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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    20 March 2017, Volume 25 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Study on the Guarantee of Asset Securitization Pricing from the Perspective of Bond Issuers
    WANG Jin, HE Jian-min, TANG Zheng-hong
    2017, 25 (3):  1-9.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.001
    Abstract ( 1137 )   PDF (1375KB) ( 1296 )   Save
    To alleviate funding pressure of enterprises, especially middle and small-sized ones, and to assure application of deferred payments in business activities, the concept of guarantee backed commercial paper was proposed based on the functions of commercial paper and potential funding risks of asset backed commercial paper. The pricing of the proposed paper, whose underlying assets are backed by guarantee, was also studied. The key point of financing tool issuance is that whether the pricing of it could reflect interests of issuers and investors at the same time after paying cost to other stakeholders. And for a new tool, the interest of issuers must be the first consideration. Like asset backed commercial paper, guarantee backed commercial paper is also a generalized kind of asset securitization. However, the traditional pricing methods of asset securitization, which focus on the medium and long term asset, do not apply to guarantee backed commercial paper. Therefore, the concept of utility maximization was applied in the present paper to obtain reasonable price and its constraint conditions. The potential issuer exhibits more behavioral rather than rational traits given the bargaining power of institutional investors, which are more common in commercial paper markets, and the consideration of risk and payoff affected by contingency. Thus, the cumulative prospect theory was used to capture different risk attitudes when individual facing gains or losses, and utility function of the issuer was presented via value and weight functions. Results have shown that mathematical model of pricing is just relevant to net profit and does not take risk attribute, weight function and parameter of market turbulence into account. Thus, the issuer it risk neutral in this circumstance. Furthermore, a case study was conducted by substitute parameters in pricing model and its constraint conditions with data gathered from relevant guarantee business of micro-credit companies in Jiangsu province. Simulation between total profit, issuance scale, price and concerned variables are performed with given reference point and profit function. Results have shown that this pricing method could help issuers to determine a reasonable range of pricing, and that the final price of the guarantee backed commercial paper is depend on supply-demand relationship and bargaining power of both sides in the market.
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    Threshold Realized Stochastic Volatility Model and its Empirical Test
    WU Xin-yu, LI Xin-dan, MA Chao-qun
    2017, 25 (3):  10-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.002
    Abstract ( 1176 )   PDF (2527KB) ( 1245 )   Save
    Volatility in financial markets has attracted a great deal of attention from academics, policy makers and practitioners during the past decades, primarily because it plays a crucial role in many financial applications, such as portfolio selection, option pricing and risk management. It has been well-documented in the finance literature that the financial market volatility is not a constant but in fact changes over time and financial time series exhibits volatility clustering. In addition, many empirical researches have indicated that the mean and volatility of asset returns respond asymmetrically to market news. Recently, with the development of information technology, the availability of high frequency data means that it has become possible to measure the latent volatility using the so-called realized volatility (RV) measure. Under some assumptions, the RV is a consistent estimator of the true volatility. In the real market, however, the RV measure computed from high frequency return data suffers from microstructure noise. In this paper, both the threshold effects and realized volatility measure are incorporated into the standard stochastic volatility (SV) model and the threshold realized SV (TRSV) model is proposed to model the volatility of asset returns. The model is able to account for time-varying volatility and volatility clustering and capture simultaneously the mean and volatility asymmetries in asset return data. Also, this model, which uses high-frequency data containing valuable intraday information to extract volatility information, can estimate RV biases and parameters simultaneously. The lack of a closed-form expression of the likelihood function makes the estimation of the SV models being a challenging topic in the literature. In this paper, the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique is adopted to implement the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method for our proposed TRSV model. The Monte Carlo simulation study shows that the EIS-ML estimation method can provide appropriate and accurate inference for the parameters of the proposed model. Finally, the TRSV model is applied to the intraday high-frequency data of Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange component index of China. Empirical results show that the TRSV model captures the volatility dynamics appropriately and provides better fit to the data compared to the realized SV (RSV) model. Moreover, strong evidence of high persistence of volatility and the mean and volatility asymmetries is detected in Chinese stock markets.
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    Simulation and Evolution Model of Herding Behavior in Stock Market Based on the Strategy of Coordination Game in Network
    BIAN Yue-tang, LI Jin-sheng, XU Lu
    2017, 25 (3):  20-29.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.003
    Abstract ( 1307 )   PDF (5531KB) ( 1302 )   Save
    Taking into account the characteristics of investors' strategic imitation, herding behavior evolution model in stock market is developed based on the strategy of network coordination game and the assumption of the investors' limited rationality.By mean-field analysis and extensive simulations, the evolution of investors' trading behavior in various typical networks under different risk dominance degree of investment behavior is investigated.Our results indicate that the evolution of investors' behavior is affected by the network structure of stock market and the effect of risk dominance degree of investment behavior; the stability of equilibrium states of investors' behavior dynamics is directly related with the risk dominance degree of some behavior; connectivity and heterogeneity of the network plays an important role in the evolution of the investment behavior in stock market.
