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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 April 2017, Volume 25 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    The Coordinated Development and Consistent Model Between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions
    LI Ai-hua, SU Jie, JIA Chuan-liang
    2017, 25 (4):  1-6.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.001
    Abstract ( 965 )   PDF (945KB) ( 927 )   Save
    Under the background of globalization, the future economic growth will more rely on the improvement of the system of science and technology innovation and technological progress. Therefore, the adjustment of economic growth and industrial structure can guarantee the stable economic development and at the same time to achieve a decrease in total carbon emissions. When the technology advance is invariant, which means there exists positive correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions, the carbon emission reduction model could be drawn from HUA'S economic growth and optimization model.The fractional programming model could be drawn from the coordinated development of economics growth with carbon emissions, and the method to solve the model is given. At the same time, the consistency between economic growth and carbon emission model could be concluded through the analysis of the relationship among economic growth rate, Frobenius root, consumption coefficient and carbon emission coefficient of consumption.The research result would help government to make decision for increasing economy and controlling carbon emissions at the same time.
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    Can the Changes in Exchange Rates have Spillover Effects on the Real Estate Price's Fluctuations?:Evidence from China's Real Estate Market 1997-2015
    HAN Xin-tao, LIU Xing
    2017, 25 (4):  7-17.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.002
    Abstract ( 1135 )   PDF (1121KB) ( 1131 )   Save
    Based on the historical trend of RMB exchange rate changes and real estate price's fluctuation in China, the comprehensive impact of exchange rate changes on real estate price and the mechanism of dynamic impact between each other are analyzed in theory. Based on monthly data from October 2007 to December 2011 and VAR-FBEKK model, the effects of the RMB exchange rates' changes on the volatility of real estate price form direct and indirect perspective are studied by introducing the money supply as an intermediary variable, and the estimating results of model are made a robustness test and a comparative analysis through simulating interrupt data of National New Housing Price Index from January 2011 to June 2015 by Principal Component Analysis. The results show that, the changes in RMB exchange rates don't play a directly significant role on the China's real estate price' s fluctuations, but indirect relationship of exchange rates' changes transferring to the real estate price's fluctuations may exist through money supply as an intermediary variable; the changes in RMB exchange rates have little directly spillover effects on the real estate price's growth rate, but both the co-volatility of exchange rates' changes and changes in the money supply and the volatility of changes in the money supply have significant impacts on the estate price's growth rate, namely the changes in RMB exchange rates have an indirectly spillover effect on the real estate price's growth rate. Therefore, the central bank should further coordinate monetary policy and exchange rate policy; continue to steadily implement the reform of the exchange rate regime, while strengthening "attention" on the real estate price's fluctuations. The above findings enrich the theoretical research of the relationship between asset price and exchange rate policy, and also provide new evidence of how exchange rate changes affect real estate price's fluctuation form the point of view of direct and indirect effects.
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    The Analysis of Investment and Financing on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Under New Financing Models
    XIANG Hua, YANG Zhao-jun
    2017, 25 (4):  18-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.003
    Abstract ( 1059 )   PDF (1471KB) ( 1390 )   Save
    To solve the financing problem of SMEs, a new financing model has been introduced, which is the equity-for-guarantee swap (EGS). In this paper, the optimal investment and financing decisions of a firm that uses a financial derivative, equity-for-guarantee swap (EGS) are studied, in an emerging market. With this swap, the entrepreneur obtains a loan from a banker guaranteed by an insurer, after granting the insurer a fraction (guarantee cost) of his equity.
    First, the price of equity and debt and the guarantee cost are provided based on equilibrium pricing rules. Second, in a real-options framework, the algebraic equations about the optimal investment timing and the optimal production scale respectively are derived. Finally, the optimal size of the loan is analyzed. In this paper, the analytical solutions of the pricing of the firm's securities and the guarantee cost are firstly obtained. Then, the relationships among the optimal investment timing and the optimal investment scale and the optimal financing structure are determined. In the end, the advantage of this financing model is shown. Economic analysis indicates that there is an U-shaped relation between the optimal production scale and the project risk. When the risk is smaller, the enterprises will accelerate the investment and increase the proportion of debt financing. Compared with the enterprises with all-equity financing and the enterprises with no financing constraints, the new financing model significantly increases the production scale of the firm. In contrast to the enterprises with all-equity financing, the optimal production scale and the optimal investment threshold all increase with the project volatility. The results in the paper have an import influence on the investment and financing decisions of small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, the comparative research between the option-for-guarantee swap and the equity-for-guarantee swap will be promoted in the future.
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    Study on the Incentive Mechanism of Internal Capital Transfer in Enterprise Groups based on Evolutionary Game
    GONG Zhi-wen, CHEN Jin-long
    2017, 25 (4):  26-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.004
    Abstract ( 922 )   PDF (1636KB) ( 880 )   Save
    In the case of imperfect external capital market, capital allocation is a very important problem in the enterprise group. The capital allocation of enterprise groups is a kind of capital transfer activity. Because of the relationship and the relative independence between the members of the group,the motivation and the results of the group's internal capital transfer are very complicated. In this paper based on the view of evolutionary game theory and the basic theory of internal capital markets, an evolutionary game model of Enterprise Groups' incentive behavior is established in internal capital transfers and deductives the strategy selection process in internal capital transfers between Enterprise Group headquarters and Group segment. And through the evolutionary game analysis of Enterprise Group's incentive mechanism in internal capital transfers, an effective governance mechanism is put forward for Enterprise Groups' internal capital transfers. The results show that if the group segment with a strong ability to capital transfers can get more capital transfer income per unit of capital transfer costs,the group headquarters in the formulation of incentive policies, can appropriately increase the proportion of capital gains. In the same time, the group headquarters get more benefits while not affecting the group segment capital transfer behavior. On the contrary, for the smaller group segment, the group headquarters in the formulation of incentive policies can be appropriate to increase the proportion of their income distribution, enhance the incentive, improve the enthusiasm of the group's capital transfer.
