of the most common forms of government compensation is the minimum revenue guarantee. Minimum revenue guarantee means the low demand risk is undertaken by government. Many researchers have advocated toll revenue cap so as to balance the risk and benefit. However, the government undertakes the complete low demand risk while shares only part of the over revenue. This leads to inappropriate risk and benefit sharing and over-guarantee occurs a lot in PPP projects. To settle these problems, setting the reasonable minimum revenue guarantee level is extremely significant. In this paper, a model is established to estimate the minimum revenue guarantee level from the perspective of reasonable risk and benefit sharing. The value of the minimum revenue guarantee should equal to the value that toll revenue cap brings to the government. Binomial Lattice, one of the main methods of Real Option, is used to calculate the value. Because of the uncertainty, the demand varies from year to year. The value of the toll revenue cap option at n year could be estimated by the rise and fall probability of demand, the revenue sharing proportion and the cap. The value at n-1 year is the discounted value of weighted average at t=n year. Similarly, the value at the beginning can be estimated. The value of the minimum revenue guarantee option could be estimated in the same way. The minimum guarantee level should make the value of the two options the same. Then, a numerical example is provided to explain how to estimate minimum revenue guarantee level. The studying results show that the minimum revenue guarantee level should not be fixed during the operation period. To balance the risk and benefit of government, it is mainly affected by the value of toll revenue cap which is estimated by lots of factors. This model could not only contribute to setting guarantee level, but also favor the intention of risk and benefit sharing in PPP projects. It greatly makes for solving the over-guarantee trouble that has caused huge loss for government. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Improved DEA Model for R&D Project Selection under Risk Condition GU Xiao-yan, HE Feng 2018, 26 (7):  47-54.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.006 Abstract ( 735 )   PDF (1802KB) ( 429 )   Save For many enterprises, Research and Development(R&D) projects play a vital role in improving competitiveness, and the R&D project is the impetus of enterprise survival and development. The R&D project selection is a process of logical analysis and comprehensive judgment on an investment system with complex multi factors, and it is one of the most important and complex problems in the project management field.Meanwhile, R&D project selection is closely related to enterprise strategy development and future trends. Compared with general projects, high innovative R&D projects have greater uncertainty, which are not only reflected by the technical factors of projects themselves, but also by the factors of market changes and unexpected competitors. The high uncertainty of R&D projects brings high risks. It is also the case that R&D projects are affected by market, technology and emergency risks during the life cycle. Market risk is the uncertainty of potential R&D project cash flow, technology risk is the probable loss caused by technology uncertainty, and emergency risk is the impact of unexpected events on R&D project cash flow. The existed risks make R&D project selection more challenging. In general, R&D projects have large investment and long life cycles, which are useful for enterprise competitive advantage and future growth. It will affect enterprise development for several years whether to choose the R&D project suitable for enterprise strategy and whether to response to risks during R&D process. Therefore, it has great theoretical and practical significance to study R&D project selection under risk condition. In this paper, drawing on the risk characteristics associated with R&D projects and enterprise strategy, the R&D project selection model based on efficiency sorting is constructed and presented.To begin with, the effectiveness of R&D projects and the relative advantages compared to alternative projects are analyzed; Secondly, focus is put on the drawbacks of DEA model, combining with the concept of BSC. According to enterprise strategy, the relative importance of individual R&D project evaluation indicator is different. During the evaluation, it is necessary to introduce weight change information into the DEA method, thus a R&D project selection model is built based on DEA method with guarantee domain. Balanced Score Card (BSC) is a multiple performance evaluation system. It can transform enterprise tasks, decisions and internal departments into a variety of interrelated goals, and then decompose theses targets into multiple indicators. Based on the idea of BSC, the enterprise strategy is introduced into the DEA model, which can allocate the change range of input indicator weights under the same score card. It shows that DEA model is improved by introducing the real option theory and constraining the proportion of R&D project inputs, then the efficiency sorting of R&D projects is realized; Finally, the proposed model in this paper is verified through an actual example, with transverse contrast and sensitivity analysis. The R&D project selection differences between using the proposed DEA model and the standard DEA model in an aerospace