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    Write-down Contingent Capital and Managerial Compensation Design
    TAN Ying-xian, YANG Zhao-jun, LUO Peng-fei
    2017, 25 (3):  30-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.004
    Abstract ( 1174 )   PDF (2129KB) ( 1286 )   Save
    Most of domestic banks have issued Write-down Contingent Capital Bonds (write-down CoCo bonds). Intuitively, such a new contingent capital must induce a considerable adventure motivation of managers under the fixed wage and equity incentive compensation structure. To mitigate and even completely eliminate this incentive, contingent cash compensation is taken as a manager's long-term incentive fee and a new scheme of managerial contingent compensation is established. The effects of write-down CoCo bonds issuance and managerial contingent compensation design on managers' risk-taking motivation are studied. The value of the issuing company, the ruin probability, bankruptcy cost, and the risk premium of the common bond. Closed-form solutions of the values of the write-down CoCo bonds and managerial wealth are obtained under a risk-neutral probability measure. By numerical simulations, it is found that write-down CoCo bonds increase the value of the issuing company by reducing their bankruptcy probability, but enhance the managers' adventure motivation. In contrast, the managerial contingent cash income can restrain this motive. In addition, shareholders of the issuing company can adjust the amount of contingent cash compensation or the fraction of equity to control the adventure motivation of managers and in particular, regulators are able to control the risk of the banking system by adjusting the trigger level to write down. Therefore, our analysis has theoretical and practical guiding significance for risk management problems of the issuer and bank regulators, and it is helpful to the current reform in the financial institution compensation of managers.
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    Valuation for Forestry Investment Projects with Carbon Sequestration Benefits——Based on Real Option Pricing Theory
    HE Xiao-bo, WANG Dong-mei, ZENG Shi-hong
    2017, 25 (3):  39-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.005
    Abstract ( 1078 )   PDF (3886KB) ( 1048 )   Save
    Green development has emerged in various fields and one of the most fundamental fields goes back to green agriculture. Under the influence of carbon emission which has become increasingly serious, the development of forestry carbon sequestration eases the pressure on corporate emissions. And it also brings the new gain points to forestry investors. The traditional evaluation of forestry investment project only considers the wood cutting benefits, which has been undervalued.
    In order to assess the value of forestry investment projects with carbon sequestration benefits, the benefits of carbon sequestration are taken as endogenous variables into the classic faustmann model. On the basis of calculating the net present value of traditional wood(NPVw), it adds the net present value of carbon (NPVc). The land expectation value(LEV) of forest within the investment period is calculated by building timber-carbon sequestration joint management decision-making model, which is regarded as theinitial value of forestry projects. And the basic idea of compound real option is adopted, the expansion option, contracting option and abandonment option are introduced in the process of investment and the method of stochastic dynamic programming is selected to solve the maximize market value of the investment project. It is assumed that the deadline of project is 20 years and the period is divided into four stages. On the other hand, it is assumed that the value of project increases ɑ times after executing the expansion option and decreases β times after executing the contracting option. The binary tree option method is combined to analyze the portfolio and strategy problems of forestry projects. So that the compound real option pricing of the carbon sequestration benefits attached forestry investment projects can be implemented.Take a project of carbon sink afforestation in Zixing city in Hunan province as an example. The Chinese fir is selected for analyzing, and the time of project is from 2008 to 2027. There is non forest land before investment, with a total area of 2,665.3 hectares. The results show that the forestry value with carbon sequestration benefits is greater than traditional value. In the absence of carbon sinks trade, the net income present value of timber within 20 years is 172 million Chinese yuan, but it increases to 191 million Chinese yuan when existing the benefit of carbon sink. And the value of project eventually can increase to 329 million Chinese yuan after the introducing real option, which means to implement the option value as high as 138 million Chinese yuan.Therefor the value will increase significantly when we use the compound real option to assess the value of forestry investment projects. By further analysis, it is found that the price fluctuation of carbon sink and wood positively correlated with the value of forestry project. And once the other conditions is stable, the higher investment cost is, the lower option value will be.