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    Stable Structure of Purchasing Coalitions with Horizontal Competing Retailers in Distribution Supply Chains
    XIAO Dan, ZHOU Yong-wu, SHI Xin-xiang, LI Chang-wen
    2017, 25 (4):  33-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.005
    Abstract ( 968 )   PDF (1034KB) ( 874 )   Save
    Purchasing plays a very important role in the practical operations for some companies. Many companies will purchase jointly in order to reduce the operational cost. Although many purchasing coalitions collaborate on the procurement, they still compete in other fields such as order quantity or price. Therefore, there is an interesting problem needed to solve, that is, how the farsighted stable structure of purchasing coalitions will be. In a two-echelon distribution supply chain formed by a single supplier and three competing retailers, the farsighted stable structure of purchasing coalition among retailers is analyzed by using the concept of farsighted largest consistent set(LCS) in the cooperative game theory under different discount schedules. It is found that the stable structure of competing retailers' purchasing coalition depends on the discount scale when the supplier provides a linear discount schedule. If the discount scale is low (less than 0.5), horizontal competing retailers will form a two-retailer purchasing coalition, the third retailer will be ruled, and if the discount scale is higher (more than 0.5), horizontal competing retailers will form the grand purchasing coalition, in order to enhance the competitiveness. However, when the supplier provides a two-part tariff discount schedule, the stable structure is always the grand purchasing coalition regardless of discount scale. In addition, it is also found that the grand coalition will be the stable structure for the farsighted retailers under other discount schedules by the numerical examples. This paper will provide some reasonable and operational suggestions for farsighted retailers form coalitions.
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    Decision Analysis of Substitute Product's Competition under the Indirect Internet Channel
    WANG Tao, YAN Bo, LI Hong-yuan
    2017, 25 (4):  42-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.006
    Abstract ( 999 )   PDF (1750KB) ( 1056 )   Save
    Research source of the problem: With the rapid development of E-commerce, many enterprises adopt the Internet channel to sell their products based on some purpose. And a growing number of large e-commerce companies have surged. These e-commerce companies provide a better option of indirect Internet channel to manufactures. Thus, the products of manufactures which are sold on the Internet platform of Amazon will substitute with the products of Amazon in some extent.
    Description of the problem: In this paper, the operation mode of Amazon is referred to construct an Internet channel model which consists with a manufacture and Amazon. Manufacture enters Amazon and sell its product, and decide the price p1. Amazon will sell its own products which is substitute with the product of manufacture in some extent α, and decide the price p2 of its own products. Manufacture will provide a certain percentage of sales revenue as commission and a fixed amount of the initial fee to Amazon. Amazon will exact logistics fee y of per unit product from manufacture for providing undifferentiated logistics services with Amazon's products.
    Methods Model of Research: The relationship between demand and price in economics is extended to the relationship between demand and logistics services and introduce the substitutability of products. The cross decision mode that Amazon will provide undifferentiated logistics services for manufacture's product is introduced into the model. Considering the difference between Amazon and manufacture in indirect Internet channel, these problems are studied in a Stackelberg game.
    Problem-solving ideas: Firstly, the situation of decentralized decision is studied,which Amazon decide the price of its own product and the undifferentiated logistics services firstly and manufacture will decide the price of its product according to Amazon's decision above between two participants in indirect Internet channel. Secondly, the situation of centralized decision is analyzed. Then, the total profits of two situations are contrasted. At last, the revenue sharing contract is used to coordinate the indirect Internet channel and Nash bargaining model is used to determine the final allocation scheme.
    Research results: Centralized decision can get more total channel profit than decentralized decision only when the product substitute rate is large, and the range of the rate will influenced by the logistics sensitive coefficient; the prices and logistics under centralized decision are larger than that of decentralized decision, but the difference of demands is influenced by the coefficient; no matter what decision situation, the coefficient will not change the diversification trend of related decisions, but change the value only.
    The introduction of case data: The data in the article is referenced with former related papers in a portion and provided in the official website of Amazon in a portion, such as commission, initial fee and logistics service fee. Thus, the results of numerical analysis in this paper can reflect the reality better.
    Contributions: The cross decision model which is constructed in this paper not only broadens the study related to indirect Internet channel, but also provided reference for the dual-channel in some extent. In addition, this paper dose not focuses on the competition between the same products, but on the substitute problem between two different products, it will provide reference to the research of supply chain.
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    Lead-time Order Behavior Study in Two-echelon Supply Chain with a Single Manufacturer and Multiple Customers
    LI Qun-xia, MA Feng-cai, ZHANG Qun
    2017, 25 (4):  52-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.007
    Abstract ( 829 )   PDF (1850KB) ( 862 )   Save
    There are many researches focusing on the optimum inventory solution in the supply chain that the order is committed at the lead time and the inventory shortage can be allowed. More specifically, the lead-time is assumed as a negative exponential distribution and the optimum inventory solution is conducted in one-manufacturer and one-customer supply chain. Or, the lead-time is assumed that it can be changed according to the time, and the inventory shortage can be allowed in one-manufacturer and one-customer supply chain. Or, only part of the inventory shortage can be backordered. In first case, the shortage needs so long time to be backordered in some times, and probably can't be backordered in the extreme condition.