enterprise are compared, and the corresponding operation code is developed by MatLab7.0. The results reveal that the model presented in this paper has higher efficiency division compared with the standard DEA model, and it could capture sensitively the evolution process that R&D project input and output changes impact upon efficiency. Above all,facing enterprise strategy, the selection model of multiple R&D projects in an enterprise is discussed under risk condition. Based on real option theory, constraining DEA model weight assignment with the BSC concept, R&D project investment factors and enterprise strategy are combined.Taking into account risks and uncertainties, the weight changes are limited within a special range, the standard C2R model is improved, and the sort results validity is made. The proposed model has higher discrimination. At the same time, it can capture, with precision and accuracy the process of input and output parameters on efficiency influence. The model proposed in this paper can effectively sort the efficiency of R&D projects, and effectively solve the selection of multiple R&D projects. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Herding Behavior of Institution and Individual Investors Based on LSV Model YAO Lu-shi, WU Ning-ning 2018, 26 (7):  55-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.007 Abstract ( 954 )   PDF (1152KB) ( 516 )   Save Overdeveloping institutional investors did not restrain the market fluctuation. It infringed on the benefits of small and medium investors. Based on the annual average 950 institutional investors' trading data in Wind database and annual average 400000 pieces of individual investors' trading data in a certain security company, LSV models are used to test the herding behavior from 1st quarter of 2006 to 1st quarter of 2016 in China's securities market.The differences of herding behavior between institution and individual investors are analyzed and the characteristics of investors' structure and market volatility are mainly combined. The results indicate that the institutional investors show typical herd effect, like public funds, insurance companies, securities companies, social security funds and QFⅡ. individual investors generally do not have significant herding behavior, only the individual investors of large money show significant herding behavior in certain years.The results also show the public funds' herding behavior is different in 1st, 3rd quarters and 2nd, 4th quarters, and the amplitude increases year by year. The herding behavior of insurance companies is easing. This research provides empirical data for further research and has certain practical values. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Two-sided Matching Method of Cloud Manufacturing Task based on Learning and Synergy Effect REN Lei, REN Ming-lun 2018, 26 (7):  63-70.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.008 Abstract ( 748 )   PDF (1490KB) ( 436 )   Save In the cloud manufacturing environment, smart service units with adaptive learning capacity can conduct resource delivery, information sharing and interaction with other services through social relationships to complete complex manufacturing projects together. According to the new features of manufacturing task relevance and service collaboration, a two-sided matching decision method for manufacturing tasks considering learning and synergy effects is proposed on the cloud platform. Due to the dynamics and repeatability of cloud transactions, services involved in multiple tasks task can accumulate experience and knowledge to improve its service quality. A calculation method of dynamic capability is put forward based on learning effect model, and mutual satisfaction for task and service can be aggregated by applying expected utility theory. Meanwhile, a synergy network is used to describe service social relationships, and collaboration satisfaction among services can be measured through synergy effect based on social network theory. Thus, taking the tasks', services' and inter-service collaborative satisfaction maximization as objective, a one to one two-sided matching muti-objective model is constructed considering the influence of learning and synergy ability on task execution performance. Through automobile cloud manufacturing case study, the optimal matching scheme is obtained to verify the validity of our model. Comparing with other three types of matching model, the proposed model has been obviously proved to be better in line with the requirements of actual manufacturing scene. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Signaling Quality by Warranty and Price in a Duopoly Market ZHANG Qi, GAO Jie 2018, 26 (7):  71-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.009 Abstract ( 815 )   PDF (1176KB) ( 378 )   Save Although consumers pay much attention on product quality (reliability), they may be uncertain about the quality information when the purchase decision is made. The manufacturer who provides high-quality products may have a different production and warranty cost structure from that with low-quality products. Hence, the high-quality manufacturer can signal its quality information by the retail price and the warranty period. Wise consumers can deduce quality information according to price and warranty period jointly. However, the extant researches examine the signaling effect of warranty and price individually. In this study, a novel signal model