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    Performance-based Equity Incentive and the Choice of Earnings Management Modes
    LIU Yin-guo, SUN Hui-qian, WANG Ye, GU Liu
    2017, 25 (3):  49-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.006
    Abstract ( 1182 )   PDF (1083KB) ( 1052 )   Save
    Using the samples of listed companies in Chinese A share market which implemented equity incentive plans during the 2006-2012, and using the difference between the rights vesting performance requirements is set in equity incentive plan and company's past actual performance level to measure the independent variables, this paper investigates the relationship between performance-based equity incentive and the choice of earnings management modes. This paper finds that:the degree of real earnings management which implemented by the company with a "incentive" equity incentive plan is greater than the one which implemented by the company with a "non-incentive" equity incentive plan. The higher the exercise rights vesting performance requirements compared to company's past actual performance level is, the greater the extent of real earnings management induced is. In order to achieve the exercise rights vesting performance requirements, the listing corporation's managements will comprehensively use real earnings management and accrual-based earnings management. The results show that, it is very important to set reasonably performance indicators level in the equity incentive plans, and too high or too low performance indicators level would make the equity incentive effect run counter to our desire. The main contribution of the paper is that equity incentive intensity is measured according to exercise rights vesting performance requirements which is an innovation based on Chinese situation, and that the literature about the relation between equity incentives and earnings management are enriched from the perspective of real activities earnings management and the comprehensive use of real and accrued earnings management.
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    The Impact of Private Enterprises Corruption on R & D Investment: An Empirical Analysis Based on Private Listed SMEs' Data
    GAO Yang-zhi, RAN Mao-sheng
    2017, 25 (3):  59-67.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.007
    Abstract ( 1149 )   PDF (951KB) ( 1276 )   Save
    Numerous researches indicate that the innovation efficiency and activity of private enterprises are well above state-owned ones. Nevertheless, private enterprises are facing many institutional obstacles during technological innovation researches, such as lacking safeguard mechanism of innovative revenue, e.g. R&D funds scarcity and deficiency on IPR protection system. Hence, some private enterprises might establish political relationships with the government officer for gaining research resources and protecting R&D achievements. However, the high corruption expenditure on such relationship could also reduces the marginal productivity of innovation activities and entrepreneurship rewards, thereby restraining the R&D investment. Consequently, in this paper. focus is mainly put on two research gaps:firstly, what impact the private enterprises' corruption activities (as an alternative mechanism for formal institution) has on their R&D investment under the economic transition environment of China? Secondly, is there any different impact during the change of company size and local institutional environment? Primarily, anin-depth theoretical analysis for above thesis has been made in this paper in the context of economic institutional transition in China. Afterwards, by means of establishing excess entertainment & travel expenditure model of private enterprises, the excess entertainment & travel expenditure is taken as alternative variable to represent corporate corruption expenses. Data of Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed SMEs' from 2007 to 2014 is collected and regression methods including OLS, 2SLS and Logit are used to implement empirical analysis on above research thesis. The final results from this study indicate that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between corruption expenditure and R&D investment intensity of private enterprises. Moreover, such a relationship varies in the change of company size and local institutional environment. This study has also enriched research about the influence of informal mechanisms on R&D investment of private enterprises and provided inspirations for establishing anti-corruption and enterprises' innovative promotion policies.
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    Knowledge Pricing, Profits and Coordination Research on Knowledge Closed-loop System of Industrial Cluster Ambidextrous Innovation Based on Network Power
    HAN Ying, CHEN Guo-hong, LIANG Juan
    2017, 25 (3):  68-75.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.008
    Abstract ( 1155 )   PDF (1369KB) ( 975 )   Save
    In the knowledge network of industrial cluster, the exploratory knowledge and exploitative knowledge will be sent from the knowledge supply source, through the knowledge intermediary to the users, and then form the feedback information to the knowledge source. In this paper, the knowledge closed-loop system based on the network power is studied, the differences about knowledge pricing and profits in different decision models are compared. The method of game theory and numerical simulation is used, the different decision-making behaviors under the different power networks of knowledge entity are compared. The result shows that (1) in each model, knowledge profits decreases with the increase of the preference coefficient,(2) in the decentralized decision mode, the income of knowledge source and the intermediary is related to the power, the more power, the greater the corresponding profits, and(3) the centralized decision model is the optimal decision mode, it can make the price lowest in both of exploratory knowledge and exploitative knowledge, and the system can reach the highest profits. However, this model can only be achieved through coordination mechanism. Thus the effective coordination mechanism is designed to achieve the centralized decision model and to provide beneficial enlightenment to the industrial cluster knowledge management practice. The conclusions would be helpful to enrich the knowledge closed-loop theory and popularize the application of cluster knowledge closed-loop system in reality.