    In this paper, the lead-time is assumed that it can be controlled. Once the order from the customer is provided, the shortage can be immediately backordered fully at the end of the order time. With such simple assumptions, the research is easily extended into the two-echelon supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and multiple customers. The optimization process can be described as follows. Firstly, the separate inventory models respectively relating to the manufacturer and the customers are formulated according to the manufacturing stock behavior and order stock behavior. Then the joint inventory model of the supply chain is provided by combining the separate models together. Finally, with the joint optimization method, the optimum parameters, i.e. the optimum reorder point, the optimum production time interval and the optimum order time are derived to guarantee the joint inventory model has the minimal inventory cost. Similarly, we also provide the optimum results for separate inventory models for comparison to show the advantage of the joint optimization method.
    The simulation analysis shows that the result about the estimated lead-time is so different between the joint optimization method and the separate optimization method. The interval of the lead time is much narrower in the joint optimization method. With enlarging the value of the lead time, the reorder point increases consistently in linear relation. All the customers have the same following result, i.e. the reorder point is larger in the separate optimization method than in the joint optimization method. In addition, we also simulate the relation between the inventory cost and the reorder point for all the customers. All the customers have same quadratic curve shape and the optimum reorder point is existed and at the bottom of the quadratic curve. The optimum reorder point is unique and is existed. This result is evidently shown that the proposed joint inventory model and the related optimization method are correct. The research result of the paper is helpful for the researchers to study the inventory optimization problem in the more complicated supply chain and it can be useful for real-world supply chain operation and optimization management.
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    Joint Pricing and Ordering Decisions for the Temperature Sensitive Product Considering the Loss Aversion
    CAO Bing-bing, FAN Zhi-ping, YOU Tian-hui, LI Qi
    2017, 25 (4):  60-69.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.008
    Abstract ( 883 )   PDF (2789KB) ( 859 )   Save
    In reality, there are temperature sensitive products, whose demands are usually related to the average temperature in the selling season. In joint pricing and ordering decisions for temperature sensitive product, the average temperature in the selling season can affect the market demand. Since the random variation of the average temperature exacerbates the fluctuation in the demand of the temperature sensitive product, the demand uncertainty increases with the random variation of the average temperature. With respect to the demand uncertainty, the retailer usually exhibits the psychological behaviors which can affect his/her decisions. Obviously, the variation of the average temperature and the behavioral factors of the retailer are important factors and cannot be ignored in joint pricing and ordering decisions for temperature sensitive product. Hence, it is necessary to pour attention to the study on joint pricing and ordering decisions considering the temperature and behavioral effects. Given that the existing research results are difficult to be used to solve the joint pricing and ordering decision problem for the temperature sensitive product considering the temperature and behavioral effects, the objective of this paper is to provide a decision method based on the optimization model to solve this problem. In this paper, two types of the temperature sensitive products are considered: One is the high-temperature suitable product, the temperature for its survival is higher and its market demand increases with the average temperature in the selling season. The other is the low-temperature suitable demand, the temperature for its survival is lower and its market demand decreases with the average temperature in the selling season. For demand uncertainty of the two types of the products, the retailer may exhibit the loss aversion. On the basis of this, the three questions concerned in this study are presented: (1) How does the average temperature in the selling season affect the demands of the two types of the products, respectively? (2) How is the loss aversion introduced into the joint pricing and ordering decision model for the two types of the products? (3) How do the average temperature in the selling season and the loss aversion affect the retailer's optimal price and order quantity? To answer these questions, the study is conducted by the following steps. First, the impact of the average temperature in the selling season on the market demand for the high-temperature suitable product and the low-temperature suitable product is analyzed, and the high- and low- temperature sensitive demand functions for the two types of the products are provided, respectively. Then, by analyzing the loss aversion of the retailer, the loss aversion utility is introduced into the total utility of the retailer based on the utility framework model proposed by Bell (1985), and a joint pricing and ordering decision model is constructed to maximize the retailer's total utility. Furthermore, according to the expected utility maximization theory, the retailer's optimal price and order quantity for the two types of the products can be obtained by solving the constructed model. Finally, the numerical study is conducted to show the impacts of the average temperature in the selling season and loss aversion parameter on the retailer's optimal price and order quantity with respect to the different temperature sensitive parameters. The results show that the average temperature in the selling season and retailer's loss aversion can affect the optimal policy in varying degree, and the optimal policy with consideration of the impact of the average temperature on the demand is more conservative than the one without the consideration of the impact of the average temperature on the demand. The results also show that, for the high-temperature suitable product, the order quantity of the loss-averse retailer is greater than the one of the loss-neutral retailer.
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    The Effect of Consistency Perception on Consumer Mobile-shopping Behavior: A Perspective on Cross Channel of Web-Mobile
    SHI Liang, LU Yao-bin, YANG Shui-qing
    2017, 25 (4):  70-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.009
    Abstract ( 1087 )   PDF (1961KB) ( 1032 )   Save
    Mobile shopping has become a new trend in the development of e-commerce, but the traditional successful e-commerce model cannot be directly applied to the mobile situation. In our study, three factors are constructed to interpret the behavior of consumers in terms of service evaluation and purchase intention based on categorization theory. Those factors are: evaluation of sources, evaluation of the targets and evaluation of the relationship between sources and targets. This study try to answer the following two questions: whether the evaluation of the sources (web service quality) of consumers will affect their evaluation of the targets (perceived mobile service quality and flow experience)? How can the relationship between source and target (perceived web- mobile service consistency) affect consumer's evaluation of the target, and how to influence the consumer's willingness to purchase in the mobile network environment? According to the above problems, the structural equation model is established, and five variables are construtcted to investigate their influence on consumer behavior intention. Four variables are designed inspired by the previous studies, which are:‘perceived information consistency’, ‘web service quality’, ‘flow experience’, ‘perceived mobile service quality’. Besides, a new variable, ‘perceived system consistency’,is developed to enrich the framework. A questionnaire of twenty questions are desingned to invite mobile service users of "www.jd.com" to participate in the survey, and 277 valid questionnaires are gotten. The empirical results show that consumers' evaluation of web service quality has positive influence on the perception of service quality and flow experience of the mobile channel. It is also found that perceived Web- mobile channel information consistency significantly affect the consumer's perception of the mobile channel service quality and flow experience, and then significantly affect the consumer's mobile phone shopping behavior. Our research not only provides more ideas for cross channel research in the future, but also suggests organization should ensure the quality of service while maintaining the consistency of information between channels, when they committed to multi-channel business.