consisting of both warranty and price is proposed. A market consisting of an incumbent manufacturer and an entrant one is considered. The consumers are aware of the product quality of the incumbent manufacturer, but are uncertain whether the product quality of the entrant is high or low. The existence of separating equilibriums, and the pricing and warranty decisions of the two manufacturers when the quality information is signaled solely by warranty or jointly by both price and warranty are investigated. It is shown that there exists a separating equilibrium as long as the high-quality entrant holds a smaller marginal warranty cost than the low-quality one when quality is signaled solely by warranty. When quality is signaled jointly by warranty and price, there exists a separating equilibrium under some mild conditions. In addition, the equilibrium warranty is shorter and the price is lower when quality is jointly signaled by price and warranty than solely by warranty. Finally, the numerical analysis shows that there is more likely to be a separating equilibrium when quality is jointly signaled by warranty and price. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Decision-making of Joint Purchasing for Amelioration Items Considering Credit Sales ZHANG Yun-feng, WANG Yong, GONG Ben-gang, DAN Bin 2018, 26 (7):  84-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.010 Abstract ( 597 )   PDF (923KB) ( 308 )   Save The credit sales can enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, expand business scale, and help sales enterprises to ease the financial pressure. It has a great influence on the operation efficiency of the supply chain, and has become one of the important research topics in the field of supply chain management. The ameliorating items are a kind of ubiquitous goods, but the problem of joint purchasing for ameliorating items has not gotten enough attention. In a two-echelon supply chain of ameliorating items consisting of one supplier and multiple retailers, the supplier provide permissible delay in payments as a means of credit sales. The function of total cost per unit time of independent purchasing and joint purchasing for the retailers are built up respectively, and the optimal order cycle and minimum total cost per unit time of retailers under two purchasing modes are obtained. According to the relationship between the optimal order cycle and the delayed payment period, the functions of minimum total cost per unit time of the two purchasing modes are compared, and the conditions that joint purchasing is better than independent purchasing are got. On this basis, the minimum total cost per unit time of joint purchasing is treated as the allocation object, and multiple persons cooperative game theory is applied to transforming the cost allocation of joint purchasing problem into multiple persons cooperation game problem. After providing some basic properties of the game, a cost sharing method is designed based on the core of the game. Finally, the numerical example and sensitivity analysis are used to illustrate the theoretical results, and some managerial implications are put forward. The research can provide practical guidance significance for the enterprises who engaged in the production and sale of ameliorating items. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Policy and Channel Selection of Manufacturers under Different Dual Channel Structure LIANG Xi, JIANG Qiong, GUO Jin 2018, 26 (7):  97-107.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.011 Abstract ( 1159 )   PDF (1713KB) ( 570 )   Save In this paper,according to the characteristics of different sales modes of the online channel, it is divided into online direct sales dual channels,online distribution dual channels and online sales agency dual channels.Here a Stackelberg game where the manufacturer is leader and other players (retailer and online retailer) are followers is considered. Unit sales cost of manufacturer in online direct sales dual channels and commission ratio paid by the manufacturer to the agent in online sales agency dual channels are considered. It is essentially different from those presented in previous models in which the channel in controlled by the manufacturer or the traditional retailer.The proposed model is also demonstrated through a series of data sets. It is observed from the numerical study that the manufacturer gains more profits in the e-tail dual-channel and the agency dual-channel than the distribution dual-channel.If the manufacturertries to limit the unit sales cost and the commission ratio in small range. The profit of the manufacturer will decreases with the increase of the commission ratio, while that of the traditional retailer and the agent will increase with the increase of the commission ratio. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Closed-Loop Supply Chain Decision Model of Considering the Government Guidance on Manufacturer Energy Saving WANG Wen-bin, ZHOU Wei-ming, ZHANG Meng, LIN Xin-yi 2018, 26 (7):  108-118.