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    Research on Co-evolution of Industrial Cluster Transfer and Regional Production Network and Government Behavior
    HU Li-ming, ZHAO Rui-xia
    2017, 25 (3):  76-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.009
    Abstract ( 1122 )   PDF (1603KB) ( 1271 )   Save
    The industrial cluster transfer from developed regions to underdeveloped regions is becoming the dominant way of regional industrial transfer under the background of intra-product specialization. Industrial cluster transfer is the mass of the enterprise "unity" migration behavior. It includes cluster supply network, production and sales network such as symbiosis network across regions flow. Industrial cluster transfer not only reflects and reveals the basic features of the current regional industry transfer and its intrinsic motivation but also forms a profound impact on the regional production network. Therefore, it is an important theoretical problem to be solved in regional economic management that systematically discusses industrial cluster transfer and regional production network co-evolution and analyzes the role of the government behavior in the process. In this paper, by using the basic theory of evolutionary game and research paradigm, first of all, industrial cluster transfer and regional production network collaborative evolutionary stages and government behavior are analyzed; Then under the government involvement in the transfer of the cluster evolutionary game model of enterprises and regional production network are built, the main influencing factors of the co-evolution these are discussed; Finally, system evolution stages of the numerical simulation under the government intervention are analyzed, and relevant policy implications are discussed. The results show that the cluster transfer enterprise and regional production network co-evolution contain four stages, including early-low synergy, growth-coupling development, mature period-highly collaborative and transition-differentiation restructuring; The core of mechanism on co-evolution of cluster transfer enterprises and regional production network is cost-benefit mechanism because their initial state and behavior selection strategy decide the evolution path of system. Government behavior plays an important role in evolution stages and overall evolution speed of synergy evolution. This research is an innovative exploration about the industrial transfer and regional production network theory, which can provide the reference on guiding the regional industrial transfer orderly and promoting regional industrial transformation and upgrading.
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    Consumers' Variety-Seeking and Firms' Pre-commitment Pricing
    JIANG Chuan-hai, ZHOU Tian-yi
    2017, 25 (3):  85-92.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.010
    Abstract ( 1219 )   PDF (1961KB) ( 1180 )   Save
    One can easily observe in the real life that consumers intend to be variety-seeking in many markets. For instance, in the restaurant industry, people want to go to different restaurants for various food. In the tourist industry, consumers wouldn't like to go to the same scenery spot twice because they may feel aesthetic fatigue. These phenomena also exist in the fashion industry, in which the clients pay more attention to the product experience. In these markets, people who consume the same product twice may suffer from a utility loss. This kind of loss refers to the "staying cost". Moreover, one can also observe that some firms often tend to pre-commit lower prices for regular customers by offering membership card or discount coupons in these markets. In this paper, we analyze the marketing strategy made by firms in these markets as well as the effect of this behavior on the social welfare.
    We develop a two period duopoly model based on Hotelling framework. We consider the case that firms can pre-commit special second period prices for loyal consumers. Both firms simultaneously set price as well as pre-commitments in the first period.In the second period, firms announce second period prices. At this time, loyal consumers can pay pre-commitment price, while newcomers must pay the second period price.
    In the first part, we develop a two stage model and solve the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium. The equilibrium shows that:(1) under the pre-commitment pricing scheme, firms can offer pre-commitment prices to the repeat purchasing consumers, and charge higher prices to the new ones; (2) the behavior of consumers' variety-seeking will weaken competition between firms, which lead to "tacit collusion".
    In the second part, we make welfare analysis for the equilibrium outcome. We calculate the consumer surplus, firm profits and social welfare. We find that compared with other pricing schemes, pre-commitment pricing reduces profits of firms and social welfare, but increases consumer surplus.
    In order to make our results more intuitive, we assign values to some variables to implement a numerical analysis. We offer the effect of staying cost on equilibrium in a coordinate system. We also assign different values to the staying cost so as to observe the difference between pricing strategies.
    In summary, our model can make a good interpretation for some economic phenomena and enterprises' strategic behaviors in the real economy, and further make some significant suggestions for the firms' marketing strategy.