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    Study of Cooperative Models in Logistics Service Supply Chain with Service Platform
    SHI Kui-ran, PU Jue, SUN Yu-Jing
    2017, 25 (4):  78-85.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.010
    Abstract ( 1104 )   PDF (1671KB) ( 915 )   Save
    Effective and efficient platform service and logistic operations crucially influence the success of firms in the newly emerged e-commerce. The logistics industry in China is fragmented, which leads to the duplication of logistics information system functions, the irregular and disconnected data, and asymmetric supply and demand information. The current literature related to e-commerce logistics tend to be qualitative, lack of quantitative analysis about how firms could effectively cooperate with partners. This study aims to investigate a logistics service supply chain system which involves in two functional logistics service providers, a single logistics service integrator and a supply chain service platform. There are four kinds of cooperative models are developed: the centrally cooperative system, the decentralized system, the L-F cooperative system and the F-F cooperative system. It is assumed that consumer demands are determined by sales price of service and logistics device level. Then, the optimal service level, the optimal wholesale price of service, the optimal sales price of service, and total supply chain profits are given by game-theoretic model. Furthermore, numerical examples illustrate the impact of unit information fee and sensitive factors of service level on the service price, market demand and the profits. It is found that the total supply chain profits of three cooperative models are always more than that of the decentralized system. The sale price of centralized system is even lower than the wholesale price of the decentralized system, the total market demand is significantlly increase and the optimal service level remains the same. Research results also show that when the supply chain service platform makes rules of the unit information fee, high charge is undesirable for the whole market and the players. Therefore, reasonable scope of charge can help the whole market have a long-term, steady and healthy development. The results of this study can help firms determine their practical strategies.
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    Supply Chain Coordination Mechanism on Capacity Based on Commitment Contract under C2B Mode
    XIAO Di, HOU Shu-qin
    2017, 25 (4):  86-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.011
    Abstract ( 885 )   PDF (1214KB) ( 869 )   Save
    C2B is a new e-business model, which is initiated by the customer and the enterprises respond quickly. Alibaba, Kadang and other well-known enterprises are actively promoting this model. C2B model can better meet the individual needs of customers, and minimize inventory, but put forward higher requirements for supply chain management. In the C2B model, the uncertainty of market demand and the long lead time make the demand forecast very difficult, it is easy to appear the situation of insufficient capacity or surplus, and because of the uncertainty of consumer's individual demand, it is difficult for a C2B enterprise to draw up a formal contract based on precise order quantity with the supplier, but the commitment contract provides an effective way to solve the problem. In this paper, a single-cycle two-echelon supply chain model consisting of a supplier and a C2B enterprise is considered. This study focuses on the application of the commitment contract to the supplier's capacity decision and coordination function of a decision-making which effected by the supplier's customization efforts. The decision-making sequence of the supply chain members is as follows: First, the C2B enterprise obtains demand forecast based on their understanding of the consumer market, and commitment to buy a certain amount of products, in order to share the supplier's capacity investment risk, demand forecast and commitment quantity are exogenous variables. Then, the C2B enterprise make decision on the degree of customization effort. Next, supplier determines the product capacity according to C2B enterprise's decision. After the demand realizes, the C2B enterprise issues the final order quantity to the supplier according to the actual received customer order. If the supplier can't meet the C2B enterprise's orders, unit penalty cost showd be paid. Finally, C2B enterprise delivers products to customers after completing customization processing .The game equilibrium of supply chain members in three situations is analyzed: centralized decision, decentralized decision, and contractual commitment. It also examines the effect of the important parameters such as the demand forecast for customized products and the proportion of committed orders to supplier and total profit. The result shows that the commitment contract has a good coordination effect on supply chain capacity decision in the contractual commitment situation, but the C2B enterprise needs reasonably set the parameters of the commitment contract to better play its positive role. The innovation of this paper lies in two aspeds as follows: Firstly, the coordination model of supply chain based on customer's individual demand was constructed, and the impact of demand forecasting, commitment and other factors on supplier capacity decision-making is investigated, which provides a theoretical basis for optimizing production capacity decision-making; Secondly, it expands the commitment contract to the design of supply chain coordination mechanism under C2B mode, and considers its impact on the customization efforts of supply chain members, which enriches the research content of commitment contract.