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.012 Abstract ( 783 )   PDF (1741KB) ( 521 )   Save With the rapid development of economy in our country, the problems of environmental pollution become increasingly serious. The original products, which are high-pollution, high-consumption and low-output, cannot meet the demands of people's lives.The products, which are low-carbon, green energy-saving, environment-friendly, get more and more attention from the government, companies and consumers. Therefore, a manufacturer should produce environment-friendly products to meet the consumption demand.Although this mode will limit the enterprise development in a short period, it will provide more competitive and sustainable development for the enterprise in the end. For those reasons, the government should guide the manufacturer to produce the product. In this paper, the dynamic game method is used to study the influence on closed-loop supply chain decisions, which, under the guidance of government, depend on the energy saving degree of the manufacturer's production unit. Two closed-loop supply chain models-centralized supply chain model and decentralized supply chain model, consisting of a manufacturer, a collector and a consumer, are established. How should the government set the optimal level of benchmark energy saving to achieve the balance of corporate profits and social responsibility is additionally considered. At the same time, a compensation mechanism is used to coordinate the supply chain. The results show that the government should set the benchmark energy saving level in order to better improveenergy saving. The recovery rate increases with the increasing of benchmark energy efficiency.On the condition of the same benchmark energy saving level, the centralized supply chain has higher energy saving. Besides, when at the same benchmark energy saving level circumstances, the profits of manufacturer increase, while the profits of collector decrease, with increasing of the benchmark energy saving level. To activate the collector, a profit compensation contract is designed. The correctness of the above conclusions is verified by the example analysis.On the one hand, the results of this paper can provide guidance for the supply chain enterprises, which are under the energy-saving constrain. On the other hand, it can also provide theoretical support for the government to make the optimal benchmark energy-saving degree. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Design of Management Mechanism about Production Line Oriented to Custom Demands Based on the Mode of Amoeba Operation HU Sheng-qiang, LIU Xiao-bin, WANG Xin-lin 2018, 26 (7):  119-131.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.013 Abstract ( 683 )   PDF (1615KB) ( 349 )   Save Under the background of "Internet +",many manufacturers provide online custom business to increase the sales revenue and improve the competitive ability.In order to cope with the requirements of the customers about the high quality,fast delivery time and the randomness of outputs of each stage about the line,the manufacturer can design the management mechanism for the workshop learning from the model of Amoeba Operation.According to the product process,the workshop is divided into multiple organizations of amoeba that are relatively independent.The adjacent amoebas decide the price of the materials and trade with each other orienting to the market and the orders.When the promised delivery time affects the passing rate and total costs,for the decentralized decision-making,the Stackelberg game model based on the inadequate outputs penalty mechanism is set up including decisions of the input quantities and promised delivery time.For the centralized decision-making,a nonlinear optimization model with multiple decision variables is set up based on mechanism of resources sharing,the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution is proved by establishing the HESSE matrix.The performance distribution and interests incentive can be realized for all the amoeba organizations based on the mechanism of sharing of punishment and procurement costs.Based on the case study and parameters sensitivity,the main conclusions are as follows. With the increase of input quantities, the profits of the amoebas and the overall workshop first increase and then decline;The price discount for the delayed delivery is greater,the previous amoebas of the line would be more favorable but the last amoeba and the overall workshop would be more unfavorable. The greater the volatility of the passing rate is, the lower the expectd profits for each amoeba and the overall workshop is. The theoretical and practice values of the paper are as follows:the design of management mechanism about the workshop according to the Amoeba Operation; the consideration of the factors influencing the passing rate;the optimization and coordination of the n-level supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Inventory and Pricing Decision of an Integrated Cold Chain Based on Freshness WANG Shu-yun, JIANG Ying-mei, MOU Jin-jin 2018, 26 (7):  132-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.014 Abstract ( 673 )   PDF (1131KB) ( 472 )   Save Pricing and inventory control of deteriorating items have been the focus of cold chain control. In recent years, with the abundance of literature on pricing and inventory policy, more and more scholars start to research the joint pricing and replenishing policy for deteriorating inventory. However, most of them are with a view to retailers' policy rather than to a cold chain system, let alone the joint decision on inventory and pricing of an integrated cold chain. Moreover, deterioration in the previous researches is merely defined as the quantity loss of perishable products, which does not conform to all of the reality. In real life, the deterioration of fresh agri-products