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    Close Degree between Strategy and Project Portfolio Allocation Based on Stage Coupling
    BAI Li-biao, BAI Si-jun, ZHANG Yi-bin
    2017, 25 (3):  93-101.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.011
    Abstract ( 1007 )   PDF (1424KB) ( 1200 )   Save
    Numerous researches on the relationships between the Project Portfolio Allocation (PPA) and Corporate Strategy have been proposed Many methods have been provided to ensure the PPA hosting corporate strategic goals and the PPA is brought into correspondence with corporate strategy. However, the implementation phase of the PPA has been ignored. This causes that the influence of transform between two different phases on hosting corporate strategic goals cannot be reflected quantitatively. Additionally, it cannot provide an analysis basis for measuring the close degree between corporate strategy and the PPA which takes the coupling effect of the multiphase into account. In order to solve this problem, realize the PPA phase and corporate strategy upgrade synchronously, a model is proposed to define the phase of the PPA based on the analysis of multi-phase transition coupling, then two analytical methods based on this model have been put forward. The carrying value of strategy is made use of for all proposed components of project portfolio allocation measuring the close degree between strategy and project portfolio allocation in a phase and the effective utilization rate of objects released in tight before phase reflecting the phase transition coupling degree. Then a model for measuring the close degree between the PPA and corporate strategy based on phase coupling is constructed, providing a decision making basis for multistage coupling management of the PPA under the strategic orientation. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated and validated by a state-owned enterprise project portfolio configuration data. The results of this case show this model can measure the close degree between strategy and the PPA which takes the coupling effect of the multiphase into account between different phases effectively. In addition, the measurement can be used as a standard to help enterprise managers make the correct decision for the PPA.
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    Evolution of Strategies in Emissions Permits Auction on Small-world Networks with Learning Speed
    ZHENG Jun-jun, WANG Xiang-min, ZHU De-sheng, WANG Lu
    2017, 25 (3):  102-110.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.012
    Abstract ( 1086 )   PDF (1600KB) ( 1242 )   Save
    In order to study the effects of manufacturers' information interaction structure on their strategies evolution in emissions permits auction, the method of evolutionary games on networks is utilized and a small-world network is introduced into the analysis of auction, and a small-world network is employed to portray manufacturers' information interaction structure. Meanwhile, learning speed is integrated into the strategy updating rule. Then, eclipse is used to simulate the effects of manufacturers' information interaction structure and their learning speed on the strategies evolution. The simulation results show that, manufacturers' strategies convergence speed has a positive correlation with their learning speed and degree, but has a first positive later negative correlation with clustering coefficient as well as the number of community structure. In addition, the strategies convergence speed of manufacturers in community is faster than that of manufacturers out community. There exits an optimal network clustering coefficient and an optimal number of community structure. At last, several suggestions are provided for government and manufacturers. The conclusion of this paper is helpful for emission rights licensors to induce the bidders to offer real price and can be regarded as a reference to improve the efficiency of decision-making on both sides.
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    Products Quality Control Strategy of Supply Chain in the Condition of Three Types of Mixed Distribution Channel
    ZHU Li-long, GUO Peng-fei, SUN Shu-hui
    2017, 25 (3):  111-120.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.013
    Abstract ( 1255 )   PDF (1600KB) ( 1145 )   Save
    In this paper, Stackelberg dynamic game model is constructed and how to make a products quality control strategy when the supplier and retailer self-build and entrusting a third party builds the internet channel is analyzed. How the market proportion, supplier's profit sharing ratio, the demand price elasticity and quality cost function affect products quality control strategy in mixed distribution channel, and further influence the demand of retailing channel and internet channel, the expected profits function and consumers surplus are analyzed. The model analysis demonstrates that:with the increasing of retailing channel market proportion, the products quality level when the supplier self-builds the internet channel will be higher than that when entrusting a third party builds the interner channel and also higher than retailer self-builds the interner channel; when the supplier self-builds internet channel, the products quality level and supplier's expected profits will decrease firstly and then increase, namely U-shape; when the retailer self-builds internet channel, the demand of retailing channel and retailer's expected profits will increase; when entrusting a third party builds internet channel, the parameters depend on the threshold of supplier's profit sharing ratio. Above all, a numerical example which will indicate the further specific application direction in practice is conducted.
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    Research on the Model of Corporate's Procurement Management with the Involvement of 3PL
    ZHOU Ji-xiang, WANG Yong
    2017, 25 (3):  121-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.014
    Abstract ( 1314 )   PDF (1923KB) ( 1621 )   Save
    With the development of modern logistics, enterprises usually outsource some of their business such as procurement to the third-party logistics service provider. They make the third-party logistics service provider share the risk of uncertainty with them, and thus they can devote themselves to developing their own core business. This has become a approach and trend for the enterprise to participate in the fierce market competition. In addition, during the procurement, as the product cycle is shortened, many enterprises are increasingly tending to use the option contract to avoid the procurement risk, and it makes the option contract more and more widely applied in the supply chain. Therefore, considering the fact that the third-party logistics (3PL) participates in managing the supply chain of the enterprise is of greater realistic and theoretical significance. However, the existing literatures seldom consider the problem of 3PL jointly deciding the procurement quantity and service cost under the abovementioned assumption. On the basis of this point, in this paper, the model for a 3PL is explored to apply the option contract to manage the procurement and the model for a supplier to manage the procurement when a supplier and a 3PL form a supply chain and build the random demand respectively, and the game theory is applied to solve the equilibrium solution for the supplier and 3PL under the abovementioned conditions. Research has shown that, only under certain conditions can 3PL-managed procurement improve the profit for the retailer, 3PL and supply chain system, and only when the risk is high can the retailer own the first-mover advantage. Besides, when 3PL gives a relatively small compensation proportion to the retailer, the retailer will choose to manage the procurement by itself and be subject to the 3PL-oriented decision. As the profit of the 3PL is higher than that of the retailer-oriented decision at this time, the 3Pl will accept this strategy. The conclusion from this paper will enrich the literatures of 3PL research and be of some guiding significance to the practical operation of the retailer and 3PL.