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    Regulation of the Adverse Selection Problem in the International Container Freight Agency Market
    LU Bo, WANG Hui-po
    2017, 25 (4):  95-103.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.012
    Abstract ( 831 )   PDF (1177KB) ( 846 )   Save
    There is a large number of illegal small freight forwarding companies in china. The unfair competition behaviors of these small freight forwarding companies disturb the market order and reduce the service quality. But why can these non-formal freight forwarding companies exist? This is the core problem to be solved in this paper. In this paper, the freight forwarding market is assumed to be a typical principal-agent market and two-sided market. In order to study the adverse selection behavior of the international container freight forwarding market based on the theory of two-sided market and the theory of asymmetric information, an adverse selection model is constructed based on two-sided asymmetric information structure. In the two-sided markets model, assuming that the owner of cargo is 1, the shipping company is 2, the international container freight forwarding company is. At the same time, assuming that the quality of service provided by international container freight forwarding companies is s, the average quality is s. Because of the information asymmetry, international container freight forwarding companies, the shippers and the owners of cargo, have different degree information about the quality of services. Each assesses their utilities according to their own understanding of the service quality. (1) When the owner choice a particular freight forwarding company's service, their utility assessed by themselves is:u11=U11(n2,s,s,p1). Here n2 is the number of the shippers that have cooperation relation with the selected freight forwarding company, p1 is the price the owner is willing to pay. (2) When the owner choice a particular freight forwarding company's service, their utility assessed by international container freight forwarding companies is:ui1=Ui1(n2,s,s,p2). Here p2 is the price charged by the international container freight forwarding companies. (3)When the shipper choice a particular freight forwarding company's service, their utility assessed by themselves is:u22=U22(n1,s,s,c1). Here n1 is the number of the owners that have cooperation relation with the selected freight forwarding company, c1 is the commission the shipper is willing to pay. (4) When the shipper choice a particular freight forwarding company's service, their utility assessed by international container freight forwarding companies is:ui2=Ui2(n1,s,s,c2). Here c2 is the commission charged by international container freight forwarding companies. Under the condition of proper control of the parameters, the equilibrium solution of the two-sided markets is solved. Through the analysis of the equilibrium results, our conclusions are as follows: (1) if there were no offsetting mechanism, international container freight forwarding market tends to die out; (2) The more important of the service quality of international container freight agent (for owners and/or shipping company), the more prone to adverse selection; (3) if the information is not improved, the government cannot eliminate the adverse selection behavior of the international container freight agency market through the governance of social welfare maximization. In this paper, the reliability of the conclusions is proved by numerical simulation and market cases. This study provides a new way to study the adverse selection problem in the principal-agent market use the theory of two-sided markets.is:u22=U22(n1,s,,c1). Here n1 is the number of the owners that have cooperation relation with the selected freight forwarding company, c1 is the commission the shipper is willing to pay. (4) When the shipper choice a particular freight forwarding company's service, their utility assessed by international container freight forwarding companies is:u2i=U2i(n1,s,,c2). Here c2 is the commission charged by international container freight forwarding companies. Under the condition of proper control of the parameters, the equilibrium solution of the two-sided markets is solved. Through the analysis of the equilibrium results, our conclusions are as follows: (1) if there were no offsetting mechanism, international container freight forwarding market tends to die out; (2) The more important of the service quality of international container freight agent (for owners and/or shipping company), the more prone to adverse selection; (3) if the information is not improved, the government cannot eliminate the adverse selection behavior of the international container freight agency market through the governance of social welfare maximization. In this paper, the reliability of the conclusions is proved by numerical simulation and market cases. This study provides a new way to study the adverse selection problem in the principal-agent market use the theory of two-sided markets.
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    Emergency Supply Problems and Collaboration Optimization of Emergency Traffic Network after Earthquakes
    HE Xin-hua, HU Wen-fa, ZHOU Xi-zhao, ZHENG AI-bing
    2017, 25 (4):  104-114.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.013
    Abstract ( 880 )   PDF (1851KB) ( 992 )   Save
    An earthquake often has impact on a traffic network from two aspects. The first one is a wide damage of theexisting transportation network which would decrease traffic capacity dramatically and cause frequent traffic congestions, and the second one is a soaring demand of transportation to deliver a great deal of injured people to other undamaged areas in a short time and to import many emergent resources to the damaged areas. Accumulation of above impact would worsen transportation reliability and reduce transportation capability of the traffic network. In order to avoid those adversities, based on recognizing traffic network properties under emergency conditions after an earthquake, a framework of emergency service resource supply and supply problems of emergency service resources after earthquakes are considered in this paper. An Emergent Transportation Collaboration Network (ETCN) is presented, which consists of a collection center of emergent service resources, a transit center of emergent service resources and distribution center of emergent service resources. All emergent activities in ETCN are classified into three working stages, and a Collaboration Supply Efficiency (CSE) coefficient to describe their relationships is introduced. Based on ECTN and CSE coefficients, an Emergent Supply Collaboration Model (ESCM) is developed, whose objectives are to maximize coverage area of emergent service resources and to minimize disaster loss. In order to ensure supplying emergent service resources and avoiding traffic congestions, a collaboration optimization model of emergent traffic network after earthquake is further developed from ESCM considering constraints of average transportation speed of emergency vehicles, road saturation, occupation ratio and queue length. Then, it is discussed that the changing principle of occupation ratio and queue length by variation of transportation speed of vehicles under emergencies. In the end, a case study is applied to testify a collaboration optimizationto ensure supplying emergent service resources. A numerical example demonstrates the proposed model is effective and the improved algorithmis efficient.This paper would be a theoretical base and potential practice solution for emergency traffic control and management.