not only means the decrease in the quantity/number, but also means the decrease in the quality, which is called "double loss". Therefore, "double loss" should be involved to explore the effects on joint pricing and replenishing policy in the integrated cold chain. Firstly, the relations of quantity loss rate with freshness is built, where freshness is the function of preservation efforts and time. Meanwhile, the demand rate is considered as the function of both freshness and price. All the functions are justified. Secondly, an integrated two-echelon cold chain inventory model composed of one distribution center (DC) and a retailer is proposed, where DC is both a distributor and a logistics service provider. It takes the maximum system profit per unit time as the basis of decision making to analyze the effects of freshness on the cold chain profit preferably. A genetic algorithm is employed to find the optimal preservation technology, the optimal replenishment strategy and the optimal pricing. At last, as a simulation example, fresh-cut fruits and vegetables sold in a supermarket are analyzed to demonstrate the feasibility of the model. Through the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the decrease of the time sensitive coefficient or the increase of the freshness-keeping sensitive coefficient would result in the increase of system profit, and the time sensitive coefficient is more likely to change system profitability. However, not all fresh agri-products are adaptable to discount promotion. The research of the "double loss" on the effect of joint pricing and replenishing policy in the integrated cold chain provides a new idea for the study of fresh agri-products. The optimized model and analysis result also provide references for cold chain operation. The proposed model can be extended in multiple products and in coordination of the integrated cold chain system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quality Incentive Contract with Asymmetric Process Design Quality Information CAO Bin, GAO Jie 2018, 26 (7):  142-150.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.015 Abstract ( 672 )   PDF (1523KB) ( 381 )   Save Process design quality determines the product manufacturability, and hence influences the product quality. In a production outsourcing environment, the supplier's quality effort is generally non-contractible, and the process design quality may be asymmetric between the supplier and the manufacturer as it is the designer's private information. The asymmetric information brings great challenges for the manufacturer to design the quality incentive contract. In this paper, a manufacturer, who outsources the production to a supplier and keeps the process design in-house, or outsources both the process design and production, is considered. The final product quality is determined by the supplier's quality effort and the process design quality. The manufacturer's incentive-compatible quality contracts are examined by the Stackelberg Game theory and the incentive theory under the two outsourcing scenarios. It is shown that:a) the manufacturer can achieve the first-best quality and profit if the process design quality is common knowledge. b) The manufacturer with a high process design quality will decrease its quality penalty and increase the procurement price to signal the process design quality information when the process design quality is the manufacturer's private information. c) If the process design quality is the supplier's private information, the manufacturer can screen the process design quality information by a menu of quality contracts. In the latter case, the contract for the supplier with low process design quality has lower procurement price and quality penalty than that under symmetric process design quality information. By contrast, the procurement price is increased and the quality penalty keeps unchanged in the contract for the supplier with high process design quality. At last, the numerical examples are used to verify the impacts of asymmetric process design quality information on the manufacturer's quality contract. Our work enriches the supply chain quality management literature by considering the asymmetric process design quality information. The results show that the managers should pay a close attention to the asymmetric process design quality information and design effective incentive contract to improve the supply chain efficiency and product quality. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Regional Blockage Canadian Traveler Problem under Two Vehicles Information Sharing SU Bing, LIN Gang, CHENG Xin-feng, SUN Lu-lu 2018, 26 (7):  151-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.016 Abstract ( 565 )   PDF (1883KB) ( 253 )   Save The Canadian Traveler Problem has been introduced in Papadimitriou and Yannakakis, in which the vehicles know in advance the structure of the graph and the costs of all edges. However, some edges may fail and vehicles only observe that upon reaching an adjacent vertex of the blocked edge. The goal is to find the least-cost route from the source O to the destination D, more precisely, to find an adaptive strategy minimizing the competitive ratio by comparing the performance of this strategy with that of a hypothetical offline algorithm that knows the entire topologyin advance. Previous researches suppose that a vehicle sees that only one edge is blocked in each blockage, but the regional blockages