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    Real-time Pricing Contract Bargaining Based on Demand Response in Smart Grid
    DAI Ye-ming, GAO Yan, GAO Hong-wei, JIN Feng
    2017, 25 (3):  130-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.015
    Abstract ( 1162 )   PDF (1115KB) ( 1215 )   Save
    Recent years have witnessed the new challenges that have emerged in power grid. A special challenge is represented by peaks in the power demand of customers. The most promising solution to tackle the peak demand challenge is smart grid. Since power grids have little capacity to store energy, power demand and supply must balance at all times. As a consequence, demand response has become a powerful tool to solve the power needs of different users. Price response mechanism is the main research areas of demand response in smart grid, which mainly reflects the price and real-time power demand situation through dynamic pricing. The fixed power pricing is no longer suitable for modern electricity market. Thus, real-time pricing becomes the most promising demand response method, and the large users will also face real-time pricing bargaining with electricity retailers for reflecting the response behavior of users to real-time price.In fact, under the smart grid environment,the electricity generation, transmission and distribution are separated in electricity market, power price changes according to the real-time changes of the user power demand. The real-time short-term contracts is signed for power trading between large users and power retailers to ensure short-term electricity price is relatively stable. Therefore, retailers and large user need to bargain the contract price and the contract power amount to ensure that market participants can hedge the real-time price risk in the next time. In this paper, a incomplete information real-time bargaining game model between power retailer and large user is formulated under the smart grid environment by means of Rubinstein' ideas. Both sides of the bargaining determine their own strategies by estimating bargaining costs and strategies for each other according to the last bargaining result. Eventually, the next contract power price is determined. The results of the study show that successful bargaining between the two sides is mainly related to the conversion coefficient and prediction interval of real-time power price. We know also the bargaining is successful when the conversion coefficient is in the range between 0.8 and 1. At the same time, the payoff of retailers and large users increase with the increasing of conversion coefficient. Meanwhile, it is also found that the probabilities of success will increase when parameter breduces. So an real-time power market bargaining mechanism designed effectively is not only improve the efficiency of real-time power market, but also reach more long-term contract by choosing appropriate conversion coefficient and interval parameters, so as to optimize smart grid.
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    Robust Scheduling of Unrelated Parallel Machines Subject to Stochastic Breakdowns and Controllable Processing Times
    WANG Jian-jun, LIU Xiao-pan, LIU Feng, WANG Du-Juan
    2017, 25 (3):  137-146.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.016
    Abstract ( 1155 )   PDF (1279KB) ( 875 )   Save
    Inevitable machine breakdowns always degrade the performance of the initial schedule in the practice. Considering the controllable processing time in unrelated parallel machines layout, how to generate a robust schedule to reduce the expectation value of the loss cost caused by the stochastic machine failures is studied. Therefore, a robust scheduling strategy of two nested layers is designed. In the inner layer, a nonlinear 0-1 mixed integer model is built to calculate the expectation of the loss cost. Because of the model's complexity, it is translated into second-order cone constrains for solving efficiency. In the outer layer, sorting algorithm is designed based on the job's flexibility and the probability of machine unavailability. Due to inherent complex and unstructured nature, genetic algorithm is used to optimize job's flexible parameters, and to further enhance the robustness of the initial schedule. Through randomly generated numerical experiments, It shows that the proposed scheduling strategy is robust against different disturbance cost per unit time and different mean time to repair of machine breakdown. The research has a certain reference for sorting robust schedule and optimizing job's flexible parameters.