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    The Research on Emergency Response Procedures Modularity Based on the Similarity of Directed Graph
    DENG Jie, CHI Hong, XU Bao-guang
    2017, 25 (4):  115-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.014
    Abstract ( 829 )   PDF (2009KB) ( 851 )   Save
    In very low-frequency,high-consequence emergency events, a group or individual's prior experience will influence judgments and decision. Emergency response procedures play a guiding role when emergency accidents happen. Through analyzing multiple emergency response procedures, it is found that some actions repeatedly work together with a sequence, if those actions can be normalizedand fixed as a module, reaction time will be reduced and coordination will be improved, the generation of emergency modular will provide a suggestion for the same type of emergency accident on adjusting and emergency training. The purpose of this paper is to extract the commonality and particularity module from multiple emergency response procedures, firstly partition the general directed graphwhich is formed by superimposing multiple emergency response procedures, and determine therepresentative of candidate module by defining the similarity of the directed graph. Finally, a mathematical programming model whose goal is to minimum the sum of procedures' difference and module's interface is built. Then, by designing the heuristic algorithm, all edges of general directed graph are distributed to response procedure modules. Through analyzing the case, it is verified that this method can obtain the module with demand, and it provides a methodological basis for rapidly reconstruction and functional combination on emergency response procedures.
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    Multi-objective Optimization Model of the Mmergency Logistics Distribution with Multicycle and Multi-item
    FENG Chun, XIANG Yang, XUE Kun, FENG Run-sen
    2017, 25 (4):  124-132.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.015
    Abstract ( 956 )   PDF (2158KB) ( 902 )   Save
    In emergency management and related fields, it's still a challenging research subject that how to respond post-disaster emergency requirements quickly to reduce losses of disaster through the efficient emergency logistics system. Based on principle of Humanitarian relief, the distribution and delivery strategies of post-disaster emergency logistics need to ensure both the maximization of the number of benefited victims and equal opportunity for every victim to be rescued. Otherwise, the result of inequity rescues will produce certain social costs. Depending on differences between characteristics of post-disaster supplies, demand can be divided into one-time demand and cyclical demand, which have different requirements for distribution strategies. In this paper, a multicycle and multi-item batch distribution model of emergency supplies is built to combine the efficiency target and the equity target, based on considering classification of emergency materials and uncertainty of supplies, in order to give consideration to both the minimization of emergency materials' distribution costs and the maximization of the equity target. The efficiency target achieves effective use of relief supplies by minimizing distribution costs which are produced in the material distribution part in the planning cycle; the equity target minimizes social costs which are produced by unsatisfied demands in the planning cycle, for achieving equilibrium assignment of supplies between affected nodes. Besides, two-phase algorithm is designed to solve the Pareto disaggregation of multi-objective optimization model. The first step is the search of feasible path set,according to the vehicle capacity constraints and single-cycle travel time constraints.In the second step,based on the theory of ε-constraint optimization method, multi-objective optimization problem is converted into a series of single-objective optimization problem,and the optimal solution for each single-objective optimization problem is seemed, thereby obtaining the Pareto disaggregation of the model. At last, the rationality of the model and the feasibility of the solution are verified through designing reasonable examples and solving. The results indicate that the cycle distribution strategy to achieve batch distribution can (1) ensure that all affected nodes could receive the first batch of key relief supplies in a short time;(2) reduce social costs arising from allocation inequality and distribution delays;(3) improve the equity of the distribution and allocation of emergency supplies. In addition, calculating the Pareto front for policy-makers can provide a variety of decision-making schemes, and help decision makers intuitively understand the relationship between the efficiency target and the equity target, thereby developing effective distribution strategies according to the specific circumstances.
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    Optimization of the Costs in Multi-tasking Grey GERT Based on z Tags
    GENG Rui, ZHU Jian-jun, WANG He-hua, LIU Xiao-di
    2017, 25 (4):  133-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.016
    Abstract ( 1020 )   PDF (1645KB) ( 777 )   Save
    During a project, the period and the cost are often what the customer pays closo attertion to. For a multitask one, the ultimate completion time depends the slowest task. As a result, there is certain flexibility for those tasks that could be finished before the last one. We can make good use of the flexible time to reduce the overtime pay and equipment upgrade fee etc. so that the overall expense can be reduced. Based on the previous research, there is a certain relationship between time and expense. For multiple dependent projects, better time schedule could not only slow down the whole project but also reduce the overall expense. In this paper, this problem is addressed by GERT network. To be more specific, in the GERT network, the relationship between the progresses of each task is traced via Z-tags. The fixed time and flexible time are also defined, and the experiments of the expense are conduced involved in flexible time and fixed time respectively. When the flowing money in task network becomes a function of time, we can optimize the overall project fee can be optimized while avoiding delaying the whole project by adjusting the time schedule. Moreover, the customer content maximization (CCM) method is used to optimize the project fee. The CCM is defined as the weighted sum of expense content and risk content. At last, the project of one large passenger cabin environmental control system and work on the flexible time and expense of each task are investigated. It is found that our method is able to make full use of the flexible time of each task so as to reduce the overall project fee, which is full of practical values.
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    Congestion Control of Express Delivery Network Based on Connection Cost
    YANG Cong-ping, ZHENG Shi-jue, DANG Yong-jie, YANG Qing
    2017, 25 (4):  143-151.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.017
    Abstract ( 976 )   PDF (2166KB) ( 666 )   Save
    By adopting graph theory,congestion control of express network is studied in this paper. Through the analysis of the characteristics of the network traffic flow and the study on the effect of the structure of express network on the network transmission capability, balancing the relationship between the network transmission capability and the connection cost. First of all, the concept of betweenness is introduced. Considering the relationship between the betweenness and cargo flow, the betweenness definition is modified, and the calculation method of betweenness is designed. Next, according to the betweenness calculation formula, the relationship of express network transmission capacity, node betweenness and node capacity are derived. Then, by taking the minimum connection cost as the optimization goal, an optimization model of express delivery network with the constraint of expect transmission capacity is constructed, and an algorithm is designed to seek the network with the optimal structure by gradually adding edge, reconnecting edge and deleting edge. Finally, the example of the backbone network of an express delivery company in Guangxi province is taken to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The result of simulation indicates that the algorithm can effectively find out the optimal delivery network. Through the research, it is found that processing power and betweenness of the bottleneck node decision network transmission capacity, and there is a contradiction between network transmission capacity and connection cost.