often occur in a traffic network which is composed of multiple blockededges.In this paper, the regional blockage Canadian traveler problem of two vehicles information sharing is proposed, in which two vehicles can get the regional blockage information with finite lookaheadand share information each other. The goal is to find the least total travel time for two vehicles from the source O to the destination D.From the online point of view, an adaptive strategy——mixed greedy strategy is presented and the competitive ratio for the strategy is proved. An application of mixed greedy strategy for two vehicles in a traffic network is shown. The research results of this paper can provide effective theoretical basis for the multiple vehicles real-time routing problem and traffic flow guidance by traffic management department. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Railway Pricing and Operation Scheduling in Rail-sea Intermodal Transportation JI Ming-jun, YAN Yan, ZHU Hui-ling 2018, 26 (7):  159-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.017 Abstract ( 689 )   PDF (2635KB) ( 471 )   Save Facing with such huge container handling capacity, a collection and distribution system in high-efficiency is needed to equip with every large port. However, most activities of collection and distribution are done by truck transportation, which obviously is too homogeneous to meet the demand.On the one hand, since the railway department separates its politics and enterprise, more flexible price making is allowed and service level is making a progress. On the other hand, the national planning stresses the reform of railway transport repeatedly, which also makes great efforts to develop the rail-sea intermodal transportation. 18 railway center stations are built around China by relevant government and national enterprise, and many multi-joint ventures are introduced to develop rail-sea intermodal transport business, which makes the appearance of independent rail transport operator. They are different from the railway company and owe relatively independent transportation operation rights, such as Multimodal Transport Company in Dalian port. The pricing and operating optimization problem of railway transport service under the competition with road transport service is studied in this paper. In this paper, the formula of two stages model is used respectively:Customer Value=Customer Benefits-Customer Losses=Consumer Surplus Value-Opportunity Costs,Consumer Surplus Value=Consumer Utility-The actual price paid. The relationship between the pricing and the demand of the railway is determined through a two-stage model, and the route combination with the lowest cost is optimized under a certain pricing level. The model is solved by the self-designed heuristic algorithm and improved algorithm. In the third stage, when analyzing the two models, they need to be discussed respectively. The different profitability of railway departments under different pricing levels and demand levels is compared. Then, the ultimate railway department optimal pricing and the corresponding haircut program are determined comprehensively through the formula:Profit=Revenue-In-transit costs-In-station management costs-Handling costs-Average customer waiting costs. Finally, using data from market research, the result of optimal train routes, frequency and time is obtained under different prices. The result indicates joint optimization of pricing and operation strategy can achieve best profit for independent railway operator. The innovations of the paper are the combination of pricing and operation scheduling in rail-sea intermodal transportation, and the interactions between the two aspects are taken into consideration. The optimal decisions that would achieve the highest profit at last conclude the best price making as well as operation planning. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Drive Factor of Regional Carbon Productivity Disparities Based on Spatial Comparative Path Selection Model YAO Ye, XIA Yan, FAN Ying, JIANG Mao-rong 2018, 26 (7):  170-178.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.018 Abstract ( 678 )   PDF (1070KB) ( 348 )   Save With the increasingly outstanding conflict between social progress and the climate change, how to develop low-carbon green economy has become a hot topic in academic circle and among governmental policy makers. As the core issue of developing carbon economy, increasing carbon productivity is already taken as the key strategy to cope with climate changes. At present, there is a great disparity between China and developed countries in terms of carbon productivity. At the same time, apparent disparities of regions have also severely hindered the growth of low carbon economy in our country. Therefore, to narrow the gaps of regions and enhancing the overall carbon productivity, the study of the disparities in regional carbon productivity and the influencing factors behind it is of great theoretical and practical significance to the formulation of proper energy and environmental policies and the development of low carbon economy.In this paper, the theory of minimum spanning tree (MST) is introduced into structural decomposition analysis and the spatial comparative path selection (SCPS) model is creatively constructed, which can help us to analysis the drive factor of regional disparities of carbon productivity disparities among 27 regions. For building the SCPS model, based on the