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    Online-Offline Uniform Pricing Strategy of Multi-Channel Retailer Based on Fairness Preferences
    NIU Zhi-yong, HUANG Pei, WANG Jun
    2017, 25 (3):  147-155.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.017
    Abstract ( 1060 )   PDF (422KB) ( 1196 )   Save
    In this paper,online-offline uniform pricing strategy of the multi-channel retailer is studied.Multi-channel retailers,consisting of online and offline channel,begin to adopt the uniform price strategy on same products from different channels.For example,Suning Commerce(the biggest electronics retailer in China)announced that it would be same price of offline and online products since 2013.At the same time,some other multi-channel retailers also consider it as the important price strategy in the era of Ecommerce.In fact,puzzling because demand tends to be different across different types of marketing channel,and standard economic and marketing theory would suggest differential prices in those situations.To understand the puzzling aspect of uniform pricing strategy,it is explained based on consumers' fairness preferences.Generally,we are interested in analyzing three research questions.First,a model of fairness is presented,and it is expected the pricing strategy will arise as an equilibrium.Second,the implications of uniform pricing strategy are further understood,and if so,how the consumers' fairness can effect?Third,whether the multi-channel retailers can deviate from uniform pricing strategy and what conditions can mediate is examined?The functions of fairness preferenceθand online channel acceptanceδby consumers are emphasized.These three questions are important to multi-channel retailers because they are related with the long-run development of firms.Consumers' concern on price fairness is incorporated into a basic theoretical model and the fairness preference is defined by two types,symmetrical fairness and asymmetrical fairness.The results show that:First,a uniform price between online and offline may emerge in unique equilibrium,if consumers' concerns of price fairness are strong enough and the online channel is well accepted by consumers.Second,the multi-retailer will choose price discrimination strategy between channels if the online channel is not accepted by consumers and the fairness will not affect the price decision of retailer.Third,The asymmetrical fairness will improve the profits of retailer when she choose price discrimination and lower the profits for the uniform price strategy,it means that the fairness can mitigate the price competition between different channels.As a result,consumers' fairness preference is a mechanism for online-offline uniform pricing strategy of multi-channel retailer.There are two implications for multi-channel retailers.First,the retailers may have an incentive to adopt the uniform pricing strategy for different channels for the reason that the uniform pricing can be induced by consumers' fairness concerns may increase the total demand of all retailers.Second,the retailers with integrated channel(such as Suning)will have more incentive to accept uniform pricing,that means it may affect the equilibrium channel structure.So the uniform pricing strategy can soften competition of the different channels of retailer,and the important roles of uniform pricing should be emphasized.
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    Research on Executing State Optimization of Emergency Plan
    SHI Biao, XUE Xu-xu, CHI Hong, QI Ming-liang
    2017, 25 (3):  156-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.018
    Abstract ( 1047 )   PDF (1690KB) ( 782 )   Save
    The development of emergency has a strong uncertainty, the demand of emergency treatment will change as emergency plan executing,so the overall plan or part of the processes may not be applicable for the changed demand, it will be significant to change the executing state of those processes for improving emergency response efficiency. In order to respond to uncertainty emergency needs, considering dynamic game features between the evolution of emergencies and emergency response, the optimization problem of executing state has been studied in operational level, which can help selecting executing state in a specific moment as the emergency needs changed, and providing decision support based on real-time information to adjust for emergency contingency plans and the implementation of the process state.
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    Friend Recommendation Algorithm based on User Relations in Social Networks
    JING Nan, WANG Jian-xia, XU Hao, BIAN Yi-wen
    2017, 25 (3):  164-171.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.019
    Abstract ( 1417 )   PDF (2926KB) ( 2033 )   Save
    Due to the vast amounts of users, it is difficult for a user to make effective connections with others for common interests. Friend recommendation on online social networks, therefore, becomes a challenging research issue, which may have significant effects on sustainable developments of social networks.Most of the existing friend recommendation methods are conducted based on users' explicit information such as background, demography, interests and posts, while ignoring users' implicit information such as their social relationships. Notably, explicit information is often incomplete and not trustworthy, and cannot be appropriately used to measure user similarities.In order to effectively recommend friends, a recommendation algorithm is proposed based on user relationship information in online social networks. In the described algorithm, user relationships are characterized by using the association analysis method, and then a weighted, directed graph between network users is constructed. Based on this graph, this algorithm builds a transition matrix and uses the PageRank algorithm to calculateusers' scores that indicate the acceptance probabilities, and then recommend the users with high scores to the target user on social networks. In addition, with the consideration of the user authority in a specific social network, an enhanced friend recommendation algorithm is further developed.In order to validate the proposed approaches, friend recommendation experiments on Twitter are conducted and the users' information and their relationship data are extracted. For this purpose, two traditional methods, i.e., social filtering algorithm and the PageRank algorithm, are used to compare with the two proposed approaches based on two measures, i.e., accuracy and recall rate. Experiments results show that the proposed recommendation algorithms yield clearly better results in accuracy and recall rate than the traditional recommendation algorithms.