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    Two-stage Optimization for Yard Trailers Routing In Container Terminals
    ZHAO Jin-lou, HUANG Jin-hu, LIU Xin
    2017, 25 (4):  152-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.018
    Abstract ( 866 )   PDF (1139KB) ( 965 )   Save
    With the continuous development of container transportation business, the efficiency and management level of container terminal is more and more important. At the same time, the problem of yard trailers routing receives more attention because yard trailers work as the main machine to carry containers in the horizontal direction at terminals. However, most current research on yard trailers routing problem did not consider the influence of no-load distance on trailers' transport efficiency, and a large part of current research just made routing optimization for singer yard trailers ignoring the condition of different trailers. Under the above background, a two-stage routing optimization model which consisting of two relevant models for yard trailers is proposed to solve the routing problem based on pool strategy. This strategy means loading and unloading operations are performed during one work route instead of doing loading and unloading operations separately. On the first stage, a routing optimization model is given to minimize the route distance without considering the number of yard trailers. This model is used to determine which import and export blocks to go through. On the second stage, for the purpose of minimizing no-load distance, the other routing optimization model which considers the number of trailers is constructed based on the result of the first model. According to the characteristics of two models, the software of Lingo is used to solve the first model, and particle swarm optimization method is utilized to solve the second model which involves route assignment and job order for every trailer. The results show that the no-load distance and no-load rate are decreased after the optimization on the second stage. In addition, with the second stage model, it is found that increasing the number of trailers is helpful to reduce the no-load rate. By proposing the two-stage routing optimization model, both the no-load distance and the number of yard trailers are taken into account and improves the existing research.
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    Group Evaluation Method and Its Application from the Psychological Threshold Cooperation Perspective
    ZHOU Ying, YI Ping-tao, GUO Ya-jun
    2017, 25 (4):  158-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.019
    Abstract ( 968 )   PDF (1236KB) ( 822 )   Save
    In the face of complex evaluation problems it requires the joint participation of multiple evaluators, which is termed group evaluation. Normally there are some different evaluation results from different evaluators in the group evaluation process. The differences are composed of evaluators' rational analysis and subjective psychological effect. In which rational analysis as experience or knowledge is objective and difficult to change. Thus, reduce group evaluators' subjective psychological effect results is an important part of rational group evaluation process design. Psychological threshold is an essential component of the subjective psychological effect. It is defined as: psychological qualitative critical point that just can cause feelings or perceived differences in the minimum amount of stimulation. Different evaluators' psychological threshold would lead to some deviations between evaluation result and true value. The psychological threshold differences are produced during the process of evaluators score on evaluated objects' index values or assign weighs according to the degree of importance.
    Therefore, a new method of group evaluation is proposed based on psychological threshold synergistic. Firstly, the presumption and process description of psychological threshold group evaluation is described. Secondly, the psychological threshold assignment arithmetic of corresponding efficiency indicator, cost indicator, central indicator and interval indicator is structured. Then the evaluation matrix can be adjusted by the psychological threshold assignment. Thirdly, the psychological threshold assignment of group indicators weighting and the adjustment of indicators weighting matrix are put forward. Finally, the adjustment matrixes are aggregation and the result of the group evaluation which is closer to the real value is gotten. Specific example indicates that the method is effective and feasible. Moreover the evaluation results of traditional and new test methods are not equivalent.
    This method has been expanded to the traditional group evaluation. In response to this shortage of traditional method doesn't consider the effect on different psychological threshold, preliminary solutions are presented. The method enables subjective evaluation information from group evaluators achieves a better coordination and unity. The rationality and reliability of the evaluation results can be improved.
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    Method for Large Group Decision-making with Uncertain Linguistic Assessment Information Based on MC-EMD
    LI Hai-tao, LUO Dang, WEI Bao-lei
    2017, 25 (4):  164-173.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.020
    Abstract ( 981 )   PDF (1499KB) ( 982 )   Save
    Traditional linguistic group decision-making (GDM) methods are usually required to determine decision makers' (DMs') weights, by which the assessment information of all DMs can be aggregated. However, the weighting methods are generally of different judgment scale, and they also have too much man-made subjectivism. Meanwhile, uncertain linguistic assessment information is practically convenient and demanded when applied to large GDM. Accordingly, a method for multi-attribute large GDM with uncertain linguistic assessment information is proposed in this paper, based on Mentor Carlo empirical mode decomposition (MC-EMD).
    First of all, uncertain additive linguistic variables and their expected deviation are defined, and a unified approach for hybrid assessment information, which is due to different assessment scale, is also presented. Then, considering that the DMs' expected deviation is usually required as small as possible when GDM with linguistic assessment information, a single-objective optimization model based on minimum deviation is established to compute the attribute weights. After that, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, which can preferably decompose nonlinear and non-stationary time series, is used to decompose the DMs' comprehensive linguistic assessment value sequence, thus the subjective random components and objective trend components can be acquired, and the mean value of objective trend components is regarded as GDM result. Furthermore, considering that the DMs' comprehensive linguistic assessment value sequence do not have time series characteristic and the sequence permutation is randomly generated, different sequence permutation may have different EMD decomposition results (also may not result in decomposition), thus leading to the uncertainty of GDM result, in this paper, the DMs' comprehensive linguistic assessment value sequence permutations are randomly generated by Monte Carlo (MC) method, let p(1 ≤ pr!, r is the number of DMs, generally r>11) be the preset random sampling number of MC, computational simulation method is used to find an appropriate p, which can ensure a lower volatility of the overall objective tendency of DMs' assessment information and a higher stability of the alternatives ranks, and by which the best alternative can be chosen. A specific case is presented at the end of this paper to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. Compared with information integration methods of traditional linguistic GDM, the MC-EMD method extracts assessment information directly without determining DMs' weights, to eliminate the subjective factors influence to a greater extent, thus the GDM result is more coincident with the objective assessment law. Additionally, the GDM algorithm of this paper can be conveniently organized to execute and also be easily achieved by programming in computer, therefore, it is especially applicable for the emergency decision-making.