method of structural decomposition analysis, each region is regarded as one vertex and the variation of bilateral comparison as side length (Paache-Laspeyres spread index is used, which is represented as PLS for direct comparison and CPLS for indirect comparison). In this way, the MST that has a minimum sum of side lengths in a forms spanning tree can be got. Based on SCPS model, the regional input-output tables of China in 2012 is used and five factors, which are GDP, value-added coefficients, production technology level, local and foreign final demand, are chosen to decompose the carbon productivity. The results show that the major driving factor for the regional disparities of carbon productivity is the sectors' carbon intensity. In accordance with the results, it is suggested that balancing the regional discordance, enhancing investments on low carbon industry and promoting development of low carbon technology can help us achieve the "overall increasing goal" for regional carbon productivity in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Product Portfolio Strategy Selection Model-Based on Transformation Objectives YANG Ying-zhe, HUANG Guang-qiu 2018, 26 (7):  179-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.019 Abstract ( 703 )   PDF (1384KB) ( 480 )   Save In the background of industrial upgrading,enterprises are faced with the opportunities and tasks of transformation. At present,the economic transformation ability of enterprise transformation is relatively weak. The possible reason may be that they lack of consideration for coordination relationship between the transformation objectives and product portfolio strategy. In this case,the concept of transformation target fit is used to measure the match degree of product portfolio strategy and transformation objectives,and a product portfolio strategy selection model is constructed based on the transformation by using the fuzzy DEA method. The validity of this model is verified by using an instance analysis of industrial transformation enterprise. The product portfolio strategy with the consistency of the transformation target can better meet the needs of the enterprise transformation,creating better economic and social benefits. The model provides the guidance for enterprise transformation and product portfolio strategy in the same time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Green Innovation Efforts and Altruistic Preference Elicitation in Construction Project CHEN Zhe, CHEN Guo-hong 2018, 26 (7):  187-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.07.020 Abstract ( 633 )   PDF (1638KB) ( 367 )   Save Construction activities have a significant impact on the environment; green innovation in construction project depends on participants' cooperation efforts, green cooperation is an important way to promote the green innovation performance of construction projects. Taking behavior preference influence into account in behavior decision-making process is closer to the reality, and altruistic preference is one of the behavior preferences which will influence the cooperation behavior decision significantly. Based on a Stackelberg model between the leader and other participants of construction project, green efforts(including self-working effort and cooperative working effort) decision making process is analyzed with the consideration of altruism preference in decentralized and centralized decision context. Conclusions are as follows:(1)In most cases, the altruistic preference has a positive effect on the participant's effort, but the extent of influence and the direction of influence are affected by the decision context and the altruistic preference difference between participants. Participants' self-working effort has nothing to do with altruistic preference in decentralized decision context, while cooperative working effort only has positive correlation with his own altruism preference. In the centralized decision context, two kinds of efforts have a positive relationship with their own altruism preference, and negatively associate with partners' altruistic preference. The altruistic preference difference between participants will also affect the effect of altruism preference. The one who has stronger altruistic preference is willing to offer more self-working and corporative efforts in cooperation, while the one who has weaker altruistic preference will probably have an opportunistic tendency to reduce the level of effort in certain conditions. (2) Income distribution will affect both self-working effort and cooperative working effort of participants, but difference between participants' altruistic preferences will change the income distribution effect on efforts decision, namely altruistic preferences will also affect participants' efforts decision indirectly through income distribution; (3) The income distribution, altruistic preferences difference, working costs, social reputation and other factors will affect the altruism preference. A fair distribution of income will have a positive guidance effect on participants' altruism preference, and also a reasonable cooperative tasks and moderate social reputation incentive will induce altruistic behaviors effectively. In conclusion, contexts and related factors are necessary to be taken into account in the study of the altruistic preferences' influence in the behavior decision, which will make the research findings more realistic. References | Related Articles | Metrics