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    The Strategies of B2C Platform Open and Online Retailers Entry Based on Reputation
    LI Pei, WEI Hang
    2017, 25 (3):  172-180.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.020
    Abstract ( 1234 )   PDF (1818KB) ( 1028 )   Save
    In recent years, the traditional retailers are moving towards the platform model and more and more retailers begin to take hybrid model. The development of hybrid model makes it necessary to have a hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores need to decide whether to open platform, and online retailers also need to decide whether to entry the platform. Based on the reputation of retailer, a consumer utility function is built up, and the hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores whether open platform and the online retailer whether entry the platform is considered in this paper. Through the analysis and comparison of equilibrium prices and profits of the two retailers, the conditions of hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores open platform and online retailer entry the platform are given. Finally, a numerical study is conducted to analyze the relationships among the strategies of retailers, such as the cross-group network externalities of platform, the type of consumer, the reputation of retail and the cost of reputation. It is not only found that the reputation of retailer, the cross-group network externalities of platform and the cost of reputation are the most important factor to influence the choice of hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores and online retailer, but also that the proportion of online consumers, the reputation of online retailer and the cost of reputation have a negative impact on profits of hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores, and the cross-network externalities and the reputation of hybrid platform with online marketplaces and physical stores has a positive impact on its profits; in addition to the cross-group network externalities of platform have a positive impact on profit of online retailer, and the cost of reputation have a negative impact on profit of online retailer, other factors that affect the profit of online retailer are not monotonous, its profits will increase on first and then decrease.
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    CanIindustrial Collaboration Promote the Effectiveness of Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction? Based on the Research of 1052 energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction Policies
    ZHANG Guo-xing, GAO Wan-xia, ZHANG Zhen-hua, GUAN Xin, FANG Min
    2017, 25 (3):  181-189.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.021
    Abstract ( 1280 )   PDF (1439KB) ( 853 )   Save
    Energy conservation and emissions reduction is closely related to industrial development.In order to explore the best combination way of energy conservation and emissions reduction policy and industry, the 1052 energy conservation and emission reduction policies are quantified in our country from 1997 to 2013. A metric model of effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction is established, and the impact on energy conservation and emission reduction which caused by energy conservation and emission reduction policy with single industry and several industries is respectively discussed. The results show that:(1) The combination between energy conservation and emission reduction policies and single industry has promoting effect on energy conservation and emission reduction. (2) Because of the lack of effective coordination between our country' industries at present, the combination of energy conservation and emission reduction policy and industry is failed to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, even to a certain extent, will reduce the effect on energy conservation and emission reduction.These results can provide guiding significance for the government in promulgating energy conservation and emissions reduction policies. The policy issued for single industry is beneficial to promoting the effectiveness of energy conservation and emissions reduction. In practice, actively guide the benign synergy between industries can promote energy conservation and emissions reduction.
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    Research on Knowledge Transfer Cooperative Game in University-Industry Cooperation Based on Dynamic Control Model
    WU Jie, PENG Xing-xing, SHENG Yong-xiang, LI Peng, SHI Qin-fen
    2017, 25 (3):  190-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.03.022
    Abstract ( 1218 )   PDF (1600KB) ( 1032 )   Save
    In the collaboration practice among industry, universities and research institutes, universities and enterprises can influence the amount of knowledge of both sides by changing the knowledge transfer input to resolve the problem of income among industry, universities and research institutes. Universities' knowledge output and enterprises' absorptive amount can be affected at time, natural growth rate, restriction level of resource, symbiotic relationship, partner's behaviour and self behavior. In this paper, adjustments of knowledge transfer input for universities and enterprises to pursue their own maximum interest are analyzed through building dynamic control model. the objective function is calcucated, the equilibrium of cooperative game in knowledge transfer is solved and a simulation analysis in made. In this model, universities and enterprises are the control subjects. They pursue their own maximum interest by adjusting the investment of knowledge transfer. Based on the method of calculating the dynamic control model, the initial value of model parameter is gotten through the empirical research and makes a simulation. Simulation results show that universities and enterprises can adjust the investment according to the knowledge output and knowledge absorption in the system, and then affect the optimal profit ability of industry, universities and research institutes.The increase of the symbiotic effect coefficient and decrease of resource constraints levels is helpful to minimize the Nash equilibrium input and maximize the optimal profit ability. in view of this, In the process of "industry-university-institute" cooperation, universities and enterprises should adjust the investment at any time according to the knowledge output and knowledge absorption in the system to maintain production profitability at a higher level. In addition, in the process of "industry-university-institute" cooperation, universities and enterprises shall establish extensive connection, strengthen mutual exchanges between the two sides, improve the tacit understanding degree and make full use of the symbiotic effect between the two sides.
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