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    (Linguistic) Heronian Mean Operators and Applications in Decision Making
    LIU Wei-feng, CHANG Juan, DU Ying-xue
    2017, 25 (4):  174-183.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.021
    Abstract ( 962 )   PDF (950KB) ( 968 )   Save
    In information aggregation of multiple attribute decision making, some aggregation operators are defined based on the hypothesis in which all the attributes are mutually indenpent, resulting in unreasonable information aggregation and decision result. Heronian mean operator is an aggregation opeator in which can deal with the situation of interrelationshiop between attributes, and from the theoretical and and practical points of view, it is worth to study and generalize Heronian mean operator. Firstly, aiming at weighted Heronian mean operator without reducibility in related reference, the generalized weighted Heronian mean operator(GWHM) with reducibility is introduced. And then, the three parameters Heronian mean operator(TPHM) and the three parameters weighted Heronian mean operator(TPWHM) are defined, and their basic properties such as idempotency, monotonicity and boundness are studied. Further, in order to fulfill applications of Heronian mean operator in linguistic multiple attribute decision making, linguistic weighted Heronian mean operator(LWHM), three parameters linguisitic Heronian mean operator(TPLWHM) and three parameters linguisitic weighted Heronian mean operator(TPLHM) are dedined, and their properties such as idempotency, monotonicity and boundness are also discussed. Finally, an approach to multiple attribute decision making based on the (linguisitic) Heronian mean operators is proposed, and two practical examples are given to illustrate our results.
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    Study on Enterprise Technology Outsourcing with Downside Risk Averse Agent
    REN Long, LIU Jun
    2017, 25 (4):  184-189.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.022
    Abstract ( 857 )   PDF (881KB) ( 795 )   Save
    To acquire competitive advantages in an ever-changing business environment, many business gurus step up to outsource their non-core activities to third-party members. Except for some basic activities such as operations and marketing, R&D outsourcing has become prominent since 1970s. There are many success examples such as IDEO, an international design and consulting firm founded in California, in 1991, participating in the design of Apple Mouse. Different from other activities, R&D outsourcing is with high uncertainty and information asymmetry. The risk sharing and information issues are very important for both participants. To tackle with these problems, a principal-agent like R&D outsourcing problem between a technology provider and buyer is studied. Since the buyer can't observe the provider's R&D effort, an optimal contract must be designed to alleviate the moral hazard problem. The contract is composed of two parts, namely fixed payment and unit payment. Fixed payment mean no matter what the random output is, the provider will get this part. The unit payment is the gain for each unit output. Faced directly to R&D risks, the technology supplier is regarded as a downside risk averse agent. The provider's risk aversion attitude is modeled with Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. By solving this optimization problem with KKT conditions, the VaR results are compared against the seminal mean-variance framework, and it is founol that: 1) the unit payment under VaRincreases as the demand volatility increases, while it decreases under M-V framework; 2) as the risk aversion increases, unit payment in VaR increases while M-V decreases; 3) as the provider becomes more risk averse, the fixed payment under VaR increases; 4) reserved profit and risk control level plays different roles in determine the optimal parameters, the reserved profit doesn't impact on the unit payment while the risk control level influences them both. VaR method not only overcomes the shorting comings of mean-variance method in theory, such as M-V can't separate upper gains with downside loss. The VaR method also provides much more clear managerial insights for technology outsourcing problem.
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    Robust Decision-Making of Project Portfolio Selectionwith Uncertain Project Interactions
    TAO Sha, SHENG Zhao-han, ZHU Jian-bo
    2017, 25 (4):  190-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.04.023
    Abstract ( 915 )   PDF (1257KB) ( 1008 )   Save
    Project portfolio selection (PPS) is one of the most important basic problems in the field of project management. PPS is to select a subset of projects from candidates subject to resource capacity and some other constraints to realize one or more goals. By integrating some features, such as project interactions, parameter uncertainty and multiple objectives.The PSS is more complex and difficult to be solved. In practice, project interaction is influenced by many factors among which the relationships are uncertain and complicated.Consequently, the project interaction is usually with severer uncertainty and its probability distribution is difficult to estimate. Therefore, in this paper, the PSS problem with uncertain project interaction is investigated. At first, without considering uncertainty, the programming model is formulated to maximize the total profits for the PSS with two types of project interactions including profit interaction and resource consumption interaction. Then, the uncertainty of project interactions is taken into consideration. The uncertainty is defined as an interval with nominal value and the half-interval width. Two controller parameters called objective robustness level and constraint robustness level are also defined,which vary in the interval [0, 1].The objective robustness level and constraint robustness level control the robustness of objective function and constraints against the level of conservatism respectively. Based on the definitions of uncertainty as well as robustness level, the general robust optimization model is formulated.To solve the model, its robust counter part as a linear mix integer programming is derived on the basis of optimization theory. A case of R&D project portfolio selection is illustrated and numerous experiments are conducted to investigate the relationship among two robustness levels and the objective. Experiments show that the method can adjust the robustness of solutions, and thus can provide project managers who have different risk preferences with decision support.
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